TEAM 22

The
A eronautical
A nalytical
A dvocates

Ross Datathon 2023

AIYANA SCOTT
DELANEY RYAN
KATIE GRANDINETTI
STEPHEN ANFIELD
REBECCA WONG
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Our group was presented with a problem statement focused on disruption in

the aviation industry and was immediately drawn to three key factors: 1) oil
prices, 2) weather patterns, and 3) flight delays. Through these three factors,
we already saw the potential for climate change to become the aviation
industry's next great challenge, even before conducting a more thorough
analysis. Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, the commercial airline industry has
the opportunity to proactively prepare and mitigate the negative impacts that
climate change will have on air travel. Given our attention, we decided to
focus on two main questions for executives of commercial airlines

1. Given the substantial contribution of the aviation industry to

greenhouse gas emissions, how will it adapt to the growing
number of new domestic and international policies and
sustainably-focused trends?
2. How will the commercial aviation industry brace for the
increasingly prevalent consequences of climate change in
the years ahead?

Policy trends, technological innovation, and consumer behavior patterns

typically mobilize in tri-fold such that marketing analysts can anticipate what
will drive the highest yield for their company. Green energy and sustainability
have been established as top drivers in all three categories as the shift
toward climate-safe initiatives becomes increasingly urgent. If the aviation
industry aspires to keep up with the way policy, technology, and consumer
patterns are trending, it is imperative to advance the transition toward green
energy solutions including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Because the
aviation industry’s role in transportation is so prevalent, transportation
industries and businesses alike are looking to aviation’s leadership in
advancing green technology. State and federal governments have outlined
ambitious timelines to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and with the recent
increase in government funding initiatives, we think it is possible for the
aviation industry to keep pace.
 Proposal Outline

In the following proposal, we outline a three-pronged

approach including short and long term goals to propel
the commercial aviation industry into leading
technological and ecological advancements (figure 1).
By 2030, the commercial aviation industry should (1)
implement a carbon offset program and (2) update its
infrastructure to withstand future weather patterns, as
influenced by climate change predictions. By 2050, the
commercial aviation industry should (3) fully transition to
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in accordance with the
nation’s net-zero economy goal.
 NON-TECHNICAL
SOLUTION SUMMARY

To start our search, we wanted to do a lot more research into green

initiatives in both the looming effects of climate change, new and
developing policies and sustainable trending for incoming generations. In
the past couple of decades, we have seen the automotive industry make
the transition to more sustainable vehicles. More electric and hybrid
vehicles are being offered than ever before, driven by sustainability trends
and an increase in gas prices. Knowing that this change is currently being
implemented in the auto industry makes us think that the aviation industry
will soon follow. The airline industry is big business, and with big business
comes big responsibility. Faced with an uncontrollable pandemic and an
impending climate crisis, a once unshakeable industry needs a change that
will foster stability for the long haul—a change that would be sustainable
and give rise to new, environmentally-conscious ways of doing business.
Below is some evidence contributing to the argument of shifting the
aviation industry onto a greener path.
The argument for transfering to sustainable aviation fuel:

Crude Oil

The aviation industry and crude oil have had a long-standing relationship. However,
the aviation industry’s dependence on crude oil has become turbulent for both the
aviation industry and the environment in recent years. The Aviation industry has
relied heavily on oil due to its affordability, consistent production, and global
standardized use. Oil is extracted using drilling and pumping methods from fossil
fuels1, often using water as an essential tool to assist in withdrawal. This product is
then sent to refineries, where more specialized products such as gasoline and jet
fuel are produced. However, the COVID-19 pandemic showed us how quickly the
demand for oil can drop, affecting nearly all major modes of transportation. As
nations issued travel advisory warnings and ordered stay-at-home isolation, (see
Figure 2- prices significantly dropping in the year 2020) the demand for travel
decreased and therefore caused disruption in the demand for oil. Reduced demand
for commercial air travel, therefore, decreased the need for jet fuel, which therefore
impacted revenue and grounded flights. When the demand began to increase again,
the already weakened supply chain for oil production could not keep up and
demanded more expenses be paid towards jet fuel. Despite the highs and lows of
this relationship, the aviation industry in the United States continues to be
dependent on jet fuel derived from crude oil.

.
 .
This relationship between the commercial aviation industry and crude oil is
complex. On the one hand, the abundance and relative cheapness of crude oil
once allowed it to grow and expand6. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the
vulnerability of the aviation industry to disruptions to the oil market. This, along
with the abundance of negative impacts oil has on the environment, highlights
the need for the aviation industry to find more sustainable and resilient sources
of energy that cannot be so fragile to global events and unprecedented
disruptions. Reliance on crude has hazardous effects on human health, water,
land, and the overall existing environment

Independence from crude oil has the potential to free the aviation industry from
both financial and ethical burdens. In breaking the dependency on oil, the
industry can avoid the negative consequences that come with being reliant on a
single resource and corresponding supply chain. Similar industries, such as the
automotive industry, have already begun making the transition towards more
sustainable alternatives and will only keep doing so. This shift towards
sustainability is not only environmentally responsible but furthermore provides
the industry with an opportunity for a more stable and reliable source of fuel.
The use of alternative fuels, such as biofuels, electric, and hydrogen-powered
solutions has already demonstrated optimistic results in reducing greenhouse
gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.

The argument for transfering to sustainable aviation fuel:

Sustainable Aviation Fuel

A new, promising alternative for jet fuel in the aviation industry is sustainable
aviation fuel, or SAF9 .This describes a category of fuel options- all derived from
non-fossil sources. SAF reduces large amounts of CO2 emission levels across its
life cycle- opposite of what often is seen across life-cycle emissions in traditional jet
fuel. SAF reduces greenhouse gas emissions, improves air quality and will reduce
dependence on fossil fuel resources. SAF is also known as a “drop-in” jet fuel,
allowing for seamless integration into existing aircraft technology- making it easier
for the aviation industry to adopt it as part of their green initiatives9. SAF, like other
fuel alternatives, has the potential to be less expensive than traditional jet fuel and
to provide cost stability for airlines, improving the bottom line. Additionally, by
investing in SAF, airlines can demonstrate their commitment to reducing their
environmental impact, which can help improve their public image and reputation.
Finally, Governments around the world are implementing regulations to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector, and SAF can help airlines
comply with these regulations.
The argument for transfering to sustainable aviation fuel:

Policy Initiatives

As business trends and public policy movement often operate in tandem, it would
be remiss to discuss the future of aviation without also discussing the landmark
legislation passed in the 117th Congress, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA).
The IRA is a landmark piece of legislation that encompasses the largest ever federal
investment in reducing the impacts of climate change, estimated at $369 billion in
Energy Security and Climate Change programs over the next ten years10. Of this
investment, $297 million have been allocated toward advancing sustainable aviation
fuels (SAF) and low-emissions aviation technologies to reduce the United States'
carbon footprint. Transportation remains to be one of the top contributors to
pollution in the United States, but the grants that the IRA provides give the aviation
industry the opportunity to become one of the leaders and best in advancing the
transition to green energy.

The Global Sustainability Study of 2021 conducted by Simon-

Kucher & Partners surveyed over 10,000 consumers in 17
countries, which revealed that consumers are overwhelmingly
shifting their purchasing behaviors to more sustainable products
and purchases over the last 5 years. Overall, 85% of survey
respondents suggested making at least modest changes in their
purchasing habits toward more environmentally friendly options
and younger generations are increasingly more likely to make
these adjustments. 50 percent of consumers link sustainability
. as a top five value driver, indicating companies shifting toward
sustainability are more likely to retain and attract consumers.
The argument for transfering to sustainable aviation fuel:

Corporate Social Responsibility

Companies around the world are becoming increasingly alert to the climate
emergency. They face calls from a growing range of stakeholders to take
responsibility for the impact of their activities. Most large companies now have
public climate strategies and targets, many of which include pledges that, on the
face of it, appear to significantly reduce, or even eliminate, their contributions to
global warming (Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor 2022, n.d.).

Purchasing power is important. And with the consumer becoming increasingly more
aware of the dangers of climate change, they’re looking for initiatives and
companies doing their part to sustain a better environment for us all. When
consumers are presented with options, they’re more likely to go with companies that
are contributing to the greater good.

Some companies have committed to reduce business travel emissions, while others
have partnered with established nonprofit organizations to form coalitions. With the
increase in focus on developing sustainable business practices, customers and
corporations alike are paying attention and aligning their wallets with companies that
align with their values.

Why is it imperative for companies to show they care?

77% percent of consumers are motivated to purchase from companies committed
to making the world a better place, while 73% of investors state that efforts to
improve the environment and society contribute to their investment decisions.
41% of millennial investors put a significant amount of effort into understanding a
company’s CSR practices, compared to just 27% of Gen X and 16% of baby
boomers.
25% of consumers and 22% of investors cite a “zero tolerance” policy toward
companies that embrace questionable practices on the ethical front.
A majority of American consumers (55%) believe it’s important for companies to
take a stand on key social, environmental, and political issues
.
The argument for implementing carbon offsetting programs
Carbon Offsetting

Carbon offsetting is a strategy many airlines in the industry are supporting

that works to mitigate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by
their aircraft. Some carbon offsetting programs are voluntary, allowing
travelers to calculate the emissions that will be generated by their flight and
opt to offset them by purchasing carbon credits. These credits can be used to
support various initiatives and environmentally friendly projects, like providing
resources to underdeveloped countries or planting trees, that serve to
improve communities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to the
International Air Transport Association, only 1% of travelers currently offset
their flights12, however, a survey conducted by McKinsey & Company in 2019
showed that many respondents were willing to pay more for carbon-neutral
airline tickets, with people aged 18-34 willing to contribute the most13.
Twenty-four percent of survey respondents indicated that they would pay
$5.00-19.99 more in offsetting fees, and twenty-six percent indicated they
would pay $20.00-49.99. A few airlines, like Air France, have increased their
ticket prices for domestic flights to accommodate the cost of using more SAF.
While Air France implemented these mandatory fees in response to
government mandates14, other airlines could consider taking a more
definitive stance on their commitment to ensuring a more sustainable future
by choosing to include offsetting fees in the price of their tickets - a change
many consumers have reported they would support.

.
The argument for implementing updated infrastructure
Infrastructure

The transition to sustainable fuels is a critical step toward mitigating future

carbon emissions and addressing the impacts of climate change. However, it
is important to acknowledge that many communities are already experiencing
the devastating effects of a changing climate. In addition to reducing future
emissions through the use of SAFs, it is crucial to implement remediation
measures to alleviate the current and ongoing impacts of climate change. The
weather already accounts for a rather large proportion of airplane delays
(figure 3) and this number will continue to grow. One such change is the
improvement of infrastructure in states and countries that are high-risk areas
for hazardous weather events brought on by climate change such as sea level
rise and temperature increase.

.
 According to data from NASA (figure 4), the sea level has risen nearly 4
inches since 1993, a number that is projected to reach another 10-12 inches
in the next 30 year15. Five examples of states in the U.S. that will be most
affected by sea level rise are Florida, Louisiana, Washington, California, and
New York. The rise in water will cause flooding and increased storm surge in
these areas. Airports can protect their infrastructure and other assets by
implementing measures such as raising runways, improving drainage
systems, and constructing protective barriers. Initial Investment in these
changes should prove profitable over the long term compared to costs brought
on by extensive damage from flooding.

The temperature has also risen significantly in the last century16. The
roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit increase in global average surface temperature
. that has occurred since the late 19th century might seem negligible, but it
means a significant increase in accumulated heat. Heat can cause the air to
become less dense and reduce the available lift for the aircraft during takeoff.
Overall, this results in longer takeoff rolls, lower climb rates, and increased
fuel consumption. In areas that will experience increased temperatures,
airlines should consider extending runways to meet the new regulations that
increased temperatures will require.
 TECHNICAL EXPOSITION

Weather and Delay

Originally, we thought we would yield more information from the delay and
weather data. After coding to merge the large weather data sets in R (see
next section), we found that the instances of severe weather types have
stayed consistent over the past few years. The lack of statistical
significance here is most likely due to lack of data. We would need to look
into more data from farther back to truly see if these instances are
increasing, especially in specific areas with high airline traffic (but alas, we
ran out of time). Regardless of the information, we were not discouraged
from seeking to answer our question of how airlines should prepare for
more major climate change related events, which include but are not
limited to, weather.

Crude Oil Prices

When looking at oil prices we found a positive correlation in oil prices over
the past year. This trend may have been even more prominent if not for
Covid-19 drastically decreasing demand for the product. As a finite
resource, we can expect that the price of oil will continue to increase in the
future as the population continues to expand. Preparing to switch over to
more carbon neutral fuel sources will prepare aviation companies to
transfer away from fossil fuels and focus on alternatives.

Environmental Challenges

Sea level rise was illustrated on Tableau by using some NASA data. We
did not think we had to illustrate weather temperature data as this is a
well-known fact in many audiences across the globe.
Further Detail

Figure 2. Crude Oil Price Trends per Year

This graph was created with data from the Crude_Oil_Price_2016_2021.csv

dataset with intent to explore how crude oil prices have changed over time.
Missing values in the dataset were replaced with -1. The dataset was
uploaded into Tableau for visualization. Measures ‘Date’ and ‘Adj Close’ were
used for the columns and rows, respectively. ‘Date’ was adjusted to display
individual days, and ‘Adj Close’ was filtered to exclude ‘-1’ values. The first
and last days displayed in the dataset were annotated on the chart to
showcase the difference over time to the viewer.

Figure 3. Proportion of Airline Delays Related to Weather from 2016 - 2021

This graph was created with the intent of exploring what proportion of
previous airline delays could be attributed to weather. In Excel, using the
Flight_Delay_2016_2021.csv dataset, we converted the values in the
‘arr_delay’, ‘carrier_delay’, ‘weather_delay’, ‘nas_delay’, ‘security_delay’,
and ‘late_aircraft_delay’ columns to hours instead of minutes; this was
done with a =(cell)/60 calculation. That data was then uploaded into
Tableau, where we aggregated the total number of hours delayed per year.
We then referenced an embedded excel spreadsheet on bts.gov18 that
relayed ‘Weather’s Share of Delay as Percent of Total Delay-Minutes, by
Year’. We used those percentage values to calculate the total number of
hours delayed due to weather per year. A new excel sheet was created
containing ‘years’, ‘total hours delayed’, ‘total hours delayed due to
weather’, and ‘percent weather related delays’. We uploaded the new
spreadsheet into Tableau and created a dual axis bar graph with ‘total
hours delayed’ and ‘total hours delayed due to weather’ to showcase the
proportions. ‘Percent weather related delays’ was informationally displayed
as a text label for the ‘total hours delayed due to weather’ graph.
 Coding

R code used to merge the 6 weather datasets:

#Load Package-------

library(tidyverse)
library(here)
library(skimr)
library(janitor)

#Load in Data & rename----

weather16<-X6_1_WeatherEvents_2016
weather17<-X6_2_WeatherEvents_2017
remove(X6_1_WeatherEvents_2016)
remove(X6_2_WeatherEvents_2017)
weather18<-X6_3_WeatherEvents_2018
remove(X6_3_WeatherEvents_2018)
weather19<-X6_4_WeatherEvents_2019
remove(X6_4_WeatherEvents_2019)
weather20<-X6_5_WeatherEvents_2020
remove(X6_5_WeatherEvents_2020)
weather21<-X6_6_WeatherEvents_2021
remove(X6_6_WeatherEvents_2021)

glimpse(weather16)
glimpse(weather17)

#Merge Datasets------

weather<-rbind(weather16,weather17)
weathertotal<-rbind(weather,weather18,weather19,weather20,weather21)

#Write CSV----
write_csv(weathertotal,"weathertotal.csv")
 Sources Cited

1. https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/petroleum
2. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-
crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php
3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100615/will-oil-prices-go-
2017.asp
4. https://www.businessairportinternational.com/features/how-has-covid-19-
impacted-the-future-of-fuel.html
5. https://www.climateworks.org/blog/less-is-more-reducing-demand-for-
unnecessary-business-flights-curb-aviation-emissions/
6. https://www.flyingmag.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-aviation-fuel-
prices/
7. http://oilcare.org.uk/what-we-do/impacts-of-
oil/#:~:text=Environmental%20impact%20of%20oil&text=Oil%20pollution%20
can%20have%20a,prevents%20photosynthesis%20in%20plants
8. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/sustainable-aviation-fuels/
9. https://airport-world.com/game-changer/
10. https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/inflation_reduction_act_on
e_page_summary.pdf
11. https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/corporate-social-responsibility-statistics
12. https://www.businesstraveller.com/features/the-offset-debate/
13. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-
insights/how-airlines-can-chart-a-path-to-zero-carbon-flying
14. https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2023/01/16/air-france-
increases-ticket-prices-to-pay-for-sustainable-aviation-fuel/
15. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-
report.html#step1
16. .https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-
change-global-
temperature#:~:text=Earth's%20temperature%20has%20risen%20by,0.18%C
2%B0%20C)%20per%20decade.
17. https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and-airports/understanding-reporting-
causes-flight-delays-and-cancellations
18. https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and-airports/understanding-reporting-
causes-flight-delays-and-cancellations