A DECISION TREE MODEL TO PREDICT WINNERS IN A

FOOTBALL MATCH

A Capstone Project submitted in partial fulfilment of the

requirements for the award of the degree of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

By

Neharika Kamath
Register No: 2127022

Under the guidance of

Lakshmi Shankar Iyer, Ph. D.

School of Business and Management

Christ (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru
April 2023

DECLARATION
 I, Neharika Kamath, do hereby declare that the project entitled ‘A Decision Tree Model to
Predict Winners in a Football Match’ has been undertaken by me for the award of the degree of
Master of Business Administration. I have completed this study under the guidance of Lakshmi
Shankar Iyer, Head of Specialization, Business Analytics, School of Business and Management,
CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru.

I declare that this project has not been submitted for the award of any degree, diploma,
associateship or fellowship or any other title in this University or any other University. I also
declare that the project is an original work and not an adoption of any other project/work.

Place: Bengaluru (Name & Signature of the Candidate)

Date: Neharika Kamath
Register No: 2127022

ii
 CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project submitted by Ms. Neharika Kamath entitled ‘A Decision
Tree Model to predict the winners of Foot Ball Match’ is a record of work done by her during the
academic year 2022-23 under my guidance and supervision in partial fulfillment of Master of
Business Administration. This project has not been submitted for the award of any degree, diploma,
associateship or fellowship or any other title in this University or any other University.

Place: Bengaluru (Name & Signature of the

Guide)
Date: Lakshmi Shankar Iyer, Ph.D.

iii
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am indebted to many people who helped me accomplish this project successfully.

First, I thank the Vice Chancellor Dr Fr Abraham V M of CHRIST (Deemed to be
University), Bengaluru for giving me the opportunity to do my project.
I thank Prof. Georgy Kurien, Associate Dean, Prof. Sirish C Venkatagiri, Head of the
Department, (Central campus), (OR) Prof. Jeevananda S, Associate Dean, Prof. Krishna M C, Head
of the Department, (Kengeri campus), Prof. Lakshmi Shankar Iyer, Head of Specialization,
Business Analytics of School of Business and Management for their kind support.
I thank Lakshmi Shankar Iyer, for her support and guidance during the course of my project.
I remember her with much gratitude for her patience and motivation, but for which I could not have
submitted this work.
I thank my parents for their blessings and constant support, without which this project would
not have seen the light of the day.

Neharika Kamath
2127022

iv
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(Times New Roman, 12, Single Space, 200 words)

Purpose – The project aims to clarify the relationship between organizational structures and
individual brand supporting behavior. It proposes modeling the social transformation process and
outlining why and how leadership is important throughout the internal brand building process. The
study aims to expand the domain of corporate branding by including a broader range of human
resource and leadership-related aspects than is normally found in the branding literature.

Design/methodology/approach – The project opted for an exploratory study using the

open-ended approach of grounded theory, including 30 depth interviews and one expert group
discussion with employees representing middle and senior management having mainly a marketing
and corporate communications background. The data were complemented by documentary analysis,
including brand documents, descriptions of internal processes, and copies of employee magazine
articles.

Findings – The project provides empirical insights about how change is brought about
during internal brand building. It suggests that successful leaders act as “integrating forces” on two
levels: integrating the elements of corporate identity structures, and mediating between the
corporate branding structures and the individual.

Practical implications – The project includes implications for the development of a

powerful brand image, the development of “brand ambassadors” and for managing the balance
between stability and change.

Originality/value – This project fulfills an identified need to study how brand-supportive

behaviour can be enabled.

Keywords: Brand management, corporate branding, Leadership, Social change

v
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Declaration ii
Certificate iii
Acknowledgements iv
Executive Summary v
Table of Contents vi
List of Tables viii
List of Figures ix
Abbreviations x
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT 1
1.2 PURPOSE OF THE PROJECT 4
1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PROJECT 4
1.4 RESUME OF SUCCEEDING CHAPTERS 5
CHAPTER II
BACKGROUND STUDY
2.1 INTRODUCTION 7
2.2 COMPILATION OF STUDIES CONDUCTED 8
2.3 CONCLUSION 20
CHAPTER III
PROJECT APPROACH
3.1 INTRODUCTION 22
3.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 22
3.3 OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF THE VARIABLE
UNDER INVESTIGATION 23
3.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT 26
3.5 TOOLS ADOPTED FOR THE PROJECT 27
3.6 TECHNIQUES ADOPTED FOR THE PROJECT 28
3.7 LIMITATIONS OF THE PROJECT 40
3.8 CONCLUSION 41
vi
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
4.1 INTRODUCTION 74
4.2 EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS 75
4.3 DATA PRE-PROCESSING 84
4.4 MODEL BUILDING 85
4.5 TESTING AND VALIDATION 86
4.5 DISCUSSION 87
CHAPTER V
FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
5.1 FINDINGS 88
5.2 CONCLUSION 90
5.3 SUGGESTIONS 91
5.4 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER WORK 95
BIBLIOGRAPHY 97
APPENDIX 98

LIST OF TABLES

S No Title Page No

Table 4.1 Share price performance on stock splits or bonus issues 77

Table 4.2 CAAR across different event windows 78
Table 4.3 Paired t-Test for Pre & Post Bonus Announcement AAR 79
Table 4.4 Paired t-Test for Pre & Post Stock Splits Announcement 80
AAR
Table 4.5 t-value for Cross sectional AR for Event Window (Bonus 81
Issue)
Table 4.6 t-value for Cross sectional AR for Event Window (Stock 82
Splits)
Table 4.7 Chi-Square Test Results 83

vii
 LIST OF FIGURES

S No Title Page No

4.1
4.2

viii
 ABBREVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development Bank

ANOVA Analysis of Variance
ATM Automated Teller Machine
B2B Business to Business
B2C Business to Consumer
BL Market Value of Firm's Debt
BSE Bombay Stock Exchange
CCEA Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
CEO Chief Executive Officer
COP Coefficient of Performance
D Value of Used Debt
D/E Debt Equity Ratio
DC Development Commissioner
DESIGN Design Clinic Scheme for Design Expertise to MSME’s Manufacturing
Sector

ix
 CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION
(Spacing, before and after 0, line spacing 0, at-least 0.8, Center, Bold. Upper Case)
(N.B.: This page should not be numbered nor counted)
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Apart from big industries, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs from now on) also
contribute to the expansion of the directly productive sector in the economy, generating tax
revenue for the government, helping poverty reduction through fiscal transfers and creation
of income from employment as well as ownership of firms. It is imperative for SMEs in
developing countries to be able to finance their activities and grow over time if they are to
play an increasing role in providing employment and income in terms of wages to
households, profits, as well as dividends to investors.
To understand how firms in developing countries, particularly SMEs, finance their
operations, it is necessary to examine the determinants of their capital structure and the
decisions on finance. A wide range of policy issues affect the financial decisions of
companies. At the macro level, they have implications for capital market development,
interest rate, security price determination and regulation. At the micro level, such decisions
affect capital structure, corporate governance and overall development of the company
(Green, 2002). Knowledge about capital structure has mostly been derived from data
pertaining to developed economies that have many institutional similarities (Booth,
Aivazian, Demirguc-Kunt, and Maksimovic, 2001). It is important to note that different
countries have different institutional arrangements, mainly with respect to their tax and
bankruptcy codes, mergers and acquisition and securities market. There are also differences
in social and cultural issues apart from the levels of economic development. These
differences actually give a warning to take a thorough look at the issue of
 CHAPTER II

BACKGROUND STUDY
2.1 INTRODUCTION

Background Study is an important link between the research proposed and the studies
already done. It tells us about aspects that have already been established or concluded by
other authors, and gives a chance to appreciate the evidence that has been collected by
previous research, and thus project the current research work in the proper perspective.
Review of literature is also important to highlight differences in opinions, contradictory
findings or evidences, and the different explanations given for their conclusions. In some
cases, an analysis of these factors can help one understand many facets of a complex issue
and at other times such analysis can lead to new possibilities that can be researched upon
in the current project. Sometimes, if the research proposed by one has already been
undertaken earlier, it provides an option for modifying the work by adding a new
perspective or altering some of the methods of research to obtain a perspective that will be
different from earlier works and thus more valuable. Occasionally, the work may be an
exact repetition of the work done earlier but with a different set of data or sources of facts;
then the purpose of the research may be just to relate if the results are similar to earlier
works or otherwise. Thus, review of literature is a very important part of one's research.
Over the past four decades, most of the studies on corporate finance have rotated
around different theories that try to fully explain the factors behind financing policy and
capital structure. These theories cover various aspects of the firm that can explain how
firms choose their capital structure. The current chapter presents a comprehensive review
of theoretical and empirical literature on capital structure and finance of SMEs. Section
2.2 covers review of theoretical literature. Section 2.3 is devoted to theoretical prediction
of variables that have been found by a large organization.

7
 CHAPTER III

PROJECT
METHODOLOGY
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Research is the journey from known to unknown or from problem to solution.
Research methodology refers to the design of the study method and processes by which data
is gathered for a research project. It includes the blueprint for the collection, measurement,
and analysis of data to achieve the objectives of a research project. Research methodology is
important in a research work because it specifies the research design. Here the researcher
explicitly defines the operational definitions of the concepts used in the research and defines
the variables that have been included in the study. Research methodology is also important
in a research work because it also specifies the sampling design. The researcher also defines
the target population and the sampling method used. The researcher also provides the
rationale for choosing a specific sampling method. Additionally, the researcher identifies the
data collection method. This could be self-administered questionnaires, postal surveys, or
interviews. Finally, the researcher focuses on the limitations of the research. The researcher
identifies significant methodology or implementation problems such as sampling errors,
response and non-response errors and the constraints of cost and time. This chapter attempts
to explain the survey at hand in terms of the study area, the study unit and the population.
Further, the chapter highlights the organization and design of the questionnaire as well as the
methods of data collection and data analysis. The data collection instrument employed in the
investigation, the administration of the instrument as well as their reliability and validity are
also described. Finally, the chapter examines the different statistical tests used to analyze the
gathered data, the reliability, and the validity of the results as well as the limitations in the
collection of the data.

22
 CHAPTER IV

DATA ANALYSIS
AND
INTERPRETATION
4.1 INTRODUCTION
In the background of the methodology of the study outlined in chapter 3 and the
overview of Indian SME sector in chapter 4, the researcher presents a micro analysis of the
determinants of capital structure and finance of SMEs in this chapter. The plan of the
chapter consists of: an analysis of secondary data in part one; profile of respondents of the
sample survey in part 2; and finally, an analysis of primary data in part 3.

4.2 SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS

For the present study, secondary data on manufacturing and service SMEs was
accessed from the Prowess database. Initially by giving the search option in the Prowess
data base adhering to the definitions of an SME as specified in chapter 4 (refer to section
4.2, p. 88) the researcher has obtained financial statement of 6592 manufacturing and 1798
service-based SMEs. But due to lack of consistency of those data and keeping in view the
potential variables influencing capital structure, the relevant data pertaining to 1634
manufacturing and 364 service SMEs, for a period of 5 years (2006 – 2010), is used for the
study. The lack of consistency of the data was mainly because of the following reasons:
1. Data gaps in some enterprises;
2. Few companies were new; and
3. Some companies had been closed down.
Unfortunately, this drastically reduced the sample available for secondary data
analysis.

4.2.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF THE SECONDARY DATA (Times of Roman 12)

The following table depicts the descriptive statistics of the secondary data of
manufacturing and service SMEs.

74
 CHAPTER V

FINDINGS, CONCLUSION
AND SUGGESTIONS
5.1 INTRODUCTION
In this chapter the findings from the study are presented in the light of the proposed
research objectives. In the above background, the theoretical and methodological
contributions made by this study to the existing body of literature are also presented.
Following these the managerial and policy implications of the study are also highlighted.
The chapter then concludes by presenting the limitations of the present study and
suggestions for future research.

5.2 DISCUSSION OF PROJECT FINDINGS

The main goal of the study is to examine the factors that determine the capital
structure and finance of SMEs in the Indian context and assess the applicability of financial
theories of capital structure to SMEs. The study also sets out to examine whether other
theoretical perspectives could be utilized to explain the capital structure decisions of Indian
SMEs.

5.2.1 FINDINGS RELATED TO SMEs’ CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Factors Affecting SMEs’ capital Structure

● From the selected determinants of Capital Structure of SMEs (profitability, liquidity,

NDTS, size, dividend, growth, investment, uniqueness, government policy, collateral,

default risk and effective tax rate), for both manufacturing and service SMEs,
profitability is found to be the most important factor.

● Similarly, for profitability as a determinant at L 1, industry growth is the common

consistent factor among both types of SMEs at L 2.

● For liquidity as a determinant of SMEs’ capital structure at L 1, for both types of SMEs,

debtor’s turnover is the most important factor at L 2.

● It is noted from the study that for all types of SMEs, leverage is the most consistent

factor in the case of NDTS as a determinant of capital structure.

 74

REFERENCES
 REFERENCES

Abor, J., &Biekpe, N. (2007).Small business reliance on bank financing in Ghana.Emerging

Markets Finance and Trade, 43(4), 93 - 102.
Adedeji, A. (1998). Does the pecking order hypothesis explain the dividend payout ratios of firms
in the UK? Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 25(9 & 10), 1127 - 1155.
Alan, A., &Danbolt, J. (2000). Capital Structure and its Determinants in the U.K. Department of
Accounting and Finance University of Glasgow, Working Paper G12 8LE.
Alexander, V. D., Thomas, H., Cronin, A., Fielding, J., & Moran-Ellis, J. (2008). Mixed methods.
In: Gilbert, N. (Ed.) Researching social life. London: Sage.
Allen, D. E. (1993). The pecking order hypothesis: Australian evidence. Applied Financial
Economics, 3(2), 101-112.
Alti, A. (2006). How persistent is the impact of market timing on capital structure? Journal of
Finance, 61, 1681-1710.
Ang, J. S. (1992). On the theory of finance for privately held firms. The Journal of Small Business
Finance, 1(3), 185-203.
Ang, J. S. (1991). Small business uniqueness and the theory of financial management. The Journal
of Small Business Finance, 1(1), 1-13.
 APPENDIX

Table & figures

(If copied/ referred from somewhere else)
Table 2.1
Main elements influencing capital structure

 Elements Equity preference Debt preference

Market elements High interest rates Low interest rates
Scarce financial resources Capital very available
Higher stock price Low stock price
Industry elements New industry Mature industry
Growing Declining
High risk Low risk
Source: Sheehan and Graham, (2001), p. 5.

(Space single, Times of Roman 12),

(Source: Times of Roman 10, Specify the Author, Year and Page)

Figure 4.1: Product groups of MSMEs

Source: MSMEs: Annual Report 2010-11, p. 24.

(Space single, Times of Roman 12),
(Source: Times of Roman 10, Specify the Author, Year and Page)

(If made by own)

Table 5.4
ANOVA table for manufacturing and service SMEs

Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F p

Regression 15764.014 10 1576.401 1800.535 .000
1 Residual 1420.966 1623 0.876

Total 17184.98 1633

Regression 15573.39 10 1557.339 2539.806 .000
2 Residual 216.45 353 0.613
Total 15789.84 363
Source: Secondary Data.
(Specify the data source)