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Module 5 Forecasting PDF Free
Module 5 Forecasting PDF Free
The moving average with weight is the better than the three year moving average method
because the error is less than 20.3
ABS
1
3.33
1.67
3.33
1.67
1
0.67
1.33
=
14
ge method
5-19
Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown
steadily during the past 5 years:
The Exponentially
Reforecast a
Week Calls Smoothed Forecast
= 0.6.
a= 0.1.
1 50 50.00 50.00
2 35 50.00 50.00
3 25 48.50 41.00
4 40 46.15 31.40
5 45 45.54 36.56
6 35 45.48 41.62
7 20 44.43 37.65
8 30 41.99 27.06
9 35 40.79 28.82
10 20 40.21 32.53
11 15 38.19 25.01
12 40 35.87 19.00
13 55 36.28 31.60
14 35 38.16 45.64
15 25 37.84 39.26
16 55 36.56 30.70
17 55 38.40 45.28
18 40 40.06 51.11
19 35 40.05 44.44
20 60 39.55 38.78
21 75 41.59 51.51
22 50 44.93 65.60
23 40 45.44 56.24
24 65 44.90 46.50
25 85 46.91 57.60
Average
Year Average
Seasonal Demand Year 3
Quarters Year 1 Year 2 1&2 Season
Index for Next Demand
Average Demand
Year
Fall Quarter 200 250 225 250 0.9 300 270
Winter Quarter 350 300 325 250 1.3 300 390
Spring Quarter 150 165 157.5 250 0.63 300 189
Summer Quarter 300 285 292.5 250 1.17 300 351