Determining The Accuracy of Mineral Resource Estimation

Using Spatial Statistical Analysis – Case Study in

Nickel Laterite Ore
Waterman Sulistyana Bargawa 1, a), M. Anwar Safi’i1), Muhammad Tri Aditya2)
1
Faculty of Mineral Technology, UPN Veteran Yogyakarta, Jl. Ring Road Utara No.104, Yogyakarta Indonesia
2
State Polytechnic of Malang, Jl. Soekarno Hatta No.9, Malang, Jawa Timur Indonesia
a)
Corresponding author: waterman.sb@upnyk.ac.id

Abstract. Mineral resource modeling and estimation has an important role in determining grade-tonnage curves, ore
grade distribution, 3D model, mine boundaries and life of mine. The heterogeneity and homogeneity of ore grades affect
the accuracy of ore resource estimates. The mismatch of the variogram model causes the grade estimation to be
inaccurate. This study aims to determine the accuracy of mineral resource estimation using spatial statistical analysis. The
data in this study is the grade of nickel laterite ore. The research methodology starts from data entry to create a database
of each drilling data based on sample heterogeneity for the estimation of nickel laterite grade. The resource model
construction approximates the actual model to provide an accurate estimate. Geological modeling and estimation of
nickel ore grades in this study uses spatial interpolation techniques. Kriging is an interpolation technique through semi-
variogram and uses the concept of spatial correlation between data. Comparative linear regression analysis between the
model and composite data at the same block location in the XY-plot and the cumulative probability curve shows the
accuracy of the estimation results. Low CV (coefficient of variation) values and informative variogram parameters
facilitate the choice of estimation techniques, because all estimation techniques have the same relative accuracy.

INTRODUCTION
Nickel laterite generally has 3 zones, namely: limonite zone, saprolite zone, and bedrock. Each zone has a
different quantity and quality of resources [1]. Ore resource estimation has an important role in determining resource
grade-tonnage, ore grade distribution, 3D model estimation, mine boundaries, and mine life. The accuracy of the ore
resource estimate determines the amount of probable and proven reserves of production targets and ore mining
procedures. The heterogeneity and homogeneity of nickel ore need to be considered when estimating resources
because nickel ore undergoes different laterization in each zone [2]. The resource model must be close to the actual
model in order to provide accurate estimation results. Chemical and mineralogical analysis of each drilling data
needs to be done carefully because drill core conditions and sample heterogeneity pose challenges in estimating
nickel laterite grades [3]. An important part of geological modeling is related to geostatistics to represent the
observed data, we must use certain interpolation techniques. The most widely used technique is kriging which uses
spatial correlations between data and intends to construct interpolations through semi-variograms. [4]. The limonite,
saprolite, and bedrock zones describe the population of spatial statistics relevant for modeling [5]. To fulfill these
requirements, this study applies geostatistical techniques for spatial modeling of Ni grade in laterite Ni deposits.
Estimation accuracy requires a good and informative semivariogram model. The semivariogram model is defined by
a mathematical function, a commonly used parameter from experimental data [6]–[8]. The variation function is an
important tool to describe the spatial correlation characteristics of regionalized variables in geostatistical methods
[9]. The variogram model determines the sample search distance for assessment. Furthermore, estimation at
unsampled locations uses NNP (nearest neighbor polygon), IDW (inverse distance weighting), or kriging estimation
techniques. This estimation technique is very popular in the estimation of mineral resources. The two estimation
techniques, NNP and IDW, depend solely on distance, while the kriging estimation technique considers the spatial
correlation between data. Data validation of the resource model was carried out to determine the quality and
accuracy of the estimation technique. Resource model estimates were analyzed against original borehole data,
statistical analysis included linear regression, via QQ Plot comparisons, and histograms [10-12]. The accuracy of the
estimation technique determines the classification of nickel laterite resources. When the estimate has been made, the
value of the estimated result can be compared with the actual data value at the sample point location that has been
removed from the sample data set. The difference between the data value and the interpolated value is the error
value at that point.
Geostatistics gives a concept that each point in a deposit represents an example of a certain distribution in space,
but the distribution of other points may differ from other points in a deposit, both the mean and the variance. The
application of geostatistics has been widely developed in the earth sciences for exploration activities and estimating
mineral resources. Researchers have introduced methods for classifying resources minerals [13], [14]. Accurate
classification of mineral resources is produced using appropriate estimation methods. Traditional approaches to
geological domain modeling and geostatistical estimation provide a smooth representation of the deposit attributes
in question, ignore spatial variability, and thus, may mislead downstream decisions [15], [16], so the NNP or IDW
model is the estimation technique of choice. Classification of mineral resources as measured, indicated or inferred
depending on the level of confidence. Nickel laterite resource geologists need precise deposit estimation techniques.
This is based on various factors such as the geological or geometric model, the quality of the sampling, and, from a
geostatistical point of view, the distance between the boreholes. The methods or criteria used for classification are
not based on actual measures of uncertainty [17], [18].
Therefore, before carrying out the classification correctly, it is necessary to determine the accuracy of the
selected estimation technique. The objective of the research is to determine the accuracy of mineral resource grade
estimation using geostatistical analysis.

RESEARCH METHOD

The initial step taken before determining the accuracy of mineral resource estimation techniques is to analyze
statistical data, create a resource model that is adapted to the geological conditions of the origin of the resource
deposit, and then estimate the resource. Spatial statistics (geostatistics) is an analytical technique to measure the
distribution of a phenomenon based on space [19]. One of the spatial statistics is the variogram, the variogram is the
basic tool of geostatistics used to quantify the spatial correlation between samples [20]. Geology resource modeling
requires the right block size so that it greatly affects the accuracy of block estimation [21]. The block size is based
on the geological model of nickel ore, the distance between drills and the geometry of the mining tier. An important
dimension in mine geometry is the height of the bench. Determination of bench height is based on sample tests in
geotechnical laboratories for single slope testing. The tests included physical and mechanical properties
(compressive strength and shear strength) in the limonite and saprolite zones.
Fig. 1 shows the location of the drill hole in this study. This research focuses on the accuracy of nickel ore grade
estimation techniques at unsample locations.
 FIGURE 1. Location of drill holes for constructing geological model
Geological model becomes very important to determine block size for nickel laterite grade estimation (Fig. 2).

FIGURE 2. Illustration of blank block model (6.25x6.25x5) m

The selection of the initial stage of the estimation technique is based on the CV (coefficient of variation). A
small CV value indicates the flexibility of choosing an estimation technique. The most popular block estimation
methods are NNP, IDW, and OK (ordinary kriging). All three estimators have the same formula to solve the weight
of each sample:

Z∗¿ ∑ i w i z i
(1)

The largest NNP weight is the sample closest to the estimated block. While the weight of the inverse distance is
the distance.

1
d ik
w i= n (2)
1
∑ di k
i=1

The OK weight, w i , calculated by a formula:

n n

∑ wi .C ( i, j ) + µ=C (i , 0 ) , with ∑ wi=1 (3)

i i=1

Using a matrix solve equation (3):

[ ][ ] [ ]
C 11 ⋯ C1 n 1 w1 C 10
⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮⋅ ⋮ = ⋮
C n1 ⋯ C nn 1 wn Cn 0
1 ⋯ 1 0 μ 1
⏟ ⏟
⏟
(n+1 ) × ( n+1 ) ( n+1 ) × 1
( n+1 ) × 1 (4)
Remarks:
Cij : sample and sample covariance
C01 : block and sample covariance

The accuracy of the estimation technique is determined based on linear regression between the estimated
grade and the composite grade, the comparison of the trend of the block model and grade on the drilling data, and
the probability plot. Spatial statistical analysis resulted in the determination of accurate estimation techniques in the
research area.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Descriptive statistics

Basic statistical analysis is to find out the description of the data in the research area. Table 1 shows the
comparison between assay and composite in the limonite and saprolite zones.

TABLE 1. Results of statistical analysis between assays and composite in the limonite and saprolite zones (%Ni)
Assay Composite
Parameter
Limonite Saprolite Limonite Saprolite
Minimum Value 0.09 0.05 0.46 0.13
Maximum Value 4.04 6.53 3.52 6.53
N (no. of data) 2718 2086 596 370
Mean 1.10 1.25 1.15 1.26
Variance 0.18 1.09 0.16 0.51
Standard
0.42 1.05 0.40 0.71
Deviation
Coeff. of Variation 0.38 0.83 0.35 0.57
Median 1.03 0.92 1.08 1.11

Based on the table above, the standard deviation of the assay is greater than the composite. After the database is
clear, the next step is to construct topographic and geological models. Fig. 3 shows the geological model of nickel
laterite in the study area.

FIGURE 3. Geological model of nickel laterite deposit

 Semivariogram

Based on the difference in distance and sample configuration, the semivariogram shows how far a parameter will
affect the estimated value at the unsample location. The analysis of this semivariogram model is based on the spatial
correlation between the data to ensure that the data for estimation lies in the area of influence. In addition,
semivariogram describes the spatial correlation between observational data, and is an approach to solve the weight
of each observation data in estimating the grade of nickel laterite resources, especially in locations where there are
no data. Figures 4 and 5 show the results of variographic analysis in the limonite and saprolite zones. Fig. 4 and 5
show the results of variographic analysis in the limonite and saprolite zones.

FIGURE 4. Semivariogram: major, semi-major and minor in the limonite zone

 FIGURE 5. Semivariogram: major, semi-major and minor in the saprolite zone

Nickel Resource Estimation

The principle of estimating the grade and thickness of an ore deposit is to interpolate the grade and thickness of
the sample in the deposit [22]. Estimation of grades is carried out at points or locations for which the grade value or
thickness is not known. In this research, estimation techniques are nearest neighbor polygon (NNP), inverse distance
weighted (IDW), and ordinary kriging (OK) methods (Fig. 6-8).

(a) (b)
FIGURE 6. The estimation results of NNP technique on limonite zone (a), NNP technique on saprolite zone (b)
 (a) (b)
FIGURE 7. The estimation results of IDW technique on limonite zone (a), IDW technique on saprolite zone (b)

(a) (b)
FIGURE 8. The estimation results of OK technique on limonite zone (a), OK technique on saprolite zone (b)

In general (see Fig. 6-8), the visualization results between the composite and the NNP, IDW, and OK models
show similarities. However, the NNP model shows a significant difference in nickel grade at the boundary between
polygons. Table 2 shows the statistical comparison of NNP, IDW and OK techniques.

TABLE 2. Comparative statistical results of NNP, IDW and OK techniques

Composite NNP Model IDW Model OK Model
Parameter
L S L S L S L S
0.4
Minimum Value 0.13 0.46 0.13 0.52 0.33 0.61 0.40
6
3.5
Maximum Value 6.53 2.73 3.81 2.44 3.59 2.45 3.16
2
12,70
N (no. of data) 596 370 12,705 9,956 12,705 9,956 9,956
5
1.1
Mean 1.26 1.1 1.23 1.19 1.37 1.16 1.40
5
0.1
Variance 0.51 0.12 0.35 0.069 0.2 0.08 0.17
6
Standard 0.4
0.71 0.34 0.59 0.26 0.45 0.28 0.42
Deviation 0
Coeff. of Variation 0.3 0.57 0.31 0.44 0.22 0.33 0.24 0.31
 5
1.0
Median 1.11 1.04 1.13 1.17 1.3 1.12 1.34
8

Based on the comparison of the results of the statistical analysis above, in the limonite zone the IDW and OK
methods have the smallest CV, namely 0.22 and 0.24. As for the saprolite zone, the lowest CV is the IDW and OK
methods, which are 0.33 and 0.30. Although the CV of the NNP technique is higher than other methods, the value is
still below of 0.5, which means that it shows the similarity of the estimation results for nickel laterite grades. CV
composite is also around 0.5 indicating flexibility in the selection of technical estimates.

Nickel Laterite Scatter Plot

The next accuracy analysis is linear regression analysis. RMSE (root mean square error) shows the difference
between the composite data value and the estimated grade which indicates the error value at that point. Statistical
analysis on the linear regression technique is to consider the intersection of the Y-axis line and the cross-axis, the
value of the RMSE and the slope of the regression line.

FIGURE 9. Linear regression of IDW model in the limonite and saprolite zone

FIGURE 10. Linear regression of OK model in the limonite and saprolite zone
Fig. 9-10 shows the linear regression parameters in the limonite and saprolite zones. The regression line shows
the trend of similarity between IDW and OK. The estimation accuracy of the two techniques shows the similarity of
the results.
Table 3 shows a recapitulation of linear regression for each technique of nickel grade estimating.

TABLE 3. Linear regression results (cross validation)

Correlation
Y-
Model Coefficient Slope RMSE Discription
intercept
(r)
IDW
0.99 0.04 0.97 0.04 Verry Good
Limonite
IDW
0.97 0.10 0.93 0.11 Verry Good
Saprolite
 NNP
0.89 0.13 0.88 0.16 Verry Good
Limonite
NNP
0.85 0.19 0.85 0.33 Verry Good
Saprolite
OK
0.98 0.02 0.98 0.03 Verry Good
Limonite
OK
0.97 0.10 0.93 0.10 Verry Good
Saprolite

Nickel Laterite Probability Curve

Another method to analyze the model against the data is to compare the cumulative probability curve between
the estimated grade and composite data of nickel laterite grades. Visual analysis of the probability curves of
composite and block grades with probability curves was carried out at the same location. The results of this
comparison do not represent the overall performance of the model, but are the results of the performance estimation
techniques on the grade of blocks penetrated by exploration drilling [17].

FIGURE 11. Probability plot between composite and NNP, IDW and OK models

Based on the probability curve (Fig. 11) the estimated block grade of the three techniques shows that the NNP
technique is closest to the composite. Although the NNP technique has very good similarities, the red curve (NNP)
resembles a blue curve (composite), the IDW and OK techniques are slightly underestimated at low levels, but
overall the three estimation techniques provide quite good accuracy. The probability curve supports the flexibility of
choosing nickel grade estimation techniques in the research area.
Fig. 12 shows a visual comparison between the NNP, IDW, OK techniques and the drilling data. Overall, the
three techniques indicate a similar trend, which further facilitates the selection of a nickel laterite block grade
estimation technique. Due to the flexibility in the selection of the NNP, IDW, OK technique for the estimation of
nickel laterite block grades in this study, the OK technique was chosen to analyze the change in cut-off grade.
Grade-tonnage curve shows the relationship between cut-off grade parameters, average grade and tonnage.
 (a) (b)

(c)
FIGURE 12. Comparison of the visualization between: IDW model and drilling data (a), OK model and drilling data, NNP
models and drilling data (c)

Based on the grade-tonnage curve, the relationship between nickel grade and tonnage of nickel laterite ore is
very important in interpreting the inventory of nickel laterite resources in the study area. The cut-off grade provides
information on the lowest grade of nickel that is profitable to mine based on economic and technical conditions at
the time. This is an important analysis of the estimate to determine the resource tonnage and average nickel grade
for mining in the future. The cut-off grade simulation determines the nickel laterite resource tonnage: the higher the
cut-off grade, the less tonnage will be obtained and vice versa.

(a) (b)

FIGURE 13. Grade-tonnage curve of nickel laterite resources in the limonite zone (a) and saprolite zone (b)

TABLE 4. Recapitulation of the relationship between cut-off grade, average grade and tonnage in the limonite zone

Cut-off
Average Ni
Grade Tonnage
(%)
(%)
0.46 1.10 3,900,000
0.68 1.14 3,600,000
0.91 1.27 2,600,000
1.14 1.44 1,500,000
1.36 1.66 700,000
1.59 1.88 330,000
 1.82 2.02 170,000
2.04 2.25 60,000
2.27 2.55 20,000
2.50 2.68 11,000

TABLE 5. Recapitulation of the relationship between cut-off grade, average grade and tonnage in the saprolite zone

Cut-off Grade Average Ni

Tonnage
(%) (%)
0.13 1.23 3,100,000
0.49 1.30 2,800,000
0.86 1.52 2,100,000
1.23 1.79 1,300,000
1.60 2.06 700,000
1.97 2.33 400,000
2.33 2.66 170,000
2.70 2.85 90,000
3.07 3.26 8,000
3.442 3.81 1,000

Table 4-5 and Fig. 13 shows that if the cut-off grade is low, the tonnage of nickel resources will be higher and
will decrease as the cut-off grade increases. The grade-tonnage relationship curve is the basis for economic
considerations to obtain optimal profits in the mining industry.

CONCLUSIONS
Assessment of the accuracy of the estimation technique includes linear regression analysis between the model
and composite at the same block location, XY-plot, cumulative probability curve and visualization between the
model and drilling data. The low coefficient of variation value of the data and informative variogram parameters
make it flexible in the selection of estimation techniques. Under these conditions, all mineral grade estimation
techniques have the same relative accuracy. The accuracy of the nickel laterite resource grade estimation technique
determines the tonnage, average grade, and cut-off grade. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimation technique is
closely related to the grade-tonnage curve in order to provide a decision to determine the appropriate cut-off grade to
be applied to nickel laterite mining activities. Further research is conducting pit optimization to obtain the optimum
pit shell for nickel laterite mining.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank the Institute for Research and Community Service, LPPM UPN Veteran Yogyakarta,
Indonesia for providing cluster research grants for this research.

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