Statistics P2 Sec B

1a. [4 marks]
The time it takes Suzi to drive from home to work each morning is normally distributed
with a mean of 35 minutes and a standard deviation of 𝜎 minutes.
On 25% of days, it takes Suzi longer than 40 minutes to drive to work.
Find the value of 𝜎.

Markscheme
METHOD 1
𝑇 ∼ N(35, 𝜎 ! )
P(𝑇 > 40) = 0.25 or P(𝑇 < 40) = 0.75 (M1)
attempt to solve for 𝜎 graphically or numerically using the GDC (M1)
graph of normal curve 𝑇 ∼ N(35, 𝜎 ! ) for P(𝑇 > 40) and 𝑦 = 0.25 OR P(𝑇 < 40) and 𝑦 =
0.75
OR table of values for P(𝑇 < 40) or P(𝑇 > 40)
𝜎 = 7.413011 …
𝜎 = 7.41 (min) A2

METHOD 2
𝑇 ∼ N(35, 𝜎 ! )
P(𝑇 > 40) = 0.25 or P(𝑇 < 40) = 0.75 (M1)
𝑧 = 0.674489 … (A1)
valid equation using their 𝑧-score (clearly identified as 𝑧-score and not
a probability) (M1)
"#$%&
'
= 0.674489 … OR 5 = 0.674489 … 𝜎

7.413011 …
𝜎 = 7.41 (min) A1

[4 marks]
1b. [2 marks]
On a randomly selected day, find the probability that Suzi’s drive to work will take longer
than 45 minutes.

Markscheme
P(𝑇 > 45) (M1)
= 0.0886718 …
= 0.0887 A1

[2 marks]
1c. [3 marks]
Suzi will be late to work if it takes her longer than 45 minutes to drive to work. The time
it takes to drive to work each day is independent of any other day.
Suzi will work five days next week.
Find the probability that she will be late to work at least one day next week.

Markscheme
recognizing binomial probability (M1)
𝐿 ∼ B(5, 0.0886718 … )
P(𝐿 ≥ 1) = 1 − P(𝐿 = 0) OR
P(𝐿 ≥ 1) = P(𝐿 = 1) + P(𝐿 = 2) + P(𝐿 = 3) + P(𝐿 = 4) + P(𝐿 = 5) (M1)
0.371400 …
P(𝐿 ≥ 1) = 0.371 A1

[3 marks]
1d. [5 marks]
Given that Suzi will be late to work at least one day next week, find the probability that she
will be late less than three times.

Markscheme
recognizing conditional probability in context (M1)
finding {𝐿 < 3} ∩ {𝐿 ≥ 1} = {𝐿 = 1, 𝐿 = 2} (may be seen in conditional
probability) (A1)
P(𝐿 = 1) + P(𝐿 = 2) = 0.36532 … (may be seen in conditional probability) (A1)
#.%)&%!…
𝑃(𝐿 < 3  𝐿 ≥ 1) = #.%+,"#… (A1)

0.983636 …
0.984 A1

[5 marks]
1e. [4 marks]
Suzi will work 22 days this month. She will receive a bonus if she is on time at least 20
of those days.
So far this month, she has worked 16 days and been on time 15 of those days.
Find the probability that Suzi will receive a bonus.

Markscheme
METHOD 1
recognizing that Suzi can be late no more than once (in the remaining six days) (M1)
X ∼ B(6, 0.0886718 … ), where 𝑋 is the number of days late (A1)
P(𝑋 ≤ 1) = P(𝑋 = 0) + P(𝑋 = 1) (M1)
= 0.907294 …
P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0.907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

METHOD 2
recognizing that Suzi must be on time at least five times (of the remaining six
days) (M1)
X ∼ B(6, 0.911328 … ), where 𝑋 is the number of days on time (A1)
P(𝑋 ≥ 5) = 1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 4) OR 1 − 0.0927052 … OR P(𝑋 = 5) + (𝑋 = 6) OR 0.334434 … +
0.572860 … (M1)
= 0.907294 …
P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0.907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

[4 marks]
2a. [2 marks]
A bakery makes two types of muffins: chocolate muffins and banana muffins.
The weights, 𝐶 grams, of the chocolate muffins are normally distributed with a mean of
62g and standard deviation of 2.9g.
Find the probability that a randomly selected chocolate muffin weighs less than 61 g.

Markscheme
P(𝐶 < 61) (M1)
= 0.365112 …
= 0.365 A1

[2 marks]
2b. [2 marks]
In a random selection of 12 chocolate muffins, find the probability that exactly 5 weigh less
than 61 g.

Markscheme
recognition of binomial eg 𝑋 ∼ B(12,  0.365 … ) (M1)
P(𝑋 = 5) = 0.213666 …
= 0.214 A1

[2 marks]
2c. [4 marks]
The weights, 𝐵 grams, of the banana muffins are normally distributed with a mean of
68g and standard deviation of 3.4g.
Each day 60% of the muffins made are chocolate.
On a particular day, a muffin is randomly selected from all those made at the bakery.
Find the probability that the randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g.

Markscheme
Let 𝐶𝑀 represent ‘chocolate muffin’ and 𝐵𝑀 represent ‘banana muffin’
P(𝐵 < 61) = 0.0197555. .. (A1)

EITHER
P(𝐶𝑀) × P(𝐶 < 61  𝐶𝑀) + P(𝐵𝑀) × P(𝐵 < 61  𝐵𝑀) (or equivalent in words) (M1)

OR
tree diagram showing two ways to have a muffin weigh < 61 (M1)

THEN
(0.6 × 0.365 … ) + (0.4 × 0.0197 … ) (A1)
= 0.226969 …
= 0.227 A1

[4 marks]
2d. [3 marks]
Given that a randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g, find the probability that it is
chocolate.

Markscheme
recognizing conditional probability (M1)

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols, not just P(𝐴  𝐵)

#.)×#.%)&,,!…
#.!!).).…
(A1)

= 0.965183 …
= 0.965 A1

[3 marks]
2e. [5 marks]
The machine that makes the chocolate muffins is adjusted so that the mean weight of
the chocolate muffins remains the same but their standard deviation changes to 𝜎g.
The machine that makes the banana muffins is not adjusted. The probability that the
weight of a randomly selected muffin from these machines is less than 61g is now 0.157.
Find the value of 𝜎.

Markscheme
METHOD 1
P(𝐶𝑀) × P(𝐶 < 61  𝐶𝑀) × P(𝐵𝑀) × P(𝐵 < 61  𝐵𝑀) = 0.157 (M1)
Z0.6 × P(𝐶 < 61)[ + (0.4 × 0.0197555 … ) = 0.157

P(𝐶 < 61) = 0.248496 … (A1)

attempt to solve for 𝜎 using GDC (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a graph or table of values to show their P(𝐶 < 61) with a variable
standard deviation.

𝜎 = 1.47225 …
𝜎 = 1.47 (g) A2

METHOD 2
P(𝐶𝑀) × P(𝐶 < 61  𝐶𝑀) × P(𝐵𝑀) × P(𝐵 < 61  𝐵𝑀) = 0.157 (M1)
Z0.6 × P(𝐶 < 61)[ + (0.4 × 0.0197555 … ) = 0.157

P(𝐶 < 61) = 0.248496 … (A1)

use of inverse normal to find 𝑧 score of their P(𝐶 < 61) (M1)
𝑧 = −0.679229 …
correct substitution (A1)
61 − 62
= −0.679229 …
𝜎
𝜎 = 1.47225 …
𝜎 = 1.47 (g) A1

[5 marks]
5a. [4 marks]
A healthy human body temperature is 37.0 °C. Eight people were medically examined and
the difference in their body temperature (°C), from 37.0 °C, was recorded. Their heartbeat
(beats per minute) was also recorded.

Draw a scatter diagram for temperature difference from 37 °C (𝑥) against heartbeat (𝑦).
Use a scale of 2 cm for 0.1 °C on the horizontal axis, starting with −0.3 °C. Use a scale of 1 cm
for 2 heartbeats per minute on the vertical axis, starting with 60 beats per minute.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
 (A4)
Note: Award (A1) for correct scales, axis labels, minimum 𝑥 = −0.3, and minimum 𝑦 = 60.
Award (A0) if axes are reversed and follow through for their points.
Award (A3) for all eight points correctly plotted,
(A2) for six or seven points correctly plotted.
(A1) for four or five points correctly plotted.
Allow a tolerance of half a small square.
If graph paper has not been used, award at most (A1)(A0)(A0)(A0).
If accuracy cannot be determined award (A0)(A0)(A0)(A0).
[4 marks]
5b. [1 mark]
Write down, for this set of data the mean temperature difference from 37 °C, 𝑥.

Markscheme
,
0.025 ]"#^ (A1)

[1 mark]
5c. [1 mark]
Write down, for this set of data the mean number of heartbeats per minute, 𝑦.

Markscheme
74 (A1)
[1 mark]
5d. [2 marks]
Plot and label the point M(𝑥, 𝑦) on the scatter diagram.

Markscheme
the point M labelled, correctly plotted on their diagram (A1)(A1)(ft)
Note: Award (A1) for labelled M. Do not accept any other label. Award (A1)(ft) for their
point M correctly plotted. Follow through from part (b).
[2 marks]
5e. [2 marks]
Use your graphic display calculator to find the Pearson’s product–moment correlation
coefficient, 𝑟.

Markscheme
0.807 (0.806797…) (G2)
[2 marks]
5f. [2 marks]
Hence describe the correlation between temperature difference from 37 °C and heartbeat.

Markscheme
(moderately) strong, positive (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)
Note: Award (A1) for (moderately) strong, (A1) for positive. Follow through from part
(d)(i). If there is no answer to part (d)(i), award at most (A0)(A1).
[2 marks]
5g. [2 marks]
Use your graphic display calculator to find the equation of the regression line 𝑦 on 𝑥.

Markscheme
𝑦 = 22.0𝑥 + 73.5  (𝑦 = 21.9819 … 𝑥 + 73.4504 … ) (G2)
Note: Award (G1) for 22.0𝑥, (G1) for 73.5.
Award a maximum of (G0)(G1) if the answer is not an equation.
[2 marks]
5h. [2 marks]
Draw the regression line 𝑦 on 𝑥 on the scatter diagram.

Markscheme
their regression line correctly drawn on scatter diagram (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)
Note: Award (A1)(ft) for a straight line, using a ruler, intercepting their mean point, and
(A1)(ft) for intercepting the 𝑦-axis at their 73.5 and the gradient of the line is positive. If
graph paper is not used, award at most (A1)(A0). Follow through from part (e).
[2 marks]
6a. [2 marks]
Emlyn plays many games of basketball for his school team. The number of minutes he plays
in each game follows a normal distribution with mean 𝑚 minutes.
In any game there is a 30 % chance he will play less than 13.6 minutes.
Sketch a diagram to represent this information.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
 (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for bell shaped curve with mean 𝑚 or 13.6 indicated. Award (A1) for
approximately correct shaded region.

[2 marks]
6b. [2 marks]
In any game there is a 70 % chance he will play less than 17.8 minutes.
Show that 𝑚 = 15.7.

Markscheme
P(𝑇 > 17.8) = 0.3 (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation using 0.3 OR correctly shaded diagram
indicating 17.8. Strict or weak inequalities are accepted in parts (b), (c) and (d).

,%.)/,+.0 ,+.0$,%.) ,+.0$,%.)
!
]17.8 − !
^ OR ]13.6 + !
^ (M1)

,%.)/,+.0 ,+.0$,%.) ,+.0$,%.)
Note: Award (M0)(M1) for unsupported ! OR ]17.8 − !
^ OR ]13.6 + !
^
OR the midpoint of 13.6 and 17.8 is 15.7.
Award at most (M1)(M0) if the final answer is not seen. Award (M0)(M0) for using known
values 𝑚 = 15.7 and 𝜎 = 4 to validate P(𝑇 < 17.8) = 0.7 or P(𝑇 < 13.6) = 0.3.

15.7 (AG)

[2 marks]
6c. [2 marks]
The standard deviation of the number of minutes Emlyn plays in any game is 4.
Find the probability that Emlyn plays between 13 minutes and 18 minutes in a game.

Markscheme
P(13 ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 18) (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram indicating
13 and 18.

0.468 (46.8%, 0.467516 … ) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
6d. [2 marks]
Find the probability that Emlyn plays more than 20 minutes in a game.

Markscheme
P(𝑇 ≥ 20) (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram indicating
20.

0.141 (14.1%, 0.141187 … ) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
6e. [2 marks]
There is a 60 % chance Emlyn plays less than 𝑥 minutes in a game.
Find the value of 𝑥.

Markscheme
P(𝑇 < 𝑡) = 0.6 (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR for a correctly shaded region with 𝑥
indicated to the right-hand side of the mean.

16.7 (16.7133 … ) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
6f. [3 marks]
Emlyn will play in two basketball games today.
Find the probability he plays between 13 minutes and 18 minutes in one game and more
than 20 minutes in the other game.

Markscheme
0.467516 … × 0.141187 … × 2 (M1)(M1)

OR

(0.467516 … × 0.141187 … ) + (0.141187 … × 0.467516 … ) (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for the multiplication of their parts (c)(i) and (c)(ii), (M1) for
multiplying their product by 2 or for adding their products twice. Follow through from part
(c).

0.132 (13.2%, 0.132014 … ) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Award (G0) for an unsupported final answer of 0.066007 …

[3 marks]
6g. [2 marks]
Emlyn and his teammate Johan each practise shooting the basketball multiple times from a
point 𝑋. A record of their performance over the weekend is shown in the table below.

On Monday, Emlyn and Johan will practise and each will shoot 200 times from point 𝑋.
Find the expected number of successful shots Emlyn will make on Monday, based on the
results from Saturday and Sunday.

Markscheme
).
,#!
× 200 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability multiplied by 200.

135 (135.294 … ) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
6h. [2 marks]
Emlyn claims the results from Saturday and Sunday show that his expected number of
successful shots will be more than Johan’s.
Determine if Emlyn’s claim is correct. Justify your reasoning.

Markscheme
)+
].0 × 200 =^ 136.734 … (A1)

Note: Award (M1) for 137 or 136.734 … seen.

Emlyn is incorrect, 135 < 137 (135.294 … < 136.734 … ) (R1)

Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be seen.
Award at most (A0)(R1)(ft) for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and (g).

OR

)+ ).
].0 =^ 0.684 (0.683673 … ) ],#! =^ 0.676 (0.676470 … ) (A1)

Note: Award (A1) for both correct probabilities seen.

Emlyn is incorrect, 0.676 < 0.684 (R1)

Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be seen.
Award at most (A0)(R1)(ft) for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and (g).

[2 marks]
7a. [2 marks]
On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The amusement
park’s main attractions are rollercoasters (𝑅), water slides (𝑊), and virtual reality rides
(𝑉).
The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are shown in
the Venn diagram.

A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.
Find the value of 𝑎.

Markscheme
74 − (32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 − 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(𝑎 =) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
7b. [2 marks]
Find the value of 𝑏.

Markscheme
100 − (74 + 18) (M1)
OR
100 − 92 (M1)
OR
100 − (32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through from part (a)(i) but
only for 𝑎 ≥ 0.

(𝑏 =) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of 𝑏 must be greater or equal to zero for
the (A1)(ft) to be awarded.

[2 marks]
7c. [2 marks]
Find the number of students who visited at least two types of main attraction.

Markscheme
9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
7d. [1 mark]
Write down the value of 𝑛( 𝑅 ∩ 𝑊) .

Markscheme
14 (A1)
[1 mark]
7e. [2 marks]
Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the rollercoasters.

Markscheme
&0 !.
,##
]&# , 0.58, 58%^ (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct denominator. Award
(A0) for 58 only.

[2 marks]
7f. [1 mark]
Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the virtual reality rides.

Markscheme
"& .
,##
]!# , 0.45, 45%^ (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]
7g. [2 marks]
Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii) are independent. Justify
your reasoning.

Markscheme
they are not independent (A1)(ft)
&0 "& ,+
,##
× ,## ≠ ,## OR 0.261 ≠ 0.17 (R1)

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be awarded.
Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]