Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning

Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

Correlation
and
Causation
Bonus Content: Causal
Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical
Thinking (Philosophy 1230)
Angela Mendelovici

Correlation

Two factors are positively correlated when one is more likely to be present given
that the other is.
Two factors are negatively correlated when one is less likely to be present given
that the other is.

• Examples:
• Smoking is positively correlated with getting lung
cancer.
• The price of strawberries is negatively correlated with
strawberry sales.

Correlation can be
evidence for causation

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

Correlation is not causation

Correlation is not causation

Suppose X is correlated with Y. Then:
• X might cause Y.
• Y might cause X.
• A third factor Z might cause both X and Y.
• The correlation might be accidental and there is
no interesting causal relationship explaining it.

Examples: Correlation is not causation

Suppose playing violent video games is correlated with violent
tendencies.

• Option 1: Playing violent video games causes violent tendencies.

Playing
Violent
violent video
tendencies
gam es

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

Examples: Correlation is not causation

Suppose playing violent video games is correlated with violent
tendencies.

• Option 2: Having violent tendencies causes playing violent video

games.
Playing
Violent
tendencies violent video
games

Examples: Correlation is not causation

Suppose playing violent video games is correlated with violent
tendencies.

• Option 3: Witnessing violence in society causes violent tendencies

and playing violent video games.

Violent
tendencies
W itnessing
violence
Playing
violent video
games

Examples: Correlation is not causation

Suppose playing violent video games is correlated with violent
tendencies.

• Option 4: There is no causal connection between violent tendencies

and playing violent video games.

Playing
Violent
tendencies violent video
games

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

Examples: Correlation is not causation

Suppose high ice cream sales are correlated with shark attacks.
• Perhaps a third factor, warm weather, causes both high ice cream
sales and shark attacks.

W arm
w eather

Ice cream Shark

sales attacks

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Examples: Correlation is not causation

• Suppose rates of autism correlate with global
warming.
• The correlation might be accidental.

Global
Autism
warming

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Source: http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations 12

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

Strengthening the evidence for a

causal relationship between two factors

• In summary, correlation is some evidence for a causal relationship between

two factors, but this evidence is also compatible with alternative
hypotheses.
• How can we strengthen the evidence for a causal relationship?

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Strengthening the evidence for

a causal relationship between two factors

1. Manipulation: Manipulate the putative cause and see if the effect changes (e.g., with a controlled
experiment).
◦ E.g. We give some people and not others a drug and see if those who received the drug get some
benefit.
◦ Of course, it’s not always possible.
2. Causal mechanism: Look for a causal mechanism that can explain the correlation.
◦ E.g. It’s plausible that smoking causes lung cells to mutate, which leads to cancer, but it’s not
plausible that there is a causal mechanism operating in the reverse direction.

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Source: http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

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Philosophy 1230: Bonus Content: Causal Reasoning
Reasoning and Critical Thinking Correlation and Causation

The End

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