From this week’s learning subjects, we start understanding the randomness and probability.

Clarifying the meaning of trial

(experiment), outcome and event clearly would help us understand probability well. Conditional probability is the key to fully
accept the ideas of contingency table, joint probability, marginal probability and probability tree. You may have realized the
importance of conditional probability when we explained the applications of Bayes’s Rule. There are two main basic methods to estimate
probability: classical (theoretical) probability and empirical probability. Theoretical method is based on the classical model and empirical method is based
on the frequency of the event appeared in certain number of trials. Empirical probability comes from experience and it approaches to the classical
probability when the number of trial gets bigger and bigger. It is stated by the Law of Large Numbers which gives you the idea about the relationship
between frequency and probability. A series of probability rules tell us the relationship of probabilities among some related events. Please make sure that
you understand the following rules and know how to apply them.
It is important to understand the relationship between events. It’s good to clarify the difference between “mutually exclusive events” and “independent
events”. We should be aware the meaning of joint event and union event. The following rules are often applied for calculating probabilities.

➢ Special addition rule, General addition rule,

➢ Special Multiplication rule, General multiplication rule
➢ Complement rule
➢ Bayes’s Rule Recognizing conditional probability is the key for solving problems.

There are many reference files on Blackboard to help you understand some concepts better. The lecture videos on YouTube
covered most subjects of our course. You can always check them to help yourself if you have some difficulties. I hope that
your learning is still on the track. Learning can happen in many different ways, especially in the digital time now. Please
work on the corresponding homework assignments on StatLab to practice the ideas you have learned. If you do feel
some challenge to understand some concepts or ideas, you should discuss your problems and concerns with me.
The fall color this years is quite spectacular. You should go outdoor to enjoy the beautiful nature when you can.
The colorful season will be over soon. Seeking the joyful moment from the nature is same as
feeling the joyful moment when we solve a statistical problem.