Power demand analysis,

forecast and planning

3.4.4- Power demand analysis and forecast
3.4.6 Concept of load, load curve, capacity factor, load factor, and utilization factor
3.4.7 Power demand variation (daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual)

Sanjeeb Baral
JS, MoEWRI
 Hydropower planning
Hydropower planning is initial stage of work of hydropower development. The planning mainly involves the estimation of
present demand, forecasting for future and generation of alternative energy sources and combination of them to meet
the demand. The different sources of energy sources available within country are analyzed and development plan for
optimum benefit is planned.
• In Nepal, there is huge hydropower potential and small percentage of it is utilized to date. So main and cheaper source
of energy shall be from hydropower and other sources such as thermal, solar, wind are only for power system
optimization and to meet the peak demand. So the generation planning of the hydropower projects involves the
following factors:
• Load forecasting based on different economic growth scenario. The energy consumption is purely function of the
economic condition of the country. So the future load should be estimated based on the economic growth of the
country, future industrial development plan and other factors.
• Generation planning to meet the future demand is based on the least cost generation expansion plan. The planning
should be focused for to develop hydropower projects in lowest possible cost.
• Generation planning is done considering the following factors:
• Load center: The hydropower projects near the major load center should be given high priority. This result low cost for transmission line
development and other development cost will be reduces due to accessibility.
• Regional balance: The hydropower projects should be planned based on the regional balance. This will result the balanced regional
development, as the hydropower project development opens other development activities.
• Available infrastructure: The projects having infrastructures such as transmission line and access road should be given first priority as this
reduce the project cost.
• Cheaper projects first: The totals cost and per MW project cost vary project to project in hydropower projects. The cost of high head
project cost shall obviously cheaper than the low head projects. So the project having lower cost should be developed first.
• The planning process shall involve the different sequential process which consist of Identifying the problems and opportunities,
inventorying and forecasting conditions, formulating alternative plan, evaluating alternative plan, comparing alternative plans, and finally
selecting the plan
 Power system planning
• The power system planning includes
• Generation expansion plan - hydropower project generation planning
• Hydropower and other source generation plan – optimum mix between different source of energy (Thermal, solar
wind etc)
• In Hydropower – run of river, peaking runoff river and storage project planning. The ration of the different type of
projects for power system operation to meet the load.
• Transmission line planning – the proper transmission line network planning at different voltage level to evacuate the
generated power
• Load forecasting, load management, demand side management etc.
• The power grid should be planned to cater the maximum demand or peak load. The demand may vary time to time
based on the different situations of the country (industrialization, energy consumption pattern, affordability, culture
etc). The load may be divided into base load and peak load. The peak load may be daily, monthly or yearly peak.
• In the power system (Grid) planning, the two major planning are base load planning and peak load planning. In a
power production mix of thermal, hydropower and nuclear source are planned considering two aspects.
• Proper generation mix (percentage of each type of facility) or optimum mix or optimum benefit in nominal cost. For example, if we
have three system, the cost of production of each system is analyzed and optimum combination is calculated.
• The operation of various power stations to meet the demand of load.
• For the case of Nepal, there is only 53.4M of thermal plant and one 92MW storage plant in INPS. The majority of
energy supplied through the RoR power plant. So combination of thermal, solar, storage, PRoR and RoR plant to
meet the load is only one option for power system planning.
• In INPS RoR projects function as a base load power stations and storage and thermal plant is peaking load stations.
 Demand/Load forecasting
• The load forecasting is the method of estimating peak load of future year. The
load forecasting is done based on the consumption of previous year. In Nepal’s
system, the load consumption is suppressed type of load forecasting is
suppressed load forecasting.
• The load increase is function of the economic condition of the country. Higher
the affordability of the people, higher the incremental increase in load.
• So the load forecast is generally done in three scenario a. low growth scenario
b. average growth scenario and, c. high growth scenario.

• Methods of forecasting
• Class wise consumption
• Mathematical consumption
• Historical trends
• Correlation between power development and economic development
Prediction of load
• The load prediction or forecasting may be for
• Covering of 4 to 5 years - short –term (For the area of deficit or surplus
power for operation planning)
• Covering of 8 to 10 years - medium –term (For expansion programme of
power generation transmission facilities)
• Covering a period of about 20 years or more - long term (For the
formulation of the country's perspective plan for power generation)

Prediction significance
• The total amount of load that would be required to meet various purposes
changes with time, so prediction or forecasting of load is very essential.
Since the gestation period of HP project is 10-15 years, the full potential of
the project is developed in stages.
• The demand forecast is very useful to prepare the hydropower
development plan (energy plan)
Fiscal Year Energy (GWh) System Peak Load (MW)

2010-11 4,430.70 967.10

2011-12 4,851.30 1,056.90
2012-13 5,349.60 1,163.20
2013-14 5,859.90 1,271.70
2014-15 6,403.80 1,387.20
2015-16 6,984.10 1,510.00
2016-17 7,603.70 1,640.80
2017-18 8,218.80 1,770.20
2018-19 8,870.20 1,906.90
2019-20 9,562.90 2,052.00
2020-21 10,300.10 2,206.00
2021-22 11,053.60 2,363.00
2022-23 11,929.10 2,545.40
2023-24 12,870.20 2,741.10
2024-25 13,882.40 2,951.10
2025-26 14,971.20 3,176.70
2026-27 16,142.70 3,418.90
2027-28 17,403.60 3,679.10

• The energy in GWh and peak load in MW forecasted for Nepal as per
annual report of NEA and annual increase in annual peak load
Nepal’s Domestic Peak Power demand growth
under different scenarios
7000
Base case:
6000 Similar to NEA’s plan up to 2020
and linearly extrapolated to 2025.
5000 AAGR is about 8%
Peak Load, MW

4000
Medium Case:
GDP growth is 1% point higher
3000 than the base case. AAGR is
about 9.3%
2000
High growth Case:
1000 Growth rate of 10% during 2006-2010,
12% in 2011-2015 and 15% in 2016-
0 2025.
2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024
Base Case Medium Growth High growth
 Load Curve
• Load curve is graph of load consumption w.r.t
any time.
• this curve gives an indication of power used
(for various purposes like domestic,
commercial, industrial etc) at any time. The
unit of electrical energy for consumption is
kilowatt-hour. One kWh is called a unit in
common language. The quantum of load used
at various hours of a day may vary depending
upon the requirement of consumption.

• Generally the load curve is daily load curve, weekly load curve,
monthly load curve and yearly load curve.
• The curve of Load consumption with respect to daily time scale gives
the daily load curve which is shown in figure.
• In a daily load curve, the demand may reach the highest value is known as daily peak
load or the highest peak load of the day or daily peak demand. And the peak load of the
peak day of the year gives the peak load or yearly peak demand.
• Peak demand
• Peak demand is used to refer to a historically high point in the sales record of a particular
product. In terms of energy use, peak demand describes a period of strong consumer
demand.
• Peak load
• The highest demand in a day is called the peak load. The load is defined as that part of
the load carried at intensity greater than 4/3 times the mean load intensity.
• Peak demand, peak load or on-peak are terms used in energy demand management
describing a period in which electrical power is expected to be provided for a sustained
period at a significantly higher than average supply level. Peak demand fluctuations may
occur on daily, monthly, seasonal and yearly cycles. For an electric utility company, the
actual point of peak demand is a single half hour or hourly period which represents the
highest point of customer consumption of electricity.
• Base load:- The load which is continuously exceeded during that time period. For daily
load curve, minimum load within a day is called base load for that particular day. For
monthly load curve, the minimum load in particular month is called base load.
• Average load:- Average load is defined as the average consumption over a defined time
period. Area under the load curve divided by time gives the average load.
Daily load curve of Nepal
 Energy Demand Management (Demand side
management- DSM)
• Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), entails
actions that influence the quantity or patterns of use of energy consumed by end users,
such as actions targeting reduction of peak demand during periods when energy-supply
systems are constrained.
• Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption but
could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants.
• Management of load variation
• Reducing peak loads
• Use of efficient materials during the peak time – CFL lights
• Restricting the high load equiments during the peak time
• Restricting industry during peak time and give incentives to run during off peak hours (mid
nights) - shifts
• Increasing off peak loads
• Awareness – training, captaining, changing behavior
Power demand variation (daily, weekly,
monthly, seasonal, and annual)
• Power system is dominated by houseold demand so demand variation
is based on consumption pattern of households.
• More industry – in different shift (most preferably 24 hr- and if major
percentage is from industry- low variation)
• Same tariff throughout the day, throughout the year.
• No incentive mechanism if used in off time ( people can cook food,
use pump to lift water and so on.. at midday if electricity price is 75%
subsidized at that time)
• Daily variation – day and night
• Weekly variation – in some festivals, occasions etc
• Winter – colder so people use more heater, AC so demand is more…
Load Factor
Demand factor
Capacity Factor (Plant Factor)
Availability Factor
Power Factor
• The load on a hydropower plant varies from minimum of 10MW to 35
MW. Two turgo generator of capacities 22MW installed capacity have
been installed. Calculate load factor, plant factor and utilization factor.
• In a hydropower plant of installed capacity 100MW, 42GWh energy is
produced in one month. What is the capacity factor of that plant? If
the maximum load on the plant during that period is 80MW, what is
the load factor?
In One months, 42 GWh energy is produced, whereas from installed capacity the plant
can produce – 100x30x24MWh energy. So plant capacity is monthly energy produces
by maximum energy that can be produces in that month.
4-6: A run-off river plant operates at 25 percent load factor (LF) with an installed capacity of
1.6 x 104 kW when it works as a peak load plant. Find the minimum flow rate in the stream so
that it may serve as base load plant. The efficiency and head are 85 per cent and 20 m
respectively. Find also maximum LF of the plant when Q = 35 m3/sec.
4-7(P-86) An isolated power station has to supply the following loads on an average
day. Draw the load duration curve and calculate the daily load factor. What will be the
plant capacity factor and utilization factor if it has reserve capacity of 1000KW?
11pm to 5am to 6am to 7am to 9am to 12am to 1pm to 5pm to 7pm to 9pm to
Time 5am 6am 7am 9am 12am 1pm 5pm 7pm 9pm 11pm
Load (KW) 500 750 1000 2000 2500 1500 2500 2000 2500 1000
Time Hour Load (KW) Energy (KWh)
11pm to 5am 6 500 500x6 = 3000
5am to 6am 1 750 750x1 = 750
6am to 7am 1 1000 1000x1 = 1000
7am to 9am 2 2000 2000x2 = 4000
9am to 12am 3 2500 2500x3 = 7500
12am to 1pm 1 1500 1500x1 = 1500
1pm to 5pm 4 2500 2500x4 = 10000
5pm to 7pm 2 2000 2000x2 = 4000
7pm to 9pm 2 2500 2500x2 = 5000
9pm to 11pm 2 1000 1000x2 = 2000
∑= 38750 KWh