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Thi Truong BDS 2008.ENG
Thi Truong BDS 2008.ENG
Vietnam closes 2007 on a high; the economy is booming, FDI is at record highs, WTO
entry has meant many more companies are entering and will enter Vietnam, and people’s
wealth and spending power is increasing. The property market for residential is hot and
capital values are rising. State Owned Companies are privatizing and demanding quality
office space adding further pressure to the market; the office, hotel, retail, industrial and
serviced apartment sectors need more quality supply urgently as demand is ever
increasing. It’s a fantastic time to invest in the real estate sector with 2008 expected to see
continued growth. CB Richard Ellis is now putting forth their market predictions for 2008.
- The never-ending lines trying to buy apartments in projects like Vista, Sky Garden ,
Hoang Anh Gia Lai and others in Ho Chi Minh City mid-last year. This chaos
demonstrated the strong demand in the condominium market which continues to
support growing prices.
It also listed cases in which the Government has the responsibility for land
clearance before land is handed over to investors in order to hasten the investing
process.
- The drafting of legislature allowing for overseas Vietnamese and foreigners living
and working in Vietnam to purchase property freehold (for owner occupation only)
in the same manner as local Vietnamese. Thereby relaxing and simplifying a
process that currently exists in a modified form.
Historically we know that in such circumstances people diversify risks, shifting capital out of
developed markets which face slumps and into new and developing markets preferably
those with strong economic growth and stable political landscapes, and less dependent on
the US economy. With its unmet property demands in all sectors and appreciation of
capital values, Vietnam continues to offer investors growth opportunities not available in
other markets.
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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Demand is great but buyers are becoming more discriminating in what is being offered.
The queues to purchase seen in 2007 for such developments as Capitaland’s Vista, Keppel
and Tien Phuoc’s Estelle, Hoang Anh Gia Lai’s developments (several), and Phu My Hung’s
developments show that well priced, quality developments are and will remain the top
sellers. What may change is the property market in Hanoi, which up to now has not seen
such strong reactions to the residential markets. Hanoi is currently under rated but the
city’s potential is growing with projects such as Golden Westlake, Hanoi Indochina Plaza,
Keangnam, and Hanoi Landmark on the horizon. Office and retail space continues to
remain limited throughout the country causing pricing to increase and companies to
consider alternative solutions; decentralization into outer CBD areas and retailer’s to
secure space earlier or securing space en masse. Residential leasing has seen limited
serviced apartment stock introduced in 2007 with nothing new in HCMC for 2008 leaving
a shortage for those seeking apartments which has helped to drive the Buy-to-Let market
(individual investors who purchase units with the express purpose of leasing them back to
expats). In Hanoi, two more anticipated Serviced Apartments are scheduled to open in
2008. The hotel resort market suffers with lack of supply growth in the larger cities, as
developers turn their attentions to resort locations such as Danang / China Beach, Phu
Quoc, and up and comers Long Hai, Ha Long Bay, and Hue. Lastly, the least talked about
industrial property market, the workhorse of property which accounts for nearly 60% of
FDI! This market will see continued growth as more and more investors, particularly from
the US seek to enter Vietnam to take advantage of its young, skilled population and
favorable government policies. With gaps in infrastructure, both the central government
and provincial governments are seeking to overcome these challenges in 2008.
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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The retail market in Vietnam is fast becoming one of the most attractive markets to foreign
investors with its young population and growing disposable income. Famous retail groups
like Central from Thailand, Carrefour from France, Takashimiya from Japan, and Wal-
Mart from the US have been reviewing the market while Lotte from Korea and Parkson
from Malaysia are taking action now with multiple developments throughout Vietnam,
Hanoi, HCM City and even Hai Phong. As such, pressure on retail locations is causing
rental prices to increase. CB Richard Ellis fearlessly forecasts average rental rates in 2008
for purpose built retail on the ground floors reaching US$ 200 / sqm. / month. In 2008,
Ho Chi Minh City has only one new development in District 1 opening, Saigon Happiness
(due to be re-branded), with all retail outlets opening in outer districts, Tan Binh, District
11, and Saigon Paragon in District 7. Hanoi also finds the market short in supply and
high in demand. There are currently no shopping malls in Hanoi; the largest shopping
centre has 130,000sqm for retail, seeing rental as high as US$ 120 / sqm. / month,
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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achievable as of the end of 2007. CB Richard Ellis expects even higher rental in prime
locations in the CBD in 2008. In 2009, following the agreement with the WTO, retailers
will be entitled to 100% foreign ownership which will cause even greater pressure on a
market that suffers from lack of space.
With the growth of the economy, more expatriates enter Vietnam to live which has resulted
in high occupancy rates of serviced apartments. Hanoi has two internationally branded
buildings bringing quality and name to the market. Ascott and Frasers, both have
buildings opening in 2008 and will bring a total of 463 apartments to the market at US$
30 - 45 / sqm. With no new stock slated to open in Ho Chi Minh City, prices at
established branded units will rise to US$ 40 – 45 / sqm. with premiums for smaller sized
units as these are most desirable. Unable to meet this supply, the residential for sale
market enters providing units under Buy-to-Let where individual investors purchase units
with the intent to lease to expatriates. It is this section of the market that is supplying
housing to incoming expats but also helping to fuel sales of residential units. With capital
values increasing, and rental rates remaining high, this is becoming a popular method of
holding wealth. CB Richard Ellis fearlessly forecasts Hanoi as an under developed market
with excellent potential.
Some very long awaited projects are scheduled to be handed over to owners this year
namely Saigon Pearl. With strong demand for units, driven by fear and greed, many
people are eager to purchase and with prices rising buyers are constantly on the look out
for quality, well priced developments. This means more than the best prices, it means
people are looking at the developer, the history, the development and its layout and
services. Several international developers have chosen to enter the market by planning
townships rather than just a single building providing additional security in quality and
layout. Any way you look at it the residential market in Vietnam offers excellent
opportunities for savvy investors, from Hanoi to Hai Phong to Danang, Nha Trang, and Ho
Chi Minh City. As the government continues to review and amend its policies with Decrees
84 and 153, more developers and investors will be attracted to this market.
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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Hotel and resort markets are also attracting big international Hotel groups both as
Investors and Developers. Since last year, there have been five 5-star hotel projects in the
My Dinh area of Hanoi that have foreign investors. Ho Chi Minh City with 11 five star
hotels supplying approximately 3,611 rooms is leading the country’s top-tier hotel sector
together with numerous upgrading and new developments underway and on planned, yet
none are coming on-line in 2008. Some prominent new five-star hotels that will be open
from 2009 comprise of the Intercontinental in Asiana Plaza, Times Square and Saigon
Happiness Square (of the second phase). We estimate that Vietnam’s largest city will
require approximately 10,000 hotel rooms over the next 4 years across all grades.
At the same time, a series of hotel and resort projects are being developed in Da Nang
and Nha Trang by international groups. In Da Nang, according to our research, there
are twenty resort, hotel, golf course, and premier villa projects, which are primarily driven
by foreign investors.
It is clear that the “Hidden Charm“ of Vietnam has been revealed to the international hotel
operators. They are looking at various strategies to enter the market, buying and re-
branding, developing, and partnering with locals to develop. Guoman, Hilton, Omni,
Sheraton, InterContinental, Sofitel and Novotel in Dalat and Novotel in Phan Thiet all
changed hands. Movenpick took over the Omni in HCMC and Guoman in Hanoi and
Parkroyal took over the Novotel in Saigon, we see the rebranding of existing hotels. With
its urban centers booming and fresh resort locations, Vietnam is an attractive market for
the vacation and second home market as its coastal locations namely Nha Trang, Cam
Ranh, China Beach, Lang Co, Con Dao and Phu Quoc Islands have the potential to join
the infamous world’s paradises of Southeast Asian, Bali and Phuket.
Overall, 2007 and 2008 has seen the start of many important projects throughout the
country. In 2–3 years, when these projects are completed and put into use, major market
changes will occur.
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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Despite increases in foreign investment, local investors are not intimidated or deterred and
are pushing ahead full throttle with their development plans. Some famous local names
like FPT, Viglacera, Lilama, Hapro, and Bitexco have recently set up companies to focus on
investing and developing real estate breaking from the past, where companies held real
estate often conflicting with traditional business operations, and spinning off new ventures
in line with international business styles. These developers already have ownership of land
in good locations and the reputation, experience in the market (not always property
experience), relationship networks, and expertise in Vietnamese working style and
expenditure culture. CB Richard Ellis has developed successful partnerships with such
groups and is implementing many new projects such as Vincom City Towers, Viglacera
Tower, CEO Tower, Kinh Do Tower, Viet Tower, and Opera Business Centre. As this style
of business becomes more mainstream, we expect to see the strong growth of local
investors and the birth of new developers allowing for future partnerships which will further
uplift and strengthen the property market in Vietnam.
Challenges as such apply across the board for all participants in the property market,
foreign or local, to varying degrees. It is very important for the Government to have
comprehensive, transparent policies and plans for dealing with such obstacles which will
help all investors to develop the property market leading to beneficial growth in other
areas. For example, HCMC’s peoples committee has recently published the list of 20
“golden sites” in the city center and brought this land to public tender. Implementing
policies that bring opportunities equally for all foreign and local investors have a positive
effect on the state of the market.
CB Richard Ellis Vietnam’s activities in 2007 and plan for the future.
Our revenue for 2007 doubled from that of 2006. Further raising the bar, our goal for
2008 is to reach 2.2 times 2007 revenue. Paralleled with revenue growth is the
development of staff and expansion of activities in Hanoi and HCM city. CB Richard Ellis
has increased over 50% in size with staff reaching upwards of 170 and with plans to
expand beyond 200 by Q3 2008 to support all activities. We are also in the process of
officially expanding into other markets, moving from simple project offices into full fledged
licensed locations in such locations as Hai Phong, Da Nang, Nha Trang and Can Tho.
Not satisfied to just expand in scale, we are also developing new business lines which will
be introduced throughout the year. The first ‘launch’ of such will take place in February as
we officially introduce our brokerage line offering the sales of homes on the secondary
market allowing owners to sell their homes through an international broker, CB Richard
Ellis and our professional standards and services.
As we grow, we help Vietnam grow and are proud to be named one of the top 40 Best
Performing Foreign Invested companies in Vietnam by Saigon Times. CB Richard Ellis is
confident about Vietnam’s growth and our ability to grow with the market providing new
services for buyers, sellers, and investors and expanded service areas into Danang, Hai
Phong, Nha Trang so as to ensure our position as the leading Property Services Provider in
the Vietnam, and the world.
END
CB Richard Ellis Press Release
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