A PROPOSAL

ON
DEVELOPMENT OF CHILDHOOD ASTHMA PREDICTION MODEL
USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SVM)

BY

OLADEJO MOTUNRAYO IYANU

FPA/CS/21/3-0046

SUPERVISED BY
DR. FELE TAIWO

A PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE, SCHOOL OF SCIENCE

AND COMPUTER STUDIES,

IN PARTIAL FUFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE

AWARD OF HIGHER NATIONAL DIPLOMA (HND) IN
COMPUTER SCIENCE

MARCH, 2023

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 ABSTRACT
Asthma is a disease which attacks the lungs and that affects people of all ages. Asthma
prediction is crucial since many individuals already have asthma and increasing asthma
patients is continuous. Machine learning (ML) has been demonstrated to help individuals
make judgments and predictions based on vast amounts of data. Because web applications are
widely available, it will be highly beneficial to individuals if they can receive therapy through
a simple app. In this study, the machine learning approach is utilized to determine whether or
not a person is affected by asthma. Besides, a python desktop application is being created to
give therapy based on machine learning predictions. To collect data, we enlisted the help of
very large people. The researcher shall collect information on different asthma-related
characteristics. The study shall utilize eight robust machine learning algorithms to analyse this
dataset. We will test that the Support Vector Machine classifier would be the best
performance, out of the algorithms, with an accuracy that is more preferable. TensorFlow will
be utilized to integrate machine learning with python application.

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 INTRODUCTION
Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the airways characterized by an

obstruction of airlow, which may be completely or partially reversed with or without specific

therapy (Porsbjerg et al., 2020). Airway inflammation is the result of interactions between

various cells, cellular elements, and cytokines. In susceptible individuals, airway

inflammation may cause recurrent or persistent bronchospasm, with symptoms like

wheezing, breathlessness, chest tightness, and cough, particularly at night or a exercise.

Asthma is a disease with polymorphic phenotype affected by several environmental

and genetic factors which both play a key role in the development and persistence of the

disease (Porsbjerg et al., 2020). Among these factors’ family history of asthma, presence of

atopic dermatitis or allergic rhinitis, wheezing episodes during childhood, maternal smoking

during pregnancy, and several prenatal and environmental factors are included (Tolomeo, et

al., 2021).

Most children who suffer from asthma develop their first symptoms before the 5th year of

age (Tolomeo, et al., 2021). However, it is difficult to discriminate asthma from other

wheezing disorders of the childhood because the symptoms are similar. thus, children with

asthma may often be misdiagnosed as having a common cold, bronchiolitis, or pneumonia.

For the diagnosis of asthma a detailed medical history and physical examinational on with a

lung function test is usually required. On the other hand, lung function test is hard to be

performed in children younger than five years old.

In preventive medicine, the value of a test lies in its ability to identify those individuals

who are at high risk of an illness and who therefore require intervention while excluding

those who do not require such intervention. he accuracy of the risk classification is of

particular relevance in the case of asthma disease. Early identification of patients at high risk

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for asthma disease progression may lead to better treatment opportunities and hopefully

better disease outcomes in adulthood (Tolomeo, et al., 2021).

Several efforts have been made by different groups to discover a safe way of prediction of

asthma outcome such as asthma index API or modified asthma index API in children

younger than five years old (Nagel et al., 2020). To the knowledge of the authors, this is the

first study where machine learning techniques are used in the prediction of persistent asthma.

However, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been used in several medical studies as

for instance to evaluate the multivariate association between functional microvascular

variables and clinical-laboratorial an thropometrical measurements (Nagel et al., 2020)

Moreover, in the study of (Lange and Rifas-Shiman, 2010), multivariate projection

techniques have been utilized to reveal how inflammatory mediators demonstrate a distinct

pattern of response to traumatic brain injury in humans. Finally, in (Lange and Rifas-Shiman,

2010), PCA was used for Gait Kinematics Data in Acute and Chronic Stroke Patients. Least

Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) classifiers have been used with success for

diagnosis of lung cancer and in a hepatitis diagnosis system (Lange and Rifas-Shiman,

2010).

PCA provides a powerful method for exploring complex datasets with multiple

variables and missing data points with relatively small numbers of observations (Hansel,

Matsui, Rusher et al, 2018). LSSVM is a robust and reliable classifier system and has the

ability to perform fast classification. For these reasons, those two techniques have been

chosen for this study (Hansel, Matsui, Rusher et al, 2018).

1.1 Background of the Study

Childhood asthma is highly heterogeneous, with numerous factors contributing

towards its development, persistence and severity. Despite approximately 80% of asthmatic

children developing symptoms (suchas wheeze) before the ageof six, these clinical symptoms

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are neither universally present in early life among all future asthmatics nor specific to asthma.

With the added difficulty of making an objective asthma diagnosis before the age of five,

both under‐treatment and over‐treatment of wheezing disorders are common in early life.

The ability to predict the development of school‐age asthma can help to identify high‐

risk preschool children and distinguish them from children whose symptoms are likely to be

transient. Furthermore, early prediction of asthma susceptibility will be critical for the

successful implementation of potential primary prevention strategies to reduce the risk of

developing asthma (Zahran, 2019).

A recent systematic review identified twenty‐one logistic regression‐based models for

predicting childhood asthma. However, none of these models have been implemented into

standard clinical practice, possibly due to relatively weak predictive power, poor

generalisability and need for specialised clinical testing. The review further proposed that

regression‐based methods for predicting childhood asthma may have been exhausted, with

the identified models offering similar predictive power to each other and being unable to be

significantly improved upon (Bracken, 2018).

Machine learning approaches have increasingly been applied to a wide range of

healthcare problems due to their ability to integrate large quantities of heterogeneous data,

handle complex interactions between variables and identify patterns within data (Bracken,

2018). Particularly for disease prediction, where interactions between biological variables are

complex, machine learning approaches have the potential to identify novel predictors which

may have been previously overlooked by regression‐based approaches.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

One of the problems of prediction model lies in the use of appropriate methods to

fit the model depending on the nature of data. Which machine learning model would

perform best in the presence of dependency among the data features, unbalanced data, and

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sparsely valued data features is still open research? (Hansel et al., 2018) Because of this

problem of model, the study will choose to predict the childhood asthma using Support

Vector Machine (SVM).

1.3 Aim and Objective of the Study

The aim of this study is to develop a Childhood Asthma Prediction Model using

Support Vector Machine that will predict asthma among children using machine learning.

The objectives are to:

a) Study and analyse existing model for the childhood asthma prediction model using

Support Vector Machine.

b) Design a Support Vector Machine model for childhood asthma patient using Unified

Modelling Language (UML) such as UMLpro and Microsoft Visio.

c) Implement the model in (b) above using python programming language and other

appropriate tools.

d) Test the performance of the model used to see if it meets a requirement discussed in the

project.

1.4 Research methodology

The machine learning for predicting childhood asthma disease using Support vector Machine

model will be studied by reviewing literatures and bring about flaws.

ii. The new system will be designed using UML and follow the architecture from the data

pre-processing, classification and implementation of the algorithm.

iii. The design will be implemented using Python programming language with WBCD-

Dataset from UCI machine learning for asthma patient prediction at early stage and also in a

severe stage.

i. The proposed system would be implemented using Jupiter Integrated Development

Environment (IDE).

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iv. Unit and integrated system testing approaches will be used to test for the effectiveness

of the system.

1.5 Scope of the Study

This study is cover to the study of childhood asthma prediction using support vector

machine dataset from UCI machine learning online repository. Performance of this model is

measured using precision score, recall score and f1-score only. Support vector Machine for

the prediction of asthmatic patient would be used.

1.6 Expected Contribution to Knowledge

prediction of childhood asthma model using machine learning techniques will enable

prediction of asthmatic patient and would be able to predict and classify disease with respect

to stages. The study will classify patient having asthma using support vector machine model

with fast approach and at the end generate an accuracy for the model use.

CONCLUSION

Using machine learning, the SVM models will be able to surpass the predictive

performance of similar models developed using traditional logistic regression‐based methods.

Both models would be generalisable in an independent population, with the support vector

machine model also demonstrating superior predictive power to rule in true asthmatics

compared to its benchmark model (and will be retained upon validation). Future application

of these models could include the development of a personalised tool/app capable of

providing explanations of which predictors contributed to an individual's predicted

probability of developing asthma.

The models will also demonstrate excellent sensitivity to predict a subgroup of

persistent wheezers. Therefore, rather than developing an all‐encompassing asthma prediction

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tool, further research into predicting specific ‘asthmas’ using machine learning approaches

may offer greater predictive insight and clinical utility. Finally, continued exploration of

machine learning approaches and the identification and integration of novel biomarkers is

warranted to further improve the power to predict future childhood asthma

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