Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011

Volume 1, Issue 17

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
many financial troubles that keep the markets on the edge of their seats. We will most likely have some Euro risk this week posing a threat to current Euro strength as it trades near the months highs. We expect much volatility in the euro pairs tomorrow with Trichet due to testify on debt crisis before the European Parliament's Economic Committee, in Brussels tomorrow at 9am est.

In this issue: GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD Swiss Pairs EURUSD EURJPY GBPJPY Event Risk Contact Info Disclaimer 5 4 3 1 2

The Symposium comes to a close with Ben Bernanke being vague on what the Fed's next move will be. The use of terminology such as "range of tools" may have been interpreted as still a glimmer of hope that the Fed will move into QE3 action in the future. The USD dollar initial reaction Friday was strength when no QE3 was stated, but as traders read into what was said, a sharp dollar sell off across major pairs was the move into the weekend. The markets looking for something to grab onto for some stability. The Euro-zone still has

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: The pound had come off it's low of last week at 1.6208 sharply moving to 1.6370 at the close of Friday. The pullback off the top of 1.6620 looks to be coming to an end and a resumption of the bullish move towards 1.6730 may be in progress with a higher low for the month at 1.6208 from a daily perspective. Some consolidation may occur prior to the continuation of this bullish move to new highs this year. A longer term look gives possibility of this pair approaching 1.7000 area in the next few months. For the near term expect consolidation and small moves in both directions, a break above 1.6620 gives stronger confirmation of the bullish continuation. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, with this pair making a sharp reversal on Friday from low at 1.6208 up to 1.6370 close, we see for the near term a move back up to 1.6460-1.6500 very probable. Seek support at 1.6300 area, 1.6260 and 1.6208. A possible pullback to one of these levels before move up is very possible and likely.

Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011

Volume 1, Issue 17

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: The Aussie has continued its recovery last week from this months lows at .9925 up towards the 1.0600 level. This pair is looking for a top prior to it's next move down. The RBA possible looking to lower interest rates over the next 12 months gives confidence that this pair will make another move lower in the long term. For now we are looking at this pair to find tops near 1.0630, 1.0680 and 1.0730 areas. Aussie data this week looking to be somewhat positive may give the currency a boost up to these levels. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, trading in the middle of it's monthly range we see for the short term a move up towards the 1.0700 area. Support sits at 1.0520 1.0480 1.0440 1.0366 and 1.0315.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is similar to the AUDUSD with its current outlook. A move to higher resistance is very probable for the short term. A move back to new lows is our longer term outlook for the months to come. For now we see this pair moving towards .8500-.8620 for it's next move higher. Recommendation: Neutral, trading it the middle of it's monthly range we see a move to .8500-.8620 most likely for the near term outlook. Support sits at .8350 .8315 .8270 area and .8170. Also, can't rule out top may be in place at .8420 area, which would give reason to start looking at short opportunities.

Swiss FrancBased Pairs

Swiss Pairs: USDCHF, GBPCHF, EURCHF all gained strength to close the week breaking out of their congested range they were trading in. Each pair looks to break higher for the near term all looking very similar. Consider when trading these pairs that Switzerland SNB possible will take further measures to weaken their currency through various measures, which is what continues to push these pairs higher. They are all coming to some very important technical levels and trend line resistance. If these trend lines hold as resistance, moves to the bearish side will be most likely. Each pair is days away from hitting these trend line resistance areas and this will be a critical juncture for the bulls to continue or transition to bears for the weeks to come. Keep a close eye on these trend line areas for each of these Swiss pairs. A daily close above these trend lines will give great confidence for the bulls to continue.

Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011

Volume 1, Issue 17

Elite Global Trading

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: Trading near this months highs gives for a possible breakout above 1.4530 to continue its move up to new highs. Trichet testifying on Monday may bring some volatility with a possibility of keeping this the current congestion range in perspective for the start of the week. If the current levels of 1.4500 and 1.4530 hold we look to see another move down to support levels. The longer term outlook is still bearish with the 1.4530 holding a break higher will bring Bullish momentum in to play with a possibility of 1.5000 over the next few months. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, the pair continues to trade in the range below 1.4530 and we look for possible short opportunity below this level down to support. A break higher will put bullish opportunities into perspective. Another move down can not be ruled out and needs to be looked at with caution, the pair has been in the range between 1.4060-1.4530 for a month now and may continue to trade within this triangle pattern that has been created since May. With uncertainty around the world its best to play this pair with caution, because it tends to change direction with sharp moves in short periods of time. Support areas 1.4480 1.4418 1.4360 1.4308 1.4230. Sunday's open will be interesting to see with it trading near the highs, after Trichet's speech on Saturday the pair may open with a gap in either direction.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: The Yen still very strong across most of its counter currencies. We see the possibility of a break higher for the EURJPY in the near term. The pair has strong resistance at 111.60 area which is a fib level and a trend line resistance area keeping this pair in a downward trend view. The break of this area will give a strong possibility of a move towards 114.00. If this area holds we will most likely get another move down towards the lows of 108.00 area. The BOJ has only threatened to take action with an intervention and will most likely we will see the YEN gain more strength before they do take any action. Recommendation: Neutral Bias, Short term outlook is for a move down towards support levels prior to break up beyond the 111.60 level. A daily close above the 111.60 gives strong confirmation for bullish move up to higher levels. Support levels to watch for 110.80 110.30 109.82 and 109.40. We are watching this 111.60 level closely.

Aug 28th Sep 03rd 2011

Volume 1, Issue 17

Elite Global Trading

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY: The Pound/Yen looks similar to the EURO/YEN with it holding in a downward channel trading in the middle of it's monthly range at 125.50. A move up towards 128.00 is very possible in the near term. A move back down to lows also can not be ruled out. If the Yen gains strength and we see the USDJPY drop to lower levels, this pair is likely to follow. With a mixed bias, careful calculated trades are critical when trading the yen pairs. Recommendation: Neutral, short term congestion in current trading range is expected prior to it's next major move in either direction. We may have a higher low on the daily at 124.47, if this holds as a higher low, we will consider a move up towards 128.00 area.

Weeks Event Risk

AUD: Private Capital Expenditures 9:30pm Monday: EUR: German Prelim CPI USD: Personal Spending 8:30am EUR: Trichet Testifying before the European Parliament's Economic Committee 9am USD: Pending Home Sales 10am NZD: Building Consents 6:45pm Thursday: CHF: GDP 1:45am GBP: Nationwide HPI 2am CHF: Retail Sales 3:15am GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am USD: ISM Manufacturing 10am Tuesday: USD: Consumer Confidence 10am USD: FOMC Meeting Min 2pm NZD: Business Confidence 6:45pm Friday: GBP: Construction PMI 4:30am USD: Non-Farm Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate 8:30am AUD: Retail Sales 9:30pm

Wednesday: EUR: CPI Flash Estimates 5am USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 8:15am CNY: Manufacturing PMI 9pm

Elite Glob al Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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** Keep a close eye on US Debt Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday