Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04652-6

ORIGINAL PAPER

Cause and damage analysis of 2010 flood disaster in district

Muzaffar Garh, Pakistan

Shakeel Mahmood1   · Asif Sajjad2 · Atta‑ur Rahman3

Received: 4 February 2018 / Accepted: 17 February 2021

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021

Abstract
In this paper, the causes and damages of 2010 flood disaster were analyzed in districts
Muzaffar Garh. The study area is one of the severely flood affected districts by floods in the
past. A mix research approach is applied to analyse the 2010-flood generating factors and
damages  in the study area. Primary data were acquired through questionnaires, personal
observations and Global Positioning System (GPS). Remote Sensing (RS) Landsat-7 ETM
data were obtained from USGS online database for pre- and post-flooding periods to delin-
eate the spatial extent of inundation and estimate different land covers classes with dam-
ages. Secondary data regarding Rainfall and river discharge were acquired from concerned
Government Departments. Modified Normalized Difference in Water Index (MNDWI) was
applied to extract inundation, and supervised image classification algorithm was utilized to
classify land cover into different classes. The analysis indicates that the flood was gener-
ated by extreme rainfall event in the last week of July, 2010 in the upper catchment areas
of River Indus. This generated ever highest discharge in the River Indus. As a consequence,
this disastrous flow has breached the left marginal embankment (LME) near Taunsa
barrage. Spatially, more than half of the land area was inundated. Moreover, the analy-
sis showed that the inundation incurred total estimated economic loss of about 9.85 mil-
lion US$. Out of total, the maximum damages of 4.45  million US$ were reported from
agriculture sector followed by infrastructures 3.5 million US$. This study will provide an
empirical basis for flood disaster management authorities to plan disaster response activity
and mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of potential damages. The results can also assist
decision makers to evaluate breaching points.

Keywords  Riverine Flood · Indus Basin · Causes · Damages · Landsat · MNDWI

Shakeel Mahmood and Asif Sajjad are contributed equally.

* Shakeel Mahmood
shakeelmahmoodkhan@gmail.com
1
Department of Geography, GC University Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
2
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing,
Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
3
Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

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1 Introduction

Globally, floods are considered the most devastating hazard (Rehman and Khan 2013;
Qasim et  al. 2016). Flood accounts for almost ~ 50% of all hydro-meteorological disas-
ters (Halgamuge and Nirmalathas 2017). In recent past, frequency and magnitude of dis-
astrous  floods have been increased due to climate change and further intensified by the
enchorchment of anthropogenic  activities in river proximity (Khalid et  al. 2018). Gener-
ally, floods are caused by heavy rainfall (Tariq and Giesen 2012; Mahmood et al. 2016a,
b), breaching of dams, river embankment and rapid melting of snow and glaciers (Jonkman
et al. 2008; Sajjad et al. 2019). Likewise, unplanned changes in Land use land cover and
rapid growth of settlements in the floodplains further intensify floods (Syvitski and Brak-
enridge 2013; Iqbal et al. 2018). In the last three decades, flood hazards have caused above
0.2  million human causalities and affected about 2.8 billion people with extra-ordinary
damages to their properties and economy (Lehner et al. 2006). However, human and eco-
nomic losses are higher in developing countries particularly Pakistan, India and Bangla-
desh due to poor flood management system (Jonkman 2005; Alderman et al. 2012; Hashmi
et al. 2012).
Flood is one of the most frequent hydro-meteorological hazard  in Pakistan (Sajjad et al.
2020) that have been causing severe damages to human lives, belongings and livelihoods
(Khan and Iqbal 2012; Rehman and Shaw 2015). In the year 2010, the history worst flood
was occurred due to heavy rainfall during 27th–31st July in the upper catchment of Indus
River (Mahmood et al. 2019). Consequently,  flash flooding occurred in upstream regions
and riverine flooding in the upper,  central and lower Indus Plain  and caused  about 2000
fatalities and massive economic damages (Rahman and Khan 2011; Khalid et  al. 2018).
The flood damages were uneven due to spatial variation in landscape, land use land cover
and population density (Tariq and Giesen 2012). However, it was so destructive in the cen-
tral Indus plains because of fairly flat surface with high density of population and economic
activities (Syvitski and Brakenridge 2013; Mahmood et  al. 2019).This reveals that river-
ine floods are frequently occurring and a serious problem in the district Muzaffar Garh,
that requires an effective study on flood risk assessment to assist disaster management and
flood dealing authorities in designing flood risk reduction plan. Therefore, the aim of this
study is to analyse the causes and damages of 2010 flood disaster using remote sensing and
ground-based approaches.

2 The study area

Muzaffar Garh district is located in southern part of Punjab province, Pakistan. It extends
from 70.537°E to 71.726°E longitude and 29.016°N to 30.765°N latitude (Fig.  1). The
total areas of this district is 8,250 ­km2 and administratively divided into four tehsils units
namely; Alipur Jatoi, Kot Addu, and Muzaffargarh. The total population is 4.32 million
with density of 564.1 person per ­km2, and it was 2.64 million and density of 320 person per
­km2 in 1998 census (Gop 2017).
The study area has arid and semi-arid type of climate. It can be further modified into
BWh as per Koppen climate model.The highest temperature of 50 °C is recorded in June
while the lowest 2  °C is noted in January (PMD 2012). The mean annual rainfall of157

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Fig. 1  Pakistan Location of Muzaffar Garh, Taunsa Barrage, and Breached LM Embankment

mm is recorded, and the month of July receives the highest 45 mm rainfall while October
receives the lowest rainfall of 2 mm (PMD, 2012).

3 Materials and methods

3.1 Primary data acquisition

A semi-structured questionnaire was designed including questions related to flood causes

and damages to various sectors. The questionnaires were filled from 400 affected house-
hold using random sampling techniques. GPS survey was conducted simultaneously to
acquire  the absolute location of  spatial training samples for satellite image classification
and surveyed household.
Similarly, the government officials of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD),
Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and Local Irrigation Department (LID)
Muzaffar Garh were interviewed. They were asked questions related to 2010 flood situation
in district Muzaffar Garh.

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3.2 Secondary data acquisition

Rainfall data of 26 stations were obtained from PMD, regional office Lahore. Data of
designed capacity of barrages and river discharge during 2010-flood were acquired from
Water and Power development authority (WAPDA). The damage data of irrigation canals
were obtained from LID, Muzaffar Garh. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic mapper (ETM)
images for pre-flood (19thJuly) and post-flood (20th August) were obtained from United
State Geological Survey (USGS) open source database.

3.3 Data preparation and analysis

Supervised image classifications technique was used to process image into different land
use and land cover (LULC) classes (water body, vegetation cover, built-up land and bar-
ren land) by utilizing 240 spatial training samples. The classified results were converted
into shapefile format for further change detection analysis. This change detection approach
was applied on pre-flood and post-flood classified images by using ArcGIS-based overlay
technique. MNDWI index was applied for the extraction of 2010-flood inundation. This
index has ability to calculates inundated areas effectively (Xu 2006). It uses Green and
Mid-infrared (MIR) bands, as given in following equation.
(Band2 - Band5)
MNDWI =
(Band2 + Band5)
Band 2 (Green) = 0.52–0.60  mm and Band 5 (Mid-infrared) = 1.55–1.75  mm. Green
band removes built-up area noise and shows most of the water reflectance. Low water and
high built-up reflectance in Mid-infrared band produce positive values for water body and
negative value for built-up area in resulted image which ranges from − 1 to + 1.
Rainfall data were spatially interpolated using ArcGIS-based Inverse distance weighted
(IDW) technique. The socio-economic data, river discharge data and damages data were
statistically analyse. The arithmetic mean algorithm was used to estimate economic loss of
sugar cane, rice, cotton and fodder crops per hectare (ha). The economic losses were calcu-
lated in million US dollars (US$).

4 Results and discussion

The study area is located in Central Indus Basin (CIB), where riverine floods are frequently
occurring phenomenon instigating huge economic losses. The catastrophic 2010 flood was
more destructive due to rapid population and development growth over the past few years
in Indus Plain. In this study, flood causes, extent and damages were evaluated. The follow-
ing sections are about the 2010-flood causes, flood extent and damages.

4.1 Socio‑economic characteristics of the studied population

The total surveyed population of 400 respondents is 3037 persons with 1426 male and
1611 female. The age structure of surveyed population was divided into three groups.
The age group of 20–40  years old was maximum (45%), 41–60  years old age group
was 37%, and third age group (more than 60) was 18%. Results showed that about 40%

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of the surveyed people were illiterate, 44.7% were primary, and middle passed. As per
economic condition, 46% of surveyed households heads were engaged in farming, 28%
were daily wagers, 15% were small scale shopkeeper, and only 7% were government
servants. The monthly income of surveyed population was divided into four categories.
The maximum 52% of the surveyed people monthly income was only below 170US$,
while about 26% respondent’s income was 171-300US$. In the third category, 11.5%
respondents’ income was from 301-450US$. Only 6% respondent’s monthly income
was above 450US$ which falls in fourth category.

4.2 Causes of flood‑2010

The study reveals that 2010-flood in district Muzaffar Garh occurred due to 4-day
heavy monsoon rainfall spell from 27th to 31st July, 2010 over the northwestern parts
of Pakistan. The meteorological stations including Risalpur, Dir, Saidu sharif, Cherat,
and Peshawar recorded ever highest rainfall of above 300 mm (Fig. 2). This disastrous
wet spells triggered peak discharge in River Swat, River Kabul, River Gomal and
River Panjkora that caused extensive inundation in the floodplain areas along Indus.
The flood peak of above one million cubic ft/s (cusecs) was documented at Kalabagh
and Chashma barrages. The peak was exceeding by around 86,000 cubic ft/s from the
designed capacity of Chashma Barrage, which caused severe damages. This disastrous
swollen flow continued toward Taunsa Barrage with its devastating nature.
Taunsa Barrage is located in district Muzaffar Garh with proposed carrying capac-
ity of around 1.1million cubic ft/s (Fig. 2). This disastrous flow was almost equal to its
designed capacity which may cause breaching of protection embankments and damage
to barrage structure which can further increase the catastrophic effects of 2010-flood.
Thus, the flood management department at Taunsa Barrage in collaboration with other
departments formally made decision to breach the LME, located about 12 km upstream
of Taunsa Barrage (Fig.  1). The disastrous flow overtopped the breached LME sec-
tion and entered into built-up areas and agricultural lands. The disastrous flow further
caused breaches over several locations into Muzaffar Garh and T-P link canals. The
breaching resulted huge flood inundation of about 45% area in the study and produced
damages to houses, infrastructure and agriculture crops as shown in Fig. 3.
Currently, there is no mitigation strategies present to protect the vulnerable com-
munities with their belongings. In future, if the riverine flood with same magnitude
occurs, the circumstances will be disastrous. Thus, the riverine floods can be reduced
by increasing designed carrying capacity of barrages.
The supervised classification was used to investigate LULC changes in pre-flood
and post-flood instances in the study area. The Landsat image of 19th July was used
to analyse pre-flood situation, and 20th August image was used for post-flood situa-
tion in the study area (Fig. 4). The pre-flood analysis shows that water class covered an
area of only 7%, while vegetation class covered the maximum 40% area, and built-up
and barren land covered an area of 30% and 30.03%, respectively. Likewise, Post-flood
analysis reveals that a total of 35% area was under flood water, followed by vegetation
which covers an area of 24%, whereas, the built-up and barren land covered an area of
24%22% and 19%, respectively. Both images show significant LULC changes as shown
in Fig. 4. The change detection analysis further reveals a rapid change in water class,
with an abnormal increase from 7% to 35% in post -flood image (Fig. 4b)

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Fig. 2  a Spatial pattern of rainfall spell in Pakistan during 2010-flood. Source: PMD. b flood-2010 River
discharge and designed capacity of barrages

The built-up was reduced by 8.03% in post-flood instance. Similarly, the vegetation
area was also reduced to 24%, as it was 40% in pre-flood instance, and the same situ-
ation was noticed in barren land area as reduced by 3.8% from 22.8% to 19% in post-
flood image (Fig. 4b).

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Fig. 3  MNDWI derived 2010-flood inundation in district Muzaffar Garh

4.3 Flood damage assessment in the study area

The result shows that the 2010-flood caused serious damages to socio-economic sectors.
In specific, the agriculture, infrastructure sectors were severely damaged which induced
direct implication on the well-being of affected people by pushed them into extreme
poverty level.

4.3.1 Damages to agriculture

In the study area, most of the people are engaged in agriculture crops cultivations and rear-
ing animal herds, that are the main backbone of their economy. The analysis reveals that
2010-flood destroyed ~ 2542 ha agriculture land with standing crops of sugarcane, cotton
and rice with an estimated loss of 4.45 million US$. Specifically, survey further reveals
that about ~ 749.9 ha of rice crop was damaged, which resulted an estimated loss of 1.45
million US$. Likewise, about ~ 515.1 ha of sugarcane crop was also destroyed and regis-
tered an estimated loss of 1.5 million US$. Furthermore, about ~ 240 ha agriculture land of
cotton crop was also flooded, which incurred an estimated loss of 0.6 million US$. Moreo-
ver, a total of ~ 537.4 ha fodder crops were submerged that resulted in an economic loss of
0.9 million US$ as shown in Fig. 5a. According to local respondents, the economic cost
per ha of rice crop is 1934 US$, cotton is 2325 US$, sugarcane is 2906 US$, fodder crop is
1611 US$.

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Fig. 4  a Pre- and post-flood LULC changes. b Change detection of Pre- and post-flood-2010

Analysis further revealed that the 2010-flood has affected all standing crops due to its
duration in the study area. The rice crop requires more water to cultivate but flood duration
of about one and half month has caused severe damages to rice crop. Likewise, sugarcane
and cotton crops were ready to harvest, but the extensive flood duration left no chance
to save these crops. Further survey indicates that 2010-flood also disrupted the upcom-
ing sowing season of Rabi crops, due to its extensive duration, which caused late crops

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Fig. 5  a Damaged standing crops with an estimated loss. Source: Field Survey, 2012. b Number of perished
Livestock with estimated loss Source: Field Survey, 2012

cultivation that impacted overall average production in the study area. The sensitivity of
standing and upcoming sowing crops to flood disasters is increased with the increase of
duration.
As Fig. 5b shows that about 500 livestock were reported perished which caused an eco-
nomic loss of 0.32million US$. In specific, about 151 buffalos were dead, which resulted
an economic loss of 0.18 million US$. Similarly, about 128 cows were reported lost with
an estimated loss of 0.1million US$. Moreover, 100 goats and 95 sheep were also perished
which incurred an economic loss of 0.034 million US$. The analysis showed that the sen-
sitivity of livestock increases with increasing flood duration. The average cost per buffalo
was 1177 US$, cow 824 US$, goat and sheep was 175.9 US$.

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Table 1  Damages to Canals and Irrigation canals Damaged lengths in Estimated

estimated loss. Source: Local meters loss in million
Irrigation Department, Muzaffar (US$)
Garh
Muzaffar Garh 635 0.46
T-P Link 315 0.24

4.3.2 Damages to Infrastructure

Road network is the main source of transportation, which plays a vital role in the country’s
economy. District is linked through a highway (N 70), G.T. Roads and intra-district roads.
The Highway and intra-district roads were badly damaged by 2010-flood. According to
local Works Department, about 100  km roads were damaged and incurred rehabilitation
cost of 3.5 million US$.
Agriculture in district Muzaffar Garh is entirely dependent on irrigation canals taken
out from Taunsa Barrages. Major canals are, Muzaffar Garh and Thal Panjnad (T-P) canals
which are the means of irrigation water supply in district Muzaffar Garh. According to Irri-
gation Department and field observation, 2010-flood has breached the irrigation canals in
several places and also deposited silt and other materials, which ultimately reduce the flow
carrying capacity of the canals. A total of 950 m of irrigation canals were damaged, which
resulted an estimated loss of 0.7 million US$ (Table 1).

4.3.3 Damages to houses

Brick concrete and mud houses are the main dwelling structures in the study area. Table 2
shows that 2010-flood has completely destroyed about 576 mud houses and caused an esti-
mated loss of 0.41 million US$. Likewise, about 507 mud houses were partially damaged
with an economic loss equal to 0.09 million US$. Moreover, around 270 brick concrete
houses were partially destroyed in the study area, which registered a loss of 0.18 million
US$. Similarly, about 141 brick houses were completely destroyed which resulted a loss
of 0.2 million US$ (Table  2). As per survey, the rehabilitation cost of mud house with
partially damaged is 176.5 US$, and completely damaged is 353 US$. Moreover, the reha-
bilitation cost of brick house with partially damaged is 353 US$, and completely damaged
is 706 US$. It was further revealed that majority of local respondents have monthly earning
below 170US$ in the study area, which is not allowing them to construct flood-resilient
buildings. So, a large number of damaged mud houses were reported in this study. How-
ever, an appropriate financial assistance is recommended to susceptible communities to
construct flood-resilient houses which will not collapse in such future flooding.

Table 2  Damages houses and Type of house Partially dam- Completely Estimated

estimated loss. Source: Field aged damaged loss in million
Survey, 2012 (US$)

Mud houses 338 384 0.33

Brick houses 180 94 0.25

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5 Conclusions and recommendations

The study concludes that District Muzaffar Garh is exposed to riverine floods, and the com-
munities are socially, economically and physically vulnerable to flood. In the year 2010, a
highest flood peak of about one million cubic ft/s compelled the flood authorities to breach
LME, which caused huge inundation in district Muzaffar Garh. Human settlements, infra-
structure and agricultural activities were severely affected, whereas the natives along with
their livestock took refuge at elevated places. The inundation caused total economic loss of
9.85 million US$. Agriculture sector was leading in term of maximum economic loss of
4.45millionUS$ in the study area.
The study also discloses that most of the people have monthly livelihood income lower
than 170US$. Such economic conditions make them economically vulnerable. They are
also unable to construct flood-resilient houses. This leads to physical vulnerability. Thus,
the government first protects them from floods by structural measures then backed them
with financial assistance for constructing flood-resilient houses. Similarly, about 45% sur-
veyed people are involved with agriculture sector. There is utmost need of location specific
flood risk reduction strategy.
This study disclosed the 2010-flood causes, inundation and damages in the study
area using remote sensing and ground-based approaches with jointly exploited appropri-
ate methods. Specifically, Landsat-7 images of flood instances have been processed with
Supervised classification for inundated LULC and also MNDWI index has been used for
delineation of flood inundation. Survey data have been used mainly for multi-sector dam-
age assessment. The LULC classification showed that the agriculture was the most affected
land use which correlates the survey finding. The MNDWI index result shows that severe
flood inundation in the study area remained for almost six weeks which caused further
flood damages.
The study is further recommended that the flood risk zonation is required that will for-
mulate the high, moderate and low risk zones. This will allow disaster management author-
ities to develop zone specific flood management plan. In addition, the evacuation of vulner-
able communities should be planned in low risk elevated areas. The breaching section of
embankment should be evaluated in order to meet any future emergency circumstances and
also bring the risk of flood damage at lowest level.
Finally, it is suggested to evaluate the breaching sections and select most suitable  loca-
tion for breaching to reduce potential damages.

Acknowledgements  The authors have highly acknowledged the anonymous reviewers and editor for their
precious suggestions.

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