Chapter 4: Investigating and modelling time series

Time Series
Purpose: to see how some quantity changes over time. EV is always time.
Features:

 A connected scatterplot
 Horizontal axis (EV) is time (eg hours, days, weeks, months, years)
 Instead of time (eg Jan 2020, Feb 2020, Mar 2020…), we use time codes (1, 2, 3…)

Constructing a time series graph on the CAS

Example

Step 1: Label time periods Step 2: Input data

Assign the time periods numbers: 1, 2, 3, …

Step 3: Scatterplot Step 4: Connect dots

Time is EV Menu > 2: plot Properties > 1: Connect Data
Points

1
 Patterns
When looking at time series, we can look for:

1. Tren 2. Cycle 3. Seasonality 4. Structural 5. Possible 6. Irregular or

d change outliers random
fluctuations
There may be multiple that apply.

Trend Cycle
 Periodic movement over a period greater than 1
year.

Seasonal Structural
 Periodic movement that has a calendar related period  A sudden change
(eg year, month, week)
 Similar to cyclical data
but over a smaller
time period

Possible Outliers Irregular fluctuations

 All variations that
cannot be reasonably
attributed to other
causes.
 Unsystematic, short
term fluctuations

Ex 4A Q2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11-13