DIRE DAWA UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
SCHOOL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ARCHITECTURE

FACTORES ASSOCIATED WITHRUN-OFF ROAD AND NON RUN- OFF

ROAD CRASH IN JIGJIGA, SOMALI REGION

By

TIZITA SEID YIMAM (ID /DDU/ 1205061)

Advisor

(Dr. DAMTEW TSIGE)

Co Advisor

(Gashaw Fkadu(Msc))

A Thesis Submitted to the School of Civil Engineering and Architecture inpartial

Fulfillment for the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in
Transportation Engineering

DIRE DAWA, ETHIOPIA

Augest, 2022 G.C

DECLERATION
This Thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other university
and all the resource of materials used for this thesis has been accordingly acknowledged.

Tizita Seid Yimam ______________ _________/____/_____

Name signature date

ThisThesishas been submitted for examination with my approval as University supervisors.

DAMTEW TSIGE (PhD) _______________ _______/____/_____

Advisor signature date

Gashaw Fkadu(MSc.) _______________ ________/____/_____

Co-Advisor signature date

Copyright form
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First of all my chief thanks goes to the God and Next I hold the greatest respect and thanks for
my advisors, Dr. Damtew Tsige(PhD), for his , instructing, advice, giving this opportunity and
support throughout the entire dissertation and I would like to thank my Co-Advisor Mr Gashaw

Fkadu(Msc), for all what he delivered to me assessment and also his comment, which
contributes much in the quality of my work.

I have deep gratitude towards my Family for their inimitable terrific patience, kindness, love and
respect and for the motive that they showed me the way to walk across the factual fashion since
the very start of my career.

Finally many thanks to friends, who have helped and given me suggestions, supports and
corrections throughout the project.
 SUMMARY
Everybody travels from one place to another place either to work or to do business or to study or
to enjoy using various transport options. Ethiopia has comprehensive road network linking the
different parts of the country and providing access to neighboring countries for imports and
exports. The country is experiencing an increase in motorization while road crash is resulting in
increased. Jigjiga is one of the highly developing cities in Ethiopia and Jigjiga is one of nearest
city to the border of Ethiopia so the number and the movements of traffic vehicle are increasing
because of contraband from year to year throughout the city. With increase traffic volume the
rate of accident is proportionally increasing and most of highly severed accident are happened
due to the None Run- off Road (NROR)crashand Run-off Road (ROR)crash, which is increase in
number from time to time and ranked as one of the most highly loss of the life and property
damage, once such type of crash is occurred explicitly on rural part the road and many factors
may be responsible for causing a vehicle to leave its design travel lane and result with road
crash.

This study discusses the gap insafetyand factors of the crashes by obtaining a greater
understanding of the problem of road crash in Jigjiga. By providing a further understanding of
the risk factors of road crashes in Jigjiga, through analyzing the crashes and develop a
preventive strategies and possible counter measures for the route selected those are main road of
Jigjiga(from harrer kela toWochale get),karamara Hospital road ,Gomata road , foq dere road.

The methodologies and procedure are employed to analyze the data are both qualitative and
descriptive. Interviews with accidents victims, government officials, traffic police, observation of
fields and review of secondary data for the period 2009-2013 E.C at Jigjiga causalities, are
done accordingly and SPSS V20 instrument used for the study.

The most frequently identified contributing factor among the ROR events from the model are
excessive speeding , fatigue, distraction, sleeping of driver and tire blow out and brake are out of
control, whiletoo fast for condition and loss distance,improper turning, wrong side driving,
motor problem and strapping are more related with NROR crashes.

The results of this study Encouraging proper identification of factors causing ROR Crash and
NROR Crash, hazardous area on the road section with model based method should reduce crash
frequently occurring at the same location or road section and important for appropriate
allocation of resource for improving location/road section having frequent crash. Clearly
indicate the most of the problems occurred, magnitude frequency, and identified to which
emphasis shall be given; of the way which helps to reduce the roads crash, that suggests possible
reduction factors in order to improve road safety, mobility and road planning and traffic
management in the route selected transport corridor.
 Table of Contents
DECLERATION.............................................................................................................................2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................4
SUMMARY.....................................................................................................................................5
ABBREVIATIONS.........................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER ONE............................................................................................................................10
1, INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................10
1.1 Background of the study............................................................................................................10
1.2 Statements of the problem...............................................................................................................11
1.3 Objectives of the study....................................................................................................................12
1.3.1 General Objective.....................................................................................................................12
1.3.2 Specific Objectives...................................................................................................................12
1.4 Research Questions........................................................................................................................13
1.5 Significance of the study.................................................................................................................13
1.7. Scope of the Research....................................................................................................................14
1.8. Limitation of the Study...................................................................................................................14
1.9. Methodology..................................................................................................................................14
1.9.1. Data Collection and Sources of Data.......................................................................................14
1.10. Organization of the Paper.............................................................................................................15
2. LETRATURE REVIEW...........................................................................................................16
2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................16
2.2 Crash characteristics........................................................................................................................18
2.4. Crash-Associated Factors in ROR Crashes and NROR Crashes.....................................................20
CHAPTER THREE.......................................................................................................................23
3. OVER VEIW OF THE STUDY SITE......................................................................................23
3.1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................23
3.2. Study Area......................................................................................................................................23
3.3. Methodology..................................................................................................................................23
3.3.1 Data Collection and Sources of Data.............................................................................................23
3.4 STUDY VARIABLES...................................................................................................................24
3.5.Sample Size and Sampling Procedures........................................................................................25
 3.6. Data Collection Procedures..........................................................................................................25
CHAPTER FOUR.........................................................................................................................26
RESULTAND DISCUSSION.......................................................................................................26
4.1 Chapter Overview............................................................................................................................26
4.2 Demographic Characteristics of Studied Population........................................................................26
4.2.1 Age of the Respondents............................................................................................................26
4.3 Secondary data Analysis from traffic police and road authority......................................................28
4.3.1 Trends of ROR and NROR Crashes, 2009 to 2013......................................................................28
4.3.2 Contributory Causes and Likelihood Ratios of ROR and NROR Crashes....................................30

List of Figures
List of Tables
 ABBREVIATIONS

ROR =RUN OFF ROAD

NROR =NON RUN OFF ROAD

CAR=Crash Analysis Reporting System

GES=General Estimation System

FARS=Fatal Accident Reporting System

 CHAPTER ONE

1, INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Road crashes now a day are becoming a global public health concern in the world. An important
aspect in reducing the amount of crashes on rural and urban roads is the improvement of the
safety of both existing and new roads. This is the task and the responsibility of road
administrators. May be some obstacles however which need to be overcome to enable an
efficient and proactive policy by road administrators on the improvement of traffic safety on
rural roads A road traffic accident can be stated as a collision among vehicles, between
pedestrians and vehicles, between vehicles and animals, or between fixed obstacles and vehicles.
Road traffic safety is a primary concern globally due to the magnitude of its social and economic
impact. According to the Global Plan for the Decade of Action for Road Safety, each year nearly
1.3 million fatalities, or more than 3,000 fatalities per day, occur due to traffic crashes [1]. In
addition, 20 to 50 million more people suffer injuries due to motor vehicle crashes, and some of
these injuries may cause permanent disabilities. Highway crashes are predicted to become the
fifth leading cause of fatalities worldwide unless immediate action is taken [1]. Hence, road
traffic crashes place a high social and economic impact. Also, the report mentioned that the
economic consequences of traffic crashes have been estimated to be between 1% and 3% of the
respective gross national product of the world’s countries, which amounts to more than $500
billion. Reducing road injuries and fatalities will reduce peoples’ suffering, cut work loss costs,
cut healthcare costs, cut rehabilitation cost and unlock economic growth while freeing resources
for more productive use.

ROR crashes will more common in adverse weather conditions and during night time. Among
different driver related factors, it will found that ROR crashes are more likely to occur when
drivers are traveling with passengers, Male drivers, younger drivers, drivers have the custom of
smoking and chewing chat and alcohol impaired drivers will more likely to be involved in ROR
crashes as well. When considering different vehicle-related factors, ROR crashes will more
common for passenger cars and speeding vehicles.

1.2 Statements of the problem

The main problems in Ethiopia, specifically, on the way from Wochale get to Harer Kela road
cross areas as the Traffic office of the country reported some of the biggest problems are: Death
of life due to over speeding, crushing of other vehicles due to improper rule accepting,
carelessness of drivers, passengers, pedestrians and others problems.

The major difficulties in improving road crash worldwide are the lack of commitment by
governments to tackle the situation; the lack of knowledge about what to do about the situation,
and the lack of data to determine the factor of crashes [2]. To data, road safety in Ethiopia has
received insufficient attention at the national and regional levels. This has resulted in part from
lack of information on the magnitude of the problem and its preventability [3].

Given the current data processing and reporting of the road traffic accidents from the regional
kebele and wereda to the federal level, the reports that will be generated will be much delayed
and error-prone. This intern will make the decision making process of the police offices and
other stakeholders (insurance companies, law enforcing agencies) late from taking actions
costing more citizens’ life and property damages each day and each year.

Furthermore, much of the information in the reports collected by police is need for the traffic
police’s own activity, primarily, to enforce the law and carry out prosecutions. But, some of the
accident data are of no direct interest or use to the police, but are vital to the work of other
organizations [3]. Such data could also be made used by other organizations for vital decision
making, if there is an online web based system that makes the data easily accessible to the
organizations.

An automated state of the art of the technology (especially web-based application systems) is
common in other countries for alleviating and solving such kind of traffic accident data
processing and report sharing problems. An traffic accident automated web based road reporting
system can provide a number of benefits over the current road traffic accident reporting system
used by the Ethiopian government police commission. Some of these include; Lower costs of
processing and report communication, Centralized data which is easy to secure, backup and
share, Updates can be made easily. Almost always up to date, than a yearlong update, increased
availability at anytime, anywhere. And also automatic generation of different reports with
different formats and reduction of erroneous report generation

1.3 Objectives of the study

1.3.1 General Objective

The general objective of the study is toreduce the road crush in the eastern Ethiopia specially
Jigjiga in order to promote smooth mobility and safety and identifying the factors that cause the
ROR crash and NROR crash in jigjig.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

 To examine the extent of road crash in Jigjiga.
 To know the factors which cause road crash in Jigjiga.
 To identify the factors which one is run- off road crash and non-run off road crash?
 To suggest control mechanisms at more crush occurred locations in jigjiga.
 To assess social and economic costs which were incurred due to road traffic accidents.

1.4 Research Questions

The research questions that this study will go to explain; are as follows:

 What are the general consequences of road crashes in Jigjiga?

 What are the factors which cause road crash?
 Identifying the factors which one is run- off road crash and non-run off rod crash?
 Which location of the road mostly affected by traffic crashes?
 How the country’s social and economy impacted by road crush?

1.5 Significance of the study

 Adding knowledge on the gap created around the issues;
 Promising in terms of resolving the problems associated with road crash in Jigjiga;
 Offering information regarding the factor of road crash in Jigjiga;
 Findings of this study leading to new problems for further investigation;

Signaling and motivating the various stakeholders to take appropriate actions by incorporating
the issue in their policies and strategies; and Providing policy makers, researchers, institutions
etc with adequate, and reliable data so as to implement feasible and appropriate engineering
solutions to reduce the road crash.

The studies’s result will be applicable in different areas benefiting different target groups. The
main beneficiaries will be the following.

 Traffic police officers are the main users of the system in registering traffic accidents,
submitting or communicating it, initiating report generation and using the reports to take
appropriate actions.
 Citizens, NGOs and media can get access to accident statistics and take necessary action
with the help of local government.
 Insurance Companies whose insured was involved in an accident can also use the system
to get current and up-to-date information about their client and take measure.
 JigjigaRoad Authority for identifying those roads which might have caused repeated
traffic accidents and improve these road standards.
 Fire fighting and rescue department to provide prompt rescue services.
 Ministry of Transport and Communication to identify and monitor which of those
licensed drivers and registered vehicles by the ministry are causing repeated accident.

1.7. Scope of the Research

This particular research focuses on the issues of factors that are believed to influence road crash
the scope of this study will be focused solely upon identification of factor contributing to run-
off-the road crashes and non-run off- road crash, and the effect of road crash and furthermore,
traffic crash data analysis component will be limited to the data sourced from Jigjiga between
2009 and 2013 Etc, Jigjiga Transport Authority, Jiggiga hospital and other sectors.

1.8. Limitation of the Study

This study lucks to obtain fully completed data related to road crash. However, several data was
obtained from Jigjiga City Traffic Office,Jigjiga Road Authority,Accident victimsand Jiggiga
hospital. Some irregularities exist in the data.The absence of information related to Roadcrash in
terms of their type, number,traffic flow,distribution and other related factors, made this study
difficult. Also since the available data is more general, the study has to relay on data from the
archives of the traffic police, which are bulky and uneconomical in terms ofresources and time.
Also it was hard and tiresome to convince the respondents about the aim of the study. The other
draw back of the police traffic data is that the data is employed manually that some of the
statistical data were lost somewhere else in the offices. Improper handlings of data were strongly
seen in every police traffic offices. The data being handled manually the method to obtain was to
write and copy from the concerned department. The other tidies work was seen while
transferring the data from the hard copy to computerized information beside the analysis of the
raw data into information. Some of the police traffic offices were tidies to give the available data
giving appointment and on the appointment day not responding for the appointment by putting
reasons such as one of the member who is responsible went for work to the field survey.
Therefore, shortage of time, absence of recent information and limited cooperation of the
government offices such as Traffic Police Commission, were the main problems that the
researcher had to face during the survey and data collection phase.

1.9. Methodology

1.9.1. Data Collection and Sources of Data

The main types of data used in this study are primary and secondary sources.

The primary data includes interviews with accidents victims, hospital,traffic police, and further
investigation done by the author while making field trip and survey to see the drivers conditions,
the roads status, the environmental conditions, the police traffic cooperativeness and other
important things visualized Jigjiga`s road.

Secondary data reviewed at Jigjiga karamara hospital, regionals road authority, and the archives
of polices accidents files of Jigjiga causalities, will be done accordingly, additionally, related
review literature from different books, proceeding, reports, international publications, and
internet waves consulted.

The booklets include the following information: Date, day and time of crash, Vehicle type and
ownership, Driver sex, age and education, crush type, Degree of severity, Number of victims
(driver, passenger, and pedestrian), sex and age of severity, Locations of accident, Type of
victims.

1.9.2 Methods of Data Processing and Analyses

The methodologies employed to analyze the data were both descriptive and qualitative statistics.
Thus, the organized data were interpreted using descriptive methods in the form of charts, tables,
and graphs using statistical quality control tools to the trends and the situations of the cars
accidents on the roads on the research ways. To identify the most hazardous locations among
streets of the places, crash density and crash rate are to be judged. Data processing once over the
methods used to over come the main cause of the problems are to be made swiftly to show the
polices, the government bodies how tobring down the car accidents on these ways by paying
attention to the most critical areas and times.

1.10. Organization of the Paper

CHAPTER TWO

2. LETRATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction
Globally, road traffic accidents are an important public health concern which needs to be
tackled. [1]1.35 million deaths occur on the world’s roads in 2016. 20-50 million injured the
eighth leading cause of death globally the leading cause of death for young people aged 15–29
Current trends suggest that by 2030 road traffic deaths will become the fifth leading cause of
death unless urgent action is taken . A multidisciplinary approach is required to understand what
causes them and to provide the evidence for policy support. Run-off-road and Non Run-Of-Road
crashes have become a major cause of serious injuries and fatalities.

Various factors such as driver, environment, vehicle, roadway, road users and factors
contributing to Run-Of-Road and Non-Run-Of-Road crashes will analyze developing crash
severity models so that potential countermeasures can be develop to improve road safety.
Different factors that effect on ROR crashes and non-ROR crashes will identify using the
models. Results will indicate that some variables are significantly related to Run-Of-Road crash
severity and Non-Run-Of-Road crash severity.

Vehicle is one of the most widely used transport alternative and the major source of road traffic
accidents in the world. Statistically there are more motor vehicles on the road than ever before in
the world and this trend is expected to continue to grow. Unfortunately, as the number of motor
vehicles traveling on our roadways increases, so too will the number of traffic crashes unless
ways can be found to prevent them, especially in developing country [5].

Whereas international studies have shown that road crashes in developed countries have been
decreasing in the past decades, in developing countries the opposite trend has become apparent
[4]. For instance, in the Netherlands, the crashes fell by 82.5% between the years 1970 and 2014
[15]; in Hong Kong and Canada road fatalities per person in fell by 60% whereas they increased
in developing countries like Botswana and Cambodia by 200% between the years 1975 and 1998
[4].
Each year Run-Of-Road crashes cause serious injuries and fatalities throughout the world, where
Run-Of-Road crashes is a major safety concern in the United States of America (U.S.A.) as well.
Data from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) illustrated that Run-Of-Road crashes
cause around 33% of fatalities in the U.S.A.[6]. The statistics about single vehicle Run-Of-Road
crashes is alarming; Fatality Analysis Reporting System reported about 53% of the total traffic
fatalities in the U.S.A. are due to single-vehicle Run-Of-Road crashes where vehicles leave the
travel lanes resulting in collisions with fixed objects or overturning [6]. Run-Of-Road crashes
usually involve running off the road onto the right or left shoulder and hitting a fixed object or a
parked vehicle. Run-Of-Road crashes also involve crossing into an opposite lane and colliding
with an oncoming vehicle. Those crashes resulting in between two moving vehicles may be
potentially more severe. An estimated societal cost of $110 billion has been imposed each year
due to roadside crashes [7].

The Kansas department of Transportation KCARS is Access based database which consists of
several tables describing each crash. The definition for ROR crashes in this study was the crashes
where the vehicles leaving the roadway encroach upon the median, shoulders, or beyond and
either overturns, collides with fixed objects or leads to head-on crashes with other vehicles;
sideswipe with opposing vehicles; or crashes where the first harmful events occur off the
roadway or median-off roadway in case of divided highway sections. The tables in the KCARS
database were combined and queries were made to filter all Run-Of-Road crashes in order to
compare Run-Of-Road crashes and Non-Run-Of-Road crashes. From the data, it has been found
that Run-Of-Road crashes were approximately to 18% that of total crashes for combined crash
data from 2007 to 2011. For the same time period in Kansas injury Run-Of-Road crashes were
found to be approximately 24% of the total injury crashes and fatal Run-Of-Road crashes were
54% to that of total fatal crashes. In contrast to Run-Of-Road crashes, there are crashes in which
vehicles remain on the road after the crashes and those are considered as Non Run-Of-Road
crashes [8].

2.2 Crash characteristics

The in-dept study of Davidse et all. shows that it is a confluence of events and general factors
that form the cause of Run-Of-Road crashes. Major factors related to road design that can be
identified from this study are curves, obstacles, driver (risk) awareness and time and space for
correction [9]. Curves impose an additional risk compared to straight road sections when small
curve radiuses are in place and curves are not marked clearly. In the in-dept study of Davidse et
all. 50% of all Run-Of-Road crashes occurred in or directly after the curve. Studies on crash
risks due to curves in Sweden [10] and [12] provide similar findings about the relation between
the curve radius and crash risks. It was found that the crash risk rapidly grows with curve
radiuses smaller than a 1000m. The relative risk of a curve radius of 400m was found to be about
40% higher than a curve radius of a 1000m. The Dutch road design guidelines on curves
however are based on the physics of friction resulting in a minimum guideline of a curve radius
of 300m with a positive super elevation of 2.5% [13]. Although the studies from Sweden and the
USA don’t take super elevation into account in the analysis, it might well be that small curve
radiuses in the Netherlands is part of the causation of a large share of ROR crashes in curves.
Obstacles are also an important factor in the resulting injury from a ROR crash. In the Dutch
road design guidelines [13] an obstacle is described as an object, vegetation, or other road side
element that causes severe damage and injury to the vehicle and occupants on impact. Some
examples are: poles, trees, ditches, slopes and canals. The Dutch guidelines recommends a safety
zone without any obstacles of 6m and a minimum of 4.5m, based on encroachment studies from
the sixties from [14] and a research to the crash risk of trees in the eighties [15]. In practice
however these guidelines are often not met.

A narrow safety zone was the cause of the injury in 40% of the ROR crashes in the in-dept study
of Davidse et al. What is more, all fatal and severe injuries were caused by obstacles. The
human factor also plays an important role in the crash cause. In almost every case study in the
in-dept study of Davidse et al, the risk( awareness) was negatively influenced, contributing to the
crash cause, by one or a combination of the following factors; alcohol, distraction, Emotional
states, fatigue, lack of experience . Such factors can lead to accidental lane departures, slow
awareness and anticipation to curves, panic responses to lane departure and to too high speeds
for the circumstances. By the means of visual road guidance and haptic feedbacks, the
infrastructure can notify drivers for lane departures and curves and as such help drivers with lane
keeping and curve anticipation. A final important factor is a fail-safe design, providing space and
times for the correction of for example swerving and accidental departures. Aiming at providing
a driver enough space and time to correct the error by safely steering back on the road or safely
coming to standstill in the verge by the cross sectional road design. This design principle
relatesto an array of factors including a sufficient safety zone and road design elements that can
stimulate awareness. Other important factors include the lane width and road width, hard and soft
shoulder width and friction. Those elements should provide vehicles the grip and space needed to
safely redirect the vehicle or to safely come to a standstill.

2.3. Major Factors for the Road crash

Road crash are caused by three main factors. These main factors contribute a great road crash
and damage of life, properties, etc due to the high magnitude of the errors committed by the
following main factors. The risks occurring due to these factors on the world are not reducing
rather increasing as the data shows that traffic accidents increasing on the world continents.
These main factors are Human Factors, Road Defect and Vehicle Defect.

Risk factors influencing being involved in crash are approximate number of vehicles per day,
frequent vehicle type on the road, width of the road, Number of lanes, type of road, drainage
facilities provided, surface condition of the pavement, presence of shoulders, presence of edge
obstructions like advertising hoardings, trees, etc very close to the road, provision of median
barriers to channels the traffic, presence of ribbon (decoration) development near roads,
inappropriate and excessive speed, presence of drugs and alcohol, being young and male,
fatigue, being vulnerable road user in an urban , poor vehicle maintenance, traveling in
darkness, layout and maintenance defects, inadequate visibility due to weather conditions, poor
eyesight, etc are some exposure to roads crash.

2.4. Crash-Associated Factors in ROR Crashes and NROR Crashes

Numerous studies have been conducted in recent years on roadside safety crashes. [7] and the
research investigate how different driver characteristics such as gender, age, and alcohol usage
relate to ROR crashes, the study used data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and the
National Personal Transportation Studies. The study found out that ROR crash rates peaked in
1980 and had decreased after the year to 40% for both male and female drivers, even after
adjusting for driving exposure, it was found that male crash rates were higher than female crash
rates. Hence the studies prove also ROR crash rates were found to be higher for young
inexperienced drivers and older drivers aged 70 years older and in similar function teenage
female drivers had a 3.75 times higher crash rate than average female.

[16]In Florida examined human, roadway, vehicle, and environmental factors associated with
overcorrection as opposed to traditional ROR crashes using binary logistic regression analysis.
Overcorrection occurs when a vehicle begins drifting off the road one way and the driver over
steers in the opposite direction, leading the vehicle to cross over into oncoming lanes of traffic,
sideswipe an adjacent vehicle, or travel off the road into a hazard. The study used data from
Florida Traffic Crash Report and Florida Department of Transportation Crash Analysis
Reporting System (CAR) database for ROR crashes in 2000 in Florida. The analysis of the data
revealed the fact that approximately 36% of the vehicles crossed the entire roadway and departed
on the opposite side from the initial roadway departure. Among different contributory factors,
alcohol was the major one, followed by speed, inattention, and fatigue/sleep and it was also
suggested that overcorrection had a strong positive association with the presence of rumble strips
inclement weather, rural locations, incapacitated drivers, and running off the road to the left or
straight. The authors found strong negative association with male drivers, speeding, paved or
curbed shoulders, wet or slippery roads, and larger vehicles and fewer than 20% of fatal ROR
crashes occurred where rumble strips were present; drivers were more than 50% more likely to

Overcorrect than when they were not present. [17] used the Fatality Analysis Reporting System
database for fatal ROR crashes occurring during the period 1991 to 2007 and Logistic regression
analysis was used in the study and the results revealed that ROR crashes were more likely to take
place on curved roads, rural roads, and roadways with fewer lanes. Speeding vehicles, vehicles
with high occupancy, adverse weather conditions, dark conditions, vehicles driven by male and
young drivers, and passenger cars posed special challenges for roadside safety improvement
efforts. In another study conducted by [18], a sequential binary logistic regression model was
used to identify the most important causes of ROR crashes and to estimate the severity of young
driver ROR crashes by extracting the data from the Florida Traffic Crash Database from 1997-
1998. The study found that use of alcohol or drugs, gender, ejection in the crash, restraint device
usage, and impact point of the vehicle, urban/rural location, and grade/curve existence of the
crash location, speed and lighting condition were the most important factors affecting the
severity of young driver single-vehicle ROR crashes. Based on different factors stated in
different finding, the researcher can give the Global definition for Run-off-road crashes and in
contrast all single vehicle crashes where the first harmful event occurs off the roadway, except
for backing and pedestrian related crashes. A statistical review of the 1992 General Estimation
System (GES) and Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) databases indicate that run-off-road
crashes are the most serious of crash types within the US crash population. These crashes
account for over 20% of all police reported crashes, and over 41 % of all in-vehicle fatalities
15,000 / year [19] and some of the most important characteristics of roadway departure crashes
predicted from the finding of the research are: - they occur most often on straight roads 76%, on
dry roads 62%, in good weather 73%, on rural or suburban roads 75% and evenly split between
day and night. Unlike many of the other traffic crash types, run-off-road crashes are caused by a
wide variety of factors. Detailed analysis of 200 NASS CDS crash reports indicates that run-off-
road crashes are primarily caused by the following six factors as per their research analysis of the
data in their finding (in decreasing order of frequency):- Excessive speed 32.0%; traveling too
fast to maintain control, Driver incapacitation 20.1%; typically drowsiness or intoxication, Lost
directional control 16.0%; typically due to wet or icy pavement, Evasive maneuvers 15.7%;
driver steers off road to avoid obstacle, Driver inattention 12.7%; typically due to internal or
external distraction, and Vehicle failure 3.6%; typically due to tire blowout or steering system
failure [18].
In connection with model used in the analysis part in this research, the model was previously
used to identify factor contributing to fatal commercial truck and the result shows that one-ninth
of all traffic fatalities in the United States have involved large trucks in the past five years,
although large trucks contributed to only 3% of registered vehicles and 7% of vehicle miles
travelled. This contrasting proportion indicates that truck crashes in general tend to be more
severe than other crashes though they constitute a smaller sector of vehicles on the road and to
study the issue, fatal crash data from the FARS was used to analyze characteristics and factors
contributing to truck-involved crashes. Factor like Driver, vehicle, and crash-related contributory
causes were identified, and as an extension the likelihood of occurrence of these contributory
causes in truck-involved crashes with respect to non-truck crashes was evaluated using the
Bayesian Statistical Equation approach (Uttara Roy et., 2011).

Likely, the Likelihood ratios which were important parameter in the model equation indicated
that factors such as stopped or unattended vehicles and improper following have greater
probability of occurrence in truck crashes than in non-truck crashes (Sundanda, 2010).

In contrast (Uttara Roy et., 2011) circuit his research on the Comparison of Factors Associated
with Run-Off-Road and Non-Run-Off Road Crashes in Kansas using the Kansas Accident
Reporting System database with the application of Bayesian Statistical Equation Approach. From
their research finding Nighttime, weekends, adverse weather, rural area, gravel and curved roads,
higher speed limits, wet and icy road surface, and utility vehicles are found to be the common
characteristics of ROR crashes and in the same agreements factor like Fell asleep, ill or medical
condition, driving under the influence, too fast for conditions, tires and wheels, strong winds,
freezing rain, shoulders, ruts, holes, and bumps are found to have the greatest likelihood ratios
and as such have a greater role in contributing to ROR crashes than NROR crashes.

2.5. Risk factors influencing being involved in crash

Approximate number of vehicles per day, width of the road, type of road, drainage facilities
provided, number of lanes, frequent vehicle type on the road, surface condition of the pavement,
presence of shoulders, presence of edge obstructions like trees, advertising hoardings, trees, etc
very close to the road, provision of median barriers to channels the traffic, poor vehicle
maintenance, presence of decoration development near roads, excessive and inappropriate speed,
traveling in darkness, presence of drugs and alcohol, fatigue, being young and male, being
vulnerable road user in an urban area, road design, layout and maintenance defects, poor
eyesight, inadequate visibility due to weather conditions, etc are some exposure to roads traffic
accident.
 CHAPTER THREE

3. OVER VEIW OF THE STUDY SITE

3.1. Introduction

Highlights of crash situation ,the roads route condition and the important locations from the
available data will be discussed in the succeeding sections to have an over view and the switch to
the data analysis and interpretation of the findings in the next to this section.

3.2. Study Area

The target area and population for the study were Jigjiga City major road(from harar kela to
wochale get),karamara Hospital road,gomata road(new taywan),foq dere road.

3.3. Methodology

This research primarily has two components analyses based on crash data collected between
2009 and 2013 using state databases, and a detailed engineering study based on a sample of rural
two-lane highway segments located in four different districts in Texas. The first component
sought to identify global factors that influence this type of crash by region and district. The
second component focused on identifying factors that may not be captured by the state databases,
but can be extracted from site visits and the analysis of original crash reports. Input from the
various districts was also obtained for this component.

3.3.1 Data Collection and Sources of Data

Primary Data Collection

Questionnaires: Question papers were distributed using semi structured questionnaires to

drivers, traffic polices and transport officers through which the road passes. Their responses to
specific questions on the questionnaire relating to the use, and the appropriateness of the road
traffic safety measures installed on the road were noted. For the traffic police and transport
officer their answer to crash trend and future plan to further reduce the crashes along the route
were noted.

Interviews: interviews with accidents victims, traffic police and further investigation were done
by the author while making field trip and survey to see the drivers conditions, the roads status,
the environmental conditions, adherence to road traffic signs and the use of speed required, the
police traffic cooperativeness and other important things will be visualized Jigjiga`s road.

Secondary Data Collection

1) Accident Records: Crashes were recorded by the traffic police on yearly basis. This study
was based on a secondary data obtained from jigjiga town for five years period from 2009-2013.

2) Traffic data: To achieve the objective report, traffic data was obtained from traffic police in
order to determine the rate of traffic crash before from 2009-2013.

Secondary data will be reviewed at jigjiga karamara hospital and the archives of polices
accidents files of Jigjiga causalities, additionally, related review literature from different books,
proceeding, reports, international publications, and internet waves will be consulted.

The booklets will include the following information: Date, day and time of crash, Vehicle type
and ownership, Driver sex, age and education, crush type, Degree of severity, Number of victims
(driver, passenger, and pedestrian), sex and age of severity, Locations of accident, Type of
victims.

3.4 STUDY VARIABLES

Two type of variable will used in this study. Those are dependent and independent variable.
Dependent variable: Road traffic accident.
Independent variables are road related variables such as; traffic volume, radius of a curve, age,
traffic sign, driver characteristics, spot speed, and sight distance are the most significant factors
affecting road safety and environment related variables.

Table 3.2: Measurement of Variables

Types of Name of Variable Definition of variable

Variables
Dependent Road traffic accident An accident involving at least one road vehicle occurring
variables
on road open to public circulation and in which at least
one person is injured or killed
Independent In terms of vehicles
variables
In terms of
(environment) road
network
In terms of people’s
behavior
In terms of legislation
and regulations

3.5.Sample Size and Sampling Procedures

Using a Census for Small Populations is to use the entire population as the sample. a census is
more attractive for small populations (e.g., 200 or less).A census eliminates sampling error and
provides data on all the individuals in the population. In jigjiga there are 60 traffic polices so
sample size for traffic police office was 60 also for road authority office there are 31 workers
sample size will be 31.

Non -probability sampling techniques of purposive sampling will be applied for traffic
policerecords, All registered recent Jigjiga karamara hospital registries of Jigjiga city will be
included in the sample, as well as 90 sample drivers were taken purposively.

Types of respondent group Population Sample Size

Traffic police office of Jigjiga 60 60

Road authority office of Jigjiga 31 31
 Drivers from Jigjiga town 90
Victim of road traffic accident from 10
Jigjiga karamara hospital
Total 191

3.6. Data Collection Procedures

The data source for this study includes Primary and secondary data’s. Traffic police, road
authorities, site visitation and all traffic Crashes occurring in Jigjiga are registered under traffic
office and Jigjiga karamara hospital, which is most traffic crash in the city recorded under it. The
latest available data in both organizations is taken for the study. Hospital data were retrieved
from three different departments as follows: the emergency and medical records.

CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTAND DISCUSSION

4.1 Chapter Overview

As indicated in chapter one the specific objectives and subsequent research questions that
informed this study were as follows (i) what are the general consequences of road crashes in
Jigjiga? (ii) what are the factors which cause road crash? (iii) Identifying the factors which one is
run- off road crash and non-run off rod crash? (iv) which location of the road mostly affected by
traffic crashes? (v) how the country’s social and economy impacted by road crush?
In order to answer these questions questionnaire, interview and observation were used in the
process of gathering data and information needed by the study. These methods were taken from
both qualitative and quantitative methodology. The rationale of combining the two methods was
that the study wanted to ensure that the limitations of one type of data are balanced by the
strengths of another. This ensured that understanding is improved by integrating different ways
of knowing. In this regards, the research findings, interpretation and discussions are presented in
the following manner;

4.2 Demographic Characteristics of Studied Population

4.2.1 Age of the Respondents

The analysis of age composition to the respondents who participated revealed that the age of
respondents range between 19 and 46 years. As shown in Table 4.1 below, about 68.9 percent of
all the total respondents belong to the age of 19-25; on the other hand, about 17.8 percent
belongs to the age of 26-35 and it was also revealed that about 8.0 of the total respondents are
aged between 36-45 respectively. This means that the study involved both category youth and
adults, with this age researcher was able to get knowledge and information required to answer
the specific questions posed by the study.

Table 4.1: Percentage Distribution of Respondent Age

age_grouped
Valid Cumulative
Frequency Percent Percent Percent
Valid 19-25 62 68.9 68.9 68.9
26-35 16 17.8 17.8 86.7
36-45 8 8.9 8.9 95.6
46 and above 4 4.4 4.4 100.0
Total 90 100.0 100.0

4.2.2 Gender of the Respondents

Looking at the Table 4.2 we see that more than 90 percent of the total respondents

who participated in this study were male and the rest 10 percent of respondents were

Female.

Table 4.2: Gender of the Respondents

 Percent
120

100

80

Axis Title 60

40

20

0
male female Total

4.2.3 Education Level of Respondents

The study was conducted to respondent of various level of education thus almost 62 percent of
them went in secondary school while 19 percent were those completed the level of diploma and
above, additional to that at least 8 of them were elementary level. Generally, this implies that the
respondents were from different categories of education and thus they were preferred as the
sample for conducting the research. In today’s society education is one among the important
thing people needs to acquire. It provides them with knowledge and skills that can lead to a
better quality of life. Education is a key determinant of the life style and status an individual
enjoy in the society. However, the data presented in Table 4.3 above indicates that still there is a
need to encourage people to get more education. In the study area (Jigjiga) the findings reveled
that highest number of the people participated in the study were people who completed the level
of secondary school.
 70
60
50
40
30 62
20
10 19
8
0 1
read_and_wrt elementary secondary diploma_and_above

4.3 Secondary data Analysis from traffic police and road authority

4.3.1 Trends of ROR and NROR Crashes, 2009 to 2013

Figure 4.1illustrates the percentages of ROR and NROR crashes to that of total crashes. The
figure shows that the percentage of ROR crashes has increased during the 5 years with the lowest
being observed in2009 (6.6%) and with the highest being observed in 2013 (94.3%). The
percentage of NROR crashes, on the other hand, has decreased slightly over the 5 years.

Figure 4.1: Trend Analysis of ROR and NROR Crashes

 Trend Analysis of ROR and NROR Crashes
10000.0%
9000.0%
8000.0%
7000.0%
Number of crash

6000.0% Total number of crash

5000.0% Number of Run-Off Road Crash
Number of Non Run-Off Road
4000.0% Crash
3000.0% 31
2000.0% 23
17 18
1000.0% 11 10 11
7
6 4
0.0%
2009 2009.5 2010 2010.5 2011 2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013
year

Figure 4.2: Analysis of total Crashes by age categories

160

140 138
120

100
80 f(x) = 13.8363636363636 x + 20
R² = 0.685601818418591 Series1
60 Linear (Series1)
49
40 44

20 24 21

0
Less than 18-30 more than unKnown Total
18 50 Age
 Factors for the occurrence of crash
100%
0.05 21.67 56.67 16.67 1
80%
60%
40%
Series2
20%
Series1
0%

4.3.2 Contributory Causes and Likelihood Ratios of ROR and NROR Crashes

The likelihood of occurrence of people’s behavior, vehicle, environment, and legislation related
contributory causes in ROR crashes when compared with NROR crashes are discussed with the
following tables. The probability of a contributory cause greater than one indicates that
contributory cause is more predominant in ROR crashes than in NROR crashes.

Driver Related Causes

Table 4.5 shows contributing driver-related causes as well as their corresponding likelihood
ratios in ROR crashes when compared with NROR crashes. The total number of ROR and
NROR crashes occurring between 2009 and 2013 due to driver-related contributory causes are
92 and 46 respectively. The contributory cause is identified by the police once the crash occurs.
There are some crashes where the contributory cause is not reported by the police as they are not
known. Again, there are some crashes which are contributed to by more than one cause. The
entries in each column of Table 4.41 are explained by taking an example of a driver-related
cause. The first numbers in columns 2 and 3 represent the number of ROR and NROR crashes,
respectively, when falling asleep contributes to the crashes. The detailed calculation to obtain the
likelihood ratio for falling asleep is presented.

¿
P(ROR/CC) = Number of ROR crashes due ¿ fellasleep Number of all ROR+ NROR crashes
 Number of ROR crashes
P(ROR) = Number of all ROR+ NROR crashes

¿
P(CC) = Number of crashes due ¿ fellasleep Number of all ROR+ NROR crashes

P (ROR/ CC )+ P(CC)
P(CC /ROR) = P ( ROR)

P(CC / RORcrashes)
Likelihood Ratio = P (CC/ NRORcrashes)

Failure to Give Frist, Brake are out of control, Tire failure, driving Too Fast For Condition & Loss
Distance ,Improper Turning, and Unknown factor are found to have the likelihood ratios greater
than one, which indicates that these causes are more predominant in ROR crashes than in NROR
crashes.

Conditional Conditional
prob of prob of
Total ROR NROR
driver factors driver factors
Crash Contributing Factor Crash crash crash
given ROR given NROR Likelihoo
crashes crashes d Ratio
Sleep, Distraction, Fatigue 8 5 3 0.054 0.065 0.8333
Failure to Give Frist 12 9 3 0.098 0.065 1.5000
Excessive Speed 33 21 12 0.228 0.261 0.8750
Over Loading 7 4 3 0.043 0.065 0.6667
Brake are out of control 11 10 1 0.109 0.022 5.0000
Not Giving Attention 6 3 3 0.033 0.065 0.5000
Pedestrian and Passenger Problem 8 3 5 0.033 0.109 0.3000
Rain 1 0 1 0.000 0.022 0.0000
Tire failure 5 4 1 0.043 0.022 2.0000
Too Fast For Condition & Loss
7 6 1
Distance ,Improper Turning 0.065 0.022 3.0000
In-experienced 3 1 2 0.011 0.043 0.2500
Rut, Hole 2 2 0 0.022 0.000 0.0000
Motor Problem 5 2 3 0.022 0.065 0.3333
Strapping 1 0 1 0.000 0.022 0.0000
Obstruction 1 1 0 0.011 0.000 0.0000
Unknown factor 28 21 7 0.228 0.152 1.5000