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Gadus Morhua
Gadus Morhua
Gadus Morhua
doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.05.015
Drinkwater, K. F. 2005. The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate
change. e ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62: 1327e1337.
1054-3139/$30.00 Ó 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1328 K. F. Drinkwater
usually they are found in waters with a temperature range some of the largest anthropogenic climate changes in the
of 0e12(C. Also, it is one of the most important commer- world.
cial species in the North Atlantic, in spite of significant de- The focus of this paper is restricted to the impact of tem-
clines that have occurred in several regions during recent perature changes on cod for two main reasons. First, the
decades (e.g. Murawski et al., 1997; O’Brien et al., 2000; GCMs, in spite of high model-to-model differences in the
Astthorsson and Vilhjálmsson, 2002; Rice, 2002). Finally, amplitude of the temperature change, all predict a general
the regions occupied by cod are expected to experience warming. On the other hand, there is much greater
Response of Atlantic cod to future climate change 1329
uncertainty, even in the direction of the changes, about pre- decreases approximately one year for every 2(C increase
cipitation, freshwater discharge, and winds and, hence, gen- in bottom temperature.
eral physical oceanography. Second, our understanding of Spawning times are influenced by temperature as well.
the effects of temperature on cod far exceeds that of other Typically, higher temperatures result in earlier cod spawn-
environmental variables. ing through faster gonad development, as has been ob-
The following section reviews the effects of temperature served, for example, on the northern Grand Bank
and its variability on cod. Thereafter, I present some of the (Hutchings and Myers, 1994a). However, the relationship
predictions from global circulation models for the areas in- between temperature at the spawning site and time of
habited by Atlantic cod. Finally, these two sections will be spawning depends on local hydrography and fish distribu-
coupled to predict the response of cod to future climate tion. In contrast to the positive relationship between local
change. The final section of concluding remarks includes temperatures and time of spawning found on the northern
example, cod spawning off Iceland prior to the warming which inhabit bottom temperatures R 9(C). Stocks in the
was primarily restricted to the southern shelf regions. How- mid-range of bottom temperatures (7e8(C) tended to
ever, as the waters warmed around Iceland, cod spawning have little or no relationship between SST and recruitment.
spread to the north shelf areas, thereby surrounding the is- In a study of North Sea cod under climate change, Clark
land (Sæmundsson, 1934; Vilhjálmsson, 1997). With the et al. (2003) estimated a 30% decrease in recruitment in re-
dramatic cooling around Iceland in the 1960s, cod spawn- sponse to a 0.25(C increase in temperature. They further
ing largely ceased in the north and returned to the pattern noted that continuation of current fishing levels in combina-
observed prior to the warming. In the Barents Sea, cod ap- tion with expected temperature increases would lead to
peared in large quantities on Bear Island Bank in response a faster rate of decline in the North Sea stock than if tem-
to the warming of the early 20th century, resulting in the re- perature changes were not considered.
establishment of a cod fishery there after an absence of al-
4 Faroes
2
0
-2
Warmer Temperatures -2 -1 0 1 2 Warmer Temperatures
increase Recruitment 4 4 decrease Recruitment
Iceland 7 Georges Bank
2 2
0 0
-2 7 -2
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
6 8
Abundance and recruitment negative (Figure 2). Planque and Frédou (1999) used
To predict the abundance response of current cod stocks to SSTs from an extensive region off Newfoundland and Lab-
future warming, I have relied heavily upon the following. rador and noted the large uncertainty in the estimates of the
First, cod stocks are not observed much above annual temperature variability in this region. Their results for
mean bottom temperatures of 12(C (Dutil and Brander, northern cod also conflicted with the positive relationship
2003). The reason for this is unclear. It may be that the met- between temperature and recruitment for this same stock
abolic costs are too high or that cod cannot compete success- found by deYoung and Rose (1993). As a result, I recalcu-
fully with other species at such warm temperatures. Surface lated the relationship using a more representative tempera-
temperatures are generally much higher than bottom temper- ture time-series than the one used by Planque and Frédou
atures, so another possibility is that the eggs and larvae can- (1999). A continuous monitoring site exists off eastern
not survive in such warm waters. Regardless of the cause, I Newfoundland (known as Station 27), which has been
assume that this relationship will continue in the future. shown to represent low-frequency temperature variability
Thus, if bottom temperatures warm beyond 12(C, I assume through southern Labrador, the northeast Newfoundland
that cod will disappear, either through moving into colder shelf, and the Grand Banks (Petrie et al., 1992). These areas
waters or because of high mortality. constitute the geographical range of the northern cod. Using
Second, the temperature-recruitment relationships found Station 27 data, a positive relationship between recruitment
by Planque and Frédou (1999) were converted into a change and temperature was found and is consistent with the results
in recruitment per unit change in SST and plotted against of deYoung and Rose (1993).
the mean annual bottom temperature of the stock (Sundby, Figure 4 suggests that at bottom temperatures !5(C, re-
2000) (Figure 4). Note that the SST-recruitment relation- cruitment increases with increasing SST, and at bottom
ship for northern cod in Figure 4 is positive, while that es- temperatures O8.5(C, recruitment decreases. At bottom
timated by Planque and Frédou (1999) was slightly temperatures between these two values, there is little
1332 K. F. Drinkwater
Georges Bank
Gulf of Maine
Western Scotian Shelf
Eastern Scotian Shelf
Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence
Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence
Southern Newfoundland
Grand Bank
change in recruitment with changes in SST. This provides current values, it is expected that the Irish Sea stock would
a clue as to what will happen to recruitment under the pre- disappear. The Georges Bank and North Sea stocks would
dicted temperature changes. For example, Georges Bank continue to decline, and the stocks in the Kattegat, off West
cod live in bottom waters with an annual average of ap- Scotland, and the Faroes, would begin to decline owing to de-
proximately 8(C and there is currently no relation between creasing recruitment. The stocks that increased under a 1(C
SSTs and recruitment (Planque and Frédou, 1999) (Figure change would continue to increase with the exception per-
2). However, if mean bottom temperatures increased by haps of the Flemish Cap stock, whose recruitment would
just 1(C, then based upon Figure 4, it would be expected level off. The remaining stocks would not see any change
that recruitment would become temperature dependent, re-
sulting in decreasing recruitment based on warmer SSTs. If
higher SSTs were to continue, this would tend to reduce the
2
stock further. Next, I consider what would happen to each
d(Recruitment)/dT
1.5 WG
of the stocks for uniform mean temperature increases of r2 = 0.75
1 NE
1e4(C (Figure 5).
0.5 NC IC
With a sustained 1(C change, several of the southern cod FA GB
0
stocks become stressed. I predict that the cod stocks in the
-0.5 CS
Celtic Sea and the English Channel would eventually disap-
-1 NS IS
pear as waters warm above 12(C, as is likely (Figure 3).
-1.5
Stocks in the Irish Sea, the southern North Sea, and Georges 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Bank would decline owing to decreasing recruitment with in- Bottom Temperature
creasing temperatures. On the other hand, cold-water stocks,
Figure 4. The rate of change in recruitment per unit change in sea
such as most of those off eastern Canada, and off Greenland, surface temperature as a function of bottom temperature ((C) for
in the Barents Sea, and the Kara Sea would benefit from in- various cod stocks. (NC Z Northern Cod, WG Z West Greenland,
creased recruitment owing to the warmer waters. The recruit- NE Z Northeast Arctic Cod, IC Z Iceland, FA Z Faroes, GB Z
ment levels of the remaining stocks would not change Georges Bank, NS Z North Sea, IS Z Irish Sea, and CS Z Celtic
appreciably. As the temperature increased to 2(C above Sea).
Response of Atlantic cod to future climate change 1333
60 60 60 60
50 50 50 50
1°C 2°C
60 40 20 0 60 40 20 0
60 60 60 60
50 50
50 50
60 60 40
40
3°C 4°C
60 40 20 0
60 40 20 0
Increase
No change
Decrease
Collapse
?
Figure 5. Expected changes in the abundance of the cod stocks with a temperature increase of (a) 1(C, (b) 2(C, (c) 3(C, and (d) 4(C
above current levels.
in recruitment. At a temperature increase of 3(C, we could recruitment of the eastern Scotian Shelf, northern Gulf of
expect to see the disappearance of the Kattegat and North St. Lawrence, southern Newfoundland, Greenland, and
Sea stocks. The southernmost stocks in the western Atlantic Kara Sea stocks would no longer increase. Only in the south-
(Georges Bank, the Gulf of Maine, and the Browns Bank/Bay ern Gulf of St. Lawrence and southern Labrador/northern
of Fundy) would all decline. Icelandic stocks would begin to Newfoundland stocks would recruitment continue to in-
show signs of declining recruitment, joining the Faroes and crease. It should be noted that even small changes in the re-
the West Scotland stocks on the eastern side of the Atlantic. cruitment rates, either positive or negative, could lead to
Recruitment of the Barents Sea stocks would level off, as potentially large increases or decreases, respectively, in the
would the southern Grand Banks stocks, but most of the Ca- abundance of the individual cod stocks.
nadian stocks, as well as those off West Greenland and in the
Kara Sea, would continue to improve. If there were a 4(C
temperature change, the Georges Bank stock is likely to dis- Range extension
appear. The Norwegian coastal cod stocks would begin to see It is quite clear that, with future warming, there will be
declining recruitment along with the Flemish Cap stock. The a northward migration of cod similar to the response
1334 K. F. Drinkwater
observed during the warm periods in the 20th century. But temperature (Dutil and Brander, 2003). Coupled with antic-
how far north could they go? Cod can be expected to occupy ipated distributions of the northward extensions, the overall
the entire Labrador Shelf as they did during the warm peri- production of Atlantic cod should, therefore, increase, even
od of the 1950s and 1960s and, perhaps, extend farther with the potential disappearance of some of the southern
north along the Baffin Island Shelf. They would also be ex- stocks. Also, I might have overestimated the negative effect
pected to occupy the West Greenland coast north of Disko on those southern stocks, since the warming is generally es-
Island as in the 1930s to the 1960s, as well as the east timated to be less for the southern regions than the maxi-
Greenland coast as far north as the Denmark Strait. They mum 4(C scenario I used (Figure 5). In addition,
will increase their numbers off northern Iceland and, in warming in northern regions could exceed 4(C, which
the Barents Sea, will spread east to Nova Zemlya and north would lead to even higher production rates. The increase
as the Polar Front moves northeastwards. They will also in production would be caused by improved growth rates,
decrease. There will be higher growth rates and fish in bet- I have only considered changes in ocean temperatures as-
ter condition in most of the regions, which will lead to an sociated with local atmospheric heating. Temperature may
overall higher production of Atlantic cod. also change substantially owing to variations in the circula-
These projections have been made ignoring other impor- tion patterns, as well as in the strength of the mixing and
tant human impacts, such as industrial fishing or unantici- stratification, and these, in turn, could affect biological
pated ecosystem reorganization. We know that fishing has components of the ecosystem important to cod. I have not
played and will continue to play a strong and, in some dealt with these latter properties because of the much
cases, a dominant role in fish abundance, distribution, and higher uncertainty in variables such as wind and
growth. It is argued that fishing has played a major role precipitation.
in the collapse of the northern cod stocks (Hutchings and Finally, it is important to note that the response to tem-
Myers, 1994b; Hutchings, 1996), as well as the decline in perature change is not, in most cases, a direct response,
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