STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL -

CONTROL CHARTS

Dr. M. S. Memon
Department of Industrial Engineering & Management
Mehran University of Engineering and Technology

https://msmemon.wordpress.com/scmlab/
Production Process
Statistical Process Control
Statistical Process Control Steps
 Introduction

• A control chart is a graphical tool for monitoring the activity of an

ongoing process.
• Control charts are sometimes referred to as Shewhart control
charts, because Walter A. Shewhart first proposed their general
theory.
• The values of the quality characteristic are plotted along the vertical
axis, and the horizontal axis represents the samples, or subgroups (in
order of time), from which the quality characteristic is found.
• Samples of a certain size (say, 4 or 5 observations) are selected, and
the quality characteristic (say, average length) is calculated based on
the number of observations in the sample. These characteristics are
then plotted in the order in which the samples were taken.
• Figure 6-1 shows a typical control chart
Introduction
 Introduction

• Three lines are indicated on the control chart.

• The centerline, which typically represents the average value of
the characteristic being plotted, is an indication of where the
process is centered.
• Two limits, the upper control limit and the lower control
limit, are used to make decisions regarding the process.
• If the points plot within the control limits and do not exhibit
any identifiable pattern, the process is said to be in statistical
control.
• If a point plots outside the control limits or if an identifiable
nonrandom pattern exists (such as 12 out of 14 successive
points plotting above the centerline), the process is said to be
out of statistical control.
 Introduction – Benefits of Control Charts
Several benefits can be realized by using control charts. Such charts indicate
the following:
1. When to take corrective action. A control chart indicates when something
may be wrong so that corrective action can be taken.
2. Type of remedial action necessary. The pattern of the plot on a control
chart diagnoses possible causes and hence indicates possible remedial
actions.
3. When to leave a process alone. Variation is part of any process. A control
chart shows when an exhibited variability is normal and inherent such that
no corrective action is necessary.
4. Process capability. If the control chart shows a process to be in statistical
control, we can estimate the capability of the process and hence its ability
to meet customer requirements. This helps product and process design.
5. Possible means of quality improvement. The control chart provides a
baseline for instituting and measuring quality improvement. Control charts
also provide useful information regarding actions to take for quality
improvement.
 Introduction – CAUSES OF VARIATION

• Special Causes
– Variability caused by special or assignable causes is something that
is not inherent in the process. That is, it is not part of the process as
designed and does not affect all items. Special causes can be the use
of a wrong tool, an improper raw material, or an incorrect procedure.
– Deming believed that 15% of all problems are due to special causes.
• Common Causes
– Variability due to common or chance causes is something inherent to
a process. It exists as long as the process is not changed and is
referred to as the natural variation in a process. It is an inherent part
of the process design and effects all items.
– A process operating under a stable system of common causes is said
to be in statistical control.
 STATISTICAL BASIS FOR CONTROL CHARTS

• Basic Principles
– A control chart has a centerline and lower and upper control limits.
The centerline is usually found in accordance with the data in the
samples. It is an indication of the mean of a process and is usually
found by taking the average of the values in the sample. However, the
centerline can also be a desirable target or standard value.
– Normal distributions play an important role in the use of control
charts (Duncan 1986). The values of the statistic plotted on a control
chart (e.g., average diameter) are assumed to have an approximately
normal distribution.
 STATISTICAL BASIS FOR CONTROL CHARTS

• Basic Principles
– The control limits are two lines, one above and one below the centerline, that
aid in the decision-making process.
– These limits are chosen so that the probability of the sample points falling
between them is almost 1 (usually about 99.7% for 3ó limits) if the process is
in statistical control.
– As discussed previously, if a system is operating under a stable system of
common causes, it is assumed to be in statistical control.
– Typical control limits are placed at 3 standard deviations away from the mean
of the statistic being plotted. Normal distribution theory states that a sample
statistic will fall within the limits 99.74% of the time if the process is in
control.
– If a point falls outside the control limits, there is a reason to believe that a
special cause exists in the system. We must then try to identify the special
cause and take corrective action to bring the process back to control.
 STATISTICAL BASIS FOR CONTROL CHARTS

• Control charts are important management control tools.

• If management has some target value in mind for the process
mean (say, average part strength), a control chart can be
constructed with that target value as the centerline.
• Sample statistics, when plotted on the control chart, will show
how close the actual process output comes to the desired
standard.
• If the deviation is unsatisfactory, management will have to
come up with remedial actions.
 STATISTICAL BASIS FOR CONTROL CHARTS

• Control charts help management set realistic goals.

• For example, suppose the output of a process shows that the
average part strength is 3000 kg, with a standard deviation of
100 kg.
• If management has a target average strength of at least 3500 kg,
the control chart will indicate that such a goal is unrealistic and
may not be feasible for the existing process.
• Major changes in the system and process, possibly only
through action on the part of management, will be needed to
create a process that will meet the desired goal.
 STATISTICAL BASIS FOR CONTROL CHARTS

• If a process is under statistical control, control chart

information can estimate such process parameters as the mean,
standard deviation, and the proportion of nonconforming items
(also known as fallout).
• These estimates can then be used to determine the capability of
the process. Process capability refers to the ability of the
process to produce within desirable specifications.
Selection of Control Limits
Selection of Control Limits
 Example

• A semiautomatic turret lathe machines the thickness of a part

that is subsequently used in an assembly. The process mean is
known to be 30 mm with a standard deviation of 1.5 mm.
Construct a control chart for the average thickness using 3σ
limits if samples of size 5 are randomly selected from the
process. Table 6-1 shows the average thickness of 15 samples
selected from the process. Plot these on a control chart, and
make inferences.
Example
Example
 Example

• The centerline and

control limits are shown
in Figure 6-2. The
sample means for the 15
samples shown in Table
6-1 are plotted on this
control chart.
• Figure 6-2 shows that all
of the sample means are
within the control limits.
• Also, the pattern of the
plot does not exhibit any
nonrandom behavior.
• Thus, we conclude that
the process is in control.
 Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts

• Making inferences from a control chart is analogous to testing a

hypothesis.
• Suppose that we are interested in testing the null hypothesis that the
average diameter θ of a part from a particular process is 25 mm. This
situation is represented by the null hypothesis H0: θ = 25; the
alternative hypothesis is Ha: θ ≠ 25. The rejection region of the null
hypothesis is thus twotailed.
• The control limits are the critical points that separate the rejection
and acceptance regions. If a sample value (sample average diameter,
in this case) falls above the upper control limit or below the lower
control limit, we reject the null hypothesis. In such a case, we
conclude that the process mean differs from 25 mm and the process
is therefore out of control.
• Types I and II errors can occur when making inferences from control
charts.
 Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts

• Type I errors result from inferring that a process is out of control

when it is actually in control.
• The probability of a type I error is denoted by α.
• Suppose that a process is in control. If a point on the control chart
falls outside the control limits, we assume that the process is out of
control.
• However, since the control limits are a finite distance (usually, 3
standard deviations) from the mean, there is a small chance (about
0.0026) of a sample statistic falling outside the control limits.
• In such instances, inferring that the process is out of control is a
wrong conclusion.
• Figure 6-3 shows the probability of making a type I error in control
charts. It is the sum of the two tail areas outside the control limits.
Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts
 Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts

• Type II errors result from inferring that a process is in control

when it is really out of control.
• If no observations fall outside the control limits, we conclude
that the process is in control. Suppose, however, that a process
is actually out of control.
• Perhaps the process mean has changed (say, an operator has
inadvertently changed a depth of cut or the quality of raw
materials has decreased). Or, the process could go out of
control because the process variability has changed (due to the
presence of a new operator).
• Under such circumstances, a sample statistic could fall within
the control limits, yet the process would be out of control—this
is a type II error.
Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts
 Errors in Making Inferences from Control Charts

• Let's consider Figure 6-4, which depicts a process going out of

control due to a change in the process mean from A to B.
• For this situation, the correct conclusion is that the process is
out of control.
• However, there is a strong possibility of the sample statistic
falling within the control limits (as indicated by the shaded
area), in which case we would conclude that the process is in
control and thus make a type II error.
 Example

• A control chart is to be constructed for the average breaking

strength of nylon fibers. Samples of size 5 are randomly chosen
from the process. The process mean and standard deviation are
estimated to be 120 kg and 8 kg, respectively.
a) If the control limits are placed 3 standard deviations from the
process mean, what is the probability of a type I error?
b) If the process mean shifts to 125 kg, what is the probability of
concluding that the process is in control and hence making a type II
error on the first sample plotted after the shift?
c) What is the probability of detecting the shift by the second sample
plotted after the shift if the samples are chosen independently?
Example
 Example

• Similarly, the Z-value at the lower control limit is —3.00. For

these Z-values in the standard normal table in Appendix A-3,
each tail area is found to be 0.0013. The probability of a type I
error, as shown by the shaded tail areas in Figure 6-5a, is
therefore 0.0026.
Example
Example
Example
Example
 ANALYSIS OF PATTERNS IN CONTROL CHARTS

• One of the main objectives of using control charts is to

determine when a process is out of control so that necessary
actions may be taken.
• Criteria other than a plotted point falling outside the control
limits are also used to determine whether a process is out of
control.
• We discuss some rules for out-of-control processes next.
 Some Rules for Identifying an Out-of-Control Process

• Rule 1 A process is assumed to be out of control if a single

point plots outside the control limits.
 Some Rules for Identifying an Out-of-Control Process

• Rule 2 A process is assumed to be out of control if two out of

three consecutive points fall outside the 2σ warning limits on
the same side of the centerline.
 Some Rules for Identifying an Out-of-Control Process

• Rule 3 A process is assumed to be out of control if four out of

five consecutive points fall beyond the 1σ limit on the same
side of the centerline.
 Some Rules for Identifying an Out-of-Control Process

• Rule 4 A process is assumed to be out of control if nine or

more consecutive points fall to one side of the centerline.
 Some Rules for Identifying an Out-of-Control Process

• Rule 5 A process is assumed to be out of control if there is a

run of six or more consecutive points steadily increasing or
decreasing.
 Home Work (Assignment #01)

• The diameter of copper pipe produced by an automatic machine

is a characteristic of interest. Historical data shows that the
process average diameter is 15 mm with a process standard
deviation of 0.8 mm. If samples of size 4 are randomly selected
from the process:
a) Find the 1σ and 2σ control limits.
b) Find the 3 σ control limits for the average diameter.
c) What is the probability of a false alarm?
d) If the process mean shifts to 14.5 mm, what is the probability of not
detecting this shift on the first sample plotted after the shift?
e) What is the probability of failing to detect the shift by the second
sample plotted after the shift?