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HMTH216 Lecture Notes
HMTH216 Lecture Notes
P. Sibanda
Topics to be covered:
Theory of Interest
Derivatives
Trading strategies involving options
Arbitrage
Binomial Option Pricing Model
Modelling Stock Price
The Black Scholes Model
This implies that the average account balance for the period of the
deposit is P and when the balance is withdrawn after the time period
t years, the principal amount P plus the interest earned Prt is
returned to the investor.
No interest is credited to the account until the time period has
elapsed.
V (t) = Pe rt.
V (t) = Pe rt (4)
Attempt Tutorial .
Financial markets are where financial contracts are bought and sold.
Markets act as the third party in all transactions. They do not set the
prices of things they merely allow the buyers and sellers to meet or
advertise products. They also perform the function of recording all
transactions and making that knowledge public, so that all
participants in the market can see the price at which things are sold.
Financial contract is a written agreement between two parties to
exchange payments according to some specified criteria. The two
parties are normally called the holder and seller.
Definition
An option is a financial contract which gives the holder the right but not
the obligation to buy or sell an asset for an agreed upon price at some
time in the future.
European call option gives the holder the right (not obligation) to buy
underlying asset at a prescribed time T for a specified (strike) price K.
European put option gives its holder the right (not obligation) to sell
underlying asset at a prescribed time T for a specified (strike) price K.
Whether you exercise your right depends on the stock price in the market
at time T:
If the stock price is above $15, say $25, you can buy the share for $15,
If the stock price is below $15, there is no financial sense to buy it.
The option is worthless.
Definition
Short selling is the practice of selling assets that have been borrowed from
a broker with the intention of buying the same assets back at a later date
to return to the broker.
This technique is used by investors who try to profit from the falling price
of a stock.
Definition
A portfolio is a range of investments held by an individual. We assume
that portfolios may contain both positive and negative positions in stocks,
bonds, call and put options.
Example
Π = 2S + 4C − 5P
So this has large positive winnings if the stock price has a large
downward movement or if the stock has a large upward movement.
Given that the investor wins both ways, it follows that the cost of
setting up such a portfolio will be relatively high.
At maturity we have
−(K − S) S < K (buyer exercises put)
Π(S, T ) =
−(S − K ) K ≥ S (buyer exercises call)
Now this contract has negative payoffs in all scenarios, so why would
you do it? Well if the payoff is always negative then the person you
sell it to will have to give you a lot of money at the start.
This means that you make money by hoping that there isn’t a large
movement up or down. As long as movements in stock price are small
you are able to charge enough at the start to still make a profit after
you have paid out any winnings at the end. This can be risky as you
tend to win small amounts very often but there is always a small
chance you might lose big and potentially go bankrupt i.e this a very
risky strategy!
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Risk
When dealing with contracts that make payments in the future there
is always a risk that you won’t get paid, even banks sometimes run
out of money!
In economics, we like to imagine that there does exist an investment
in the economy that is completely risk-free, and we can then use this
investment to compare against our options, portfolios etc.
An example is a Bond which is a contract that yields a known
amount F, called the face value, on a known time T, called the
maturity date. The authorised issuer (for example, government) owes
the holder a debt and is obliged to repay the face value at maturity
and may also make interest payments (the coupon). We will assume
in this course that the only bonds traded are those issued by
governments that can be assumed to be risk free.
short straddle
short strangle
Attempt tutorial
It is assumed that there are only three assets available in the market and
these are:
(i) The riskless asset (bank account/ riskless bond) which offers an
interest rate r per period which is considered to be constant
throughout the life of the contract.
(ii) Stock
(iii) European Call Option written over the stock with exercise price K at
maturity time T.
C0 = ∆S0 + B (7)
Cu = ∆Su + (1 + r )B (8)
Cd = ∆Sd + (1 + r )B (9)
1 h1 + r − d u − (1 + r ) i
C0 = Cu + Cd (13)
1+r u−d u−d
Equation 13 is the Binomial Option Pricing Model for the one period
market.
1+r −d u−(1+r )
Setting p = u−d and q = u−d in 13, we have,
1 h i
C0 = pCu + qCd (14)
1+r
where p and q are called risk neutral probabilities.
p is the upstate risk neutral probability.
q is the down state risk neutral probability.
Note (verify) that p + q = 1.
Definition
A stochastic process is a mathematical model for the occurrence at each
moment after the initial time of a random phenomenon.
This models the return on money invested in a risk free bank account.
µ is a measure of the average rate of growth of the asset price, also
known as the drift.
In simple models, µ is taken to be a constant, in more complicated
models, it can be a fraction of S and t.
dSt
= µdt (16)
St
which is an o.d.e that we can solve to get [Integrate both sides from 0 to t]
St = S0 e µt (17)
(i) W (0) = 0
(ii) W (t) has continuous paths.
(iii) W (t) has independent increments i.e if u ≤ v ≤ s ≤ t then
W (t) − W (s) and W (v ) − W (u) are independent.
(iv) For any times 0 ≤ s ≤ t, W (t) − W (s) is normally distributed with
mean zero and variance t − s.
Definition
Ito process: A stochastic process that can be written as
dXt = u dt + v dBt .
∂g ∂g 1 ∂2g
dYt = (t, Xt ) dt + (t, Xt ) dXt + (t, Xt ).(dXt )2
∂t ∂x 2 ∂x 2
where (dXt )2 = dXt .dXt is computed according to the rules:
Zt Zt
=µ ds + σ dBs
0 0
= µs|t0 + σBs |t0
= µt + σBt − σB0 .
= µt + σBt
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Therefore we have:
Zt
dXs
= µt + σBt (19)
Xs
0
Integrating from 0 to t :
Rt Rt s σ2
Rt
d(lnXs ) = dX Xs − 2 dt
0 0 0
Rt dXs σ2
lnXs |t0 = Xs − 2 t
0
Rt dXs σ2
lnXt − lnX0 = Xs − 2 t
0
Rt σ2
ln[ XX0t ] = dXs
Xs − 2 t
0
Zt
dXs Xt σ2
= ln[ ] + t. (20)
Xs X0 2
0
Three assets are available in the financial market and these are
riskless bond/bank account whose unit price A(t) = At at time t is
driven by the equation
dA(t) = rA(t)dt
Π(t) = C − ∆St
∂C 1 ∂2C ∂C
+ σ 2 St2 2 + rS − rC = 0
∂t 2 ∂S ∂S