E.1.1 E.1.1.1 E.1.1.2 E.1.1.3 E.1.1.4 E.1.1.5 E.1.1.6 E.2.1 E.2.1.1 E.2.1.2 E.2.1.3 E.2.1.4 E.2.1.5 E.2.1.6 E.3.1 E.4.1 E.4.2 E.4.3 E.5.1 E.5.2

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E.1.1 Business Expectations Survey - National
E.1.1.1 Business Expectations Survey - North Central
E.1.1.2 Business Expectations Survey - North East
E.1.1.3 Business Expectations Survey - North West
E.1.1.4 Business Expectations Survey - South East
E.1.1.5 Business Expectations Survey – South South
E.1.1.6 Business Expectations Survey – South West
E.2.1 Consumer Expectations Survey - National
E.2.1.1 Consumer Expectations Survey - North Central
E.2.1.2 Consumer Expectations Survey - North East
E.2.1.3 Consumer Expectations Survey - North West
E.2.1.4 Consumer Expectations Survey – South East
E.2.1.5 Consumer Expectations Survey – South South
E.2.1.6 Consumer Expectations Survey – South West
E.3.1 Inflation Attitudes Survey
E.4.1 Credit Conditions Survey: Secured Lending
E.4.2 Credit Conditions Survey: Unsecured Lending
E.4.3 Credit Conditions Survey: Corporate Lending
E.5.1 Purchasing Managers' Index - Manufacturing
E.5.2 Purchasing Managers' Index - Non Manufacturing

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Table E.1.1: Business Expectations Survey - National
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1. Overall Business Outlook on the Macroeconomy
Confidence Index: All Sectors
Current Quarter 10.2 15.0 3.8 -1.2 -8.6 -6.4 -1.9 10.0 12.3 18.4 30.1 38.6 41.1 23.9 23.6 10.1 16.2 14.1 10.9 25.1 15.1 19.0 16.0
Next Quarter 63.7 58.8 39.7 45.5 46.2 48.2 46.6 45.0 55.1 52.1 54.4 59.8 59.5 55.5 53.8 52.2 56.1 50.1 52.0 58.0 44.9 54.6 53.5
2. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Current Quarter
Industrial Sector 21.7 14.9 -7.0 -11.9 -19.0 -13.1 -6.5 10.3 16.9 17.4 24.2 40.1 34.7 12.5 25.5 11.6 9.3 6.4 6.1 24.8 17.0 16.6 12.3
Construction Sector 5.2 43.8 12.9 5.3 -17.4 -16.7 6.7 17.1 7.8 11.9 11.3 40.0 28.8 25.7 4.2 21.4 20.8 14.9 4.5 26.4 18.5 21.7 21.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade -12.3 16.1 6.7 -1.6 -4.2 3.7 -8.6 1.7 8.5 12.6 31.9 27.7 37.2 18.2 17.8 2.5 16.6 16.7 14.7 26.4 11.4 18.6 11.6
Services Sector of which: 14.7 11.6 -4.9 3.4 0.0 -1.1 5.9 11.9 4.4 27.9 35.3 49.3 56.0 36.4 36.4 18.3 19.0 17.6 15.6 24.1 15.3 19.9 19.5
Financial Intermediation 44.4 36.4 -21.1 -15.8 -16.7 -30.8 -11.1 42.3 40.0 35.9 48.5 55.8 55.6 30.2 -2.3 -26.3 32.8 28.6 46.4 32.3 39.6 47.1 34.7
Hotels and Restaurants 8.5 16.3 12.3 0.0 -1.4 -6.3 17.0 11.4 10.9 13.0 30.1 25.6 27.2 23.8 28.1 5.1 6.9 9.9 30.1 18.7 2.1 13.6 11.2
Renting and Business Activities 34.0 -16.1 34.4 18.2 -25.0 -3.1 -4.5 8.0 25.0 32.0 28.6 18.2 30.6 41.7 5.6 -1.9 14.2 18.0 8.8 23.7 4.3 11.6 26.0
Community and Social Services 78.6 -24.1 25.4 11.1 4.2 -9.1 -12.9 4.3 17.4 12.0 25.0 15.8 12.5 3.8 -7.1 27.3 26.7 17.9 8.9 24.2 22.0 10.7 9.9
3. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by
Sector: Next Quarter
Industrial Sector 68.1 58.8 37.6 42.4 45.1 45.1 50.4 48.5 57.6 53.8 54.6 53.3 62.1 55.1 54.7 49.3 53.1 47.1 49.9 58.0 44.2 54.3 49.3
Construction Sector 63.6 79.5 65.6 65.8 56.5 31.3 53.3 39.0 45.1 73.1 41.5 67.7 69.7 62.9 46.5 56.1 58.9 44.7 47.0 59.9 44.9 50.4 58.0
Wholesale and Retail Trade 77.2 57.8 40.6 48.9 50.7 46.3 34.9 34.5 56.0 47.1 61.6 64.8 54.8 60.4 51.2 53.5 56.3 52.2 54.3 59.6 44.4 53.2 52.3
Services Sector of which: 54.7 50.0 31.7 33.9 37.2 55.6 39.9 35.8 47.1 44.9 44.4 58.4 51.7 44.4 54.8 52.4 57.2 53.0 57.6 56.4 45.6 57.5 55.5
Financial Intermediation 55.6 72.7 36.8 26.3 50.0 23.1 27.8 73.1 53.3 71.8 66.7 62.8 91.7 79.1 54.5 52.6 82.8 62.2 78.6 57.7 63.3 70.3 63.9
Hotels and Restaurants 72.0 62.6 47.4 58.3 57.5 63.5 68.2 59.5 61.8 57.0 66.2 69.0 69.6 59.0 62.8 56.2 48.7 47.3 63.7 48.7 38.9 54.0 58.3
Renting and Business Activities 88.7 51.6 59.4 39.4 25.0 50.0 50.0 56.0 57.1 61.2 53.6 60.6 72.2 77.8 61.1 41.5 49.6 55.1 48.6 61.1 34.8 55.5 61.5
Community and Social Services 93.3 55.2 29.3 51.4 37.5 45.5 58.1 56.5 60.9 52.0 68.8 52.6 81.3 57.7 28.6 50.0 55.7 50.6 59.5 58.2 50.3 51.8 40.8
4. Business Confidence Index on Own Operations by
Sector: Current Quarter
Industrial Sector 21.3 12.8 -2.7 4.1 1.5 -4.0 -10.2 4.2 7.0 11.8 14.4 24.5 22.1 -9.5 12.5 14.8 13.0 7.3 8.0 15.4 10.3 17.5 17.5
Construction Sector 66.2 20.8 -12.5 0.0 4.3 -2.1 -20.0 -2.4 0.0 7.5 9.4 24.6 15.2 14.3 9.9 23.5 15.7 10.3 8.3 21.9 14.6 22.8 14.6
Wholesale and Retail Trade 29.7 3.8 9.4 1.6 8.5 10.6 -2.7 -1.1 7.1 4.2 23.9 15.4 18.9 10.9 15.0 15.6 19.7 15.7 16.3 20.3 15.9 21.7 19.7
Services Sector -4.6 16.4 15.9 6.7 5.1 7.8 9.2 -12.7 -2.9 6.5 11.9 23.6 24.5 9.3 25.0 17.3 23.6 23.0 22.1 22.2 17.7 20.7 24.6
5. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Current Quarter
Volume of Business Activity Index 21.5 24.2 15.1 6.9 10.7 3.6 3.5 4.6 16.4 19.3 30.0 32.5 32.0 21.8 25.0 17.1 24.7 21.0 22.0 28.2 20.2 26.2 25.4
Volume of Total Order Book Index -2.3 22.7 12.3 9.5 6.3 2.2 2.7 1.2 11.8 14.0 24.8 25.5 22.8 11.1 17.6 14.5 26.1 20.9 20.7 24.9 17.8 26.7 24.4
Credit Access Index 3.0 -0.5 -6.9 -9.3 -6.8 -7.2 -18.0 -20.7 -8.8 -5.8 1.0 7.5 13.3 0.7 6.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 -3.4 5.2 0.1 5.7 5.2
Financial Condition Index 18.6 12.7 7.9 4.4 4.6 1.0 -2.1 -0.3 8.1 9.1 17.0 22.9 22.0 7.0 17.1 14.8 18.9 15.2 14.0 20.1 15.0 20.5 20.2
Average Capacity Utilization 77.4 21.3 19.4 11.7 15.2 10.4 7.8 13.0 17.5 22.5 33.0 35.2 33.0 16.6 24.4 19.7 24.3 19.2 21.0 24.4 20.5 24.2 24.0
6. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Next Quarter
Employment Outlook Index 70.6 44.6 39.6 31.2 39.9 36.5 32.0 31.3 40.1 45.7 51.4 52.3 50.5 48.7 46.9 46.6 43.5 39.8 42.0 41.5 35.2 43.7 40.3
7. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by
Sector: Next Quarter
Services Sector 52.6 45.3 73.1 41.3 43.0 46.9 35.5 33.6 44.1 56.5 64.4 64.5 58.1 55.1 56.9 50.1 9.8 41.1 44.9 44.2 35.8 45.4 40.3
8. Business with Expansion Plans (in per cent): Next Quarter
9. Business Constraints: Current Quarter
High Interest Rate 58.1 57.2 55.4 56.4 63.8 54.8 59.1 64.2 62.8 58.6 56.2 53.1 56.0 48.8 51.2 53.4 49.8 47.8 51.5 48.1 49.8 44.1 48.7
Unclear Economic Laws 36.1 35.2 35.4 35.2 41.7 34.9 37.1 45.6 45.8 42.5 37.0 33.7 35.9 32.5 34.0 38.6 35.0 39.6 41.5 34.3 39.6 36.5 36.0
Lack of Equipment 16.3 5.0 13.6 17.1 18.2 18.1 18.1 31.2 25.2 26.9 24.8 17.2 25.3 22.4 22.4 22.3 18.3 17.8 27.0 19.1 17.0 24.6 19.5
Insufficient Demand 9.9 2.6 13.9 19.8 22.6 19.0 23.0 23.3 30.4 30.1 26.0 18.2 23.6 22.8 24.4 30.6 24.6 22.6 28.5 19.7 24.0 27.0 23.3
Access to Credit 26.5 18.7 23.0 23.2 31.4 34.0 39.8 39.2 36.7 47.9 44.9 35.6 40.3 36.8 40.9 34.4 31.5 32.2 36.1 35.6 36.8 34.1 34.1
Financial Problems 42.1 41.6 41.2 45.4 48.8 46.7 51.1 60.0 51.9 49.4 49.7 46.9 47.9 48.2 46.0 48.4 46.4 49.9 53.0 49.0 50.1 49.2 46.7
Competition 34.2 32.7 38.1 34.4 39.8 31.1 32.3 29.1 41.9 34.9 31.2 28.2 35.8 38.3 37.9 39.5 37.8 39.3 37.7 37.4 36.6 41.5 38.3
Labor Problems -14.3 -16.6 -8.5 -8.1 0.8 -0.2 -1.3 5.8 6.2 6.8 2.7 4.8 6.8 10.6 6.2 8.5 0.9 4.4 8.5 4.5 0.2 10.4 9.9
Lack of Materials Input 5.4 -2.9 10.2 11.2 11.6 8.7 9.3 20.6 18.7 15.6 13.7 8.3 15.9 15.6 18.7 20.6 8.0 12.5 18.8 9.6 7.8 18.0 14.2
Unfavourable Political Climate 17.6 13.9 23.7 28.7 29.3 -11.3 32.0 36.6 33.2 36.6 30.3 21.9 27.1 30.9 27.5 35.1 27.6 39.8 38.6 29.4 34.7 34.9 34.4
Unfavourable Economic Climate 43.4 37.5 42.0 45.5 49.1 42.6 48.5 48.1 47.5 52.1 42.2 37.3 38.9 41.0 38.4 44.8 37.5 48.0 45.8 35.8 44.5 44.3 43.9
Insufficient Power Supply 68.5 68.5 60.8 58.0 71.0 66.2 70.5 77.2 72.7 75.7 72.8 63.6 74.1 72.8 66.2 64.6 74.3 71.6 68.5 69.3 70.7 65.3 65.5
10. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic
Indicators: Current Quarter
N/$ Exchange Rate 14.8 17.8 -5.4 -6.3 12.4 -6.2 -3.1 3.3 -2.4 8.5 5.1 19.6 13.7 12.4 8.9 2.1 -4.2 -2.1 -6.3 0.2 -2.3 5.0 1.8
Inflation Rate 24.7 22.2 23.0 18.0 24.8 25.1 16.2 8.7 8.5 8.9 1.0 2.1 9.2 17.9 16.0 33.5 26.3 14.3 30.1 30.7 25.3 25.9 18.9
Borrowing Rate -3.5 -2.9 12.0 -2.5 -3.5 4.3 -2.9 -14.0 3.1 -5.4 2.1 9.6 -2.1 11.7 21.3 19.6 23.3 15.6 20.9 19.3 10.9 15.3 12.4
11. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic
Indicators: Next Quarter
N/$ Exchange Rate 28.6 24.9 3.5 5.5 8.1 16.4 11.3 10.8 25.2 7.4 6.5 26.0 10.3 13.9 16.4 20.8 10.7 14.0 12.7 8.3 4.3 11.8 10.9
Inflation Rate -3.5 -2.9 12.0 6.6 -14.2 6.5 7.7 -11.0 3.9 9.2 -7.6 -12.0 15.6 9.9 10.1 15.2 13.7 10.5 18.2 17.7 21.4 14.6 10.7
Borrowing Rate -0.5 -1.4 -2.0 -3.3 -5.6 1.3 -7.5 -20.3 -2.6 -2.8 -4.4 -7.8 -1.3 1.4 7.8 4.5 12.7 6.5 8.5 11.5 7.6 6.7 9.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
12. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Current Quarter
Importer 3.9 14.9 7.7 11.1 -22.0 11.5 -2.8 6.5 11.5 20.5 36.6 45.1 51.6 28.8 34.6 4.5 20.7 19.6 13.6 34.5 24.0 30.3 23.6
Exporter 42.9 43.8 -14.3 10.3 25.0 -15.2 -4.0 20.6 12.1 37.8 61.4 48.7 41.7 77.6 23.1 29.6 28.1 -16.1 8.2 27.3 34.1 14.0 4.8
Both Importer and Exporter 6.8 16.1 15.1 4.5 -1.5 -22.3 -12.0 -3.9 -5.9 23.7 20.2 33.3 35.6 32.4 21.4 21.5 11.9 22.7 12.9 26.9 15.0 6.2 9.0
Neither Importer nor exporter 11.1 7.7 -2.3 -10.2 -8.6 -8.3 0.4 13.4 16.3 15.6 27.5 36.8 37.6 16.1 20.1 9.5 15.6 12.6 10.3 22.7 13.2 18.4 15.5
13. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Next Quarter
Importer 64.1 63.2 35.4 44.7 28.9 44.2 29.2 25.4 62.3 31.5 35.5 47.4 32.6 46.7 42.1 43.8 51.6 56.0 60.5 60.6 57.0 58.7 61.6
Exporter 85.2 61.3 35.0 57.1 78.3 51.1 72.0 47.1 60.6 37.8 47.7 61.5 52.8 13.2 57.7 42.6 46.9 48.4 59.2 60.6 64.3 32.6 45.2
Both Importer and Exporter 56.2 60.1 39.7 43.9 45.6 42.0 51.8 26.5 42.6 58.3 57.3 50.8 75.2 54.9 55.0 59.0 64.9 53.5 57.1 60.6 41.3 46.4 43.2
Neither Importer nor exporter 65.1 57.7 40.8 45.2 48.6 51.7 52.1 56.1 55.6 59.0 60.7 65.1 68.2 62.6 57.7 54.6 56.1 48.5 49.9 57.1 42.8 55.5 53.3
14. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Current Quarter
Small (<50) 5.4 13.6 6.7 1.7 -8.9 -4.9 63.6 13.8 13.2 17.4 30.7 37.7 42.2 20.6 20.3 8.9 15.2 12.9 8.7 23.7 12.0 18.2 13.7
Medium (50 and <200) 17.9 19.1 -9.6 -9.7 -11.6 -2.5 58.4 -7.1 10.2 25.6 35.9 46.2 38.2 28.3 28.8 12.3 18.6 17.8 13.6 29.3 27.6 17.4 22.7
Large (200 and Up) 23.5 19.2 6.8 -8.1 0.0 -26.0 55.8 20.0 10.8 11.5 15.7 32.1 35.8 37.7 39.7 15.9 22.7 21.4 34.5 34.7 30.3 32.0 27.7
15. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Next Quarter
Small (<50) 65.7 59.1 40.9 47.8 48.1 50.3 47.8 46.9 55.5 53.9 56.7 64.7 59.5 58.8 53.8 54.9 54.9 49.2 51.2 56.9 44.0 54.2 53.9
Medium (50 and <200) 64.6 59.1 40.0 42.4 40.8 46.3 50.4 38.8 53.9 50.0 59.2 41.6 63.7 53.0 56.7 51.6 58.7 48.8 53.0 62.7 49.6 56.9 48.9
Large (200 and Up) 52.4 60.3 29.3 36.1 45.8 36.5 34.7 45.6 54.1 42.5 30.7 51.8 51.9 39.0 49.6 29.8 65.5 63.2 62.2 62.9 46.2 53.9 58.1
16. Percentage Distribution of Respondent Firms by Type of Business
Importer 17.7 18.3 28.3 29.6 15.0 23.2 26.4 22.0 16.3 22.3 21.7 21.8 24.8 22.2 23.2 21.7 14.6 15.5 12.9 17.0 12.6 16.1 14.2
Exporter 3.2 3.5 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.7 3.1 4.4 4.4 3.0 3.6 2.9 2.6 5.9 2.0 3.1 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2
17. Percentage Distribution of Respondent Firms by Employment Size
Small (<50) 69.1 71.9 73.3 71.5 70.3 73.5 71.3 66.1 72.8 71.6 72.7 75.2 76.4 70.6 73.8 76.9 79.1 80.8 81.0 80.1 80.8 79.0 78.8
Medium (50 and <200) 18.7 19.3 18.1 19.9 20.0 16.6 16.5 22.2 17.1 19.1 16.9 16.5 15.6 18.0 15.6 14.4 14.1 12.9 12.5 13.5 13.0 14.3 13.6
Large (200 and Up) 11.9 8.7 8.6 8.5 9.7 9.8 12.2 11.7 9.9 9.2 10.4 8.4 8.0 11.4 10.6 8.6 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.6 7.6
No Response 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18. Distribution of Respondent Firms by Sector

Sample Size (N) 1075 1075 1050 1024 850 1100 1100 1100 1100 1350 1350 1400 1400 1400 1400 1850 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950
Response Rate(%) 80.6 83.3 81.5 71.2 71.3 89.1 73.1 69.7 67.9 90.7 90.5 94.8 92.6 91.5 95.1 94.4 96.4 96.5 96.5 99.6 98.6 99.0 99.5
All Sectors 866 896 856 729 606 980 804 767 747 1224 1222 1327 1297 1281 1331 1746 1880 1882 1881 1943 1922 1930 1941
Industrial Sector 240 338 187 194 205 350 276 262 243 340 326 365 349 305 329 379 462 482 477 467 477 475 473
Construction Sector 77 73 32 38 23 48 30 41 51 67 53 65 66 70 71 98 249 262 266 269 254 276 281
Wholesale and Retail Trade 180 186 180 182 143 217 186 177 141 310 276 267 312 303 326 475 488 502 484 492 492 485 493
Services Sector of which: 369 299 290 119 235 365 312 287 312 505 567 578 633 603 605 794 681 636 654 715 699 694 694
Financial Intermediation 18 11 19 19 12 13 18 26 15 52 47 43 36 43 32 38 129 119 113 130 139 155 147

Hotels and Restaurants 82 99 57 72 74 96 88 79 110 87 122 129 125 122 133 178 206 182 181 193 193 198 187
Renting and Business Activities 53 31 32 33 4 32 22 25 28 49 28 33 36 36 36 53 156 167 190 198 184 173 169
Community and Social Services 15 29 59 72 24 44 31 23 23 25 16 19 16 26 28 44 190 168 170 194 183 168 191
19. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector Contribution: Current Quarter
Industrial Sector 6.0 5.6 -1.5 -3.2 -6.4 -4.7 -2.2 3.5 5.5 4.8 6.5 11.0 9.3 3.0 6.3 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.5 6.0 4.2 4.1 3.0
Construction Sector 0.5 3.6 0.5 0.3 -0.7 -0.8 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.1 0.6 3.7 2.4 3.1 3.1
Wholesale and Retail Trade -2.6 3.3 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.8 -2.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 7.2 5.6 8.9 4.3 4.4 0.7 4.3 4.5 3.8 6.7 2.9 4.7 2.9
Services Sector 6.3 3.9 -1.7 0.5 0.0 -0.4 2.3 4.5 1.8 11.5 16.4 21.5 27.3 17.2 16.6 8.3 6.9 6.0 5.4 8.9 5.6 7.2 7.0
10.2 16.4 -1.3 -2.7 -8.1 -5.1 -1.7 9.3 9.5 20.2 30.5 40.0 47.0 25.8 27.5 12.7 16.2 14.1 11.4 25.2 15.2 19.0 16.0
20. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector Contribution: Next Quarter
Services Sector 23.3 16.7 10.7 5.5 14.4 20.7 15.5 13.4 19.7 18.5 20.6 25.4 25.2 20.9 24.9 23.8 20.7 17.9 20.0 20.7 16.6 20.7 19.8
63.9 57.3 29.9 32.5 43.8 48.6 42.8 40.0 52.1 49.4 50.9 56.4 58.6 51.7 53.5 52.2 56.2 50.1 53.3 58.1 44.9 54.6 53.5
21. Business Confidence Index on Own Operations by Sector: Current Quarter
Industrial Sector 5.9 4.8 -0.6 1.1 0.5 -1.4 -3.5 1.4 2.3 3.3 3.8 6.7 5.9 -2.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 1.9 2.0 3.7 2.5 4.3 4.3
Construction Sector 5.9 1.7 -0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 3.0 1.9 3.3 2.1
Wholesale and Retail Trade 6.2 0.8 2.0 0.4 2.0 2.3 -0.6 -0.3 1.3 1.1 5.4 3.1 4.5 2.6 3.7 4.2 5.1 4.2 4.2 5.1 4.1 5.5 5.0
Services Sector -2.0 5.5 5.4 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.6 -4.7 -1.2 2.7 5.5 10.3 12.0 4.4 11.4 7.8 8.6 7.8 7.7 8.2 6.5 7.5 8.8
Financial Condition Index 16.0 12.8 6.3 2.6 4.6 3.7 -1.3 -3.7 2.4 7.4 15.2 21.3 23.2 5.5 18.7 16.6 18.9 15.2 15.1 20.1 15.0 20.5 20.2
22. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next Quarter

Services Sector 22.4 15.1 24.8 6.7 16.7 17.5 13.8 12.6 18.4 23.3 29.9 28.1 28.4 25.9 25.9 22.8 3.6 13.9 15.6 16.3 13.0 16.3 14.4
23. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Current Quarter
Importer 0.7 2.7 2.2 3.3 -3.3 2.7 -0.7 1.4 1.9 4.6 7.9 9.8 12.8 6.4 8.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.8 5.9 3.0 4.9 3.4
Exporter 1.4 1.5 -0.4 0.4 1.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.4 1.1 4.6 0.5 0.9 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Both Importer and Exporter 1.2 2.6 1.6 0.4 -0.2 -3.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.8 3.0 2.0 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.2 2.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.7
Neither Importer nor exporter 6.8 4.8 -1.3 -5.9 -6.0 -4.8 0.2 8.1 10.7 9.6 17.8 24.2 24.5 10.3 13.1 6.4 11.4 9.3 7.9 16.6 10.0 13.2 11.8
Macroeconomic Outlook Index 10.1 11.6 2.0 -1.8 -8.5 -6.0 -1.9 9.9 12.3 18.4 30.0 38.6 41.0 23.9 23.7 10.0 16.2 14.1 10.9 25.2 15.1 19.0 15.9
24. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Next Quarter
Importer 11.3 11.6 10.0 13.2 4.3 10.3 7.7 5.6 10.2 7.0 7.7 10.3 8.1 10.4 9.8 9.5 7.5 8.7 7.8 10.3 7.2 9.4 8.8
Exporter 2.8 2.1 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.7 1.0
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Next Quarter 64.0 59.2 39.0 45.4 46.5 48.6 46.6 44.9 55.1 52.1 54.3 59.7 59.5 55.5 53.8 52.2 56.1 50.1 52.0 58.1 44.8 54.6 53.5
25. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by Size of Business: Current Quarter

Small (<50) 4.0 6.2 3.2 0.8 -6.3 -3.0 -3.0 9.1 9.6 12.4 22.3 28.3 32.2 14.5 15.0 6.9 12.0 10.4 7.1 19.0 9.7 14.4 10.8
Medium (50 and <200) 3.3 3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -2.3 -0.4 1.5 -1.6 1.7 4.9 6.1 7.6 6.0 5.1 4.5 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 4.0 3.6 2.5 3.1
Large (200 and Up) 2.8 1.7 0.6 -0.7 0.0 -2.5 -0.4 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Current Quarter 10.1 11.6 2.0 -1.8 -8.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.9 12.4 18.4 30.0 38.7 41.0 23.9 23.7 10.0 16.2 14.0 10.9 25.2 15.2 19.0 16.0
2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
21.8 21.7 16.4 16.0 8.4 2.8 14.9 8.3 -10.3 -12.3 -24.1 -29.0 -27.7 -1.5 -2.6 17.7
52.7 55.3 53.6 55.7 46.4 55.5 54.6 52.8 49.7 44.4 35.1 32.2 28.2 47.5 37.2 61.7
20.0 16.9 12.7 22.9 7.5 0.4 11.8 9.0 -10.8 -15.7 -38.7 -32.4 -36.2 -4.4 -12.5 16.2
21.9 20.4 15.7 -2.1 -4.3 -8.0 5.6 -2.9 -10.6 -19.0 -25.0 -29.3 -26.3 -3.7 5.9 12.0
16.6 20.3 16.9 15.3 10.0 7.8 10.6 11.2 -12.0 -11.9 -26.0 -28.7 -24.7 -2.3 0.6 15.6
26.9 26.5 18.9 18.4 12.6 4.8 23.2 9.5 -8.6 -7.5 -11.8 -26.6 -24.8 2.1 -1.0 22.1
36.1 33.1 28.7 32.3 22.0 8.1 45.1 9.3 -17.2 -12.9 -5.3 -8.3 -20.9 20.9 8.5 49.6
26.7 5.2 5.9 0.6 -1.7 -2.1 8.5 7.8 -23.9 -18.2 -18.8 -29.7 -34.6 -13.5 2.9 23.9
20.9 31.4 20.1 25.9 7.3 -2.7 24.3 11.8 1.3 -5.0 -9.2 -33.6 -17.0 -2.9 -1.3 0.5
24.2 37.2 24.7 19.5 23.7 15.6 15.5 9.5 5.1 4.8 -11.6 -30.3 -24.8 6.5 -13.8 24.6
50.5 53.4 53.1 57.6 41.7 51.6 54.9 51.0 44.8 38.0 17.0 26.9 25.6 43.3 36.0 59.6
52.2 52.7 55.8 46.9 31.9 50.2 53.6 43.2 48.2 42.2 39.1 28.3 28.7 42.0 24.8 54.8
52.4 53.8 51.8 51.4 51.5 56.6 47.4 56.6 48.0 44.9 41.6 31.9 28.5 48.5 44.9 62.3
54.7 58.8 54.5 61.5 51.5 59.6 60.2 54.5 55.0 49.6 41.9 34.9 31.5 56.4 37.1 64.8
58.5 68.5 64.8 63.0 65.9 65.9 54.9 60.5 55.2 51.1 52.6 43.2 23.0 71.2 21.2 78.7
58.3 45.9 50.5 58.4 47.5 61.0 61.6 47.2 54.3 39.2 33.0 37.8 50.4 66.2 50.6 56.7
52.7 58.5 55.8 67.3 39.7 49.0 66.2 54.2 50.0 57.8 37.4 28.8 29.1 50.0 39.5 63.0
49.1 64.4 50.5 58.5 55.1 62.2 59.1 57.7 59.9 51.3 47.0 31.7 27.7 45.1 38.8 64.9
19.3 20.8 12.0 17.5 6.5 0.2 8.1 3.4 1.1 -7.0 -24.3 -20.8 -20.5 -7.4 -17.6 1.7
16.7 8.6 12.0 0.4 -5.9 2.3 0.4 -8.6 -8.0 -9.0 -13.3 -21.4 -21.5 2.4 -7.9 -10.1
23.3 20.1 19.0 17.0 15.2 9.2 11.9 6.6 0.0 -6.0 -15.6 -21.1 -14.8 1.2 -4.8 5.6
24.5 26.5 18.4 25.4 20.8 16.2 16.2 7.4 4.1 1.5 -3.1 -11.4 -13.6 3.1 -1.6 5.0
25.1 27.1 17.6 21.7 17.0 12.9 13.9 11.2 -0.2 -3.8 -16.8 -17.4 -17.6 -0.2 -6.2 9.5
26.8 25.6 19.3 20.6 17.2 12.6 14.4 11.0 2.1 -3.8 -15.2 -18.5 -18.4 -1.4 -5.6 8.5
7.2 7.6 3.1 6.1 1.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.9 -3.2 -8.6 -15.2 -21.6 -19.1 -9.9 -12.5 -29.2
21.8 21.0 16.2 18.0 12.1 8.4 11.0 4.1 0.5 -4.1 -13.0 -17.6 -16.6 -0.3 -7.3 2.6
27.6 28.7 20.4 21.7 15.0 15.2 18.1 10.5 7.4 2.4 -7.8 -8.9 -10.2 3.5 3.1 3.4
63.5 66.5 61.4 61.5 55.2 62.9 63.9 64.4 61.2 57.0 51.1 46.5 41.7 56.8 45.1 67.2
39.5 38.6 36.6 40.5 34.0 39.4 40.1 40.1 36.0 29.9 29.6 23.4 22.8 29.7 27.8 35.7
37.4 41.4 34.5 41.5 29.7 31.4 35.0 38.1 31.6 25.8 20.2 18.6 19.2 24.8 26.2 32.1
37.1 32.2 32.9 36.0 21.7 40.3 42.9 35.0 33.9 34.3 33.6 19.2 19.8 31.0 20.5 32.7
42.2 37.3 43.3 38.9 39.4 42.6 38.2 43.7 35.7 30.1 31.5 21.9 21.0 30.7 25.9 36.8
40.1 39.2 34.2 42.6 37.9 42.4 44.0 40.6 40.1 30.8 33.5 29.5 27.5 32.1 32.7 38.2
62.0 62.9 56.1 59.6 54.4 62.3 59.8 62.2 57.1 56.0 46.2 55.3 56.2 50.6 54.5 23.3
66.1 57.1 61.0 55.9 49.2 63.9 65.4 60.5 61.7 64.6 57.4 58.3 58.6 57.4 50.0 34.5
67.2 69.3 68.7 56.8 59.8 71.0 66.7 69.6 63.7 64.2 54.9 61.0 60.8 58.7 62.7 47.3
66.7 63.6 63.3 64.2 58.5 66.0 62.5 68.2 66.6 64.4 59.2 56.5 60.5 58.5 62.7 48.4
66.7 65.4 63.9 66.1 60.2 64.9 60.1 60.5 67.2 63.0 58.6 58.8 70.4 63.0 66.3 53.8
59.4 58.7 61.7 61.8 55.8 66.3 60.4 66.7 62.5 60.2 56.0 55.7 51.4 52.4 60.9 30.3
69.6 67.3 65.4 67.3 61.6 57.8 64.4 72.5 66.9 69.6 67.3 55.5 61.5 57.9 60.5 57.7
72.0 63.8 62.6 62.6 57.6 73.3 64.9 71.4 70.1 65.1 56.1 56.4 59.0 61.1 62.8 52.4
48.0 34.9 49.4 45.4 46.6 48.0 42.2 46.9 47.1 45.8 51.0 53.8 50.1 53.6 45.0 58.6
30.4 26.4 34.3 29.9 32.0 32.0 28.6 31.6 33.4 36.2 39.6 43.5 38.6 40.7 34.6 42.7
19.2 15.6 22.3 15.9 15.3 13.8 16.5 15.5 20.6 25.2 24.5 26.3 27.2 29.1 20.6 27.9
21.0 19.9 27.0 25.2 23.1 25.6 22.9 25.6 31.4 34.8 40.2 36.5 33.8 35.4 31.6 42.6
31.5 28.1 35.1 29.8 31.0 33.3 29.4 32.8 31.5 38.2 36.4 37.3 36.6 40.0 35.4 39.8
46.9 45.2 47.2 43.0 42.4 47.8 42.2 46.9 48.3 54.3 58.2 55.6 52.7 58.0 51.7 56.8
38.2 41.3 43.2 38.1 39.7 36.7 34.8 39.4 42.0 39.4 41.3 44.1 35.0 41.6 37.7 41.0
4.6 4.2 7.8 3.1 0.5 2.7 2.6 4.6 5.1 6.2 6.5 14.9 8.7 8.8 4.3 2.8
12.4 6.7 13.8 10.5 8.8 8.7 10.3 6.7 17.4 23.3 21.2 29.5 23.8 25.5 21.4 20.4
30.3 31.4 35.6 31.6 33.0 28.8 29.7 27.6 28.1 36.3 36.9 38.5 36.0 40.5 34.6 33.4
38.8 35.8 43.1 37.4 39.8 40.1 39.1 37.5 39.4 51.0 51.4 52.7 48.0 52.5 45.1 46.1
62.8 64.6 66.1 61.8 67.6 71.6 61.8 53.7 55.9 68.7 69.1 62.4 62.7 66.9 54.7 62.6
1.5 15.2 7.3 7.2 -14.7 -3.3 4.1 8.3 -19.2 -8.5 -26.1 -24.6 -21.1 3.4 -1.7 1.1
16.6 18.4 12.4 11.6 18.5 18.7 11.8 10.4 22.5 22.0 29.2 25.9 21.2 12.4 6.1 9.5
12.4 14.2 7.5 7.6 10.6 7.7 10.1 3.6 11.6 6.2 19.5 9.4 7.6 8.6 -2.1 6.3
7.7 21.9 16.5 10.6 -5.1 12.1 14.6 18.9 3.5 6.3 0.4 -0.9 -4.6 18.4 19.4 39.2
11.6 10.6 9.1 8.9 7.3 -2.0 -5.9 0.2 6.9 -0.9 2.5 2.0 6.4 -6.4 -15.2 -9.8
7.6 12.1 8.9 7.8 4.9 -0.8 -0.6 -5.3 8.2 -1.4 4.8 8.4 4.0 -0.7 0.6 -0.2
2014 2015 2016 2017
31.0 15.4 26.2 16.7 4.8 0.3 15.0 2.4 -13.1 -20.3 -40.7 -28.4 -29.7 -11.6 -7.2 19.4
8.2 28.3 15.8 42.3 12.2 19.6 4.7 21.8 -18.8 4.5 0.0 -12.8 -31.5 31.4 -3.0 41.2
27.4 4.9 12.5 3.3 -3.4 -14.3 7.4 7.2 -26.2 -20.4 -37.9 -35.8 -42.2 -1.2 11.8 26.0
19.6 24.8 14.2 16.8 10.3 4.6 16.1 9.1 -7.7 -10.1 -19.5 -28.8 -25.6 -0.2 -3.3 15.4
57.1 49.1 53.0 54.9 47.1 59.4 42.9 50.3 46.1 38.2 28.3 16.4 6.4 32.0 23.7 63.3
42.9 52.2 73.7 53.8 30.6 23.5 44.2 61.8 25.0 61.4 54.1 28.2 -5.6 34.3 15.2 55.9
44.6 45.4 48.3 51.6 29.5 50.0 49.7 57.2 38.4 42.2 29.3 39.7 9.7 48.8 48.9 64.1
53.3 57.9 53.8 56.4 48.6 56.5 58.3 52.4 52.3 45.6 36.9 33.1 36.4 50.9 40.3 61.0
22.0 23.5 16.0 16.0 8.1 3.3 15.6 8.2 -11.4 -12.7 -24.3 -29.1 -30.0 -4.0 -5.6 14.5
25.3 20.2 21.7 18.8 9.0 1.0 16.3 12.2 -6.8 -9.8 -18.5 -30.1 -12.6 9.7 11.1 27.0
11.3 5.7 10.7 11.1 10.3 -1.7 2.9 -0.9 -6.7 -13.3 -35.8 -23.0 -36.2 7.9 0.0 37.1
53.1 57.2 53.7 58.4 48.3 58.0 55.4 52.2 52.0 43.0 35.7 30.8 29.8 47.3 41.3 60.1
48.3 51.3 55.0 46.7 35.2 43.9 56.5 60.7 42.6 50.3 34.1 32.6 42.5 47.2 38.2 67.0
56.5 44.3 49.2 46.4 47.8 54.2 37.9 41.2 41.0 50.0 30.3 34.5 -16.8 50.5 1.1 70.5
14.6 15.0 19.4 14.1 16.5 16.7 17.5 15.8 15.1 17.0 15.4 13.8 16.3 15.7 20.8 19.2
2.7 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.9 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.8
10.2 8.9 9.4 8.2 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.8 8.8 7.6 9.0 7.8 7.9 8.7 9.6 10.1
72.5 73.6 69.1 76.3 73.0 72.5 72.2 72.5 74.4 73.2 73.7 76.4 73.0 73.7 67.8 68.9
79.0 77.7 80.6 78.1 78.6 77.9 81.6 79.6 76.4 80.6 79.5 81.3 76.3 80.7 75.9 79.5
14.2 14.6 12.9 13.7 14.2 15.7 12.8 14.4 17.9 14.7 14.8 14.2 16.0 14.0 14.9 15.0
6.8 7.7 6.5 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.5 6.1 5.6 4.6 5.6 4.5 7.7 5.2 9.1 5.5
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1850 1850 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950
99.0 98.7 98.3 97.9 98.9 99.4 97.8 98.8 98.5 99.5 99.1 99.5 99.5 98.8 98.9 97.6
1832 1826 1868 1861 1880 1889 1859 1878 1872 1941 1933 1940 1940 1927 1929 1903
481.0 461.0 458 458 465 465 457 465 446 484 489 472 469 517 489 470
251 245 249 239 254 263 233 243 274 268 256 276 247 245 254 217
464 474.0 515 502 508 512 489 519 499 519 503 508 515 485 483 518
636 646 646 662 653 649 680 651 653 670 685 684 709 680 703 698
147 127 122 127 123 135 173 129 134 139 133 132 187 139 189 127
180 172 188 178 181 187 165 180 184 181 191 185 185 185 174 180
148 159 154 162 151 147 148 153 157 161 163 146 135 140 152 200
161 188 182 195 198 180 194 189 178 189 198 221 202 216 188 191
5.2 4.3 3.1 5.6 1.9 0.1 2.9 2.2 -2.6 -3.9 -9.8 -7.9 -8.8 -1.2 -3.2 4.0
3.0 2.7 2.1 -0.3 -0.6 -1.1 0.7 -0.4 -1.5 -2.6 -3.3 -4.2 -3.4 -0.5 0.8 1.4
4.2 5.3 4.7 4.1 2.7 2.1 2.8 3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -6.8 -7.5 -6.5 -0.6 0.2 4.3
9.3 9.4 6.5 6.6 4.4 1.6 8.5 3.3 -3.0 -2.6 -4.2 -9.4 -9.1 0.7 -0.4 8.1
21.8 21.6 16.4 16.1 8.4 2.8 14.9 8.3 -10.3 -12.3 -24.1 -29.0 -27.7 -1.5 -2.6 17.7
13.3 13.5 13.0 14.2 10.3 12.7 13.5 12.6 10.7 9.5 4.3 6.5 6.2 11.6 9.1 14.7
7.2 7.1 7.4 6.0 4.3 7.0 6.7 5.6 7.1 5.8 5.2 4.0 3.7 5.3 3.3 6.3
13.3 14.0 14.3 13.9 13.9 15.4 12.5 15.7 12.8 12.0 10.8 8.4 7.6 12.2 11.2 17.0
19.0 20.8 18.8 21.9 17.9 20.5 22.0 18.9 19.2 17.1 14.8 12.3 11.5 19.9 13.5 23.8
52.7 55.3 53.6 55.9 46.4 55.5 54.7 52.8 49.7 44.4 35.1 31.2 28.9 49.1 37.2 61.7
5.1 5.3 2.9 4.3 1.6 0.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 -1.8 -6.2 -5.1 -4.9 -2.0 -4.5 0.4
2.3 1.2 1.6 0.1 -0.8 0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -3.0 -2.7 0.3 -1.0 -1.2
5.9 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.1 2.5 3.1 1.8 0.0 -1.6 -4.1 -5.5 -3.9 0.3 -1.2 1.5
8.5 9.4 6.4 9.0 7.2 5.6 5.9 2.6 1.4 0.5 -1.1 -4.0 -5.0 1.1 -0.6 1.8
21.8 21.0 16.2 18.0 12.1 8.4 11.1 4.1 0.5 -4.1 -13.1 -17.6 -16.6 -0.3 -7.3 2.6
9.8 10.5 8.5 10.2 7.3 7.7 8.6 9.4 7.5 6.4 5.1 4.5 4.6 6.6 6.6 7.9
5.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 2.9 5.6 5.4 4.5 5.0 4.7 4.4 2.7 2.5 3.9 2.7 3.7
10.7 9.7 11.9 10.5 10.6 11.5 10.1 12.1 9.5 8.0 8.2 5.7 5.6 7.7 6.5 10.0
13.9 13.9 11.8 15.2 13.2 14.6 16.1 14.1 14.0 10.6 11.9 10.4 10.1 11.3 11.9 14.0
39.5 38.3 36.6 40.5 34.1 39.4 40.1 40.1 36.0 29.8 29.7 23.4 22.8 29.6 27.7 35.7
4.5 2.3 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 2.6 0.4 -2.0 -3.5 -6.3 -3.9 -4.8 -1.8 -1.5 3.7
0.2 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.7
2.8 0.4 1.2 0.3 -0.3 -1.2 0.6 0.6 -2.3 -1.5 -3.4 -2.8 -3.4 -0.1 1.1 2.6
14.2 18.2 9.8 12.8 7.5 3.3 11.6 6.6 -5.7 -7.4 -14.3 -22.0 -18.7 -0.2 -2.2 10.6
21.8 21.7 16.4 16.0 8.4 2.8 14.9 8.3 -10.3 -12.3 -24.0 -29.0 -27.7 -1.5 -2.6 17.7
8.4 7.3 10.3 7.8 7.8 9.9 7.5 7.9 7.0 6.5 4.3 2.3 1.0 5.0 4.9 12.2
1.1 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.8 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 -0.2 0.6 0.3 1.0
4.5 4.1 4.6 4.2 2.3 4.1 4.0 5.1 3.4 3.2 2.6 3.1 0.8 4.3 4.7 6.5
38.6 42.6 37.2 43.0 35.5 40.9 42.1 38.0 38.9 33.3 27.2 25.3 26.5 37.5 27.3 42.0
52.7 55.3 53.5 55.7 46.4 55.6 54.6 52.8 49.7 44.4 35.2 31.2 28.2 47.5 37.2 61.7
17.4 18.2 12.9 12.5 6.3 2.5 12.7 6.5 -8.7 -10.3 -19.3 -23.7 -22.9 -3.2 -4.3 11.5
3.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.2 2.1 1.8 -1.2 -1.4 -2.7 -4.3 -2.0 1.4 1.7 4.1
0.8 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 0.4 0.0 2.1
21.8 21.6 16.4 16.0 8.4 2.6 15.0 8.3 -10.3 -12.3 -24.1 -29.0 -27.7 -1.4 -2.6 17.6
Year 2018
Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Current Month 14.5 24.5 28.9 28.9 34.7 13.6 21.5 24.8 23.2 24.0 30.5 25.9 22.1 28.2
Next Month 57.8 64.1 66.9 65.5 64.9 58.7 61.6 64.5 64.4 65.6 67.2 62.1 58.5 64.8
2. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Current Month

Manufacturing 16.3 23.4 23.6 28.2 27.2 11.3 18.3 18.6 21.1 22.3 28.6 33.1 22.3 27.2
Construction Sector 4.8 29.7 50.0 22.6 50.0 10.3 22.9 16.2 7.7 25.0 26.8 15.6 20.5 13.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 20.0 14.3 15.6 36.1 3.7 10.2 26.0 25.3 27.3 36.6 17.6 11.2 25.8
Agric/Services Sector of which: 15.5 25.0 31.0 31.1 37.8 16.6 25.2 28.8 25.3 24.6 30.8 23.5 23.6 30.1
Financial Intermediation 19.4 42.9 41.7 40.4 60.5 19.2 29.3 46.4 30.5 34.7 38.0 30.9 22.6 42.5
Hotels and Restaurants 9.5 17.9 15.0 5.6 8.1 -1.1 20.4 24.5 22.4 20.6 28.6 5.6 21.2 13.0
Agric and Other Business Activities 17.2 24.8 37.9 45.2 45.9 37.4 33.9 32.7 33.1 28.3 39.3 33.3 28.3 41.7
Community and Social Services 15.4 19.3 27.9 26.0 31.4 6.5 18.6 19.4 17.9 18.6 21.9 24.3 22.6 27.7
3. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Next Month
Manufacturing 52.0 52.1 56.0 59.8 56.9 51.1 57.1 57.9 63.0 57.2 65.5 60.6 54.4 60.9
Hotels and Restaurants 69.0 69.1 75.0 59.3 67.6 64.0 69.4 73.3 72.6 74.8 64.4 67.5 61.6 66.7
4. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Next 2 Months
Manufacturing 16.3 23.4 23.6 28.2 27.2 11.3 18.3 18.6 21.1 22.3 28.6 - - -
Construction Sector 4.8 29.7 50.0 22.6 50.0 10.3 22.9 16.2 7.7 25.0 26.8 - - -
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 20.0 14.3 15.6 36.1 3.7 10.2 26.0 25.3 27.3 36.6 - - -
Agric/Services Sector of which: 15.5 25.0 31.0 31.1 37.8 16.6 25.2 28.8 25.3 24.6 30.8 - - -
Financial Intermediation 19.4 42.9 41.7 40.4 60.5 19.2 29.3 46.4 30.5 34.7 38.0 - - -
Hotels and Restaurants 9.5 17.9 15.0 5.6 8.1 -1.1 20.4 24.5 22.4 20.6 28.6 - - -
Agric and Other Business Activities 17.2 24.8 37.9 45.2 45.9 37.4 33.9 32.7 33.1 28.3 39.3 - - -
Community and Social Services 15.4 19.3 27.9 26.0 31.4 6.5 18.6 19.4 17.9 18.6 21.9 - - -
5. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Next 6 Months
Manufacturing 52.0 52.1 56.0 59.8 56.9 51.1 57.1 57.9 63.0 57.2 65.5 - - -
Agric/Services Sector of which: 65.0 69.0 72.8 69.7 69.8 62.6 66.1 67.9 65.0 68.5 67.8 - - -
Financial Intermediation 52.8 71.4 76.7 77.2 81.4 51.0 70.7 75.3 71.6 63.3 72.0 - - -
Hotels and Restaurants 69.0 69.1 75.0 59.3 67.6 64.0 69.4 73.3 72.6 74.8 64.4 - - -
Agric and Other Business Activities 73.0 77.5 76.7 74.8 78.2 70.6 70.3 70.6 61.4 72.3 73.2 - - -
Community and Social Services 59.0 55.7 66.4 66.7 58.5 61.2 59.1 59.7 60.5 64.4 63.5 - - -
6. Business Confidence Index on Own Operations by Sector: Current Month
Manufacturing 6.1 6.8 0.0 11.3 7.7 -2.5 -3.2 6.6 13.4 9.9 23.1 14.9 10.5 10.3
Construction Sector -9.5 8.1 6.3 -6.5 3.3 -2.6 -5.9 -22.2 -10.5 2.5 0.0 18.8 -2.5 13.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade -6.3 20.0 7.1 3.0 13.9 3.7 15.9 5.5 24.1 12.6 23.7 24.1 24.7 22.5
Agric/Services Sector 3.9 6.1 13.1 18.1 14.1 4.9 14.9 17.0 16.7 15.0 20.9 14.4 16.1 12.7
7. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Current Month
Volume of Business Activity Index 7.1 13.3 18.5 16.1 16.1 4.6 10.0 15.2 18.8 18.7 22.7 16.4 15.4 15.4
Volume of Total Order Book Index 2.2 16.0 17.2 15.1 16.4 3.5 9.1 16.0 17.4 17.4 22.9 16.0 15.9 15.1
Credit Access Index -7.2 -12.2 -4.5 2.8 4.4 -3.5 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.9
Financial Condition Index 3.8 7.6 8.5 14.1 11.7 2.2 8.4 11.6 15.6 13.0 21.4 15.6 14.4 12.8
Average Capacity Utilization 8.3 16.5 20.0 22.7 23.4 10.0 15.9 18.3 23.0 20.8 25.5 22.5 21.7 20.0
8. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Next Month
Volume of Business Activity Index 67.0 69.2 71.1 64.4 66.7 66.2 68.2 70.4 69.8 64.7 75.7 67.4 64.4 69.3
Employment Outlook Index 21.9 27.9 23.6 26.0 27.0 24.2 24.5 24.4 27.5 25.1 30.7 27.6 24.8 25.9
9. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Next 2 Months
Volume of Business Activity Index 67.0 69.2 71.1 64.4 66.7 66.2 68.2 70.4 69.8 64.7 75.7 - - -
Employment Outlook Index 21.9 27.9 23.6 26.0 27.0 24.2 24.5 24.4 27.5 25.1 30.7 - - -
10. Business Outlook Index on Own Operations : Next 6 Months
Volume of Business Activity Index 67.0 69.2 71.1 64.4 66.7 66.2 68.2 70.4 69.8 64.7 75.7 - - -
Employment Outlook Index 21.9 27.9 23.6 26.0 27.0 24.2 24.5 24.4 27.5 25.1 30.7 - - -
11. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next Month
Manufacturing 20.9 21.5 19.5 23.6 26.4 17.1 22.0 21.1 24.4 26.6 36.4 29.3 24.6 31.5
12. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next 2 Months

Manufacturing 20.9 21.5 19.5 23.6 26.4 17.1 22.0 21.1 24.4 26.6 36.4 - - -
Year 2018
Agric/Services Sector 22.8 33.4 27.3 30.0 28.7 28.8 27.5 27.7 30.3 25.3 30.8 - - -
Manufacturing 20.9 21.5 19.5 23.6 26.4 17.1 22.0 21.1 24.4 26.6 36.4 - - -
14. Business with Expansion Plans (in per cent): Next Month
Manufacturing -2.9 -4.5 -28.6 -2.2 -10.4 8.8 5.9 -4.1 6.5 4.2 14.3 11.4 4.0 14.6
Construction Sector -6.7 14.3 27.3 11.1 21.7 0.0 -10.0 18.5 0.0 -8.3 -7.1 42.9 4.0 30.0
Wholesale and Retail Trade 28.6 0.0 -22.2 -9.1 21.7 31.8 7.7 16.7 17.9 11.1 5.7 3.4 10.0 -2.0
Hotels and Restaurants -13.0 -7.0 -10.0 -27.3 -9.1 11.1 0.0 8.5 9.4 14.7 5.6 20.0 22.4 2.5
15. Business Constraints: Current Month
High Interest Rate 65.2 61.0 60.2 54.4 59.9 58.1 57.0 54.9 54.4 57.9 57.5 60.0 55.2 55.3
Unclear Economic Laws 49.6 52.7 50.9 53.7 49.5 48.9 48.1 47.1 48.8 51.0 52.0 53.5 48.9 49.4
Lack of Equipment 30.3 32.3 35.6 34.8 27.7 32.6 34.8 31.9 31.6 32.4 32.3 36.6 33.7 31.5
Insufficient Demand 45.3 48.1 46.4 48.6 47.9 45.1 47.3 44.5 44.0 41.2 42.9 45.7 42.4 42.8
Access to Credit 43.4 42.6 41.4 41.6 41.6 40.9 42.2 40.4 42.7 41.3 42.6 43.7 41.4 41.8
Financial Problems 47.9 50.5 50.7 52.6 50.4 50.6 54.9 51.6 52.2 51.2 53.4 52.9 53.0 51.8
Competition 45.0 41.4 44.0 39.7 42.3 39.8 41.9 39.3 39.0 39.4 42.4 44.2 41.6 40.2
Labor Problems 7.6 12.8 12.8 14.2 13.2 11.5 12.9 14.0 14.4 16.6 14.4 21.3 19.5 17.9
Lack of Materials Input 22.5 27.8 27.9 28.1 22.1 21.6 30.2 24.5 24.7 23.8 26.8 28.4 27.6 27.3
Unfavourable Political Climate 45.2 43.7 46.7 49.7 46.0 45.1 46.0 46.9 48.0 48.6 47.5 50.8 51.8 50.0
Unfavourable Economic Climate 57.0 53.8 52.7 55.5 52.7 54.3 54.8 53.6 53.3 55.1 54.3 55.3 55.2 54.6
Insufficient Power Supply 72.0 70.7 69.6 67.6 63.6 64.1 66.0 65.9 67.2 64.7 64.0 61.6 63.3 63.9
16. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Current Month

N/$ Exchange Rate 19.9 26.7 25.4 33.3 29.5 27.3 27.9 29.9 23.3 19.4 22.3 23.0 23.3 33.1
Borrowing Rate -8.0 -13.4 -7.3 -5.9 -7.8 -6.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.8 7.1 20.0 17.6 15.5
Economic Growth Rate 4.5 2.6 1.4 6.5 1.6 5.6 - - - - - 35.5 34.3 37.7
17. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Next Month
N/$ Exchange Rate 33.1 40.8 39.1 43.7 44.6 44.8 43.9 41.5 41.3 33.2 35.4 31.9 32.6 44.9
Borrowing Rate -15.2 -15.8 -13.2 -16.9 -13.2 -15.0 -0.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.9 6.7 0.3 0.4
Economic Growth Rate -11.2 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 - - - - - 42.7 45.7 52.5
18. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Next 2 Months

N/$ Exchange Rate 33.1 40.8 39.1 43.7 44.6 44.8 - - - - - - - -
Borrowing Rate -15.2 -15.8 -13.2 -16.9 -13.2 -15.0 - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth Rate -11.2 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 - - - - - - - -
19. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Next 6 Months
N/$ Exchange Rate 33.1 40.8 39.1 43.7 44.6 44.8 - - - - - - - -
Borrowing Rate -15.2 -15.8 -13.2 -16.9 -13.2 -15.0 - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth Rate -11.2 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 - - - - - - - -
20. Business Outlook index on theLevel of Inflation: Next Six Months and Twelve
Months (in %)
Level of Inflation Next Six Months 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 11.70 11.30 11.23
Level of Inflation Next Twelve Months 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 11.60 11.06 11.07
21. Industral Sector Average Percentage of Installed Capacity: (in %)
Industrial Sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - -
22. Business Outlook Satisfaction index on the Management of Inflation: (in %)
Net Satisfaction Index 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 3.8 3.3 8.0
23. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Current
Month
Importer 15.6 17.7 23.9 19.6 29.3 13.7 13.6 15.9 14.0 22.1 20.6 22.4 22.7 23.2
Exporter 50.0 23.5 25.0 31.3 23.1 33.3 27.8 30.0 6.3 25.0 50.0 31.6 31.6 12.5
Both Importer and Exporter 21.8 29.1 27.1 22.2 36.7 18.5 24.0 27.8 15.2 15.2 31.0 29.5 23.2 27.7
Neither Importer nor exporter 10.4 25.9 31.3 32.8 36.8 11.8 23.0 26.3 27.3 26.0 32.1 25.8 21.4 29.5
24. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Next Month
Importer 48.1 58.9 53.6 59.8 52.6 50.8 43.5 55.3 55.9 58.6 61.8 55.6 48.0 53.0
Exporter 70.0 70.6 62.5 43.8 69.2 47.6 44.4 65.0 43.8 70.0 88.9 73.7 47.4 31.3
25. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Next 2
Months
Importer 48.1 58.9 53.6 59.8 52.6 50.8 43.5 55.3 55.9 58.6 61.8 - - -
Exporter 70.0 70.6 62.5 43.8 69.2 47.6 44.4 65.0 43.8 70.0 88.9 - - -
Both Importer and Exporter 50.9 62.8 63.5 63.3 58.9 61.5 57.2 61.9 64.9 60.1 63.5 - - -
Neither Importer nor exporter 62.2 65.7 71.8 68.8 70.2 60.5 67.9 67.3 66.9 68.6 68.5 - - -
26. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Type of Business: Next 6
Months
Importer 48.1 58.9 53.6 59.8 52.6 50.8 43.5 55.3 55.9 58.6 61.8 - - -
Exporter 70.0 70.6 62.5 43.8 69.2 47.6 44.4 65.0 43.8 70.0 88.9 - - -
27. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Current
Month
Small (<50) -3.9 13.5 19.4 24.5 33.2 8.3 20.0 21.1 24.1 22.1 31.5 24.3 21.4 29.0
Medium (50 and <200) 14.1 26.8 33.2 31.2 31.3 17.0 23.6 29.2 22.3 25.7 30.4 30.5 23.5 30.0
Large (200 and Up) 27.9 38.3 38.8 30.7 43.4 24.8 23.9 30.1 21.6 29.9 27.7 23.7 20.4 19.3
28. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Next Month
Small (<50) 54.5 62.0 69.9 68.1 69.4 58.9 65.8 67.8 66.9 66.8 66.5 63.1 62.2 68.4
Medium (50 and <200) 62.5 64.1 64.4 63.5 59.4 59.0 61.4 62.3 61.1 68.4 68.4 63.0 56.3 63.0
Large (200 and Up) 52.7 67.7 66.1 64.3 65.6 56.8 47.4 57.7 61.6 54.2 66.2 56.1 47.1 52.2
29. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Next 2
Months
Small (<50) 54.5 62.0 69.9 68.1 69.4 58.9 65.8 67.8 66.9 66.8 66.5 - - -
Medium (50 and <200) 62.5 64.1 64.4 63.5 59.4 59.0 61.4 62.3 61.1 68.4 68.4 - - -
Large (200 and Up) 52.7 67.7 66.1 64.3 65.6 56.8 47.4 57.7 61.6 54.2 66.2 - - -
30. Business Outlook index on the Macroeconomy by Size of Business: Next 6
Months
Small (<50) 54.5 62.0 69.9 68.1 69.4 58.9 65.8 67.8 66.9 66.8 66.5 - - -
Medium (50 and <200) 62.5 64.1 64.4 63.5 59.4 59.0 61.4 62.3 61.1 68.4 68.4 - - -
Large (200 and Up) 52.7 67.7 66.1 64.3 65.6 56.8 47.4 57.7 61.6 54.2 66.2 - - -
Importer 21.1 20.8 19.0 19.2 20.4 18.5 17.9 17.3 17.4 17.6 15.9 15.5 17.4 15.0
Exporter 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6
Small (<50) 21.0 38.6 38.2 39.1 41.3 53.5 53.4 55.8 55.6 56.0 55.4 54.6 57.3 58.9
Medium (50 and <200) 48.4 39.1 41.5 39.3 37.3 31.5 31.4 31.6 30.9 29.9 32.0 32.0 28.9 27.5
Large (200 and Up) 30.6 22.4 20.3 21.6 21.4 15.0 15.1 12.6 13.6 14.0 12.6 13.3 13.7 13.5
Sample Size (N) 497 650 650 650 650 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050
Response Rate(%) 73.6 91.8 91.7 91.8 87.5 94.7 97.9 93.4 98.4 98.3 98.6 94.8 97.4 96.2
All Sectors 366 597 596 597 569 994 1028 981 1033 1032 1035 995 1023 1010
Manufacturing 148 192 191 195 195 321 345 318 352 346 339 328 334 321
Construction Sector 21 37 32 31 30 39 35 37 39 40 41 32 40 36
Wholesale and Retail Trade 16 35 28 33 36 81 88 73 87 88 93 87 89 89
Agric/Services Sector of which: 181 333 345 338 308 553 560 553 555 558 562 548 560 564
Year 2018
Financial Intermediation 36 56 60 57 43 99 92 97 95 98 100 97 84 106
Hotels and Restaurants 42 68 60 54 37 90 98 102 107 107 119 125 152 138
Agric and Other Business Activities 64 121 103 104 110 163 165 153 158 159 151 141 138 132
Community and Social Services 39 88 122 123 118 201 205 201 195 194 192 185 186 188
34. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector Contribution: Current
Month
Manufacturing 6.6 7.5 7.6 9.2 9.3 3.6 6.1 6.0 7.2 7.5 9.4 10.9 7.3 8.6
14.5 24.5 28.9 28.8 34.7 13.6 21.5 24.8 23.2 24.0 30.5 25.9 22.0 28.2
57.8 64.1 66.9 65.5 64.8 58.7 61.6 64.5 64.4 65.6 67.2
37. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector Contribution: Next 6
Months
Manufacturing 12.8 15.7 13.3 13.0 15.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 9.4 11.1 10.7 - - -
19.3 24.2 27.1 27.2 27.7 24.0 23.2 23.4 21.0 23.4 22.7
38. Business Confidence Index on Own Operations by Sector: Current Month
Manufacturing 2.5 2.2 0.0 3.7 2.6 -0.8 -1.1 2.1 4.5 3.3 7.6 4.9 3.4 3.3
Construction Sector -0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.1 0.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade -0.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.4 0.4 2.0 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.6 7.2 8.3 13.8 11.3 2.1 8.2 11.3 15.2 12.6 21.0 15.6 14.3 12.8
39. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next Month
Manufacturing 8.5 6.9 6.2 7.7 9.0 5.5 7.4 6.8 8.3 8.9 11.9 9.6 8.0 10.0
Employment Outlook Index 21.9 27.9 23.6 26.0 27.0 24.2 24.5 24.4 27.5 25.1 30.7 27.6 24.8 25.9
Manufacturing 8.5 6.9 6.2 7.7 9.0 5.5 7.4 6.8 8.3 8.9 11.9 - - -
Employment Outlook Index 21.9 27.9 23.6 26.0 27.0 24.2 24.5 24.4 27.5 25.1 30.7
Manufacturing -1.2 2.9 4.7 1.9 4.2 0.0 -1.6 2.9 0.0 -1.3 -1.0 - - -
Construction Sector 3.0 0.0 -4.5 -1.9 4.5 6.4 1.5 3.4 3.4 2.1 1.1 - - -
Employment Outlook Index 2.8 3.7 0.8 0.6 9.4 6.6 0.2 6.6 3.7 1.1 0.4
42. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Current Month
Importer 3.3 3.7 4.5 3.8 6.0 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.4 3.9 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.5
Exporter 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2
Macroeconomic Outlook Index 14.3 24.6 29.1 28.4 34.9 13.5 21.5 24.8 23.1 23.9 30.5 25.9 22.1 28.0
43. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Next Month
Importer 10.1 12.3 10.2 11.5 10.7 9.4 7.8 9.6 9.7 10.3 9.9 8.6 8.4 7.9
Exporter 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.5
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Next Month 57.7 64.0 66.9 65.5 64.7 58.6 61.6 64.5 64.3 65.7 67.2 62.0 58.5 64.7
44. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Next 2 Months
Importer 10.1 12.3 10.2 11.5 10.7 9.4 7.8 9.6 9.7 10.3 9.9 - - -
Exporter 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.5 - - -
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Next Month 57.7 64.0 66.9 65.5 64.7 58.6 61.6 64.5 64.3 65.7 67.2
45. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by type of business: Next 6 Months
Importer 33.9 27.6 25.9 17.2 25.8 15.0 14.0 20.5 13.5 20.9 28.4 - - -
Exporter 15.6 14.1 12.9 13.7 12.6 9.2 8.7 7.8 8.8 8.4 8.0 - - -
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Next Month 49.4 41.6 38.9 30.9 38.4 24.2 22.6 28.3 22.3 29.4 36.4
46. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by Size of Business: Current Month
Small (<50) -0.8 5.2 7.4 9.6 13.7 4.4 10.7 11.8 13.4 12.4 17.4 13.3 12.3 17.1
Medium (50 and <200) 6.8 10.5 13.8 12.2 11.7 5.4 7.4 9.2 6.9 7.7 9.7 9.8 6.8 8.3
Large (200 and Up) 8.5 8.6 7.9 6.6 9.3 3.7 3.6 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.6
Macroeconomic Outlook Index: Current Month 14.6 24.3 29.1 28.4 34.7 13.5 21.7 24.8 23.2 24.3 30.6 26.2 21.9 28.0
47. Percentage Distribution of Respondent Firms by Sector
Manufacturing 40.4 32.2 32.0 32.7 34.3 32.3 33.6 32.4 34.1 33.5 32.8 33.0 32.6 31.8
2019
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
29.2 29.7 27.3 28.1 28.6 26.7 27.3 29.0 30.3

64.1 62.7 63.2 64.1 64.7 59.0 59.6 59.9 58.6
27.3 29.2 30.0 29.6 29.9 28.0 26.7 28.1 29.1

16.2 41.2 21.9 20.6 22.6 17.6 14.7 17.6 27.0
26.4 34.1 23.0 24.7 26.4 24.1 27.7 29.6 35.1
31.6 28.6 26.7 28.1 28.5 26.8 28.3 30.3 30.5
42.3 35.6 33.7 40.8 34.4 26.4 28.3 30.7 30.8
21.6 18.0 21.6 22.9 25.4 28.9 27.6 29.3 29.1
36.2 37.4 34.1 30.4 29.7 28.8 32.6 34.9 34.3

28.7 26.0 21.4 23.5 26.8 23.7 25.7 27.5 28.6
62.7 56.2 62.8 61.4 61.3 58.4 58.3 59.4 60.2

67.6 73.5 50.0 61.8 61.3 52.9 55.9 58.8 54.1
67.8 58.8 59.8 60.5 65.9 56.3 59.6 60.2 59.6
64.1 66.5 64.7 66.4 66.7 60.3 60.7 60.2 57.7
70.2 77.9 72.1 68.4 64.6 64.0 58.6 62.5 63.7
67.2 71.4 74.1 69.8 65.4 60.0 61.4 58.6 59.7
67.4 67.9 71.3 66.7 71.9 63.6 67.4 64.3 59.0

55.8 56.0 48.7 62.6 65.2 56.1 56.4 57.1 52.4
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
14.2 8.8 11.8 5.2 5.0 5.2 7.5 11.2 17.2

10.8 2.9 6.3 2.9 6.5 -2.9 5.9 2.9 2.7
19.5 9.4 11.5 12.3 14.3 17.2 18.1 9.2 21.3
17.1 15.7 14.0 15.1 14.6 13.3 13.5 15.1 16.8
21.5 15.0 14.9 13.0 14.3 12.9 16.2 17.3 21.3

21.7 15.0 13.8 11.8 12.7 12.8 15.7 17.3 20.9
1.0 -1.9 2.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 1.7 3.1 6.8
16.1 12.5 12.8 11.2 11.1 10.3 11.6 12.8 16.8
22.4 16.8 18.8 14.1 15.9 17.0 18.7 19.1 21.3
69.6 68.6 64.7 64.3 65.9 69.8 67.0 68.5 62.2

28.1 24.8 24.9 23.7 25.8 27.7 24.8 26.5 25.9
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
31.8 24.9 21.8 20.6 22.0 26.3 24.2 24.8 24.5

27.0 5.9 9.4 5.9 12.9 17.6 14.7 17.6 29.7
29.9 25.9 26.4 21.0 25.3 34.5 18.1 23.5 29.8
25.7 25.7 27.3 27.0 28.9 28.2 27.0 28.8 25.9
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
2019
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
7.4 8.3 -1.3 5.4 17.6 7.1 6.8 9.3 15.0

23.8 29.4 28.6 17.6 46.7 22.2 17.6 30.0 14.3
0.0 5.9 12.0 1.8 -1.8 -1.5 0.0 4.9 14.8
28.3 26.9 30.0 32.4 30.3 25.8 29.6 29.0 34.1
56.9 61.8 64.4 61.8 55.6 57.1 60.0 46.4 43.9
5.1 24.1 14.3 18.1 4.1 -4.2 -3.8 -6.7 13.2
36.3 22.7 24.7 34.9 33.3 31.0 30.1 35.6 54.8
21.1 11.9 24.0 23.7 30.9 25.2 35.1 38.6 28.3
55.5 56.4 57.3 56.5 56.5 56.8 57.6 57.8 59.1

49.8 51.7 51.3 49.3 50.8 52.0 52.1 50.4 52.3
33.3 33.1 35.8 33.3 31.7 33.0 32.4 33.1 33.9
43.6 45.4 49.4 46.3 46.0 48.8 46.5 45.0 44.9
42.0 44.4 44.7 44.8 45.6 44.4 43.9 42.5 42.7
52.5 54.3 53.4 55.7 53.7 53.9 54.9 55.0 53.8
43.2 44.0 44.7 43.6 43.0 44.2 45.3 44.7 44.2
18.0 20.2 21.0 19.5 18.5 19.5 21.9 20.8 21.3
28.9 30.6 31.4 29.6 28.9 27.6 31.5 28.3 29.8
48.6 48.3 48.9 45.0 47.0 48.9 49.1 45.3 47.0
54.1 55.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 55.0 55.9 53.8 53.2
67.8 69.3 66.4 67.6 65.9 65.7 67.3 66.3 66.1
26.1 28.5 27.3 24.8 27.5 21.7 23.8 25.5 26.7

16.5 3.7 4.1 0.9 5.5 6.7 7.5 4.2 12.5
38.1 36.2 38.0 33.3 35.4 35.1 33.5 36.5 34.5
41.4 40.1 41.9 37.9 38.4 36.0 36.7 37.6 37.5

1.9 2.4 0.2 -2.9 3.1 5.1 5.1 3.1 8.0
49.2 49.4 49.8 48.7 47.9 47.2 48.5 45.9 45.1
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
11.43 11.29 11.33 11.55 11.60 11.70 11.52 11.77 11.69

11.37 11.21 11.37 11.61 11.40 11.77 11.58 11.74 11.59
- - - - - - - - -
4.7 3.9 3.8 6.0 8.3 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.7
15.1 20.5 22.9 24.3 20.4 17.5 30.1 25.0 23.4

22.7 38.9 16.7 33.3 18.8 54.2 41.7 22.7 33.3
40.6 36.8 32.8 33.6 30.0 30.1 24.6 37.9 38.8
29.7 30.0 27.6 27.7 30.1 26.6 26.4 28.2 30.5
51.8 52.4 54.5 48.6 48.9 48.1 53.6 58.1 51.3

72.7 44.4 50.0 71.4 50.0 62.5 54.2 63.6 44.4
69.9 67.1 61.8 64.4 61.4 58.2 61.9 61.7 59.0
64.9 64.4 65.8 67.3 68.9 61.6 60.6 59.8 60.7
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
30.4 28.5 30.4 31.7 32.4 31.0 28.7 30.4 33.2

26.6 31.9 23.2 24.0 22.6 19.3 27.3 28.3 26.6
31.3 30.5 23.8 20.9 22.6 22.1 19.5 25.0 23.6
68.0 63.7 65.3 66.3 68.9 63.4 63.3 61.8 62.6

57.5 64.7 64.3 63.4 59.1 56.0 58.2 58.1 53.5
59.5 55.3 52.0 55.2 55.6 45.5 45.5 55.4 51.2
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
14.0 14.6 15.3 13.8 14.3 15.6 15.2 14.8 15.3

2.2 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8
13.4 14.3 13.0 14.4 14.2 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.3
70.4 69.3 69.9 69.7 69.9 68.4 69.2 69.7 69.7
59.0 56.9 59.0 57.9 60.3 59.9 60.1 60.0 59.0

27.8 29.2 28.4 28.9 27.2 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.4
13.2 13.9 12.6 13.2 12.6 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.6
1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050

94.9 97.0 97.0 97.4 95.4 95.0 97.1 95.6 97.1
996 1019 1018 1023 1002 997 1020 1004 1020
324 340 332 345 338 346 348 340 344
37 34 32 34 31 34 34 34 37
87 85 87 81 91 87 94 98 94
548 560 567 563 542 530 544 532 545
2019
104 104 104 98 96 89 99 88 91
125 133 139 140 134 136 134 133 135
138 131 137 138 128 132 132 129 134
181 192 187 187 184 173 179 182 185
8.9 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.8

0.6 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0
2.3 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2
17.4 15.7 14.9 15.4 15.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.3
29.2 29.7 27.3 28.1 28.6 26.7 27.3 29.0 30.3
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
4.6 3.0 3.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.8 5.8

0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
1.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 0.9 2.0
9.4 8.7 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.0 7.2 8.0 9.0
16.1 12.5 12.8 11.2 11.1 10.3 11.6 12.8 16.8
10.3 8.3 7.1 7.0 7.4 9.1 8.3 8.4 8.3

1.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1
2.6 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.3 3.0 1.7 2.3 2.7
14.2 14.1 15.2 14.9 15.6 15.0 14.4 15.3 13.8
28.1 24.8 24.9 23.7 25.8 27.7 24.8 26.5 25.9
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
2.1 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.7 4.6 3.7 3.6

0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6
5.4 5.3 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.3 5.0 5.2
20.9 20.8 19.3 19.3 21.0 18.2 18.2 19.6 21.2
29.0 29.7 27.4 28.2 28.5 26.3 27.1 28.9 30.6
7.3 7.7 8.3 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.6 7.8

1.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.8
9.4 9.6 8.0 9.3 8.7 7.9 8.2 8.2 7.8
45.7 44.6 46.0 46.9 48.2 42.1 41.9 41.7 42.3
63.9 62.7 63.3 64.4 64.7 59.0 59.6 59.9 58.7
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
17.9 16.2 17.9 18.4 19.5 18.6 17.2 18.2 19.6

7.4 9.3 6.6 6.9 6.1 5.4 7.6 7.9 7.5
4.1 4.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.0
29.5 29.8 27.5 28.1 28.5 26.7 27.2 29.2 30.1
32.5 33.4 32.6 33.7 33.7 34.7 34.1 33.9 33.7

3.7 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.6
8.7 8.3 8.5 7.9 9.1 8.7 9.2 9.8 9.2
55.0 55.0 55.7 55.0 54.1 53.2 53.3 53.0 53.4
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Table E.1.1.1: Business Expectations Survey - North Central
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Current Quarter
North Central 25.3 30.2 60.3 30.4 0.9 -8.6 4.9 29.4 9.5 27.6 30.2 31.2 62.9 50.5 31.8 6.4 28.6 11.7 19.8 32.3
Next Quarter
North Central 67.4 66.9 79.4 73.8 52.8 52.9 53.0 64.2 52.4 45.3 47.7 50.7 52.3 45.0 49.2 56.1 66.7 44.8 49.4 59.1
Industrial Sector 48.3 26.7 22.9 -2.5 -2.6 -25.0 -2.6 20.9 4.5 -2.8 9.1 27.0 47.6 27.0 -2.7 16.7 37.3 2.6 10.5 21.9
Construction Sector 3.1 27.3 100.0 50.0 -40.0 -55.6 -14.3 63.6 0.0 27.3 -12.5 -30.0 25.0 28.6 0.0 37.5 32.6 13.0 9.3 40.7
Wholesale and Retail Trade 25.0 35.6 70.6 42.2 8.8 8.5 5.6 15.4 83.3 42.2 39.3 12.5 64.3 7.4 34.4 -4.7 23.4 13.2 25.6 42.2
Services Sector of which: 0.0 40.0 66.7 56.3 -12.5 7.1 25.0 53.3 10.0 38.7 42.2 61.4 86.5 80.7 51.9 10.0 26.0 15.6 25.8 28.1
Financial Intermediation 40.0 0.0 100.0 66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 -6.7 -36.4 -25.0 16.7 6.7 29.0 42.9 26.9
Hotels and Restaurants 25.0 38.5 58.3 4.5 0.0 14.3 12.5 28.6 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 18.2 25.0 24.1
Renting and Business Activities 20.0 -12.5 92.9 72.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 9.4 6.5 13.2
Community and Social Services 14.3 0.0 80.0 40.0 66.7 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.5 6.3 30.3 45.2
3. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Next Quarter
Industrial Sector 80.7 71.6 68.6 69.2 43.6 49.3 51.9 55.8 36.4 41.7 36.4 43.2 41.5 45.9 16.2 55.6 69.3 42.9 50.0 56.2
Construction Sector 56.3 63.6 100.0 80.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 57.1 90.9 0.0 60.0 81.3 57.1 62.5 62.5 60.5 42.6 27.8 66.1
Wholesale and Retail Trade 58.3 64.4 94.1 80.0 58.8 52.2 52.8 61.5 66.7 46.7 53.6 43.8 50.0 66.7 59.4 53.1 62.8 49.5 51.1 61.4
Services Sector of which: 68.2 53.3 91.7 81.3 25.0 64.3 53.6 73.3 60.0 38.7 49.5 53.5 49.0 36.7 54.7 62.0 70.2 43.8 57.0 56.3
Financial Intermediation 80.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 50.0 70.6 57.9 80.0 54.5 66.7 38.9 83.3 61.3 85.7 61.5
Hotels and Restaurants 100.0 61.5 66.7 77.3 76.5 78.6 81.3 57.1 63.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8 36.4 52.8 44.8
Renting and Business Activities 50.0 62.5 64.3 81.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.3 43.8 45.2 57.9
Industrial Sector 39.7 22.7 -2.9 -5.1 2.6 -5.3 -36.3 18.6 4.5 -22.2 -24.2 -2.7 7.1 -16.2 -16.2 19.2 25.3 3.9 12.0 19.2
Construction Sector -15.6 18.2 66.7 20.0 -40.0 -22.2 -0.5 18.2 14.3 -18.2 -25.0 -50.0 31.3 7.1 0.0 6.3 37.2 9.3 11.1 39.0
Wholesale and Retail Trade 2.8 15.6 58.8 44.4 20.6 12.8 5.5 3.8 33.3 2.2 7.1 -18.8 3.6 -29.6 0.0 14.4 23.4 7.7 27.8 22.9
Services Sector 30.8 26.2 61.1 42.3 -7.1 0.0 21.3 40.0 -10.0 8.0 -1.8 10.9 8.3 14.7 10.4 31.3 28.2 18.0 26.8 23.7
Volume of Business Activity Index 33.7 40.7 47.6 32.7 9.4 0.6 11.6 16.5 -7.9 19.3 24.1 15.1 38.6 42.5 30.8 18.7 31.2 18.6 31.3 35.7
Volume of Total Order Book Index 43.8 38.9 55.6 35.1 8.5 -1.7 15.2 11.0 -3.2 11.6 20.0 6.0 29.0 10.6 8.2 13.1 32.7 20.0 29.0 34.3
Credit Access Index 14.0 0.6 32.6 21.4 -17.9 -20.7 -19.5 -33.1 -3.2 9.4 4.1 -1.5 15.2 -1.5 0.5 -13.4 6.4 -4.0 7.1 7.8
Financial Condition Index 19.7 19.2 42.8 29.8 3.8 2.3 4.9 12.8 4.7 3.3 4.1 -2.0 8.7 2.0 2.5 11.7 27.4 10.9 21.2 25.1
Average Capacity Utilization 32.6 33.1 56.4 28.6 12.3 5.2 13.4 22.9 9.5 16.6 20.6 15.6 21.3 9.6 6.7 10.1 29.5 16.5 27.0 25.7
Volume of Business Activity Index 80.3 82.6 94.4 82.7 66.0 71.3 65.9 66.1 55.6 56.9 60.0 69.4 65.5 50.5 50.7 69.4 75.0 61.4 61.2 59.5
Employment Outlook Index 50.0 46.5 66.6 57.1 34.0 30.5 37.2 47.7 11.2 56.9 65.7 70.4 67.5 73.2 53.9 52.7 48.1 40.8 39.9 39.1
Industrial Sector 74.1 76.0 25.0 71.8 59.0 40.8 46.8 44.2 -27.3 41.7 21.2 -45.9 0.0 -54.1 -2.7 27.8 49.3 19.5 41.3 39.7
Construction Sector 75.0 63.6 3.0 80.0 0.0 33.3 71.4 72.7 42.9 81.8 25.0 40.0 -12.5 -60.0 25.0 25.0 58.1 18.5 15.4 32.2
Wholesale and Retail Trade 80.6 71.1 32.0 77.8 64.7 63.8 52.8 73.1 66.7 68.9 71.4 65.6 -32.1 -37.5 -6.3 46.9 66.0 38.5 51.1 59.0
Services Sector of which: 77.3 86.7 12.0 93.8 87.5 71.4 66.7 80.0 20.0 64.0 37.6 37.6 15.8 -27.7 30.2 42.0 69.5 28.1 51.6 43.7
Financial Intermediation 60.0 0.0 1.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 64.3 0.0 36.8 -6.7 -42.1 16.7 22.2 73.3 48.4 71.4 23.1
Hotels and Restaurants 100.0 69.2 8.0 68.2 64.7 64.3 62.5 71.4 9.1 0.0 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8 15.2 38.9 24.1
Renting and Business Activities 75.0 62.5 10.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 43.8 41.9 57.9
Table E.1.1.1: Business Expectations Survey - North Central
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High Interest Rate 64.0 58.1 59.5 58.2 38.7 56.0 53.0 77.0 50.8 78.7 63.9 59.6 65.0 69.7 56.7 54.2 43.9 45.0 42.2 42.4
Unclear Economic Laws 34.0 30.3 35.7 32.5 50.5 38.2 39.0 44.0 36.6 47.3 50.6 36.8 37.7 39.0 37.7 47.1 35.1 31.7 39.0 33.4
Lack of Equipment 25.8 6.7 17.5 26.7 25.0 21.8 11.0 24.5 30.2 43.1 56.7 43.5 47.8 41.0 35.3 27.0 23.9 8.3 23.5 23.7
Insufficient Demand 12.6 3.8 21.4 25.0 35.8 21.8 20.1 8.5 22.3 36.5 52.1 40.0 26.8 20.2 24.3 39.3 30.5 15.4 22.9 22.6
Access to Credit 42.7 10.5 24.6 29.6 41.0 21.0 22.9 17.5 27.8 41.7 44.2 46.0 40.1 27.1 24.9 33.6 33.7 34.5 41.5 43.2
Financial Problems 56.5 42.5 33.7 45.8 41.0 42.5 41.2 72.0 27.0 50.0 52.6 48.1 45.5 51.3 30.6 56.2 49.1 57.2 58.4 49.8
Competition 34.0 42.5 42.1 35.8 49.1 35.3 22.0 32.5 29.4 38.2 49.0 43.1 53.4 31.3 42.8 48.2 45.4 50.0 40.3 37.6
Labor Problems 0.3 -20.9 -20.6 -10.5 16.5 -1.1 0.9 -27.5 29.3 27.9 28.5 24.1 46.5 44.9 29.2 7.5 8.6 2.8 8.8 5.7
Lack of Materials Input 12.4 4.1 12.3 15.9 15.6 13.8 -7.0 -8.5 7.2 23.2 25.1 9.2 9.1 2.3 11.0 17.0 6.3 3.6 20.3 14.0
Unfavourable Political Climate 13.5 7.3 13.5 31.9 33.0 29.3 18.9 47.0 38.1 36.5 47.2 38.7 22.9 29.4 22.1 43.0 28.2 36.8 40.8 39.2
Unfavourable Economic Climate 48.3 41.3 35.0 48.8 51.4 47.1 39.9 62.0 90.6 49.7 36.9 35.7 51.6 38.7 32.5 45.4 38.1 46.4 44.6 40.0
Insufficient Power Supply 66.3 77.3 80.6 73.3 21.2 71.0 77.1 94.5 73.0 62.7 65.4 60.6 70.3 52.4 59.3 48.5 57.3 71.0 65.8 62.2
9. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Current Quarter
N/$ Exchange Rate 5.6 25.6 33.3 17.9 -2.8 9.8 6.7 19.3 -1.6 38.7 40.0 58.7 59.4 43.4 22.0 16.5 15.2 14.6 6.7 15.1
Inflation Rate 29.2 16.3 40.5 25.0 2.8 19.5 7.3 -6.4 9.5 0.5 -23.6 -16.1 -17.3 5.5 24.1 39.6 20.4 6.5 34.2 30.6
Borrowing Rate -6.2 3.5 4.8 -0.6 -33.0 -9.2 -12.8 -50.5 -4.8 10.5 -8.7 -23.6 -3.1 6.5 17.5 7.7 11.7 -4.2 17.5 30.6
10. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Next Quarter
N/$ Exchange Rate 23.0 39.6 11.9 16.1 17.0 5.7 9.1 13.7 9.5 16.1 20.6 28.2 -1.5 35.4 26.2 28.6 20.1 23.1 3.4 12.6
Inflation Rate 4.5 1.2 4.8 4.8 -14.2 -8.0 0.0 -21.1 4.8 12.7 -24.6 41.2 25.4 31.8 27.2 25.5 15.4 -3.7 23.0 25.7
Borrowing Rate 0.6 0.0 15.9 0.0 -33.0 -12.6 -12.8 -46.8 -6.4 -9.9 -14.4 -25.6 -6.1 12.1 5.7 -11.1 6.1 -9.7 12.9 20.9
Importer 9.0 14.0 34.1 40.5 20.8 16.7 12.8 10.1 6.3 13.8 13.3 9.0 28.9 16.2 9.7 18.1 13.4 10.9 9.8 15.7
Exporter 1.7 3.5 0.8 1.2 4.7 5.2 3.7 6.4 3.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 24.2 3.1 3.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 2.0
Both Importer and Exporter 12.9 12.2 7.9 7.7 11.3 12.1 8.5 7.3 17.5 11.6 9.2 7.5 4.6 9.6 7.2 8.4 13.1 10.3 10.3 5.7
Neither Importer nor exporter 75.8 70.3 48.4 47.6 63.2 66.1 75.0 76.1 73.0 73.5 75.4 81.4 64.5 50.0 80.0 70.1 72.6 77.7 79.0 76.6
Small (<50) 88.8 79.7 90.5 79.0 66.0 72.4 74.4 73.4 65.1 68.5 81.5 74.4 78.7 54.0 77.4 86.6 82.2 84.9 87.6 86.0
Medium (50 and <200) 7.3 15.7 7.1 13.8 26.4 19.5 14.6 21.1 27.0 24.9 14.4 21.1 17.3 25.8 10.8 9.1 11.7 10.3 8.6 8.6
Large (200 and Up) 3.9 4.7 2.4 6.6 7.5 8.0 11.0 5.5 7.9 6.6 4.1 4.5 4.1 20.2 11.8 4.4 6.1 4.6 3.7 5.4
No Response 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 178 173 126 167 106 174 164 109 63 181 195 199 197 198 195 298 344 350 348 350.0
Industrial Sector 58 75 35 40 39 76 77 43 22 36 33 37 42 37 37 36 75 77 76 73
Construction Sector 32 11 3 10 5 9 7 11 14 11 8 10 16 14 8 16 43 54 54 59
Wholesale and Retail Trade 36 45 34 45 34 47 36 26 6 45 28 32 28 27 32 128 94 91 90 83
Services Sector of which: 52 42 54 72 28 42 44 29 21 89 126 120 111 120 118 118 132 128 128 135
Financial Intermediation 5 1 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 31 28 26
Hotels and Restaurants 8 13 12 22 17 28 16 7 11 0 17 19 15 11 12 18 32 33 36 29
Renting and Business Activities 10 8 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 32 31 38
Community and Social Services 7 5 15 20 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 32 33 42.0
Industrial Sector 15.7 11.6 6.4 -0.6 -0.9 -10.9 -1.2 8.3 1.6 -0.6 1.5 5.0 10.2 5.1 -0.5 2.0 8.1 0.6 2.3 4.6
Construction Sector 0.6 1.7 2.4 3.0 -1.9 -2.9 -0.6 6.4 0.0 1.7 -0.5 -1.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.1 2.0 1.4 6.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade 5.1 9.2 19.1 11.4 2.8 2.3 1.2 3.7 7.9 10.5 5.6 2.0 9.1 1.0 5.6 -2.0 6.4 3.4 6.6 10.0
Services Sector 0.0 9.7 28.6 24.3 -3.3 1.7 6.7 14.2 3.3 19.0 27.3 37.0 48.7 48.9 31.4 4.0 10.0 5.7 9.5 10.9
Industrial Sector 12.9 9.8 -0.8 -1.2 1.0 -2.3 -17.0 7.3 1.6 -4.4 -4.1 -0.5 1.5 -3.0 -3.1 2.3 5.5 0.9 2.6 4.0
Construction Sector -2.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 1.8 3.2 -1.1 -1.0 -2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 4.7 1.4 1.7 6.6
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.6 4.0 15.9 12.0 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.9 3.2 0.6 1.0 -3.0 0.5 -4.0 0.0 6.2 6.4 2.0 7.2 5.4
Services Sector 9.0 6.4 26.2 18.2 -1.9 0.0 5.7 10.6 -3.3 3.9 -1.2 6.6 4.7 8.9 6.3 12.4 10.8 6.6 9.8 9.1
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
25.3 13.5 20.6 12.7 17.1 22.9 30.2 23.4 -1.7 22.5 -5.5 -2.6 -1.7 -22.1 -23.4 -25.4 6.4 -15.1 32.7
50.3 49.2 52.0 39.5 55.7 50.9 65.9 52.9 48.0 48.4 43.1 43.8 43.6 23.8 14.5 31.9 54.9 25.4 69.9
21.9 13.8 16.9 25.7 2.9 20.9 29.4 33.3 -4.4 1.6 -9.3 -2.7 7.2 -22.7 -22.9 -43.2 0.0 -20.9 43.5
25.0 1.8 28.6 -1.9 10.2 34.0 9.1 6.1 -8.5 30.2 -8.3 -4.0 -2.0 2.0 -20.4 -39.6 0.0 0.0 33.3
26.4 12.6 27.1 12.4 29.9 32.4 37.5 31.1 5.9 40.5 1.2 2.1 -3.0 -43.2 -27.8 -19.5 15.4 -8.3 21.6
26.6 18.8 14.5 11.8 17.6 11.2 32.8 19.3 -3.9 18.5 -6.4 -5.5 -5.4 -17.8 -21.9 -14.3 6.1 -20.9 34.8
48.4 18.5 -3.2 6.9 26.7 24.0 30.8 18.5 -10.7 28.6 3.8 -26.7 3.8 -7.7 -16.0 13.3 17.9 -26.9 62.1
-3.0 20.6 11.4 21.2 -9.1 -2.9 3.0 -14.3 2.9 -2.6 -4.8 0.0 -2.9 -42.9 -20.6 -34.1 -7.7 -30.6 35.6
28.1 15.2 34.3 9.4 18.9 3.4 53.1 24.1 -5.9 38.7 -3.0 -9.1 -33.3 -15.6 -32.4 3.7 14.3 -18.8 21.6
34.4 20.6 13.3 9.5 33.3 22.2 41.9 43.2 -3.1 15.2 -17.9 13.8 10.8 -4.8 -17.1 -28.6 5.6 -8.6 22.2
47.9 45.0 47.9 41.4 51.5 56.7 69.1 46.0 52.9 46.0 38.7 45.3 43.5 16.0 27.1 20.3 50.6 20.9 73.9
40.4 36.4 55.6 32.7 42.9 51.1 31.8 36.7 42.6 46.5 31.3 28.0 46.9 34.7 -2.0 29.2 44.7 19.6 64.3
60.4 52.9 60.0 44.9 67.0 55.0 76.1 57.3 54.9 41.7 51.8 40.4 37.6 17.3 17.8 28.7 53.8 34.5 64.6
48.4 54.7 50.0 37.5 54.4 44.0 68.7 58.5 41.9 54.6 44.3 51.6 46.9 28.1 11.7 44.7 65.9 26.4 73.2
77.4 63.0 54.8 44.8 60.0 52.0 69.2 81.5 42.9 57.1 53.8 30.0 57.7 38.5 16.0 40.0 78.6 26.9 69.0
33.3 47.1 57.1 54.5 36.4 42.9 63.6 45.7 45.7 55.3 35.7 66.7 35.3 -5.7 2.9 67.7 74.2 14.3 66.7
50.0 48.5 57.1 37.5 48.6 55.2 75.0 44.8 41.2 58.1 48.5 54.5 57.6 34.4 13.5 22.2 50.0 40.6 78.4
34.4 61.8 30.0 19.0 72.2 30.6 67.4 63.6 37.5 48.5 43.6 51.7 40.5 45.2 14.6 45.7 61.1 22.9 81.5
16.4 20.0 14.1 1.4 19.1 1.5 20.6 19.0 -2.9 15.9 -24.0 -2.7 7.2 -14.7 -34.3 -20.3 3.9 -23.1 4.3
13.5 5.5 22.2 7.7 -4.1 21.3 13.6 8.2 -4.3 18.6 -41.7 -18.0 12.2 -4.1 -30.6 -25.0 8.5 -21.7 0.0
23.1 19.5 35.3 11.2 36.1 26.1 34.1 24.3 2.9 21.4 -7.2 -9.6 5.9 -30.4 -23.3 -9.2 6.6 -25.0 -6.2
20.3 16.4 24.4 4.4 27.2 11.2 19.4 31.9 3.9 6.2 -20.0 -10.9 6.2 -6.0 -16.1 -21.1 3.1 -23.3 0.7
25.8 23.7 27.4 9.2 22.3 21.1 28.4 27.1 6.4 20.3 -7.2 4.0 5.4 -17.1 -13.9 -11.4 14.2 -14.3 11.3
27.9 25.2 27.4 11.5 22.6 20.6 29.9 30.0 6.1 16.9 -12.7 -2.3 1.4 -19.4 -16.8 -14.9 10.7 -22.9 9.0
7.3 7.2 15.7 2.0 3.7 6.0 9.6 8.0 -6.6 -4.7 -16.2 -7.8 -6.6 -15.6 -14.2 -14.9 -6.9 -17.7 -30.1
19.1 16.3 24.6 6.1 23.9 15.4 22.8 24.0 1.2 13.8 -20.8 -9.8 7.2 -13.2 -23.7 -18.4 4.9 -23.4 -0.6
26.4 22.6 26.3 12.4 27.3 20.9 27.2 28.0 9.5 23.1 -6.9 2.9 15.8 -4.1 -11.8 -3.8 12.4 0.3 -4.3
60.5 63.7 58.9 53.9 66.7 59.4 75.7 63.7 49.7 54.7 48.6 45.0 58.2 40.0 20.8 40.1 65.3 32.0 63.3
35.5 47.7 44.6 29.4 44.0 40.9 53.0 43.4 35.8 40.9 34.7 23.9 35.2 29.4 15.3 24.9 33.8 22.6 34.7
64.4 60.0 59.2 57.1 70.6 59.7 61.8 58.7 66.2 68.3 65.3 49.3 56.7 42.7 50.0 66.2 49.4 66.7 42.9
61.5 56.4 66.1 57.7 57.1 59.6 50.0 51.0 68.1 72.1 72.9 54.0 75.5 51.0 49.0 68.8 45.7 58.7 52.9
68.1 66.3 78.8 64.0 77.3 71.2 64.8 67.0 80.2 73.8 80.7 58.5 67.7 38.0 61.4 63.2 52.7 66.7 46.0
63.3 69.5 71.0 58.8 73.5 59.2 62.7 61.5 69.5 69.0 68.6 54.7 64.6 54.1 48.9 59.1 52.7 61.2 50.0
64.5 70.4 61.3 55.2 70.0 60.0 61.5 66.7 63.0 53.6 65.4 53.3 64.0 46.2 48.0 56.7 46.4 53.8 76.0
57.6 61.8 68.6 57.6 69.7 54.3 60.6 62.9 80.0 65.8 69.0 44.4 52.9 45.7 55.9 53.7 43.6 66.7 27.3
68.8 72.7 91.4 62.5 75.7 62.1 62.5 51.7 58.8 76.7 69.7 63.6 81.8 59.4 51.4 63.0 60.7 59.4 50.0
62.5 73.5 60.0 59.5 77.8 61.1 65.1 63.6 75.0 78.8 69.2 58.6 60.0 62.5 41.0 64.7 61.1 62.9 54.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
41.5 52.1 45.7 38.6 37.9 55.6 43.7 60.0 50.3 44.7 51.4 50.4 53.4 54.3 56.9 43.1 49.7 27.6 62.9
30.4 47.2 35.7 24.9 22.7 40.6 31.7 43.4 38.4 28.8 34.2 43.4 41.1 43.4 47.5 41.5 38.4 35.1 55.3
12.6 30.6 12.7 4.6 16.0 35.3 4.5 22.0 24.7 16.6 16.0 20.6 29.4 25.2 27.6 31.6 21.2 28.7 36.6
19.0 34.95 24.4 11.5 27.1 36.7 34.0 25.1 38.3 28.4 30.8 24.9 35.7 42.2 42.3 29.4 37.0 30.6 49.0
39.0 31.55 35.3 30.7 22.7 46.3 27.8 40.9 37.7 23.4 40.2 23.5 48.0 44.9 50.7 32.0 33.1 21.0 43.3
49.8 53.3 47.3 39.9 45.4 54.9 36.4 42.1 51.7 47.8 54.6 45.5 60.3 61.6 57.5 49.4 56.5 43.4 61.7
48.6 53.1 43.0 33.4 51.1 56.9 52.5 49.6 45.1 35.8 43.4 45.0 48.7 51.9 43.1 25.9 46.7 38.9 40.0
-0.1 19.8 8.9 -7.8 1.7 24.9 -0.7 11.0 15.2 5.9 10.1 11.5 13.0 17.3 25.7 15.5 8.4 15.0 23.6
-2.8 14.25 11.4 0.0 9.7 25.7 6.6 16.7 14.0 9.1 2.2 16.1 29.7 24.6 35.3 24.9 18.1 29.0 30.2
26.7 38.7 33.0 26.1 32.6 38.3 35.6 41.6 34.7 26.4 34.8 34.3 41.3 40.6 53.2 45.5 47.7 38.9 42.2
31.4 50.35 41.6 28.7 39.9 48.0 40.6 49.6 44.9 36.3 41.5 40.8 54.2 48.2 54.5 51.9 56.2 40.1 50.4
65.4 66.2 67.7 48.1 61.4 64.7 60.5 68.3 65.2 68.6 49.3 44.2 70.9 67.8 67.1 68.0 66.0 45.6 58.8
4.9 3.7 20.3 -10.4 36.8 15.1 15.6 12.9 -0.3 6.6 -7.2 -13.3 -14.0 -15.0 -27.7 -23.4 6.9 -23.7 11.3
18.1 14.9 5.1 7.2 -4.9 6.0 19.5 10.9 3.5 3.8 -3.8 19.9 26.6 24.7 31.5 35.7 3.5 14.3 12.7
15.7 20.6 10.3 6.9 -0.9 8.3 4.8 14.6 2.3 4.4 -7.2 7.5 4.9 17.4 5.5 7.6 10.4 -20.0 21.4
12.2 23.1 23.7 0.3 36.5 24.6 19.2 15.4 21.1 13.1 13.9 0.0 -3.4 7.6 -14.5 -5.3 28.0 5.7 48.0
20.9 2.8 -1.7 9.8 -6.0 -6.0 9.0 -6.6 -13.0 -18.8 -11.6 10.7 3.4 5.3 9.2 10.8 -25.4 -20.9 -5.5
8.8 -2.3 1.1 11.2 -4.3 7.7 -1.8 -4.0 -10.1 -13.1 -23.1 14.7 8.0 3.8 8.4 6.7 -9.2 -1.7 9.5
16.6 16.0 12.0 11.8 11.7 21.1 11.7 20.9 15.7 15.0 10.1 14.4 17.5 5.3 14.7 10.5 10.1 13.4 18.8
1.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.4 2.6 3.2 1.3 2.3 1.7 2.0 0.0 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.7 3.2
8.1 13.7 3.7 7.5 9.7 6.9 4.2 9.7 6.1 4.7 9.0 8.6 4.3 11.2 5.5 7.9 8.1 6.6 11.8
73.5 69.4 82.6 79.8 76.3 69.1 81.7 66.9 75.1 79.1 78.6 75.2 76.2 83.5 76.9 80.1 80.3 78.3 66.2
80.5 87.4 86.6 85.3 84.5 85.1 90.4 85.1 84.7 90.0 79.2 80.7 86.8 81.2 87.0 87.4 85.8 83.7 74.8
13.7 9.4 8.9 10.1 10.3 12.0 8.7 10.9 11.3 8.1 13.6 13.5 12.0 15.0 10.7 9.1 11.0 14.6 18.8
5.5 3.1 4.6 4.6 5.2 2.9 0.9 4.0 4.0 1.9 7.2 5.8 1.1 3.8 2.3 3.5 3.2 1.7 6.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
344 350 350 347 350 350.0 334.0 350 346 320 346 347 349 340 346 342 346 350 346.0
73 80 71 70 68 67.0 68.0 63 68 63 75 75 69 75 70 74 77 91 69.0
52 55 63 52 49 47.0 44.0 49 47 43 48 50 49 49 49 48 47 46 42.0
91 87 85 89 97 111.0 88.0 103 102 84 83 94 101 81 90 87 91 84 97.0
128 128 131 136 136 125.0 134.0 135 129 130 140 128 130 135 137 133 131 129 138.0
31 27 31 29 30 25.0 26.0 27 28 28 26 30 26 26 25 30 28 26 29.0
33 34 35 33 33 35.0 33.0 35 35 38 42 36 34 35 34 41 39 36 45.0
32 33 35 32 37 29.00 32.00 29 34 31 33 33 33 32 37 27 28 32 37.00
32.0 34.0 30.0 42.0 36.0 36.0 43.0 44 32 33 39 29 37 42 41 35 36 35 27.0
4.7 3.1 3.4 5.2 0.6 4.0 6.0 6.0 -0.9 0.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.4 -5.0 -4.6 -9.4 0.0 -5.4 8.7
3.8 0.3 5.1 -0.3 1.4 4.6 1.2 0.9 -1.2 4.1 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -5.6 0.0 0.0 4.0
7.0 3.1 6.6 3.2 8.3 10.3 9.9 9.1 1.7 10.6 0.3 0.6 -0.9 -10.3 -7.2 -5.0 4.0 -2.0 6.1
9.9 6.9 5.4 4.6 6.9 4.0 13.2 7.4 -1.4 7.5 -2.6 -2.0 -2.0 -7.1 -8.7 -5.6 2.3 -7.7 13.9
3.5 4.6 2.9 0.3 3.7 0.3 4.2 3.4 -0.6 3.1 -5.2 -0.6 1.4 -3.2 -6.9 -4.4 0.9 -6.0 0.9
2.0 0.9 4.0 1.2 -0.6 2.9 1.8 1.1 -0.6 2.5 -5.8 -2.6 1.7 -0.6 -4.3 -3.5 1.2 -2.9 0.0
6.1 4.9 8.6 2.9 10.0 8.3 9.0 7.1 0.9 5.6 -1.7 -2.6 1.7 -7.2 -6.1 -2.3 1.7 -6.0 -1.7
7.6 6.0 9.1 1.7 10.6 4.0 7.8 12.3 1.4 2.5 -8.1 -4.0 2.3 -2.4 -6.4 -8.2 1.2 -8.6 0.3
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Table E.1.1.2: Business Expectations Survey - North East
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Current Quarter
North East 0.0 8.7 11.95652 3.3 4.6 34.4 2.4 -15 15.5 36.0 56.2 55.7 58.3 37.7 30.7 39.0 5.6 15.8 -9.3 29.8 11.8
Next Quarter
North East 60.0 52.2 36.9 39.1 43.1 81.7 50.0 75 66.6 37.0 35.6 50.0 54.3 37.7 38.2 44.4 48.4 47.6 53.9 69.6 48.8
Industrial Sector 25.9 -12.5 17.2 3.4 6.3 21.9 18.2 -15.0 37.8 44.0 61.5 59.1 40.5 41.0 20.0 41.5 4.7 10.0 -3.4 23.0 15.0
Construction Sector 50.0 33.3 0.0 -50.0 0.0 40.0 -100.0 0.0 37.5 -15.8 14.3 50.0 25.0 26.7 -20.0 40.9 4.7 12.2 -10.3 41.9 13.2
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 50.0 -6.3 -14.3 -15.4 55.6 -28.6 28.6 -13.3 36.6 57.1 50.0 50.0 37.8 6.1 29.7 3.9 22.7 -8.3 43.8 11.5
Services Sector of which: -52.6 -16.7 26.3 4.8 -7.7 47.6 -66.7 -100.0 -11.8 43.0 62.2 61.4 72.1 42.1 48.1 46.1 7.5 15.8 -12.6 19.1 9.9
Financial Intermediation 0.0 0.0 -50.0 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.7 43.8 25.0 43.8 18.8 35.3 18.5 28.6 20.0 -16.7 24.0 16.0
Hotels and Restaurants 0.0 9.1 20.0 18.2 33.3 -16.7 75.0 -20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.9 -6.3 -18.5 31.0 -6.9
Renting and Business Activities 16.7 40.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 41.9 -4.3 12.5 10.0
Community and Social Services 0.0 -20.0 16.7 66.7 16.7 25.0 -25.0 -33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 9.7 -21.1 10.3 22.2
Industrial Sector 70.4 29.2 31.0 32.1 31.3 78.1 59.1 70.0 78.4 40.0 53.8 47.0 75.7 46.2 33.3 43.4 45.3 51.7 58.6 59.0 36.7
Construction Sector 50.0 100.0 66.7 100.0 100.0 80.0 0.0 100.0 62.5 47.4 14.3 50.0 37.5 33.3 20.0 50.0 44.2 34.1 66.7 74.4 60.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade 71.4 75.0 31.3 28.6 53.8 100.0 14.3 85.7 33.3 31.7 57.1 61.5 62.5 45.9 12.1 62.2 44.7 45.3 56.9 77.5 46.2
Services Sector of which: 15.8 33.3 42.1 47.6 15.4 76.2 33.3 33.3 70.6 33.8 18.9 47.7 45.1 28.9 46.2 32.4 54.7 51.8 45.0 67.8 53.2
Financial Intermediation 100.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4 46.2 56.3 56.3 75.0 43.8 64.7 63.0 85.7 60.0 16.7 60.0 44.0
Hotels and Restaurants 0.0 63.6 60.0 54.5 63.6 50.0 75.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.5 34.4 51.9 69.0 41.4
Renting and Business Activities 100.0 60.0 60.0 20.0 66.7 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 67.7 53.2 78.1 56.7
Community and Social Services 0.0 60.0 0.0 66.7 50.0 87.5 75.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.9 48.4 42.1 62.1 70.4
Industrial Sector 55.6 12.5 17.2 24.1 18.8 15.6 0.0 25.0 5.4 14.0 41.0 42.4 40.5 10.3 -6.7 17.0 31.3 16.7 20.7 23.0 8.3
Construction Sector 50.0 0.0 -33.3 -100.0 0.0 60.0 -100.0 0.0 -37.5 -21.1 7.1 44.4 6.3 0.0 -20.0 40.9 18.6 -9.8 15.4 27.9 13.2
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 41.7 -6.3 7.1 8.3 44.4 42.9 14.3 6.7 7.3 40.0 30.8 40.6 8.1 -24.2 54.1 30.3 25.3 6.9 30.0 9.0
Services Sector -15.4 18.3 18.2 19.1 20.0 57.1 -33.3 0.0 -35.3 -12.6 31.1 44.3 45.9 13.2 34.6 21.6 29.2 24.6 25.2 5.2 30.6
Volume of Business Activity Index 21.2 27.5 21.8 14.1 18.5 44.1 40.5 10 20.3 16.0 33.0 35.0 33.2 5.4 23.6 21.6 22.1 19.3 14.6 21.0 19.2
Volume of Total Order Book Index 27.1 23.2 22.8 15.2 16.9 44.1 28.6 7.5 10.7 9.5 12.4 7.4 16.1 4.4 0.5 8.7 24.3 19.3 12.8 22.1 14.6
Credit Access Index 2.4 5.8 3.3 1.1 10.8 32.3 0.0 -22.5 -10.7 -1.5 -4.1 26.6 33.2 -3.2 24.1 14.1 0.7 5.2 -10.7 12.3 5.6
Financial Condition Index 15.3 20.3 12.0 16.3 16.9 32.3 2.4 22.5 -8.4 8.0 33.0 41.2 41.7 2.7 12.5 26.6 28.4 18.3 18.2 18.8 17.8
Average Capacity Utilization 24.7 15.9 28.3 23.9 27.7 36.6 23.8 10 17.8 46.5 69.5 61.7 60.5 22.4 37.2 46.9 30.4 24.2 24.6 18.4 23.7
Volume of Business Activity Index 69.4 63.8 60.9 65.2 58.5 69.9 85.7 92.5 88.1 52.5 64.4 54.6 60.5 50.8 61.4 63.9 68.5 64.5 75.3 80.6 62.4
Employment Outlook Index 36.5 31.9 34.8 34.8 30.8 61.2 52.4 20.5 45.3 59.5 64.5 57 45.8 41.0 50.8 66.4 52.6 35.9 51.1 51.1 35.5
Industrial Sector 81.5 69.6 69.0 69.0 87.5 90.6 86.4 95.0 45.9 36.0 79.5 12.1 10.8 48.7 13.3 57.7 53.1 33.3 65.5 60.7 26.7
Construction Sector 75.0 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 36.8 57.1 33.3 50.0 46.7 60.0 72.7 58.1 26.8 53.8 62.8 10.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade 60.7 75.0 75.0 85.7 76.9 94.4 85.7 100.0 33.3 46.3 8.6 38.5 31.3 40.5 45.5 40.5 78.9 65.3 47.2 65.0 7.7
Services Sector of which: 68.4 66.7 73.7 81.0 92.3 100.0 100.0 66.7 76.5 3.9 20.0 54.5 0.8 13.2 -1.9 18.8 47.2 38.6 42.3 47.8 35.1
Financial Intermediation 100.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4 38.5 87.5 62.5 37.5 50.0 52.9 70.4 71.4 40.0 55.6 60.0 36.0
Hotels and Restaurants 0.0 72.7 90.0 81.8 75.0 100.0 100.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.9 31.3 33.3 31.0 17.2
Renting and Business Activities 83.3 80.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.3 54.8 53.2 50.0 26.7
Community and Social Services 0.0 80.0 83.3 83.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 29.0 15.8 51.7 63.0
Table E.1.1.2: Business Expectations Survey - North East
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
High Interest Rate 56.5 47.9 28.8 37.9 74.1 66.1 61.9 91.3 57.2 28.5 46.9 46.0 33.7 38.0 36.0 52.1 44.6 33.3 37.9 37.2 48.5
Unclear Economic Laws -50.0 40.7 39.1 46.7 63.8 53.2 60.7 72.5 50.1 28.3 22.5 12.4 37.4 32.3 33.3 27.7 42.4 33.8 34.4 30.3 41.5
Lack of Equipment 33.5 13.0 9.2 14.3 52.3 46.2 40.5 57.5 45.9 15.0 16.8 1.6 20.0 15.1 7.3 13.7 20.7 16.3 23.6 9.3 15.4
Insufficient Demand 21.8 15.2 2.7 -3.9 46.9 44.1 20.2 65.0 34.6 15.5 14.9 0.5 8.4 23.8 3.3 19.3 17.0 15.2 19.1 12.6 26.0
Access to Credit 25.9 7.3 24.5 21.8 53.8 45.7 52.4 16.3 49.4 42.8 46.4 41.4 41.8 41.1 45.1 32.0 25.9 24.9 14.2 24.2 23.0
Financial Problems -37.6 44.3 38.6 39.4 66.2 74.7 81.0 91.3 69.6 27.5 41.8 44.0 44.2 45.2 44.0 36.0 47.1 45.4 46.1 50.2 56.7
Competition -50.0 27.5 40.8 27.8 42.3 42.5 36.9 -11.3 39.3 5.5 -7.7 -29.5 7.3 12.9 26.9 23.5 33.5 38.3 21.1 43.9 31.5
Labor Problems 1.2 -8.8 -6.0 -7.2 31.5 23.7 25.0 -25.0 8.3 -1.5 -11.1 -23.9 -9.1 0.6 -2.0 7.2 0.7 1.4 0.3 -6.7 -9.3
Lack of Materials Input 30.0 11.7 1.6 5.1. 36.2 28.0 29.8 46.3 32.8 93.0 17.3 7.0 14.2 24.7 37.3 32.0 12.4 10.6 13.3 1.2 2.8
Unfavourable Political Climate 20.6 16.0 19.6 28.3 43.1 16.7 36.9 5.0 18.4 16.3 11.7 1.4 21.0 34.8 35.9 36.0 34.6 42.1 39.9 32.4 50.1
Unfavourable Economic Climate 49.4 33.4 29.3 33.9 59.2 57.5 67.9 56.3 50.1 58.5 53.1 38.9 44.1 60.1 61.6 58.9 46.3 46.9 48.9 32.2 47.2
Insufficient Power Supply 85.9 79.8 54.9 75.0 75.4 75.2 97.6 95.0 80.4 75.3 53.5 46.6 55.7 72.8 53.5 50.2 81.4 85.4 76.1 77.2 80.5
N/$ Exchange Rate 1.2 -11.6 -50.0 -48.9 9.2 12.9 14.3 -67.5 16.7 13.0 11.9 43.9 46.2 30.0 5.5 19.1 -18.7 -17.3 -27.5 2.0 -7.3
Inflation Rate 50.6 30.5 4.3 13.0 21.5 28.0 23.8 -7.5 0 43.5 -2.6 -8.9 3.5 35.5 30.7 23.3 32.9 12.0 16.0 48.5 30.3
Borrowing Rate 31.8 31.9 4.3 10.9 35.4 30.1 4.8 -22.5 1.2 -17.0 -16.0 -7.5 6.7 27.3 24.2 7.9 35.3 49.3 22.9 33.1 10.4
N/$ Exchange Rate 18.8 23.2 10.9 3.3 47.7 49.4 -7.1 62.5 9.5 -13.0 7.7 25.7 -1.3 19.7 -9.5 23.6 9.7 21.3 40.0 19.7 10.8
Inflation Rate 31.8 33.4 32.6 37.0 27.7 72.1 73.8 40 23.8 42.8 5.1 9.3 27.4 24.1 49.7 8.3 21.1 41.0 10.7 27.8 23.7
Borrowing Rate 30.6 18.9 17.4 13.0 41.5 63.4 26.2 45 4.8 13.0 19.6 25.2 -13.0 -4.3 6.0 -5.8 19.0 30.0 20.3 13.8 9.8
Importer 11.8 14.5 12.0 17.4 12.3 19.8 16.7 5 11.9 44.5 49.0 51.4 49.3 42.1 46.7 39.8 8.0 8.6 3.6 18.1 6.6
Exporter 3.5 2.9 10.9 10.9 4.6 9.7 0.0 0 2.4 10.5 10.8 7.5 5.8 6.6 3.0 5.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
Both Importer and Exporter 10.6 13.0 8.7 15.2 16.9 12.5 2.4 2.5 11.9 6.5 1.0 3.3 2.7 2.7 1.0 7.1 4.8 4.8 6.8 7.7 3.5
Neither Importer nor exporter 74.1 69.6 68.5 56.5 66.2 58.0 81.0 92.5 73.8 38.5 39.2 37.9 42.2 48.6 49.2 47.7 85.8 85.9 89.6 74.2 88.9
Small (<50) 62.4 65.2 68.5 72.8 70.8 90.0 88.1 90 89.3 63.0 68.0 68.2 63.2 65.0 63.8 66.4 84.4 80.3 82.5 80.6 83.3
Medium (50 and <200) 30.6 27.5 25.0 20.7 24.6 7.5 9.5 10 9.5 24.5 17.0 23.4 25.1 21.9 20.6 15.8 12.1 14.8 12.1 14.4 11.5
Large (200 and Up) 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.5 4.6 2.5 2.4 0.0 1.2 12.5 14.9 8.4 11.7 13.1 15.6 17.8 3.5 4.8 5.4 5.0 5.2
No Response 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 85 71 92 92 65 93 42 40 84 200 194 200 160 183 199 241 289 290 280 299 287
Industrial Sector 27 24 29 29 16 32 22 20 37 50 39 52 37 39 30 53 64 60 58 61 60.0
Construction Sector 4 6 3 2 1 5 1 2 8 19 14 18 16 15 15 22 43 41 39 43 38.0
Wholesale and Retail Trade 28 12 16 14 13 18 7 7 15 41 35 26 32 37 33 37 76 75 72 80 78.0
Services Sector of which: 19 29 44 47 35 38 12 11 24 90 106 104 75 92 121 129 106 114 111 115 111
Financial Intermediation 1 2 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 21 20 18 25 25.0
Hotels and Restaurants 0 11 10 11 12 6 4 5 7 0 2 16 16 16 17 27 31 32 27 29 29.0
Renting and Business Activities 6 5 5 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 31 47 32 30.0
Community and Social Services 0 5 6 6 6 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 31 19 29 27
Industrial Sector 8.2 -4.2 5.4 1.1 1.5 7.5 9.5 -7.5 16.7 11.0 12.4 15.4 9.4 8.7 3.0 9.1 1.0 2.1 -0.7 4.7 3.1
Construction Sector 2.4 2.8 0.0 -1.1 0.0 2.2 -2.4 0.0 3.6 -1.5 1.0 4.5 2.5 2.2 -1.5 3.7 0.7 1.7 -1.4 6.0 1.7
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 8.5 -1.1 -2.2 -3.1 10.8 -4.8 5.0 -2.4 7.5 10.3 6.5 10.0 7.7 1.0 4.6 1.0 5.9 -2.1 11.7 3.1
Services Sector -11.8 -6.8 12.6 2.4 -4.1 19.5 -19.0 -27.5 -3.4 19.3 34.0 31.9 33.8 21.2 29.2 24.7 2.8 6.2 -5.0 7.4 3.8
Industrial Sector 17.6 4.2 5.4 7.6 4.6 5.4 0.0 12.5 2.4 3.5 8.2 11.0 9.4 2.2 -1.0 3.7 6.9 3.4 4.3 4.7 1.7
Construction Sector 2.4 0.0 -1.1 -2.2 0.0 3.2 -2.4 0.0 -3.6 -2.0 0.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 -1.5 3.7 2.8 -1.4 2.1 4.0 1.7
Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0 7.0 -1.1 1.1 1.7 8.6 7.1 2.5 1.2 1.5 7.2 4.0 8.1 1.6 -4.0 8.3 8.0 6.6 1.8 8.0 2.4
Services Sector -3.4 7.5 8.7 9.8 10.8 23.3 -9.5 0.0 -10.1 -5.7 17.0 23.0 21.5 6.6 21.0 11.5 10.7 9.7 10.0 2.0 11.8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20.7 7.0 21.6 7.5 18.8 12.8 8.8 10.4 33.6 21.2 -5.2 -13.7 -21.4 -2.3 -11.0 22.7 28.3 40.7
50.9 49.2 61.3 48.0 60.0 63.6 59.6 66.8 57.2 74.8 61.6 47.2 46.8 53.7 53.7 70.3 65.7 75.7
17.2 -16.7 12.5 -2.6 14.0 18.0 0.0 18.0 39.2 32.0 4.0 -30.0 -30.0 -23.3 -25.0 21.7 5.0 10.0
45.5 17.8 6.5 22.6 -10.8 0.0 16.2 8.1 28.1 25.6 -10.5 0.0 -33.3 2.2 4.3 13.0 37.8 52.2
30.0 0.0 7.8 -3.9 30.8 12.1 24.2 4.5 21.1 9.2 3.1 -15.4 -24.4 -5.1 -17.9 15.4 42.3 37.2
6.8 19.8 41.6 12.8 24.5 15.5 0.0 11.3 39.4 21.9 -13.4 -9.6 -10.3 8.5 -5.2 31.9 27.4 54.3
47.8 34.6 50.0 52.6 29.2 21.7 0.0 4.5 62.0 9.1 -34.8 -23.1 7.4 28.6 11.1 44.4 35.7 63.0
-3.4 -10.3 21.1 -10.5 -4.2 29.2 4.2 20.0 21.1 37.5 -33.3 -6.9 -13.8 -10.3 -10.3 24.1 48.3 48.3
-23.3 53.3 40.0 -10.0 40.0 12.0 -28.0 -12.0 15.0 24.0 28.0 -13.3 -16.7 13.3 -20.0 33.3 16.7 46.7
14.3 3.2 55.0 20.0 32.0 0.0 24.0 32.0 25.0 16.0 -16.0 3.3 -16.7 3.3 0.0 26.7 10.0 60.0
37.9 33.3 57.5 35.9 50.0 56.0 50.0 68.0 54.9 78.0 64.0 45.0 33.3 25.0 38.3 66.7 43.3 61.7
54.5 48.9 58.1 51.6 45.9 51.4 51.4 51.4 65.6 64.1 63.2 47.8 55.6 68.9 63.0 69.6 62.2 82.6
57.5 47.4 54.9 41.2 60.0 59.1 71.2 63.6 68.4 76.9 64.6 46.2 50.0 60.3 50.0 65.4 73.1 76.9
51.3 60.7 68.8 56.4 70.4 76.0 59.8 74.2 51.4 76.0 57.7 48.7 48.3 58.1 63.1 83.0 74.1 79.3
47.8 69.2 66.7 68.4 83.3 65.2 60.9 81.8 18.0 77.3 56.5 53.8 66.7 71.4 70.4 92.6 78.6 81.5
65.5 52.0 68.4 42.1 54.2 82.6 66.7 76.0 84.2 75.0 37.5 31.0 48.3 48.3 75.0 100.0 92.9 72.4
40.0 70.0 55.0 55.0 76.0 76.0 44.0 56.0 75.0 80.0 76.0 53.3 23.3 53.3 46.7 80.0 70.0 73.3
51.4 51.6 85.0 60.0 68.0 80.0 68.0 84.0 80.0 72.0 60.0 56.7 56.7 60.0 63.3 66.7 56.7 90.0
17.2 18.3 30.0 20.5 22.0 34.0 6.0 24.0 21.6 22.0 22.0 -16.7 -13.3 -15.0 -6.7 23.3 3.3 1.7
52.3 40.0 29.0 38.7 27.0 27.0 21.6 29.7 31.3 12.8 -15.8 -4.3 4.4 0.0 6.5 21.7 28.9 23.9
36.3 21.8 47.1 29.4 26.2 43.9 37.9 28.8 10.5 20.0 18.5 -3.8 -19.2 9.0 2.6 17.9 39.7 24.4
15.4 25.0 61.0 25.6 31.6 53.6 22.7 21.6 20.4 17.7 5.2 0.0 -6.9 6.8 3.4 31.0 25.6 25.9
27.0 28.4 33.7 20.5 30.8 32.8 29.6 16.4 9.2 16.4 -6.4 -13.0 -27.4 -5.0 -10.3 8.7 9.7 25.1
32.1 24.7 42.2 14.0 32.4 31.6 28.8 21.6 14.1 22.8 4.0 -6.7 -16.1 -2.7 -7.7 15.7 24.3 24.3
18.1 2.7 13.1 3.0 4.4 20.0 9.6 1.6 3.6 9.6 -0.4 -6.0 -14.7 -14.0 -9.0 7.0 2.3 -13.7
26.7 25.1 46.2 27.5 27.6 43.2 23.2 25.2 19.3 18.4 8.8 -5.0 -9.7 2.0 1.7 24.7 25.3 20.3
33.5 28.4 41.7 25.0 28.8 33.6 22.4 22.4 28.9 24.4 4.4 -7.4 -19.1 5.7 -10.7 13.0 19.0 23.7
64.6 65.6 64.8 73.0 63.6 67.2 68.8 78.0 72.7 76.4 71.2 56.9 52.2 60.7 56.3 66.7 66.3 75.7
41.8 51.2 50.3 43.0 42.4 47.2 54.4 59.2 52.6 49.2 48.4 38.1 34.4 35.3 45.7 51.3 47.0 42.0
77.6 75.0 75.0 71.8 62.0 86.0 62.0 72.0 66.0 72.0 88.0 78.3 66.7 55.0 65.0 66.7 61.7 58.1
77.3 80.0 71.0 87.1 70.3 83.8 59.5 83.8 90.3 74.4 84.2 89.1 62.2 48.9 73.9 76.1 66.7 67.6
75.0 83.3 76.5 78.4 75.4 80.3 72.7 80.3 80.7 72.3 83.1 73.1 73.1 61.5 80.8 73.1 67.9 68.4
63.2 75.9 84.4 69.2 73.5 79.4 68.0 77.3 64.6 71.9 70.1 69.6 65.5 48.7 65.5 73.3 71.8 57.0
65.2 76.9 72.2 63.2 75.0 73.9 60.9 72.7 62.5 54.5 56.5 53.8 59.3 46.4 63.0 74.1 50.0 40.0
72.4 65.5 84.2 73.7 66.7 83.3 70.8 72.0 68.4 75.0 75.0 69.0 69.0 44.8 58.6 65.5 69.0 60.0
50.0 80.0 90.0 80.0 76.0 92.0 76.0 80.0 65.0 80.0 88.0 76.7 76.7 53.3 73.3 86.7 90.0 50.0
65.7 80.6 90.0 60.0 76.0 68.0 64.0 84.0 65.0 76.0 60.0 76.7 56.7 50.0 66.7 66.7 76.7 71.4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
22.8 43.3 45.7 37.5 39.2 43.6 32.0 43.0 32.3 41.8 42.2 33.9 43.3 49.0 43.2 46.3 40.5 45.7
28.0 34.6 41.5 38.0 32.2 40.6 27.2 39.0 36.5 35.0 31.4 37.1 34.1 41.3 27.5 35.2 29.5 38.3
18.6 34.9 30.7 24.0 26.0 27.0 20.0 21.8 26.9 17.2 24.8 31.1 30.8 25.2 33.3 38.0 23.0 19.7
16.7 27.9 25.9 23.8 22.8 31.4 16.0 27.8 26.3 22.2 28.4 35.6 34.8 30.3 30.8 37.8 29.7 35.8
23.6 23.2 21.9 25.3 19.0 16.8 15.8 33.2 31.9 27.4 31.4 38.6 31.4 21.8 30.0 35.0 25.2 26.5
35.5 51.8 46.5 52.0 43.0 48.0 39.6 51.6 46.6 44.4 55.6 58.5 58.4 53.2 55.5 61.5 52.5 54.7
25.2 34.6 39.2 40.3 36.8 32.4 23.2 31.6 33.7 47.6 44.4 45.0 33.6 47.2 41.5 46.7 40.7 35.0
2.7 19.2 19.1 8.8 4.4 15.6 -2.8 4.4 9.2 -2.2 7.2 25.1 5.5 21.5 4.2 18.2 6.0 -4.7
13.1 29.6 26.1 14.5 23.4 29.8 12.6 17.6 24.7 7.0 25.6 34.6 23.9 28.3 24.8 31.7 18.8 17.7
29.8 43.1 44.2 48.5 46.4 46.0 37.6 36.4 42.8 28.6 26.2 42.5 32.8 33.3 31.0 35.5 22.7 29.0
33.8 45.0 50.5 45.8 38.8 47.8 41.0 47.4 51.8 40.0 40.4 50.0 51.5 45.0 44.3 41.3 36.8 37.5
55.8 68.2 70.6 76.0 67.2 71.0 77.2 83.0 68.9 61.2 48.0 74.7 71.2 51.5 56.0 59.3 50.8 46.0
18.8 -0.7 10.6 4.5 -9.6 14.8 -48.8 -9.2 19.7 14.4 -17.2 -16.4 -31.4 -19.0 -17.0 41.3 26.0 32.7
28.4 9.0 15.6 15.0 7.6 0.0 37.6 31.2 0.8 18.0 21.6 22.4 32.8 15.7 27.3 3.0 -2.7 -5.0
10.4 19.1 18.6 4.5 8.0 -6.0 15.2 -0.4 10.8 6.8 14.0 6.4 23.7 4.0 17.0 21.3 10.3 9.7
16.0 8.7 16.1 17.0 5.6 18.4 -28.0 18.0 33.3 28.8 2.4 12.0 2.3 21.0 4.7 40.3 32.0 57.3
11.7 13.0 13.6 1.0 8.4 8.0 22.4 8.8 -13.3 6.8 11.6 -5.7 0.3 -14.7 9.3 -15.3 -13.3 -19.0
6.0 19.1 13.1 2.5 14.4 16.8 14.0 0.4 -1.6 1.6 12.4 0.3 5.0 20.3 3.7 -0.7 3.0 -1.7
16.1 9.7 21.6 11.0 10.0 5.2 3.6 10.4 23.2 9.6 9.2 11.4 14.0 9.0 8.0 10.7 11.3 10.3
1.7 1.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.2 0.0 1.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.0
11.7 6.0 11.6 5.5 4.0 5.6 1.6 2.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 6.0 2.3 6.3 4.0 3.3 6.0 3.0
70.6 82.9 65.3 83.5 86.0 89.2 94.8 85.6 67.6 84.8 86.4 81.3 81.3 83.3 87.3 85.3 82.3 85.7
80.3 78.3 75.4 73.0 70.8 82.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 83.2 80.6 83.6 83.7 83.0 83.3 82.0 84.7
15.4 15.4 14.1 21.5 22.0 13.2 12.0 14.0 15.6 18.4 15.6 17.4 14.4 13.0 15.0 14.0 15.0 13.0
4.3 6.4 10.6 5.5 7.2 4.8 6.0 6.0 6.4 3.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 3.3 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
299 299 199 199 250 250 250 250 249 250 250 299.0 299.0 300.0 300 300 300 300
58 60 40 39 50 50 50 50 51 50 50 60.0 60.0 60.0 60 60 60 60
44 45 31 31 37 37 37 37 32 39 38 46.0 45.0 45.0 46 46 45 46
80 78 51 51 65 66 66 66 57 65 65 78.0 78.0 78.0 78 78 78 78
117 116 77 78 98 97 97 97 109 96 97 115.0 116.0 117.0 116 116 117 116
23 26 18 19 24 23 23 22 50 22 23 26.0 27.0 28.0 27 27 28 27
29 29 19 19 24 24 24 25 19 24 24 29.0 29.0 29.0 29 29 29 29
30 30 20 20 25 25 25 25 20 25 25 30.0 30.0 30.0 30 30 30 30
35 31 20 20 25 25 25 25 20 25 25 30.0 30.0 30.0 30 30 30 30
3.3 -3.3 2.5 -0.5 2.8 3.6 0.0 3.6 8.0 6.4 0.8 -6.0 -6.0 -4.7 -5.0 4.3 1.0 2.0
6.7 2.7 1.0 3.5 -1.6 0.0 2.4 1.2 3.6 4.0 -1.6 0.0 -5.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 5.7 8.0
8.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 8.0 3.2 6.4 1.2 4.8 2.4 0.8 -4.0 -6.4 -1.3 -4.7 4.0 11.0 9.7
2.7 7.7 16.1 5.0 9.6 6.0 0.0 4.4 17.3 8.4 -5.2 -3.7 -4.0 3.3 -2.0 12.3 10.7 21.0
3.3 3.7 6.0 4.0 4.4 6.8 1.2 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.4 -3.3 -2.7 -3.0 -1.3 4.7 0.7 0.3
7.7 6.0 4.5 6.0 4.0 4.0 3.2 4.4 4.0 2.0 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 0.0 1.0 3.3 4.3 3.7
9.7 5.7 12.1 7.5 6.8 11.6 10.0 7.6 2.4 5.2 4.8 -1.0 -5.0 2.3 0.7 4.7 10.3 6.3
6.0 9.7 23.6 10.1 12.4 20.8 8.8 8.4 8.9 6.8 2.0 0.0 -2.7 2.7 1.3 12.0 10.0 10.0
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Table E.1.1.3: Business Expectations Survey - North West
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Current Quarter
North West 25.0 38.6 -10.9 -8.8 -2.2 -14.3 -6.3 17.2 24.1 36.5 34.9 37.0 35.2 27.9 31.7 2.4 5.1 6.0 15.5 19.2 6.3 22.3
Next Quarter
North West 76.2 62.7 18.9 32.5 42.9 43.6 52.8 61.7 62.0 70.7 67.7 68.3 62.9 54.7 60.4 34.4 49.2 42.5 54.6 58.0 41.7 64.5
Industrial Sector 33.3 36.5 4.3 11.1 -16.7 -13.0 -7.3 12.0 21.1 34.1 23.3 33.9 35.6 7.1 28.0 0.9 -18.7 -9.3 11.1 23.0 4.2 14.0
Construction Sector -66.7 41.2 50.0 50.0 60.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 42.9 71.4 62.5 76.9 58.3 55.6 20.0 28.6 16.3 12.1 14.3 0.0 7.5 14.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade 20.0 26.1 -19.4 -30.6 -23.8 -16.1 -25.7 20.8 22.7 42.5 47.5 33.8 37.9 44.7 31.9 8.5 8.8 13.1 16.1 26.6 7.4 27.0
Services Sector of which: 29.4 38.5 -39.1 0.0 22.2 16.7 -18.8 -20.0 15.8 33.3 72.2 27.0 34.2 27.8 56.7 7.3 17.9 11.4 19.3 16.8 6.8 28.6
Financial Intermediation 0.0 0.0 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 80.0 16.7 60.0 50.0 55.6 -66.7 -27.3 38.1 -11.8 -5.3 15.0 -6.7 56.0
Hotels and Restaurants 33.3 52.2 0.0 33.3 30.8 -15.0 40.0 42.9 31.8 53.1 43.6 41.7 28.6 34.1 47.1 -30.6 19.4 9.4 29.4 3.1 -2.9 19.4
Renting and Business Activities 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -37.5 0.0 26.3 3.6 25.0 45.5 27.3 46.7 17.6 0.0 7.4 10.7 22.6 23.3 10.7 6.9
Community and Social Services 100.0 66.7 33.3 25.0 0.0 -40.0 0.0 66.7 42.9 30.0 0.0 40.0 -25.0 -33.3 0.0 25.0 9.1 28.6 20.0 25.8 30.8 37.0
Industrial Sector 77.8 65.4 21.7 22.2 38.9 45.3 50.9 57.3 57.9 64.8 64.7 59.6 58.9 47.1 73.0 33.0 31.9 38.1 63.3 59.0 43.8 67.7
Construction Sector 100.0 82.4 100.0 100.0 60.0 0.0 100.0 -33.3 71.4 100.0 87.5 92.3 91.7 77.8 33.3 57.1 67.4 36.4 47.6 51.2 35.0 61.7
Wholesale and Retail Trade 70.0 60.9 13.9 36.1 38.1 48.4 40.0 54.2 65.9 82.5 74.6 67.6 59.1 60.5 58.3 42.3 63.7 48.5 54.0 61.7 42.6 58.4
Services Sector of which: 70.6 61.5 -8.7 18.8 66.7 50.0 56.3 40.0 47.4 77.8 61.1 78.4 63.2 47.2 53.3 14.6 44.3 42.9 73.6 56.6 41.5 67.9
Financial Intermediation 75.0 -100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 33.3 40.0 87.5 88.9 0.0 36.4 66.7 17.6 42.1 55.0 43.3 76.0
Hotels and Restaurants 91.7 52.2 100.0 100.0 61.5 60.0 70.0 100.0 86.4 75.0 74.4 83.3 71.4 51.2 61.8 36.1 72.2 50.0 47.1 43.8 26.5 74.2
Renting and Business Activities 62.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 37.5 100.0 57.9 60.7 70.0 63.6 36.4 73.3 47.1 6.3 25.9 46.4 74.2 56.7 42.9 58.6
Community and Social Services 100.0 66.7 41.7 25.0 0.0 40.0 50.0 100.0 57.1 50.0 44.4 60.0 75.0 33.3 42.9 45.8 0.0 46.4 32.0 71.0 57.7 63.0
Industrial Sector 5.6 -3.8 -4.3 33.3 27.8 0.0 -9.1 10.7 15.8 35.2 22.4 21.1 36.7 3.5 27.0 14.7 3.3 -3.1 6.7 11.0 10.4 10.8
Construction Sector 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 0.0 40.0 33.3 14.3 42.9 25.0 46.2 33.3 55.6 26.7 47.6 25.6 18.2 23.8 18.6 17.5 25.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade 30.0 17.4 -5.6 -25.0 14.3 19.4 18.6 20.8 9.1 37.5 33.9 22.5 19.7 28.9 45.8 32.4 7.7 13.1 13.8 18.1 8.5 27.0
Services Sector 16.3 28.8 0.0 -8.3 4.5 0.0 6.9 0.0 5.3 33.3 61.1 27.0 28.9 11.1 33.3 14.6 28.3 18.1 19.3 24.8 5.9 33.0
Volume of Business Activity Index 76.2 31.0 13.9 3.8 13.2 -9.3 -4.2 19.4 28.2 38.8 38.9 35.9 32.2 35.0 28.4 14.3 17.2 15.5 20.4 26.0 10.6 24.1
Volume of Total Order Book Index 33.3 31.7 9.9 16.3 15.4 -5.0 2.8 19.5 22.6 33.8 37.8 34.5 30.6 25.0 29.8 14.6 16.6 12.5 22.5 23.5 8.3 24.1
Credit Access Index -15.5 4.2 -12.9 -13.8 13.2 -2.8 -5.6 5.2 3.1 6.3 2.9 2.4 7.2 5.0 8.3 7.6 7.0 5.4 4.3 7.1 -9.2 -7.3
Financial Condition Index 17.9 11.8 -3.0 -6.3 18.7 -2.1 -12.0 14.3 15.9 37.9 27.7 25.5 27.3 18.5 31.7 19.8 15.4 10.4 14.9 18.3 9.1 24.3
Average Capacity Utilization 35.7 31.0 13.9 13.8 22.0 4.3 3.5 26.9 21 33.7 32.8 35.2 35.6 26.8 25.9 15.5 20.9 16.1 22.0 24.3 5.2 23.2
Volume of Business Activity Index 75.0 77.3 47.5 56.3 56.0 62.9 74.6 68.5 71.3 82.9 80.4 71.5 68.6 68.2 63.6 60.2 59.3 55.1 64.0 69.1 50.3 73.0
Employment Outlook Index 39.3 49.7 32.7 23.8 34.1 34.3 44.4 42.9 33.8 56.8 56.0 49.8 50.8 43.3 51.4 38.3 35.3 36.2 41.5 41.7 27.3 52.5
Industrial Sector 64.7 76.9 47.8 44.4 77.8 66.7 76.4 74.7 23.7 45.1 50.0 48.6 66.7 29.4 46.0 35.8 27.5 29.9 28.9 22.0 52.1 65.6
Construction Sector 100.0 70.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 33.3 100.0 71.4 100.0 100.0 83.3 11.1 73.3 71.4 62.8 75.8 23.8 48.8 62.5 89.4
Services Sector of which: 70.6 73.1 69.6 62.5 66.7 66.7 93.8 66.7 47.4 100.0 100.0 78.4 68.4 72.2 100.0 65.9 47.2 54.3 57.8 50.4 63.6 74.1
Financial Intermediation 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 60.0 66.7 60.0 100.0 33.3 33.3 63.6 71.4 17.6 78.9 50.0 60.0 68.0
Hotels and Restaurants 75.0 60.9 66.7 66.7 61.5 65.0 80.0 71.4 36.4 56.3 28.2 55.6 42.9 22.0 35.3 11.1 11.1 62.5 64.7 18.8 64.7 67.7
Renting and Business Activities 62.5 66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 75.0 66.7 26.3 92.9 60.0 81.8 81.8 46.7 88.2 75.0 55.6 42.9 48.4 66.7 60.7 82.8
Community and Social Services 0.0 0.0 83.3 100.0 0.0 70.0 50.0 66.7 28.6 80.0 100.0 60.0 50.0 77.8 100.0 58.3 72.7 78.6 44.0 67.7 69.2 77.8
Table E.1.1.3: Business Expectations Survey - North West
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
High Interest Rate 43.5 50.1 53.5 57.8 48.8 58.6 58.8 63.2 60.0 61.7 55.6 57.6 52.7 38.6 44.1 49.7 45.5 48.5 52.1 49.7 44.9 47.2
Unclear Economic Laws 28.6 29.8 26.7 25.0 40.0 42.5 45.8 44.9 41.3 40.0 37.8 38.1 35.8 30.2 35.2 40.2 37.7 44.5 36.7 38.4 44.7 38.0
Lack of Equipment 25.6 7.7 -2.0 -0.6 24.7 29.6 24.6 33.2 18.3 29.7 29.0 24.8 22.2 15.7 29.2 24.5 21.8 7.5 24.3 21.3 11.8 27.2
Insufficient Demand 0.6 -4.8 8.5 14.4 24.1 30.7 26.4 29.8 36.9 31.1 29.4 22.4 13.1 19.4 31.9 30.5 19.7 23.5 25.5 23.2 32.3 26.4
Access to Credit 29.2 19.4 9.4 18.1 28.8 42.1 37.0 39.3 44.9 39.5 41.1 33.4 32.4 29.0 37.9 25.6 18.0 29.4 35.6 32.1 33.8 21.7
Financial Problems 47.0 39.0 39.5 39.4 43.5 54.6 52.8 52.9 56.2 54.5 50.2 46.9 40.6 40.4 39.0 42.0 35.6 48.3 42.9 46.9 50.8 55.0
Competition 38.7 18.6 32.0 28.8 34.1 23.2 23.9 46.6 47.7 48.1 39.3 39.9 40.2 35.9 35.1 31.6 30.5 18.9 31.1 36.7 25.6 39.9
Labor Problems 38.7 -7.7 -19.0 -17.5 14.7 13.2 12.0 21.5 19.0 6.3 9.1 11.2 -3.8 8.4 12.4 9.2 30.5 -6.0 4.3 7.0 3.3 11.1
Lack of Materials Input 17.9 1.1 -8.5 -6.3 22.9 19.6 14.4 25.4 19.8 16.5 23.1 20.2 15.6 15.0 17.3 15.7 6.8 16.3 7.1 8.9 13.6 21.4
Unfavourable Political Climate -14.9 13.0 21.3 25.6 35.9 51.1 34.9 34.6 25.6 40.2 36.3 32.4 36.6 33.6 25.9 46.3 34.2 48.0 30.7 30.2 46.3 42.4
Unfavourable Economic Climate 38.1 33.5 44.1 45.6 48.2 52.5 49.3 44.6 50.6 47.7 44.4 43.8 29.6 47.4 32.7 52.9 40.7 52.8 31.6 34.0 50.1 42.8
Insufficient Power Supply 58.9 76.2 67.8 71.3 72.4 81.4 78.9 78.1 60.3 80.1 81.2 69.9 77.5 82.1 69.8 64.0 78.5 69.3 61.8 63.5 72.6 69.5
N/$ Exchange Rate 22.6 -20.0 -6.9 -15.0 -4.4 -19.3 -14.1 -5.1 -11.8 -14.4 -18.2 -8.7 -4.6 3.6 16.9 -13.7 -4.2 -10.7 -9.1 -6.0 -15.0 0.0
Inflation Rate 41.7 24.2 25.7 11.3 7.7 30.7 33.8 27.4 29.2 29.7 14.1 17.8 7.9 28.5 22.7 24.0 17.9 10.1 15.5 22.0 24.1 30.8
Borrowing Rate 15.5 0.7 -2.0 -15.0 -26.7 -5.7 -18.3 -1.1 8.7 2.2 11.3 14.6 19.7 14.0 25.9 35.9 23.3 25.1 22.9 16.3 18.9 20.8
N/$ Exchange Rate 28.6 31.7 12.0 11.3 3.3 18.6 33.1 20.6 29.2 20.7 5.1 24.8 19.3 6.1 33.9 14.6 17.3 14.6 16.4 12.6 -6.8 15.2
Inflation Rate 8.3 13.8 48.0 11.3 -8.8 7.1 8.5 -27.4 5.6 -10.8 8.7 4.9 17.4 23.2 13.3 29.8 15.4 13.1 1.5 8.3 23.9 9.1
Borrowing Rate 7.1 1.4 3.0 -6.3 -31.7 -22.1 -12.7 -30.8 -11.2 -6.3 0.8 0.7 5.3 14.6 20.5 24.0 8.7 9.5 0.3 11.2 16.1 14.3
Importer 14.3 15.9 36.0 37.5 12.9 14.3 12.7 18.3 17.9 20.3 20.0 19.9 15.2 13.2 26.3 19.5 13.0 12.0 14.6 11.7 10.5 9.1
Exporter 0.0 2.1 3.0 6.3 1.2 4.3 4.2 5.1 7.2 2.7 5.5 3.5 2.7 1.1 1.8 4.9 4.2 2.4 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.1
Both Importer and Exporter 20.2 12.4 18.0 15.0 8.2 19.3 14.1 24 14.9 20.3 12.0 9.4 9.1 10.4 10.4 7.6 11.2 5.4 7.3 15.1 15.1 7.6
Neither Importer nor exporter 65.5 69.7 43.0 41.3 77.6 62.1 69.0 52.6 60 56.8 62.5 67.2 73.1 75.4 61.5 68.1 71.6 80.2 76.8 71.7 72.1 81.2
Small (<50) 61.9 64.8 72.0 72.5 67.1 67.1 68.3 60 72.3 66.2 66.9 76.3 78.8 72.5 77.7 75.1 74.0 82.0 75.3 73.4 79.0 76.2
Medium (50 and <200) 25.0 26.2 19.0 20.0 25.9 20.0 19.0 21.7 14.9 22.5 20.7 14.6 15.2 17.9 13.7 17.0 17.5 12.6 17.4 18.9 13.2 13.5
Large (200 and Up) 11.9 9.0 9.0 7.5 7.1 12.9 12.7 18.3 12.3 11.3 12.4 9.1 6.1 9.6 8.6 7.9 8.5 5.4 7.0 7.7 7.5 10.3
No Response 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 84 145 100 80 85 140 142 175 195 222 275 287 264 280 278 329 331 334 328 350 348 341
Industrial Sector 18 52 23 18 36 54 55 75 76 91 116 109 90 85 100 109 91 97 90 100 96 93
Construction Sector 3 17 2 2 5 7 5 3 7 7 8 13 12 9 15 21 43 33 42 43 40 47
Wholesale and Retail Trade 20 23 36 36 21 31 35 48 44 40 59 71 66 76 72 71 91 99 87 94 94 89
Services Sector of which: 43 53 39 24 21 48 47 49 68 84 92 94 96 110 91 128 106 105 109 113 118 112
Financial Intermediation 4 26 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 6 5 8 9 3 11 21 17 19 20 30 25
Hotels and Restaurants 12 1 3 3 13 20 20 21 22 32 39 36 35 41 34 36 36 32 34 32 34 31
Renting and Business Activities 8 23 0 0 0 10 8 6 19 28 20 11 11 15 17 16 27 28 31 30 28 29
Community and Social Services 2 3 12 4 0 10 2 6 7 10 9 5 4 9 7 24 22 28 25 31.0 26.0 27.0
Industrial Sector 48.3 26.7 22.9 -2.5 -2.6 -25.0 -2.6 5.1 8.2 14.0 9.8 12.9 12.1 2.1 10.1 0.3 -5.1 -2.7 3.0 6.6 1.1 3.8
Construction Sector 3.1 27.3 100.0 50.0 -40.0 -55.6 -14.3 0.0 1.5 2.3 1.8 3.5 2.7 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.9 2.1
Services Sector 0.0 40.0 66.7 56.3 -12.5 7.1 25.0 -5.6 5.5 12.6 24.2 8.9 12.4 10.9 18.5 2.8 5.7 3.6 6.4 5.4 2.3 9.4
Industrial Sector 48.3 26.7 22.9 -2.5 -2.6 -25.0 -2.6 4.6 6.2 14.4 9.5 8.0 12.5 1.1 9.7 4.9 0.9 -0.9 1.8 3.1 2.9 2.9
Construction Sector 3.1 27.3 100.0 50.0 -40.0 -55.6 -14.3 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 3.0 3.3 1.8 3.0 2.3 2.0 3.5
Services Sector 0.0 40.0 66.7 56.3 -12.5 7.1 25.0 0.0 1.8 12.6 20.4 8.9 10.5 4.4 10.9 5.7 9.1 5.7 6.4 8.0 2.0 10.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
19.5 25.6 17.9 10.6 12.7 -0.9 14.5 20.4 15.4 -4.6 -5.4 -33.7 -30.6 -14.3 -6.3 20.6 44.6
58.0 51.3 49.7 54.4 58.7 42.4 62.3 59.9 50.1 59.1 55.1 35.4 32.6 41.1 53.0 59.1 75.7
19.8 15.5 6.0 3.1 21.3 -4.3 14.9 7.9 10.8 -10.1 0.0 -50.9 -35.3 -30.9 -11.1 15.8 37.4
7.0 11.1 10.8 25.0 -16.7 -10.4 -15.9 6.5 -14.6 -4.2 -18.8 -26.8 -42.6 0.0 11.4 29.8 28.6
5.4 19.3 14.8 4.5 7.5 -5.6 19.3 16.1 30.7 -10.6 -9.3 -38.4 -21.3 -20.9 -19.6 18.5 51.6
35.3 43.3 32.0 16.2 20.5 9.6 21.8 40.4 17.9 4.2 -1.8 -16.5 -28.6 -1.7 1.8 22.4 50.9
52.0 52.0 32.0 37.5 38.5 23.1 18.5 57.1 32.0 12.0 3.8 22.7 11.1 20.7 42.3 37.5 62.5
34.3 48.6 21.2 9.7 3.2 -19.4 12.5 20.0 14.7 -12.1 -21.9 -22.9 -28.1 -31.3 -18.2 18.8 52.9
29.0 32.1 30.3 3.7 25.0 10.3 16.7 53.8 3.2 13.8 14.3 -33.3 -60.0 -7.1 -30.8 20.0 48.1
28.0 40.6 45.2 17.2 17.9 28.6 40.0 33.3 24.2 6.5 0.0 -22.6 -39.3 14.8 18.5 16.7 41.9
60.4 46.6 50.0 59.4 67.0 34.4 52.1 53.5 38.7 42.4 46.6 14.8 20.6 39.2 34.3 62.1 69.7
34.9 47.2 37.8 63.6 35.7 39.6 54.5 63.8 31.7 60.4 60.4 51.2 44.7 51.0 63.6 44.7 59.5
58.1 54.5 35.8 49.4 52.7 46.1 61.4 52.9 58.0 62.4 66.3 39.5 30.3 34.9 58.7 64.1 79.6
68.8 54.2 62.3 50.5 65.0 47.4 73.9 69.3 59.3 70.3 52.2 46.1 40.2 45.4 65.4 66.0 83.6
48.0 40.0 56.0 54.2 76.9 53.8 81.5 75.0 72.0 76.0 61.5 81.8 40.7 69.0 88.5 70.8 100.0
100.0 62.9 63.6 54.8 61.3 38.7 81.3 63.3 47.1 66.7 43.8 45.7 65.6 44.0 60.0 89.5 76.5
71.0 50.0 69.7 44.4 71.9 37.9 66.7 88.5 51.6 62.1 71.4 33.3 8.0 29.6 38.5 43.3 77.8
52.0 59.4 58.1 48.3 50.0 60.7 66.7 53.3 69.7 77.4 33.3 32.3 39.3 37.0 74.1 70.0 83.9
22.9 24.3 5.0 6.3 3.2 4.3 -3.2 5.9 -4.3 -4.0 1.0 -26.9 -19.6 -14.4 -9.1 -2.1 20.2
-4.7 8.3 13.5 11.4 -23.8 -16.7 4.5 0.0 -4.9 -14.6 -10.4 -12.2 -27.7 -15.7 6.8 12.8 7.1
14.0 25.0 7.4 -1.1 7.5 -1.1 -3.4 14.9 8.0 0.0 0.0 -25.6 -12.4 -8.1 0.0 -5.4 29.0
29.3 31.7 28.7 15.3 29.9 14.0 17.6 35.1 13.8 17.8 8.8 1.7 -11.7 -7.0 8.0 10.3 22.4
22.1 26.8 21.5 0.3 18.5 5.2 18.3 18.9 13.0 -2.6 -0.6 -26.6 -23.4 -11.7 -8.3 13.4 30.5
23.3 28.8 18.8 4.4 16.5 5.5 17.7 18.6 13.9 0.6 -4.3 -25.7 -22.0 -12.6 -6.1 6.6 21.4
7.2 15.0 14.7 1.5 9.0 0.0 11.6 12.0 5.5 8.0 -4.3 -9.7 -18.6 -3.7 -11.5 3.1 -12.9
19.3 25.4 15.0 7.9 10.1 3.2 4.9 16.9 5.2 2.9 1.7 -15.4 -16.3 -10.6 0.9 3.1 21.7
17.0 28.0 22.6 4.7 19.1 5.2 15.9 14.9 16.5 6.6 2.3 -17.1 -14.0 -7.7 -0.3 7.7 20.6
62.9 63.1 59.7 57.1 64.5 44.2 60.9 59.6 55.4 63.7 55.1 50.9 47.7 41.8 60.6 52.0 71.7
36.8 39.8 29.7 30.9 39.0 24.1 38.8 33.5 32.2 37.7 22.9 20.6 17.1 22.1 23.9 27.1 38.9
57.3 59.2 60.0 44.8 50.0 48.4 50.5 50.0 43.0 49.0 40.8 37.0 39.2 47.4 39.4 45.7 0.0
65.1 61.1 54.1 70.5 52.4 47.9 56.8 65.2 51.2 54.2 45.8 63.4 42.6 49.0 43.2 51.1 12.5
54.8 47.7 71.6 55.1 47.3 38.6 46.6 57.5 62.5 57.6 47.7 40.7 45.5 45.3 37.4 56.5 23.9
60.9 70.8 59.8 55.5 63.2 55.3 48.7 57.1 73.2 68.6 54.9 49.1 48.2 53.0 50.4 50.9 63.4
40.0 56.0 60.0 70.8 69.2 57.7 55.6 57.1 68.0 76.0 61.5 63.6 61.5 58.6 57.7 54.2 50.0
68.6 68.6 42.4 45.2 61.3 41.9 50.0 58.6 67.6 66.7 50.0 48.6 43.8 50.0 42.4 46.9 81.8
67.7 71.4 69.7 53.8 53.1 65.5 26.7 60.0 80.6 72.4 57.1 42.3 44.0 57.1 42.3 46.7 37.5
62.5 84.4 67.7 55.2 71.4 57.1 63.3 53.3 75.8 61.3 51.9 45.2 44.4 46.2 60.7 56.7 75.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
52.9 51.2 51.6 36.0 44.7 50.7 39.0 43.0 48.7 44.0 42.0 44.9 57.7 56.0 51.0 51.6 52.3
33.5 37.8 43.1 28.5 35.8 39.4 33.8 33.5 35.6 31.9 40.3 35.9 49.0 42.8 38.4 32.6 30.4
18.0 22.9 29.6 14.4 23.1 19.9 15.5 20.8 22.8 26.1 20.4 22.1 38.3 34.8 24.9 25.7 23.6
28.2 32.3 35.3 32.2 34.4 38.5 33.8 18.9 23.5 37.0 38.9 38.7 50.6 40.8 35.1 32.7 36.1
31.0 28.0 35.3 32.5 32.8 37.4 32.9 27.2 31.8 30.6 32.4 39.9 50.7 36.2 35.6 39.1 33.4
43.5 42.9 50.1 49.6 48.3 49.3 44.5 38.4 42.4 46.7 57.0 57.3 56.9 53.3 52.9 45.3 45.7
42.4 38.8 39.4 35.6 34.8 42.9 26.8 30.9 28.5 34.1 40.3 38.3 41.9 37.2 35.3 39.0 36.9
5.6 9.7 13.1 3.4 3.6 -3.6 2.9 7.9 9.7 -3.3 4.3 -7.3 14.9 14.9 -1.7 5.1 -3.6
6.0 11.1 16.5 5.0 14.3 11.9 14.8 11.5 12.4 19.6 20.3 16.0 34.9 27.5 20.5 16.4 11.7
35.1 37.3 39.6 33.2 34.5 45.8 32.5 23.9 23.8 24.4 38.9 27.3 38.1 33.5 29.5 30.0 19.3
40.9 40.6 42.8 42.6 42.9 51.7 42.3 32.8 28.9 39.4 54.1 40.4 54.6 44.3 41.7 35.0 31.3
64.2 63.4 65.9 62.9 66.3 68.3 69.6 49.6 45.8 50.7 72.3 63.1 56.9 66.2 56.6 50.7 53.7
-3.4 3.7 9.4 10.0 5.5 -29.4 -2.3 2.0 -0.6 -40.0 -8.3 -42.6 -26.3 -17.5 15.2 1.4 24.6
26.4 15.9 22.6 10.0 15.3 12.8 22.0 4.6 10.7 33.7 18.0 32.6 24.9 21.8 4.9 2.0 -10.0
15.2 11.2 15.0 1.2 12.7 1.5 3.2 1.1 5.8 13.1 5.4 22.3 12.9 11.7 10.3 4.0 5.1
10.3 8.6 10.0 17.6 12.1 -9.0 12.8 20.6 9.9 3.4 12.3 -19.1 0.0 -9.2 22.7 23.7 44.9
11.5 7.2 21.2 3.8 15.6 5.2 -17.7 -8.3 -6.4 -5.7 -17.1 3.1 -1.4 3.7 -25.9 -23.4 -22.9
17.2 11.8 14.7 10.0 17.6 5.2 -15.9 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -11.4 3.1 0.9 -1.7 -6.6 -10.6 4.0
12.9 11.8 11.5 14.5 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.8 14.3 13.4 10.3 17.4 16.9 12.9 15.4 16.3
1.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.0 5.8 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.1 2.9 1.1 2.9 3.4 2.3 1.7 2.3
13.8 13.5 9.7 12.1 11.8 13.1 11.9 11.5 13.9 12.0 10.0 12.0 11.1 12.0 11.5 17.1 11.4
71.8 71.8 76.5 71.0 74.6 68.6 72.8 73.1 69.6 72.6 73.7 76.6 68.6 67.7 73.3 65.7 70.0
76.4 73.8 75.3 78.8 74.3 74.4 73.7 74.1 72.5 72.6 74.9 75.4 70.9 64.9 75.2 77.7 74.5
15.2 16.7 16.5 12.6 17.1 17.2 18.4 19.0 19.1 20.9 17.1 16.6 21.4 24.6 18.4 15.1 18.6
8.3 9.5 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.4 7.9 6.9 8.4 6.6 8.0 8.0 7.7 10.6 6.3 7.1 6.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
348 347 340 340 346 344 345 349 345 350 350 350 350 350 348 350 350
96 103 100 96 94 93 94 101 93 99 103 108 102 97 99 95 99
43 36 37 44 42 48 44 47 41 48 48 41 47 51 44 47 42
93 88 81 89 93 89 88 87 88 85 86 86 89 86 92 92 93
116 120 122 111 117 114 119 114 123 118 113 115 112 116 113 116 116
25 25 25 24 26 26 27 28 25 25 26 22 27 29 26 24 24
35 35 33 31 31 31 32 30 34 33 32 35 32 32 33 32 34
31 28 33 27 32 29 30 26 31 29 28 27 25 28 26 30 27
25.0 32.0 31.0 29.0 28.0 28 30 30 33 31 27 31 28 27 28 30 31.0
5.5 4.6 1.8 0.9 5.8 -1.2 4.1 2.3 2.9 -2.9 0.0 -15.7 -10.3 -8.6 -3.2 4.3 10.6
0.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 0.9 -1.7 -0.6 -2.6 -3.1 -5.7 0.0 1.4 4.0 3.4
1.4 4.9 3.5 1.2 2.0 -1.5 4.9 4.0 7.8 -2.6 -2.3 -9.4 -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 4.9 13.7
11.8 15.0 11.5 5.3 6.9 3.2 7.5 13.2 6.4 1.4 -0.6 -5.4 -9.1 -0.6 0.6 7.4 16.9
6.3 7.2 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.2 -0.9 1.7 -1.2 -1.1 0.3 -8.3 -5.7 -4.0 -2.6 -0.6 5.7
-0.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.6 0.0 -0.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.4 -3.7 -2.3 0.9 1.7 0.9
3.7 6.3 1.8 -0.3 2.0 -0.3 -0.9 3.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 -6.3 -3.1 -2.0 0.0 -1.4 7.7
9.8 11.0 10.3 5.0 10.1 4.7 6.1 11.5 4.9 6.0 2.9 0.6 -3.7 -2.3 2.6 3.4 7.4
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Table E.1.1.4: Business Expectations Survey - South East
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Current Quarter
South East -21.8 -8.7 -10.3 -6.3 -25.8 -17.6 -15.9 8.4 37.1 -12.2 34.0 35.1 7.9 9.4 -1.6 -0.4 23.8 21.8 0.8 36.1 3.6 14.8 17.7
Next Quarter
South East 77.5 53.6 19.8 25.4 59.7 40.7 25.0 50.7 70.4 32.0 61.9 61.6 42.6 51.6 29.8 54.1 48.7 54.0 58.4 53.5 28.5 48.5 54.0
Industrial Sector -77.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 -43.2 -18.9 -17.8 22.7 46.2 -18.4 18.4 30.2 -12.5 -14.3 17.6 3.2 13.6 12.9 -14.7 41.9 14.5 -1.8 17.5
Construction Sector -100.0 20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -50.0 -25.0 0.0 -28.6 -80.0 16.7 14.3 55.6 -11.1 -12.5 -27.3 6.3 0.0 4.5 0.0 34.0 2.9 25.0 32.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade -43.8 0.0 -14.8 -7.7 -8.3 -19.5 -10.8 -23.1 53.8 -16.7 31.4 41.7 4.3 7.0 -27.0 -11.1 36.5 30.8 10.9 18.5 0.0 14.0 16.1
Services Sector of which: 5.3 19.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 -5.0 -9.7 13.8 35.7 -7.1 20.7 22.2 13.9 25.8 11.5 10.5 30.0 33.3 6.7 48.0 -1.0 20.9 13.3
Financial Intermediation 0.0 80.0 -20.0 -10.0 -20.0 -37.5 -27.3 72.7 87.5 60.0 100.0 61.1 57.1 33.3 33.3 0.0 64.3 75.0 38.5 70.6 42.9 76.9 22.2
Hotels and Restaurants 10.7 33.3 -5.3 -10.5 -35.3 -23.8 -10.0 0.0 24.0 -31.6 50.0 22.2 14.3 17.9 0.0 -4.7 22.2 28.6 15.8 26.3 0.0 7.7 10.5
Renting and Business Activities 33.3 -75.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -50.0 0.0 -25.0 60.0 16.7 66.7 100.0 75.0 75.0 -28.6 -66.7 31.3 5.9 -28.6 63.6 -5.7 38.7 23.8
Community and Social Services 27.3 0.0 -15.4 -33.3 -18.2 0.0 -60.0 -20.0 33.3 -9.1 57.1 22.2 36.4 30.0 -21.4 9.1 20.8 26.7 13.6 29.4 -22.7 -23.8 8.2
Wholesale and Retail Trade 37.5 43.8 0.0 11.5 66.7 19.5 -8.1 3.8 84.6 12.5 57.1 47.2 12.8 25.6 -2.7 62.2 55.6 58.5 65.6 40.0 30.4 45.6 41.1
Renting and Business Activities 83.3 100.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0 50.0 60.0 100.0 100.0 16.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 -33.3 75.0 35.3 61.9 68.2 8.6 58.1 38.1
Community and Social Services 90.9 100.0 0.0 -16.7 27.3 62.5 30.0 80.0 88.9 45.5 100.0 77.8 90.9 100.0 -7.1 27.3 54.2 53.3 68.2 76.5 31.8 38.1 44.9
Industrial Sector -16.7 10.0 -4.8 0.0 -2.3 -21.6 -28.9 -18.2 7.7 -28.6 -10.2 17.0 -22.9 -30.6 -7.8 4.8 -5.1 0.0 -13.2 1.6 -21.0 1.8 -3.5
Construction Sector -75.0 20.0 -20.0 0.0 -12.5 -12.5 -20.0 -42.9 0.0 16.7 14.3 44.4 -11.1 12.5 -9.1 12.5 -18.8 -4.5 -11.6 4.3 8.8 20.0 10.8
Wholesale and Retail Trade -37.5 -15.6 -18.5 -7.7 0.0 -26.8 -40.5 -34.6 23.1 -39.6 11.4 19.4 -10.6 -14.0 -29.7 -4.4 23.8 12.3 -1.6 3.1 5.4 0.0 5.4
Services Sector 0.0 2.4 11.8 10.3 6.7 -22.5 -12.9 -34.5 21.4 -28.6 -3.4 -3.7 -33.3 -45.2 11.5 8.8 22.2 29.0 5.3 14.7 -6.2 3.3 12.2
Volume of Business Activity Index -12.7 -4.7 -1.6 -5.6 9.7 -14.2 -20.1 -9.1 33.3 -13.9 21.5 34.7 -9.0 -11.0 -3.7 2.1 29.5 23.8 8.0 25.7 2.8 18.1 21.4
Volume of Total Order Book Index -5.6 -4.7 -11.9 -9.5 -8.1 -19.6 -22.0 -12.5 29.5 -19.2 18.5 19.8 -28.4 -15.4 -1.1 8.9 29.1 20.9 8.4 14.4 -0.8 18.9 14.9
Credit Access Index -21.1 -22.1 -28.6 -20.6 -8.9 -20.6 -38.4 -48.6 -12.4 -34.3 -6.0 -3.8 -29.0 -16.5 -30.8 -6.5 -11.9 1.6 -13.4 -6.0 -10.8 7.0 -0.8
Financial Condition Index -9.9 -2.7 0.0 4.0 1.6 -18.6 -21.3 -23.6 26.7 -25.0 8.3 20.4 -14.7 -15.9 -9.6 0.4 10.6 10.4 -4.4 6.4 -5.2 5.0 6.9
Average Capacity Utilization 0.0 0.0 -0.8 3.2 8.9 -1.5 -17.1 -5.5 34.3 -10.5 16.0 30.8 -3.6 -8.3 2.7 7.7 22.2 21.4 5.2 16.8 8.8 13.2 15.7
Employment Outlook Index 54.9 50.3 19.8 21.4 64.5 26.5 25.8 15.2 59 5.8 22.0 26.9 20.0 27.5 15.5 19.5 25.0 27.0 28.8 23.2 13.2 36.2 33.5
Industrial Sector 55.6 67.5 66.7 65.0 20.5 46.6 20.0 40.9 38.5 34.7 34.7 -69.8 -54.2 -55.1 -29.4 -6.5 -39.0 5.7 -52.9 -9.7 61.3 36.4 70.2
Construction Sector 83.3 80.0 40.0 50.0 12.5 50.0 20.0 42.9 -60.0 100.0 -71.4 -55.6 11.1 -25.0 -27.3 25.0 -25.0 4.5 -11.6 -10.6 44.1 37.5 69.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade 37.5 46.9 14.8 15.4 41.7 24.4 10.8 19.2 -23.1 -29.2 -42.9 -77.8 -66.0 -58.1 -45.9 -2.2 -36.5 -29.2 -3.1 1.5 62.5 29.8 76.8
Services Sector of which: 36.8 85.7 37.5 44.0 57.1 47.5 38.7 37.9 57.1 28.6 10.3 -63.0 -61.1 -67.7 -46.2 -5.3 -22.2 8.8 17.3 12.0 50.5 34.1 68.4
Financial Intermediation 0.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 62.5 54.5 63.6 75.0 20.0 40.0 44.4 42.9 55.6 33.3 33.3 28.6 33.3 -7.7 41.2 50.0 23.1 44.4
Hotels and Restaurants 25.0 58.3 42.1 47.4 29.4 52.4 35.0 50.0 28.0 -47.4 -28.6 -48.1 -28.6 -42.9 -15.2 7.0 -38.9 14.3 36.8 -5.3 53.8 38.5 68.4
Renting and Business Activities 16.7 75.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 0.0 60.0 33.3 33.3 100.0 50.0 50.0 71.4 33.3 -12.5 5.9 23.8 -9.1 42.9 35.5 66.7
Community and Social Services 0.0 0.0 23.1 16.7 9.1 25.0 30.0 0.0 -33.3 -45.5 -14.3 -55.6 -9.1 -20.0 -42.9 -27.3 -33.3 -20.0 9.1 29.4 59.1 33.3 73.5
Table E.1.1.4: Business Expectations Survey - South East
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lack of Equipment 31.7 -17.2 -13.1 10.3 19.0 12.5 11.6 19.8 20.0 12.0 -1.3 3.8 25.8 20.1 5.0 6.9 -6.8 25.8 25.6 1.7 1.1 6.4 9.1
Insufficient Demand 45.8 7.7 -23.0 7.5 -64.1 19.9 11.6 17.1 27.2 29.4 -92.6 4.2 22.6 18.2 2.2 12.2 5.75 25.7 24.6 -0.4 2.3 2.0 12.7
Access to Credit 37.3 24.8 18.3 -65.1 -46.8 40.2 54.0 36.1 28.1 54.6 47.6 34.7 42.1 39.7 42.3 38.0 40.0 28.7 42.8 40.0 45.0 52.6 53.4
Competition 51.8 9.8 10.7 26.6 45.2 29.2 30.8 34.4 48.5 40.5 34.0 24.3 30.2 30.8 29.8 44.5 31.45 37.6 43.0 8.6 21.9 33.4 24.2
Labor Problems -13.4 -38.6 -34.1 -7.5 4.0 -7.4 -15.5 -4.5 -0.5 -0.6 -11.0 -9.6 -10.6 -12.1 -13.3 -7.5 -25.5 5.7 0.0 -24.3 -20.2 -11.1 -3.0
Lack of Materials Input 25.0 -26.2 -20.2 1.6 18.1 9.6 6.1 14.2 18.6 20.9 -10.6 -2.2 13.5 17.4 3.4 -0.3 -15.75 12.0 24.4 -5.1 -10.4 9.2 7.5
Unfavourable Political Climate 39.4 6.7 19.4 -64.3 28.2 42.2 32.3 32.4 40.0 50.7 13.1 5.6 34.0 26.7 19.5 21.8 16.2 28.5 44.4 6.7 5.1 27.3 29.2
Unfavourable Economic Climate 54.6 36.5 38.5 49.6 -36.7 53.9 38.1 41.3 54.3 57.5 36.3 63.5 51.6 39.6 38.7 38.4 26.55 44.7 56.0 38.4 41.2 48.3 54.6
Insufficient Power Supply 82.7 73.8 63.9 69.8 -7.7 74.8 82.0 85.1 40.1 84.6 61.0 18.5 87.4 77.3 74.7 79.9 78.8 65.2 80.0 72.9 63.1 72.5 70.0
N/$ Exchange Rate 39.4 36.9 19.0 15.1 54.0 -18.1 9.8 18.8 27.7 12.2 20.8 21.5 7.9 16.5 3.7 13.4 -4.1 9.3 -2.4 -3.6 -8.4 -11.5 -11.7
Inflation Rate -14.1 -5.3 15.1 11.9 51.6 17.6 5.5 12.5 5.7 -24.4 6.0 1.6 -0.5 3.3 -1.6 50.4 27.5 9.7 46.4 9.7 38.9 33.8 34.7
Borrowing Rate -33.1 -18.8 -34.1 -34.9 -8.9 -12.7 -33.5 -27.1 6.6 -36.6 -35.2 2.2 -18.9 -13.2 -0.5 13.0 22.6 -1.6 22.4 -9.7 -4.8 4.9 -2.0
N/$ Exchange Rate 50.0 13.4 -29.4 -27.0 -25.8 13.2 15.2 0.7 56.2 -20.9 -23.8 11.5 -24.8 -18.7 -0.6 14.2 -5.3 16.9 19.6 -7.2 -7.6 -7.0 2.8
Inflation Rate -52.1 -52.4 -21.4 -29.4 -79.8 -24.0 -20.7 -36.1 -18.1 23.8 3.6 -22.6 -18.4 -2.8 -14.3 14.2 7.4 7.6 16.8 -4.8 26.5 30.5 27.4
Borrowing Rate -51.4 -26.2 -32.5 -34.9 -17.7 -24.5 -47.6 -29.9 6.7 -30.3 -1.2 -6.1 -5.8 -3.9 -18.6 5.7 8.6 6.9 -1.6 -13.7 -10.8 -2.1 -0.8
Importer 33.1 20.8 31.7 29.4 8.1 28.4 31.1 20.8 7.6 17.4 18.5 18.1 27.4 20.9 22.3 19.9 21.3 18.1 12 22.9 11.2 16.0 15.3
Exporter 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.9 0.0 6.9 1 1.7 7.1 7.1 6.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.2 3.2 3.7 4.0
Both Importer and Exporter 3.5 11.4 4.8 5.6 4.0 10.3 5.5 0 6.7 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 11.2 7.3 7.4 15.7 3.2 5.2 8.8 7.8 4.8
Small (<50) 71.1 74.5 71.4 76.2 79.0 76.0 82.3 71.5 76.2 76.2 72.6 76.9 81.6 79.7 69.1 69.1 82.8 82.3 81.6 85.9 77.5 71.0 79.4
Medium (50 and <200) 20.4 17.4 17.5 12.7 11.3 14.2 14.0 19.4 12.4 16.3 17.3 12.1 12.6 16.5 21.8 24.4 12.3 10.9 10.8 9.6 16.5 21.2 14.1
Large (200 and Up) 7.7 8.1 11.1 9.5 9.7 9.8 3.7 9.0 11.4 7.6 10.1 11.0 5.8 3.8 9 6.5 4.9 6.9 7.6 4.4 6.0 7.9 6.5
No Response 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 142 122 126 126 124 204 164 144 105 172 168 182 190 182 188 246 244 248 250 249 249 243 248
Industrial Sector -19.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 -15.3 -6.9 -4.9 6.9 11.4 -5.2 5.4 8.8 -3.2 -3.8 4.8 0.8 3.3 3.6 -4.0 10.4 3.6 -0.4 4.0
Construction Sector -4.2 0.8 -1.6 -1.6 -3.2 -1.0 0.0 -1.4 -3.8 0.6 0.6 2.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 6.4 0.4 4.1 4.8
Wholesale and Retail Trade -4.9 0.0 -3.2 -1.6 -0.8 -3.9 -2.4 -4.2 6.7 -4.7 6.5 8.2 1.1 1.6 -5.3 -2.0 9.4 8.1 2.8 4.8 0.0 3.3 3.6
Services Sector 3.1 7.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 -2.0 -4.5 6.4 20.7 -2.9 9.5 10.3 6.3 11.6 5.5 5.3 11.1 9.3 2.0 14.5 -0.4 7.8 5.2
Industrial Sector -4.2 3.3 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 -7.8 -7.9 -5.6 1.9 -8.1 -3.0 4.9 -5.8 -8.2 -2.1 1.2 -1.2 0.0 -3.6 0.4 -5.2 0.4 -0.8
Construction Sector -3.2 0.8 -1.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -2.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.8 -2.5 -0.8 -2.0 0.8 1.2 3.3 1.6
Wholesale and Retail Trade -4.2 -4.1 -4.0 -1.6 0.0 -5.4 -9.1 -6.3 2.9 -11.0 2.4 3.8 -2.6 -3.3 -5.9 -0.8 6.1 3.2 -0.4 0.8 1.2 0.0 1.2
Services Sector 0.0 0.9 6.4 5.6 3.2 -8.9 -6.1 -16.0 12.4 -11.5 -1.6 -1.7 -15.1 -20.3 5.5 4.4 8.2 8.1 1.6 4.4 -2.4 1.2 4.8
2014 2015 2016 2017
10.8 36.7 10.1 6.5 8.8 -1.2 -18.5 8.5 -17.4 -48.4 -52.2 -57.0 -45.2 -33.6 -28.4 -20.0
44.0 55.7 44.8 39.5 48.8 56.0 33.3 50.0 42.9 9.3 13.3 16.1 -7.2 -0.8 -3.0 24.9
2.7 35.6 10.1 18.6 10.8 -3.0 -7.4 19.7 -12.9 -57.8 -72.8 -61.7 -36.7 -26.5 -50.7 -23.7
30.8 37.8 5.3 -25.6 -12.8 -11.9 -29.7 -7.3 -14.6 -63.2 -66.0 -64.9 -75.0 -38.7 -34.3 -50.0
-1.6 21.7 -4.8 5.9 7.3 -4.4 -35.9 13.6 -18.5 -45.7 -25.8 -59.0 -38.6 -36.4 -22.9 -5.9
19.7 53.6 24.1 13.4 17.6 9.5 -8.8 1.5 -21.5 -35.5 -40.7 -49.5 -45.5 -37.0 -7.7 -16.9
7.7 44.4 40.0 18.2 63.6 0.0 -5.0 -7.7 -17.6 -43.8 -46.2 -53.3 -45.0 -17.6 48.5 36.4
28.6 25.0 4.0 -7.7 -4.5 4.2 5.0 0.0 -44.0 -52.4 -64.7 -45.5 -58.3 -40.9 -46.2 -13.0
17.6 64.7 27.8 36.4 16.0 13.3 -5.0 -11.8 -20.0 -13.0 -23.1 -62.5 -23.1 -44.4 -37.5 -52.0
20.0 61.3 34.6 13.0 18.2 20.0 -30.0 22.2 5.9 -37.5 -25.0 -44.7 -45.2 -41.7 -62.5 -36.8
33.3 61.0 40.6 33.9 44.6 47.0 30.9 52.1 25.8 -20.3 -18.5 11.7 -1.7 2.4 -4.0 20.3
64.1 51.4 57.9 20.5 20.5 47.6 27.0 26.8 43.9 2.6 14.9 -5.4 -37.5 -29.0 -25.7 0.0
36.1 50.7 37.1 35.3 60.0 54.4 25.0 43.9 58.5 18.6 45.2 14.8 -5.7 -7.3 2.1 37.3
51.5 62.3 48.1 60.5 57.1 70.3 45.0 67.6 43.0 28.9 22.0 28.6 -1.3 12.5 5.6 28.1
61.5 100.0 90.0 63.6 90.9 86.7 55.0 69.2 76.5 31.3 46.2 53.3 45.0 41.2 18.2 72.7
66.7 50.0 48.0 70.0 59.1 66.7 40.0 70.0 44.0 23.8 -5.9 22.7 -20.0 7.7 42.9 13.0
35.3 64.7 38.9 54.5 40.0 60.0 40.0 64.7 10.0 34.8 23.1 6.3 -15.4 16.7 -37.5 12.0
40.0 54.8 38.5 56.5 57.6 70.0 45.0 66.7 47.1 25.0 31.3 31.6 -16.1 -8.3 6.3 15.8
8.0 16.9 0.0 16.9 10.8 -15.2 -7.4 26.8 6.5 -37.5 -46.9 -30.0 -31.7 -31.3 -45.3 -25.4
12.8 0.0 7.9 -23.1 -15.4 -11.9 -21.6 -7.3 -4.9 -31.6 -38.3 -35.1 -75.0 -25.8 -37.1 -69.2
4.9 1.5 0.0 -10.3 12.7 1.5 -12.5 10.6 6.2 -41.4 -6.5 -31.1 -41.4 -20.0 -31.3 -23.5
22.7 21.7 20.3 -9.8 39.6 -2.7 6.3 14.7 -2.5 -10.5 -15.3 -33.0 -26.1 -25.9 -12.8 -16.9
22.0 33.2 6.9 7.7 16.8 3.2 -3.6 19.5 -5.7 -33.9 -30.9 -42.2 -37.2 -24.4 -29.2 -20.9
16.2 31.5 12.9 -3.6 18.8 5.2 -3.6 25.2 -2.0 -37.9 -30.9 -38.6 -36.8 -38.0 -22.9 -16.9
-2.5 17.9 2.8 -13.3 0.4 -14.0 -21.3 -7.7 -17.0 -47.2 -34.9 -44.6 -49.6 -19.6 -22.0 -47.6
12.0 11.1 7.7 -5.6 17.6 -6.4 -6.4 13.4 1.6 -29.4 -27.7 -32.1 -38.0 -26.4 -30.5 -26.7
12.4 31.5 17.3 1.6 15.6 0.0 1.2 7.7 3.2 -26.6 -16.9 -26.1 -28.4 -18.4 -9.3 -21.8
59.8 61.7 67.7 53.2 70.4 63.2 59.8 69.9 54.7 31.0 43.4 30.1 15.6 19.2 22.9 53.8
31.1 15.7 29.0 31.5 34.0 27.2 19.7 32.1 21.9 -4.0 15.7 6.8 -8.8 0.0 -1.3 13.3
48.0 25.4 37.7 32.2 40.0 48.5 20.6 52.1 33.9 39.1 39.5 53.3 48.3 35.4 35.2 -50.0
66.7 24.3 50.0 39.5 28.2 40.5 29.7 36.6 41.5 28.9 48.9 51.4 35.5 41.9 24.2 -50.0
72.1 28.4 54.8 45.6 41.8 67.6 34.4 51.5 56.9 58.6 46.8 47.5 55.7 45.5 38.3 9.1
50.0 17.4 60.8 54.9 47.3 62.2 43.8 50.0 55.1 60.5 40.7 58.2 51.7 42.5 41.8 -17.5
61.5 22.2 40.0 18.2 45.5 53.3 50.0 38.5 76.5 62.5 46.2 60.0 63.2 62.5 59.1 17.6
33.3 25.0 60.0 57.7 36.4 66.7 40.0 50.0 44.0 47.6 35.3 50.0 33.3 50.0 38.5 -42.9
58.8 5.9 77.8 54.5 56.0 53.3 45.0 47.1 40.0 69.6 53.8 50.0 46.2 27.8 25.0 -25.0
53.3 19.4 57.7 69.6 48.5 70.0 40.0 61.1 68.8 62.5 31.3 65.8 61.3 33.3 37.5 -25.0
2014 2015 2016 2017
60.8 -8.7 68.8 65.5 58.2 65.0 48.4 46.3 54.7 56.7 63.5 63.5 63.0 55.0 51.5 66.2
17.4 -23.9 34.9 11.3 23.8 18.4 18.5 26.4 32.2 40.1 42.6 43.8 47.8 35.6 16.3 49.8
3.9 -29.2 5.4 -7.1 -0.2 0.8 0.6 3.9 25.9 29.6 21.1 22.1 17.0 11.4 -13.3 25.1
0.4 -16.9 13.1 1.8 13.6 10.4 17.9 6.7 41.3 34.3 44.2 22.9 24.6 7.8 4.7 34.4
41.1 14.4 52.6 48.6 43.0 57.0 46.8 37.0 53.4 46.0 48.0 51.6 54.8 47.8 49.4 54.4
57.3 37.7 63.3 57.7 55.4 60.8 40.8 48.2 52.4 52.2 61.8 60.6 57.4 61.6 73.1 74.7
25.9 22.0 31.0 32.1 39.6 39.8 36.7 46.5 33.2 22.6 47.4 32.3 15.8 21.8 14.6 41.6
-12.4 -31.8 -10.3 -17.7 -7.0 -8.4 -11.0 -12.4 7.1 -7.1 -0.6 1.0 4.0 -5.4 -25.6 -11.8
3.1 -33.5 -0.8 -13.9 -5.6 -5.6 -2.0 0.4 20.2 29.8 28.5 23.3 15.6 15.8 17.4 32.7
16.0 -5.7 31.9 10.3 23.6 10.8 26.9 29.5 31.2 36.1 41.4 39.4 50.0 42.6 34.3 44.2
30.1 -9.3 40.7 18.3 29.0 32.0 34.9 40.4 43.9 56.0 57.2 60.4 63.2 61.4 53.6 58.9
67.4 63.1 81.3 77.2 79.8 82.4 74.5 59.6 66.0 66.7 82.3 75.3 76.0 80.2 79.2 85.8
-14.5 36.2 0.0 -0.8 -10.0 -5.2 -26.5 -3.3 -8.9 -9.7 -34.1 -39.4 -37.2 -35.6 -28.4 -33.8
35.7 33.2 17.3 6.0 16.0 16.4 21.3 2.8 4.0 12.9 11.2 30.9 24.4 35.2 16.1 30.7
-13.3 30.6 -4.0 8.5 8.8 -14.8 16.1 10.2 -0.8 -11.7 17.7 -6.0 9.6 -17.2 -27.5 -7.1
-12.0 44.7 9.7 4.8 5.2 -1.6 -22.5 13.8 1.2 -5.2 -9.2 -30.9 -14.8 -15.6 -3.4 15.6
22.0 24.3 14.9 8.1 8.8 -2.4 -9.2 -6.1 0.4 -4.0 -8.0 23.3 14.0 18.8 -14.4 4.0
-13.3 30.2 -5.6 -0.4 6.8 -31.2 -16.9 -17.1 -11.3 -14.1 -2.8 -2.4 4.0 -7.2 -11.0 -17.8
12.9 16.5 24.7 19.8 23.3 30.8 27.3 22.0 23.9 26.2 21.7 16.9 21.2 25.2 31.8 17.8
4.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.8 2.4 0.0 11.2 3.6 3.8 0.0
6.6 3.8 5.7 6.5 4.4 2.8 4.8 2.8 4.0 9.3 6.8 3.6 7.2 4.0 3.4 5.8
76.3 78.0 68.8 73.4 71.5 66.0 67.5 74.4 71.7 63.7 69.1 79.5 60.4 67.2 61.0 76.4
78.4 87.8 87.0 80.6 85.1 77.2 81.9 84.1 73.7 79.8 81.9 80.3 80.0 83.2 77.5 82.6
16.6 10.1 9.7 16.6 11.2 18.8 14.5 13.4 24.7 16.9 14.1 16.9 16.8 15.2 13.1 13.8
5.0 2.1 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.0 3.6 2.4 1.6 3.2 4.0 2.8 3.2 1.6 9.3 3.6
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
241 237 248 248 250 250 249 246 247 248 249 249 250 250 236 225
75 59 69 59 65 66 68 71 62 64 81 60 60 83 75 59
39 37 38 39 39 42 37 41 41 38 47 37 32 31 35 26
61 69 62 68 55 68 64 66 65 70 62 61 70 55 48 51
66 72 79 82 91 74 80 68 79 76 59 91 88 81 78 89
13 9 10 11 11 15 20 13 17 16 13 15 20 17 33 22
21 12 25 26 22 24 20 20 25 21 17 22 24 22 13 23
17 17 18 22 25 15 20 17 20 23 13 16 13 18 16 25
15 34 26 23 33 20 20 18 17 16 16 38 31 24 16 19
0.8 8.9 2.8 4.4 2.8 -0.8 -2.0 5.7 -3.2 -14.9 -23.7 -14.9 -8.8 -8.8 -16.1 -6.2
5.0 5.9 0.8 -4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -4.4 -1.2 -2.4 -9.7 -12.4 -9.6 -9.6 -4.8 -5.1 -5.8
-0.4 6.3 -1.2 1.6 1.6 -1.2 -9.2 3.7 -4.9 -12.9 -6.4 -14.5 -10.8 -8.0 -4.7 -1.3
5.4 16.3 7.7 4.4 6.4 2.8 -2.8 0.4 -6.9 -10.9 -9.6 -18.1 -16.0 -12.0 -2.5 -6.7
2.5 4.2 0.0 4.0 2.8 -4.0 -2.0 7.7 1.6 -9.7 -15.3 -7.2 -7.6 -10.4 -14.4 -6.7
2.1 0.0 1.2 -3.6 -2.4 -2.0 -3.2 -1.2 -0.8 -4.8 -7.2 -5.2 -9.6 -3.2 -5.5 -8.0
1.2 0.4 0.0 -2.8 2.8 0.4 -3.2 2.8 1.6 -11.7 -1.6 -7.6 -11.6 -4.4 -6.4 -5.3
6.2 6.6 6.5 -3.2 14.4 -0.8 2.0 4.1 -0.8 -3.2 -3.6 -12.0 -9.2 -8.4 -4.2 -6.7
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Table E.1.1.5: Business Expectations Survey - South South
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Current Quarter
South South 34.1 10.4 14.5 6.1 17 5.7 -6.4 20.7 -3.5 1.2 21.7 44.4 40 7.0 14.1 -3.6 21.5 23.6 21.0 19.8 28.4 29.5 22.3
Next Quarter
South South 85.4 61.2 45.2 40.3 -2.9 41.1 47.9 50.6 48.3 64.6 69.8 63.5 68.4 73.7 65.4 58.3 66.9 60.9 50.0 60.5 54.6 55.7 58.3
Industrial Sector 4.2 24.1 -23.1 0.0 62.5 17.1 -24.0 37.0 10.5 -11.6 40.0 45.2 45.9 -10.5 32.4 0.0 16.7 20.5 17.6 26.9 32.4 40.3 20.3
Construction Sector 0.0 36.4 -23.1 60.0 0.0 -16.7 -66.7 0.0 20.0 -100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 14.3 62.5 -25.0 17.1 44.7 2.5 16.3 25.0 26.5 28.6
Wholesale and Retail Trade 71.4 0.0 75.0 16.7 41.7 0.0 0.0 8.3 -29.2 -1.8 33.3 36.0 40.4 12.5 22.4 -8.3 4.1 17.3 36.1 19.2 15.5 23.6 26.0
Services Sector of which: 33.3 15.4 23.1 0.0 50.0 -1.9 4.5 6.7 33.3 17.9 10.3 52.3 35.9 -3.4 -4.7 -1.2 38.8 20.2 20.0 17.1 36.1 27.6 18.3
Financial Intermediation 20.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -50.0 20.0 20.0 80.0 42.9 13.3 -40.0 -44.4 52.4 25.0 58.8 46.7 55.6 41.7 39.1
Hotels and Restaurants 60.0 17.4 33.3 0.0 33.3 25.0 25.0 41.7 -23.5 14.3 13.3 46.2 50.0 61.5 25.0 13.0 22.6 3.8 -5.9 3.4 40.7 33.3 13.3
Renting and Business Activities 85.7 -25.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 100.0 7.1 28.6 14.3 -75.0 0.0 51.9 12.5 48.3 3.4 11.5 19.2 3.8
Community and Social Services 100.0 0.0 33.3 -100.0 0.0 20.0 -50.0 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 33.3 47.4 0.0 26.3 35.7 16.0 20.0
Construction Sector 66.7 90.9 75.0 100.0 0.0 50.0 -25.3 33.3 20.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 50.0 73.2 70.2 35.0 46.5 50.0 51.0 67.3
Wholesale and Retail Trade 100.0 50.0 69.2 58.3 -8.3 21.2 64.6 37.5 45.8 61.4 80.0 76.0 65.4 75.0 70.7 47.9 59.5 54.7 63.9 69.2 45.1 45.8 53.4
Community and Social Services 100.0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 30.0 12.0 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 54.2 84.2 26.7 50.0 71.4 48.0 60.0
Industrial Sector 33.3 36.7 0.0 18.2 -62.5 14.3 -8.0 29.6 5.3 4.7 6.7 35.5 32.4 -28.9 -5.4 -2.2 6.1 17.8 11.8 16.4 23.5 23.6 25.7
Construction Sector -46.7 45.5 -50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -66.7 33.3 40.0 -50.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 7.1 37.5 12.5 -2.4 17.0 -10.0 14.0 2.1 12.2 -10.2
Services Sector 18.0 25.5 -11.1 -30.0 6.7 23.1 10.4 -20.0 0.0 10.7 17.9 18.2 32.8 -3.4 16.3 2.4 17.5 25.8 7.3 19.8 25.0 15.2 21.2
Volume of Business Activity Index 34.1 29.3 30.6 6.1 -11.4 19.9 14.9 24.2 23.6 19.3 34.9 24.7 36.8 22.6 28.1 9.5 25.7 25.7 23.4 29.1 31.8 32.2 22.3
Volume of Total Order Book Index 30.5 32.8 24.2 11.0 -14.3 25.5 10.6 19.5 15.3 14.3 19.9 37.1 37.4 13.5 22.2 -2.2 25.0 27.9 17.6 24.4 29.5 30.6 26.3
Credit Access Index -9.8 3.5 -11.3 -7.3 -22.9 -3.5 -14.9 -3.4 -10.5 -31.7 -8.5 6.7 19.0 -17.2 -7.6 -10.9 1.1 2.1 -2.1 4.7 5.0 2.4 -1.7
Financial Condition Index 15.9 27.6 0.0 -3.7 -14.3 21.3 5.3 13.8 9.4 11.2 17.9 24.7 33.7 2.7 15.1 5.7 10.2 19.7 8.9 19.1 21.1 17.2 15.7
Average Capacity Utilization 23.2 32.8 14.5 9.8 -11.4 25.5 6.4 10.3 10.5 10.5 28.3 38.2 40.0 5.9 21.6 8.1 18.0 22.9 22.4 20.4 25.4 21.5 22.7
Volume of Business Activity Index 89.0 81 54.8 43.9 31.4 53.2 72.3 74.8 84.7 72.6 78.3 68.5 80.0 76.9 77.9 71.8 79.2 76.4 68.0 65.5 67.8 59.7 55.7
Employment Outlook Index 36.6 50 4.8 11.0 17.1 48.9 37.2 26.4 56.4 41.6 53.8 53.4 55.8 47.9 46.5 51.9 54.6 44.1 40.3 36.8 37.2 35.9 23.7
Industrial Sector 75.0 76.7 76.9 81.8 25.0 65.7 48.0 77.8 -5.3 53.5 33.3 9.7 62.2 36.8 29.7 43.5 15.2 20.5 17.6 19.4 64.7 62.5 67.6
Construction Sector 93.3 90.9 75.0 80.0 0.0 33.3 66.7 33.3 -20.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 -100.0 14.3 75.0 0.0 17.1 44.7 -15.0 16.3 52.1 49.0 42.9
Wholesale and Retail Trade 35.7 90.0 53.8 83.3 33.3 72.7 70.4 58.3 -12.5 64.9 66.7 76.0 46.2 50.0 51.7 27.1 24.3 22.7 33.3 13.2 67.6 73.6 57.5
Services Sector of which: 66.7 84.6 77.8 75.0 58.3 80.8 81.8 60.0 -5.6 71.4 69.2 34.1 56.3 48.3 53.5 22.4 18.4 37.1 12.7 -11.7 64.8 52.4 58.7
Financial Intermediation 20.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 60.0 60.0 71.4 46.7 80.0 33.3 33.3 20.0 52.9 -6.7 59.3 50.0 65.2
Hotels and Restaurants 50.0 91.7 66.7 50.0 0.0 75.0 75.0 91.7 -17.6 14.3 33.3 53.8 42.9 -23.1 30.0 21.7 -9.7 0.0 5.9 -31.0 66.7 56.7 60.0
Renting and Business Activities 100.0 87.5 0.0 75.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 100.0 85.7 85.7 100.0 0.0 85.7 48.1 75.0 17.2 -24.1 69.2 50.0 57.7
Community and Social Services 100.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 60.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 61.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 20.0 0.0 8.3 57.9 -6.7 10.5 64.3 52.0 52.0
Table E.1.1.5: Business Expectations Survey - South South
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lack of Equipment 11.0 28.0 19.4 10.4 -35.7 1.1 21.3 29.4 27.1 38.8 3.3 18.1 33.4 20.7 28.9 31.3 20.1 28.4 29.4 23.4 22.1 23.2 24.2
Insufficient Demand -0.6 -1.7 9.7 7.3 27.1 -0.4 14.4 4.0 25.9 44.5 5.2 21.3 33.9 31.0 37.8 37.5 22.3 31.7 36.1 22.5 27.3 31.9 22.2
Access to Credit 14.0 39.7 27.4 14.6 -3.0 8.5 46.3 39.7 27.1 61.2 42.9 28.1 40.6 44.6 50.0 44.0 39.0 44.9 50.3 38.0 35.8 34.5 32.0
Financial Problems 47.0 46.1 -31.5 29.3 17.1 11.3 50.5 52.9 50.6 59.7 51.5 60.9 51.2 55.2 57.3 56.2 52.1 54.9 58.2 48.0 45.9 37.4 41.8
Competition 55.5 41.5 33.9 22.6 42.9 17.7 39.4 10.9 39.4 42.3 47.2 52.2 38.9 50.5 57.7 45.8 35.9 41.2 37.1 44.0 43.4 42.0 40.3
Labor Problems -6.1 -16.1 -3.2 0.0 0.0 -8.5 -1.1 -2.3 2.3 11.5 0.0 23.9 22.3 19.9 9.2 26.9 11.3 13.1 10.9 15.1 7.4 11.0 13.5
Lack of Materials Input -0.6 3.9 23.4 7.3 -20.0 -7.8 12.2 15.5 16.0 19.0 -6.2 -2.6 28.2 18.5 20.0 31.6 10.6 15.4 18.1 16.3 12.9 19.2 17.8
Unfavourable Political Climate 12.8 9.1 20.2 8.0 7.1 -20.2 32.4 44.9 26.5 29.8 33.5 4.5 34.2 39.8 44.9 42.8 22.9 41.9 35.0 29.3 35.2 35.1 33.8
Unfavourable Economic Climate 20.1 38.4 33.1 16.5 -7.1 -24.8 56.4 62.7 27.7 51.9 34.9 35.8 45.4 40.1 50.6 48.5 39.7 52.1 45.4 32.8 46.3 42.2 44.7
N/$ Exchange Rate -11.0 19.0 -29.0 -4.9 -20.0 5.7 7.4 -5.1 22.3 11.8 13.2 42.2 19.5 12.0 2.1 -16.2 0.4 -9.8 -10.3 -4.4 7.8 6.0 7.7
Inflation Rate 39.0 28.0 12.9 13.4 28.6 48.2 -3.2 27.4 29.4 11.8 13.1 11.8 10.0 1.1 -1.6 34.6 32.1 16.9 27.9 26.8 22.4 31.2 12.3
Borrowing Rate 30.5 -2.0 4.8 -3.7 34.3 40.4 1.1 -1.1 2.3 6.9 2.8 32.0 -11.5 -1.6 25.4 10.3 7.7 14.8 20.3 15.3 7.1 9.1 6.3
N/$ Exchange Rate 23.2 20.7 1.6 1.2 -11.4 5.0 38.3 20.6 21.2 21.7 20.7 43.9 11.6 21.5 29.7 13.8 13.4 -2.8 10.0 5.1 4.8 5.4 -4.7
Inflation Rate 11.0 6.9 22.6 6.1 42.9 22.7 19.1 10.3 10.5 26.7 10.3 39.9 18.9 0.5 4.8 9.2 8.5 5.6 31.4 14.1 20.4 24.5 3.0
Borrowing Rate 22.0 -12.1 -1.6 -2.4 31.4 33.3 -12.8 -30.8 -2.3 21.1 -1.0 15.1 0.0 -24.2 6.5 2.5 7.8 12.4 11.4 11.4 5.7 3.7 1.3
Importer 15.9 20.7 30.7 6.1 11.4 17.7 24.5 24.1 21.2 26.1 15.1 14.0 15.3 18.8 17.3 16.6 19.0 27.1 11.7 14.4 12.9 16.8 20.7
Exporter 9.8 1.7 3.2 46.0 0.0 9.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.8 0.3 2.4 2.3 1.3
Small (<50) 70.7 85.3 59.7 43.9 77.1 76.6 74.5 81.6 72.9 80.7 75.5 77.0 83.2 74.2 75.7 82.0 83.5 76.8 85.2 82.3 85.4 78.9 78.3
Medium (50 and <200) 20.7 11.2 30.6 7.3 14.3 18.4 11.7 14.9 20 12.4 19.8 18.5 12.1 17.7 17.3 8.8 11.3 15.1 9.3 12.4 9.8 13.4 10.3
Large (200 and Up) 8.5 3.4 9.7 7.3 8.6 5.0 13.8 3.4 7.1 6.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 8.1 7.0 9.2 5.3 8.1 5.5 5.4 4.7 7.7 11.3
No Response 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 82 100 48 48 35 141 94 87 85 161 106 178 190 186 185 283 284 284 290 299 295 298 300
Industrial Sector 1.2 7.2 -6.3 0.0 14.3 4.3 -6.4 11.5 2.4 -3.1 5.7 7.9 8.9 -2.2 6.5 0.0 3.9 5.3 4.1 6.0 7.5 9.7 5.0
Construction Sector 0.0 4.0 -1.9 6.3 0.0 -0.7 -2.1 0.0 1.2 -2.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.1 2.7 -0.7 2.5 7.4 0.3 2.3 4.1 4.4 4.7
Wholesale and Retail Trade 12.2 0.0 20.3 4.2 14.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 -8.2 -0.6 9.4 5.1 11.1 2.7 7.0 -2.8 1.1 4.6 9.0 5.0 3.7 5.7 6.3
Services Sector 11.8 7.5 8.7 0.0 21.4 -0.9 1.9 2.3 14.5 6.3 5.8 35.2 18.7 -1.7 -2.1 -0.6 14.1 6.3 7.6 6.4 13.2 9.7 6.3
Industrial Sector 9.8 11.0 0.0 4.2 -14.3 3.5 -2.1 9.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 6.2 6.3 -5.9 -1.1 -0.4 1.4 4.6 2.8 3.7 5.4 5.7 6.3
Construction Sector -8.5 5.0 -4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.1 2.3 2.4 -1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 -0.4 2.8 -1.4 2.0 0.3 2.0 -1.7
Services Sector 6.4 12.5 -4.2 -12.5 2.9 11.0 4.3 -6.9 0.0 3.8 10.2 12.3 17.1 -1.7 7.2 1.1 6.3 8.1 2.8 7.4 9.2 5.4 7.3
2014 2015 2016 2017
38.0 35.0 17.8 25.2 19.3 -16.3 23.6 -1.7 -24.4 1.7 9.4 -38.5 -40.0 -10.1 -18.4 -19.8
65.0 62.3 53.7 64.8 55.9 47.7 65.1 39.7 38.6 53.7 46.2 33.1 5.7 43.0 15.4 52.6
40.5 50.7 19.4 39.4 6.9 -20.6 28.8 -1.5 -26.3 -16.7 -11.9 -47.6 -54.4 0.0 -25.0 -9.6
40.8 24.5 13.6 18.6 -4.8 -33.3 11.1 -7.5 -19.7 -8.3 0.0 -20.0 -22.0 -8.2 5.0 -34.6
28.8 22.4 17.1 17.3 17.3 5.2 10.5 -8.5 -25.9 8.9 -5.0 -36.4 -27.3 -9.5 -26.3 -28.7
41.3 38.2 19.0 23.8 41.1 -20.4 34.8 5.6 -25.0 11.2 33.3 -45.5 -47.2 -16.8 -18.8 -13.2
34.8 23.8 20.8 50.0 40.0 -19.0 50.0 12.0 -36.8 -12.5 15.8 -40.0 -55.4 -16.7 -32.1 44.4
50.0 22.6 -12.9 3.3 48.4 -30.8 20.7 -6.3 -39.5 9.7 48.8 -45.0 -36.7 -25.0 9.1 -18.2
30.8 57.7 36.0 30.8 65.0 -31.6 37.9 34.6 -5.0 22.2 45.5 -68.4 -42.1 -17.4 -13.6 -37.1
48.0 50.0 40.0 17.4 12.5 10.5 30.8 -16.0 7.1 24.0 4.2 -30.0 -45.0 -8.3 -32.0 38.1
67.6 67.1 62.9 70.4 48.6 35.3 79.7 50.8 43.9 53.3 30.5 34.9 -5.3 54.8 29.5 51.9
61.2 71.4 47.7 83.7 50.0 45.6 57.8 57.5 44.3 39.6 58.1 31.7 19.5 46.9 15.0 61.5
53.4 48.7 44.3 50.7 49.4 55.8 44.7 37.8 29.6 48.1 41.3 36.4 27.3 47.3 26.3 53.5
73.1 64.7 57.1 68.8 69.5 51.0 74.1 27.8 39.6 64.5 53.0 30.3 -7.6 35.6 4.8 50.0
69.6 81.0 62.5 54.5 70.0 47.6 82.1 36.0 47.4 62.5 42.1 30.0 -44.6 33.3 -52.8 77.8
63.3 38.7 38.7 72.7 61.3 43.6 72.4 21.9 37.2 58.1 63.4 27.5 58.3 66.7 84.6 22.7
92.3 65.4 72.0 80.8 85.0 31.6 69.0 30.8 25.0 59.3 48.5 26.3 21.1 30.4 31.8 56.5
68.0 83.3 60.0 65.2 66.7 89.5 73.1 24.0 57.1 80.0 50.0 40.0 -10.0 19.4 20.0 47.6
31.1 41.1 33.9 11.3 23.6 -4.4 1.7 -10.8 -10.5 -8.3 -23.7 -22.2 -52.6 -14.5 -11.4 -5.8
18.4 0.0 2.3 0.0 -7.1 -3.5 -20.0 -2.5 4.9 -25.0 -11.6 -5.0 -12.2 2.0 -17.5 -38.5
23.3 14.5 30.0 1.3 17.3 6.5 15.8 -6.1 -11.1 -3.8 -8.8 -36.4 -24.7 -6.8 -18.4 2.0
23.1 27.5 16.2 29.7 14.7 21.4 4.5 4.6 -4.2 -7.5 13.7 -6.1 -36.0 -11.5 -12.8 -16.7
34.7 33.3 23.1 22.4 21.4 8.3 19.5 8.1 -2.4 9.5 11.4 -17.7 -34.3 -4.0 -22.5 -14.3
41.3 32.3 28.8 20.3 23.1 4.0 23.6 8.1 -3.1 8.2 12.7 -21.4 -32.7 -4.4 -18.1 -4.1
7.0 0.3 -7.1 3.1 2.1 -7.7 3.4 -2.4 -10.8 -2.4 -12.7 -19.1 -30.3 -16.1 -32.4 -44.0
24.3 23.0 21.4 13.4 14.5 7.0 3.1 -2.7 -5.4 -9.5 -3.3 -17.1 -33.0 -8.7 -14.7 -10.2
42.3 30.0 27.0 22.1 25.5 16.0 24.7 3.1 4.7 9.9 9.4 -3.0 -18.7 -1.0 -8.5 -13.3
68.3 60.7 57.7 60.0 71.0 72.3 70.5 70.2 66.8 71.4 65.6 64.5 33.0 52.7 28.3 62.8
45.0 36.0 26.7 31.4 41.4 33.3 46.9 42.4 32.5 42.2 53.8 26.8 21.0 23.8 22.2 41.3
67.6 67.1 69.4 70.4 75.0 66.2 78.0 75.4 52.6 66.7 44.1 68.3 61.4 67.7 61.4 53.8
65.3 53.1 50.0 48.8 69.0 59.6 64.4 57.5 65.6 72.9 55.8 78.3 58.5 69.4 42.5 83.3
65.8 61.8 64.3 45.3 70.4 68.8 65.8 54.9 65.4 67.1 62.5 70.1 55.8 74.3 64.5 66.7
64.4 56.9 52.4 53.5 69.5 65.3 58.0 57.4 66.7 63.6 65.8 63.6 63.2 69.9 72.9 64.1
69.6 57.1 58.3 68.2 60.0 66.7 64.3 52.0 73.7 66.7 57.9 65.0 91.1 77.8 88.7 100.0
50.0 41.9 54.8 43.3 67.7 59.0 62.1 53.1 69.8 74.2 65.9 57.5 40.0 66.7 66.7 -29.4
65.4 76.9 48.0 69.2 85.0 57.9 62.1 69.2 50.0 59.3 78.8 68.4 42.1 73.9 59.1 100.0
76.0 54.2 48.0 34.8 66.7 84.2 42.3 56.0 71.4 52.0 54.2 70.0 40.0 66.7 60.0 40.0
2014 2015 2016 2017
41.8 47.8 52.0 43.6 49.1 39.2 43.3 40.8 38.3 38.1 43.8 39.1 49.0 56.0 50.9 62.8
27.8 38.2 43.8 33.3 30.7 19.5 24.7 27.6 23.6 29.6 38.3 30.9 36.7 49.0 51.5 42.8
28.5 29.7 31.3 20.9 12.1 -7.7 15.6 16.4 5.1 24.0 30.3 9.9 25.8 38.8 31.6 34.1
20.3 20.5 32.0 20.5 22.9 17.5 22.9 34.6 22.4 32.3 44.3 26.4 37.0 44.3 51.9 51.0
30.5 45.0 39.7 30.9 35.5 19.5 33.6 35.4 23.4 32.3 28.1 13.5 42.3 42.3 39.9 45.1
49.0 51.3 46.8 38.4 40.5 44.2 49.3 49.0 45.3 52.4 59.7 51.0 54.2 60.9 52.9 53.1
42.2 51.8 57.1 38.4 37.8 47.7 38.0 32.7 47.1 34.9 35.1 48.2 41.5 41.4 47.6 36.2
15.3 25.8 24.4 12.6 2.1 -8.2 -2.1 8.6 -4.1 -3.1 19.7 0.0 6.2 15.8 21.3 6.5
21.8 19.5 24.0 17.1 4.1 -7.5 6.0 4.2 8.0 13.3 23.1 19.1 30.0 37.2 36.7 17.6
36.3 41.5 44.7 35.9 33.6 24.8 25.9 26.8 24.7 28.9 44.5 23.9 28.7 40.1 46.6 39.1
45.5 50.0 56.2 42.9 43.4 32.2 46.1 48.5 28.6 58.0 63.0 48.3 43.5 61.1 52.2 54.9
59.3 73.0 68.9 59.7 72.9 75.8 67.5 66.1 66.8 70.1 70.7 62.4 51.2 74.0 44.4 66.6
5.3 -6.7 7.1 2.8 -1.4 -34.3 7.5 16.3 -40.7 2.0 -15.4 -29.8 -15.7 -7.4 8.9 -27.0
6.0 19.3 10.7 16.6 37.2 27.7 25.3 33.2 22.7 31.3 46.2 19.7 1.3 10.7 4.4 27.0
24.0 16.7 12.1 4.1 12.8 26.7 6.8 2.4 10.8 9.9 18.1 12.0 -4.0 8.4 -5.1 -6.5
4.7 -3.3 8.9 -3.4 -7.2 -7.3 11.0 9.5 -13.6 6.1 20.1 -10.4 -0.3 17.4 27.0 40.3
-4.7 4.3 11.7 3.8 21.0 11.0 7.2 27.5 12.9 7.1 -2.0 -3.3 -8.3 5.0 -8.9 -7.5
-2.0 1.7 0.7 -2.1 15.9 28.0 -3.8 10.8 16.3 0.7 0.0 13.0 3.0 9.4 16.4 -6.5
12.3 13.3 16.0 19.0 22.4 9.0 13.4 16.9 10.8 12.9 23.7 11.7 23.3 13.4 31.7 31.1
2.3 3.0 1.4 2.8 4.1 2.7 5.1 6.4 4.4 3.1 4.3 2.3 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4
12.3 7.3 13.5 9.7 7.2 13.0 7.9 7.8 10.8 6.1 8.4 9.7 5.3 8.7 9.2 10.9
73.0 76.3 69.0 68.6 66.2 75.3 73.6 68.8 73.9 77.9 63.5 76.3 69.3 76.8 57.3 56.7
82.3 82.3 82.9 77.9 74.5 77.3 82.2 85.1 73.2 83.3 81.9 82.6 70.7 84.6 65.5 83.3
12.3 10.7 10.3 12.1 16.6 19.3 12.0 10.2 23.4 13.3 15.7 14.7 14.0 13.4 15.4 14.3
5.3 7.0 6.8 10.0 9.0 3.3 5.8 4.7 3.4 3.4 2.3 2.7 15.3 2.0 19.1 2.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
300 300 281 290 290 300 292 295 295 294 299 299 300 298 293 293
74 73 62 71 72 68 59 65 57 60 59 63 57 62 44 52
49 49 44 43 42 57 45 40 61 48 43 60 41 49 40 26
73 76 70 75 81 77 76 82 81 79 80 77 77 74 76 101
104 102 105 101 95 98 112 108 96 107 117 99 125 113 133 114
23 21 24 22 20 21 28 25 19 24 19 20 56 18 53 9
30 31 31 30 31 39 29 32 43 31 41 40 30 36 33 22
26 26 25 26 20 19 29 26 20 27 33 19 19 23 22 62
25 24.0 25.0 23.0 24 19 26 25 14 25 24 20 20 36 25 21
10.0 12.3 4.3 9.7 1.7 -4.7 5.8 -0.3 -5.1 -3.4 -2.3 -10.0 -10.3 0.0 -3.8 -1.7
6.7 4.0 2.1 2.8 -0.7 -6.3 1.7 -1.0 -4.1 -1.4 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.3 0.7 -3.1
7.0 5.7 4.3 4.5 4.8 1.3 2.7 -2.4 -7.1 2.4 -1.3 -9.4 -7.0 -2.3 -6.8 -9.9
14.3 13.0 7.1 8.3 13.4 -6.7 13.4 2.0 -8.1 4.1 13.0 -15.1 -19.7 -6.4 -8.5 -5.1
7.7 10.0 7.5 2.8 5.9 -1.0 0.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.7 -4.7 -4.7 -10.0 -3.0 -1.7 -1.0
3.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 -3.1 -0.3 1.0 -4.1 -1.7 -1.0 -1.7 0.3 -2.4 -3.4
5.7 3.7 7.5 0.3 4.8 1.7 4.1 -1.7 -3.1 -1.0 -2.3 -9.4 -6.3 -1.7 -4.8 0.7
8.0 9.3 6.0 10.3 4.8 7.0 1.7 1.7 -1.4 -2.7 5.4 -2.0 -15.0 -4.4 -5.8 -6.5
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Table E.1.1.6: Business Expectations Survey - South West
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Current Quarter
South West 8.5 9.0 -25.4 -19.7 -2.5 -14.0 8.6 -4.7 -4.6 14.3 8.1 31.3 40.6 11.5 28.4 18.6 13.4 10.1 12.5 17.9 14.3 14.5 9.6
Next Quarter
South West 46.4 55.1 31.5 30.1 42.2 44.7 53.5 9.5 40.5 57.7 48.9 61.6 70.3 67.1 69.6 65.0 53.8 52.9 48.3 49.5 43.1 56.7 50.3
Industrial Sector 13.9 5.1 -37.5 -32.9 -14.5 -24.1 -3.8 -15.1 8.3 29.6 13.5 43.4 45.3 40.0 7.1 17.8 12.1 7.6 9.4 18.3 17.8 14.5 10.4
Construction Sector -7.4 56.5 -28.6 -44.4 -25.0 -15.4 44.4 16.7 -2.6 30.0 -13.3 30.8 36.4 -3.8 20.2 6.3 31.9 0.0 8.3 17.6 31.0 22.0 11.4
Wholesale and Retail Trade -4.8 0.0 -5.8 -18.4 8.0 14.9 -6.8 -19.6 -12.1 -3.8 9.0 22.1 39.1 1.5 20.9 14.4 13.3 9.3 7.1 8.7 5.9 6.0 0.9
Services Sector of which: 9.2 -8.3 -41.2 -18.2 5.2 -23.4 17.0 15.8 0.0 8.0 0.0 33.8 35.9 30.0 50.0 24.0 8.3 16.0 25.0 22.9 12.4 18.4 15.5
Financial Intermediation 100.0 0.0 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 -33.3 20.0 0.0 14.3 60.0 33.3 40.0 64.3 23.1 41.2 -25.0 42.9 40.0 46.4 25.9 47.6 53.5 57.6
Hotels and Restaurants 8.3 -37.5 -40.0 -18.2 -16.7 -11.8 6.3 -37.5 -25.0 4.5 4.8 27.8 41.2 40.0 50.0 35.5 -12.5 10.5 61.1 23.6 -4.2 6.3 5.1
Renting and Business Activities 63.6 -50.0 0.0 -18.2 0.0 0.0 25.0 20.0 -28.6 20.0 50.0 -20.0 14.3 0.0 50.0 17.6 4.8 20.0 3.2 34.0 -14.8 12.5 3.8
Community and Social Services 12.5 -54.5 0.0 -14.3 0.0 -50.0 45.5 -20.0 -4.7 25.0 0.0 -20.0 -100.0 11.5 28.3 42.9 11.3 9.3 6.5 5.4 31.7 -11.5 -6.5
Hotels and Restaurants 83.3 56.3 20.0 45.5 8.3 58.8 81.3 -18.8 53.6 59.1 38.1 72.2 71.4 60.0 100.0 71.0 35.0 50.0 77.8 56.4 35.4 50.0 64.3
Renting and Business Activities 81.8 0.0 70.0 -9.1 0.0 50.0 62.5 26.7 0.0 80.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 50.0 82.4 42.9 65.7 35.5 57.4 22.2 62.5 57.7
Community and Social Services 75.0 27.3 -12.5 -7.1 0.0 12.5 72.7 -20.0 28.6 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.1 69.6 85.7 56.5 51.2 51.6 43.2 51.2 42.3 9.7
Industrial Sector -37.0 8.6 -10.9 -6.6 -8.1 -5.1 5.8 -18.9 -1.6 29.6 23.0 27.7 0.0 20.0 37.8 19.2 16.8 11.4 10.3 20.2 16.1 24.8 20.0
Construction Sector 3.7 31.8 0.0 0.0 25.0 -7.7 22.2 25.0 -16.7 45.0 13.3 15.4 23.0 20.0 28.6 6.3 17.0 32.6 18.8 23.5 33.3 26.8 27.3
Wholesale and Retail Trade -6.3 -10.9 0.0 -16.3 4.0 10.9 6.8 13.0 -10.3 2.5 15.7 7.8 29.7 31.8 21.3 14.4 24.4 20.6 24.2 21.7 20.6 23.2 21.3
Services Sector -4.5 8.6 -5.2 -20.2 1.4 -2.1 20.8 -17.5 -1.7 1.3 -1.4 32.3 100.0 30.0 40.3 31.3 9.7 25.2 26.9 36.1 26.3 34.8 32.6
Volume of Business Activity Index 23.1 22.8 -5.5 -7.1 11.6 3.1 8.6 -13.7 0.4 26.4 26.4 42.7 49.4 26.2 35.7 32.1 24.5 23.7 28.1 29.5 26.6 30.1 29.0
Volume of Total Order Book Index 22.0 17.9 -9.4 -5.2 9.5 -2.2 3.5 -18.4 -3.3 22.9 29.6 40.6 40.5 25.0 33.2 37.2 26.0 25.0 27.6 27.3 22.8 28.1 27.0
Credit Access Index 1.4 5.7 -19.9 -23.0 -11.1 -6.1 -9.1 -23.6 -18.1 3.8 8.4 12.5 25.7 26.2 29.0 16.6 -0.8 -5.3 -8.5 3.0 1.3 8.3 4.8
Financial Condition Index -12.2 9.0 -5.5 -11.2 -0.5 -5.7 10.6 -13.2 -1 15.0 15.1 25.0 27.4 21.1 34.6 22.0 16.0 21.1 19.5 27.5 22.6 28.1 25.3
Average Capacity Utilization 11.2 16.7 7.2 -3.0 17.1 8.8 24.2 10.8 11.1 27.5 28.5 30.2 36.5 32.1 42.3 31.0 22.7 16.4 21.3 35.9 30.4 28.0 30.8
Volume of Business Activity Index 71.2 67.8 53.0 49.1 67.3 55.7 65.7 28.3 60 75.4 61.2 81.2 81.1 78.1 73.8 76.8 77.0 75.5 73.7 73.8 75.4 68.4 71.7
Financial Intermediation 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 60.0 75.0 50.0 20.0 33.3 -6.7 57.1 0.0 80.0 16.7 81.0 73.3 78.6 55.6 85.7 72.1 93.9
Table E.1.1.6: Business Expectations Survey - South West
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lack of Equipment 20.2 2.9 17.7 17.7 13.6 12.3 18.4 32.8 23.3 25.2 28.1 10.4 11.9 23.4 24.6 26.3 25.7 23.7 34.3 28.7 32.9 33.2 18.0
Insufficient Demand 19.3 1.5 23.2 29.7 18.6 10.7 37.1 23.8 26.3 27.8 31.0 19.3 36.6 25.4 37.7 38.3 42.4 25.2 40.0 30.1 30.3 40.1 21.9
Access to Credit 31.7 13.9 14.9 12.3 27.4 44.3 38.4 55.9 32.3 50.8 47.1 31.5 45.2 42.5 45.0 34.3 34.0 30.8 32.5 36.1 42.8 42.7 33.5
Competition 33.6 45.5 40.9 34.2 42.5 37.9 43.9 25.8 37.5 35.5 29.9 37.5 -56.3 31.5 37.8 41.7 42.4 48.1 50.3 46.0 43.7 49.4 40.8
Labor Problems 3.1 -8.0 -3.3 -4.5 -2.0 -5.7 -6.6 14.8 -3.4 1.4 -3.0 3.6 2.9 2.6 0.9 6.4 5.9 10.1 22.0 19.4 12.3 19.5 13.2
Lack of Materials Input 12.9 -2.9 19.1 18.0 9.8 -0.4 16.4 23.4 11.0 11.3 13.6 10.0 15.6 16.1 21.6 25.7 19.6 17.3 28.6 16.8 23.2 26.5 13.7
Unfavourable Political Climate 34.1 25.2 24.9 22.5 27.1 38.2 39.1 38.1 41.2 42.8 26.4 24.3 16.8 22.4 21.1 20.4 25.7 39.0 41.5 32.1 38.7 33.2 32.0
Unfavourable Economic Climate 49.7 38.6 46.4 40.9 44.7 58.3 56.6 42.0 46.1 49.2 37.2 32.2 22.9 23.2 23.6 28.4 34.7 45.0 50.3 36.9 50.1 47.3 40.6
N/$ Exchange Rate 17.3 9.0 -16.0 -12.6 8.0 -15.4 -16.7 17.0 -26.1 0.0 -11.3 -13.2 -24.7 -9.6 2.5 -0.3 -9.2 0.2 0.3 -3.0 3.0 9.5 -4.0
Inflation Rate 24.4 31.1 30.4 15.6 16.1 17.1 27.8 9.9 -0.5 7.2 11.3 23.2 32.7 26.2 17.1 31.2 32.5 27.6 39.7 41.1 22.3 21.1 26.8
Borrowing Rate -3.7 17.9 6.1 11.9 8.5 3.1 11.6 3.7 -0.5 -1.3 8.1 -8.5 -10.8 29.4 29.0 34.3 28.3 11.5 20.5 22.5 12.3 20.5 20.5
N/$ Exchange Rate 26.1 20.5 9.9 9.7 26.6 19.7 4.0 0.9 18.6 14.5 2.1 17.8 45.6 19.4 13.0 28.4 5.1 9.8 -4.4 4.3 10.2 12 18.7
Inflation Rate -2.4 -0.4 6.1 10.8 1.5 7.9 17.7 6.7 2.3 4.8 -9.5 35.2 18.5 -16.7 -12.6 2.6 18.8 3.5 24.1 28.5 15.6 14.8 14.6
Borrowing Rate -16.9 10.2 -3.9 5.6 6.0 4.4 21.7 -5.2 -0.9 -3.5 4.2 -6.4 7.1 5.2 16.5 7.1 23.4 -4.0 7.8 17.7 10.6 16.5 15.4
Importer 18.6 20.8 32.0 22.3 18.1 19.3 46.5 34.4 21.9 14.6 14.8 17.8 16.6 26.2 17.5 19.8 13.7 17.6 22.6 20.2 16.0 21.6 15.2
Exporter 3.7 7.3 2.8 3.3 7.0 3.9 5.6 7.5 5.6 1.4 1.1 2.8 3.4 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.5 1.9 7.5 4.3 2.5 3.3 3.3
Small (<50) 59.7 64.5 64.1 60.6 64.3 66.2 56.6 52.8 67.4 75.7 74.6 77.6 75.0 76.6 76.2 78.5 74.5 78.5 75.6 75.0 78.9 78.2 74.1
Medium (50 and <200) 19.0 20.4 24.3 29.8 18.1 17.1 22.2 30.2 20.5 14.6 13.4 11.4 11.8 10.3 12.2 13.2 16.0 13.6 15.8 15.9 13.5 15.0 17.3
Large (200 and Up) 21.0 14.7 11.6 9.6 13.6 16.7 21.2 17.0 12.1 9.4 12.0 11.0 13.2 13.1 11.5 7.7 9.5 7.7 8.6 9.1 7.5 6.8 8.6
No Response 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
All Sectors 295 285 181 218 191 228 198 212 215 288 284 281 296 252 286 349 388 376 385 396 399 399 396
Industrial Sector 3.4 2.1 -13.3 -11.5 -4.7 -8.3 -1.0 -3.8 2.4 7.3 3.5 12.8 14.5 9.0 1.8 3.7 3.4 2.1 2.9 4.8 5.3 4.3 3.0
Construction Sector -0.7 4.6 -1.1 -1.8 -0.5 -0.9 2.0 0.9 -0.1 2.1 -0.7 1.4 1.4 -0.1 1.0 0.3 3.9 0.0 1.0 1.5 3.3 2.3 1.3
Wholesale and Retail Trade -1.0 0.0 -1.7 -4.1 2.1 3.1 -1.5 -4.2 -2.2 -1.0 2.8 6.0 11.5 0.5 6.9 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.3
Services Sector 4.1 -2.4 -13.2 -7.0 2.0 -9.1 8.0 7.5 0.0 3.3 0.0 13.0 12.5 12.5 18.2 11.2 3.1 5.6 7.9 9.6 4.3 6.5 5.1
Industrial Sector -9.2 3.5 -3.9 -2.3 -2.6 -1.8 1.5 -4.7 -0.5 7.3 6.0 8.2 0.0 4.5 9.8 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.1 5.3 4.8 7.3 5.8
Construction Sector 0.3 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.4 1.0 1.4 -0.9 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.3 2.0 3.5 2.8 3.0
Wholesale and Retail Trade -1.4 -2.5 0.0 -3.7 1.1 2.2 1.5 2.8 -1.9 0.7 4.9 2.1 8.7 10.1 7.0 4.0 5.7 5.3 6.2 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.8
Services Sector -2.0 2.5 -1.7 -7.8 0.5 -0.8 9.7 -8.4 -0.8 0.5 -0.5 12.4 34.8 12.5 14.7 14.6 3.6 8.8 8.4 15.2 9.0 12.3 10.6
2014 2015 2016 2017
20.9 17.0 17.0 8.3 -5.6 8.5 6.8 13.1 -10.4 -14.5 -26.8 -27.8 -33.9 4.4 -8.3 12.6
57.0 58.0 56.6 43.2 27.3 54.8 59.0 61.1 51.6 48.6 41.2 35.9 33.9 52.7 46.5 59.1
21.0 10.7 13.2 14.7 4.9 -1.7 11.3 9.0 -14.6 -12.5 -31.1 -17.1 -33.1 -2.2 -8.9 16.8
40.9 19.0 20.5 0.0 -20.5 30.6 -20.7 -2.9 -8.3 -33.3 -25.8 -42.1 -51.7 -14.3 -14.6 -5.7
24.5 25.0 15.3 10.7 -8.8 11.7 5.8 16.3 -20.2 -13.3 -20.7 -30.1 -25.6 8.4 -8.6 15.3
11.3 16.2 21.1 3.1 -8.3 9.1 9.6 18.1 0.0 -11.6 -28.7 -31.3 -38.2 12.7 -5.4 11.2
51.3 30.4 26.7 26.3 6.3 54.5 52.6 -5.6 0.0 -19.0 -34.6 -11.8 -48.0 30.4 20.0 6.3
-2.4 -6.8 31.0 -20.6 -18.4 -9.4 -6.9 14.3 -17.4 -44.1 -52.9 -28.6 -41.4 -19.2 -3.2 7.4
0.0 34.6 16.7 -8.0 -39.1 0.0 -13.6 23.8 -3.3 0.0 -28.6 -15.8 -27.8 13.3 9.1 10.5
-14.8 20.9 12.2 15.1 11.4 5.6 12.3 26.5 8.1 7.4 -10.9 -42.2 -35.6 19.4 -25.0 14.3
57.1 50.8 49.1 48.3 36.1 55.5 62.6 56.8 49.5 46.9 30.2 36.8 39.7 55.1 50.0 64.1
54.5 57.1 69.2 58.8 -10.3 63.9 62.1 52.9 55.6 48.7 16.1 26.3 20.7 28.6 19.5 37.1
64.7 68.0 58.5 36.4 36.3 52.3 51.2 66.7 40.7 48.6 52.6 31.0 30.8 52.6 48.6 54.1
51.9 57.4 57.8 42.7 22.3 53.8 62.4 61.2 60.9 50.4 45.5 42.2 36.3 59.3 53.7 64.0
69.2 69.6 60.0 42.1 43.8 63.6 78.9 61.1 55.0 28.6 38.5 47.1 32.0 69.6 64.0 68.8
45.2 45.5 61.9 44.1 26.3 62.5 57.1 53.6 78.3 38.2 29.4 64.3 45.5 66.7 72.7 63.0
44.0 50.0 46.7 40.0 -8.7 37.5 63.6 57.1 55.2 70.0 53.6 68.4 50.0 80.0 54.5 84.2
44.4 67.4 61.0 43.4 27.3 51.9 59.4 67.3 59.0 59.3 54.5 23.4 30.5 48.4 40.4 57.1
21.8 24.6 14.0 24.1 -10.7 5.9 12.2 13.5 1.9 -0.8 -17.9 -11.1 -11.6 -8.1 -21.0 1.5
27.3 14.3 2.6 11.8 -25.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 -2.8 2.6 -19.4 -39.5 -24.1 -14.3 -22.0 -22.9
31.7 27.0 27.1 22.5 6.1 19.8 14.0 13.3 1.8 -1.9 -5.2 -31.0 -12.8 2.1 1.0 -1.0
19.5 26.5 18.8 25.2 4.1 29.5 22.2 23.5 15.6 6.2 -9.8 -11.7 3.1 4.8 3.1 9.7
27.9 31.0 23.6 20.1 7.1 21.1 14.3 19.7 7.6 1.3 -12.4 -8.8 -8.8 6.2 -2.8 12.6
26.1 31.5 20.1 24.8 3.5 19.4 13.3 15.2 13.1 6.5 -12.6 -13.9 -12.3 4.7 -4.3 8.5
8.0 6.5 8.5 6.3 -7.8 6.8 1.3 5.6 3.9 3.3 -9.6 -24.0 -16.3 -13.1 -12.3 -33.2
24.1 24.8 18.3 22.9 -2.8 17.6 15.3 15.2 6.3 1.5 -11.4 -19.7 -8.0 -1.8 -7.5 1.3
31.7 34.3 25.6 24.1 -0.8 23.9 15.5 19.2 19.2 10.6 -1.3 -6.3 0.5 9.4 5.5 6.2
70.1 76.3 64.2 49.7 27.3 59.5 67.4 70.7 66.9 63.3 53.9 54.0 54.8 65.5 60.3 71.4
43.7 54.5 45.9 39.4 16.2 43.0 45.4 49.2 49.3 37.2 24.6 34.8 25.6 38.1 39.7 37.6
68.1 73.8 64.9 62.1 49.2 70.6 74.8 70.3 71.8 60.9 52.8 66.7 54.2 53.7 57.3 32.0
77.3 71.4 66.7 64.7 38.5 80.6 75.9 70.6 75.0 69.2 67.7 76.3 58.6 64.3 48.8 33.3
80.4 88.0 83.1 58.9 63.2 80.2 79.3 83.7 64.2 69.5 63.8 73.5 63.2 68.4 70.5 52.8
70.7 82.4 76.6 69.5 50.4 72.7 74.1 80.2 80.0 71.3 69.2 71.9 67.2 57.9 66.9 56.5
79.5 91.3 66.7 84.2 62.5 77.3 73.7 77.8 75.0 71.4 73.1 82.4 68.0 65.2 68.0 53.8
61.9 77.3 83.3 67.6 52.6 71.9 62.1 82.1 78.3 64.7 61.8 82.1 69.0 46.2 64.5 42.9
72.0 73.1 76.7 76.0 39.1 75.0 72.7 81.0 76.7 70.0 82.1 73.7 77.8 33.3 68.2 73.3
70.4 88.4 73.2 62.3 50.0 70.4 80.0 79.6 83.9 75.9 65.5 64.1 62.7 66.1 67.3 58.1
2014 2015 2016 2017
51.5 32.9 47.9 37.5 31.1 52.9 41.1 49.6 51.8 50.3 57.2 56.4 48.6 62.5 49.9 63.1
33.0 30.6 27.8 25.4 24.9 38.6 28.5 30.0 35.6 29.9 42.8 46.1 36.4 46.2 38.3 41.5
25.0 15.3 19.3 22.9 14.4 22.1 16.9 14.3 21.2 19.5 18.8 30.6 19.7 37.3 19.4 27.3
29.8 19.9 21.7 23.8 18.7 21.9 22.9 30.1 34.7 32.1 38.5 40.0 36.9 43.2 33.9 46.1
34.9 23.8 23.7 24.7 15.5 25.5 20.8 26.2 31.7 34.1 28.8 34.6 30.0 47.3 40.6 40.5
48.6 37.1 31.5 35.0 31.8 39.4 34.3 43.3 47.3 46.4 52.4 55.2 48.6 56.9 50.3 56.7
45.7 38.5 39.6 35.9 40.3 30.9 34.5 40.6 46.7 39.8 41.5 49.2 43.0 51.9 39.9 53.3
5.8 1.5 -1.5 3.9 0.4 5.7 3.0 7.1 11.1 2.9 4.8 20.3 5.5 15.5 -2.0 1.3
16.0 6.0 6.6 8.6 9.0 14.3 12.3 11.3 16.6 15.0 14.8 32.2 19.3 28.8 12.3 16.8
25.3 29.1 24.3 26.8 16.7 29.9 33.8 23.2 27.7 30.8 37.1 40.5 30.5 46.8 35.4 31.2
40.5 37.5 34.1 31.2 24.0 40.5 36.6 29.9 42.8 38.0 51.1 53.9 44.3 55.5 54.3 47.9
70.9 55.1 57.8 45.1 48.6 61.7 50.4 46.7 61.4 59.3 64.3 63.4 60.3 68.8 62.4 70.4
12.1 10.8 13.5 5.3 -17.4 21.6 10.8 27.0 3.1 -4.8 -20.0 -11.4 -19.6 -6.5 2.3 -12.1
22.6 27.5 21.3 8.8 5.8 16.1 16.0 5.6 27.0 20.1 26.1 31.1 16.8 20.9 4.5 10.1
22.1 19.8 15.8 16.1 11.6 21.1 21.1 5.8 20.7 16.3 18.0 21.7 4.5 12.5 16.1 8.5
23.4 27.5 25.1 11.1 -10.1 23.1 24.8 35.1 22.3 12.6 1.3 19.4 -4.0 11.7 26.1 25.3
22.1 17.8 21.8 7.8 1.0 4.8 3.8 -4.3 11.5 9.3 11.1 1.8 9.0 10.2 -9.5 -4.7
18.1 26.3 20.3 13.8 -2.5 17.1 19.8 0.3 15.7 4.0 15.4 9.3 7.8 8.6 5.8 3.6
18.8 23.0 27.1 17.0 15.7 21.6 16.5 20.7 18.0 21.2 19.2 13.1 18.6 22.9 24.6 21.1
4.0 4.3 3.5 0.5 1.5 5.0 1.3 4.3 2.1 3.0 1.8 2.0 0.3 2.1 1.5 2.1
9.3 13.5 12.3 10.0 8.6 9.8 11.8 11.6 10.2 9.5 11.4 9.1 9.8 14.0 12.5 14.7
67.8 59.3 57.1 72.5 74.2 63.6 70.5 63.4 69.7 66.3 67.6 75.8 71.4 61.0 61.4 62.2
77.6 66.8 78.7 67.5 73.0 75.4 83.0 80.1 76.0 78.8 75.3 83.3 73.9 74.5 69.8 79.4
15.8 19.0 11.8 14.5 16.2 13.6 9.3 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.4 9.8 16.1 12.5 15.8 11.1
6.5 14.3 9.5 18.0 10.9 11.1 7.8 7.8 11.7 8.5 11.4 6.8 10.1 13.0 14.5 9.5
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
398 400 399 393 396 398 400 396 383 401 396 396 398 385 400 389
119 122 114 116 122 119 115 111 103 128 106 117 121 136 124 131
44 42 39 34 39 36 29 34 36 39 31 38 29 28 41 35
102 100 118 112 114 111 121 135 109 105 116 113 117 95 105 98
133 136 128 131 121 132 135 116 135 129 143 128 131 126 130 125
39 23 15 19 16 22 19 18 20 21 26 17 25 23 25 16
42 44 42 34 38 32 29 28 23 34 34 28 29 26 31 27
25 26 30 25 23 24 22 21 30 20 28 19 18 15 22 19
27 43 41 53 44 54 65 49 62 54 55 64 59 62 52 63
6.3 3.3 3.8 4.3 1.5 -0.5 3.3 2.5 -3.9 -4.0 -8.3 -5.1 -10.1 -0.8 -2.8 5.7
4.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 2.8 -1.5 -0.3 -0.8 -3.2 -2.0 -4.0 -3.8 -1.0 -1.5 -0.5
6.3 6.3 4.5 3.1 -2.5 3.3 1.8 5.6 -5.7 -3.5 -6.1 -8.6 -7.5 2.1 -2.3 3.9
3.8 5.5 6.8 1.0 -2.5 3.0 3.3 5.3 0.0 -3.7 -10.4 -10.1 -12.6 4.2 -1.8 3.6
6.5 7.5 4.0 7.1 -3.3 1.8 3.5 3.8 0.5 -0.2 -4.8 -3.3 -3.5 -2.9 -6.5 0.5
3.0 1.5 0.3 1.0 -2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -1.5 -3.8 -1.8 -1.0 -2.3 -2.1
8.1 6.8 8.0 6.4 1.8 5.5 4.3 4.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -8.8 -3.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3
6.5 9.0 6.0 8.4 1.3 9.8 7.5 6.9 5.5 2.0 -3.5 -3.8 1.0 1.6 1.0 3.1
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Table E.2.1: Consumer Expectations Survey - National
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. Overall Consumer Confidence Index
All Sectors
Current Quarter -23.0 -20.3 -14.3 -8.0 -4.0 -1.8 4.3 6.4 5.1 -1.6 -4.9 -12.7 -8.8 -11.4 -8.5 -2.7 -8.4 -6.0 -5.1 -1.3 -2.4 -2.9 -3.6
Next Quarter 22.5 21.5 29.3 27.3 30.8 29.1 38.0 38.8 41.7 36.2 29.7 32.1 29.5 25.3 30.0 36.9 31.4 31.3 27.9 35.4 32.9 29.0 30.0
Next 12 months 24.2 28.4 27.0 31.1 35.5 39.3 42.2 39.8 44.6 38.3 31.9 29.5 29.4 26.1 30.0 33.8 27.8 30.4 31.7 35.3 32.6 33.0 34.0
2. Consumer Outlook Indices on the Current Economic and Family Condition: Current Quarter
Economic Condition -35.4 -32.3 -24.1 -12.9 -2.1 9.8 7.1 13.3 5.6 3.0 -4.7 -17.6 -8.9 -10.9 -10.2 2.4 -5.6 -1.4 -3.3 3.4 1.7 -0.5 -2.0
Family Financial Situation -24.3 -19.7 -12.7 -8.8 -11.2 -19.8 -12.2 -12.8 -11.7 -19.5 -15.8 -15.9 -16.7 -16.5 -13.1 -18.4 -17.8 -19.1 -13.4 -10.0 -14.5 -14.0 -13.3
Family Income -9.3 -8.8 -6.3 -2.4 1.4 4.6 18.0 18.7 21.4 11.7 5.8 -4.6 -0.8 -6.9 -2.2 8.0 -1.8 2.6 1.3 2.8 5.4 5.8 4.4
3. Consumer Outlook Indices on Economic and Family Condition: Next Quarter
Economic Condition 12.0 3.1 11.7 13.2 23.9 36.2 29.5 33.3 40.9 38.1 13.4 25.8 21.6 17.8 19.4 26.8 21.8 26.9 24.5 30.8 26.9 27.2 28.1
Family Financial Situation 1.1 2.0 4.6 4.1 12.2 17.0 26.7 25.4 33.2 22.8 11.5 4.4 4.0 3.6 6.2 14.1 5.8 13.5 7.3 14.7 12.9 11.6 14.1
Family Income 54.4 59.5 71.6 64.5 56.3 34.2 57.8 57.6 50.9 47.7 64.1 66.0 62.9 54.5 64.4 69.8 66.7 53.5 51.9 60.8 58.7 48.1 47.0
4. Consumer Outlook Indices on Economic and Family Condition: Next 12 Months
Economic Condition 12.7 16.5 16.2 21.2 32.1 38.1 38.7 39.7 46.3 37.4 20.4 25.4 20.1 18.3 20.3 25.0 17.5 22.2 22.6 28.1 25.7 26.3 28.5
Family Financial Situation 5.6 7.1 8.2 11.6 16.7 20.8 29.9 23.4 32.9 21.8 13.9 4.3 5.9 3.2 6.6 14.3 8.0 11.3 10.2 18.5 17.4 13.9 18.7
Family Income 54.4 61.7 56.5 60.7 57.6 59.2 58.1 56.2 54.6 55.7 61.3 58.8 62.3 56.8 63.2 62.3 58.0 57.8 62.2 59.4 54.7 59.0 54.5
5. Buying Conditions Index: Current Quarter
Buying Conditions Index 37.3 36.8 36.7 40.7 42.8 43.7 48.9 49.2 54.6 49.6 43.5 41.9 40.2 39.6 40.4 44.4 40.1 44.3 41.0 44.0 42.4 43.3 43.4
Consumer Durables 45.4 45.6 46.9 48.8 50.7 52.3 59.0 59.4 60.7 55.9 52.9 47.7 49.6 46.6 48.9 54.0 49.1 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.7 52.9 52.2
Motor Vehicle 31.1 32.7 32.0 38.0 40.9 40.0 43.9 45.5 56.2 47.7 40.7 39.3 36.3 37.9 37.7 40.8 35.8 42.0 36.9 41.0 38.8 39.0 39.6
House & Lot 35.5 32.2 31.2 35.2 36.7 38.9 43.8 42.9 46.8 45.2 36.9 38.8 34.6 34.5 34.6 38.4 35.3 39.7 35.6 39.5 35.5 38.1 38.3
6. Buying Intention Index: Next 12 Months
Buying Intention Index 46.4 45.6 43.6 47.8 51.8 50.6 53.4 52.7 58.0 56.4 49.8 49.1 46.4 47.1 46.7 49.3 45.8 49.4 47.4 51.2 49.3 49.8 50.9
Consumer Durables 52.8 53.6 54.1 55.8 58.4 58.5 65.0 61.7 66.5 60.9 57.0 52.2 53.0 51.6 53.3 57.2 54.0 55.7 55.1 59.3 58.7 56.9 59.4
Motor Vehicle 38.5 42.0 38.5 43.4 48.6 46.1 47.8 49.3 53.4 54.5 47.2 46.4 44.1 46.5 44.5 46.6 41.8 48.1 44.2 48.0 45.5 47.0 46.9
House & Lot 47.8 41.3 38.1 44.2 48.5 47.2 47.5 47.0 54.3 53.9 45.3 48.8 42.0 43.3 42.3 44.1 41.7 44.5 43.0 46.3 43.8 45.7 46.5
7. Indices on Selected Economic Indicators: Next Quarter
Unemployment Rate Index 47.0 36.6 39.7 35.6 34.5 32.5 27.3 20.2 14.3 16.6 29.6 21.1 30.0 34.7 33.8 35.2 39.4 35.7 34.3 33.3 32.1 33.5 24.5
Borrowing Rate Index 22.6 13.9 -23.5 25.2 21.9 6.5 1.2 3.9 -5.8 2.6 10.4 16.0 19.8 24.0 25.1 24.9 24.4 22.7 13.6 25.7 14.2 16.2 15.6
Exchange Rate -28.7 -23.7 23.6 -20.2 -9.7 2.4 14.9 7.7 13.7 10.9 -3.2 -3.5 -11.2 -10.4 -16.3 -4.8 -11.4 -5.0 -10.8 -5.5 1.2 -2.8 1.8
Inflation Rate Index 40.8 46.0 46.2 42.1 39.9 34.7 38.8 36.4 33.4 36.3 44.7 45.0 45.7 47.8 47.6 44.1 45.1 42.4 39.8 43.4 38.9 37.5 36.1
8. Indices on Selected Economic Indicators: Next 12 Months
Unemployment Rate Index 47.0 36.6 39.7 35.6 34.5 32.5 27.3 20.2 14.3 16.6 29.6 21.1 30.0 34.7 33.8 35.2 39.4 35.7 34.3 33.3 32.1 33.5 24.5
Borrowing Rate Index 22.6 13.9 -23.5 25.2 21.9 6.5 1.2 3.9 -5.8 2.6 10.4 16.0 19.8 24.0 25.1 24.9 24.4 22.7 13.6 25.7 14.2 16.2 15.6
Exchange Rate -28.7 -23.7 23.6 -20.2 -9.7 2.4 14.9 7.7 13.7 10.9 -3.2 -3.5 -11.2 -10.4 -16.3 -4.8 -11.4 -5.0 -10.8 -5.5 1.2 -2.8 1.8
Inflation Rate Index 27.6 31.7 32.5 27.8 26.3 23.2 26.1 22.5 22.8 23.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 30.1 30.1 27.1 27.5 26.3 25.5 26.6 25.3 24.0 24.1
9. Sectors Contribution to Price Changes over the Next 12 Months
Food & Other Household Needs
31.3 58.5 60.9 61.2 50.8 24.6 50.0 49.0 47.5 55.6 63.6 59.1 55.6 52.1 65.6 65.0 61.4 56.7 54.3 57.5 53.7 51.5 45.2
Education 57.3 52.5 48.8 50.8 51.5 49.8 50.3 40.2 43.0 42.9 52.1 52.1 49.5 56.3 52.7 54.2 53.1 53.1 47.2 53.3 46.7 47.2 43.3
Medical Expenses
44.4 48.5 47.7 43.8 50.6 43.0 43.5 15.2 38.6 39.2 47.9 48.2 47.8 53.7 49.2 45.4 52.1 48.0 43.9 49.2 38.3 41.9 37.9
Purchase of Appliances/ Consumer durables 30.7 32.9 28.0 30.4 32.2 30.4 32.9 49.3 27.6 25.4 32.0 28.5 33.2 35.5 32.1 30.2 36.6 34.6 30.6 32.6 26.2 25.4 26.8
Telecommunication 23.8 23.3 31.3 30.3 15.5 21.9 17.8 55.8 18.2 21.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 31.6 26.6 25.4 23.4 24.7 20.7 26.8 27.3 22.1 20.6
Electricity 43.4 40.7 44.5 36.5 35.8 35.5 34.9 49.0 35.4 42.1 54.0 56.8 55.4 57.2 58.3 49.4 53.0 47.2 42.8 51.4 41.8 44.5 43.0
Rents 75.3 73.1 66.3 67.4 66.5 64.3 61.6 37.0 52.6 59.1 62.8 65.2 68.4 67.8 67.6 66.9 66.4 60.3 62.8 61.5 60.6 58.3 53.8
Transportation 64.2 64.1 67.2 58.0 46.8 37.8 46.9 21.2 35.5 41.3 52.9 59.5 59.7 58.8 65.5 54.1 54.9 48.5 47.7 46.4 51.2 43.1 42.4
Debt Payment 41.9 48.6 45.1 30.8 40.2 37.3 40.0 34.6 36.1 36.9 42.3 36.1 42.1 48.9 44.1 35.7 37.5 40.3 38.3 40.4 32.7 30.8 36.9
Investment 46.3 48.7 54.5 53.4 40.7 38.6 39.3 10.9 38.8 45.8 50.2 47.5 47.8 46.8 47.8 44.1 45.5 45.6 47.5 48.3 39.6 38.6 38.5
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle 22.4 25.0 30.2 28.6 21.0 17.6 23.9 40.7 12.7 13.7 29.7 33.9 33.0 35.8 33.9 31.0 32.6 23.9 20.9 25.3 23.0 24.0 20.6
Purchase of House 8.2 35.9 29.6 14.1 27.4 15.9 25.0 34.2 14.2 11.5 22.5 26.8 28.8 29.3 27.8 27.7 25.1 25.4 20.3 28.4 26.2 22.6 24.6
Savings
10. Percentage of Respondents by Educational Attainment
Primary School 8.1 4.9 7.6 8.8 5.9 6.5 6.0 4.1 6.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.5 3.3 4.2 3.8 5.9 3.4 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.1
Junior School 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.9 2.7 5.5 7.6 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.4
Senior School 20.6 17.2 22.8 22.9 17.1 17.4 16.5 21.4 19.9 19.8 17.3 15.0 14.3 14.2 14.9 13.7 15.3 15.1 17.4 14.4 17.6 17.6 14.9
Higher non-university education 32.3 36.2 31.6 29.2 32.6 33.2 31.2 32.6 35.6 29.5 34.1 33.0 29.6 30.7 30.0 30.2 28.6 31.3 28.3 28.5 30.3 31.1 31.1
University 31.7 34.7 32.4 31.0 36.9 34.4 37.1 36.3 31.0 35.0 37.8 39.8 44.6 44.8 45.0 46.2 43.3 44.5 41.1 45.1 41.5 40.4 42.7
None 3.1 2.3 1.5 3.4 2.7 3.8 3.3 2.9 1.3 3.7 2.7 4.7 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.8 4.4 2.2 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.8 3.8
11. Total Sample Households and Response Rate
Number of Sample Households 1800.0 1085.0 1085.0 1085.0 1160.0 1550.0 1410.0 1400.0 1400.0 1400.0 1400.0 1800.0 1950.0 1850.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1850.0 1850.0 1900.0 1900.0
Number of Respondents 1543.0 981.0 963.0 911.0 875.0 1339.0 1342.0 1376.0 1373.0 1365.0 1315.0 1755.0 1929.0 1827.0 1923.0 1941.0 1941.0 1948.0 1938.0 1845.0 1844.0 1895.0 1882.0
Response Rate 85.7 90.4 88.8 84.0 75.4 86.4 95.2 98.3 98.1 97.5 93.9 97.5 98.9 98.8 98.6 99.5 99.5 99.9 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-10.0 -12.4 -1.9 -3.0 -10.3 -24.2 -28.2 -29.8 -29.4 -17.0 -10.5 1.0 -6.4 -6.3 1.5 9.7 4.8 1.2 3.8 3.3
27.1 27.0 29.6 23.9 30.0 20.3 17.8 15.9 17.5 21.3 19.0 28.1 20.8 16.2 24.7 33.2 26.3 20.9 22.8 19.7
35.0 40.1 44.1 41.5 40.9 33.5 32.1 29.9 27.2 34.2 34.8 34.4 28.5 21.2 30.1 28.4 38.5 30.5 31.5 30.2
-10.0 -13.7 5.3 5.3 -8.5 -23.2 -30.8 -31.8 -29.5 -9.7 1.7 -4.3 -16.9 -14.3 -6.5 6.3 -7.0 -8.0 -5.8 -8.0
-16.3 -18.1 -15.4 -17.2 -22.8 -28.5 -31.9 -30.5 -31.6 -26.0 -28.0 -5.6 -7.1 -7.0 -0.5 9.0 7.2 4.5 6.3 7.0
-3.8 -5.2 4.5 2.8 0.4 -21.0 -21.7 -27.1 -27.2 -15.5 -5.1 12.8 4.9 2.4 11.5 13.9 14.1 6.9 10.9 11.1
21.8 35.5 41.3 38.3 32.2 23.4 18.6 21.3 8.7 29.4 25.7 30.5 25.5 19.1 27.5 34.7 26.6 21.5 21.7 16.3
10.0 15.8 21.0 13.3 13.0 3.7 2.0 -3.8 -6.4 4.4 9.3 18.8 11.1 8.3 17.6 28.3 20.2 15.4 18.1 16.8
49.5 29.7 26.4 20.1 44.8 33.7 32.7 30.3 50.3 30.0 21.9 35.0 25.7 21.3 29.1 36.5 32.1 25.6 28.5 26.0
29.8 40.3 47.1 46.0 43.8 31.1 27.2 27.7 19.9 33.6 31.2 32.7 28.8 22.1 32.9 31.7 36.4 26.6 24.3 21.1
16.4 23.9 27.8 20.3 21.2 9.9 8.4 1.6 0.4 8.8 12.8 26.0 19.7 12.4 21.8 25.7 34.7 27.0 29.6 29.7
58.8 56.2 57.6 58.1 57.9 59.5 60.6 60.4 61.2 60.2 60.5 44.6 37.1 29.0 35.5 27.7 44.5 37.8 40.7 39.8
40.0 39.8 44.1 40.3 42.6 36.1 36.2 34.4 33.1 38.2 40.4 40.3 34.3 32.0 35.1 46.1 28.7 29.5 30.3 29.7
48.1 47.4 52.3 51.4 50.2 39.5 39.1 36.4 36.4 42.3 47.4 39.8 36.4 33.6 37.0 49.6 36.6 38.6 41.8 40.4
36.8 37.0 41.2 36.0 39.5 34.5 35.5 34.3 32.2 37.4 39.1 43.3 34.6 33.3 36.0 46.6 26.5 25.6 25.7 25.0
35.2 35.1 39.0 33.4 38.1 34.2 34.0 32.6 30.7 34.9 34.7 37.8 31.8 29.0 32.3 42.1 23.1 24.3 23.4 23.6
48.1 51.1 54.7 50.1 51.8 46.9 47.5 44.6 43.4 48.0 47.0 53.8 45.5 42.6 46.4 40.7 39.5 37.5 36.2 36.5
58.2 62.0 63.9 60.1 60.6 54.9 54.2 50.8 50.2 54.4 56.6 58.9 48.6 48.6 53.5 48.3 52.7 50.0 48.4 49.3
43.6 46.2 50.6 46.9 48.6 44.0 44.6 41.7 39.9 45.4 43.2 53.8 46.1 41.9 44.5 33.2 35.1 32.1 31.0 30.7
42.4 45.1 49.8 43.4 46.2 41.7 43.6 41.2 40.1 44.2 41.3 48.8 41.9 37.4 41.3 40.5 30.9 30.4 29.2 29.7
20.5 14.1 12.5 11.3 10.0 17.1 20.5 18.1 21.3 19.1 19.2 33.4 34.6 30.2 35.7 30.4 18.7 21.3 24.2 25.7
6.7 -16.0 -5.1 -6.5 3.0 1.6 5.3 3.5 8.9 -1.5 -6.4 9.1 5.5 -0.2 1.2 -6.3 -3.1 -3.6 -5.5 -5.5
-13.4 7.4 12.4 10.9 -1.7 2.8 -5.2 -2.2 -8.2 7.5 7.0 14.1 11.1 1.2 5.1 19.3 3.2 -4.1 0.7 0.0
27.7 14.0 12.4 10.4 20.2 16.3 18.1 21.7 26.3 18.3 15.9 2.5 5.8 0.4 2.7 0.3 10.4 13.5 21.1 16.9
20.5 14.1 12.5 11.3 10.0 17.1 20.5 18.1 21.3 19.1 19.2 24.2 26.6 23.3 25.0 29.3 13.1 16.6 21.8 21.0
6.7 -16.0 -5.1 -6.5 3.0 1.6 5.3 3.5 8.9 -1.5 -6.4 3.7 1.9 -1.2 -2.6 5.0 -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 -6.3
-13.4 7.4 12.4 10.9 -1.7 2.8 -5.2 -2.2 -8.2 7.5 7.0 30.9 24.1 15.0 16.4 6.6 20.7 11.9 13.9 16.5
18.8 11.1 6.6 5.6 7.7 7.2 8.1 8.4 9.4 8.0 8.3 19.7 16.2 13.2 16.7 13.3 15.9** 19.3 25.0 17.0
41.6 22.9 20.0 17.6 33.1 27.1 24.4 22.4 39.7 15.6 9.3 10.5 19.3 17.4 14.3 28.0 17.4 12.0 25.3 30.8
34.1 20.1 26.7 24.5 34.0 28.4 36.0 36.6 40.7 34.0 32.8 32.4 33.4 33.1 28.2 4.8 26.1 28.4 37.7 27.3
30.8 15.1 19.6 19.2 29.6 24.8 27.6 36.3 40.9 32.0 28.8 24.9 28.2 29.2 26.8 5.7 -7.3 1.8 3.0 -2.0
19.1 14.8 13.4 12.1 22.3 17.1 16.8 29.0 32.1 18.1 16.5 2.6 7.0 8.6 14.4 8.0 25.7 29.9 41.7 28.7
12.4 3.7 7.2 -0.8 15.6 10.2 18.0 21.5 32.8 21.2 18.9 15.4 15.6 16.1 19.0 23.6 6.7 11.6 4.1 -2.2
34.7 12.6 14.4 19.4 42.4 31.9 25.5 36.0 39.5 29.1 26.1 26.4 25.2 25.7 26.6 18.9 14.4 19.9 22.2 16.9
47.5 29.9 32.7 28.8 39.6 38.1 40.0 45.7 47.3 39.7 31.7 26.0 25.4 22.8 22.0 31.1 11.1 15.7 11.9 4.3
24.7 10.2 14.7 4.0 25.6 18.1 28.9 33.4 42.1 29.5 26.9 26.4 31.7 27.7 32.7 -3.9 16.4 20.5 29.3 16.3
27.3 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 3.6 -4.1 3.9 16.1 19.0 21.2 25.4 15.1
32.8 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.4 -3.2 2.9 6.9 14.3 17.7 24.2 15.7
15.9 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 9.7 3.0 12.6 9.9 15.7 22.3 31.4 18.9
11.7 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 9.7 7.0 15.4 14.7 20.9 22.6 30.5 21.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.2 -1.7 -11.5 -1.9 8.4 26.3 27.4 38.9 29.7
2.6 2.4 2.6 3.7 2.1 5.0 3.1 3.2 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.2 17.2 18.5 18.9 6.7 20.3 19.0 19.3 19.7
3.6 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 5.8 2.4 6.4 7.2 6.8 16.2 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.9
19.4 16.6 15.8 16.4 14.9 17.2 16.7 14.3 16.7 15.5 18.0 15.6 23.8 24.9 26.8 29.1 27.0 26.6 27.8 26.9
30.7 30.3 29.9 28.4 31.3 28.2 29.9 30.5 29.6 27.6 29.7 25.3 16.6 14.9 14.8 22.9 10.3 9.7 11.7 10.7
41.0 45.9 46.1 45.9 47.6 43.1 45.4 46.8 45.2 47.3 41.8 53.6 17.7 15.2 14.8 22.0 7.1 8.7 7.3 8.6
2.6 2.2 2.7 2.4 1.4 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.0 18.3 19.5 17.9 3.1 29.7 30.5 28.9 29.3
1900.0 1900.0 1900.0 1900.0 1900.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 1950.0 2070.0 2070.0 1770.0 1770.0 2006.0 2006.0 2070.0 2070.0
1893.0 1886.0 1880.0 1884.0 1882.0 1944.0 1937.0 1940.0 1947.0 1950.0 1926.0 1948.0 1729.0 1664.0 1716.0 1755.0 1996.0 2004.0 2035.0 2067.0
99.6 99.3 98.9 99.2 99.1 99.7 99.3 99.5 99.8 100.0 98.8 99.9 83.5 80.4 96.9 99.2 99.5 99.9 98.3 99.9
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Table E.2.1.1: Consumer Expectations Survey - North Central
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1. Zonal Consumer Outlook: Composite Index
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -14.3 -10.2 5.4 3.9 -11.4 6.9 16.1 9.8 10.6 -2.8 6.9 2.7 -7.0 -4.8 -11.8 -1.7 -9.3 -0.5 -4.5
Next Quarter 22.1 31.1 43.0 39.4 23.4 33.6 56.2 41.7 59.8 42.3 36.8 36.0 28.2 30.4 17.2 37.7 29.4 35.9 29.5
Next 12 months 27.8 32.7 38.2 39.4 10.1 18.7 55.1 35.9 63.0 42.7 31.2 34.5 23.5 31.9 26.4 32.5 27.0 35.9 33.2
2. Consumer outlook indices on the current economic and family condition: Current Quarter
Economic Condition -30.3 -17.9 -1.6 11.5 -8.5 19.2 15.7 9.4 16.2 4.7 0.6 -19.6 -8.2 -6.9 -11.9 3.0 -7.1 1.2 2.1
Under N 20,000 per month -24.6 -7.0 -8.3 14.2 -13.3 6.7 15.3 4.1 3.3 4.2 0.9 -37.5 -8.4 5.3 -21.4 -16.9 -43.6 -4.2 -6.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -37.0 -21.7 0.6 -0.9 -10.4 26.4 5.3 5.0 16.8 7.5 0.5 -17.9 -1.6 -12.4 -15.2 1.7 -2.1 12.6 0.9
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -38.3 -25.9 6.3 23.9 0.0 20.4 29.8 28.0 38.3 4.4 -2.8 -8.2 -8.5 -10.8 7.1 25.0 9.1 2.3 0.9
Over N 100,000 per month -33.3 -18.2 8.3 38.9 -20.0 18.0 12.5 2.8 4.5 -1.7 12.5 -11.4 -19.8 -4.2 -18.8 -8.1 -10.9 -11.4 12.7
Family Financial Situation -12.4 -17.9 -3.2 -7.5 17.8 -18.7 -10.8 -9.7 -29.5 -23.7 5.6 -0.2 -12.8 -13.7 -22.6 -22.1 -18.9 -19.1 -12.7
Under N 20,000 per month 11.4 -24.5 -13.9 -3.3 3.3 -25.6 0.0 -27.6 -52.2 -29.2 4.6 -5.6 -27.9 -17.4 -29.8 -30.2 -33.6 -18.1 -41.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 19.2 -8.0 3.6 -7.1 31.3 11.5 -17.8 -7.8 -39.1 -24.7 14.0 -2.9 -7.3 -16.4 -28.9 -26.9 -27.5 -30.4 -14.5
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 13.8 -5.0 4.2 -13.0 25.9 -25.5 -9.7 4.9 -15.0 -36.0 -8.3 19.9 -9.1 -18.8 -2.4 -13.5 -9.6 -13.6 -11.7
Over N 100,000 per month 20.0 2.5 0.0 -22.2 -35.0 -14.0 -8.3 -2.8 -4.5 8.3 -31.3 -21.4 -9.5 0.7 -28.6 -14.0 -6.5 -10.0 10.7
Family Income -0.4 5.1 20.9 7.5 -43.5 20.2 43.5 29.8 45.2 10.7 14.6 27.7 0.0 6.1 -0.8 14.0 -2.0 16.3 -2.9
Under N 20,000 per month 19.2 0.0 18.1 10.0 -6.7 17.8 38.9 28.6 28.3 19.4 13.0 34.7 -2.6 -2.7 7.1 -10.5 -34.5 4.8 -27.6
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -16.4 13.1 30.1 -8.9 -62.5 25.7 44.7 30.0 53.5 13.7 17.0 35.8 11.4 4.0 -11.4 17.9 0.0 26.2 -1.8
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -23.3 -20.7 12.5 39.1 -63.0 8.2 56.5 46.3 56.7 1.8 16.7 20.5 -6.1 4.2 3.5 31.7 13.5 9.1 5.6
Over N 100,000 per month 13.3 27.3 -8.3 11.1 0.0 32.0 12.5 -5.6 9.1 10.0 -12.5 0.0 -11.1 2.3 3.6 9.3 -2.9 24.3 2.7
3. Consumer outlook indices on economic and family condition: Next Quarter
Economic Condition 7.4 18.4 18.9 39.3 24.3 39.7 42.4 32.3 49.8 37.6 9.9 26.3 17.0 21.3 -21.2 25.4 16.3 35.3 29.7
Under N 20,000 per month 9.9 20.2 19.8 37.0 5.6 24.4 30.4 21.6 48.1 17.4 0.0 12.8 18.0 -1.7 9.3 -19.7 -54.4 13.9 -1.0
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 4.1 10.3 13.0 1.7 19.0 52.8 36.1 40.0 53.1 44.3 -1.5 24.3 14.6 18.9 12.2 27.6 23.5 48.1 21.1
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 6.3 40.9 25.9 31.5 31.0 56.4 56.7 39.0 50.0 36.6 34.0 30.2 19.3 29.8 25.5 47.5 23.2 37.2 37.7
Over N 100,000 per month 15.6 16.7 35.3 0.0 68.8 26.7 40.6 33.3 28.1 40.2 23.5 35.4 17.3 28.9 28.4 39.7 35.4 32.9 44.9
Family Financial Situation 13.8 18.8 33.0 10.8 -35.6 21.3 49.0 18.2 50.5 22.0 23.2 24.3 6.4 12.0 2.0 22.8 8.4 23.1 8.3
Under N 20,000 per month -20.2 19.2 28.8 23.9 -22.2 8.9 30.4 3.9 57.7 39.1 21.9 23.4 7.8 31.0 8.0 5.3 2.2 26.2 4.2
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month -4.6 22.5 37.0 21.7 -58.6 22.5 48.2 9.4 51.8 27.9 18.2 28.4 11.7 -1.0 -12.8 39.3 4.1 26.2 0.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -6.5 12.1 41.4 29.6 -23.8 17.0 65.0 48.8 50.0 11.3 38.0 37.5 -8.4 10.1 6.1 23.2 10.5 26.5 2.5
Over N100,000 per month 0.0 0.0 11.8 13.3 -12.5 43.3 34.4 28.6 31.3 22.0 17.6 -10.4 12.8 15.8 8.8 16.2 13.5 13.4 27.0
Family Income 45.0 56.1 77.0 68.2 81.6 39.9 77.2 74.7 79.2 67.4 77.3 57.3 61.2 58.0 70.7 64.9 63.6 49.4 50.6
Under N20,000 per month 58.7 40.4 79.2 47.8 94.4 55.6 78.3 62.7 57.7 52.2 71.9 70.2 48.4 46.6 74.7 68.4 55.6 52.5 39.6
Over N 100,000 per month 62.5 33.3 64.7 86.7 87.5 30.0 62.5 38.1 81.3 82.9 35.3 75.0 57.7 56.8 74.1 57.4 65.2 54.9 34.8
4. Consumer outlook indices on economic and family condition: Next 12 Months
Economic Condition 15.9 28.3 25.1 45.0 6.6 44.8 50.6 37.6 60.6 37.3 14.7 34.2 10.9 22.5 22.6 23.9 14.2 24.4 26.1
Under N 20,000 per month 10.6 28.4 21.4 15.1 -9.1 31.4 11.1 14.8 44.4 50.0 5.3 25.0 7.7 19.4 -2.2 -13.9 -9.3 7.9 -1.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 7.1 23.5 8.7 -7.0 -27.3 48.1 51.9 38.3 57.1 26.8 -2.7 27.0 -1.4 11.9 10.9 18.8 -1.6 30.0 7.1
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 28.1 45.8 33.3 7.4 26.0 48.7 63.4 32.0 71.4 38.2 26.6 37.5 19.9 22.5 32.5 37.3 21.5 27.2 32.6
Over N 100,000 per month 40.9 28.3 44.0 -32.1 30.6 50.0 43.1 56.8 69.6 43.8 53.8 46.6 18.2 32.2 35.4 35.6 25.2 26.4 42.9
Family Financial Situation 9.0 14.8 29.3 23.0 4.0 1.6 52.0 20.7 61.2 22.9 19.2 1.7 -1.1 12.0 -4.0 17.1 7.5 24.0 6.6
Under N 20,000 per month 15.3 -7.9 3.6 18.6 -36.4 16.3 27.8 18.5 66.7 58.3 0.0 44.7 -7.7 11.1 -15.6 -7.4 -3.7 24.6 -3.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -0.9 20.6 14.5 21.1 -63.6 27.8 50.6 5.2 61.0 32.1 24.2 -8.0 -3.6 -8.2 -15.8 18.8 -6.6 27.8 -11.2
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 8.6 24.5 43.1 38.2 -8.0 25.6 62.7 32.0 71.4 20.8 16.1 -7.7 -4.1 6.9 -2.8 15.5 14.0 10.9 8.9
Over N 100,000 per month 29.4 0.0 54.8 7.1 -16.7 41.9 47.2 36.4 39.1 8.9 23.1 6.9 9.4 22.6 12.6 32.2 15.0 31.5 23.4
Family Income 58.4 55.1 60.3 50.4 19.8 9.6 62.6 49.6 67.3 67.9 59.9 67.7 60.6 61.1 60.6 56.4 59.4 59.4 66.9
Under N 20,000 per month 57.9 57.9 58.9 32.6 40.9 10.0 52.8 53.7 50.0 45.8 65.8 71.1 42.3 54.2 54.5 63.0 48.1 52.6 57.4
Over N 100,000 per month 55.7 79.2 54.8 35.7 11.1 66.1 63.9 47.7 76.1 74.1 46.2 67.2 64.1 60.4 62.5 52.2 66.4 64.4 71.0
Table E.2.1.1: Consumer Expectations Survey - North Central
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5. Confidence Index on Amount of Expenditures: Next 12 months
Average 0.8 6.8 22.1 26.2 31.3 35.4 36.2 19.5 24.9 27.8 7.6 22.5 17.7 14.1 21.0 26.7 7.1 24.3 16.7
Food & Other household needs 58.4 55.1 60.3 68.2 19.8 9.6 62.6 49.6 67.3 67.9 59.9 67.7 60.6 61.1 60.6 56.4 59.4 59.4 66.9
Education 38.5 40.3 52.6 50.7 56.6 29.5 60.3 38.0 63.6 66.9 61.9 29.0 58.7 56.8 59.2 56.7 57.7 62.1 52.1
Debt Payment -4.1 -19.7 23.1 17.6 47.5 36.0 18.5 13.7 8.8 10.2 7.1 23.9 6.0 -6.0 -4.7 2.8 -8.9 14.1 0.9
Medical Expenses 3.5 6.7 33.6 59.4 54.6 40.0 22.2 8.1 16.7 19.7 22.5 40.9 15.3 2.4 11.3 4.3 -2.2 18.3 0.4
Savings -15.0 1.6 19.9 -0.7 10.5 82.5 40.7 25.7 20.8 28.9 4.8 27.7 28.4 24.5 30.6 39.4 15.9 31.7 22.3
Purchase of Appliances -18.0 4.0 17.1 39.9 55.3 50.5 33.3 9.2 17.2 22.2 -11.5 11.2 1.7 1.7 13.9 21.25 -8.1 16.1 6.9
Investment -12.5 -0.7 27.0 0.6 42.7 57.5 36.6 24.8 18.3 21.2 -2.5 16.5 20.8 15.9 24.2 30.4 14.4 25.8 8.0
Purchase of Consumer durables 4.3 27.6 0.0 0.0 17.7 24.0 33.8 23.8 23.9 36.3 2.3 26.0 28.4 15.5 24.8 34.9 9.4 32.6 16.6
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -21.8 -17.6 26.3 29.0 25.7 1.5 21.1 3.1 4.3 4.8 -21.7 -8.4 -8.3 -10.6 -2.5 10.7 -24.9 3.3 1.4
Purchase of House -15.5 -17.3 -28.1 23.0 38.9 16.5 27.8 11.4 10.2 9.7 -17.5 -2.6 -10.6 -10.7 -0.2 15.3 -26.2 -0.1 -2.4
Others -9.3 -4.9 12.0 0.0 -25.1 42.0 41.9 7.6 22.9 18.2 -21.3 15.5 -5.8 4.5 13.7 21.4 -8.3 4.6 11.0
Buying Conditions Index 40.8 41.2 45.3 46.2 60.8 57.8 58.6 58.3 55.7 45.9 48.1 52.9 43.6 38.6 48.2 49.5 36.5 52.0 39.0
Consumer Durables 49.8 52.6 60.5 53.8 71.8 69.5 71.8 64.9 72.6 55.4 57.3 63.9 50.0 51.2 74.8 57.0 49.0 58.2 48.6
Motor Vehicle 45.9 36.5 36.0 42.1 55.3 51.5 51.4 52.0 46.1 43.1 45.7 49.6 43.1 34.6 37.3 45.7 30.3 51.0 33.7
House & Lot 26.6 34.7 39.5 42.8 55.3 52.5 52.5 57.9 48.3 39.2 41.4 45.3 37.7 29.9 32.4 45.9 30.3 46.8 34.8
Buying Intentions Index 40.1 45.4 46.6 51.4 63.5 55.5 62.0 56.9 63.9 55.8 53.9 54.4 47.8 45.9 54.6 55.1 44.5 57.3 46.9
Consumer Durables 54.5 57.4 64.7 61.5 65.1 60.7 76.0 60.4 80.6 61.5 59.6 50.9 49.5 54.2 74.0 58.6 53.8 62.0 53.3
Motor Vehicle 30.8 41.5 36.8 45.6 56.9 50.9 55.0 56.5 55.4 53.8 51.2 56.5 49.0 43.9 45.8 54.9 40.5 56.5 44.9
House & Lot 35.0 37.4 38.2 47.0 68.4 54.8 54.9 53.9 55.6 52.2 51.0 55.9 44.9 39.6 43.9 51.8 39.2 53.4 42.4
Unemployment Rate Index 42.2 16.35 46.4 43.9 2.6 40.2 38.0 27.0 41.8 25.8 38.2 7.0 33.3 33.0 30.6 37.6 39.2 26.3 24.0
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 16.5 2.0 1.5 35.1 17.1 6.2 15.1 7.6 -11.2 12.3 20.7 2.0 31.0 17.4 25.0 23.4 27.5 18.3 7.1
Exchange Rate -2.4 0.5 -0.5 -12.9 -4.0 11.4 35.4 8.6 37.2 11.7 0.5 11.0 -4.9 -12.5 -21.3 5.2 -9.5 4.3 10.0
Change in Price Index 43.9 36.5 37.4 34.3 41.8 37.5 51.9 35.5 50.9 52.3 46.0 36.5 51.0 54.8 55.6 43.4 47.1 37.6 42.7
9. Sectors Contribution to price changes over the next 12 months
Food 51.2 55.6 67.6 54.8 88.2 31.6 64.2 61.7 75.5 58.7 75.2 45.3 54.8 59.7 73.6 59.9 56.3 50.9 45.1
Clothing & Footwaer 52.6 52.1 31.4 41.3 61.9 45.1 61.1 51.5 56.9 66.3 72.2 48.4 55.6 53.7 57.7 51.9 55.8 34.0 41.1
Electricity 54.6 29.1 22.6 25.0 29.0 35.2 34.9 23.2 43.6 61.2 67.2 52.7 60.9 57.8 58.3 49.5 55.3 43.1 42.6
Water 13.4 27.0 27.8 19.0 46.1 18.7 30.8 12.1 23.4 23.5 41.0 35.7 49.9 45.5 44.5 31.3 33.9 26.3 31.1
House Rent 77.6 59.7 54.5 52.0 72.4 67.4 77.2 67.7 59.6 81.1 52.5 50.0 71.3 72.9 77.0 63.2 68.0 53.7 60.3
Transportation 76.7 60.2 84.3 37.8 36.9 36.8 63.1 39.4 52.7 66.8 46.5 39.0 61.4 61.4 66.1 48.2 54.3 47.4 58.6
Communication 35.4 30.6 17.8 35.1 21.0 30.0 27.2 13.1 50.0 23.9 21.7 18.3 31.6 40.0 34.2 30.5 25.4 16.6 33.1
Education 52.2 34.7 38.2 49.4 39.4 63.3 63.6 51.6 55.9 69.4 53.0 44.6 55.7 61.7 61.5 46.7 51.8 50.0 40.6
Medical Care 49.8 32.6 28.3 46.7 47.4 45.6 64.1 32.4 50.6 63.7 48.0 40.6 52.4 58.3 60.4 48.7 59.6 39.1 39.4
Personal Care 26.1 13.8 7.3 18.9 26.3 27.0 47 28.3 53.2 33.7 24.7 21.0 38.8 52.9 43.6 29.1 36.1 27.7 38.0
Hotel & Restaurant 36.8 31.1 41.4 21.0 27.6 38.8 48.0 24.7 57.9 42.8 25.3 24.0 45.8 59.7 54.6 36.2 42.8 39.7 54.3
Others 0.0 11.8 27.2 10.8 5.2 10.4 41.9 20.2 31.9 36.3 24.2 18.4 33.6 33.4 35.9 25.6 25.7 22.2 27.7
Primary School 7.9 2.6 4.7 8.8 6.6 3.1 1.0 2.0 1.6 1.0 2.0 5.0 1.4 0.9 1.4 2.3 0.3 3.4 1.7
Junior School 1.7 3.1 1.6 4.7 25.0 4.1 6.6 4.5 1.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.7 2.9
Senior School 16.8 9.2 27.7 21.6 19.7 14.0 12.1 15.7 16.5 14.3 34.0 15.0 9.9 12.9 13.8 16.8 10.7 17.7 18.3
Higher non-university education 41.2 51.0 34.0 35.8 26.3 34.7 44.9 38.4 53.7 37.2 68.0 42.7 32.5 27.1 24.7 27.4 28.3 32.0 28.6
University 22.3 31.6 28.8 25.0 22.4 43.5 35.4 39.4 26.6 45.4 90.0 32.0 52.2 53.1 55.2 48.1 58.1 42.3 43.7
None 8.6 2.6 3.1 4.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.7 1.7 4.3 3.7 3.7 2.6 2.3 4.9
Number of Sample Households 300 200 200 200 100 300.0 200 200 200 200 200 300 350 350 350 350 350 350 350
Number of Respondents 291 196 191 148 76 243 198 200 188 196 198 300 345 350 350 350 346 350 350
Response Rate 97.0 98.0 95.5 74.0 76.0 81.0 99.0 100.0 94.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 98.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.9 100.0 100.0
2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-6.3 3.9 -4.3 0.8 -12.5 -14.6 -5.5 -7.4 -15.2 -26.8 -29.7 -23.5
29.2 40.2 30.1 30.1 28.1 31.0 32.4 26.6 29.2 21.6 15.3 16.0
28.0 35.4 32.8 41.7 37.4 45.1 44.6 40.2 39.6 30.4 26.8 29.9
-3.6 10.1 11.3 3.2 -4.4 -16.1 7.0 3.1 -8.7 -20.7 -27.4 -16.0
-39.1 -13.2 3.1 -5.3 -19.3 -15.3 -4.4 0.9 2.1 -22.1 -20.7 -9.3
-6.7 11.7 15.3 -0.4 -2.8 -13.1 11.6 2.7 1.4 -15.8 -25.7 -21.3
23.8 25.4 12.0 0.0 1.5 -13.5 17.6 6.7 -26.7 -25.6 -37.5 -12.2
-3.4 -4.1 21.9 27.6 1.4 -24.0 2.8 0.0 -13.2 -23.3 -25.6 -23.4
-9.7 -13.3 -31.7 -10.1 -26.0 -22.3 -22.7 -22.2 -24.5 -33.4 -37.0 -32.7
-36.4 -35.1 -46.0 -15.8 -34.3 -31.7 -21.4 -36.6 -38.0 -44.2 -49.4 -44.8
-8.7 -11.7 -32.4 -18.4 -25.0 -24.7 -34.3 -21.7 -28.4 -32.0 -33.6 -27.0
5.8 -9.2 -16.7 5.8 -17.8 -14.0 -3.5 -19.2 -16.9 -23.9 -35.0 -21.3
-8.6 -2.0 -14.1 -12.2 -37.1 -24.0 -22.6 -16.2 -13.2 -36.0 -25.6 -46.8
-5.5 14.9 7.4 9.3 -7.1 -5.4 -0.9 -2.9 -12.4 -26.3 -24.8 -21.9
-41.8 -10.5 -2.7 -21.1 -38.6 -14.5 4.4 -12.5 5.6 -31.4 -34.5 -39.5
-3.4 12.9 12.2 9.6 -3.5 12.1 -9.9 -3.5 -13.8 -13.5 -16.4 -15.7
9.3 34.5 22.7 7.0 19.8 -5.1 16.9 1.0 -19.8 -23.9 -22.5 -5.3
0.0 2.0 -12.5 51.0 -37.1 -23.9 -11.3 0.0 -20.8 -60.5 -34.1 -38.3
14.2 35.6 28.3 36.4 25.0 44.9 45.7 39.0 36.9 23.1 14.8 20.2
-52.1 -11.0 11.2 -15.4 -14.6 23.1 26.7 3.3 21.3 2.6 2.3 0.0
21.5 42.1 29.1 35.6 32.1 56.7 54.7 45.2 33.8 24.1 5.9 17.9
18.4 45.6 28.2 53.4 31.3 47.2 48.9 36.7 41.2 22.4 22.5 28.3
37.5 33.3 57.6 49.3 29.0 45.3 48.4 52.9 45.3 46.2 35.1 36.3
9.5 18.9 14.0 16.9 13.1 18.2 23.7 14.0 6.8 -0.6 -5.5 4.4
-6.4 26.8 21.4 19.2 12.5 16.7 34.7 20.0 5.6 9.2 0.0 9.1
5.7 7.4 3.0 4.8 8.0 25.3 10.4 12.5 10.8 0.0 -15.1 -4.8
7.8 24.4 15.3 8.8 14.8 18.2 34.8 17.4 10.3 -19.8 2.0 9.1
27.6 21.2 30.4 43.7 24.0 13.5 17.2 8.1 -2.4 15.2 -5.3 6.5
63.9 66.2 48.0 37.0 46.3 30.1 27.8 26.7 44.0 42.3 36.7 23.5
40.4 48.8 62.4 51.9 56.3 27.8 23.0 26.7 37.0 55.3 35.9 24.7
74.0 68.5 50.7 51.5 54.7 32.0 42.5 25.0 37.3 42.0 32.5 17.9
60.2 68.7 43.5 24.8 40.9 28.2 28.3 16.5 42.3 41.7 42.2 19.2
67.1 68.2 21.7 26.8 26.0 32.3 7.9 41.9 60.0 28.8 36.8 38.7
14.0 35.3 30.0 38.6 34.6 47.2 53.1 46.9 48.5 34.6 24.8 31.8
-9.7 -1.9 17.1 6.1 25.0 38.2 45.2 33.3 34.4 21.6 18.1 19.6
5.0 15.2 15.6 18.3 12.0 35.3 41.8 33.2 40.2 21.4 20.5 18.6
20.1 49.6 37.9 32.7 36.6 54.5 58.4 52.3 49.5 39.2 26.6 48.0
25.6 44.5 61.9 70.8 62.8 51.3 62.9 58.5 61.2 59.6 36.6 38.8
8.9 15.1 11.8 19.3 13.3 22.9 27.8 16.6 11.5 -2.3 -7.3 -1.5
-22.9 -3.8 7.1 0.0 -5.9 21.1 21.2 12.1 17.8 0.0 -19.0 0.0
-8.9 -6.7 0.0 10.0 -4.2 10.3 11.0 2.0 11.5 -10.5 -10.3 -7.3
19.7 18.1 24.0 11.9 14.4 29.4 34.0 17.8 6.4 2.9 -6.3 -1.0
26.7 32.8 22.0 39.6 41.0 25.6 41.3 30.2 14.3 2.7 5.6 5.0
61.2 55.9 56.7 67.2 64.3 65.1 52.8 57.0 58.8 58.9 63.0 59.3
61.1 40.4 39.3 45.5 19.1 67.6 43.1 60.6 47.8 47.1 54.3 50.9
57.4 51.7 57.4 55.6 51.0 61.5 48.9 45.9 63.8 51.2 62.8 60.0
66.0 62.5 61.6 71.3 72.2 64.2 54.0 62.6 67.9 66.2 64.6 61.9
58.9 55.9 67.8 80.3 85.9 67.2 60.9 60.4 49.5 69.9 68.3 61.3
2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
9.7 13.4 15.2 18.9 9.4 19.1 16.2 11.0 18.3 13.6 18.0 20.8
61.2 55.9 56.7 67.2 64.3 65.1 52.8 57.0 58.8 58.9 63.0 59.3
55.7 55.9 54.4 65.2 53.1 56.0 48.5 55.7 58.0 53.6 58.3 54.1
-3.2 -9.5 0.3 -4.0 -6.3 -6.5 0.3 -3.8 10.0 -4.4 7.1 7.7
-1.7 -5.9 12.7 7.8 -3.4 -6.3 6.6 2.6 11.9 -0.1 14.3 19.8
16.2 27.4 23.4 30.4 19.3 33.6 28.8 18.3 27.3 17.9 19.2 22.5
0.0 5.9 -1.3 6.1 -4.0 3.3 5.4 -7.6 3.2 -4.0 3.4 13.3
10.5 11.3 20.4 15.0 1.9 22.9 24.6 9.2 22.6 22.0 13.2 17.4
11.3 21.0 15.7 22.4 11.3 21.4 15.4 16.1 27.9 10.0 26.8 24.5
-18.7 -9.0 -10.1 -1.8 -18.7 0.2 -9.1 -14.2 -4.1 -2.7 -5.3 5.5
-17.5 -7.7 -6.0 -1.4 -15.9 4.9 -3.6 -13.7 -10.6 -4.4 -3.7 0.4
-7.2 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.7 15.3 8.7 1.9 -3.4 2.9 1.8 3.8
39.6 44.4 43.9 42.4 38.5 43.6 41.7 37.8 41.5 31.5 36.3 40.5
47.3 57.4 53.7 54.7 46.4 47.3 49.6 48.5 43.8 36.9 37.6 39.1
36.0 39.5 39.4 35.5 34.8 42.3 39.1 33.1 41.2 28.9 36.6 41.8
35.6 36.2 38.6 37.1 34.4 41.3 36.5 31.7 39.6 28.8 34.8 40.5
47.2 49.9 48.5 49.9 44.6 58.1 52.4 48.6 51.7 41.9 45.6 49.1
54.5 57.6 55.9 59.6 56.6 61.6 63.8 58.3 55.8 48.9 46.4 49.3
44.0 46.9 45.1 45.3 38.7 56.5 48.1 44.7 53.8 39.5 46.9 49.6
43.1 45.3 44.6 44.7 38.5 56.2 45.4 43.0 45.6 37.4 43.4 48.5
29.7 28.1 40.3 18.6 10.4 10.1 15.2 8.3 13.1 26.9 27.0 26.6
15.5 2.0 17.5 10.6 4.6 -14.7 -10.1 -8.3 1.2 2.6 3.5 5.8
-9.5 18.6 -0.6 4.2 -1.4 18.6 13.4 11.8 -8.8 3.7 -10.5 -0.9
45.8 45.5 41.9 39.0 29.6 19.1 21.0 19.3 26.5 27.0 32.3 25.1
60.7 63.9 54.6 44.7 47.4 33.8 28.4 28.2 28.6 41.7 25.8 15.7
56.2 53.7 48.0 50.3 30.9 22.5 20.3 22.7 27.4 18.6 27.4 15.7
53.6 53.9 48.6 50.0 38.6 16.4 16.1 27.0 43.7 39.4 35.0 34.9
35.5 26.3 34.0 31.2 22.3 6.9 2.4 15.7 24.8 24.0 23.3 17.7
65.6 68.5 57.4 61.4 50.6 35.0 35.5 30.5 33.6 51.1 48.7 45.9
53.3 58.0 46.0 52.1 38.0 16.8 18.2 14.8 26.0 18.9 33.8 21.5
26.4 36.7 32.0 24.6 16.0 12.6 20.6 7.3 19.8 18.9 25.8 25.0
51.3 44.0 44.6 34.2 33.1 21.3 29.6 25.9 28.9 30.6 42.0 28.2
49.6 41.8 41.4 23.1 20.3 20.4 22.1 18.9 35.4 21.1 37.5 33.7
35.0 33.4 37.1 27.6 14.9 21.0 27.8 20.6 23.3 28.0 34.1 26.5
38.7 40.1 31.7 43.8 33.4 13.2 22.1 13.1 13.0 21.7 29.3 27.3
23.8 26.3 27.1 25.2 10.3 9.6 8.7 7.3 13.0 9.7 24.5 9.6
2.0 1.4 2.3 2.4 0.6 3.0 1.8 3.5 3.2 5.1 3.8 3.8
3.2 1.7 2.9 0.9 0.9 2.7 2.7 1.2 2.9 3.4 3.5 7.0
17.2 15.1 17.7 17.6 18.6 11.6 13.6 8.4 9.4 17.7 15.5 18.6
28.1 34.6 37.7 33.3 33.4 29.0 30.9 31.4 31.3 33.4 29.2 29.4
47.0 43.1 36.9 41.5 43.4 50.1 47.5 52.6 51.3 36.0 45.6 39.2
2.6 4.0 2.6 4.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 2.9 1.8 4.3 2.3 2.0
350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350
349 350 350 332 350 336 337 344 339 350 342 344
99.7 100.0 100.0 94.9 100.0 96.0 96.3 98.3 96.9 100.0 97.7 98.3
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Table E.2.1.2: Consumer Expectations Survey - North East
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -17.8 -10.7 -6.5 -27.2 -5.9 0.1 1.1 3.3 -7.2 -7.9 -7.3 -14.5 -20.7 -23.0 -14.7 -3.5
Next Quarter 7.2 27.4 19.0 6.6 28.4 23.7 37.9 34.7 39.3 37.4 27.8 25.9 23.4 16.5 19.2 43.7
Next 12 months 21.3 32.0 37.9 13.7 31.7 14.6 44.7 38.3 22.4 16.7 3.6 27.0 23.4 21.1 24.8 37.2
Economic Condition -62.6 -56.0 -13.8 -46.6 3.3 25.4 8.0 9.9 -3.3 0.8 -13.1 -10.2 -16.7 -21.0 -7.9 6.9
Under N 20,000 per month -74.0 -48.2 -20.0 -45.2 -12.5 26.2 -2.4 -10.4 -38.1 -16.3 -34.8 -27.7 -24.6 -12.8 -16.2 9.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -40.0 -66.7 -4.3 -53.6 4.5 23.5 13.7 13.1 -10.5 0.0 -20.5 -1.4 -11.9 -16.3 -9.8 7.7
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 0.0 -62.5 -16.7 -40.9 20.6 24.1 20.0 34.0 12.5 17.9 4.6 0.8 -11.9 -38.2 -9.7 6.5
Over N 100,000 per month -100.0 -19.8 -50.0 -50.0 -18.2 40.0 -7.5 31.3 21.8 7.5 -13.6 -7.5 -21.3 -18.8 31.3 -1.6
Family Financial Situation 29.0 24.0 -5.8 -15.8 -25.8 -21.9 -22.7 -10.4 -22.5 -29.2 -12.6 -22.9 -34.4 -26.9 -23.7 -28.7
Under N 20,000 per month -11.5 4.0 -10.0 -19.0 -39.3 -48.6 -23.0 -7.1 -54.8 -23.9 -28.3 -25.5 -47.9 -35.3 -41.2 -33.6
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -7.5 7.0 -4.3 -10.7 -14.2 -30.9 -22.0 -17.5 -17.4 -39.1 -14.8 -21.6 -27.7 -23.3 -22.0 -21.4
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 0.0 1.0 -8.3 -27.3 -35.3 -36.2 -18.8 -6.4 -11.5 -20.2 -6.2 -19.5 -37.3 -24.3 -17.2 -30.4
Over N 100,000 per month -50.0 -29.8 25.0 16.7 -31.8 -55.0 -32.5 6.3 -17.3 -17.5 0.0 -27.5 -25.0 -25.0 0.0 -42.2
Family Income -19.7 0.0 0.0 -19.1 5.0 -3.2 17.9 10.3 4.1 4.6 3.7 -10.4 -10.9 -21.1 -12.6 11.3
Under N 20,000 per month -17.3 -14.3 5.0 -33.3 14.3 0.0 12.7 -10.4 -38.1 -8.7 -47.8 -17.0 -23.9 -32.1 -33.8 34.3
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -30.0 11.1 17.4 14.3 -4.5 -10.8 14.3 28.8 2.1 6.9 0.0 -7.7 -5.0 -15.0 -15.0 13.7
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 0.0 50.0 -50.0 -18.2 14.7 10.3 25.0 14.9 17.3 21.4 26.2 0.0 3.0 -20.8 -4.5 5.8
Over N 100,000 per month 0.0 0.0 -100.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 35.0 0.0 29.1 -10.0 9.1 -25.0 -22.2 -16.7 37.5 -34.4
Economic Condition -7.3 23.0 14.7 -9.0 26.1 28.7 29.7 23.4 41.7 24.4 10.5 9.8 11.5 4.5 9.4 34.6
Under N 20,000 per month -7.8 2.7 11.8 -20.3 29.6 43.3 19.4 5.0 32.4 11.0 -15.8 -15.6 -5.1 7.9 -10.1 17.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -3.8 15.0 26.1 16.7 36.0 34.8 28.4 16.8 45.5 30.8 9.8 8.9 19.5 6.3 2.6 36.7
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -50.0 20.0 -14.3 0.0 14.7 63.2 46.3 63.0 53.4 21.4 18.6 28.2 17.9 1.4 25.7 36.5
Over N 100,000 per month 25.0 -20.0 12.5 -37.5 13.6 -43.8 27.6 13.6 32.9 47.7 9.1 35.7 0.0 -2.9 40.3 43.5
Family Financial Situation -18.4 -2.0 11.7 -31.5 7.8 8.4 24.1 23.6 19.2 23.1 9.1 -10.8 -9.9 -6.5 -6.3 14.4
Under N 20,000 per month -15.6 3.7 -5.9 -62.5 3.7 -13.3 22.4 -10.0 29.7 5.1 -57.9 -15.6 -23.1 -22.2 -34.8 22.9
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month -15.4 -10.0 39.1 38.9 7.0 19.6 20.5 34.7 3.9 32.3 19.5 -8.9 -11.9 -0.8 -20.2 17.7
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -100.0 100.0 -28.6 -40.0 17.6 21.1 36.6 43.5 48.3 34.7 15.7 -11.3 -4.3 -2.8 20.8 6.8
Over N100,000 per month 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 37.5 20.7 27.3 6.8 18.2 0.0 -3.6 -4.5 -5.9 45.2 8.7
Family Income 21.0 -4.0 62.7 60.3 51.4 33.9 59.9 57.1 57.1 64.6 63.7 78.7 68.6 51.4 54.6 82.2
Under N20,000 per month 11.1 0.0 52.9 68.8 37.0 33.3 73.5 68.3 83.8 66.1 73.7 72.7 69.2 74.6 78.3 91.7
Between N20,000 and N50,000 per month 30.8 -25.9 78.3 66.7 64.9 33.9 61.4 67.4 80.5 66.2 60.9 80.2 66.9 48.4 61.4 79.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 100.0 40.0 71.4 40.0 35.3 28.9 56.1 19.6 51.7 75.5 61.4 83.1 60.0 39.4 27.8 78.4
Over N 100,000 per month 0.0 100.0 0.0 50.0 59.1 62.5 37.9 63.6 23.3 31.8 81.8 78.6 80.3 44.1 38.7 87.0
Economic Condition 9.3 30.0 26.5 2.8 27.9 41.6 38.7 34.5 40.2 28.0 21.4 19.7 11.9 9.9 14.6 36.7
Under N 20,000 per month 1.4 -1.2 36.4 -5.0 33.3 36.4 9.0 23.9 18.5 22.4 -7.5 -16.0 3.6 6.7 -25.5 42.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 15.5 18.1 32.7 -12.5 37.0 42.5 46.3 28.3 41.2 26.1 15.3 33.3 19.6 7.6 14.0 38.1
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 14.3 14.3 -21.4 26.5 16.3 54.0 47.0 48.5 61.0 34.7 32.6 27.8 10.8 22.1 22.4 38.8
Over N 100,000 per month 50.0 -10.0 35.7 10.0 25.0 20.0 41.9 33.3 58.0 40.6 32.5 15.0 8.0 -4.7 44.5 26.3
Family Financial Situation 3.9 10.0 21.6 -9.6 16.4 8.1 27.5 19.9 -2.9 -3.6 12.8 -1.5 -2.0 -6.9 -1.4 15.8
Under N 20,000 per month 5.4 -28.6 -9.1 -31.7 42.9 -9.1 7.7 -13.6 -16.9 -14.3 -25.0 -20.8 -28.6 0.0 -20.8 21.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 6.9 19.4 42.3 -40.6 12.0 9.4 33.3 24.1 -3.5 -8.5 6.7 -5.7 -4.1 -12.4 -25.2 13.8
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -14.3 9.1 -14.3 -17.6 11.6 18.0 24.0 33.3 0.0 -5.6 27.8 13.9 -1.3 -1.2 13.4 17.5
Over N 100,000 per month 0.0 0.0 28.6 -20.0 11.5 53.3 40.5 27.8 32.0 62.5 20.0 5.0 14.7 -14.0 47.3 12.3
Family Income 50.7 56.0 65.7 47.9 50.7 -5.8 68.1 60.6 29.8 25.7 -23.3 62.8 60.2 60.3 61.4 59.3
Under N 20,000 per month 50.0 7.1 59.1 68.3 52.4 0.0 64.1 56.8 18.5 31.6 -28.9 54.7 42.9 60.8 53.8 48.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 46.7 62.9 63.5 50.0 66.0 61.8 71.6 62.7 43.4 19.7 -14.8 65.2 58.8 62.4 63.5 58.3
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 64.3 68.2 78.6 61.8 60.5 62.0 75.0 62.1 20.7 26.4 -28.2 63.9 64.6 55.2 59.7 64.4
Over N 100,000 per month 75.0 50.0 71.4 85.0 71.2 53.3 55.4 52.8 12.0 40.6 -26.9 65.0 67.3 64.0 66.4 62.3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average 17.9 20.7 20.5 19.2 32.7 15.9 16.8 17.5 24.0 22.6 11.0 7.0 1.8 3.2 8.6 15.9
Food & Other household needs 50.7 56.0 65.7 65.1 36.4 61.5 68.1 60.6 46.6 25.7 76.8 62.8 60.2 60.3 61.4 59.3
Education 68.5 64.0 40.3 63.7 21.5 53.4 66.3 54.0 54.0 31.3 75.0 60.8 57.9 64.5 67.0 68.6
Debt Payment 2.7 12.0 6.9 23.2 16.4 8.9 6.8 6.1 30.1 28.8 8.5 3.7 5.7 16.3 23.8 22.1
Medical Expenses 66.6 56.0 49.0 52.8 57.1 28.4 46.3 49.3 32.3 22.9 53.5 32.0 37.1 36.7 39.7 34.2
Savings -49.3 -53.0 6.9 -20.6 39.3 11.0 15.9 3.1 35.8 12.4 11.3 -3.4 -7.4 -16.4 -7.0 13.8
Purchase of Appliances 34.9 42.0 9.9 1.3 22.9 -5.2 -10.0 10.0 34.1 14.4 -2.7 -18.6 -23.7 -21.0 -14.2 -4.0
Investment 0.0 -14.0 7.9 36.3 33.6 10.1 5.9 -0.9 18.8 33.9 -15.4 -8.1 -17.6 -18.2 4.6 5.5
Purchase of Consumer durables 40.8 52.0 20.6 31.6 45.7 16.8 4.1 20.1 23.9 36.7 12.6 3.7 -2.9 -13.9 -1.7 8.6
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -33.0 -17.0 2.0 -43.9 29.3 -12.5 -21.6 -5.4 -12.0 8.7 -32.9 -34.1 -38.6 -28.1 -25.6 -13.8
Purchase of House 7.3 20.0 0.0 -30.2 24.3 -1.2 -4.7 -6.9 8.2 24.1 -31.1 -17.6 -30.6 -26.0 -27.0 -13.9
Others 7.3 10.0 16.7 32.2 33.6 3.7 8.2 2.9 -7.2 9.6 -34.5 -4.7 -20.6 -18.9 -25.9 -5.0
Buying Conditions Index 34.9 38.5 50.3 27.9 54.6 62.9 56.0 56.9 51.8 56.2 33.6 36.0 35.5 31.2 35.7 43.6
Consumer Durables 40.2 50.0 50.0 40.5 52.5 51.6 59.0 55.2 52.1 52.3 51.9 44.8 44.6 39.5 43.7 55.7
Motor Vehicle 16.4 23.0 43.6 18.9 55.0 74.6 55.9 55.8 51.8 58.3 25.0 29.3 31.0 28.5 33.2 40.0
House & Lot 48.0 42.5 57.4 24.3 56.4 62.4 53.0 59.9 51.5 58.1 23.9 33.9 30.8 25.7 30.1 35.2
Buying Intentions Index 45.3 45.8 56.4 31.5 47.9 60.9 61.5 60.1 53.6 57.0 43.3 43.3 41.8 42.6 41.2 47.2
Motor Vehicle 35.2 32.0 57.4 16.8 43.0 45.8 46.0 46.1 51.9 56.5 36.8 36.9 38.8 42.4 37.5 43.4
House & Lot 48.7 50.5 52.5 32.5 42.5 48.4 47.5 44.1 60.4 66.2 36.6 43.9 37.7 38.9 36.7 40.3
Unemployment Rate Index -12.5 31 34.3 2.05 40.4 44.4 47.4 22.4 33.6 24.7 41.0 41.0 36.8 44.1 35.1 37.7
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 28.9 -4.0 -47.1 52.1 25.0 1.2 14.4 10.4 20.8 24.7 30.5 27.3 28.7 40.0 36.7 24.7
Exchange Rate -53.9 -72.0 47.1 -68.5 2.1 -10.5 -8.2 -12.7 9.8 7.2 -22.9 27.5 -16.8 -17.6 -20.7 -7.6
Change in Price Index 11.7 27.8 52.3 51.8 33.3 43.2 33.2 50.2 44.0 30.3 47.4 55.4 42.6 40.4 40.5 47.4
Food
-50 -14.0 25.5 48.0 39.3 14.9 43 75.4 57.5 67.7 67.3 78.0 54.0 46.1 56.3 78.4
Clothing & Footwaer
0 24.0 74.5 60.2 36.4 51.2 26.6 58.0 44.9 55.9 36.9 50.5 41.0 45.1 48.6 53.1
Electricity
7.9 -4.0 56.8 27.4 21.5 42.0 35.2 45.7 62.8 38.0 78.6 74.0 51.9 57.6 63.0 57.2
Water
-5.2 -18.0 45.1 20.6 16.4 20.1 27.5 43.9 31.9 9.2 40.1 44.0 26.3 30.2 30.4 34.5
House Rent
71 94.0 84.3 63.1 57.1 66.5 63.8 67.0 70.6 50.3 78.6 73.0 66.2 61.4 50.4 70.5
Transportation
46.1 72.0 80.4 69.8 39.3 39.6 37.2 55.7 49.8 38.5 56.6 75.4 67.9 52.2 62.6 66.4
Communication
5.3 12.0 39.2 42.4 22.9 26.2 3.8 9.9 17.2 10.3 33.7 31.4 18.7 18.3 35.3 27.4
Education
-7.9 42.0 56.9 53.5 33.6 64.1 57.5 66.1 65.3 36.9 62.6 66.8 47.1 49.5 40.9 47.2
Medical Care
17.1 32.0 60.8 69.8 45.7 59.3 41.1 50.4 61.6 22.6 55.6 56.0 50.2 49.4 41.3 42.8
Personal Care
14.5 24.0 15.7 54.8 29.3 41.6 23.7 49.0 20.8 18.4 20.3 29.6 26.6 19.6 23.1 28.1
Hotel & Restaurant
10.5 32.0 56.9 46.6 24.3 58.0 23.6 57.6 40.8 42.6 45.5 42.9 40.3 39.7 26.2 36.6
Others
31.6 38.0 31.4 65.8 33.6 35.1 15.4 23.1 4.9 -27.1 -6.9 42.6 21.5 16.0 7.3 26.0
Primary School 13.2 8.0 9.8 35.6 6.4 9.7 5.3 4.2 22.9 11.3 4.8 6.9 4.4 3.1 4.5 1.4
Junior School 5.3 4.0 3.9 2.7 13.6 2.0 2.4 3.3 14.7 29.2 1.1 2.5 3.8 1.4 3.5 1.0
Senior School 22.4 42.0 13.7 20.5 37.1 12.1 13.0 17.5 26.5 17.9 11.2 8.3 6.8 10.8 18.9 9.2
Higher non-university education 38.2 30.0 35.3 17.8 38.6 47.2 44.4 40.6 27.3 23.1 42.8 42.2 37.9 40.0 35.3 44.2
University 11.8 8.0 37.3 11.0 4.3 22.6 28.5 27.4 6.5 15.4 30.5 35.4 42.7 41.4 30.8 42.5
None 9.2 8.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 6.5 6.3 7.1 2.0 3.1 9.6 4.7 4.4 3.1 7.0 1.7
Number of Sample Households 100 75 75 75 200 250.0 210 200 200 200 200 300 300 300 300 300
Number of Respondents 76 50 51 73 140 200 207 198 200 195 187 277 293 294 286 292
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Response Rate 76.0 66.7 68.0 97.3 70.0 80.0 98.6 99.0 100.0 97.5 93.5 92.3 97.7 98.0 95.3 97.3
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-12.6 -11.0 -4.1 -0.2 -13.3 -8.5 -15.9 -29.3 -15.1 6.0 -0.9 -5.3 -14.2 -25.4 -23.1
29.7 19.7 37.2 38.6 18.7 20.1 24.5 13.9 29.3 28.3 8.6 31.7 25.0 14.8 15.7
29.1 26.1 35.1 37.0 24.7 27.2 23.8 28.4 41.1 52.5 38.1 41.9 49.6 43.5 41.2
-17.4 -8.7 -4.2 9.3 -4.3 0.6 -5.2 -31.0 -8.0 20.0 22.0 6.8 -2.0 -8.2 -11.2
-18.4 -5.1 -2.2 6.9 -10.0 -6.3 -19.1 -27.4 2.9 23.1 24.3 -2.0 -2.6 -7.7 -8.5
-27.2 -9.6 -3.8 11.5 -1.2 2.7 0.5 -37.8 -8.2 12.1 17.3 11.7 -2.6 -9.6 -15.6
-10.3 -4.9 -2.8 2.7 -1.9 -3.5 2.7 -24.6 -13.6 29.9 30.8 4.5 6.9 -7.5 -11.2
-1.5 -20.0 -14.8 25.0 -10.0 34.6 2.6 -18.8 -15.2 21.9 19.4 8.3 -17.6 -6.3 -3.0
-23.7 -24.5 -24.6 -18.3 -32.5 -19.6 -35.8 -29.8 -30.2 -19.1 -25.2 -30.6 -32.5 -39.2 -33.5
-47.4 -30.4 -52.2 -39.7 -40.0 -25.9 -40.7 -31.0 -58.7 -27.8 -39.2 -52.0 -43.0 -43.1 -32.4
-35.8 -24.0 -17.8 -16.3 -35.8 -20.5 -31.9 -37.4 -25.5 -24.5 -28.5 -32.0 -30.2 -40.8 -36.2
-9.8 -21.1 -8.5 -10.9 -21.3 -17.6 -35.7 -23.0 -20.0 -9.7 -16.9 -17.4 -31.3 -38.1 -26.1
4.4 -21.4 -29.6 -16.7 -32.5 3.8 -34.2 -6.3 -18.2 -12.5 -2.8 -16.7 -26.5 -31.3 -42.4
3.4 0.3 16.4 8.5 -3.0 -6.4 -6.8 -27.2 -7.2 17.1 0.4 8.0 -8.1 -29.0 -24.7
-2.6 17.4 24.6 -17.2 -4.4 -8.9 -13.6 -23.8 3.8 18.5 -2.7 -12.2 -21.1 -41.5 -22.7
-7.3 8.8 18.2 17.3 6.2 -3.6 -9.6 -48.0 -15.5 15.7 3.8 13.5 -6.7 -25.0 -32.1
12.7 -18.3 16.9 -1.8 -9.3 -7.0 10.7 -1.6 1.8 20.8 -6.2 12.1 0.0 -29.9 -22.4
20.6 -25.7 -14.8 41.7 -20.0 -15.4 -15.8 8.3 -12.1 6.3 5.6 12.5 -8.8 -20.8 -9.1
11.9 7.4 25.4 37.3 7.0 19.8 10.0 2.2 28.0 54.8 38.2 34.2 53.0 38.8 36.0
0.0 -2.7 30.5 14.3 -13.9 13.3 -9.1 7.3 23.9 37.5 34.4 32.1 51.1 32.0 33.8
-1.2 15.2 23.3 38.8 5.8 13.9 10.6 -13.1 21.5 60.6 33.6 32.5 46.7 41.7 32.7
26.0 0.6 27.4 40.8 8.2 26.1 43.6 12.1 26.6 52.5 44.4 31.2 61.0 41.3 38.5
29.2 9.8 19.4 42.5 38.0 45.5 -1.8 28.1 51.3 58.6 47.9 48.5 57.1 35.8 42.2
6.8 4.6 24.4 16.0 -1.5 -2.8 15.2 -7.6 26.4 36.9 6.4 19.6 27.6 10.0 11.0
-2.6 -3.6 16.9 4.8 -5.6 -8.3 6.1 0.0 52.2 40.6 28.1 15.4 37.0 8.0 22.5
-1.6 8.2 23.3 14.9 -6.4 -8.9 17.6 -26.1 9.0 32.7 -7.4 3.0 17.9 4.3 1.9
16.0 3.9 29.8 18.5 1.6 10.4 32.7 1.5 28.1 42.5 15.3 33.8 39.5 10.7 1.4
19.4 6.5 27.8 25.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 28.1 37.5 37.1 20.8 41.2 21.4 21.7 27.5
70.4 47.0 61.9 62.5 50.5 43.2 48.4 47.2 33.6 -6.8 -18.8 41.2 -5.7 -4.3 0.0
78.9 56.4 74.6 76.2 63.9 53.3 64.6 53.7 26.1 -21.9 -56.3 51.3 -13.0 8.0 4.2
69.9 34.4 57.5 60.6 53.8 49.5 50.6 58.6 33.0 0.0 -13.1 48.0 2.4 -9.6 1.0
69.0 48.1 65.5 58.5 45.9 32.8 23.6 34.8 39.1 -15.2 -8.3 36.4 -8.1 -6.7 -2.7
66.7 67.4 47.2 70.0 32.0 18.2 42.9 25.0 35.0 2.9 -29.2 20.6 -16.7 -1.7 -3.9
13.3 8.3 18.4 30.3 16.8 21.8 9.8 21.0 36.4 63.9 43.4 52.6 60.8 49.2 46.5
-5.0 9.4 -10.4 20.0 8.6 14.0 0.8 8.6 25.0 57.4 44.7 32.8 51.4 25.7 42.7
10.8 10.0 25.0 25.4 4.6 10.5 9.4 5.7 24.7 62.2 29.1 46.6 57.8 45.4 38.6
21.9 6.5 24.7 34.3 34.9 23.0 18.7 37.9 36.0 62.7 50.0 57.0 62.3 61.9 52.3
13.7 5.8 23.6 35.0 17.2 58.3 9.1 47.2 67.7 72.8 76.6 70.9 69.0 49.3 53.1
8.1 8.0 28.8 20.0 5.0 -0.4 12.8 4.0 31.2 41.3 12.8 22.4 34.7 24.9 20.3
-20.0 0.0 20.8 6.7 0.0 -18.6 16.7 13.8 59.5 33.3 15.8 15.6 31.4 8.1 21.0
1.7 13.0 24.5 5.8 1.3 -4.2 5.6 -26.1 2.4 37.2 -2.6 0.0 28.4 21.6 12.5
21.9 1.3 37.6 31.4 12.7 14.5 23.9 30.0 29.3 49.4 22.6 37.2 38.2 23.7 14.0
13.7 13.3 29.1 26.7 3.1 0.0 3.0 41.7 60.4 42.6 40.6 44.2 41.4 40.9 39.1
65.9 62.0 58.2 60.8 52.3 60.2 48.8 60.2 55.8 52.4 58.2 50.6 53.2 56.5 56.8
38.3 45.8 44.3 50.0 34.5 61.6 33.3 6.9 53.6 48.1 55.3 48.4 40.0 33.8 41.1
63.8 64.8 62.8 65.9 50.0 60.0 53.3 72.2 48.8 58.0 55.7 50.6 52.9 60.2 59.7
75.5 66.9 62.4 61.6 61.1 55.9 52.2 62.1 60.7 53.0 61.3 50.0 54.9 57.2 63.4
68.6 63.3 56.4 51.7 56.3 68.1 57.6 61.1 62.5 41.5 60.9 53.5 58.6 62.5 59.4
2013 2014 2015 2016
4.3 15.4 18.9 13.6 7.7 10.5 5.0 5.2 11.5 14.3 7.2 8.8 13.7 13.3 10.2
65.9 62.0 58.2 60.8 52.3 60.2 48.8 60.2 55.8 52.4 58.2 50.6 53.2 56.5 56.8
66.4 66.2 65.4 64.5 54.3 63.4 51.6 64.8 55.4 57.9 66.8 55.4 53.2 58.5 58.0
11.8 19.2 10.4 16.3 24.0 23.0 8.2 22.4 -0.2 3.2 14.2 8.8 18.0 14.5 20.3
31.0 39.9 42.6 33.3 36.0 49.8 35.0 44.4 24.0 34.9 30.6 24.6 34.2 34.5 37.5
-6.9 10.8 11.7 13.8 2.3 1.4 8.6 3.0 18.0 24.8 9.4 7.6 8.6 10.8 2.5
-25.2 0.3 5.2 -6.5 -22.3 -12.0 -12.2 -15.0 -1.0 0.6 -14.0 -4.0 -5.4 -11.0 -13.3
-18.5 1.2 8.5 3.0 -7.3 2.8 -7.2 -15.8 3.0 19.0 -11.0 5.0 13.3 8.8 -1.0
5.2 -1.5 9.9 4.5 -6.5 9.8 2.2 -0.2 16.2 8.8 5.8 1.0 6.7 6.0 1.2
-40.6 -18.7 -0.5 -18.8 -27.5 -32.4 -28.6 -34.4 -15.6 -15.1 -30.2 -21.2 -15.5 -13.3 -30.3
-31.8 -10.5 -8.4 -19.8 -13.8 -26.4 -21.6 -33.4 -13.8 -13.7 -28.2 -16.4 -10.6 -8.0 -19.7
-10.0 0.8 4.7 -1.5 -6.8 -24.0 -30.2 -38.6 -14.8 -15.3 -22.6 -15.0 -5.4 -10.5 0.5
37.4 37.7 48.3 42.6 38.2 38.4 43.1 31.9 43.5 49.0 39.8 45.1 42.4 34.9 36.3
51.7 50.2 58.2 54.3 48.5 46.8 46.6 36.4 46.4 58.6 50.2 54.0 46.0 35.5 37.7
29.6 31.9 43.6 35.6 31.9 34.7 40.8 30.0 43.7 46.6 36.0 40.2 40.1 34.3 35.8
30.8 31.0 43.1 37.9 34.1 33.7 41.9 29.2 40.4 41.8 33.2 41.1 41.1 34.8 35.3
42.9 42.9 53.7 49.4 44.7 42.4 50.0 40.8 54.2 57.4 46.9 51.9 56.8 51.6 49.0
54.1 54.0 64.4 60.0 52.5 49.8 56.4 52.0 65.6 70.7 56.4 61.2 67.3 62.3 60.2
37.5 36.9 46.8 45.3 40.5 38.8 44.7 35.0 49.1 51.9 42.7 48.9 52.4 47.0 43.6
37.1 37.8 49.7 42.9 41.1 38.7 48.9 35.4 48.0 49.5 41.7 45.7 50.8 45.6 43.3
46.6 37.7 32.6 40.0 34.5 33.4 24.6 23.0 9.6 -6.2 5.4 8.0 -3.9 -4.5 10.2
28.6 23.4 22.1 28.0 20.5 12.0 24.8 23.6 -18.0 -29.2 -24.4 9.2 -21.5 -4.0 4.0
-23.5 -9.3 -7.7 -11.5 -21.0 -14.0 -1.6 -40.4 24.8 27.2 6.0 -6.8 26.3 -1.7 3.3
37.6 35.7 35.5 35.9 32.9 32.5 25.1 26.9 11.4 -8.0 -4.3 10.3 -14.8 1.1 15.2
69.7 56.0 51.5 65.0 48.0 48.4 42.8 37.2 29.2 -7.2 -20.4 29.2 -23.9 -8.7 -12.7
32.7 44.4 41.5 39.0 24.5 30.8 28.4 26.8 12.0 -13.9 -12.8 6.8 -17.2 9.7 -5.3
53.2 42.7 47.2 48.0 34.0 40.0 44.0 30.0 10.8 -10.4 7.2 18.4 -2.0 4.3 26.3
23.9 17.7 24.4 20.0 19.0 24.8 12.4 25.2 0.8 -15.5 -13.6 -3.2 -23.9 -9.7 17.7
53.9 51.0 50.2 46.5 49.0 42.4 24.0 43.2 18.4 -2.0 10.8 18.4 -16.2 10.7 24.0
43.8 41.6 42.1 40.0 58.5 34.4 23.2 30.0 6.0 -15.9 -18.0 6.0 -27.9 7.3 19.7
11.1 30.0 22.4 20.0 24.5 20.8 8.4 22.4 8.8 -10.0 -9.6 -4.4 -14.5 3.0 10.3
44.8 43.0 42.1 47.5 40.5 44.4 37.6 32.0 15.2 4.0 13.2 14.8 -5.7 8.0 26.3
44.1 40.0 41.8 43.5 37.0 49.2 32.4 37.2 14.8 -8.4 9.2 13.6 -7.7 10.0 24.3
32.3 17.6 19.1 16.5 19.0 15.6 17.2 19.2 24.4 -10.8 4.0 2.0 -7.1 -6.0 17.3
24.9 30.0 27.8 29.0 21.5 26.0 16.8 22.4 -6.0 -1.2 -10.8 13.6 -19.2 -11.3 16.3
16.5 14.7 15.7 15.5 19.0 13.6 14.0 -2.4 2.4 -4.4 -10.4 8.4 -12.1 -4.3 17.7
5.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 4.4 3.6 0.4 4.0 2.0 3.2 1.2 4.4 2.0 7.3
2.0 3.0 3.3 0.5 1.5 3.2 1.6 4.8 2.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 4.4 2.7 1.7
42.0 9.0 13.4 5.0 9.0 14.0 16.0 15.2 20.4 15.5 19.2 14.8 14.5 13.3 10.7
123.0 40.3 33.4 45.5 42.0 38.0 44.8 42.0 35.6 39.8 41.2 44.0 33.3 35.0 38.0
118.0 40.0 44.8 46.0 46.0 39.2 32.4 36.8 35.2 39.4 33.2 37.6 41.1 45.0 38.7
7.0 6.7 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.0 3.7
300 300 300 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 300 300 300
297 300 299 200 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 297 300 300
2013 2014 2015 2016
99.0 100.0 99.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 99 100 100
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Table E.2.1.3: Consumer Expectations Survey - North West
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -12.6 -21.0 -6.9 -4.9 7.1 -1.0 -3.8 10.6 6.2 -5.6 -13.8 -15.7 -16.0 -15.7 -3.3 -4.3 -10.4
Next Quarter 14.0 8.0 29.4 30.9 36.6 25.6 29.8 38.4 39.8 29.7 17.4 26.7 24.4 16.6 29.5 39.7 24.1
Next 12 months 24.9 31.7 36.8 32.5 46.2 42.2 26.4 35.6 40.2 40.6 18.3 22.5 23.9 20.7 30.5 31.3 19.4
Economic Condition -16.3 -20.4 -4.6 -0.4 16.4 13.4 1.7 17.9 6.2 -2.2 -14.8 -19.3 -18.3 -10.4 -1.8 3.2 -6.7
Under N 20,000 per month 27.6 -25.0 -3.9 6.0 4.7 3.7 -23.6 18.8 -5.4 -4.9 -10.8 -26.6 -22.8 -20.7 -8.1 16.7 -16.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 17.2 -15.7 2.9 -4.4 16.5 16.0 4.7 17.3 11.0 0.0 -18.1 -14.8 -15.2 -12.9 0.0 -1.0 -4.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 25.5 -22.2 -21.4 6.3 21.2 15.3 10.2 27.1 11.3 -5.3 0.9 -14.6 -14.0 2.9 4.8 -3.0 0.0
Over N 100,000 per month 25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -2.0 31.0 9.7 2.3 0.0 -1.7 -41.4 -37.0 -29.3 0.0 -12.5 5.7 0.0
Family Financial Situation -11.0 -25.4 -16.7 -7.2 -9.4 -27.1 -10.0 -3.1 0.8 -26.4 -20.5 -15.0 -18.6 -22.8 -8.9 -17.6 -12.9
Under N 20,000 per month -8.7 -12.5 -17.6 -17.2 -29.7 -48.2 -19.1 -19.4 -16.2 -40.2 -23.6 -21.7 -31.0 -26.1 -20.9 -27.3 -26.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -10.2 -22.5 -22.1 1.9 6.3 -34.0 -8.9 -13.1 5.3 -27.4 -23.3 -22.8 -20.3 -25.0 -9.0 -17.2 -12.9
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -20.2 -4.5 -7.1 -12.5 -4.5 -27.4 -4.2 -2.1 7.0 -10.5 -14.5 5.6 -10.4 -15.9 -0.6 -13.3 0.7
Over N 100,000 per month -4.2 1.5 5.0 4.2 -14.0 -7.1 -9.7 -1.2 1.4 -24.1 -12.1 4.3 -4.9 -20.0 -1.6 -10.2 -2.0
Family Income -10.5 -17.3 0.7 -7.3 14.4 10.7 -3.0 17.0 11.5 11.7 -6.2 -12.7 -11.1 -14.0 0.9 1.7 -11.7
Under N 20,000 per month -30.5 -10.7 5.9 -4.5 9.4 2.4 7.3 18.8 -3.1 16.4 -8.1 -3.3 -10.1 -10.6 0.0 6.7 -23.1
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 9.0 -18.6 7.4 -15.2 16.5 21.6 5.9 13.1 21.1 12.5 -5.2 -14.2 -6.1 -12.9 6.5 8.1 0.0
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -12.8 -22.2 -19.0 9.4 18.2 0.0 -6.8 27.1 19.7 -1.8 3.6 -18.1 -14.6 -13.0 0.0 -12.0 -11.9
Over N 100,000 per month -25.0 -50.0 -30.0 -16.7 16.0 9.5 -23.9 7.0 -11.1 24.1 -24.1 -21.7 -24.4 -27.5 -21.9 -2.3 -15.7
Economic Condition 27.9 11.3 17.4 20.6 31.6 31.5 14.1 25.9 22.6 36.9 3.2 5.6 16.1 7.1 17.6 25.4 12.1
Under N 20,000 per month 24.8 4.5 13.5 11.1 36.0 25.0 3.7 23.8 10.6 27.9 -3.1 -2.5 14.7 -2.6 21.8 31.5 2.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 34.5 14.3 21.1 32.0 30.7 30.3 19.7 32.7 25.0 40.3 4.9 5.9 14.1 6.6 26.5 26.9 20.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 27.2 15.0 25.0 10.8 24.2 40.6 19.1 21.3 37.0 33.6 12.3 16.1 16.5 12.4 6.0 17.2 21.9
Over N 100,000 per month 13.5 30.0 3.3 11.5 33.9 32.9 14.7 20.4 3.5 36.8 -8.1 -7.4 24.4 16.3 4.8 26.0 -4.2
Family Financial Situation -3.1 -9.3 12.7 4.2 24.9 22.4 7.0 18.7 21.7 20.9 -8.0 -3.5 -8.0 -2.7 9.3 14.3 0.0
Under N 20,000 per month -18.4 -12.7 1.9 1.9 26.3 7.9 0.0 24.6 25.0 17.6 -3.1 2.5 -25.0 -5.1 10.9 13.6 -18.2
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month 7.2 -5.7 24.6 9.3 19.3 18.3 8.1 19.1 28.2 26.7 -6.8 -6.6 -5.5 -11.7 13.5 18.5 12.3
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 6.5 -20.0 11.5 2.7 30.3 43.8 17.6 13.8 20.8 12.3 -4.3 0.0 -5.3 10.7 14.1 9.2 6.8
Over N100,000 per month -3.8 20.0 6.7 -15.4 32.1 26.8 1.3 18.4 0.0 17.6 -27.0 -14.8 4.7 4.7 -19.0 13.5 -6.3
Family Income 17.1 22.0 58.0 67.9 53.3 22.8 68.3 70.6 75.0 31.2 56.9 77.9 65.1 45.3 61.6 79.4 60.3
Under N20,000 per month 0.0 1.8 61.5 70.4 36.8 23.7 72.2 77.0 76.9 61.8 61.5 73.8 72.1 60.3 47.6 92.6 68.7
Over N 100,000 per month 45.8 -60.0 40.0 76.9 92.9 34.1 57.7 71.4 72.1 44.1 32.4 74.1 60.5 41.9 59.2 69.2 70.8
Economic Condition 40.6 27.1 25.3 29.0 40.5 38.6 18.3 29.9 24.1 31.0 1.3 9.3 11.9 3.9 16.7 18.9 -1.6
Under N 20,000 per month 39.9 22.1 19.7 6.1 24.4 27.6 5.8 24.4 13.3 18.3 -3.3 4.7 13.9 -5.4 12.3 21.2 -12.3
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 38.3 30.4 20.0 32.8 29.3 43.0 17.6 32.4 34.0 36.7 12.0 15.4 22.3 2.5 17.9 15.3 -13.3
Over N 100,000 per month 20.0 55.0 25.0 39.5 37.9 49.0 29.0 24.6 10.7 26.0 -22.2 13.6 4.1 24.2 16.1 21.9 1.8
Family Financial Situation 17.1 2.0 17.3 7.3 34.9 24.5 4.0 16.0 31.4 25.4 -4.0 1.7 -3.1 -1.2 11.9 13.7 0.3
Under N 20,000 per month 2.6 4.7 0.0 -7.3 10.3 -3.4 -9.3 11.1 11.1 13.3 -1.7 1.3 -18.0 -8.1 10.5 3.8 -23.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 28.3 -10.1 26.6 20.8 37.5 14.9 8.5 16.0 43.0 27.7 -6.1 -3.6 -9.2 -7.1 7.4 19.2 6.0
Over N 100,000 per month 17.1 10.0 5.6 -5.3 51.5 53.8 3.4 16.4 25.0 31.3 -20.0 0.0 6.1 3.2 8.5 12.3 -1.8
Family Income 17.1 66.0 67.7 61.3 63.2 63.4 56.8 61.1 65.1 65.3 57.7 56.6 62.9 59.4 63.0 61.4 59.5
Under N 20,000 per month -1.3 65.1 -44.6 51.2 -1.3 52.3 44.2 45.6 12.0 55.0 51.7 55.3 52.5 49.3 54.4 51.0 53.2
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 15.2 69.6 -34.1 65.3 -5.7 69.6 66.5 62.3 15.9 65.5 51.0 53.6 59.6 55.6 65.7 64.6 64.6
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 35.5 60.7 -16.7 62.1 3.7 62.8 56.1 69.9 13.9 67.0 72.5 67.3 64.5 69.1 67.5 61.6 57.2
Over N 100,000 per month 27.3 60.0 -9.5 65.8 21.2 66.1 53.4 57.4 11.4 67.7 56.7 37.9 80.6 67.7 58.5 63.0 58.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average 19.3 17.1 22.1 15.9 18.9 18.3 13.6 23.3 26.4 20.2 14.8 18.6 7.5 14.1 19.8 26.0 14.1
Food & Other household needs 67.6 66.0 63.4 61.3 53.3 63.4 56.8 61.1 65.1 65.3 57.7 56.6 62.9 59.4 63.0 61.4 59.4
Education 67.2 67.0 59.0 62.1 59.2 62.0 60.2 64.1 64.4 62.9 62.2 65.9 52.3 62.5 63.5 67.2 57.5
Debt Payment 30.5 16.1 33.0 5.5 21.4 24.5 3.8 16.6 17.7 19.6 5.2 20.9 5.0 16.5 10.1 28.8 21.6
Medical Expenses 50.6 41.7 48.7 39.0 61.2 51.0 35.3 45.0 46.5 36.0 50.2 49.3 36.1 46.1 49.5 45.2 40.5
Savings 7.9 -0.3 5.3 -0.8 -17.5 5.2 7.3 21.8 27.6 14.6 2.2 16.9 2.3 6.1 20.8 22.3 16.4
Purchase of Appliances -3.5 18.7 24.0 -3.4 14.0 -5.8 -0.5 16.5 14.0 7.6 -2.0 -3.1 -8.6 -2.1 5.3 12.5 -4.7
Investment 7.7 -6.7 0.0 1.6 -5.0 -3.0 1.6 11.6 8.9 8.9 0.9 0.4 -13.5 -5.4 4.4 15.8 -2.5
Purchase of Consumer durables 6.7 3.4 4.3 12.2 0.0 13.2 14.2 22.0 28.1 14.1 17.2 14.4 -5.6 1.9 8.0 18.1 3.7
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -15.5 -16.4 9.4 -6.3 9.0 -14.5 -11.4 -1.2 -2.0 -5.9 -21.5 -18.5 -26.9 -19.5 -9.8 1.9 -18.1
Purchase of House -13.9 -4.3 -8.1 -1.1 10.5 -10.9 -10.8 -6.9 10.3 -6.0 -18.4 -8.3 -24.6 -16.1 -12.4 2.2 -14.4
Others 7.3 2.7 4.0 5.0 1.5 16.3 -6.6 6.3 9.8 5.0 9.4 10.6 3.4 5.6 16.1 10.6 -4.0
Buying Conditions Index 52.2 38.6 46.6 43.5 53.2 60.3 59.0 62.6 81.3 44.8 38.9 36.8 36.0 37.7 39.2 44.4 68.9
Consumer Durables 81.2 41.4 50.4 46.4 57.2 55.4 51.5 58.5 79.3 55.9 46.9 43.7 44.5 43.0 50.5 50.9 71.5
Motor Vehicle 38.1 38.3 44.7 43.3 50.7 64.1 62.5 62.4 81.2 41.5 36.8 34.4 32.7 36.6 36.5 43.3 68.3
House & Lot 37.2 36.2 44.9 40.8 51.7 61.6 63.0 67.0 83.5 37.1 32.9 32.4 30.9 33.6 30.6 38.9 66.8
Buying Intentions Index 49.1 49.3 54.3 47.4 47.8 49.5 45.9 46.7 52.6 43.8 42.0 41.7 41.6 42.8 44.1 47.7 71.4
Motor Vehicle 44.6 47.4 54.0 34.2 40.9 44.4 44.2 41.8 46.5 35.4 39.9 37.4 38.0 39.9 39.2 44.1 70.0
House & Lot 44.2 49.5 50.2 54.3 39.9 42.9 41.6 40.3 45.6 33.2 38.1 36.8 38.3 39.1 37.2 42.1 69.6
Unemployment Rate Index 41.3 40.0 33.1 27.4 32.1 38.7 23.5 20.4 20.9 23.2 35.6 25.9 40.4 38.2 34.5 31.0 30.5
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 39.2 34.0 -21.3 23.7 37.3 18.6 -4.7 1.0 6.8 14.8 19.3 14.6 15.4 28.7 32.3 30.0 14.8
Exchange Rate -33.3 -29.3 38.7 -5.7 -15.0 -7.6 -16.4 -2.0 -25.6 4.4 -13.9 -22.3 -26.8 -22.7 -27.3 -8.8 -20.9
Change in Price Index 35.6 41.6 50.8 43.0 41.4 44.0 42.0 35.0 41.3 36.2 42.2 51.0 46.4 50.7 48.3 48.8 50.3
Food
14.4 26.0 37.3 68.9 31.3 9.4 65.2 61.0 66.2 58.0 58.4 71.4 58.3 43.9 69.2 69.8 59.2
Clothing & Footwaer
23.4 36.0 52.0 45.3 36.3 44.2 51.2 47.7 59.8 38.5 50.4 59.3 59.2 48.5 41.5 48.0 45.2
Electricity
28.3 50.0 49.3 31.6 42.8 56.9 50.2 34.7 38.6 53.6 43.8 61.4 61.2 60.7 63.7 54.0 60.0
Water
5.9 24.7 48.7 28.4 28.4 33.2 27.4 16.0 0.7 10.0 28.1 46.4 36.8 39.0 28.1 38.6 42.2
House Rent
68.6 78.7 66.7 64.2 63.2 72.5 55.9 48.6 60.1 65.6 55.4 65.9 61.1 68.0 66.9 63.4 55.7
Transportation
49.3 56.7 69.4 57.9 52.3 46.9 46.2 46.7 47.3 37.8 50.4 66.5 55.5 62.2 66.5 58.0 58.6
Communication
18.2 18.0 51.4 25.8 17.9 34.1 18.4 9.0 29.1 18.9 19.7 38.2 34.8 39.6 25.3 30.9 38.0
Education
49.7 51.3 58.7 49.0 67.1 52.8 47.8 42.6 39.2 32.3 46.3 56.7 46.0 57.2 54.6 56.5 60.0
Medical Care
52.1 62.6 58.0 52.6 59.7 56.2 47.9 34.3 48.0 49.5 48.9 49.3 46.6 55.5 54.0 54.2 62.0
Personal Care
40.2 26.7 30.7 34.8 37.3 46.2 35.7 30.3 39.5 22.7 36.2 27.8 41.1 41.5 31.7 38.6 41.4
Hotel & Restaurant
52.1 46.7 50.0 39.0 47.3 54.8 39.8 30.7 49.7 42.2 42.7 45.0 37.1 56.4 52.1 42.5 42.6
Others
25.5 22.0 37.4 18.4 13.4 21.0 18.0 18.6 16.8 5.2 26.3 24.3 18.5 35.7 26.1 31.5 38.6
Primary School 8.7 6.0 8.7 4.7 8.0 5.5 9.7 8.0 3.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.6 4.1 6.7 5.4 6.9
Junior School 3.1 4.0 4.0 3.2 12.4 3.1 3.7 1.7 2.0 3.1 5.8 1.1 0.6 2.6 1.2 2.6 5.1
Senior School 15.4 12.7 13.3 13.2 24.9 12.1 11.4 14.7 12.2 12.7 10.2 9.7 11.4 8.7 10.8 10.9 14.6
Higher non-university education 39.9 47.3 44.0 36.3 67.2 34.5 28.8 33.3 49.0 41.2 44.5 40.7 38.3 42.7 36.9 40.9 34.3
University 29.4 23.3 30.0 40.5 97.0 34.1 36.8 35.0 32.4 33.7 34.7 36.1 34.3 32.0 39.0 34.9 28.0
None 3.5 6.7 0.0 2.1 100.0 10.7 9.7 7.3 1.4 7.9 2.2 8.6 10.9 9.6 5.2 5.4 11.1
Number of Sample Households 300 200 200 200 250 300.0 300 300 300 300 300 350 350 350 350 350 350
Number of Respondents 286 150 150 190 210 240 299 300 300 291 274 349 350 343 344 350 350
Response Rate 95.3 75.0 75.0 95.0 84.0 80.0 99.7 100.0 100.0 97.0 91.3 99.7 100.0 98.0 98.3 100.0 100.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-12.8 0.5 -4.1 -4.1 -1.7 -6.4 -10.4 -17.3 7.2 3.0 -9.9 -17.0 -18.1 -20.9
24.5 19.2 33.3 31.2 24.7 22.9 22.4 22.2 23.5 16.4 28.9 21.6 20.4 19.5
28.2 33.9 35.1 28.9 35.5 36.2 40.9 51.3 50.3 50.2 45.9 40.1 42.9 40.7
-7.4 -1.6 1.1 3.4 -0.1 -6.1 -9.3 -20.9 22.7 18.0 -8.6 -8.6 -23.3 -23.3
-6.6 -2.4 -5.6 -2.7 -13.8 -16.2 -28.5 -22.2 10.3 -0.9 -22.4 -1.6 -27.4 -25.3
-16.9 0.7 -0.4 -0.4 6.5 -5.0 -4.6 -21.0 19.7 15.5 -0.7 -15.6 -25.2 -27.0
8.2 -2.9 9.1 5.0 -1.4 -2.6 -5.6 -25.9 23.6 29.1 -12.0 -4.8 -7.6 -17.1
-4.5 -4.3 -1.8 18.8 2.5 0.0 6.3 -8.7 42.6 28.6 1.2 -1.1 -28.0 -16.7
-26.1 -7.7 -6.7 -16.7 -13.0 -15.1 -13.1 -19.7 -10.7 -20.7 -20.4 -26.0 -23.6 -19.0
-37.3 -25.4 -22.6 -34.5 -36.2 -34.4 -29.7 -26.1 -7.9 -29.2 -31.6 -29.0 -31.4 -49.3
-23.3 -5.8 -3.0 -13.4 -5.8 -10.4 -11.7 -22.9 -14.2 -13.1 -21.2 -24.5 -25.2 -6.3
-21.2 -1.0 -7.1 -6.9 -12.3 -7.1 -4.6 -12.9 -13.2 -27.9 -15.7 -26.5 -13.6 -20.7
-20.5 -4.3 2.7 -15.2 -1.7 -11.8 -4.7 -10.9 -0.9 -17.1 -4.7 -26.1 -11.0 -12.5
-4.8 10.9 -6.9 0.9 8.0 2.0 -8.9 -11.5 9.7 11.7 -0.6 -16.4 -7.4 -20.3
-12.0 4.8 -9.7 -12.2 3.9 -16.9 -29.1 -19.3 9.5 -1.9 -4.6 -4.8 -2.7 -17.8
-12.2 12.3 -9.7 2.9 8.2 6.4 -8.5 -11.5 -4.7 8.7 1.5 -26.1 -3.6 -17.0
12.3 15.7 7.1 6.4 13.0 5.1 4.1 -11.9 12.3 17.4 6.0 -6.0 -8.5 -17.1
4.5 4.3 -21.8 5.5 6.8 12.7 0.0 4.3 38.9 28.6 -11.6 -17.4 -31.7 -39.6
24.4 26.0 21.4 15.8 24.9 25.3 12.4 39.3 44.1 37.0 31.4 33.3 31.9 37.0
15.8 16.7 -9.8 7.7 10.3 26.6 2.1 29.1 28.1 -1.4 8.2 3.4 28.1 30.5
18.5 27.1 28.1 10.9 24.8 22.5 12.0 32.9 31.4 28.8 34.0 28.2 29.8 32.2
31.0 33.9 32.2 24.4 29.4 28.0 21.5 46.5 58.0 50.5 39.8 40.0 41.5 44.0
45.8 17.3 9.8 23.9 33.3 26.5 8.7 52.6 56.0 56.1 38.8 59.0 27.9 45.8
5.8 10.3 13.2 13.0 17.4 11.7 13.4 28.3 25.1 28.3 17.3 4.6 15.7 3.7
-7.9 0.0 0.0 -1.6 4.8 3.2 -1.4 -1.5 12.3 8.3 4.5 0.0 22.9 0.0
0.0 10.9 17.4 21.9 16.8 9.4 16.0 24.6 15.9 27.4 21.5 0.6 15.5 5.6
17.7 18.3 18.3 11.5 23.3 23.2 19.6 41.0 25.7 34.3 18.4 5.9 7.3 7.1
25.0 3.8 4.5 10.4 23.3 10.6 15.2 49.1 50.7 32.7 20.8 16.4 16.3 -1.7
43.3 21.4 65.4 64.8 31.7 31.7 41.4 -0.9 1.1 -16.0 38.1 26.9 13.7 17.7
47.4 20.0 61.0 64.1 49.2 15.6 65.3 16.4 5.3 25.0 35.8 58.1 0.0 39.1
47.9 20.2 73.4 67.6 27.0 33.3 48.4 6.3 8.8 -23.9 38.2 25.3 10.1 18.2
41.8 24.8 52.9 67.5 26.7 36.6 15.9 -11.1 -0.9 -21.6 39.8 22.4 32.9 13.1
25.0 19.2 71.2 56.7 31.7 37.9 45.5 -19.3 -11.9 -16.3 37.5 15.0 18.6 0.0
21.6 23.4 22.4 13.1 22.6 25.4 30.9 51.7 54.9 49.7 50.7 38.6 40.6 40.4
7.6 11.7 0.0 0.8 17.8 16.3 17.3 30.9 29.6 -1.8 36.6 10.0 37.9 35.5
13.3 21.6 17.1 5.2 19.1 23.8 26.6 41.3 47.0 39.7 41.9 21.8 28.0 26.0
32.2 20.3 37.8 15.9 28.0 36.2 37.6 60.3 57.1 58.8 60.8 46.4 49.5 52.0
38.5 33.5 15.5 33.6 25.0 21.5 38.4 67.7 76.9 71.8 61.5 72.4 56.5 60.8
3.5 10.6 19.4 13.8 17.1 19.4 23.2 40.8 35.8 39.3 25.4 18.7 27.2 13.1
-10.2 -4.3 15.6 -6.1 8.5 20.9 6.1 18.5 22.4 -21.4 3.6 12.8 29.1 9.1
-7.2 -2.9 15.7 14.5 5.1 11.3 17.5 27.2 21.0 28.9 22.0 3.0 25.9 13.7
18.9 8.3 22.8 19.8 30.1 26.4 25.0 47.3 34.2 53.1 31.4 32.0 24.7 10.7
18.0 33.0 20.7 23.7 26.3 25.3 47.4 64.6 65.0 58.1 39.2 32.1 31.5 17.6
59.6 67.6 63.3 59.9 66.9 63.7 68.6 61.3 60.3 61.5 61.6 62.9 60.9 68.5
54.2 51.1 69.4 43.8 61.0 55.8 41.8 60.0 50.0 55.4 67.0 61.3 46.0 68.5
59.7 60.1 58.8 65.3 62.0 60.3 71.8 54.8 55.9 60.3 54.2 56.0 64.7 66.1
65.0 70.8 64.6 61.6 75.3 67.8 71.8 66.5 64.2 62.4 62.7 72.7 71.5 69.3
56.6 79.6 64.9 63.2 68.8 69.6 77.2 63.3 66.3 64.5 67.6 63.5 58.3 72.3
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
12.4 17.6 24.0 18.8 24.4 23.3 28.5 24.0 24.1 20.4 24.2 22.1 16.7 21.1
59.6 67.6 63.3 59.9 66.9 63.7 68.6 61.3 60.3 61.5 61.6 62.9 60.9 68.5
60.0 63.9 58.3 62.5 65.9 61.0 64.7 62.7 59.9 57.2 62.1 61.4 60.4 66.5
10.0 25.3 24.7 21.6 22.1 24.1 31.2 19.1 8.0 12.8 17.1 23.1 25.2 18.6
39.9 47.7 47.6 46.0 36.4 34.1 44.7 43.4 40.7 26.3 32.7 42.5 42.6 44.0
6.4 19.7 21.1 11.8 22.4 31.8 24.1 23.4 32.1 26.5 35.3 18.7 17.9 16.7
-7.1 4.6 8.7 7.5 5.9 1.1 16.0 7.3 20.7 9.5 9.9 10.3 -3.7 3.3
-2.6 6.6 9.6 8.0 17.9 22.4 15.8 16.0 16.9 18.7 25.3 10.2 6.3 15.3
10.6 11.0 20.1 2.7 13.9 11.0 19.4 20.4 19.1 13.7 18.9 10.9 5.9 18.6
-21.8 -16.7 -2.6 -11.1 0.7 -4.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 -5.3 -8.6 -2.4 -13.3 -8.9
-19.5 -17.0 3.3 -3.9 3.4 2.4 5.6 -0.6 2.9 0.7 5.0 -6.5 -12.4 -10.6
0.8 -18.4 10.3 2.0 12.6 8.9 21.9 8.9 1.7 2.7 7.3 11.9 -5.4 0.0
42.2 40.1 41.0 43.9 41.6 42.3 38.5 38.9 44.7 43.1 44.6 37.5 38.3 37.5
47.6 55.4 46.6 50.4 54.0 51.0 45.6 44.3 54.9 55.9 49.7 41.8 46.3 39.9
39.9 32.2 39.4 42.4 36.3 39.9 36.0 38.1 40.1 36.9 43.6 35.1 36.4 35.7
39.0 32.6 36.9 39.0 34.4 36.0 33.9 34.2 39.1 36.5 40.6 35.7 32.1 36.9
46.4 45.8 49.2 47.5 49.8 50.0 49.3 56.3 56.9 55.7 55.1 49.6 51.6 47.9
51.8 55.3 59.7 57.0 58.6 59.7 61.6 70.2 67.9 69.7 62.7 59.3 63.6 56.6
47.6 42.0 44.9 43.7 46.1 46.7 43.1 48.9 49.6 50.8 52.6 45.7 44.2 43.1
39.9 40.0 43.0 41.7 44.6 43.6 43.4 49.8 53.1 46.6 49.9 43.8 46.9 43.9
36.7 35.9 26.4 30.7 31.4 32.9 11.3 -10.7 -0.1 -17.7 1.0 -8.3 6.1 8.9
25.5 14.6 12.0 22.4 28.1 25.7 -4.3 -31.1 -17.4 -23.0 -8.9 -18.2 -2.0 -1.4
-11.5 -16.3 -4.0 -6.3 -10.0 4.9 -15.1 30.5 22.6 25.7 9.2 17.3 6.0 11.4
41.2 41.9 47.0 43.3 34.3 29.8 17.8 -16.1 -7.0 -14.3 13.4 1.2 12.0 21.7
46.7 41.8 46.6 58.6 37.1 28.6 24.4 -12.0 -12.9 -16.0 14.3 4.3 3.1 11.5
44.7 44.1 45.7 52.3 30.6 24.0 18.3 -12.0 -8.0 -17.0 8.0 8.9 8.6 11.8
51.6 55.0 61.1 44.0 45.1 40.9 26.9 -14.3 -6.0 -4.0 35.5 13.8 18.0 31.8
27.5 23.2 35.4 25.6 26.3 10.9 5.2 -22.9 -20.0 -23.0 7.4 -5.2 2.3 14.0
55.6 59.3 57.1 53.4 46.9 42.6 26.1 -14.9 0.0 -5.0 12.6 10.3 20.0 26.4
41.2 47.9 58.0 45.1 30.6 33.4 6.6 -23.4 -8.9 -23.3 10.3 -5.2 9.1 23.9
24.9 26.4 39.1 31.3 18.9 11.1 5.2 -19.1 -10.6 -17.3 6.3 -9.8 5.4 10.9
52.1 53.6 54.3 51.1 46.0 47.1 29.1 -7.7 0.6 -9.3 19.8 0.0 22.0 34.8
51.3 55.0 58.6 47.7 42.6 40.6 27.8 -15.1 -1.4 -7.0 23.5 6.9 26.0 39.8
39.0 37.2 34.6 38.5 20.9 20.3 17.4 -12.9 -8.6 -11.3 12.0 2.0 6.6 21.8
43.3 40.1 42.9 36.5 38.3 32.9 18.6 -13.1 0.9 -20.0 8.9 -2.9 13.7 14.6
16.6 19.5 31.1 35.9 28.0 25.1 7.7 -26.3 -8.6 -18.3 2.0 -8.9 9.4 19.5
2.9 7.4 2.9 6.6 4.9 3.1 2.3 1.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.6 2.6
3.7 2.6 4.0 2.3 1.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.1 4.3 3.7 4.9 2.0 3.4
12.9 15.4 11.7 13.5 14.9 9.7 22.0 17.1 17.1 15.0 18.6 15.8 18.3 12.0
40.7 32.9 30.0 38.5 38.9 40.6 35.1 41.7 35.4 33.7 40.3 39.7 36.0 40.6
38.7 34.3 39.1 33.0 33.1 37.1 30.0 35.1 36.9 43.3 31.7 32.5 35.4 36.9
1.1 7.4 12.3 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.6 1.1 4.6 1.0 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.6
350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350
349 350 350 348 350 350 350 350 350 300 350 348 350 350
99.7 100.0 100.0 99.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7 100 99 100 100
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Table E.2.1.4: Consumer Expectations Survey - South East
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -26.6 -33.1 -29.8 -13.4 -14.0 -11.1 4.0 2.9 -3.2 -6.5 -11.3 -20.5 1.4 -3.0 -1.3 -8.7
Next Quarter 20.0 22.2 19.8 24.9 27.7 22.5 35.3 37.1 33.4 40.7 26.8 25.3 43.8 30.9 37.5 28.3
Next 12 months 24.9 26.4 15.5 28.1 37.1 32.4 43.3 38.6 45.0 41.9 27.3 25.1 43.6 35.6 34.3 23.8
Economic Condition -36.9 -39.5 -36.3 -9.4 -3.3 -1.4 7.7 8.5 -6.6 -7.6 -2.9 -28.0 -4.5 10.1 -1.6 -1.0
Under N 20,000 per month -41.8 -36.5 -40.0 -7.0 -25.6 -10.4 -3.2 -8.6 -11.8 -16.1 -11.9 -41.4 -19.8 -15.2 -8.0 -42.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -33.3 -38.2 -31.9 -15.5 -2.8 7.6 18.6 13.0 3.6 -4.1 -6.3 -26.9 0.9 15.4 2.1 0.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -40.3 -58.8 -40.0 -2.0 18.2 -12.0 1.7 29.3 -2.0 -10.0 16.7 -19.4 3.9 7.7 -4.7 18.1
Over N 100,000 per month -47.7 -42.9 -50.0 0.0 -10.0 25.0 6.5 0.0 -26.2 31.3 8.3 -22.9 -2.7 29.5 11.8 21.4
Family Financial Situation -29.4 -36.3 -25.8 -14.1 -28.1 -15.9 -7.0 -9.5 -13.6 -16.6 -23.1 -16.4 -10.5 -22.4 -6.2 -29.4
Under N 20,000 per month -28.2 -31.5 -18.3 -18.0 -4.7 -33.8 -7.0 -11.7 -22.9 -25.8 -45.2 -8.6 -30.2 -43.5 11.0 -30.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -34.0 -24.5 -30.3 -19.1 -20.8 -27.8 -3.1 -14.3 -12.5 -17.6 -13.3 -19.8 -13.2 -28.8 -7.2 -29.2
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -25.0 -6.5 -23.3 2.0 0.0 -18.0 -8.3 8.5 -12.2 4.3 -8.3 -18.5 11.8 -15.4 -13.4 -32.8
Over N 100,000 per month -16.7 -4.5 -41.7 25.0 10.0 -12.5 -17.7 -29.2 11.9 -25.0 -12.5 -14.6 8.1 -2.3 -14.7 -19.0
Family Income -13.5 -23.7 -27.4 -16.7 -10.6 -16.1 11.4 9.8 10.6 4.7 -7.9 -17.2 19.0 3.4 4.0 4.4
Under N 20,000 per month -5.1 -16.5 -33.3 -16.0 -14.0 -27.3 -3.8 -15.6 12.5 -3.2 -27.0 -12.1 36.5 -17.4 20.0 -24.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -15.7 -27.6 -17.0 -25.5 -1.9 -5.6 -9.9 27.3 5.4 2.4 -6.3 -21.7 14.5 19.2 -5.2 3.8
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -27.8 -52.9 -53.3 -4.0 -27.3 -12.0 -23.3 7.3 24.5 17.1 -2.8 -19.4 13.2 -3.8 4.7 20.7
Over N 100,000 per month 4.5 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 -16.7 25.8 41.7 -14.3 37.5 66.7 -4.2 8.1 9.1 5.9 19.0
Economic Condition -4.1 -8.1 -5.3 14.1 30.4 24.0 29.0 38.7 42.7 34.7 4.9 18.4 36.7 34.7 28.2 12.8
Under N 20,000 per month -10.6 -8.7 -21.1 25.8 19.1 16.7 3.8 34.8 20.8 4.9 -8.3 -12.0 34.7 10.0 17.9 -15.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -6.1 -4.0 -1.8 3.5 26.9 29.3 39.6 41.9 46.8 45.8 -2.6 13.8 43.6 44.4 25.2 3.9
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 4.7 -14.6 11.7 25.0 44.2 20.6 28.8 35.7 37.5 40.6 35.0 40.0 43.6 41.7 30.7 22.1
Over N 100,000 per month 2.3 -22.7 -31.8 40.0 50.0 42.3 21.6 42.3 62.2 35.3 16.7 35.0 24.2 17.3 46.3 43.6
Family Financial Situation 2.3 -7.6 -13.7 -3.8 6.5 10.8 20.7 22.6 35.4 26.3 4.7 -4.4 19.0 7.3 8.8 4.4
Under N 20,000 per month 8.2 -1.6 -28.9 -6.5 14.3 -1.4 -5.0 17.4 22.2 24.4 -11.7 -21.7 32.7 -6.7 33.3 -27.6
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month 3.0 -6.9 -3.6 -2.8 2.8 17.1 16.7 18.6 36.4 22.6 -5.3 -12.8 9.3 1.9 -5.9 -3.5
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -1.3 -25.0 -30.0 -4.2 18.5 11.8 42.5 36.7 35.4 33.3 32.5 13.8 10.6 13.0 10.8 22.1
Over N100,000 per month 4.8 -9.1 -18.2 0.0 -16.7 38.5 37.8 15.4 45.9 29.4 46.7 13.3 27.3 11.5 22.2 20.5
Family Income 61.7 82.2 78.4 64.4 46.3 32.8 56.1 50.0 22.2 61.1 70.7 62.0 75.8 50.6 75.6 67.6
Under N20,000 per month 56.0 92.1 73.7 64.5 29.4 26.1 80.0 43.5 50.0 61.0 68.3 73.9 75.5 46.7 84.6 72.4
Over N 100,000 per month 54.5 72.7 100.0 100.0 36.4 38.5 62.2 76.9 16.2 29.4 80.0 63.3 74.2 30.8 77.8 43.6
Economic Condition 5.8 10.1 2.2 23.9 39.9 33.1 37.6 45.6 46.2 41.1 14.9 19.8 38.7 33.7 27.0 7.6
Under N 20,000 per month -25.7 7.4 -26.6 23.8 21.4 30.7 23.5 12.9 43.3 27.0 -6.1 -26.4 34.3 23.1 6.8 -22.6
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 3.4 11.2 6.6 20.1 43.1 28.8 41.4 54.5 37.8 44.2 16.5 18.4 38.4 47.1 27.1 -3.6
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 22.5 10.0 23.0 31.5 55.6 33.8 48.5 47.7 50.0 35.2 21.3 36.8 55.2 36.2 18.1 20.3
Over N 100,000 per month 3.4 10.7 -20.0 29.2 16.7 50.0 22.6 61.1 61.3 63.0 52.9 36.3 30.6 21.9 57.3 30.2
Family Financial Situation 1.0 1.6 -11.6 0.7 11.4 11.8 30.8 22.1 35.8 30.5 4.7 0.4 26.2 20.7 16.0 5.6
Under N 20,000 per month 0.0 -4.3 -43.8 0.0 14.3 5.3 23.5 2.9 16.7 10.8 -14.3 -25.0 37.3 -38.5 -27.3 -25.8
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -4.2 11.2 -1.9 1.4 7.8 4.5 28.0 36.4 36.6 29.1 -1.2 -3.8 26.8 34.3 10.4 -8.2
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 11.5 -8.6 -10.8 -3.7 19.4 12.5 25.0 24.2 37.0 38.6 22.5 1.5 18.8 27.5 26.4 20.3
Over N 100,000 per month -2.3 -14.3 -13.3 8.3 0.0 47.8 52.4 7.4 47.5 52.2 47.1 32.5 22.4 18.8 26.8 31.3
Family Income 68.0 67.6 55.8 59.8 60.2 52.4 61.6 48.3 53.0 54.2 62.3 55.2 66.0 52.3 60.0 58.2
Under N 20,000 per month 56.9 60.6 42.2 50.0 71.4 56.1 55.9 52.9 63.3 58.1 64.3 -63.5 66.7 42.3 40.9 71.0
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 68.5 69.1 52.4 63.2 63.7 52.3 62.4 60.6 61.0 58.1 65.3 -83.3 68.9 61.4 66.7 59.3
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 75.3 70.0 56.8 59.3 52.8 43.8 64.7 50.0 39.1 53.4 51.3 -31.8 54.2 55.1 56.6 51.4
Over N 100,000 per month 68.2 75.0 30.0 58.3 50.0 58.7 59.5 7.4 45.0 34.8 67.6 -24.0 70.1 39.1 62.2 58.3
Table E.2.1.4: Consumer Expectations Survey - South East
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average 6.9 7.0 13.1 -2.6 13.4 9.7 17.6 11.9 19.0 17.7 14.0 7.5 17.8 17.6 25.0 -0.5
Food & Other household needs 68.0 67.6 55.8 59.8 46.3 52.4 61.6 48.3 53.0 54.2 62.3 55.2 66.0 52.3 60.0 58.2
Education 63.6 59.0 61.1 60.3 57.7 43.8 59.1 49.2 52.8 56.8 53.1 46.8 60.7 48.7 48.2 52.8
Debt Payment -8.0 8.1 29.0 -0.8 5.7 7.8 -3.0 -5.1 -3.8 -2.7 7.3 -6.4 13.1 19.7 13.2 -4.8
Medical Expenses 12.9 23.8 33.4 7.2 44.7 13.8 13.3 4.4 8.2 0.6 19.4 9.0 23.4 10.4 15.4 10.4
Savings 5.5 2.7 9.0 -7.3 -17.9 18.8 33.9 24.6 32.6 38.2 12.1 18.2 24.1 20.3 30.0 -1.6
Purchase of Appliances 3.0 3.5 14.2 -22.7 0.0 -1.1 14.8 10.8 22.8 13.9 11.8 -5.0 12.7 11.3 31.2 -17.0
Investment -8.0 -5.9 12.6 -17.1 12.2 1.9 18.0 14.0 21.8 17.7 0.4 4.8 11.1 7.1 32.2 -15.0
Purchase of Consumer durables 26.2 16.7 0.0 1.5 -8.9 11.0 16.7 14.0 24.8 23.2 18.8 17.8 24.1 23.7 34.8 -8.2
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -27.8 -43.3 29.0 -36.4 -0.8 -21.0 -17.6 17.9 -4.6 -14.3 -19.4 -19.8 -28.8 0.7 6.2 -31.4
Purchase of House -51.2 -47.8 -46.6 -45.1 8.9 -26.4 -19.1 -39.7 -8.9 -8.4 -34.6 -28.0 -25.4 -15.0 -0.4 -37.6
Others -8.6 -7.3 -52.9 -28.1 -0.8 5.7 16.5 -6.7 10.1 15.8 22.8 -10.2 15.5 15.1 4.6 -11.2
Buying Conditions Index 31.0 25.6 32.0 31.6 65.8 67.2 64.5 45.2 37.8 46.0 36.9 35.0 43.3 70.6 41.3 85.3
Motor Vehicle 28.3 18.5 20.5 29.7 67.9 70.4 68.4 19.7 31.7 46.5 36.7 33.0 34.9 68.2 35.2 84.1
House & Lot 21.4 20.2 15.5 23.3 74.2 73.2 69.3 61.1 26.5 39.1 28.0 30.5 35.6 67.8 36.8 83.9
Buying Intentions Index 37.5 37.7 38.2 35.8 43.8 40.0 51.5 41.5 55.9 50.4 41.9 42.8 48.6 52.5 49.4 76.3
Motor Vehicle 40.7 31.0 27.0 22.3 40.3 34.7 44.2 35.0 52.6 46.7 41.6 39.4 40.2 50.7 46.1 75.4
House & Lot 21.4 31.2 27.5 34.7 35.4 29.8 44.9 28.6 47.4 39.1 31.8 38.8 42.3 46.5 44.2 73.3
Unemployment Rate Index 47.65 48.4 38.2 51.1 36.6 29.1 32.4 6.2 0.8 11.3 28.1 27.8 14.2 26.7 27.4 41.4
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 14.6 28.1 -15.8 18.2 18.7 10.2 11.4 7.2 -13.1 -4.2 6.8 16.8 26.2 18.0 17.6 3.6
Exchange Rate -10.9 -35.6 36.3 -10.6 -20.3 -2.1 20.7 2.2 20.2 -2.1 -6.2 -2.0 4.4 16.7 -5.6 -8.0
Change in Price Index 48.3 64.3 60.1 55.0 35.4 24.3 50.6 39.1 13.7 40.4 53.8 37.5 46.0 47.8 52.9 31.2
Food 38.7 88.1 64.2 68.2 39.9 24.7 62.4 38.1 29.3 50.0 70.2 50.8 61.3 57.3 74.4 64.4
Clothing & Footwaer 57.7 70.8 68.4 54.5 33.3 32.2 62.4 38.7 14.7 40.5 62.3 41.2 55.7 47.3 58.0 16.4
Electricity 54.6 57.3 58.9 50.7 23.6 22.0 46.5 44.3 19.2 43.2 54.5 49.2 51.6 46.0 61.2 32.8
Water 31.6 41.1 47.3 31.9 2.5 9.7 32.5 16.0 -0.5 24.2 32.4 28.8 23.8 32.7 38.0 14.8
House Rent 79 76.2 82.6 78.8 60.2 47.4 71.4 66.0 30.8 57.4 74.9 58.8 68.9 65.3 72.0 58.4
Transportation 67.1 81.7 83.1 72.8 30.9 22.1 53.6 32.5 7.6 41.6 69.7 50.4 68.5 64.6 70.8 46.8
Communication 19.6 46.5 52.1 47.0 25.2 8.1 30.4 13.9 -7.6 26.9 38.2 12.8 23.4 30.7 19.2 19.2
Education 70.8 73.5 61.6 69.0 57.8 39.3 57.8 58.3 23.7 43.7 54.5 33.2 53.3 50.0 52.8 36.8
Medical Care 43.4 66.5 74.2 61.4 56.9 38.2 51.5 43.8 12.1 37.9 57.0 40.0 48.8 56.6 50.8 32.0
Personal Care 27.1 47.0 42.6 43.9 38.2 8.6 41.8 40.7 15.6 30.0 36.2 31.2 31.4 38.0 42.4 15.6
Hotel & Restaurant 53.6 63.8 47.4 56.8 36.6 21.5 62.4 46.4 16.2 49.5 58.1 29.2 37.0 46.7 57.2 14.4
Others 36.3 58.9 38.4 25.0 19.5 17.2 35.0 30.4 3.5 39.5 37.2 24.0 27.8 38.7 37.6 22.8
Primary School 7.1 4.9 6.3 0.0 0.0 8.1 1.7 2.1 4.0 5.8 9.9 1.2 4.4 0.7 0.8 9.2
Junior School 1.4 9.2 3.2 4.5 0.8 5.9 0.8 2.1 4.5 6.8 3.1 6.0 3.2 2.0 0.4 4.0
Senior School 25.4 16.2 22.6 12.1 12.2 24.2 12.7 21.6 18.7 28.9 31.4 18.0 20.6 16.7 11.2 22.0
Higher non-university education 18.3 31.9 27.4 37.1 27.6 31.7 29.5 24.2 25.8 12.6 25.7 26.0 23.0 30.0 32.0 19.2
University 46.4 37.8 38.4 45.5 59.3 29.0 54.9 49.0 46.0 45.3 29.8 47.2 42.7 49.3 54.4 44.0
None 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 6.0 1.3 1.2 1.6
Number of Sample Households 300 200 200 200 200 200.0 200 200 200 200 200 250 250 150 250 250
Number of Respondents 295 185 190 132 123 186 187 194 198 190 191 250 248 150 250 250
Response Rate 98.3 92.5 95.0 66.0 61.5 93.0 93.5 97.0 99.0 95.0 95.5 100.0 99.2 100.0 100.0 100.0
2013 2014 2015 2016
-18.2 -10.4 -15.6 4.2 -3.3 -1.9 2.1 7.9 -1.7 -13.2 -11.7 -14.2 -40.9 -38.4 -62.8
24.4 23.5 18.9 41.5 28.3 23.9 30.9 44.7 31.9 27.6 19.7 29.1 10.7 17.1 -4.2
22.7 17.5 18.7 42.4 30.1 26.9 29.9 36.6 31.8 30.6 32.1 34.4 12.5 20.4 -2.5
3.3 2.8 -13.4 2.2 -4.5 -6.6 7.0 6.9 -2.6 -14.8 -14.4 -13.1 -42.8 -48.4 -69.6
1.5 10.2 -8.1 -4.8 -41.3 -6.1 18.8 15.0 -6.8 -27.3 -54.3 -60.5 -53.2 -51.4 -77.4
8.0 5.7 -22.6 -5.4 13.3 -6.1 0.0 -8.5 -1.8 13.6 -9.4 -32.6 -54.5 -56.5 -72.7
-13.2 -9.4 -3.0 25.0 20.2 -2.8 14.8 22.5 -3.7 8.3 -3.5 -7.5 -33.3 -41.9 -64.4
16.7 0.0 5.0 11.8 20.8 -15.6 4.8 31.7 0.0 40.6 -13.0 40.2 -27.6 -35.0 -61.6
-40.7 -21.6 -10.6 2.4 -10.4 -8.6 -9.2 -10.3 -8.0 -24.0 -24.2 -32.5 -48.8 -49.0 -51.6
-46.9 -20.4 -9.7 0.0 -18.6 -30.3 -18.8 -27.5 -11.4 -18.2 -20.0 -64.5 -43.6 -55.6 -65.1
-49.2 -21.5 -10.9 -2.1 -8.7 -8.0 -11.8 -19.4 -9.1 -1.1 -29.1 -29.9 -61.5 -52.5 -48.9
-34.2 -35.8 -6.8 7.1 4.8 5.6 3.7 2.9 -6.8 -4.8 -19.7 -31.6 -47.1 -46.3 -52.3
-7.7 6.0 -22.5 16.2 -20.8 -12.5 -9.5 10.0 -5.4 -3.1 -20.4 -13.7 -32.9 -36.7 -39.5
-17.2 -12.4 -22.8 8.1 4.9 9.6 8.4 27.0 5.6 -0.8 3.6 2.8 -31.2 -17.9 -67.2
-3.0 -16.3 -19.4 0.0 -7.0 12.1 10.0 20.0 0.0 -27.3 0.0 -42.1 -66.0 -30.6 -73.6
-18.9 -5.7 -28.6 0.0 8.7 2.3 5.3 13.2 2.7 0.0 9.4 -6.9 -33.3 -20.0 -61.4
-29.8 -18.9 -13.6 14.3 23.8 24.1 20.4 49.3 0.0 45.2 -7.0 3.4 -17.2 -8.8 -66.7
0.0 -24.0 -20.0 41.2 -16.7 12.5 0.0 40.0 29.7 56.3 11.1 49.0 -15.8 -20.0 -72.1
19.9 16.2 4.4 36.3 32.0 20.8 27.8 38.5 33.2 28.0 19.2 21.2 -9.0 -7.5 -31.6
6.9 9.4 -4.2 79.1 -20.7 -12.5 27.1 81.3 45.8 8.3 -29.5 -18.4 -8.3 -5.8 -47.6
15.7 15.5 -16.3 19.0 43.5 15.5 17.0 20.8 23.4 35.1 23.5 -2.3 -11.8 -17.6 -26.1
12.6 21.0 42.1 54.9 47.5 44.6 32.9 53.4 37.2 58.3 30.5 34.3 -15.9 -2.3 -30.4
52.3 13.0 46.0 16.3 25.0 15.2 44.3 62.2 42.0 72.7 8.1 53.5 9.3 9.4 -30.2
-28.5 -14.8 -26.2 14.5 1.6 1.2 10.4 25.0 9.2 10.4 -9.2 19.0 -12.4 -0.4 -40.3
3.4 -3.1 -45.8 7.0 -19.5 25.0 -29.2 37.5 0.0 -33.3 -22.7 -31.6 -47.2 -12.0 -29.3
-40.0 -29.4 -27.5 5.6 2.1 -24.4 15.5 5.4 -10.4 -29.7 -4.3 -7.8 -18.0 1.0 -35.6
-28.6 0.0 -28.1 25.5 30.0 27.7 15.2 49.3 13.3 52.1 -11.0 34.8 -4.9 1.2 -44.6
-27.9 -14.8 4.0 30.4 -16.7 19.6 11.4 43.2 45.5 54.5 -12.9 57.9 14.0 0.0 -53.5
81.9 69.2 78.5 73.8 51.2 49.6 54.4 70.6 53.2 44.4 49.2 47.2 53.6 59.3 59.2
86.2 53.1 83.3 72.1 73.2 55.0 50.0 62.5 58.3 83.3 77.3 57.9 41.7 61.5 58.5
84.5 80.9 86.4 83.3 47.6 46.2 55.3 72.3 64.6 48.6 56.5 42.2 58.4 67.6 64.1
76.9 72.8 64.9 54.9 30.0 50.8 53.2 79.5 44.9 33.3 48.8 56.2 69.5 57.0 67.6
88.4 29.6 60.0 73.9 77.8 54.3 56.8 48.6 45.5 4.5 3.2 31.6 23.3 37.5 34.9
8.0 9.0 10.6 37.3 25.2 13.4 24.4 24.4 26.6 16.8 30.6 27.6 -4.6 4.7 -18.0
11.8 6.5 -2.8 45.0 -39.3 12.5 26.5 10.0 16.7 0.0 -34.4 -23.7 -6.2 -34.6 -56.8
-9.6 -6.6 1.5 34.5 31.4 9.0 18.9 8.3 12.7 1.9 11.4 5.5 -16.5 2.7 -25.7
9.5 9.4 18.8 46.4 36.0 21.4 22.5 38.8 24.5 25.0 51.5 37.4 -2.2 -7.9 -1.3
19.8 36.5 39.7 30.0 42.0 10.7 34.1 36.7 46.8 50.0 44.2 48.0 11.5 38.7 -5.7
-4.4 -8.4 -21.0 23.4 2.9 7.2 13.6 21.4 17.6 19.6 0.8 29.6 -8.0 -2.0 -36.8
-18.8 -17.4 -43.8 10.0 -21.4 10.0 5.9 0.0 33.3 0.0 -25.0 11.1 -20.8 -38.5 -54.1
-16.9 -34.9 -30.5 13.6 0.0 -8.1 6.7 2.8 -2.8 -11.1 -11.4 -3.1 -31.8 -7.7 -36.8
-7.3 5.3 -18.1 43.6 14.3 21.1 20.0 40.0 12.7 40.4 7.8 29.7 2.2 1.1 -34.2
17.0 14.6 27.6 28.3 28.0 21.4 17.5 32.7 47.6 62.5 18.6 62.2 19.2 11.3 -29.5
64.4 52.0 66.4 66.5 62.2 60.2 51.8 64.1 51.2 55.3 65.0 46.2 50.2 58.6 47.2
29.4 36.4 69.4 58.3 48.2 55.0 32.4 30.0 0.0 75.0 40.6 7.9 31.3 50.0 14.9
60.2 50.0 71.8 71.4 63.7 64.4 53.3 67.4 54.2 55.6 67.6 50.8 46.5 50.6 54.0
67.3 56.9 60.4 63.6 61.6 61.0 56.3 65.9 50.0 57.7 66.5 47.8 65.7 70.2 48.7
71.9 56.3 55.2 65.0 70.0 50.0 49.2 57.1 54.8 50.0 65.1 50.0 38.5 54.7 56.6
2013 2014 2015 2016
11.8 7.4 -1.4 14.2 -9.9 10.7 6.2 22.8 13.4 28.8 12.2 10.5 -2.6 0.3 -5.9
64.4 52.0 66.4 66.5 62.2 60.2 51.8 64.1 51.2 55.3 65.0 46.2 50.2 58.6 47.2
61.3 58.4 78.8 58.1 57.3 62.4 53.4 65.5 66.4 69.9 65.4 53.2 42.6 43.1 43.5
5.2 9.4 -21.2 9.1 -18.5 -4.2 2.6 21.5 -12.6 14.6 13.8 13.7 -7.8 -2.9 -8.0
35.8 21.4 40.2 4.6 15.2 32.0 21.8 40.7 9.0 24.3 28.0 16.3 11.8 7.8 0.8
-5.9 -8.0 -20.2 31.5 -19.3 5.0 5.2 20.6 -5.0 34.1 12.4 11.9 -7.8 -2.5 -20.8
-6.3 -4.4 -12.4 3.6 -27.0 13.4 -11.0 14.3 9.0 31.9 -3.2 4.4 -17.2 -15.5 -21.6
-12.7 -11.0 -34.4 4.2 -38.2 -6.6 -4.6 7.3 3.2 14.2 -6.4 3.4 -18.2 -14.1 -20.6
7.3 -4.8 1.6 4.8 -7.1 15.4 0.6 26.6 18.4 28.8 5.0 -1.8 -5.8 0.2 2.0
-17.9 -11.2 -47.4 -20.0 -59.8 -24.6 -18.2 -2.2 0.0 13.3 -22.8 -2.4 -27.8 -25.4 -33.0
-11.9 -20.4 -56.6 -18.1 -49.2 -36.2 -23.0 -11.3 -5.4 4.0 -19.2 -17.1 -29.8 -32.9 -36.4
10.0 -0.4 -9.8 12.3 -25.0 0.6 -10.4 3.6 13.0 26.1 -3.6 -12.1 -19.0 -12.5 -17.6
47.2 36.5 26.3 43.9 31.9 39.7 42.7 41.7 40.2 40.1 35.5 39.4 27.8 29.6 18.5
41.4 43.8 38.6 54.0 52.4 54.8 54.2 63.5 52.8 49.6 51.8 51.4 34.4 41.1 16.4
33.3 34.1 22.6 42.6 27.9 31.8 37.4 30.0 35.5 35.9 34.4 35.7 26.9 25.6 21.1
66.8 31.7 17.7 35.1 15.5 32.4 36.6 31.7 32.4 34.8 20.4 31.0 22.1 22.1 18.1
48.5 38.6 28.1 47.9 35.6 43.1 46.6 45.6 43.5 50.5 41.5 48.8 35.7 36.5 28.0
73.9 45.8 39.6 61.7 51.4 53.6 56.8 60.7 58.8 59.8 50.4 64.7 46.0 49.0 31.6
34.4 35.1 24.5 44.6 31.8 42.6 42.1 38.7 40.0 47.6 42.4 39.0 31.8 32.7 27.2
37.2 34.8 20.3 37.5 23.6 33.0 41.0 37.3 31.8 44.1 31.8 42.7 29.2 27.8 25.1
44.2 38.6 48.6 19.2 51.2 40.8 28.2 51.0 32.2 26.5 38.2 8.5 38.8 35.6 36.4
11.3 19.2 -17.2 29.4 -6.5 -12.0 1.6 -8.9 -28.8 -10.6 -10.4 10.5 8.0 7.3 12.4
-13.3 -16.4 -57.2 -15.7 0.4 -17.6 -5.2 -9.7 -16.8 -23.0 -3.2 -4.8 -26.4 -27.3 -37.3
36.2 47.1 38.8 49.5 34.6 33.0 42.0 43.5 35.4 36.6 40.4 53.6 52.5 50.6 53.8
68.7 66.4 82.4 74.6 55.9 48.4 51.2 70.2 56.4 51.2 49.6 62.1 59.2 57.3 59.2
57.1 60.8 80.0 69.4 27.3 33.2 46.0 52.4 40.0 48.4 50.8 62.5 42.4 51.2 57.6
31.3 42.8 27.2 51.2 32.2 40.0 48.8 54.4 18.8 37.6 41.2 70.2 66.8 47.6 48.0
26.5 15.6 1.6 2.0 7.0 13.6 28.8 29.0 12.4 12.4 21.2 35.5 42.0 35.4 41.6
71.9 64.8 78.8 67.3 74.7 72.0 70.0 71.4 60.0 66.8 62.0 62.1 80.0 70.7 70.4
52.2 52.4 56.0 56.0 64.9 54.4 58.0 33.9 38.8 41.2 20.0 56.0 66.0 56.9 71.6
25.3 26.8 5.2 27.8 29.8 21.6 32.4 15.7 26.0 21.2 1.2 47.2 38.8 47.2 45.6
40.1 55.2 42.4 66.9 49.8 38.4 50.0 51.6 40.4 52.8 59.6 68.1 63.6 61.0 51.6
25.3 62.8 42.8 56.5 17.1 42.4 40.8 58.1 37.6 46.4 52.8 55.2 60.0 57.7 57.2
26.9 39.2 24.0 34.7 16.7 7.6 20.0 24.2 31.6 20.4 38.4 42.7 38.4 37.4 46.8
20.1 51.6 22.4 50.0 14.7 17.6 35.2 39.9 35.6 27.6 48.4 41.9 42.4 47.2 44.0
-11.2 27.2 2.4 37.5 25.3 6.8 22.8 21.0 26.8 12.8 39.6 39.1 30.0 37.4 51.6
21.7 4.4 1.2 5.6 4.5 6.4 6.0 4.8 0.4 0.0 3.6 0.4 4.8 4.9 4.0
2.4 4.4 4.0 5.2 2.4 2.0 4.8 1.2 1.6 2.7 1.6 4.0 2.4 3.7 2.0
15.3 19.6 32.0 18.5 36.2 28.0 20.4 23.0 23.2 24.8 24.0 24.2 24.8 23.2 14.1
21.7 23.2 32.0 20.6 27.2 26.8 28.0 34.7 34.0 37.2 28.8 22.2 24.8 26.4 22.5
34.5 47.2 30.4 45.2 28.9 35.6 39.6 35.9 40.0 34.5 41.2 49.2 42.4 40.7 57.4
4.4 1.2 0.4 4.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0
250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
249 250 250 248 246 250 250 250 250 250 250 248 250 246 249
99.6 100.0 100.0 99.2 98.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99 100 98 100
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Table E.2.1.5: Consumer Expectations Survey - South South
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -31.8 -19.7 -28.6 -2.3 -16.9 -4.2 -5.7 6.2 9.0 3.0 2.6 -18.0 -4.0 -5.4 -14.7 -1.2 -5.0
Next Quarter 11.0 26.1 -21.8 25.6 17.8 24.7 30.9 34.5 44.3 29.6 36.7 34.7 30.1 31.7 30.3 30.9 35.6
Next 12 months 13.9 26.6 11.8 32.2 25.8 40.4 32.7 37.0 44.8 33.4 30.2 33.9 32.5 30.4 34.5 39.5 27.6
Economic Condition -37.0 -37.1 -41.3 1.2 -21.5 1.4 10.3 16.8 21.1 14.9 8.3 -12.9 -1.2 -5.5 -21.1 -0.1 -2.8
Under N 20,000 per month -34.1 -37.0 -59.2 3.7 -34.1 15.1 -9.5 11.4 25.0 -25.9 -15.0 -23.1 2.4 -6.2 -20.4 -15.3 -9.0
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -39.0 -37.7 -13.3 16.7 -8.0 2.3 15.7 23.0 19.3 22.3 18.4 -5.4 1.7 -5.4 -26.0 1.2 3.7
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -53.6 -38.6 -48.4 26.1 -20.0 -2.6 21.4 14.4 21.4 21.0 7.7 -6.2 1.2 11.9 -20.8 3.6 -1.6
Over N 100,000 per month -22.2 -32.4 -100.0 1.2 10.0 -37.5 15.6 11.7 21.1 15.8 9.1 -31.7 -23.5 -20.2 -10.5 7.7 -12.5
Family Financial Situation -20.5 -10.3 -7.7 -1.9 -19.8 -13.9 -28.1 -20.4 -17.0 -17.9 -16.9 -22.4 -11.2 -6.8 -16.5 -5.7 -7.7
Under N 20,000 per month -17.1 -9.0 -17.5 -11.8 -4.9 -14.2 -17.6 -31.4 -7.8 -16.7 -18.3 -34.3 -33.9 -14.8 -7.7 -12.2 -21.3
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -20.6 -5.0 -5.1 2.8 -28.0 -18.9 -20.4 -31.8 -29.5 -19.9 -30.9 -18.0 -6.5 7.1 -25.5 -6.0 -1.6
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -21.4 0.0 3.1 -8.3 -10.0 -31.6 -28.6 -10.0 -10.2 -11.0 -13.5 -26.7 -0.6 -9.5 -15.7 -3.6 -8.6
Over N 100,000 per month -22.2 -1.5 100.0 6.5 50.0 -6.3 3.1 5.0 10.5 -26.3 7.6 -11.0 -8.8 -25.5 -11.8 0.0 -4.8
Family Income -37.8 -11.9 -36.7 -6.2 -9.3 0.0 0.7 22.3 22.9 12.1 16.4 -18.6 0.4 -3.8 -6.5 2.3 -4.4
Under N 20,000 per month -41.5 -10.9 -48.3 -20.6 -12.2 41.5 -16.2 8.6 12.5 0.0 13.3 -13.0 -17.7 2.5 -21.1 -18.4 -4.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -47.1 -20.8 -24.5 3.7 4.0 -16.7 9.3 25.7 22.7 16.5 20.6 -21.6 7.8 2.5 -3.1 8.0 3.3
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -14.3 11.4 -31.3 5.6 -33.3 -7.9 7.1 28.9 30.6 18.0 21.2 -5.5 6.2 7.1 -5.6 8.2 0.0
Over N 100,000 per month -11.1 -35.3 -100.0 -17.4 20.0 -50.0 0.0 20.0 21.1 -10.5 3.0 -41.5 -2.9 -40.4 10.5 -7.7 -26.9
Economic Condition -11.5 2.3 -13.4 10.9 -3.5 20.9 32.3 31.2 43.6 44.7 21.5 40.3 31.5 40.9 23.7 24.5 32.7
Under N 20,000 per month 35.0 -2.9 -29.5 -1.9 -21.4 51.2 23.5 17.2 36.0 25.0 -8.3 62.8 11.4 51.0 17.3 -12.5 48.0
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -11.9 -7.5 -8.2 -2.7 -4.8 22.1 12.1 34.7 35.5 34.2 30.7 37.5 37.9 111.0 14.0 30.2 38.0
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -17.3 21.1 -2.8 48.0 16.7 34.5 39.5 24.5 51.8 57.8 17.9 41.5 34.9 62.0 30.2 34.6 25.3
Over N 100,000 per month 22.7 5.6 0.0 19.0 16.7 37.0 34.9 43.3 51.4 49.0 29.4 25.0 35.7 66.0 38.0 10.5 17.0
Family Financial Situation -31.9 -2.0 -30.3 3.1 -1.2 13.9 15.7 21.7 25.0 3.0 9.3 7.6 9.5 12.1 7.1 10.0 14.7
Under N 20,000 per month -35.5 -2.9 -48.3 0.0 14.3 23.3 0.0 20.7 12.0 -30.0 -22.2 7.0 0.0 15.7 6.1 15.6 7.8
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month -40.3 -1.7 -24.5 3.6 0.0 19.2 15.2 16.9 21.7 -5.5 13.6 9.4 22.2 15.3 2.8 6.6 20.5
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -23.1 2.6 -31.3 4.0 -22.2 1.8 26.3 21.6 38.6 14.1 10.0 5.7 -1.0 9.7 11.6 9.3 1.3
Over N100,000 per month 9.1 -11.1 -100.0 4.8 16.7 13.0 16.3 28.9 18.9 7.8 15.7 7.7 16.7 6.1 9.3 18.4 26.8
Family Income 76.3 78.1 -21.8 62.7 58.2 39.3 44.7 50.6 64.4 41.2 79.2 56.3 49.3 42.1 60.1 58.2 59.5
Under N20,000 per month 80.6 77.1 49.1 70.4 53.6 25.6 52.9 58.6 44.0 70.0 61.1 30.2 50.9 15.7 55.1 65.6 47.1
Over N 100,000 per month 81.8 66.7 -5.9 52.4 100.0 100.0 58.1 55.6 59.5 17.6 72.5 71.2 54.8 51.5 53.7 50.0 73.2
Economic Condition -0.7 16.3 2.1 17.9 12.2 34.9 37.0 35.9 52.1 35.9 25.1 42.6 30.7 43.5 25.7 30.3 37.1
Under N 20,000 per month 3.7 8.8 0.0 2.8 -20.0 51.9 12.2 3.6 46.4 -25.0 -54.5 54.2 20.0 48.7 17.3 -4.5 33.7
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -6.5 9.5 0.0 4.5 18.8 42.1 22.6 42.4 46.0 50.0 32.1 33.8 24.7 42.1 16.8 35.0 35.7
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -7.4 16.7 6.1 40.6 16.7 27.0 31.4 37.5 55.9 27.2 24.1 52.1 32.9 58.2 21.5 36.1 45.8
Over N 100,000 per month 22.2 32.3 16.7 29.2 38.5 19.7 21.0 34.6 54.2 38.3 34.0 34.0 42.7 31.5 46.5 21.3 31.4
Family Financial Situation -24.4 2.6 -22.6 3.9 -1.2 23.1 15.2 14.7 20.2 11.1 10.9 6.1 4.8 5.5 8.1 14.1 4.7
Under N 20,000 per month -25.0 -23.5 -25.0 -11.1 5.0 63.0 54.5 7.1 0.0 50.0 -18.2 11.1 -37.1 -20.5 3.8 0.0 -10.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -32.3 3.4 -13.8 5.5 6.3 12.7 12.9 7.6 -2.0 26.7 16.7 -7.8 -7.5 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -34.6 4.4 -31.7 12.5 -23.8 6.0 28.6 5.8 32.9 -5.9 -5.2 9.6 16.2 7.5 2.0 26.1 10.7
Over N 100,000 per month 16.7 12.9 -33.3 0.0 7.7 36.4 11.3 34.6 29.2 13.6 25.0 13.9 29.1 5.6 25.0 23.4 12.8
Family Income 66.7 61.0 56.0 74.7 66.3 63.3 46.0 60.3 62.3 53.3 54.6 52.9 62.1 42.1 69.6 74.2 41.2
Under N 20,000 per month 66.1 52.9 57.5 86.1 70.0 50.0 45.5 39.3 67.9 87.5 45.5 34.7 40.0 0.0 65.4 63.6 15.2
Over N 100,000 per month 47.2 67.7 66.7 56.3 61.5 72.7 39.3 76.0 67.7 46.3 61.8 66.7 50.0 47.2 72.9 79.8 51.3
Table E.2.1.5: Consumer Expectations Survey - South South
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average 1.5 14.6 -12.9 11.9 16.6 16.8 23.3 17.7 20.5 18.7 19.5 11.7 12.5 13.8 11.9 10.6 10.9
Education 55.8 61.0 47.6 60.1 50.0 42.2 35.2 53.0 48.1 46.5 54.7 45.4 52.1 44.5 59.4 64.6 35.3
Debt Payment -1.9 62.6 -23.2 5.1 11.6 0.1 5.6 2.3 2.2 5.1 0.6 5.0 -15.0 -4.9 -10.2 -10.1 2.1
Medical Expenses 34.8 -6.0 34.6 26.0 52.3 7.3 7.6 6.0 23.2 5.0 3.4 11.1 1.6 11.1 13.8 10.1 9.7
Savings 34.8 22.3 -18.7 21.7 -34.9 37.3 28.6 25.5 40.7 29.7 29.1 11.7 24.7 12.1 35.4 29.1 12.1
Purchase of Appliances -26.7 23.5 -24.7 -8.9 12.7 1.8 19.4 1.9 8.8 12.6 12.6 -4.3 5.8 -3.6 3.3 -11.8 4.6
Investment -26.3 -4.7 -38.4 -0.4 2.4 21.4 45.0 7.3 26.9 20.6 30.9 12.8 22.5 37.1 23.9 12.5 26.3
Purchase of Consumer durables -2.7 30.8 -7.4 13.3 0.0 29.0 27.2 9.6 24.0 26.9 22.4 20.1 18.5 15.5 12.7 -2.3 12.1
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -47.0 12.1 -69.8 -33.7 11.6 -16.2 3.7 5.5 -13.3 -10.0 2.8 -12.9 -15.9 -6.8 -29.4 -21.4 -17.8
Purchase of House -58.1 -29.5 -76.4 -49.9 12.8 -18.2 16.5 20.9 -7.0 -2.7 -7.2 -10.8 -22.3 0.3 -35.1 -29.6 -4.9
Others -12.6 -26.4 -21.5 22.5 5.8 16.8 21.7 2.7 9.9 18.8 11.0 -2.3 3.6 4.0 -12.0 1.1 -1.0
Motor Vehicle 16.5 24.6 6.7 25.4 83.4 69.9 59.5 59.8 42.7 40.2 41.6 40.5 28.9 48.7 35.1 31.6 41.5
House & Lot 13.0 24.5 7.7 19.0 84.9 71.4 64.1 60.9 61.6 43.8 39.6 41.0 29.8 47.5 33.1 38.0 46.0
Motor Vehicle 18.7 36.6 13.2 20.3 22.1 38.3 42.8 44.2 52.0 30.1 50.0 49.2 41.9 53.5 40.2 41.9 46.0
House & Lot 14.8 38.7 12.4 26.4 25.6 38.3 44.4 46.2 53.6 34.1 51.8 61.9 36.0 51.5 39.1 38.0 51.1
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 33.3 7.3 -62.0 25.5 23.3 4.0 10.5 2.1 -7.5 -27.1 21.9 12.9 9.5 21.1 20.2 30.4 29.7
Exchange Rate -57.1 -25.1 12.0 -18.6 -37.2 6.9 26.0 3.3 2.6 -5.0 -5.5 4.0 -10.5 8.7 -10.8 -6.7 9.4
Food 60.7 65.5 83.1 62.8 51.1 22.0 37.5 29.4 59.6 35.7 67.7 45.2 50.7 35.8 52.4 58.9 46.5
Clothing & Footwaer 43.7 51.0 65.5 51.2 45.4 27.2 39.5 37.0 61.7 39.7 61.7 45.8 41.9 40.0 42.9 50.5 50.9
Electricity 28.9 46.4 45.1 17.8 50.0 21.4 32.9 46.8 50.0 45.7 54.6 50.2 48.0 47.9 47.0 39.8 49.5
Water 20 15.9 -5.0 27.9 16.3 10.9 24.3 27.7 -6.4 18.1 36.6 16.2 15.3 14.5 24.0 18.4 25.8
House Rent 69.6 88.1 61.9 71.3 81.4 72.2 70.4 60.8 79.8 47.7 77.1 76.7 72.4 65.8 75.3 70.6 73.3
Transportation 72.6 58.9 41.5 53.5 50.0 33.0 46.8 35.9 45.2 33.2 61.7 59.9 50.3 53.1 64.2 42.2 55.2
Communication 23.7 10.6 24.7 11.6 37.2 4.6 29.6 26.1 30.9 38.7 38.8 13.6 15.6 9.3 13.5 8.7 5.0
Education 60 47.7 49.3 45.0 46.5 37.0 47.4 46.8 62.8 26.7 60.1 47.7 41.1 46.2 42.5 68.2 51.2
Medical Care 45.9 43.1 54.3 31.0 55.8 38.0 51.3 43.5 59.6 35.7 59.0 41.9 51.0 55.2 43.6 39.2 57.2
Personal Care 37 43.0 52.1 12.4 25.6 34.1 42.1 40.2 34.0 32.2 48.1 35.5 45.6 35.9 26.4 26.4 42.1
Hotel & Restaurant 43.7 72.2 71.1 13.1 54.7 35.9 51.3 27.7 42.0 10.0 53.6 33.7 63.2 55.5 33.2 42.8 46.8
Others 30.4 53.0 45.1 0.8 33.7 5.2 31.5 18.5 17.5 14.5 32.8 16.1 38.1 24.5 26.7 17.1 30.7
Primary School 8.9 8.6 15.5 11.6 14.0 11.0 7.9 0.5 2.1 3.0 1.1 7.5 4.4 7.9 9.1 1.3 5.7
Junior School 3.7 2.0 4.9 0.0 5.8 2.3 15.1 4.9 4.3 4.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 5.2 2.7 5.7 4.0
Senior School 14.8 20.5 31.7 41.9 25.6 26.0 27.0 30.4 22.9 28.6 13.1 24.4 19.4 18.3 18.2 13.4 27.1
University 26.7 38.4 23.9 25.6 32.6 39.9 30.3 35.9 42.6 34.7 56.3 41.2 52.0 46.6 42.2 53.5 41.1
None 0.0 1.3 0.7 5.4 2.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.1 2.0 1.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 1.4 1.7 2.7
Response Rate 45.0 94.4 88.8 80.6 53.8 86.5 76.0 92.0 94.0 99.5 91.5 93.0 98.0 96.7 98.7 99.7 99.7
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-1.5 -6.6 0.5 -0.2 0.8 -2.6 -6.1 -11.9 -8.1 -8.7 -10.0 -26.1 -29.1 -21.3
37.7 26.6 32.6 30.6 31.2 35.0 31.4 23.7 26.6 30.8 31.9 12.1 13.9 31.0
32.5 34.2 33.8 37.0 36.7 37.5 39.0 38.7 33.5 38.3 38.9 19.2 25.3 36.7
0.5 -7.7 4.0 3.0 2.2 -3.2 -6.3 -6.2 -5.5 -10.5 -13.9 -34.1 -39.8 -25.7
3.2 -17.7 0.6 -2.3 -20.6 -15.3 -25.6 -12.8 -40.4 -20.5 -23.8 -25.4 -43.2 -43.8
6.6 -4.4 3.4 -2.0 2.0 3.0 -2.8 -13.2 0.0 -8.9 -12.0 -31.7 -42.4 -28.5
-7.4 -4.7 1.8 4.6 0.0 -6.7 -3.3 -0.5 0.0 -10.6 -11.2 -33.6 -39.8 -18.4
-1.4 -1.3 17.1 21.7 32.2 3.2 -2.0 -0.9 -11.5 -5.7 -17.6 -50.0 -31.3 -29.6
-6.4 -11.9 -5.8 -9.3 -7.5 -8.8 -11.4 -23.5 -12.8 -4.0 -22.9 -15.6 -19.7 -29.5
-20.6 -21.3 -20.2 -18.4 -24.5 -10.5 -14.4 -60.3 -9.6 -2.3 -28.6 -15.6 -10.2 -54.2
0.5 -14.9 -0.4 -19.1 -8.7 -9.5 -16.9 -25.3 -26.1 -7.3 -16.9 -20.4 -23.7 -34.6
0.0 -1.6 2.7 0.8 -4.8 1.3 -3.3 -10.5 -1.8 1.9 -31.0 -3.1 -19.9 -33.6
-18.1 0.0 -1.3 15.2 11.1 -21.3 -7.0 -20.5 -2.6 -6.6 -14.9 -19.4 -19.8 -11.7
1.4 -0.3 3.3 5.7 7.8 4.3 -0.7 -6.0 -6.1 -11.7 6.7 -28.8 -27.8 -8.7
4.8 -8.5 2.2 -8.0 -7.8 -17.7 -31.1 -35.9 -38.5 -54.5 9.5 -21.3 -63.6 -8.3
4.7 6.1 4.2 23.5 11.9 14.7 5.6 -30.5 5.6 -2.4 -1.2 -20.8 -29.3 -20.0
6.3 1.6 12.7 13.8 11.0 12.0 3.9 14.5 -14.3 -3.8 15.7 -35.9 -13.0 8.6
-27.8 -5.1 -10.5 -19.6 8.9 -4.3 4.0 16.1 -10.3 -9.4 0.0 -46.3 -25.0 -27.2
36.8 30.6 39.0 29.0 39.0 32.3 27.5 27.0 22.9 39.0 25.1 -4.7 1.5 33.4
53.4 29.4 36.4 28.7 39.4 29.7 21.2 5.6 7.9 42.6 25.0 14.3 6.0 26.1
45.8 41.7 49.6 29.1 39.7 38.8 32.6 18.1 29.3 45.6 5.7 -5.6 -21.6 38.0
27.6 24.0 26.2 31.4 40.0 32.0 27.2 37.4 0.0 37.3 29.9 -8.6 -9.0 41.1
25.5 15.4 34.0 26.5 35.3 22.8 21.0 30.3 20.8 26.9 34.2 -11.4 34.4 21.1
19.7 11.0 13.3 12.3 7.8 13.7 7.5 -3.7 4.1 0.7 1.7 -10.7 -11.7 0.3
34.1 15.7 9.1 10.6 -3.8 16.2 0.0 -50.0 -21.1 -7.4 -6.3 -7.1 -12.0 30.4
16.7 14.0 12.6 10.4 13.4 12.5 8.7 -20.0 13.0 4.0 -1.4 -3.2 -22.5 -14.0
10.3 2.7 21.5 15.7 2.5 13.3 4.3 11.4 -5.4 -6.0 6.7 -17.1 -9.0 8.1
32.1 11.5 10.0 13.2 15.7 14.7 12.9 14.8 2.8 6.2 -2.5 -21.1 -1.0 -11.1
56.6 38.1 45.3 50.3 46.8 59.0 59.3 47.7 52.9 52.7 68.9 51.7 51.8 59.4
52.3 47.1 54.5 66.0 38.5 54.1 38.5 30.6 42.1 48.1 56.3 45.2 52.0 30.4
51.0 25.6 21.8 31.3 31.3 55.8 49.6 35.0 42.4 37.6 75.7 38.2 42.3 70.0
60.7 50.7 61.5 65.7 61.3 74.7 70.7 51.2 94.6 67.5 70.1 64.5 41.8 60.0
62.3 40.4 68.0 55.9 66.7 50.0 69.4 67.2 55.6 64.6 63.3 68.4 69.8 60.0
37.3 31.4 34.2 27.8 41.4 40.2 38.8 37.8 29.5 44.3 35.1 3.2 8.2 34.2
34.6 21.3 14.2 11.5 30.0 23.4 8.8 19.0 -2.9 3.3 10.0 13.2 8.3 -2.8
34.7 39.3 44.0 26.6 40.3 32.8 38.5 34.6 32.0 41.5 28.9 -4.2 -14.1 34.0
33.7 32.8 27.0 41.1 38.9 52.5 38.2 37.6 40.7 49.6 28.1 -2.2 -6.8 31.3
46.5 21.7 42.6 20.5 53.2 40.0 47.8 46.7 39.5 48.1 47.8 17.2 45.2 42.1
13.6 16.7 12.3 31.3 11.9 18.7 14.2 9.7 4.8 13.7 17.1 -6.0 -1.0 14.8
-2.6 17.0 3.8 23.1 -11.4 6.3 -11.8 -34.5 -35.3 -26.7 30.0 -5.9 -27.8 22.2
0.0 10.7 0.0 33.7 11.1 8.6 3.0 -15.4 -4.0 1.1 21.1 -13.0 -7.6 34.0
18.3 19.5 28.9 35.4 15.6 29.0 24.5 32.7 11.1 24.1 15.2 2.2 7.4 20.2
31.9 24.5 24.1 27.4 21.0 22.7 20.6 19.6 10.5 21.5 15.0 -6.0 2.1 1.6
46.7 54.5 55.0 51.8 56.9 53.7 63.9 68.7 66.1 56.8 64.4 60.4 68.7 61.1
32.1 22.3 25.5 10.3 11.4 29.7 23.5 65.5 20.6 23.3 50.0 35.3 8.3 33.3
41.8 67.9 68.4 68.5 66.2 70.4 72.0 77.6 83.3 60.1 65.5 73.6 73.9 59.0
52.4 54.6 57.2 47.9 65.6 51.5 59.5 71.3 55.6 50.0 72.4 53.3 63.2 75.5
52.1 54.7 51.9 58.2 54.0 46.0 69.1 59.2 67.6 69.0 57.5 61.2 80.9 54.0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
12.4 11.3 16.2 15.1 12.2 16.5 12.6 0.7 13.8 12.9 2.2 7.5 10.3 6.1
46.7 54.5 55.0 51.8 56.9 53.7 63.9 68.7 66.1 56.8 64.4 60.4 68.7 61.1
39.6 52.2 55.3 54.7 51.0 52.0 55.6 60.8 63.9 56.3 60.5 57.0 52.8 59.6
-13.0 2.3 -3.5 1.3 -8.1 -3.3 -3.4 -14.0 -7.1 -2.2 -12.9 -8.2 -5.7 -15.6
-4.2 13.9 8.0 7.5 2.9 -6.3 -1.5 12.0 2.5 1.2 -8.4 2.7 -3.5 -4.9
28.1 24.9 25.7 25.7 27.6 36.0 25.4 14.8 16.7 24.3 17.4 5.7 21.4 21.8
16.7 1.8 12.0 10.5 4.6 13.3 11.4 -17.5 5.5 7.3 -3.5 -1.3 -15.6 -2.2
35.1 6.5 14.7 19.0 14.9 31.7 17.3 -2.3 15.0 14.3 0.7 6.4 18.2 15.6
15.0 2.7 8.5 13.5 14.2 15.8 7.8 -12.5 6.3 7.3 -2.3 1.2 10.4 7.9
-13.4 -13.0 -4.5 -8.8 -6.9 -1.5 -10.2 -42.2 -7.1 -6.2 -32.4 -17.9 -21.4 -27.5
-10.4 -20.1 -4.3 -12.7 -14.7 -11.3 -21.7 -40.3 -23.0 -19.7 -37.6 -22.2 -30.8 -32.9
-3.7 -1.3 11.5 3.8 -7.6 1.7 -5.6 -20.3 13.1 2.0 -21.7 -1.0 18.7 -15.9
46.0 40.8 46.2 42.8 46.1 43.3 41.6 33.1 38.2 38.6 37.5 34.1 32.7 35.2
50.7 49.8 51.7 52.8 53.9 52.2 49.7 47.0 46.9 44.2 53.3 35.6 36.1 45.6
44.6 34.2 41.7 37.3 39.4 39.8 36.9 25.3 34.5 35.4 28.9 33.4 29.5 30.3
42.8 38.5 45.2 38.3 45.0 37.8 38.4 26.9 33.2 36.3 30.2 33.1 32.5 29.5
51.5 48.4 53.9 52.9 52.9 50.3 50.7 40.5 44.2 48.9 42.2 41.7 41.6 45.2
56.8 58.4 56.2 65.7 55.9 59.3 57.1 54.8 52.4 56.8 58.5 47.0 49.5 57.4
50.6 41.6 49.0 46.3 49.8 45.8 47.3 31.7 40.4 46.1 34.0 38.5 36.8 37.8
47.1 45.3 56.4 46.7 52.8 45.8 47.6 35.1 39.8 43.9 33.9 39.5 38.6 40.4
28.1 31.3 39.5 18.7 24.7 22.3 22.5 35.8 34.7 17.8 19.4 28.4 41.5 20.3
24.0 25.1 43.3 26.3 32.2 16.3 24.1 1.3 41.0 22.7 6.7 29.8 17.4 -2.7
13.3 -1.7 5.3 1 15.3 -1.0 -7.1 -11.7 2.2 -3.7 -12.4 -7.0 8.0 4.4
44.5 31.3 32.3 29.5 28.7 40.5 32.1 32.6 30.8 28.0 38.6 33.1 20.1 35.7
58.7 50.8 58.0 41.3 50.8 55.3 49.2 32.0 50.2 46.7 55.2 52.7 50.2 41.6
57.3 46.2 47.0 41.0 40.3 53.0 49.5 36.7 43.3 38.7 55.2 36.8 16.4 53.7
40.4 29.8 35.0 25.7 28.8 38.3 36.6 36.0 34.1 32.3 39.1 36.8 13.4 37.9
21.0 13.0 10.7 12.7 1.0 17.7 6.1 18.0 10.6 5.3 28.1 18.7 5.7 32.2
68.0 62.5 64.0 55.0 59.7 71.7 67.5 66.3 59.0 62.0 68.9 62.1 64.9 61.1
54.3 28.1 18.3 33.0 31.5 44.0 24.4 23.3 33.1 23.0 32.4 31.8 42.5 33.9
21.0 7.7 10.0 11.0 4.4 14.3 8.8 -2.3 13.0 6.7 15.7 12.8 5.7 11.7
61.3 41.5 39.7 36.3 42.0 43.3 42.0 38.0 40.3 35.3 41.1 46.2 45.2 34.9
42.4 31.8 28.7 36.0 25.8 44.7 30.2 33.0 28.0 28.0 31.1 36.9 5.4 30.9
39.7 21.7 27.0 13.3 23.1 36.7 22.4 31.7 20.1 14.7 30.4 12.4 6.0 30.5
36.4 27.1 32.7 34.7 18.0 45.7 33.9 61.7 27.6 27.3 47.8 29.5 -1.3 44.3
33.3 15.4 16.3 14.0 18.6 21.0 14.6 16.7 10.2 16.0 17.7 20.1 -12.4 16.1
6.7 11.4 11.0 8.7 6.4 7.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 5.7 1.3 6.7 2.7 1.0
6.0 9.7 5.3 5.0 6.4 5.0 5.4 0.7 3.3 7.7 0.0 5.4 4.7 1.0
16.7 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.6 13.7 14.6 19.7 17.9 15.0 14.4 17.7 14.4 13.8
22.0 20.7 23.0 18.7 20.7 15.0 18.6 16.7 22.3 18.7 23.4 16.7 24.1 20.5
47.0 41.8 45.0 49.7 49.5 57.7 55.6 57.3 50.5 52.0 60.2 51.8 52.8 63.1
1.7 1.3 0.0 2.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.7
300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300.0 300.0 300.0 300.0
300 299 300 300 295 300 295 300 293 300 299.0 299.0 299.0 298.0
100.0 99.7 100.0 100.0 98.3 100.0 98.3 100.0 97.7 100.0 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.3
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Table E.2.1.6: Consumer Expectations Survey - South West
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Confidence Index:
Current Quarter -20.9 -16.1 -15.9 -12.0 -4.7 -2.8 9.6 6.9 14.0 10.1 -3.3 -6.0 -5.0 -11.3 -5.8 1.0 0.9
Next Quarter 25.8 23.6 24.9 25.3 29.8 29.5 39.7 43.7 37.8 38.6 35.0 31.7 30.4 26.4 32.1 38.6 42.1
Next 12 months 22.8 31.3 22.9 33.2 35.0 37.7 52.3 50.0 55.0 48.1 46.0 34.3 32.9 23.9 30.4 36.5 38.2
Economic Condition -48.9 -37.7 -38.0 -36.9 -20.8 -3.6 3.8 14.5 3.8 15.1 -2.3 -15.5 -3.7 -18.7 -15.4 2.0 -1.8
Under N 20,000 per month -52.1 -34.0 -24.4 -24.2 -12.5 6.6 2.9 9.2 -4.3 7.7 -18.9 -8.3 -26.4 -20.0 -37.7 -16.0 -0.9
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -54.1 -42.5 -23.4 -33.1 -32.5 2.7 0.5 19.7 13.5 10.3 5.7 -12.3 -3.2 -16.4 -12.1 7.7 -2.4
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -41.5 -33.8 -42.0 -38.8 -4.9 -13.6 13.3 2.9 8.5 28.0 10.5 -10.2 10.8 -14.1 -5.0 10.3 6.7
Over N 100,000 per month -33.7 -40.3 -59.6 -56.0 -19.4 -8.5 3.6 18.6 -3.1 8.7 -22.9 -28.3 -0.6 -27.9 -15.3 -8.4 -10.6
Family Financial Situation -11.7 -7.3 -11.6 -10.0 -10.0 -14.5 -10.1 -16.3 1.2 -6.4 -22.6 -3.9 -13.2 -10.9 -2.6 -11.5 -10.1
Under N 20,000 per month -19.4 -18.6 -8.5 -4.2 -3.3 -17.0 -18.8 -15.0 -4.3 -9.6 -61.7 -6.0 -27.7 -23.6 -26.8 -36.0 -34.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -11.9 -23.7 -12.9 -8.8 -11.2 -3.3 -13.5 -13.2 -10.7 -4.1 -40.4 -7.1 -7.5 -8.7 -0.4 -10.2 -11.7
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month -3.1 5.4 -10.7 -10.2 -7.3 -26.4 -22.4 -17.3 7.6 -8.1 -17.3 -0.5 -9.7 -5.9 3.2 -5.6 1.3
Over N 100,000 per month 3.3 -8.1 -13.2 -19.0 -20.8 1.8 12.9 -30.0 -7.1 -3.8 -27.3 -3.6 -14.7 -10.4 5.7 -8.4 -6.9
Family Income -2.0 -3.2 1.9 10.9 16.7 9.8 35.1 22.5 37.2 21.5 14.9 1.3 2.0 -4.3 0.7 12.5 14.5
Under N 20,000 per month -20.5 2.0 -7.0 1.7 -8.3 9.4 31.9 15.0 27.6 21.2 6.1 14.3 13.5 -8.6 7.2 10.0 25.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 9.2 -3.3 7.0 20.0 36.9 1.1 32.4 28.4 28.1 24.7 16.2 3.9 1.3 -8.4 6.8 14.1 12.1
Between N 50,001 and N 100,000 per month 4.6 -5.4 6.0 20.4 34.1 7.1 18.4 17.3 28.8 12.9 30.3 0.0 10.8 3.6 0.9 11.1 14.3
Over N 100,000 per month 4.3 -6.5 -2.0 -2.0 -19.4 22.0 54.3 17.1 56.1 30.8 -5.7 -6.0 7.7 -3.9 -13.6 13.5 11.1
Economic Condition -10.5 -4.3 -4.6 -1.1 6.7 27.5 35.3 46.3 50.0 46.4 28.3 22.2 21.7 10.6 19.2 34.1 35.3
Under N 20,000 per month -13.4 -25.0 -6.9 -1.5 13.6 26.4 34.7 36.8 36.3 50.0 22.1 32.1 -1.8 -19.8 -9.4 22.7 39.5
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -16.2 -12.2 0.9 -3.6 5.7 29.9 35.5 43.9 55.1 51.2 40.0 18.8 34.6 9.3 20.1 31.8 13.3
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month -1.1 11.0 6.6 12.7 18.9 19.3 19.4 56.9 44.9 47.3 24.7 15.3 19.6 20.8 24.8 49.6 48.0
Over N 100,000 per month 0.0 2.5 -16.0 -13.1 -9.1 32.0 44.6 52.3 55.2 36.2 16.3 29.3 20.2 16.8 24.5 23.7 37.9
Family Financial Situation 8.3 5.6 11.1 15.4 26.2 22.2 43.1 42.0 49.7 34.0 29.5 11.7 9.3 1.6 12.8 15.3 22.8
Under N 20,000 per month -8.1 13.9 0.0 26.5 31.8 13.9 36.7 35.8 45.1 34.8 27.9 -10.7 -3.6 -24.5 12.5 9.1 31.6
Between N 20,000 and N50,000 per month 10.4 4.7 10.0 4.3 33.0 22.7 50.4 40.5 46.1 40.7 32.0 10.0 8.5 0.8 15.6 9.1 11.2
Between N50,001 and N100,000 per month 27.2 -1.5 16.0 33.8 54.7 10.7 2.0 43.1 39.0 30.1 29.9 18.4 10.8 6.8 15.7 25.0 32.0
Over N100,000 per month 6.1 10.2 -2.0 1.5 -16.4 34.8 60.7 53.5 61.0 30.4 25.0 12.8 16.0 10.5 5.9 14.3 19.9
Family Income 79.6 69.5 68.1 61.5 56.6 38.7 40.8 42.7 13.8 35.4 47.1 61.3 60.2 67.0 64.2 66.3 68.3
Under N20,000 per month 81.4 60.8 38.9 70.6 50.0 38.9 28.6 37.7 -13.7 19.6 16.3 75.0 56.4 79.2 58.3 79.5 84.2
Over N 100,000 per month 65.2 77.4 76.4 63.1 40.0 6.7 16.7 46.5 7.6 21.7 51.9 64.9 53.2 70.5 63.7 63.4 63.2
Economic Condition -1.6 13.9 -3.0 5.9 23.3 35.9 52.7 53.4 59.7 48.8 43.0 28.5 22.1 9.2 17.2 29.0 30.9
Under N 20,000 per month -11.1 -24.1 5.4 14.3 42.9 41.4 43.9 45.1 59.5 51.4 56.2 30.6 6.0 -11.2 -8.8 15.0 36.4
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month -14.1 -19.7 -15.2 4.8 23.9 25.3 52.1 53.8 56.9 53.8 96.4 28.1 22.8 -5.1 9.2 19.0 18.1
Over N 100,000 per month 15.7 19.2 -7.9 -9.3 -1.9 30.7 53.7 62.3 59.1 43.2 41.0 27.7 26.0 23.1 19.0 36.6 33.1
Family Financial Situation 7.6 10.4 17.6 24.3 26.3 27.3 51.5 41.4 52.6 35.7 36.1 17.0 14.1 1.8 10.0 16.8 25.3
Under N 20,000 per month 0.0 13.8 3.0 28.6 40.0 31.4 31.7 31.4 48.6 31.4 21.6 0.0 -9.5 -18.4 -26.5 0.0 15.2
Between N 20,000 and N 50,000 per month 10.5 11.8 10.0 9.7 23.3 23.0 58.9 41.9 51.4 43.8 38.9 31.5 6.1 -18.5 17.5 5.0 16.9
Over N 100,000 per month 2.4 17.8 11.0 23.3 0.0 30.7 60.7 47.4 66.7 25.9 42.9 11.9 24.4 12.0 17.2 23.2 30.1
Family Income 62.3 69.5 54.1 69.5 55.5 50.0 52.7 55.2 52.7 59.9 58.9 57.3 62.5 60.8 64.0 63.8 58.3
Under N 20,000 per month 59.9 61.5 46.4 50.0 55.7 31.4 58.5 70.6 52.7 19.5 58.1 47.2 65.5 69.4 61.8 63.8 56.1
Over N 100,000 per month 63.9 76.7 48.8 61.6 51.9 55.4 53.3 51.8 49.6 45.5 59.1 56.9 52.4 59.8 65.3 56.5 51.2
Table E.2.1.6: Consumer Expectations Survey - South West
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average 14.3 4.0 13.1 13.6 9.0 13.1 20.8 5.1 23.2 20.6 24.5 14.7 16.0 15.3 14.4 16.9 12.4
Education 60.0 56.4 62.3 63.2 50.4 57.2 59.0 6.8 53.7 60.8 60.3 58.1 58.3 64.1 64.2 65.1 65.8
Debt Payment -0.7 -22.3 -7.1 -25.6 -2.1 -20.1 -34.0 -44.7 -34.7 -22.5 -9.4 -3.5 -12.6 -9.7 -12.1 -2.2 -13.3
Medical Expenses 10.2 -17.5 -1.9 -19.3 23.7 -12.9 -27.8 -41.2 -34.3 -25.2 -19.9 -13.9 -0.9 5.4 -10.9 -7.6 -13.2
Savings 20.3 10.4 16.8 16.8 -20.8 30.0 36.0 15.2 40.4 28.0 29.0 21.7 24.3 24.5 27.3 27.3 27.3
Purchase of Appliances -0.1 -11.5 -1.5 8.0 -2.9 13.6 18.2 19.8 26.4 17.2 23.8 4.0 4.9 2.4 5.3 5.8 -3.4
Investment 9.1 3.4 0.0 11.7 -12.9 13.2 31.7 17.9 43.1 27.2 34.6 12.5 15.8 14.7 18.1 20.6 20.8
Purchase of Consumer durables 10.2 6.6 16.0 18.4 0.0 15.6 31.1 13.2 33.9 30.0 37.5 23.0 22.1 14.3 16.5 23.2 14.4
Purchase of Car/Motor Vehicle -7.3 -11.8 4.3 9.4 -3.8 1.9 28.1 20.5 22.1 17.7 15.3 0.1 -2.3 -7.1 -6.3 -0.6 -5.9
Purchase of House -12.3 -15.0 -4.6 -5.1 0.0 -8.1 14.6 -23.4 22.6 17.7 13.5 -1.2 -9.3 -14.4 -10.8 -8.5 -14.3
Others 5.3 -16.0 6.0 14.4 10.4 3.4 19.2 17.4 30.0 16.1 26.3 3.2 13.1 13.2 2.8 -1.5 -0.6
Motor Vehicle 35.6 43.8 43.7 48.4 59.3 52.7 55.7 60.7 56.5 55.6 53.5 47.7 44.1 41.5 46.1 45.7 45.1
House & Lot 31.9 43.3 43.3 44.8 66.1 52.6 54.5 57.8 36.0 67.9 50.5 48.8 41.3 35.7 42.8 44.2 40.4
Motor Vehicle 41.2 52.5 64.2 54.8 53.0 56.5 65.2 66.8 40.0 62.1 60.2 58.7 53.3 51.1 54.8 53.9 53.4
House & Lot 38.9 51.2 51.3 52.7 53.8 59.4 62.1 63.5 62.1 54.8 59.0 55.9 50.1 46.3 50.3 53.3 48.6
Interest Rate Index for Borrowing Money 16.3 8.1 -23.6 15.5 15.4 3.7 -19.1 -0.7 -30.9 26.9 5.7 27.0 11.0 18.2 19.1 30.8 31.2
Exchange Rate -33.3 -19.7 25.4 -27.6 -13.3 18.2 38.4 34.1 44.8 14.7 19.8 14.0 -8.7 -16.7 -10.7 -4.5 -10.3
Food 66.7 68.7 62.5 57.7 66.2 43.1 26.4 29.1 12.9 24.5 50.7 61.3 51.9 66.8 65.9 60.7 68.3
Clothing & Footwaer 59.8 40.9 52.3 58.1 50.5 27.2 3.3 17.9 5.6 33.3 28.3 37.0 35.9 45.2 40.8 39.7 35.3
Electricity 51.5 37.7 44.5 41.5 48.4 24.2 11.1 31.5 3.6 13.0 37.6 52.0 56.4 63.8 57.2 56.3 60.8
Water 35 25.7 24.1 25.6 28.8 8.1 6.0 15.9 5.9 45.6 10.0 29.3 38.9 45.3 36.9 41.0 38.3
House Rent 80.2 64.7 60.7 64.5 63.7 55.5 43.5 37.8 27.0 33.6 49.3 66.6 70.1 69.8 64.2 72.5 74.6
Transportation 68.5 60.3 50.4 48.5 52.0 38.0 38.2 31.2 10.2 19.0 40.5 64.0 56.9 60.0 63.9 60.3 61.5
Communication 34.8 13.7 13.4 21.8 20.8 18.5 4.3 13.3 1.4 36.1 16.7 41.3 32.6 43.3 29.3 31.0 30.7
Education 70 56.7 38.0 43.1 48.3 39.8 34.8 38.4 14.8 29.3 44.3 60.6 52.7 65.2 58.9 64.3 64.0
Medical Care 45.2 45.7 27.3 23.5 30.5 22.9 17.7 30.8 7.6 20.4 28.3 60.0 39.6 48.5 44.4 49.5 55.8
Personal Care 40.2 36.9 18.6 32.6 32.5 17.5 16.1 25.5 3.9 33.0 27.6 27.0 18.0 25.4 26.5 37.2 38.2
Hotel & Restaurant 42.0 41.3 23.2 25.5 23.3 12.8 23.7 23.5 14.8 18.0 33.3 40.0 31.8 35.3 40.8 36.8 42.0
Others 28.2 35.3 7.9 0.8 19.5 5.4 16.0 25.8 8.2 20.6 35.0 30.6 29.7 30.1 37.7 36.1
Primary School 7.4 3.2 4.6 7.1 5.0 2.7 8.7 5.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 4.0 13.0
Junior School 5.7 4.4 6.0 9.2 8.8 8.4 9.4 1.0 5.6 5.4 6.4 6.3 4.0 3.8 5.3 4.8 10.0
Senior School 24.6 20.1 21.3 28.0 24.6 19.9 24.7 29.1 23.4 19.7 21.6 16.0 18.3 18.5 16.3 11.8 48.0
University 34.3 44.6 36.6 28.0 31.7 40.4 33.8 33.8 35.9 36.1 33.7 48.3 44.1 47.8 47.6 52.8 215.0
None 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 3.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.3 4.4 2.1 3.3 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 12.0
Response Rate 92.0 99.6 86.4 95.6 96.0 99.0 99.7 100.0 99.7 98.0 94.0 100.0 99.8 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-1.8 -3.5 0.3 -2.3 -2.5 -1.6 -9.5 -11.4 0.0 4.7 -7.5 -23.8 -30.7 -33.7
38.3 33.7 39.6 39.5 38.9 33.8 24.4 25.8 36.7 34.1 29.8 26.6 23.1 14.2
37.1 32.0 37.9 35.6 35.8 31.6 28.0 32.0 50.0 46.4 42.8 42.4 30.8 27.1
3.0 1.0 9.0 -1.4 -9.9 -5.6 -15.8 -21.8 -0.1 11.6 -11.0 -33.3 -39.9 -49.1
0.0 -5.5 8.7 -7.4 -16.5 -28.9 -33.5 -53.9 -9.7 -7.6 -20.2 -36.3 -69.6 -50.0
5.9 4.0 8.3 -2.9 -15.1 -8.4 -5.9 10.8 -8.1 13.8 -6.0 -27.8 -30.3 -55.0
11.7 6.4 11.7 -4.1 -11.9 15.8 -12.8 -15.5 8.5 12.5 -8.3 -36.5 -36.5 -42.4
-8.3 -5.1 6.1 12.3 6.7 10.0 -8.6 -35.7 7.7 27.1 -15.1 -34.8 -41.0 -50.0
-17.0 -13.5 -20.1 -10.9 -4.0 -6.1 -9.5 -8.0 -7.5 -10.6 -12.5 -20.5 -28.1 -23.8
-24.5 -35.9 -35.6 -23.5 -33.5 -14.7 -16.5 -9.9 -18.7 -34.1 -17.5 -44.4 -53.6 -25.6
-24.6 -8.1 -27.1 -11.8 -2.1 -8.4 -15.8 -14.7 -2.7 -23.4 -18.3 -25.0 -23.2 -30.6
-9.8 -11.8 -17.5 -14.9 3.8 -5.1 -2.8 -5.9 -15.0 3.3 -13.7 -16.9 -23.8 -29.2
-10.4 -7.4 -5.6 7.8 14.0 10.0 0.6 -2.7 1.0 9.4 0.0 -6.8 -25.5 -7.1
8.7 1.8 12.0 5.5 6.3 7.0 -3.3 -4.5 7.8 13.0 1.0 -17.8 -24.1 -28.1
9.8 0.0 7.7 -4.4 -11.8 -6.9 -27.7 -23.7 7.5 1.2 8.8 1.6 -19.6 -11.5
9.1 4.4 11.7 -2.0 0.7 4.0 10.8 13.7 6.2 23.9 6.3 -14.5 -28.3 -35.1
11.2 -3.0 19.7 17.5 21.5 26.6 10.0 9.2 13.0 21.7 3.5 -32.6 -19.8 -25.4
6.3 4.5 3.3 14.3 19.1 11.4 -3.4 -21.4 4.8 -1.2 -13.5 -20.0 -26.6 -37.0
35.5 25.8 40.6 34.4 28.4 31.8 24.8 36.8 48.4 50.0 39.9 34.4 24.1 21.4
32.9 28.0 43.9 28.6 13.2 -9.6 -26.0 -28.8 29.4 6.7 24.3 21.9 6.3 12.2
37.3 20.6 31.5 24.6 18.2 21.0 35.1 45.1 52.6 57.9 34.5 30.7 25.8 24.8
45.6 35.6 50.6 47.5 39.6 60.8 53.3 49.2 54.7 54.1 48.8 38.3 22.6 27.2
22.1 18.3 34.1 32.1 36.2 45.0 33.2 53.2 43.9 57.5 40.1 38.9 30.8 15.4
20.5 9.0 21.3 22.3 22.8 15.8 8.0 15.0 24.3 29.3 15.4 9.8 2.3 -9.0
5.4 -10.6 39.4 22.4 -9.4 -19.1 -25.0 -36.4 5.9 36.5 31.4 33.3 12.5 6.7
27.5 -3.1 10.2 15.6 22.5 14.0 15.4 25.9 19.7 31.7 19.5 12.5 6.7 -4.3
15.8 22.9 27.3 25.5 32.5 30.2 33.3 31.5 28.0 22.3 22.8 14.3 1.5 -8.9
21.2 16.7 18.3 27.4 28.9 27.8 5.3 18.3 29.8 31.0 -0.8 -4.0 -5.6 -20.2
58.9 66.4 56.9 62.0 65.5 54.0 40.5 25.5 37.5 23.2 34.0 35.8 43.0 30.1
65.8 62.1 33.3 59.2 58.5 23.5 32.3 12.1 64.7 23.1 42.9 28.1 52.5 11.1
62.7 77.3 52.8 60.7 61.2 59.6 47.1 35.8 35.0 36.0 18.6 37.5 35.0 29.1
50.0 70.3 63.0 64.5 68.3 66.0 32.4 33.9 35.6 19.2 28.3 25.5 48.9 46.3
60.6 55.0 59.6 60.7 71.4 54.4 50.5 17.5 34.4 16.8 52.1 44.3 41.1 21.1
28.6 22.7 34.2 31.3 26.3 28.4 27.0 37.4 56.4 54.9 44.7 42.6 29.3 22.6
20.4 11.5 42.6 29.5 22.8 -22.5 -14.4 -38.8 62.0 25.7 33.3 40.4 15.2 25.0
26.9 17.0 27.3 23.1 22.5 22.3 33.5 39.0 45.1 36.3 37.7 37.3 7.1 12.9
35.1 23.6 32.0 28.5 18.4 48.5 45.0 53.5 52.4 57.1 41.5 40.8 30.3 28.7
25.4 29.6 39.5 41.5 37.2 43.3 36.1 53.2 63.8 70.4 52.5 46.6 42.4 22.2
20.3 13.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 24.5 19.5 20.3 34.3 31.0 22.8 17.5 6.5 -5.8
-11.1 14.6 52.9 45.5 6.7 -13.3 -21.8 -46.6 8.0 24.3 33.3 34.0 13.0 -15.6
17.6 2.3 18.2 14.3 24.7 23.1 25.0 31.5 25.6 15.5 13.0 12.0 -1.3 0.0
21.8 9.8 27.8 27.7 31.3 36.0 40.0 29.2 36.6 33.1 27.4 25.0 8.4 -8.5
27.3 24.8 26.3 30.6 32.1 35.3 27.0 33.3 40.6 39.5 21.1 11.8 7.7 -4.5
62.5 59.6 52.4 48.2 53.9 41.9 37.6 38.4 59.5 53.3 60.9 67.0 56.5 64.5
57.4 43.8 50.0 5.7 34.8 5.8 -20.7 -41.4 66.0 33.8 75.0 67.0 56.5 76.6
66.8 58.5 46.5 62.1 60.7 35.5 46.0 55.5 65.2 56.5 62.3 62.7 59.0 58.1
62.2 65.2 47.0 49.6 54.3 53.5 61.8 46.5 55.7 58.3 52.2 64.1 50.3 68.1
60.5 62.3 62.8 51.6 55.5 56.7 52.2 54.2 58.5 52.0 64.9 70.5 61.8 62.4
2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
19.3 13.4 8.0 16.6 14.6 9.8 11.9 4.7 22.6 14.7 20.6 12.3 18.2 6.1
62.5 59.6 52.4 48.2 53.9 41.9 37.6 38.4 59.5 53.3 60.9 67.0 56.5 64.5
63.0 61.2 52.5 51.6 53.8 43.1 38.4 33.0 59.0 52.6 58.0 54.3 53.4 49.0
4.7 -21.0 -13.4 -17.3 -12.8 -26.1 -19.0 -23.3 -16.4 -20.5 -14.9 -12.9 -16.5 -18.9
8.2 -11.2 -8.0 -9.0 -12.5 -17.1 -10.1 -21.0 -11.3 -19.0 -13.0 -18.3 -6.0 -13.9
28.1 23.4 15.3 33.1 32.9 28.5 29.3 19.8 42.6 36.2 40.8 28.9 31.4 15.7
11.4 6.4 -1.3 14.7 11.1 9.6 12.5 0.0 16.9 5.8 15.3 4.4 10.8 -1.3
19.4 15.6 7.1 24.6 22.6 21.0 22.0 11.0 28.1 30.8 29.0 19.0 24.7 1.4
21.9 18.1 9.9 28.0 23.4 17.4 15.1 13.0 35.5 13.5 30.3 18.0 24.3 8.1
0.9 4.6 -10.4 6.3 -4.8 -2.5 2.0 -10.7 7.8 -2.8 5.6 -10.1 5.4 -11.0
-6.3 -4.7 -13.8 -2.0 -7.9 -9.6 1.0 -9.3 8.6 -1.6 1.8 -18.0 0.1 -17.3
-1.4 -4.9 -1.9 3.9 1.1 1.3 2.1 0.5 18.1 12.9 13.3 2.6 16.4 -9.1
47.8 47.8 49.6 47.4 47.6 45.7 45.5 40.1 49.5 44.8 46.0 40.8 42.1 34.6
54.4 50.9 56.0 52.8 53.1 53.5 48.4 47.7 53.9 56.5 50.5 41.1 38.0 36.0
46.0 50.0 48.2 46.5 47.7 43.0 47.4 37.2 48.6 39.3 44.3 40.4 45.2 36.5
43.0 42.5 44.6 42.9 42.0 40.6 40.7 35.3 46.0 38.6 43.1 40.8 43.0 31.3
55.3 56.2 57.4 58.6 57.7 56.3 54.1 51.3 63.6 55.6 57.9 52.2 53.4 44.3
60.2 56.8 63.5 63.6 63.7 62.3 59.8 60.2 67.1 65.4 61.4 58.8 53.3 47.1
56.0 57.9 56.8 56.1 55.1 53.6 53.9 48.1 61.9 51.9 57.2 51.7 54.3 44.4
49.8 53.9 51.7 55.9 54.5 53.2 48.8 45.7 61.6 49.4 55.1 46.3 52.7 41.5
44.9 36.7 43.1 33.4 31.1 21.5 15.5 14.4 6.9 17.8 10.5 24.4 21.5 11.7
24.3 22.8 29.8 17.7 13.0 13.3 4.3 -7.8 -2.8 -1.0 3.5 10.3 9.8 4.3
-10.7 -4.1 -2.0 4.3 4.5 5.5 -12.5 -3.3 15.8 21.9 8.1 -2.5 -9.5 -2.5
47.5 45.7 46.6 42.1 48.9 39.3 22.2 10.2 21.5 10.4 26.3 30.9 27.9 34.6
62.6 60.5 49.2 51.3 65.5 50.5 30.8 12.5 17.0 15.6 21.0 32.8 26.9 26.8
38.9 41.3 36.3 30.3 44.4 32.3 26.5 2.5 16.8 3.3 17.6 17.5 25.0 33.6
57.9 49.0 55.2 51.3 57.8 38.3 27.5 12.5 17.3 14.8 47.8 40.8 35.3 38.8
30.9 25.4 35.4 37.3 36.3 22.5 12.8 3.8 6.5 6.8 22.8 25.0 21.5 23.3
67.6 67.9 63.8 61.3 69.3 52.5 36.8 25.8 39.8 18.1 45.8 47.3 34.4 51.9
53.6 51.8 48.4 52.3 58.4 43.5 20.0 9.3 21.8 4.8 26.7 31.5 30.8 37.8
28.8 23.1 31.9 27.5 30.5 30.8 10.0 3.8 9.3 3.3 13.0 18.5 25.1 28.3
56.4 59.0 58.9 54.0 61.7 46.8 23.8 20.3 35.3 25.6 36.1 41.3 42.0 45.1
53.2 49.7 54.5 42.3 48.8 44.3 22.1 10.0 30.5 17.8 22.8 36.5 31.7 35.3
42.4 37.9 39.8 28.3 38.3 34.8 18.8 4.5 26.3 8.8 24.2 29.0 23.3 34.1
41.8 49.2 45.5 38.3 44.0 42.0 20.1 7.5 24.5 6.8 24.0 30.0 23.4 35.6
35.9 33.1 40.1 31.0 32.3 34.0 17.5 10.5 13.5 -0.3 13.7 20.3 15.3 24.8
2.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 4.3 3.3 3.5 2.3 1.3 3.8 2.8 5.0 1.3 1.3
2.0 4.4 3.0 4.8 3.8 4.5 5.3 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.8 0.8 2.5
15.3 14.1 15.6 17.2 16.5 14.0 21.8 11.5 13.8 18.8 11.1 14.8 16.8 15.8
27.8 23.3 27.9 24.2 24.8 26.5 24.0 26.0 26.5 20.8 27.0 20.8 27.8 29.3
51.4 48.2 48.5 47.0 47.0 45.8 43.5 53.8 53.0 48.3 54.3 53.8 51.8 49.1
0.8 6.2 1.5 3.5 3.8 6.0 2.0 3.3 2.5 5.8 1.5 3.0 1.8 2.0
400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400.0 400.0 400.0 400.0
399 390 398 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 396 400 400 399
99.8 97.5 99.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.0 100.0 100.0 99.8
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Table E.3.1: Inflation Attitudes Survey (Per cent)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Q.1 Generally, prices of items that were sold N1,000 a year ago now
sells for?
Less than N1000 4.0 5.1 6.5 7.7 11.0 11.8 12.5 10.0 10.2 8.7 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.7
N1000 6.2 12.5 8.8 14.2 15.9 23.2 17.6 17.7 15.5 15.7 14.4 9.8 14.1 14.1 12.0
N1010 to N1030 4.7 21.5 29.0 18.4 26.2 19.4 23.3 23.1 21.6 23.5 26.9 22.3 22.1 22.9 23.0
Above N1030 74.8 53.3 40.8 40.8 33.4 31.7 34.4 34.5 43.0 40.3 38.5 51.1 47.0 44.9 41.4
No idea 10.1 7.6 14.8 11.3 12.1 13.8 12.2 14.7 9.6 11.7 13.2 10.2 10.4 11.8 16.7
Median (%) 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.0
Q. 2 How much will you expect prices of items that are currently sold for N1,000 to change in the next 12 months?
Less than N1000 15.7 22.6 16.5 21.1 27.2 24.5 21.2 20.9 28.0 26.2 21.2 12.3 15.6 15.9 16.9
N1000 8.7 10.2 8.0 13.8 16.1 14.9 16.1 14.1 13.5 13.8 13.2 11.9 16.9 15.8 14.6
N1010 to N1030 6.9 20.5 28.3 21.2 22.0 24.1 23.9 24.3 23.8 22.3 22.0 24.2 24.1 24.5 24.5
Above N1030 54.8 34.6 32.6 28.1 21.4 21.9 26.2 26.2 24.2 26.5 30.2 41.4 29.7 29.4 27.2
No idea 13.6 12.1 14.6 12.2 11.8 14.5 12.6 14.5 10.5 11.3 13.4 10.3 13.6 14.2 16.8
Median (%) 3.0 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.8
Q. 3 If prices started to rise faster than they do now, do you think Nigeria's economy would…?
End up stronger 8.0 9.7 7.9 8.8 10.8 10.3 15.0 16.9 14.7 10.4 9.0 9.9 10.0 8.5 9.6
Make no difference 14.0 13.0 21.5 18.1 21.8 22.5 23.7 23.0 21.7 24.3 26.6 26.2 22.7 23.3 28.7
Be weak 65.1 65.4 55.2 58.4 53.4 51.1 43.5 46.0 47.1 49.5 49.6 46.0 50.3 48.3 44.5
Don't know 12.5 11.9 15.3 14.7 14.1 16.1 17.8 14.1 16.4 15.9 14.7 17.9 16.9 19.8 17.0
Q. 4 What do you think of this year's Government anticipated inflation rate?

Too high 45.7 45.8 45.3 46.2 44.7 40.0 38.3 42.9 48.2 43.2 46.5 40.2 45.6 42.3 43.3
Too low 20.5 17.7 21.4 14.7 14.8 17.9 22.7 19.4 16.8 13.3 17.0 18.9 16.1 18.9 15.5
About right 13.9 16.2 12.6 18.2 20.2 17.2 17.0 18.7 17.2 21.6 19.9 20.8 17.7 17.8 18.9
No idea 19.2 20.0 20.7 20.9 20.1 24.9 21.9 18.9 17.8 21.8 16.6 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.3
Q. 5 How has interest on bank loans changed over the last 12 months?
Risen significantly 31.1 27.6 27.5 24.1 27.6 29.8 23.9 27.3 26.2 27.5
Risen marginally 18.8 21.9 24.3 26.6 26.2 28.0 23.2 25.0 27.0 25.0
No change 13.6 13.1 14.9 12.4 15.3 16.4 19.3 17.0 18.6 15.0
Fallen marginally 9.6 10.3 8.8 11.5 9.2 7.0 8.9 8.5 7.4 8.9
Fallen significantly 6.6 6.9 5.6 8.8 4.7 4.6 5.7 4.5 2.7 3.5
No idea 20.3 20.2 19.0 16.6 16.9 14.3 19.0 17.7 18.0 20.0
Total saying 'rise' 60.2 59.8 57.9 55.1 52.8 49.9 49.5 51.8 50.7 53.8 57.8 47.1 52.3 53.2 52.5
Total saying 'fall' 12.1 9.1 10.0 13.9 16.9 16.2 17.2 14.4 20.3 13.9 11.6 14.6 13.0 10.1 12.4
Net rise 48.1 50.7 47.9 41.2 35.9 33.7 32.3 37.4 30.4 39.9 46.2 32.5 39.3 43.1 40.1
Q. 6 How would you expect interest rates to change over the next 12 months?
Rise a lot 15.0 16.4 16.0 18.5 14.8 15.5 17.9 17.4 14.8 16.2 18.9
Rise a little 26.3 22.6 25.3 27.9 29.8 21.6 25.1 27.9 25.3 23.5 26.2
Stay about the same 16.0 14.6 16.5 14.4 13.1 19.3 17.4 17.5 19.8 19.5 16.2
Fall a little 18.5 17.4 15.8 14.2 20.0 17.7 18.0 14.8 16.8 16.9 15.1
Fall a lot 9.7 10.8 10.7 10.2 7.6 12.0 9.9 7.1 8.8 7.4 7.0
No idea 14.6 18.3 15.6 14.7 14.7 13.8 11.6 15.4 14.5 16.5 16.4
Total saying 'rise' 38.8 36.0 39.3 38.4 41.3 39.0 41.3 46.4 44.6 37.1 43.0 45.3 40.1 39.7 45.1
Total saying 'fall' 32.0 34.0 27.9 26.9 28.2 28.2 26.5 24.4 27.6 29.7 27.9 21.9 25.6 24.3 22.1
Net rise 6.8 2.0 11.4 11.5 13.1 10.8 14.8 22.0 17.0 7.4 15.1 23.4 14.5 15.4 23.0
Q. 7 What do you think would be best for the NIgerian economy, for lending interest rates to rise or to fall?
Go up 13.7 14.1 16.3 15.1 22.1 17.7 21.4 23.7 18.6 18.1 15.1 19.6 16.6 16.6 17.2
Go down 52.4 54.5 51.0 51.9 47.5 49.3 43.3 42.6 49.0 43.0 46.8 40.2 42.6 40.6 43.8
Remain unchanged 12.7 17.5 15.4 19.6 29.0 17.8 20.4 19.4 17.5 23.0 23.4 24.2 25.5 25.9 23.0
No idea 13.1 13.8 17.3 12.5 1.2 15.2 14.9 14.2 13.0 15.9 14.8 15.9 15.2 16.7 15.9
Q. 8a And which would be best for you personally, for interest rates to…*
Go up 11.0 13.9 12.2 16.4 20.0 17.0 21.4 24.3 20.3 20.1 13.8 18.3 16.8 15.1 14.9
Go down 67.6 75.2 68.4 62.8 63.9 64.8 43.3 56.9 62.8 57.3 59.9 54.4 56.6 57.6 55.2
Make no difference 9.1 10.4 17.3 18.9 22.6 16.9 20.4 17.7 15.2 18.8 19.4 17.8 17.1 18.5 18.4
No idea 8.9 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.5 1.4 14.9 1.1 1.3 3.7 6.8 8.2 8.9 8.4 11.3
Table E.3.1: Inflation Attitudes Survey (Per cent)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Q. 8b Do you agree with the following statements? a) rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise slowly in the short term - say a month or two.
Agree strongly 21.3 23.8 18.8 25.2 30.1 27.8 22.4 22.8 24.6 24.9 22.9 22.0 20.0 21.3 24.2
Agree 32.2 33.6 32.5 27.8 31.0 26.9 28.2 28.7 31.5 29.9 33.0 30.0 32.9 31.3 31.4
Neither agree nor disagree 12.8 11.7 15.3 13.6 14.0 11.9 14.2 12.3 12.7 13.8 12.6 15.2 15.9 17.8 17.1
Disagree 13.8 14.1 14.5 12.1 10.9 17.0 15.9 17.3 12.4 15.3 14.4 13.8 16.5 13.1 13.7
Disagree strongly 7.2 6.2 5.2 6.8 5.1 4.4 6.9 6.3 6.2 5.0 5.1 5.5 4.4 4.9 3.5
Don't know 12.1 10.5 13.8 14.5 8.6 12.0 12.5 12.6 12.5 11.2 12.0 13.6 10.4 11.5 10.1
Total agree 53.5 57.4 51.3 53.0 61.1 54.7 50.6 51.5 56.1 54.8 55.9 52.0 52.9 52.6 55.6
Total disagree 21.0 20.3 19.7 18.9 16.0 21.4 22.8 23.6 18.6 20.3 19.5 19.3 20.9 18.0 17.2
Net agree 32.5 37.1 31.6 34.1 45.1 33.3 27.8 27.9 37.5 34.5 36.4 32.7 32.0 34.6 38.4
8c A rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise more slowly in the medium term - say a year or two
Agree strongly 14.8 17.1 11.7 18.1 18.6 20.1 20.6 21.2 19.2 17.6 20.7 17.1 16.5 17.0 18.6
Agree 32.5 34.8 32.9 27.8 29.3 28.3 30.2 28.4 30.3 30.7 33.2 26.8 34.6 29.6 29.8
Neither agree nor disagree 14.1 12.3 16.4 16.3 14.8 11.3 13.1 12.7 16.1 15.7 14.0 17.5 16.8 17.6 16.0
Disagree 15.2 17.8 15.8 14.5 17.6 19.6 14.7 15.4 12.7 15.8 13.8 16.1 14.8 16.8 16.4
Disagree strongly 8.5 5.3 8.4 6.8 5.2 6.4 7.1 8.0 8.8 8.6 5.8 7.0 4.9 5.2 5.7
Don't know 6.7 12.4 14.9 15.6 12.4 14.3 14.2 14.3 12.3 11.6 12.5 15.5 12.4 13.8 13.3
Total agree 47.3 51.9 44.6 45.9 47.9 48.4 50.8 49.6 49.5 48.3 53.9 43.9 51.1 46.6 48.4
Total disagree 23.7 23.1 24.2 21.3 22.8 26.0 21.8 23.4 21.5 24.4 19.6 23.1 19.7 22.0 22.1
Net agree 23.6 28.8 20.4 24.6 25.1 22.4 29.0 26.2 28.0 23.9 34.3 20.8 31.4 24.6 26.3
Q.9 If a choice had to be made, either to raise interest rates to try to keep inflation down; or keep interest rates down and allow inflation to rise, which would you prefer?
Interest rates to rise 48.2 50.8 52.7 41.6 52.1 49.3 45.5 49.2 48.8 52.4 48.2 45.3 48.5 47.9 46.3
Interest rate to fall 14.1 14.8 15.9 16.1 15.0 14.1 21.3 19.5 20.1 17.0 21.4 19.6 15.3 18.1 17.2
No idea 36.8 34.1 31.3 42.2 32.4 36.6 33.2 31.2 30.9 30.7 30.5 33.2 32.1 33.7 36.2
Q.10 Which group of people meets to set Nigeria's monetary policy rate?
Monetary Policy Committee 55.9 59.5 61.2 54.7 55.6 49.6 40.6 45.5 49.2 49.9 55.8 44.7 49.8 53.9 51.0
The Government 9.4 7.0 7.0 10.4 9.7 11.4 10.0 9.7 10.1 12.0 24.0 7.5 9.3 8.5 11.1
Federal Ministry of Finance 8.7 10.5 9.5 12.5 11.6 12.5 24.8 21.4 18.3 17.8 12.7 16.5 18.7 12.5 13.7
National Assembly 4.0 2.4 3.2 3.9 7.8 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.0 5.1 4.9 6.5 5.3 6.5 4.7
Others 1.2 1.0 2.0 0.9 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.6 4.0 2.2 2.1 2.6
Don't know 20.0 19.2 17.0 17.6 14.2 19.4 16.6 15.3 13.9 13.1 0.0 20.9 14.7 16.5 16.9
Q.11 Which of these groups do you think influences the direction of the interest rates?
Government ministers 3.1 2.4 4.3 4.9 4.7 6.8 40.6 6.7 4.3 8.9 5.2 5.7 5.2 6.4 8.3
Civil servants 2.8 1.8 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.1 10.0 7.2 6.7 6.6 5.7 5.7 5.2 4.3 6.0
CBN 76.9 82.3 77.5 75.9 75.7 70.4 24.8 70.0 74.1 70.3 75.8 69.5 73.8 76.2 70.3
Banks 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.7 3.2 5.0
No idea 13.1 9.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 14.2 2.7 11.0 10.6 9.9 9.1 14.8 11.0 9.9 10.3
Q.12 Which of the following best describes the independence of the Monetary Policy Committee?
Influenced by the Government 25.3 28.6 26.8 22.3 20.9 25.3 24.0 23.7 24.1 23.5
Influenced by the federal ministry of finance 28.9 26.7 30.1 32.3 20.9 32.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 27.7
Influenced by National Assembly 20.5 21 21.4 25.7 21.1 20.1 22.6 26.1 25.5 26.1
Not influenced by any arm of Government 8.0 8.6 7.5 7.2 11.8 7.0 7.9 10.2 11.5 8.3
No idea 17.2 15 14.1 12.4 13.8 14.6 18.6 13.7 12.7 14.2
Q.13 Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Central Bank of Nigeria
Very satisfied 20.2 27.1 21.4 30.8 27.5 26.0 29.6 35.7 28.7 35.6 35.5 28.8 20.7 23.7 22.4
Fairly satisfied 44.6 44.6 41.6 36.7 45.2 38.6 39.7 35.2 44.7 35.3 34.6 34.8 40.8 41.1 38.2
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 12.4 12.3 17.6 15.7 11.0 14.5 10.5 10.5 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.5 12.8 16.4 19.2
Fairly dissatisfied**
Very dissatisfied 12.8 8.4 8.6 7.3 8.0 9.7 6.1 9.0 5.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 10.0 10.7 12.2
No idea 9.2 7.1 8.7 9.5 8.3 11.3 14.0 9.6 7.6 7.2 8.2 15.0 7.7 8.0 8.0
Total satisfied 64.8 71.7 63.0 67.5 72.7 64.6 69.3 70.9 73.4 70.9 70.1 63.6 61.5 64.8 60.6
Total dissatisfied 12.8 8.4 8.6 7.3 8.0 9.7 6.1 9.0 5.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 10.0 10.7 12.2
Net satisfied 52.0 63.3 54.4 60.2 64.7 54.9 63.2 61.9 67.8 62.5 62.0 55.7 51.5 54.1 48.4
Note: Revised template by Q4, 2017; however, time series data on variables are continued.
*Question was discontinued at Q4, 2017.
**Introduced at Q4, 2017.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
8.0 7.8 7.1 8.1 7.4 7.6 7.6 10.4 9.5 7.0 6.9 10.4 9.6 8.8 7.4 6.9 2.3 7.6 10.8 8.6 8.7 11.6 14.7 15.5 9.7 8.2 10.0 6.3
18.4 15.0 18.0 18.3 19.7 17.8 22.2 21.6 22.7 19.8 21.8 23.0 17.9 13.5 13.7 13.7 6.9 14.4 15.3 6.7 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.4 11.4 11.0 9.1 8.8
25.2 23.3 24.9 23.7 24.7 31.3 29.1 27.8 24.7 24.6 24.0 21.5 23.4 14.7 16.0 12.6 11.1 13.9 17.9 15.5 16.9 17.5 13.5 17.0 19.6 28.4 22.0 21.2
35.3 36.9 35.6 33.6 36.2 31.9 30.4 27.1 30.5 34.7 35.4 30.0 35.9 50.1 53.3 54.8 62.1 52.1 45.2 62.6 61.2 58.0 56.5 53.7 56.7 49.6 54.9 59.5
13.1 17.0 14.1 16.3 11.9 11.2 10.8 13.0 12.6 13.8 11.8 15.0 13.2 12.9 9.6 12.0 17.6 11.8 10.8 6.6 5.8 6.3 6.5 5.3 2.6 2.8 3.8 4.1
2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 6.8 4.2 3.1 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.8 3.1 0.1 4.1
17.5 15.9 18.4 21.8 18.4 20.2 19.6 20.6 21.4 29.3 29.3 33.7 24.2 30.1 26.4 26.9 21.2 30.2 27.8 35.4 29.1 24.3 28.4 22.5 22.3 19.2 17.7 15.3
18.4 14.8 17.2 16.2 17.0 18.4 20.8 18.1 20.8 17.4 16.8 16.2 15.8 15.4 12.9 13.1 12.1 15.9 18.8 8.5 7.8 7.6 8.5 8.4 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.7
26.2 27.3 25.8 23.1 26.5 28.7 28.0 28.3 23.5 21.9 21.9 19.1 22.9 17.9 18.9 19.4 16.6 17.7 19.1 13.6 14.2 15.8 12.5 14.3 16.5 22.1 20.4 19.3
22.9 23.9 21.5 21.6 22.9 20.1 19.5 18 20 17.2 17 15 22.3 21.9 26.6 24.7 30.6 21.6 20.0 33.0 41.1 43.9 40.8 48.2 44.2 43.3 44.0 47.8
15.0 18.0 16.9 17.4 15.2 12.6 12.1 14.9 14.3 14.1 14.9 16.1 14.8 14.8 15.2 15.9 19.5 14.7 14.3 9.5 7.8 8.4 9.6 6.4 4.7 3.2 5.4 5.0
1.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.0
13.5 8.9 12.2 12.3 11.2 12.7 11.6 14.0 12.8 10.5 12.9 12.7 13.2 11.8 10.9 10.4 13.5 13.4 12.1 11.3 11.6 11.0 12.1 14.2 8.1 5.3 6.4 6.7
24.3 22.1 25.9 23.7 24.8 23.4 31.1 27.9 24.2 25.1 25.7 23.8 25.5 23.9 22.0 20.4 18.6 20.3 23.7 21.4 16.2 17.7 17.7 18.3 20.7 22.3 19.5 20.9
45.5 48.2 43.8 43.7 42.7 44.0 39.7 38.8 44.2 46.1 42.8 42.1 45.1 46.4 50.4 48.4 50.4 50.0 47.0 57.2 54.7 49.7 48.4 44.0 49.3 51.5 52.9 50.1
17.0 17.0 17.9 20.2 21.3 19.7 17.6 19.1 18.8 18.2 18.7 21.5 16.2 18.0 16.7 20.9 17.4 16.3 17.1 10.1 17.2 21.5 21.6 22.8 21.9 20.9 21.2 22.3
43.8 44.1 41.7 46.7 40.7 40.2 39.2 39.2 36.1 40.2 35.3 32.3 37.9 35.8 40.8 40.8 39.9 38.9 35.9 42.6 30.8 27.2 30.0 26.4 16.5 14.4 17.5 19.7
16.7 13.3 16.9 15.1 16.6 15.4 18.5 16.9 19.0 15.3 17.3 17.4 15.5 16.6 15.7 17.3 17.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 17.2 14.3 16.6 19.7 16.4 15.8 14.9 15.6
18.2 17.6 19.8 15.9 21.8 20.9 22.9 19.2 19.4 19.1 23.4 20.9 23.8 24.0 21.8 18.9 20.9 19.4 20.0 20.5 14.9 19.5 19.3 22.0 17.7 22.2 20.0 20.9
21.1 24.6 21.4 22.2 20.9 23.4 19.5 24.7 25.5 25.2 24.0 29.4 22.6 23.6 21.7 22.9 22.0 23.3 25.6 18.6 37.0 38.7 33.8 31.6 49.4 47.6 47.5 43.8
28.1 27.4 29.7 29.6 29.1 27.5 23.3 25.1 26 27.2 25.1 24.7 23.9 28.8 26.6 31.5 30.0 30.9 28.4 28.9 14.8 14.5 14.8 14.9 6.0 4.3 4.4 5.9
27.6 23 21.9 24.2 23.1 25.8 26.5 24.3 24.3 26.2 24.5 24.3 23.5 21.7 23.6 23.3 24.6 22.8 22.0 27.4 16.8 17.9 14.5 13.7 16.2 21.1 19.8 21.7
15.6 15.8 18.6 17.2 20.2 20.1 22.7 20.1 17.7 16.2 21.7 19.6 19.8 16.3 18.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 19.2 15.4 15.3 17.0 18.1 16.8 17.9 18.7 20.0 20.8
7.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 7.9 7.6 8.7 9.2 8.4 6.4 6.4 7.3 9.0 8.9 7.7 7.3 8.2 7.1 8.5 4.7 4.5 5.4 4.7 6.4 4.9 4.6 6.5 6.2
3.1 2.9 3.1 4.1 2.9 3.3 4.1 3.1 4.3 3.8 3.5 2.5 4.3 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.1 4.3 3.4 4.3 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 1.6 1.4
18.2 22.4 18.6 16.7 16.7 15.7 14.7 18.2 19.2 20.1 18.8 21.6 19.4 20.5 19.6 17.6 16.4 18.6 17.5 20.2 44.3 43.2 45.4 45.6 52.6 48.6 47.6 44.1
55.7 50.4 51.6 53.8 52.2 53.3 49.8 49.4 50.3 53.4 49.6 49.0 47.4 50.5 50.2 54.8 54.6 53.7 50.4 56.3 31.6 32.4 29.3 28.6 22.2 25.4 24.2 27.6
10.5 11.2 11.3 12.4 10.8 10.9 12.8 12.3 12.7 10.2 9.9 9.8 13.3 12.7 12.1 12.2 13.0 11.2 12.8 8.1 8.8 7.4 7.0 9.0 7.3 7.3 8.1 7.6
45.2 39.2 40.3 41.4 41.4 42.4 37.0 37.1 37.6 43.2 39.7 39.2 34.1 37.8 38.1 42.6 41.7 42.5 37.6 48.2 22.8 25.0 22.3 19.6 14.9 18.1 16.1 20.0
16.5 15.9 16.9 16.2 14.1 14.4 17.4 16.1 15.8 10.9 12.6 11.7 13.3 13.2 17.5 17.9 16.4 14.0 14.4 15.2 12.2 11.0 10.0 10.0 5.4 4.3 4.9 7.5
26.0 21.8 23.1 23.1 24.8 20.3 21.7 21.0 21.4 18.2 20.7 20.7 22.2 19.0 19.3 19.5 21.9 21.9 20.2 21.7 14.7 15.6 13.5 13.0 14.5 17.6 16.5 17.3
16.4 16.1 18.2 16.0 17.9 20.4 21.5 18.3 16.9 16.6 18.6 17.9 17.6 18.4 18.7 16.9 17.4 17.0 17.7 15.8 13.2 16.3 17.3 13.5 15.5 16.6 17.8 17.8
15.9 14.2 13.7 16.4 18.9 21.8 16.1 19.4 18.3 23.8 22.2 22.7 21.5 21.2 18.4 19.2 18.7 20.5 20.4 17.7 10.9 9.7 7.9 11.0 9.6 8.4 9.9 9.5
8.9 10.9 10.5 12.1 9.5 8.8 10.4 9.9 9.5 14.4 10.3 10.2 11.0 11.1 9.2 11.6 10.5 11.7 12.8 12.7 6.6 5.9 6.7 6.4 4.8 6.8 4.8 5.6
16.3 21.1 17.7 16.2 14.8 14.3 12.9 15.4 18.2 16.1 15.6 16.8 14.3 17.1 16.9 14.9 15.1 15.0 14.4 16.8 42.4 41.5 44.5 46.1 50.1 46.3 46.0 42.3
42.5 37.7 40.0 39.3 38.9 34.7 39.1 37.1 37.2 29.1 33.3 32.4 35.5 32.2 36.8 37.4 38.3 35.9 34.6 36.9 26.9 26.6 23.5 23.0 19.9 21.9 21.4 24.8
24.8 25.1 24.2 28.5 28.4 30.6 26.5 29.3 27.8 38.2 32.5 32.9 32.5 32.3 27.6 30.8 29.3 32.2 33.2 30.4 17.5 15.6 14.6 17.4 14.4 15.2 14.7 15.1
17.7 12.6 15.8 10.8 10.5 4.1 12.6 7.8 9.4 -9.1 0.8 -0.5 3.0 -0.1 9.2 6.6 9.0 3.7 1.4 6.5 9.4 10.9 8.9 5.6 5.5 6.7 6.7 9.7
21.4 18.0 18.6 18.8 17.2 18.8 20.8 20.1 16.2 16.2 18.4 18.0 17.4 18.7 21.7 20.4 19.1 16.2 16.4 19.6 13.3 12.8 15.6 11.1 5.9 4.9 6.5 5.2
40.9 39.3 41.0 43.1 44.1 44.9 40.1 40.8 38.9 43.6 43.1 42.2 40.9 39.4 41.1 40.9 40.3 45.2 45.1 54.3 41.5 37.2 34.4 33.0 34.8 32.7 37.9 39.0
21.7 22.3 23.8 21.3 21.2 22.6 24.0 21.9 26.6 23.4 21.6 20.9 26.1 22.7 19.5 20.6 23.2 21.4 23.3 11.7 8.5 13.2 11.1 12.7 14.6 18.1 14.6 16.2
16.0 20.5 16.4 16.7 17.6 13.6 15.2 17.1 18.4 16.7 16.7 18.9 15.5 19.1 17.7 18.1 17.3 17.1 15.1 14.0 36.4 35.0 38.3 40.2 44.7 44.3 40.6 39.5
19.3 16.1 18.9 18.0 16.4 18.2 18.0 17.4 16.8 16.5 16.3 14.8 16.5 15.0 18.0 18.6 15.8 14.7 14.5
55.6 54.4 51.7 57.2 58.5 57.4 53.1 55.9 54.6 55.5 56.3 56.8 57.8 55.9 55.7 57.0 55.7 59.0 58.7
18.2 18.7 18.3 15.6 17.1 16.9 20.6 17.6 20.3 17.6 16.9 17.6 17.0 19.2 16.3 14.8 17.4 16.3 17.5
6.8 10.7 10.9 9.2 8.0 7.4 8.2 9.1 8.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 8.8 9.9 10.0 9.6 11.1 9.8 9.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
27.4 24.9 23.9 24.3 23.3 24.0 21.3 21.7 21.3 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.1 22.9 22.4 24.0 22.1 23.0 22.1 21.8 13.1 15.0 11.2 10.4 5.4 7.3 8.6 7.5
33.5 29.4 34.7 33.8 33.5 33.9 33.5 31.8 31.8 32.4 37.7 37.3 35.1 34.4 33.8 28.4 29.8 32.5 30.9 34.4 27.1 24.9 25.2 24.8 30.2 28.2 30.5 29.8
13.6 14.5 14.2 15.3 15.3 16.1 19.7 19.2 16.8 16.5 18.1 16.4 19.7 17.4 17.4 18.6 18.6 18.4 20.0 15.3 12.6 10.0 11.9 12.8 15.4 17.9 16.0 18.3
11.3 10.7 11.6 11 12.9 12.3 12.1 11.8 12.6 12.3 10.7 10.5 12.0 10.6 11.7 13.2 13.8 10.7 12.8 11.9 9.2 10.0 9.6 8.5 5.9 6.0 6.0 7.2
4.0 4.8 3.7 4.4 3.7 4.5 4.1 4.1 6.6 7.0 3.6 4.3 2.5 4.2 3.9 5.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 5.3 3.2 4.0 5.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 3.1 2.4
10.2 15.7 11.8 11.2 11.2 9.1 9.3 11.4 11.0 13.1 10.7 11.6 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.7 11.3 10.4 11.3 34.9 36.1 37.0 40.5 40.8 38.4 35.7 34.9
60.9 54.3 58.6 58.1 56.8 57.9 54.8 53.5 53.1 50.9 56.8 57.2 55.2 57.3 56.2 52.4 51.9 55.5 53.0 56.2 40.2 40.0 36.4 35.2 35.6 35.5 39.0 37.3
15.3 15.5 15.3 15.4 16.6 16.8 16.2 15.9 19.2 19.3 14.3 14.8 14.5 14.8 15.6 18.3 17.8 14.9 16.6 17.2 12.3 14.0 14.7 11.5 8.2 8.1 9.1 9.6
45.6 38.8 43.3 42.7 40.2 41.1 38.6 37.6 33.9 31.6 42.5 42.4 40.7 42.5 40.6 34.1 34.0 40.6 36.4 39.0 27.9 26.0 21.7 23.7 27.4 27.4 29.9 27.7
19.7 17.0 16.5 18.7 17.7 18.1 15.7 15.8 15.2 13.7 15.5 15.7 17.3 15.6 15.9 17.2 17.7 18.4 17.3 17.7 10.9 13.1 9.1 10.5 6.4 7.7 8.8 8.5
33.4 28.3 32.9 30.3 32 31.1 31.2 28.8 30.7 29.7 35.5 32.6 33.4 31.7 30.4 28.9 29.0 32.9 30.6 35.0 28.3 26.1 26.2 23.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 26.9
15.1 15.7 15.5 15.5 17.2 17.0 18.8 18.4 16.7 16.5 17.1 16.6 19.4 16.7 18.6 19.5 18.4 16.5 20.9 17.5 12.5 11.2 12.4 13.1 15.7 17.6 16.2 18.0
13.8 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.7 15.2 15.6 15.7 16.0 17.4 13.2 15.3 14.0 16.0 16.0 16.3 14.8 13.0 12.5 13.5 10.3 9.8 10.0 8.9 7.0 5.8 6.6 8.4
5.3 6.3 5.8 6.1 6.4 7.3 5.7 6.1 8.9 7.0 5.2 5.9 4.6 5.8 6.6 4.7 6.1 5.2 6.1 4.7 3.7 3.7 4.6 3.9 2.6 2.6 3.3 3.1
12.6 17.2 13.7 14 13.2 11.3 12.9 15.3 12.5 15.8 13.5 13.8 11.3 14.2 12.6 13.3 14.0 13.9 12.5 11.7 34.3 36.2 37.7 40.5 40.5 38.4 37.1 35.1
53.1 45.3 49.4 49.0 49.7 49.2 46.9 44.6 45.9 43.4 51.0 48.3 50.7 47.3 46.3 46.1 46.7 51.3 47.9 52.7 39.2 39.2 35.3 33.6 34.3 35.6 36.7 35.4
19.1 21.8 21.3 21.6 20.1 22.5 21.3 21.8 24.9 24.4 18.4 21.2 18.6 21.8 22.6 21.0 20.9 18.2 18.6 18.2 14.0 13.5 14.6 12.8 9.6 8.4 9.9 11.5
34.0 23.5 28.1 27.4 29.6 26.7 25.6 22.8 21.0 19.0 32.6 27.1 32.1 25.5 23.7 25.1 25.9 33.1 29.3 34.5 25.2 25.7 20.7 20.8 24.7 27.2 26.8 23.9
46.9 43.7 45.7 42.2 44.4 45.9 44.7 41.8 42.4 44.2 45.5 45.6 46.0 45.0 43.4 45.7 44.7 42.2 44.2 38.6 27.2 26.3 23.9 21.5 20.8 23.7 22.5 19.0
19.4 16.8 18.7 20.4 19.0 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.2 17.7 21.2 16.7 22.1 20.2 21.3 20.3 18.6 17.7 21.7 36.5 31.6 28.0 28.2 25.4 29.3 29.4 33.7 38.1
33.4 39.3 35.4 37.2 36.5 32.3 32.9 35.5 35.4 38.1 33.0 37.5 31.7 34.8 35.2 33.9 36.5 39.8 33.9 24.7 40.9 45.6 47.9 50.9 49.9 46.9 43.4 42.9
53.0 53.2 49.3 50.3 52.6 54.4 50.2 48.4 53.3 51.7 48.4 52.0 53.0 52.0 50.4 53.0 52.7 54.5 55.4 55.1 24.7 27.6 21.4 23.6 19.3 21.7 22.2 21.7
11 7.2 10.3 10.7 9.6 8.4 13.6 11.6 12.8 13.7 14.8 11.7 10.0 11.8 12.0 9.6 10.1 11.2 10.3 14.3 16.5 17.0 20.8 18.6 26.3 24.7 29.6 29.9
12.9 12.7 16.9 13.7 15 15.2 15.7 15.7 14.9 12.8 15.1 15.1 16.2 13.6 15.4 16.2 15.6 13.1 15.3 14.4 10.7 10.0 9.7 10.4 5.3 6.6 7.2 8.4
6 5.7 6.4 7.3 6.3 6.0 6.4 7.5 4.7 5.6 5.9 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.6 5.7 5.9 5.0 4.6 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 4.2 2.1 1.9 2.1 3.3
1.9 2.1 2.4 1.6 2 2.1 2 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9
15.3 19.1 14.6 16.4 14.6 13.9 12.1 13.8 12.2 14.1 13.6 14.4 13.2 14.7 13.5 13.6 13.0 14.4 12.6 10.3 41.9 38.3 41.3 41.2 45.8 44.1 38.2 35.8
7.2 4.5 7.0 4.7 4.8 5.0 7.0 4.8 4.1 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.2 7.1 7.6 8.1 6.4 8.7 7.8 6.5 9.3 8.7 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.0 9.6 8.6
5.1 5 4.7 6.9 6.2 6.2 7.6 8.0 7.7 5.5 7.2 5.9 5.3 7.0 7.3 5.4 7.2 5.6 6.6 5.1 5.2 4.3 4.9 3.8 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.1
72.8 70.2 73.6 71.1 74.1 75.8 71.8 72.7 75.2 76.0 73.7 75.0 78.6 72.3 71.8 73.4 73.8 72.1 73.2 70.0 38.2 40.6 35.0 33.3 31.7 35.7 37.2 39.9
4.2 4.9 4.2 4.1 5.3 3.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 2.9 4.8 4.5 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.0 10.8 9.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 13.3 9.7 13.8 13.1
10.7 15.4 10.3 13.1 9.6 9.3 9.0 10.0 8.6 10.2 8.8 9.6 8.1 10.5 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.9 8.3 7.6 37.3 35.4 38.3 38.9 41.4 41.2 35.4 34.3
23.8 19.7 23.3 20.4 20.4 19.3 21.9 19.2 19.3 18.0 23.4 23.0 20.5 25.1 24.9 22.1 20.6 22.1 23.6 27.4 18.8 20.6 20.7 21.7 25.6 25.0 27.5 27.8
27.3 27.7 29.0 28.4 27.7 29.2 31.9 29.7 30.2 32.1 29.6 28.9 29.3 27.7 25.8 30.4 29.5 30.7 29.6 24.4 13.7 12.6 14.2 13.6 8.9 8.7 10.1 10.4
27.4 25.7 24.7 26.3 28.9 27.5 25.2 26.0 26.9 24.2 25.3 24.7 28.6 24.4 24.7 25.0 26.2 26.4 26.3 8.5 5.4 8.1 5.1 6.5 4.1 5.4 5.8 6.6
9.1 10.4 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.5 9.7 10.8 10.1 10.0 8.7 7.0 8.6 23.4 14.2 10.7 9.5 9.4 7.5 9.9 11.0 14.6
12.3 16.5 13.5 15.0 12.9 13.2 10.5 14.9 13.1 15.3 10.9 13.0 11.9 12.0 14.4 12.5 15.0 13.7 11.7 16.2 47.7 47.4 49.7 48.4 54.0 50.9 45.5 40.6
22.1 21.2 22.6 23.3 23.7 24.3 25.5 21.2 20.3 19.3 22.9 25.6 21.0 23.8 24.9 20.3 18.6 23.3 25.6 10.1 6.0 6.6 8.2 11.4 4.3 3.6 6.5 4.0
39 41.2 40.1 39.7 39.9 39.3 38.3 38.0 37.8 36.1 41.0 39.5 39.8 38.7 25.8 37.8 30.1 40.9 35.7 35.6 22.8 21.0 20.3 17.6 20.6 22.1 18.9 21.9
16.5 13.7 16.8 15.2 14.8 16.3 16.7 16.4 18.2 18.6 15.3 15.2 16.9 17.5 24.7 19.1 17.9 14.4 19.6 18.5 12.8 11.1 10.3 9.8 16.6 17.0 18.9 18.1
11.4 8.1 7.3 9.0 8.5 6.2 7.0 8.0 10.8
14.3 11.7 11.2 11.1 12.4 10.7 11.4 12.6 14.7 13.8 12.1 9.3 11.7 11.5 10.1 11.9 15.9 10.3 10.4 15.7 14.4 17.6 12.9 14.6 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.6
8.0 12.2 9.2 10.7 9.2 9.3 8.1 11.9 9.1 12.2 8.7 10.3 10.6 8.5 14.4 11.0 11.4 11.1 8.6 8.7 35.8 36.4 39.3 38.1 40.6 38.7 35.4 32.6
61.1 62.4 62.7 63.0 63.6 63.6 63.8 59.2 58.1 55.4 63.9 65.1 60.8 62.5 50.7 58.1 48.7 64.2 61.3 45.7 28.8 27.6 28.5 29.0 24.9 25.7 25.4 25.9
14.3 11.7 11.2 11.1 12.4 10.7 11.4 12.6 14.7 13.8 12.1 9.3 11.7 11.5 10.1 11.9 15.9 10.3 10.4 27.1 22.5 24.9 21.9 23.1 17.9 18.7 20.3 23.4
46.8 50.7 51.5 51.9 51.2 52.9 52.4 46.6 43.4 41.6 51.8 55.8 49.1 51.0 40.6 46.2 32.7 53.9 50.9 18.6 6.3 2.7 6.6 5.9 7.0 7.0 5.1 2.5
Return to Menu
E.4.1: Credit Conditions Survey - Secured Lending
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1(a). How has demand for Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
secured lending for house
purchase from Households Current quarter 50.0 54.0 20.0 21.9 8.3 24.3 32.8 33.4 -6.1 1.5 -15.3 0.7 39.2 13.1 3.8 -2.0 0.5 6.2 16.5 -1.2 13.7 -6.8 -5.5 -2.4 -0.3 -6.2 13.6
changed Next quarter 100.0 57.5 31.0 34.1 21.0 41.1 32.8 21.7 26.0 29.4 -3.7 10.9 34.6 5.3 24.1 6.0 9.7 29.3 23.5 3.3 18.4 13.2 7.7 10.7 21.1 1.8 13.6
of which: Demand for prime Current quarter 11.1 35.0 16.3 19.2 3.0 17.1 36.0 36.9 -5.2 6.0 5.8 0.5 39.4 13.0 -10.3 -2.1 5.7 6.9 18.6 4.2 8.8 2.6 -4.7 -10.6 1.6 9.6 12.3
lending Next quarter 33.0 35.8 20.4 29.0 9.9 36.3 42.5 17.1 15.1 25.9 13.6 15.8 42.4 13.2 -14.7 12.1 11.0 10.1 21.2 7.5 15.5 9.3 2.7 10.7 15.1 16.1 10.9
of which: Demand for buy to let Current quarter -10.1 18.2 3.7 -5.0 -14.8 8.8 19.7 23.5 -27.1 -13.0 -26.4 -11.9 19.8 2.0 6.7 -11.1 0.3 -13.0 -8.4 -6.7 5.0 2.7 -9.7 -18.2 -8.0 -16.2 13.4
lending Next quarter 16.8 37.3 -21.7 22.9 -11.7 10.3 36.9 16.4 29.1 19.0 -19.5 -6.1 35.3 -7.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 -7.5 -10.2 -2.2 5.9 13.6 -2.1 6.9 19.7 -3.7 13.4
of which: Demand for other Current quarter 10.2 25.0 24.7 26.6 30.3 24.6 24.2 24.4 -13.5 -20.3 -28.1 -11.9 14.1 9.6 3.4 -12.9 -5.2 -11.8 19.5 3.7 20.7 2.6 8.3 -11.9 -11.4 -8.3 24.5
1(b). How has demand for
lending Next quarter 45.6 38.6 22.1 32.9 49.5 35.5 28.5 15.9 21.9 16.7 0.6 -6.5 29.8 -4.0 10.7 0.8 10.7 -8.8 27.6 7.2 13.9 23.2 11.4 6.9 27.2 -1.4 24.5
secured lending for consumer
loans from households Current quarter 32.0 57.0 42.3 37.0 31.6 40.4 38.5 38.8 -2.8 15.0 -1.1 18.3 48.6 21.7 30.7 5.6 14.9 9.3 22.6 9.0 39.2 15.4 12.0 3.1 -4.8 30.9 36.7
1(c).
changedHow has demand for Next quarter 59.1 42.4 42.8 53.0 49.0 57.5 47.4 21.5 31.2 38.4 11.0 9.7 43.2 16.2 38.6 12.5 8.2 11.7 29.6 20.9 25.8 24.9 28.8 23.1 28.0 42.1 39.3
secured lending for
mortgage/re-mortgate from Current quarter -1.4 27.6 1.1 20.7 8.6 26.5 29.6 23.7 1.3 1.5 -22.4 10.4 33.5 13.5 5.3 -2.0 -1.4 6.3 -7.7 6.9 -0.2 -9.6 -6.7 -15.9 -9.5 1.7 13.6
2. How has demand
households changedfor Next quarter 28.7 23.7 19.3 32.3 14.2 33.7 29.8 22.3 20.9 29.4 0.6 1.7 33.5 3.4 23.3 16.7 9.7 8.9 0.4 2.2 5.5 3.7 15.4 6.5 9.2 7.4 13.5
secured lending for small
businesses from households Current quarter 28.7 15.0 26.1 28.6 44.6 26.4 46.1 29.2 -7.7 0.5 -7.2 12.1 30.4 23.1 29.8 -1.0 21.8 17.6 7.9 17.7 18.2 -1.8 17.2 24.0 17.3 33.6 43.8
3. How have credit scoring
changed Next quarter 46.0 36.6 15.3 42.8 38.1 34.6 43.8 20.8 26.1 28.0 6.1 25.6 27.5 30.0 43.6 29.0 42.4 41.1 14.1 27.5 15.5 17.1 22.6 28.9 31.3 43.3 32.9
creteria for granting loan
applications by households Current quarter -0.1 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 -7.0 1.6 1.1 2.3 -24.4 3.8 11.9 11.9 20.4 6.4 13.4 7.1 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
changed Next quarter -0.4 4.2 3.7 0.3 -0.3 -4.3 -4.5 1.6 0.0 3.1 -11.1 0.5 12.8 10.4 29.9 9.4 9.7 -6.1 6.1 9.0 0.0 8.8 -4.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 -6.8
4. How has the proportion of
household loan applications Current quarter 30.9 35.9 14.7 35.9 30.6 29.9 43.4 28.6 -13.5 -5.1 -4.2 0.2 -5.2 -13.2 4.1 -11.7 10.1 17.7 -0.9 0.0 10.3 -2.7 14.8 -3.3 7.8 14.6 18.6
being approved changed Next quarter 55.7 41.5 31.8 29.9 32.4 29.9 28.9 19.7 24.9 23.3 11.9 13.0 -2.2 7.5 24.3 3.9 17.7 21.7 11.2 22.6 14.0 21.5 20.7 19.8 17.4 23.4 10.9
5(a). How have the overall
secured lending spreads Current quarter 0.0 -6.1 -1.8 6.4 5.8 7.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 -11.4 -3.5 -0.5 12.5 -11.5 -3.1 -1.7 -6.2 -0.9 -4.3 1.3 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 4.0 -10.5 6.1
changed Next quarter 35.4 -7.0 -0.7 -14.8 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 -4.7 0.0 -3.9 -3.5 4.6 0.0 -6.2 4.0 -18.2 -2.3 -4.3 -5.0 1.8 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 -4.2 0.0 0.0
of which: Spreads on prime Current quarter 5.4 1.8 1.5 -6.1 6.4 -0.1 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -16.5 -4.0 -0.6 9.6 -4.7 -4.5 -3.0 -6.2 -5.1 -4.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 -11.0 5.1
lending Next quarter 3.5 5.4 5.8 -11.7 -1.5 -1.2 0.0 -5.5 0.0 -4.3 -9.2 5.0 2.6 -0.2 -17.0 -18.1 -2.3 -4.3 -5.0 -8.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
of which: Spreads on buy to let Current quarter 6.4 5.2 -0.7 7.2 6.7 9.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -8.8 -3.8 2.8 13.2 -3.4 -14.1 -0.1 -4.5 -4.3 -4.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 12.7 -12.3 5.5
lending Next quarter 0.7 1.5 -0.3 -16.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -5.7 0.0 -5.0 -14.5 7.3 3.1 -0.2 4.5 -19.2 -2.6 -5.0 -5.0 -9.2 -4.9 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.4 0.0 0.0
of which: Spreads on other Current quarter 6.5 6.7 -0.8 9.6 13.4 8.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -13.0 -3.5 2.2 15.1 -4.1 -8.2 -4.9 -4.4 -4.9 -4.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 -11.3 5.5
lending Next quarter 0.7 0.4 7.1 -18.7 4.7 -1.3 0.0 -6.0 0.0 -9.7 -3.5 6.2 3.6 -9.2 -7.2 -18.7 -2.5 -4.9 -5.0 -9.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.2 0.0 0.0
5(b). How have fees on Current quarter 10.1 -2.9 -6.4 2.9 -0.9 -5.2 0.0 2.2 -14.3 -19.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -25.7 -4.2 -1.1 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.5 5.3
secured lending changed Next quarter 5.2 -3.0 0.1 4.9 0.0 -4.2 0.0 -4.2 -5.1 -3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.1 -23.1 -4.3 5.7 -1.1 0.0 -2.6 -3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.2 -2.4 0.0
5(c). How have the maximum Current quarter -0.3 0.0 -0.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 -10.9 8.1 -3.8 -11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.2 0.0 -3.3 -7.2 10.3 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.5 -4.7
loan to value ratios changed Next quarter -2.2 -10.2 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 -4.5 0.0 -6.6 0.0 -3.8 -11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -23.1 0.0 5.7 -1.1 0.0 -2.6 -5.4 0.0 0.0 -3.1 4.2 0.0 0.0
5(d). How have the
maximum loan to income Current quarter -0.4 -4.2 -5.3 4.0 0.5 -1.6 -4.8 0.0 -4.6 -3.8 -4.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -3.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.5 -4.7
ratios changed Next quarter -6.8 -8.8 -5.0 -1.1 0.0 -4.5 -2.4 -4.5 -5.1 -3.8 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -11.5 0.0 7.6 -1.1 0.0 -11.3 -5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.2 -2.4 0.0
6. How has the availability of
secured credit provided to Current quarter -33.7 -18.9 -25.5 -21.3 -16.2 -20.0 -32.5 2.6 -22.6 18.0 -13.1 -36.9 -22.4 -0.5 -44.0 -29.6 -12.5 -28.4 3.8 -9.6 -20.8 -2.2 -10.0 -15.9 -10.5 -19.4 -31.6
households changed Next quarter -49.9 -22.4 -18.7 -11.8 -17.3 -10.9 -27.9 -2.6 -22.5 -16.2 -25.8 -17.3 -33.3 9.1 -32.4 -25.5 -30.4 -13.0 -22.5 -21.7 -19.1 -4.5 -3.5 -15.1 -12.8 -12.9 -25.0
Factors contributing to changes
in credit availability
Current quarter -33.5 -22.7 -14.7 -14.4 -11.2 -2.6 -38.2 2.6 -43.8 -16.2 -57.0 -54.1 -40.3 -55.0 -48.4 -33.4 -28.2 -32.7 -13.7 -19.1 -20.9 -4.5 -26.6 -11.1 -7.3 -12.1 -15.1
Changing economic outlook
Next quarter -52.8 -10.4 -18.3 -11.3 -9.3 -6.3 -35.5 -13.2 -30.4 -25.2 -47.2 -18.0 -21.8 -24.8 -22.7 -27.9 -30.5 -16.1 -20.0 -20.2 -23.6 -4.5 -6.3 -21.1 -7.6 -9.0 -2.7
Current quarter -51.9 -34.2 -33.8 -29.8 -23.4 -20.0 -24.5 -12.6 -30.7 -4.0 -35.3 -30.4 -19.3 -22.7 -23.8 -21.1 -0.7 -24.0 -12.8 -5.4 -21.1 5.6 -6.8 -4.7 -5.6 -34.9 -24.8
Market share objectives
Next quarter -63.7 -19.6 -32.7 -23.4 -18.9 -21.4 -23.4 -11.0 -21.6 -22.7 -29.5 -19.8 -31.3 3.0 -8.4 -19.4 -8.1 -27.7 -12.2 -13.3 -19.9 -8.1 -6.0 -14.9 -14.8 -12.9 -24.8
Current quarter -38.7 -34.4 -5.5 -7.4 -7.4 -17.7 -16.5 -14.2 -51.0 -22.2 -47.0 -28.2 -35.1 -33.7 -23.0 -25.0 -23.1 -21.2 4.8 -15.2 -16.4 -2.1 -15.6 -18.2 -25.9 -23.1 -8.0
Changing appetite for risk
Next quarter -54.2 -22.8 -11.2 -7.7 -10.9 -18.2 -27.3 -4.5 -39.1 -19.2 -35.1 -10.6 -21.2 -6.5 -28.2 -23.1 -19.3 -37.1 -22.0 -23.5 -18.3 -8.1 -0.6 -8.4 -14.2 -15.7 -8.0
Tight wholesale funding Current quarter 0.8 -15.6 -5.0 -4.0 -17.9 -9.8 -11.6 6.3 -24.4 -4.4 -38.3 -19.3 -17.3 -24.7 -40.1 -32.4 -13.8 -21.0 0.0 -3.0 -5.7 2.3 -1.7 -6.2 -11.2 1.9 -12.0
conditions Next quarter -1.1 2.6 -9.0 -7.8 -6.4 -2.3 -10.9 0.6 -12.3 2.7 -22.9 -6.3 -18.4 -19.9 -33.1 -31.5 -26.4 -32.8 -3.4 -13.6 -5.9 -4.5 -1.7 -5.3 -8.7 -10.5 -10.6
Current quarter -26.2 1.1 -18.6 -9.2 -22.9 -5.5 -29.5 15.3 -27.6 5.8 -33.7 -22.9 -23.2 -30.7 -27.9 -17.7 -24.1 -30.4 0.2 -13.9 -26.6 0.6 -10.2 -7.4 -16.3 -4.6 -27.4
Changing liquidity positions
Next quarter -48.1 19.5 -15.4 -24.6 -13.0 -0.5 -27.9 8.1 -19.7 -8.6 -24.9 -12.6 -19.8 -21.2 -28.2 -17.5 -31.2 -44.3 -24.9 -23.3 -14.9 -4.5 -3.7 -8.4 -16.9 -15.7 -16.3
7. Has the default rate on
secured loans to households Current quarter -19.8 1.5 7.5 -31.9 -23.9 -21.1 -23.7 -25.5 5.2 0.1 -9.0 -5.0 22.9 10.9 33.0 -11.3 -12.1 -3.5 12.7 2.2 -7.9 -1.8 6.2 -2.9 -16.4 -14.4 -15.3
changed Next quarter -36.8 -25.1 -12.8 -46.0 -27.0 -25.7 -26.4 -24.3 -19.2 -12.5 -15.5 -18.0 18.8 -4.9 -24.0 -28.6 -30.9 -21.6 -34.1 -16.7 -24.8 -20.1 -28.5 -16.1 -24.9 -19.8 -19.6
8. How have losses given
default to households Current quarter -27.7 -3.0 -2.6 -23.4 -24.1 -11.4 -25.9 -18.7 -8.6 -7.7 -21.0 -7.6 6.5 3.0 11.4 -11.5 -14.5 -8.4 15.5 3.0 -17.9 -5.1 -0.6 -2.3 -7.6 -11.1 -2.9
9. How has the average
changed? Next quarter -32.3 -18.8 -16.7 -23.1 -16.1 -7.9 -20.9 -24.1 -13.0 -11.5 -25.8 -23.2 -0.4 -12.4 -28.4 -17.6 -23.6 -26.1 3.7 -32.7 -19.2 -12.4 -12.5 -21.6 -17.9 -18.5 -20.9
credit quality of new secured
lending to households Current quarter 37.7 23.7 23.0 33.8 33.7 35.3 22.3 26.6 30.5 25.2 30.9 25.3 22.7 20.9 27.7 25.1 15.0 14.0 -0.5 7.4 19.1 10.9 15.9 11.7 15.5 25.4 22.5
10. How
changed has the availability Next quarter 40.7 32.8 26.3 38.9 36.9 43.4 37.3 28.2 32.4 29.2 20.5 28.5 17.9 11.4 2.9 34.3 12.2 1.1 -8.4 -5.7 18.4 12.2 20.1 23.6 15.7 23.8 9.3
of households secured credit
to the following types of
borrowers changed:
Borrowers with low Current quarter 20.8 -13.5 7.3 14.4 18.6 13.4 3.9 -8.2 11.7 20.0 -17.1 9.3 -12.1 -13.5 -16.2 -9.4 8.2 0.0 4.8 -6.1 7.1 4.5 14.7 -0.9 21.2 -9.8 14.0
loan to value ratios
(75% or less) Next quarter 24.7 -6.0 11.2 10.4 6.9 4.9 10.7 -12.6 6.5 16.7 -20.8 12.3 -13.3 -22.3 -2.9 -6.2 11.6 15.1 9.6 4.4 10.9 16.4 14.7 17.4 21.3 5.3 14.0
Borrowers with high Current quarter 13.7 -2.6 10.7 -5.5 -3.0 -12.7 12.7 -9.2 0.0 -0.1 -9.7 12.9 -15.0 -5.0 -11.8 -7.5 -2.1 -19.0 -20.3 4.7 -5.4 -8.6 3.0 -1.3 10.8 -2.3 17.0
loan to value ratios
(more than 75%) Next quarter 15.3 -5.2 2.4 -2.1 -9.2 -10.4 1.9 -9.2 -8.5 -2.3 -6.2 -2.6 -17.1 -7.7 -3.4 -3.1 -2.8 -26.8 -8.9 9.2 -5.4 3.2 5.3 9.4 10.8 -2.4 17.0
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E.4.2: Credit Conditions Survey - Unsecured Lending
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1(a). How has demand for unsecured credit cards lending Current quarter 28.5 -3.1 18.7 20.3 -19.7 30.4 30.3 11.5 11.1 18.9 23.6 10.2 33.9 20.4 -21.8 -5.6 20.3 13.4 -11.1 26.6 24.9 -4.1 13.3 8.4 13.4 33.5 23.4
from households changed Next quarter 34.5 -13.2 25.9 19.6 -25.0 47.7 29.4 16.7 28.7 27.4 46.4 26.4 28.0 23.7 10.9 11.5 12.1 11.6 11.6 -1.9 18.9 3.9 20.6 17.7 3.3 36.0 32.6
1(b). How has demand for unsecured overdraft/ personal Current quarter 9.2 15.8 3.3 -1.3 -10.2 28.0 39.4 29.4 14.0 14.3 22.6 3.2 27.7 17.6 -1.1 7.2 17.4 11.5 -4.0 11.0 30.2 7.3 27.9 -0.8 16.6 41.3 36.4
loans from households changed Next quarter 11.7 -2.4 3.2 7.5 -0.1 38.0 17.4 21.9 33.4 12.8 50.1 16.4 18.7 24.3 9.8 5.4 32.1 10.6 8.2 -7.7 20.9 21.0 31.1 28.4 37.1 47.8 38.5
1(c). How has demand for total unsecured lending from Current quarter 7.5 15.0 2.9 1.3 -16.4 29.4 27.6 16.7 14.0 10.7 11.9 1.2 19.6 15.1 3.8 -3.5 14.0 14.5 -20.0 4.7 24.8 9.7 30.1 0.1 16.4 19.4 27.9
households changed Next quarter 7.7 -3.3 -6.8 -1.3 -16.4 30.4 13.0 9.0 33.4 9.1 39.9 7.2 22.3 24.3 9.8 1.0 18.0 6.8 -23.4 -8.0 15.4 14.1 31.8 20.4 16.7 29.9 27.2
2(a). How has demand for unsecured credit cards lending Current quarter 11.3 2.5 -3.7 -8.1 -9.2 21.4 13.3 -4.1 11.1 13.6 -12.6 22.6 28.3 10.9 9.1 -6.8 23.3 5.5 21.2 12.9 20.7 4.0 14.1 16.5 -0.7 12.1 25.9
from small businesses changed Next quarter 21.7 18.7 -2.6 -13.8 -4.0 7.6 -2.2 15.6 10.8 19.3 15.2 17.4 22.4 19.0 16.0 -16.0 20.1 13.4 -5.9 -1.2 24.0 4.5 22.5 25.1 -4.6 19.9 33.6
2(b). How has demand for unsecured overdraft/ personal Current quarter -5.8 -16.9 0.9 -4.6 7.2 8.6 18.8 1.2 6.6 2.4 -3.1 28.0 28.3 17.3 -3.7 9.5 29.3 16.5 12.0 23.6 30.0 2.1 21.2 7.0 8.5 38.8 28.6
loans from small businesses changed Next quarter 0.6 -2.6 7.4 -1.7 11.4 10.9 4.5 17.0 -1.8 7.4 19.3 26.6 27.5 16.5 9.8 4.5 37.9 22.3 -17.9 4.7 33.0 19.5 45.7 24.0 16.5 35.1 30.0
2(c). How has demand for total unsecured lending from Current quarter -5.8 -15.4 -14.1 -0.6 -5.0 7.4 15.6 -1.6 -1.6 2.6 -5.3 23.2 27.5 10.5 2.0 0.1 21.8 13.6 -2.7 10.6 26.5 17.5 32.7 3.7 25.6 28.5 22.7
small businesses changed Next quarter -4.4 4.5 -7.3 -2.9 -7.4 3.0 4.1 17.7 -1.8 8.2 11.6 23.3 29.8 16.5 9.8 -0.3 28.2 2.1 -15.1 8.9 18.6 10.2 34.5 17.2 16.5 29.4 29.5
3(a). How have credit scoring creteria for granting credit Current quarter 11.1 -2.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.8 -2.5 -5.6 0.0 13.8 8.0 1.1 4.8 13.8 20.8 28.6 2.5 14.6 0.0 18.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0
card loan applications by households changed Next quarter -1.5 0.0 14.3 -9.0 -3.0 -5.3 -4.7 0.8 13.8 20.7 -12.9 7.6 14.7 -4.8 31.5 7.9 32.0 5.9 26.5 14.7 7.5 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
3(b). How have credit scoring creteria for granting
overdraft/personal loan applications by households Current quarter 14.8 9.9 2.7 10.5 11.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 12.4 6.8 0.9 3.8 13.9 22.7 32.6 8.3 22.3 6.3 16.4 0.0 9.5 0.0 -10.2 8.5 -0.1 -7.9 0.0
changed Next quarter 3.1 13.9 13.6 7.6 0.0 -2.7 -4.5 1.6 12.4 17.7 -10.9 6.8 14.9 -3.7 28.0 6.9 29.5 11.0 0.0 13.4 15.9 0.0 3.8 0.0 6.3 2.4 2.5
3(c). How have credit scoring creteria for granting total Current quarter 24.2 11.6 3.0 13.4 12.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 12.4 19.4 3.1 3.8 15.4 22.7 32.6 3.0 24.6 7.2 5.3 7.0 10.4 6.4 0.0 2.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0
unsecured loan applications by households changed Next quarter 24.2 16.5 15.0 8.0 0.0 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 12.4 19.4 -9.1 11.9 16.4 -3.7 28.6 7.6 32.5 12.5 -12.9 14.4 17.4 0.0 4.2 -9.0 19.4 3.3 3.5
4(a). How has the proportion of household credit card loan Current quarter 43.9 26.9 29.9 3.8 20.9 37.2 28.6 28.7 8.5 11.8 1.4 -13.2 11.1 -15.0 -12.6 -14.1 -2.9 -1.0 0.0 -3.8 0.0 4.7 9.0 -15.2 -17.7 21.3 18.8
applications being approved changed Next quarter 50.5 11.3 23.6 12.6 17.9 25.9 25.7 4.8 28.5 17.1 1.4 1.7 11.1 3.5 -2.5 -2.9 -2.9 -13.9 13.3 6.5 2.7 18.4 14.8 9.7 3.6 21.3 18.8
4(b). How has the proportion of household
overdraft/personal loan applications being approved Current quarter 19.1 40.1 7.3 6.0 18.7 33.3 12.1 29.8 -6.3 -1.0 -4.3 -22.7 13.2 -18.9 -14.8 -18.3 -16.7 -16.6 -1.3 -11.2 5.3 8.2 16.4 -8.0 7.3 26.2 23.1
changed Next quarter 12.4 20.4 -2.8 5.8 -2.3 18.9 -4.5 -0.5 -0.8 -6.2 -12.7 -15.9 12.7 -1.7 -17.5 -6.0 -7.9 -9.1 10.3 4.0 7.9 22.4 22.6 12.5 18.2 31.9 31.5
4(c). How has the proportion of household total loan Current quarter 12.5 33.0 -5.4 -3.3 3.3 25.9 10.5 16.5 -7.9 -11.2 -6.3 -26.0 10.0 -18.9 -26.5 -15.3 -13.4 -14.0 -4.0 -11.8 5.7 2.0 15.0 -16.9 -5.7 29.5 26.4
applications being approved changed Next quarter 12.4 20.4 -2.8 5.8 -2.3 18.9 -4.5 -0.5 -0.8 -6.2 -12.7 -15.9 12.7 -1.7 -17.5 -6.0 -7.9 -9.1 10.3 4.0 7.9 22.4 22.6 12.5 18.2 31.9 31.5
5(a). How have spreads on credit cards changed? Current quarter -5.6 -7.9 -4.2 9.0 6.2 1.9 6.9 -3.1 -14.4 -15.5 -8.2 -12.9 -1.0 -8.1 6.5 -5.5 -9.1 3.3 0.0 -5.3 -7.8 0.0 -4.2 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -1.4
Next quarter 2.8 4.2 9.8 6.2 5.0 -0.5 6.9 0.8 0.0 -2.7 -8.4 -2.9 14.2 -3.7 21.2 -2.6 5.7 12.8 13.3 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -2.0
5(b). How have spreads on overdraft/personal loans Current quarter -10.7 -10.0 3.8 2.4 3.5 -2.5 2.4 -10.3 -10.5 -19.9 -13.3 -5.7 4.3 -2.8 -0.1 -9.1 -11.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.2 -10.9 -14.0 -14.3 -1.2 -1.2
changed? Next quarter -2.3 5.8 12.0 5.4 3.7 1.8 5.6 0.7 -0.5 -2.3 -18.5 -3.1 9.0 -9.2 18.9 -2.2 5.1 -2.2 23.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -1.6
5(c). How have spreads on overall unsecured lending Current quarter -10.5 -10.6 4.0 7.4 4.4 3.7 2.8 -6.9 -15.0 -21.8 -18.7 -4.9 10.1 -2.8 -0.1 -1.4 -5.4 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 -3.2 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -1.7
changed? Next quarter 0.0 6.2 12.6 5.6 5.7 -0.2 5.7 -3.6 -5.2 -7.5 -19.2 -2.3 15.3 -9.2 18.9 -2.4 5.2 8.9 25.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.2 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -2.0
Current quarter -5.5 3.0 6.0 -6.7 -0.2 -3.6 0.0 -3.1 -0.6 -14.3 0.0 3.8 11.5 -3.7 4.4 -2.5 2.9 10.2 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -3.4
5(d). How have unsecured credit card limits changed? Next quarter -0.6 0.0 -3.4 0.0 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 11.8 10.9 16.6 -11.6 21.5 2.8 6.2 13.6 5.5 -5.3 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -3.4
5(e). How has the minimum proportion of credit cards Current quarter 5.2 1.5 8.6 -2.9 12.8 -1.9 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.5 2.3 11.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.8 1.0 3.4 0.0 15.0 5.6 2.5 3.3 0.0 0.2 6.6 0.0
balances to be paid changed? Next quarter 10.4 3.3 14.8 0.6 -0.6 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 21.3 6.3 11.4 -6.1 4.9 5.0 9.4 20.9 11.6 10.5 11.6 2.5 7.0 5.6 0.0 6.6 0.0
Current quarter 11.2 3.2 6.4 -1.2 4.8 -0.5 2.0 5.1 12.9 10.9 13.6 2.3 11.6 3.0 3.4 4.7 7.0 6.4 2.4 12.9 -0.2 3.6 0.4 3.4 -13.6 -6.5 -6.6
5(f). How have maximum maturities on loans changed Next quarter 2.0 -1.7 9.9 1.2 14.2 1.9 2.0 6.1 20.2 13.8 6.5 2.3 16.7 3.1 6.6 8.7 -9.1 6.4 25.7 21.7 0.1 3.6 0.6 -2.2 -13.8 -6.5 -6.6
6. How has the availability of unsecured credit provided to Current quarter -25.6 -18.4 -16.2 -11.7 -8.3 -12.7 -2.3 -13.9 -18.6 -11.7 -26.6 -13.5 -33.1 -11.3 -34.3 -27.6 -19.2 -15.0 -4.7 -13.3 -12.6 2.4 -6.6 -12.5 0.0 -11.1 -14.9
households changed Next quarter -20.7 -20.0 -21.6 -7.0 -15.5 -10.6 -6.9 -9.7 -17.8 -13.0 -10.6 -9.2 -27.9 -14.5 -35.5 -32.7 -21.3 -11.0 -20.2 -18.3 -15.9 -9.1 -10.2 2.5 -4.2 0.5 -14.7
Factors contributing to changes in credit availability
Current quarter -36.1 -37.6 -16.1 -10.4 -9.9 -15.1 -33.2 -2.6 -5.2 -15.8 -42.2 -25.7 -45.8 -10.6 -38.6 -44.9 -23.9 -20.3 -13.8 -35.2 -12.0 -11.0 -10.7 -8.1 -2.5 8.8 -1.7
Next quarter -27.1 -28.5 -16.0 -9.9 -9.9 -7.9 -33.0 -8.4 -9.2 -11.7 -28.6 -13.4 -24.3 -10.2 -41.6 -43.3 -30.6 -0.2 -8.6 -27.2 -5.9 -5.0 -11.0 -8.9 -4.2 0.5 -1.5
Current quarter -41.0 -35.3 -23.9 -31.1 -17.0 -26.0 -25.3 -10.1 -22.5 -7.9 -25.9 -15.0 -27.1 -18.0 -5.8 -22.4 11.5 -11.5 -1.1 -9.4 -10.7 -20.5 -22.1 -12.5 -16.2 -17.4 -17.7
Next quarter -32.7 -30.4 -19.5 -18.3 -19.9 -23.4 -17.6 -17.7 -21.7 -4.4 -15.1 -20.4 -26.9 -15.4 -7.4 -29.6 -14.4 4.3 -21.4 -15.3 -10.9 -19.4 -10.9 5.8 -14.8 -5.6 -17.5
Current quarter -21.2 -24.7 -10.2 -6.2 2.6 -13.6 -19.2 -7.6 -13.8 -16.6 -39.6 -29.2 -32.0 -24.6 -29.2 -33.4 -14.0 -14.2 -17.3 -17.4 -16.5 -9.5 -15.2 -17.4 -10.3 -9.9 -5.5
Next quarter -19.2 -24.4 -8.6 -5.2 -4.4 -10.8 -21.7 -18.8 -14.9 -10.2 -26.2 -17.9 -27.9 -24.1 -30.1 -32.4 -19.2 16.9 -21.4 -18.2 -10.8 -12.0 -6.3 -11.3 -4.2 -2.8 -5.5
Current quarter -35.1 -44.6 -27.9 -25.6 -22.7 -27.6 -30.5 -22.8 -25.3 -11.2 -30.5 0.8 -24.1 -8.2 -19.0 -15.6 -19.2 -10.0 -5.4 -16.8 -14.7 -3.4 -7.6 -6.6 0.0 5.5 -5.5
Changing cost/ availability of funds
Next quarter -28.4 -34.7 -25.4 -17.7 -25.6 -23.5 -30.3 -13.6 -23.9 -13.0 -28.2 -9.2 -18.4 -8.3 -22.2 -20.4 -29.7 1.8 -28.2 -26.2 -15.0 -8.5 -3.1 -3.1 -4.2 -2.8 -5.5
7(a). How has the default rate on credit card loans to Current quarter -10.5 -29.7 -43.1 -26.5 -21.8 -21.2 -29.2 -13.4 18.3 1.6 -31.9 -10.1 5.2 -8.4 19.1 -13.3 1.6 0.6 12.6 11.1 3.4 7.4 16.2 -8.5 5.7 -6.8 -0.1
households changed? Next quarter -35.7 -23.8 -20.0 -20.5 -22.6 -27.3 -29.2 -5.8 3.5 -20.3 -29.9 -12.5 2.7 -12.2 -16.8 -32.5 -21.6 -21.2 -25.9 -17.7 -15.1 -9.4 -31.8 -15.5 -4.4 -8.1 -5.5
7(b). How has the default rate on overdraft/ personal Current quarter -19.2 -19.2 -27.5 -35.7 -4.2 -11.2 -24.2 -20.3 26.5 3.9 -18.8 3.1 12.9 1.3 12.8 -11.1 14.7 3.2 0.4 -5.2 -1.4 7.9 3.3 0.2 3.5 -4.1 1.1
loans to households changed? Next quarter -45.5 -24.4 -28.1 -20.3 -27.9 -28.3 -34.9 -9.2 3.3 -19.1 -40.6 -8.9 3.7 -7.0 -16.1 -25.3 -14.2 -13.1 -29.7 -16.7 -11.9 -16.4 -25.0 -18.3 -17.0 -7.5 -7.3
7(c). How has the default rate on total unsecured loans to Current quarter -10.9 -23.4 -30.5 -35.7 -7.4 -13.2 -21.7 -20.6 17.2 4.3 -18.8 -0.7 13.1 1.3 12.8 -1.0 3.4 14.4 13.4 -5.5 -1.4 0.7 14.1 0.2 3.0 -5.3 1.4
households changed? Next quarter -32.6 -25.9 -29.2 -20.3 -29.6 -28.3 -29.4 -8.8 3.1 -16.0 -40.6 -12.7 1.4 -6.7 -16.1 -3.6 -15.9 -13.1 -32.9 -26.7 -12.0 -16.4 -32.8 -18.3 -21.4 -9.7 -9.4
8(a). How have losses given default on credit card loans to Current quarter 0.0 -45.3 -29.6 -5.8 -6.2 -16.0 -33.8 -10.3 -0.4 -11.2 -13.9 6.5 15.6 1.7 13.6 1.2 0.7 3.7 19.6 -10.7 1.8 4.3 0.1 5.7 9.3 1.6 5.2
households changed? Next quarter -14.9 -37.5 -23.2 -24.9 -14.1 -27.3 -24.6 -2.0 -15.8 -11.4 -1.7 -14.0 -2.4 -12.2 -27.7 -8.1 -23.8 -14.5 -41.9 -28.6 -21.5 -8.9 -19.2 -6.2 -4.4 -3.1 -7.6
8(b). How have losses given default on overdraft/personal Current quarter -5.3 -34.3 -22.2 -22.5 -7.0 -17.4 -18.0 -10.0 0.2 -9.3 -23.2 -7.6 8.9 -3.5 -0.3 -7.6 -15.2 -1.8 2.0 -15.7 -7.9 -5.1 2.5 -3.7 6.1 7.7 -5.3
loans to households changed? Next quarter -21.4 -29.7 -28.5 -28.3 -20.1 -27.4 -19.6 -3.5 -14.9 -10.4 -12.2 -30.8 -8.7 -20.5 -7.5 -13.2 -34.6 -26.4 -26.4 -28.8 -24.8 -13.8 -28.6 -25.6 -22.2 -3.1 -9.1
8(c). How have losses given default on total unsecured Current quarter -5.3 -33.2 -24.9 -22.5 -7.4 -19.1 -18.0 -14.8 -2.4 -10.2 -34.6 -7.6 8.9 -3.5 -0.3 -8.3 -17.0 -2.0 2.3 -14.2 -7.3 -5.1 -5.1 -3.1 5.7 9.8 -6.9
loans to households changed? Next quarter -21.4 -31.7 -24.8 -27.3 -21.3 -28.5 -19.6 -7.7 -14.2 -6.3 -7.1 -25.7 -3.6 -13.6 -2.6 -9.2 -33.3 -24.0 -30.0 -25.4 -27.0 -13.8 -25.2 -21.5 -22.2 -3.9 -11.7
9(a). How has the average credit quality of new credit card Current quarter 1.0 30.0 -0.5 -15.8 21.9 19.8 21.6 22.0 8.4 2.2 26.7 6.2 10.2 9.2 5.8 11.5 26.9 11.4 18.7 12.4 -4.4 11.5 7.0 10.6 28.5 8.4 8.0
lending to households changed? Next quarter 0.8 25.1 -16.9 -9.2 16.6 26.9 5.3 24.4 16.4 14.1 13.2 12.3 20.7 6.9 2.8 9.7 -5.0 5.7 7.6 9.2 10.6 0.0 18.0 1.3 6.8 8.4 9.1
9(b). How has the average credit quality of new Current quarter 9.6 26.4 19.4 -2.1 13.8 19.3 20.6 20.9 1.9 0.6 9.9 13.5 2.2 -4.3 -2.8 -2.9 0.4 -0.1 1.2 10.1 -3.5 11.1 21.2 -2.1 -4.8 0.7 15.0
overdraft/personal lending to households changed? Next quarter 11.9 28.8 19.4 -6.0 20.2 22.8 10.0 22.1 15.5 13.6 1.0 13.0 9.8 -5.2 -1.1 -2.7 -8.9 0.0 1.0 3.7 7.4 2.5 12.7 11.5 8.0 7.2 10.4
9(c). How has the average credit quality of new total Current quarter 9.6 26.4 24.3 -2.2 15.9 19.4 23.8 20.4 -0.8 0.7 14.9 18.7 7.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 11.2 4.9 1.3 8.2 2.6 11.1 24.9 -2.1 8.3 0.9 19.4
unsecured lending to households changed? Next quarter 11.9 28.8 24.8 -6.0 26.1 22.9 10.0 18.9 14.7 15.0 1.3 18.1 15.1 1.3 3.6 2.1 13.2 5.0 1.2 8.3 13.6 8.4 8.6 11.5 8.0 17.4 13.4
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E.4.3: Credit Conditions Survey - Corporate Lending
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1(a). How has availability of credit provided to small Current quarter -34.3 -28.5 -36.1 -27.4 -40.1 -35.2 -35.7 -34.2 -32.4 -23.0 -14.1 25.0 -19.7 -5.2 15.2 -10.5 -20.1 -6.7 -17.2 -26.5 -15.9 -38.9 -31.4 -14.7 -40.9 -38.5 -49.2
businesses changed? Next quarter -46.3 -21.2 -39.6 -32.7 -45.9 -22.2 -40.1 -10.0 -20.8 -22.6 -13.1 41.6 -23.6 -10.3 13.0 -13.5 -14.5 -13.0 -22.5 -15.3 -27.6 -39.1 -19.4 -29.3 -37.6 -45.8 -57.8
1(b). How has availability of credit provided to medium Current quarter -31.2 -21.2 -28.5 -20.5 -28.7 -25.5 -31.7 -37.5 -28.9 -19.8 -10.0 14.9 -28.2 -3.4 9.9 -12.7 -10.4 -3.1 -28.6 -23.4 -21.8 -29.5 -26.4 -16.4 -40.1 -31.6 -38.5
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -51.2 -24.9 -31.9 -28.9 -26.7 -23.9 -30.1 -28.4 -23.2 -23.3 -8.9 29.2 -26.3 -10.2 9.3 -13.4 -9.0 -9.7 -18.1 -24.9 -29.5 -39.1 -20.2 -26.7 -27.6 -33.6 -50.7
1(c). How has availability of credit provided to large Current quarter -45.5 -38.9 -40.2 -40.1 -36.8 -45.4 -41.2 -41.7 -32.6 -20.1 -5.8 12.2 -26.0 -5.7 -15.1 -10.6 -12.1 0.6 -18.7 -10.1 -19.6 -24.9 -20.7 -18.2 -24.0 -25.7 -41.3
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -38.7 -31.1 -37.5 -30.8 -32.8 -21.4 -13.5 -21.2 -21.0 -16.7 -12.1 26.9 -29.2 -7.7 -14.4 -7.4 6.4 6.6 -19.7 -4.3 -23.0 -31.8 -5.9 -24.4 -24.6 -24.7 -46.2
1(d). How has availability of credit provided to OFCs Current quarter -13.6 -19.3 -13.2 -6.5 -18.1 -10.9 -2.8 -19.2 -10.6 -13.9 -16.5 4.0 -17.2 10.4 -13.5 0.6 5.5 6.3 -17.2 -13.8 -3.5 -11.3 -14.7 -6.9 -20.9 -13.9 -35.9
changed? Next quarter -19.9 -16.5 -23.5 3.1 -15.9 -1.4 2.2 13.9 -9.1 -11.1 -4.1 22.3 -21.1 5.8 -20.3 -2.7 23.5 13.6 -18.9 -15.3 -11.2 -23.7 -0.9 -16.5 -21.5 -11.2 -42.0
2(a). How has demand for credit cards lending from Current quarter 35.1 35.3 23.5 16.4 16.2 11.6 4.8 15.4 32.4 30.5 -15.9 3.9 22.7 17.2 1.0 8.3 1.7 -0.3 4.9 20.0 20.7 15.3 -8.1 17.2 8.7 10.6 20.2
SMALL BUSINESSES changed? Next quarter 45.4 29.0 39.1 27.1 13.2 15.3 15.5 3.1 27.6 27.2 -2.0 17.6 25.3 24.4 15.5 9.2 9.4 12.6 11.4 13.5 17.3 4.7 12.8 16.8 9.9 13.4 13.7
2(b). How has demand for overdraft/ personal loans Current quarter 43.0 41.8 37.4 31.4 50.5 42.8 29.1 34.4 25.3 42.2 26.7 24.2 32.7 21.8 26.8 21.1 18.4 22.0 29.5 31.9 35.9 21.9 28.9 36.8 36.7 48.3 42.4
from SMALL BUSINESSES changed? Next quarter 48.4 38.2 40.3 27.6 36.6 17.5 26.0 6.3 33.2 44.2 20.9 24.9 24.7 25.3 32.8 19.3 11.4 26.8 35.2 28.8 30.4 30.8 32.6 40.7 38.6 50.3 35.8
2(c). How has demand for secured lending from SMALL Current quarter 42.2 42.3 28.1 33.8 52.4 41.5 39.9 33.1 20.3 26.2 24.1 9.7 29.0 15.3 26.5 19.7 11.9 10.4 22.6 25.4 16.4 23.9 7.5 28.2 29.4 41.2 33.4
BUSINESSES changed? Next quarter 52.7 30.3 38.1 31.6 35.6 12.7 40.1 7.2 27.4 34.5 15.7 26.5 34.0 25.8 27.3 23.5 21.9 30.6 45.3 29.9 27.4 28.1 25.7 33.4 35.3 48.4 40.5
2(d). How has demand for lending from Medium PNFCs Current quarter 48.7 40.4 33.4 19.3 38.5 33.2 37.5 27.5 18.6 30.9 8.3 11.0 12.8 14.2 16.0 9.0 17.9 4.8 13.5 18.8 24.4 33.2 7.8 20.5 21.2 33.2 19.4
changed? Next quarter 62.3 39.0 42.9 24.5 24.2 9.9 33.8 2.9 34.4 23.3 5.6 17.4 21.0 9.2 13.6 16.6 15.9 13.6 16.9 20.8 29.5 21.5 25.0 21.5 14.4 36.5 23.0
2(e). How has demand for lending from Large PNFCs Current quarter 50.7 45.6 37.3 30.5 29.6 36.4 39.8 17.9 24.4 30.9 13.3 0.5 14.9 14.2 6.0 7.0 9.0 4.7 7.2 23.4 20.9 28.5 8.2 17.9 19.9 26.6 19.1
changed? Next quarter 50.4 30.5 33.7 40.3 22.5 15.1 22.8 3.8 34.9 22.2 20.5 11.1 14.4 8.8 5.4 15.1 -5.9 4.3 12.3 32.6 19.0 16.8 19.2 19.2 15.1 36.0 22.7
Current quarter 30.9 39.6 20.3 4.6 12.5 7.8 6.4 11.5 0.4 18.7 4.4 -17.8 -0.7 -9.5 0.9 -6.7 -3.9 -5.7 -0.5 2.1 -8.7 17.4 -8.8 16.2 9.3 8.0 9.1
2(f). How has demand for lending from OFCs changed? Next quarter 37.3 29.8 18.3 13.9 9.4 1.2 13.0 -7.9 27.3 18.1 4.9 4.6 9.4 9.2 6.8 14.1 -8.9 -2.3 9.3 15.0 4.3 9.1 8.9 15.3 13.9 19.2 20.8
3. What have been the main factors contributing to
changes in demand for lending?
Current quarter -6.2 -38.1 -22.9 -11.7 -12.4 -1.8 6.2 -15.3 -13.9 -8.2 -3.0 -58.7 7.2 -26.4 8.3 -40.6 -12.8 -23.5 -49.1 -20.8 -35.7 -15.7 -14.8 -26.6 -26.1 -27.7 -29.2
(a1 )Merger and acquisition
Next quarter 5.8 -20.3 -27.0 -13.1 4.5 -19.7 -10.1 -21.2 -6.9 0.0 -3.0 -8.8 7.5 0.0 -4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 -2.2 14.3 0.0 -3.8 -1.9
Current quarter 55.3 39.5 28.2 39.2 50.9 37.1 47.7 48.8 38.9 31.2 23.1 8.4 16.8 16.4 21.5 15.2 15.2 14.3 13.3 7.0 22.8 13.3 13.4 14.2 15.9 24.5 22.2
(a2 )Capital Investments
Next quarter 48.5 22.7 23.7 35.6 39.9 14.2 42.0 18.7 29.8 33.3 13.0 19.4 27.3 24.9 31.8 19.4 19.7 21.8 13.0 16.0 23.6 22.5 0.2 20.6 17.3 27.1 25.2
Current quarter 57.2 50.5 38.6 41.0 37.3 32.2 59.9 42.0 47.9 48.5 24.6 35.0 23.7 32.3 16.2 11.4 31.5 32.0 36.1 38.3 30.7 30.5 35.3 21.6 35.0 46.4 33.4
(a3) Inventory Finance
Next quarter 61.6 41.1 40.8 42.1 39.9 32.7 46.9 19.0 35.7 46.2 23.8 20.1 24.9 30.7 44.3 30.1 25.6 30.0 28.6 38.1 40.4 21.3 31.7 32.9 34.3 33.1 36.5
Current quarter 6.1 0.5 -16.2 -9.3 4.2 7.0 27.2 -12.6 -5.6 -7.1 -13.9 -7.0 -14.0 -20.4 -18.9 -9.1 0.6 -8.9 -11.8 -23.9 -22.7 -6.4 -24.8 -25.0 -40.4 -25.5 -28.4
(a4) Balance sheet restructuring
Next quarter 13.5 -2.7 -18.6 6.7 15.1 3.0 28.2 -11.1 14.4 8.1 -2.2 7.1 -8.6 -8.3 3.5 -1.1 -6.2 -8.9 -6.9 -13.0 -0.7 6.9 -16.3 -16.5 -25.2 -2.9 -19.7
Current quarter 17.9 1.1 -3.7 7.6 -16.1 1.8 10.3 7.1 10.0 6.4 -13.2 0.1 7.5 -10.0 -20.3 -12.1 -17.7 -7.2 -4.7 -12.5 -17.5 3.1 -10.5 -8.3 -3.6 -6.8 13.2
(a5) Commercial Real Estate
Next quarter 17.9 1.1 -3.7 7.6 -16.1 1.8 10.3 7.1 10.0 6.4 -13.2 0.1 7.5 -10.0 -20.3 -12.1 -17.7 -7.2 -4.7 -12.5 -17.5 3.1 -10.5 -8.3 -3.6 -6.8 13.2
4(a). How has the overall availability of credit to the Current quarter -36.9 -46.1 -40.6 -37.0 -26.2 -28.0 -43.1 -37.2 -22.3 -5.3 -8.7 -47.6 -8.0 -9.3 19.2 -29.5 -30.7 -27.1 -7.0 -27.3 -26.1 -38.3 -18.4 -23.6 0.1 3.4 -22.9
corporate sector changed? Next quarter -64.7 -49.0 -35.3 -32.2 -19.0 -23.5 -35.8 -13.1 -4.0 -11.7 -2.6 -29.4 -25.0 -14.6 13.7 -24.1 -31.7 -12.4 -15.1 -41.3 -17.0 -17.9 -28.9 -24.5 -2.3 -7.9 -19.4
Of which: Commercial real estate sector Current quarter -19.3 -0.6 3.8 -4.6 1.7 -2.5 -23.3 -9.6 16.3 -12.5 0.5 -40.5 8.8 -23.8 36.7 -24.9 -20.8 -22.5 -17.2 26.8 -11.4 3.9 14.2 -6.8 5.9 29.0 -4.8
Next quarter -28.3 -9.6 -8.7 -15.9 -3.8 -5.0 -24.5 23.4 -4.1 -15.3 8.5 -28.1 -11.7 -25.3 24.5 -22.6 -50.6 -6.9 7.5 25.9 -7.3 1.9 -0.4 -5.7 8.5 13.8 3.5
4(b). Factors contributing to changes in credit availability.
Current quarter -63.6 -53.0 -44.4 -32.8 -38.3 -37.9 -44.9 -25.3 -59.1 -65.0 -65.4 -65.8 -55.5 -58.2 -60.4 -54.9 -43.7 -40.5 -33.3 -37.1 -41.3 -37.1 -49.5 -28.9 -34.6 -39.2 -27.1
Next quarter -51.5 -28.1 -39.5 -23.5 -17.1 -23.6 -38.6 -15.1 -50.6 -55.9 -62.2 -57.0 -40.2 -47.1 -26.0 -48.2 -26.8 -17.0 -19.4 -42.9 -25.5 -23.7 -34.4 -21.8 -13.9 -22.5 -34.4
Current quarter -47.7 -40.2 -44.9 -29.4 -32.0 -30.2 -33.2 -25.6 -61.6 -54.5 -60.0 -56.4 -57.8 -50.7 -64.5 -40.1 -28.5 -37.7 -17.4 -30.8 -46.5 -50.3 -48.4 -16.9 -22.7 -29.2 -29.7
Changing sector specific risks
Next quarter -50.8 -26.6 -38.0 -26.0 -26.1 -29.6 -40.2 -25.4 -48.5 -55.5 -58.4 -31.6 -40.3 -44.3 -53.5 -32.0 -27.0 -12.1 -22.7 -43.6 -21.1 -33.5 -31.9 -24.8 -14.1 -16.4 -13.0
Current quarter -44.3 -37.2 -37.7 -32.6 -27.9 -27.7 -35.0 -19.2 -34.1 -24.1 -43.8 -32.3 -40.6 -37.4 -26.9 -23.6 -18.7 -27.3 -26.3 -19.4 -25.6 -28.3 -24.8 -30.0 -18.2 -41.7 -37.9
Next quarter -38.2 -30.9 -39.6 -20.7 -22.0 -22.4 -31.5 -9.1 -6.3 -23.7 -22.3 -28.4 -31.8 -20.9 -15.7 -25.7 -16.7 -15.2 -19.3 -22.7 -9.9 -26.3 -11.0 -0.7 -4.3 -18.1 -35.5
Current quarter 21.4 6.7 27.8 12.6 17.9 18.8 16.9 30.5 24.6 20.2 23.5 -23.4 -17.2 -17.0 -14.4 -4.9 -6.0 2.6 10.9 3.5 6.7 -6.9 -14.5 23.2 17.4 11.4 -3.7
Market pressures from capital markets
Next quarter 11.5 13.5 15.5 12.0 10.5 18.8 12.8 25.7 24.0 5.4 0.4 -26.2 -4.2 -14.3 -18.8 -15.0 2.5 12.7 -13.8 -6.7 1.6 -9.6 -9.7 6.5 11.1 -0.2 -22.2
Current quarter -41.7 -39.5 -28.6 -14.2 -10.1 -25.3 -23.1 -18.8 -40.8 -32.3 -47.2 -31.6 -36.8 -28.2 -33.9 -26.3 -27.1 -32.1 -12.1 -29.2 -25.5 -17.7 -23.7 -19.3 -18.3 -22.4 -17.9
Next quarter -40.9 -19.3 -27.8 -5.6 -10.5 -13.4 -27.0 -5.3 -31.0 -23.4 -53.1 -32.9 -31.2 -39.9 -24.2 -36.7 -30.6 -26.8 -22.9 -45.2 -28.2 -15.6 -24.2 -12.4 -11.9 -3.0 -36.2
Current quarter -36.5 -44.3 -40.6 -24.5 -13.9 -12.2 -35.0 -14.1 -17.4 -33.5 -36.7 -36.2 -25.0 -35.8 -36.0 -36.9 -33.4 -30.1 -18.1 -9.0 -9.8 -13.3 -17.5 -6.7 -5.3 -3.6 -0.8
Tight wholesale funding conditions
Next quarter -38.0 -30.1 -36.9 -17.2 -18.1 -18.3 -37.9 -4.5 -31.1 -27.3 -39.3 -29.8 -29.8 -39.9 -63.1 -38.0 -23.9 -30.1 -23.9 -25.5 -9.7 -8.1 -32.0 -8.5 -10.3 -21.1 -26.6
Current quarter -52.4 -44.2 -41.4 -40.3 -24.7 -39.7 -35.1 -15.9 -35.1 -41.9 -45.3 -41.9 -45.3 -38.1 -48.4 -42.3 -42.3 -29.6 -18.4 -16.6 -31.5 -32.5 -29.4 -16.5 -14.5 -2.8 -13.3
Changing liquidity conditions
Next quarter -53.7 -39.6 -42.1 -36.2 -35.3 -34.5 -38.9 -10.9 -38.4 -34.0 -37.6 -30.9 -32.7 -50.8 -53.1 -37.1 -33.4 -28.7 -21.9 -24.8 -12.6 -16.2 -34.4 -15.8 -12.9 -14.2 -32.0
4(c1 ). How have commercial property prices affected
credit availability to the commercial real estate sector? Current quarter -4.6 10.9 -7.9 -6.9 9.6 0.3 0.4 -5.0 -1.1 -3.4 -6.6 7.2 -13.8 10.1 7.6 -0.9 7.1 -0.7 -18.8 3.2 13.5 29.4 16.9 6.4 -3.9 17.8 20.1
Next quarter -5.3 11.6 -13.7 -17.2 3.4 6.7 -3.9 -1.1 -9.6 -15.5 -7.4 2.7 -13.8 0.7 7.2 -14.1 6.0 12.6 6.6 18.1 5.9 5.5 3.9 4.8 -4.7 14.9 7.8
4(c2 ). How have commercial property prices affected Current quarter -21.9 -7.1 -5.1 -20.7 -11.7 -23.1 -11.6 -19.4 -16.8 -14.9 -23.0 -14.3 -13.9 -5.7 -0.7 -0.7 17.0 -0.2 -6.6 -6.7 -14.1 -17.9 -15.9 -14.5 -2.5 10.3 -14.6
secured lending to PNFCs? Next quarter -22.1 -6.3 -6.8 -24.0 -11.8 -10.3 -13.5 -2.8 -12.3 -14.5 -13.1 -14.3 -13.9 -14.1 1.6 -6.1 19.8 17.1 -10.2 10.2 -13.3 -14.3 -13.2 -6.8 -9.4 -11.7 -9.9
5(a). How has the proportion of loan applications from Current quarter 37.3 29.3 24.5 24.6 41.3 24.3 34.5 27.4 23.3 7.6 -14.4 0.2 26.1 -12.7 -3.7 0.2 10.9 9.9 25.9 16.2 2.1 19.3 27.2 19.7 32.6 53.6 37.1
small businesses being approved changed? Next quarter 43.2 14.7 26.2 35.3 32.8 9.0 36.9 7.4 31.6 16.4 10.8 17.83265 23.9 -2.5 11.6 2.2 23.1 22.5 25.2 24.9 20.7 36.9 49.1 38.5 27.4 51.5 46.6
5(b). How has the proportion of loan applications from Current quarter 42.3 32.0 16.8 23.7 33.2 23.0 36.2 29.4 16.2 1.7 -0.4 -2.3 21.0 -6.9 -4.4 -4.5 -3.2 1.3 11.3 8.7 14.2 28.3 21.7 11.5 25.1 31.5 32.3
medium PNFCs being approved changed? Next quarter 48.8 21.3 19.0 24.2 21.2 -0.5 39.0 -19.4 10.6 5.8 2.4 3.5 12.4 -16.4 -2.1 2.4 -4.9 2.7 10.3 6.5 9.8 21.5 18.6 16.6 14.3 38.4 28.6
5(c). How has the proportion of loan applications from Current quarter 41.4 43.7 21.6 30.9 40.6 39.0 30.2 25.4 9.7 -3.6 -0.5 -6.3 15.1 -12.6 7.8 -5.8 -14.9 -2.4 10.4 13.5 14.6 23.5 5.2 9.8 15.9 23.8 27.0
large PNFCs being approved changed? Next quarter 43.0 29.8 12.1 26.5 27.1 10.7 37.3 -1.8 14.1 -1.3 -7.5 -6.5 7.1 -16.5 -1.3 -17.2 -23.6 -15.3 -6.2 7.6 12.9 21.3 10.9 10.7 8.3 26.1 28.3
E.4.3: Credit Conditions Survey - Corporate Lending
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
6(a1). How have spreads on loans to small businesses Current quarter 9.5 7.5 -18.7 -8.8 -6.5 1.3 -2.4 5.0 -5.2 -9.5 -21.2 -2.2 1.5 -9.0 -11.9 5.3 -8.5 -0.4 4.6 -4.7 -7.5 4.1 -2.2 4.3 -4.9 -0.1 4.2
changed? Next quarter 9.2 4.6 -3.1 -0.1 -5.4 0.4 -4.2 -3.8 1.6 -3.3 -3.1 -6.6 3.6 -11.9 -10.1 -7.5 1.5 1.8 0.0 -2.5 -1.8 -2.5 -0.1 -5.3 -0.2 -3.9 0.1
6(a2). How have fees/commissions on loans to small Current quarter 21.1 13.2 7.5 -5.5 -9.9 -4.1 0.0 -2.4 0.0 0.0 -21.2 -5.5 6.5 3.1 -2.4 4.1 0.0 0.4 -2.6 -11.8 0.2 4.1 -2.1 -2.9 2.6 1.0 4.3
businesses changed? Next quarter 12.9 12.1 3.8 0.3 -3.9 0.0 -1.8 -10.0 -6.5 -6.3 -1.4 -5.2 -0.3 -5.0 -3.8 -9.2 4.0 -0.9 -5.1 -9.8 -0.2 -2.5 0.0 -5.3 -0.2 -3.1 0.1
6(a3). How have collataral requirements for loans to Current quarter -7.8 -12.1 -10.1 -13.3 -20.5 -14.1 -0.8 -6.2 -11.0 -6.6 -18.9 -41.6 -10.7 -21.1 -32.0 -12.8 -16.1 -11.5 -18.4 -21.2 -30.4 -12.2 -13.9 -2.5 -17.7 -14.2 -6.5
small businesses changed? Next quarter -7.8 -16.3 -6.6 -2.2 -7.6 0.0 -1.8 -17.0 -6.7 -6.6 -9.1 -20.8 -10.4 -26.1 -34.6 -20.2 -20.0 -24.7 -2.9 -25.0 -17.8 -2.5 -3.2 -2.1 -6.4 -23.6 -2.2
6(a4). How have maximum credit lines for loans to small Current quarter -18.6 -16.8 -13.5 -11.1 -6.4 -0.1 -10.0 -18.4 -5.3 -7.0 -3.3 9.9 -5.0 7.7 -7.7 5.3 -2.8 -5.7 2.4 -0.4 -9.3 -7.0 -15.2 -6.0 -6.7 -5.2 -10.0
businesses changed? Next quarter -18.8 -9.6 -11.7 -8.2 -15.2 -7.1 -10.0 -13.2 -7.4 -7.5 -6.6 4.6 -4.0 7.6 -5.2 -1.2 -5.7 -7.6 11.3 3.6 -12.0 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 -6.4 -8.3 -7.8
6(a5). How have Loan convenants for loans to small Current quarter -8.1 -13.5 -13.3 -9.2 -14.6 -15.8 -2.4 -10.6 -4.0 -14.5 17.2 19.9 -18.3 -16.7 17.9 -14.1 -24.2 -15.1 -8.7 13.6 -23.9 -12.2 -10.7 -4.7 -13.6 0.5 -4.3
businesses changed? Next quarter -8.1 -16.3 -10.2 -3.0 -4.4 -0.4 -4.2 -8.4 -5.6 -5.7 -4.7 18.4 -14.7 -17.9 25.2 -19.6 -18.2 -15.1 -12.9 10.0 -17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -15.2 0.0
6(b1). How have spreads on loans to medium PNFCs Current quarter 13.4 8.2 -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 -7.1 0.0 -9.2 -3.6 -1.0 -25.3 -8.6 -0.3 -13.5 -12.2 -11.3 -6.0 -1.5 -8.1 -8.3 -7.3 0.6 -0.6 10.5 1.2 2.0 5.3
changed? Next quarter 0.7 1.7 0.5 1.5 4.7 4.5 -2.2 -9.1 -1.1 -2.5 -11.5 -8.5 -4.1 -12.2 -16.3 -19.3 -5.0 -0.3 -23.8 -6.3 -4.8 -6.0 -9.4 -2.9 -0.2 -4.1 1.1
6(b2). How have fees/commissions on loans to medium Current quarter 23.3 13.8 4.8 -4.5 -14.3 -10.7 0.0 -8.3 -8.6 -1.9 -11.2 -11.1 -3.8 -3.7 -3.6 -2.8 2.4 0.4 7.5 -5.0 0.2 6.8 2.1 5.7 5.3 3.0 7.5
PNFCs changed? Next quarter 7.5 12.1 1.0 0.3 4.6 4.7 0.0 -3.6 -2.6 -6.2 -11.8 -20.3 -15.5 1.3 -11.7 -4.5 1.8 -3.1 -11.7 -10.4 -10.2 -11.8 -7.2 -7.8 -9.1 -8.3 -6.6
6(b3). How have collataral requirements for loans Current quarter -4.2 -11.5 -9.8 -10.2 -11.0 -9.2 4.9 -13.6 -14.5 -10.8 -27.8 -23.7 -10.5 -21.8 -34.0 -18.1 -17.9 -13.1 -12.6 -14.2 -21.4 -13.0 -11.4 -19.8 -11.0 -3.7 -1.1
tomedium PNFCs changed? Next quarter -3.9 -16.6 -0.9 -1.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -14.0 -6.9 -8.9 -8.7 -20.2 -10.9 -21.8 -35.2 -23.2 -13.9 -25.7 -2.6 -21.5 -8.8 -6.0 -15.9 -5.2 -2.4 -11.0 1.1
6(b4). How have maximum credit lines for loans to Current quarter -8.4 -16.2 -10.7 -1.1 -14.6 -7.2 -1.5 -8.5 -3.5 -8.1 -6.3 15.5 -12.9 5.3 1.9 1.0 7.7 -2.6 5.0 10.9 -15.3 -10.6 -8.2 -16.3 -13.4 -8.4 -14.4
medium PNFCs changed? Next quarter -12.3 -9.6 -15.3 -2.5 -7.8 -3.8 -0.5 -7.2 -5.7 -5.4 -3.1 5.1 -4.3 6.4 2.2 6.2 5.1 -0.4 11.6 7.4 -4.8 -10.1 1.1 -5.8 -6.7 -4.1 1.1
6(b5). How have Loan convenants for loans to medium Current quarter -8.3 -11.7 -13.1 -1.8 -9.8 -9.3 -2.4 -4.2 -8.5 -17.0 9.0 31.6 -16.4 -19.9 21.8 -26.8 -11.6 -20.9 -21.7 14.8 -17.4 -22.5 -21.3 -16.0 -17.6 -8.9 -6.6
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -8.2 -16.6 -12.9 -1.7 -9.0 -1.0 -1.9 -5.4 -5.1 -6.4 -4.6 13.8 -14.2 -15.4 21.5 -23.3 -9.8 -18.6 -15.4 6.9 -4.0 -8.7 -8.6 -2.2 -2.4 -11.0 1.1
6(c1). How have spreads on loans to large PNFCs Current quarter 13.4 4.2 -5.8 5.2 6.9 7.1 0.0 -5.3 3.3 0.3 -10.7 -5.0 1.0 -6.3 -1.8 -5.7 -2.5 -1.5 -11.0 -15.6 -7.6 3.2 -4.4 9.7 3.6 0.0 6.3
changed? Next quarter 4.7 8.5 -1.1 1.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.5 -7.3 0.0 -1.1 -11.1 -3.5 1.2 -10.1 9.7 -12.0 1.5 -0.5 -6.8 -17.0 -4.9 -5.9 -6.5 -6.9 -2.4 -2.0 3.2
6(c2). How have fees/commissions on loans to large Current quarter 27.2 8.8 14.3 7.7 6.4 8.7 0.0 -2.4 -8.5 -8.1 -17.7 -17.8 1.6 -4.8 -8.2 -7.5 0.1 -5.5 -9.3 -19.2 -6.4 -2.5 -5.1 3.4 -6.4 -6.2 -2.3
PNFCs changed? Next quarter 15.0 12.1 3.8 -5.6 -5.4 -5.3 1.7 0.3 -2.1 0.0 -4.4 -5.9 1.3 -4.9 -8.5 -3.8 3.9 1.4 -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -2.5 0.0 -4.9 0.0 1.0 3.2
6(c3). How have collataral requirements for loans to large Current quarter 4.1 -9.6 -1.0 4.2 -1.4 -2.9 -1.4 -10.5 -8.3 -0.6 -24.5 -16.1 -12.2 -14.3 -22.1 -17.1 -15.8 -11.3 -12.7 -10.4 -5.7 -3.3 -13.6 -21.6 5.5 -10.9 -1.1
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -2.0 -5.7 -0.9 -2.5 -1.0 -0.9 -3.6 -10.7 -3.5 1.3 -3.6 -15.0 -5.0 -18.8 -34.0 -15.6 -13.8 -16.7 -8.5 -17.6 -5.7 -5.9 -9.2 -2.1 -5.0 -10.8 1.0
6(c4). How have maximum credit lines for loans tolarge Current quarter -16.4 -4.4 -21.9 -6.0 -11.1 -5.3 -0.2 -19.4 -5.0 1.1 0.4 -6.0 -1.2 6.2 2.7 11.0 1.4 13.2 8.7 4.4 -7.9 -9.6 4.4 -11.7 -4.7 1.1 -7.7
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -24.8 -8.1 -21.4 -7.5 -9.0 -0.4 -2.4 -1.6 -2.2 -2.5 1.7 7.3 -2.6 14.7 -3.8 7.7 2.5 9.4 4.0 -7.2 -7.7 -10.0 2.0 -7.1 -9.2 1.2 -6.6
6(c5). How have Loan convenants for loans to large Current quarter 0.0 -11.0 -13.1 -2.4 -9.2 -2.9 -1.0 -1.8 -8.0 -1.6 16.8 -15.5 -16.9 -9.6 -13.0 -19.2 -19.9 -13.2 -12.7 -7.0 -14.5 -8.8 -20.0 -11.8 -0.2 -10.0 1.0
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -6.1 -6.8 -9.1 -2.8 -8.5 -0.9 -3.6 -4.4 -5.6 -1.1 -3.3 13.3 -12.7 -5.2 20.1 -18.5 -9.8 -18.6 -13.0 -3.1 -20.9 -5.9 -9.2 -2.1 -2.4 -11.0 3.2
Current quarter 10.5 8.4 -14.8 5.7 8.6 9.3 0.0 0.1 4.8 0.8 -1.4 -5.9 1.5 -5.4 -13.2 -5.9 -6.0 -0.5 2.2 -8.3 -4.4 4.1 2.1 11.2 2.6 -0.2 3.2
6(d1). How have spreads on loans to OFCs changed? Next quarter 0.2 6.9 -9.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -8.4 0.0 -2.2 -13.8 -5.0 1.5 -12.2 -6.1 -10.3 4.0 -4.3 -0.9 -6.1 -1.6 -2.5 -2.4 -7.2 -2.4 -2.6 1.1
6(d2). How have fees/commissions on loans toOFCs Current quarter 16.1 14.4 8.7 1.3 -1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -3.4 -2.1 -1.5 -10.5 -2.5 3.2 -1.4 -1.5 6.6 1.4 -9.3 -4.5 0.2 4.1 2.1 3.7 2.6 -1.3 3.2
changed? Next quarter 1.0 13.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.4 -2.3 0.0 -6.1 -7.5 -2.5 -6.8 -4.0 -4.1 4.0 -2.4 3.3 -2.3 5.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 -5.1 -1.4 -3.3
6(d3). How have collataral requirements for loans to Current quarter -5.0 -5.8 -1.0 -9.6 -0.4 1.2 -1.6 -10.4 -4.0 -5.0 -8.1 -17.5 -7.9 -11.4 -19.2 -14.8 -14.9 -16.3 -6.7 -3.1 -7.0 -25.7 -26.3 -25.4 -13.4 -13.2 -1.1
OFCs changed? Next quarter -5.0 -1.2 -1.0 -2.9 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -8.9 -4.0 -4.4 -8.6 -14.6 -3.9 -18.2 -30.5 -15.3 -12.9 -7.8 -2.5 -3.1 -4.0 -18.7 -2.4 -2.3 -5.1 -13.7 -3.3
6(d4). How have maximum credit lines for loans to OFCs Current quarter -10.4 -2.8 -15.3 -2.2 -5.7 -1.7 -1.6 -4.3 -1.2 3.8 -0.3 -4.8 1.9 18.4 4.2 8.4 2.4 2.0 0.1 4.4 -2.1 -1.8 6.5 4.7 2.4 4.9 1.1
changed? Next quarter -5.8 2.0 -5.8 2.8 -4.4 0.0 -4.1 1.4 -2.5 -1.6 -2.0 -1.6 -2.3 8.2 2.0 2.0 -1.9 -3.4 -14.2 0.0 -7.8 -4.4 -4.9 -4.7 0.0 1.3 -1.1
6(d5). How have Loan convenants for loans toOFCs Current quarter -5.3 -5.8 0.4 -2.7 -4.7 -0.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.0 -5.1 -3.5 -14.3 -15.2 -8.6 -11.7 -18.8 -18.9 -16.9 -9.2 -7.0 -7.2 -14.6 -24.5 -5.5 -8.5 -8.9 1.1
changed? Next quarter -5.3 -1.2 -1.0 -3.2 -4.4 0.0 -4.1 -6.9 -5.8 -1.6 -4.0 -8.0 -15.8 -7.2 -19.2 -19.4 -16.9 -9.7 -16.7 -6.9 -4.0 -14.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 -13.5 -1.1
7(a). How has the default rate on loans to small Current quarter -18.3 -26.0 -13.0 -11.5 14.3 -11.8 -21.0 -7.4 4.7 5.7 -8.9 6.6 13.1 18.3 4.1 -9.8 2.1 -9.0 7.2 -1.6 -7.2 2.0 -9.9 -8.6 -15.4 -8.9 -14.8
businesses changed? Next quarter -28.9 -31.8 -18.0 -10.6 -2.7 1.8 -22.8 -14.0 -13.0 -6.9 -6.1 -1.2 11.2 15.5 7.2 -15.6 4.1 -14.5 -18.5 -1.6 -10.5 -5.0 -24.5 -10.0 -11.8 -4.1 -17.8
7(b) How has the default rate on loans to medium Current quarter -21.2 -15.6 -19.0 -21.6 -5.7 -21.6 -24.1 -11.3 -0.8 0.6 1.3 -1.2 12.6 9.6 12.9 -0.3 2.1 -7.4 -1.0 -9.2 -10.2 -12.7 -6.7 2.2 -3.7 -15.0 -22.8
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -30.6 -21.3 -23.6 -10.6 -2.7 1.8 -27.7 -14.0 -17.4 -5.5 -6.1 0.8 7.7 7.8 -1.5 -19.4 -5.4 -4.2 -18.1 -16.9 -12.1 -2.3 -20.3 -15.1 -14.4 -7.0 -20.0
7(c). How has the default rate on loans to large PNFCs Current quarter -21.2 -20.7 -19.2 -25.8 -21.7 -26.8 -23.0 -17.2 -21.6 -7.2 -1.1 -6.1 3.1 3.8 0.4 -1.0 -11.2 -7.3 -11.9 -10.0 -19.2 -11.8 -9.5 -13.1 -18.6 -16.6 -27.9
changed? Next quarter -34.6 -28.0 -20.1 -14.7 -12.4 -3.9 -25.8 -15.5 -10.4 -0.6 -2.0 -0.8 5.7 5.8 -2.7 -11.1 -26.8 -27.9 -7.7 -1.5 -11.9 1.2 -15.6 -17.2 -14.3 -4.9 -19.7
7(d). How has the default rate on loans to OFCs Current quarter -14.5 -22.6 -11.7 -16.9 -10.9 -13.9 -24.1 -10.3 -7.7 3.2 -6.0 3.3 11.7 1.9 1.2 -4.0 -20.7 -7.5 -6.3 -9.4 -10.2 -5.8 -6.9 0.1 -9.6 -5.7 -11.3
changed? Next quarter -34.3 -26.0 -20.6 -10.7 -12.9 -3.9 -27.7 -14.2 -6.1 -4.8 -3.4 0.5 7.8 2.5 2.5 -20.6 -21.5 -16.1 -6.6 -17.0 -13.6 -1.5 -21.9 -18.5 -12.0 -3.1 -8.5
8(a). How have losses given default on loans to small Current quarter -27.9 -2.9 -28.0 -16.1 -3.4 -5.3 -16.1 -9.4 -0.6 -1.1 -19.6 -2.3 17.0 15.4 5.2 -2.8 10.3 -2.2 14.8 -2.1 -2.8 -1.4 -7.4 -10.9 -3.3 -4.5 -2.1
businesses changed? Next quarter -43.6 -9.6 -42.7 -17.0 -14.2 -21.0 -14.2 -14.1 -8.6 -13.3 -10.2 -22.1 -0.1 -7.8 -5.1 -12.6 -22.7 -11.8 -22.0 -15.9 -20.9 -22.5 -23.9 -28.5 -25.5 -16.4 -20.5
8(b). How have losses given default on loans to medium Current quarter -34.4 -13.4 -28.0 -22.3 -15.0 -16.2 -15.3 -11.4 1.5 0.8 -9.6 -1.7 15.6 9.6 -3.8 -2.5 6.1 -2.2 5.4 -4.6 -2.9 -8.4 -12.1 -10.9 4.8 -6.8 -6.6
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -43.6 -20.0 -42.7 -23.3 -11.7 -18.0 -15.2 -13.4 -6.4 -13.2 -10.1 -22.3 -2.3 -7.0 -14.2 -12.9 -20.3 -20.7 -22.3 -20.1 -25.0 -28.3 -19.4 -28.5 -25.5 -16.4 -27.6
8(c). How have losses given default on loans to large Current quarter -32.9 -18.7 -22.3 -28.9 -19.1 -21.6 -14.4 -17.3 -11.5 -11.5 3.2 -9.4 8.0 1.4 -10.1 -10.2 -0.9 -8.2 -7.7 -12.9 -6.0 -16.5 -12.4 -13.9 -12.5 -14.0 -14.0
PNFCs changed? Next quarter -47.5 -27.0 -34.2 -25.7 -16.3 -18.7 -15.8 -7.5 -6.0 -10.9 -3.6 -14.3 4.2 -0.9 -10.8 -7.7 -16.3 -14.8 -25.5 -4.8 -10.7 -15.3 -12.0 -20.5 -16.2 -9.1 -19.9
8(d). How have losses given default on loans to OFCs Current quarter -16.9 -21.8 -16.7 -19.0 -24.3 -13.4 -9.3 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 2.8 13.9 8.3 -3.1 -3.9 1.3 -2.3 -1.0 -12.1 1.4 -7.3 -9.3 -8.4 -3.3 -3.7 -6.6
changed? Next quarter -33.8 -23.5 -28.2 -18.5 -14.7 -7.9 -11.5 -1.2 -6.1 -1.6 -5.1 -11.0 6.5 0.8 -10.6 -7.5 -16.8 -15.2 -5.4 -19.4 -6.1 -15.5 -12.1 -21.8 -16.4 -9.2 -20.1
9(a). Has there been a changed in average credit quality Current quarter 18.6 24.4 23.7 8.3 10.3 14.5 9.8 10.0 0.1 15.0 0.2 11.3 21.7 11.3 17.9 3.4 2.7 9.7 12.8 9.6 19.2 16.9 21.2 9.0 18.1 20.3 20.4
on newly aranged PNFCs borrowing facilities? Next quarter 22.9 17.0 29.3 15.1 13.7 2.1 12.1 7.2 6.0 9.8 15.2 16.8 13.8 8.1 5.5 4.4 -3.9 7.7 4.5 11.3 15.7 23.8 21.7 11.1 19.1 5.1 11.0
9(b). Has there been any change in target hold levels Current quarter 20.2 5.0 12.5 12.6 16.2 10.5 3.5 13.9 6.2 14.7 -2.0 14.4 19.7 8.3 15.4 8.4 6.4 7.9 10.7 15.5 13.0 22.0 15.8 3.1 9.0 16.1 17.0
associated with corporate lending? Next quarter 25.3 2.8 10.9 15.1 11.2 -4.6 7.4 15.0 9.7 12.1 7.8 13.7 17.5 3.1 5.7 2.3 1.9 5.9 6.5 10.8 13.0 14.8 17.7 12.3 11.4 9.2 7.6
Current quarter 15.8 10.5 2.5 11.1 11.5 6.7 0.7 5.0 5.5 10.7 15.5 -15.8 13.7 3.8 -1.1 8.7 -13.0 -2.4 -3.7 1.6 16.0 4.1 3.2 9.8 2.3 9.3 7.6
9(c). How have loan tenors on new corporate loans
changed? Next quarter 16.0 2.8 -0.3 13.3 3.7 -7.6 -0.2 9.8 2.5 10.7 4.7 -0.1 15.8 6.1 -10.6 0.2 -29.7 2.4 2.4 8.3 13.7 11.0 10.3 9.2 12.9 20.2 7.6
9(d). Has there been a change in draw down on Current quarter 17.7 24.4 16.3 2.4 7.3 5.0 10.3 6.5 -1.0 6.3 -12.5 -3.2 11.5 -10.7 1.6 -0.4 8.9 -3.8 4.2 -2.8 3.7 4.1 5.5 7.8 7.0 25.6 12.5
committed lines by PNFCs? Next quarter 18.2 17.8 20.7 11.2 2.3 -3.4 11.2 15.8 4.4 2.3 -0.1 0.1 9.8 -4.0 1.5 -3.4 -4.9 -3.8 0.0 1.5 6.1 15.3 7.4 18.3 16.5 16.7 0.5
Return to Menu
E.5.1: Purchasing Managers' Index - Manufacturing
Supplier Delivery
Stock of Finished
Production Level
Backlog of Work
Composite PMI
Raw Materials
Output Prices
Employment
New Orders
Input Prices
New Export
Quantity of
Purchases
Inventory
Month
Orders
Goods
Level
Time
Jul-14 55.2 53.0 46.4 46.9 52.9 43.6 50.6 54.2 53.3 46.4 47.2 51.3
Aug-14 49.7 51.2 49.9 45.9 52.2 40.8 48.6 52.7 50.8 45.4 48.6 49.7
Sep-14 57.4 57.6 46.4 49.3 55.7 45.4 49.3 52.9 55.1 46.9 49.8 54.0
Oct-14 55.1 55.3 46.2 46.8 52.4 45.9 49.7 56.7 57.1 50.5 51.7 51.9
Nov-14 55.1 56.9 45.1 47.2 51.7 46.0 53.3 60.9 56.0 50.0 47.6 52.2
Dec-14 51.2 51.1 49.7 46.8 48.4 44.6 53.6 56.3 51.4 47.5 51.1 49.8
Jan-15 50.4 49.3 51.3 51.1 49.3 47.7 48.7 55.6 52.5 48.8 45.5 50.2
Feb-15 57.4 54.7 43.8 50.0 56.4 50.1 54.0 60.9 58.0 50.7 53.7 53.0
Mar-15 52.1 48.9 47.8 46.4 47.1 38.1 50.1 56.4 48.7 44.5 46.5 48.9
Apr-15 56.9 54.1 42.7 48.9 53.9 43.0 50.2 54.4 53.0 48.3 48.7 52.0
May-15 53.6 49.7 44.6 48.0 48.0 36.9 51.6 59.0 50.5 44.9 45.6 49.4
Jun-15 51.5 50.8 42.0 48.5 53.3 40.0 49.2 56.7 53.0 45.3 49.3 49.5
Jul-15 49.7 46.2 43.5 48.4 52.6 40.1 47.9 55.0 51.7 45.2 45.3 47.8
Aug-15 51.0 50.1 43.1 44.8 52.4 37.6 49.0 53.1 50.2 43.7 46.1 48.4
Sep-15 54.9 52.1 46.8 47.1 49.0 40.3 47.5 52.8 51.0 42.5 43.2 50.7
Oct-15 52.0 49.3 42.7 48.4 53.1 39.8 49.1 53.8 48.3 45.6 46.8 49.2
Nov-15 55.4 52.9 47.3 45.5 52.2 38.7 46.2 52.8 51.0 46.0 46.9 51.2
Dec-15 55.4 52.7 45.2 47.5 52.7 38.0 48.6 56.5 54.5 45.1 46.4 51.2
Jan-16 49.3 46.2 48.4 46.0 45.8 38.3 52.6 56.7 49.9 44.2 46.3 47.2
Feb-16 45.0 43.0 52.8 45.0 44.7 39.2 53.0 57.0 42.8 38.5 44.4 45.5
Mar-16 46.6 43.0 50.6 45.5 47.1 37.8 56.4 60.9 41.6 41.2 43.8 45.9
Apr-16 42.7 41.8 52.2 42.0 43.0 36.3 63.9 67.8 43.6 42.6 41.6 43.7
May-16 47.9 42.7 50.2 45.7 43.9 38.7 59.6 68.4 42.7 37.0 40.1 45.8
Jun-16 40.2 37.0 55.6 42.2 39.4 35.3 61.4 70.0 39.0 40.2 36.0 41.9
Jul-16 43.0 42.4 51.7 43.8 41.4 38.5 60.8 64.2 41.6 41.9 39.0 44.1
Aug-16 40.5 37.5 57.4 40.4 40.0 31.2 64.1 69.8 39.9 38.3 38.3 42.1
Sep-16 40.9 38.7 55.6 41.2 40.9 26.3 66.5 74.0 42.8 37.1 42.4 42.5
Oct-16 42.3 40.3 57.7 42.2 42.9 37.3 65.2 71.8 43.5 39.2 39.9 44.1
Nov-16 46.9 45.1 53.2 40.6 46.1 39.6 65.7 71.2 48.1 45.2 42.0 46.0
Dec-16 57.6 51.8 47.9 48.6 51.6 37.2 70.4 73.2 52.7 45.3 48.5 52.0
Jan-17 51.3 47.9 48.5 45.3 46.3 33.1 67.9 71.4 48.4 43.6 46.9 48.2
Feb-17 45.2 44.0 48.7 41.7 44.8 38.4 69.9 70.9 47.7 43.2 43.9 44.6
Mar-17 50.8 45.6 51.3 43.6 49.1 38.5 65.0 68.3 50.1 43.6 45.1 47.7
Apr-17 58.5 50.1 47.5 46.6 50.6 37.7 65.1 69.2 45.1 40.0 46.4 51.1
May-17 58.7 50.5 49.9 50.7 50.8 37.6 61.3 68.4 46.1 42.3 51.8 52.5
Jun-17 58.2 51.0 50.3 51.1 52.3 32.6 62.7 66.6 46.2 43.9 49.1 52.9
Jul-17 59.3 52.7 51.3 51.8 53.6 37.5 60.4 64.1 48.0 42.1 48.5 54.1
Aug-17 57.4 52.3 52.0 51.5 54.9 36.7 58.8 64.9 49.0 47.9 51.6 53.6
Sep-17 58.8 53.5 55.4 52.8 56.4 30.4 58.2 65.7 49.4 51.9 50.4 55.3
Oct-17 58.4 52.8 55.5 53.1 56.5 35.5 55.4 62.7 49.6 50.8 50.0 55.0
Nov-17 59.3 54.3 56.0 53.7 57.1 37.6 54.0 64.3 48.1 50.0 48.8 55.9
Dec-17 63.2 60.0 57.4 53.9 61.1 40.2 54.3 63.4 53.6 45.7 47.4 59.3
Jan-18 59.6 58.3 56.8 53.3 57.7 35.1 55.0 63.3 49.1 42.9 45.4 57.3
Feb-18 57.8 55.6 57.0 53.9 58.1 42.0 55.9 65.4 54.3 37.6 53.3 56.3
Mar-18 59.1 56.1 56.6 53.3 59.4 36.4 52.1 61.1 54.1 42.1 48.7 56.7
Apr-18 58.6 55.8 57.4 55.0 59.5 37.6 51.3 62.4 52.9 41.4 51.1 56.9
May-18 58.8 54.9 57.5 55.2 58.1 40.1 53.9 61.8 50.8 38.5 55.8 56.5
Jun-18 59.2 56.2 56.5 55.4 57.7 37.6 53.8 61.9 47.6 38.0 51.1 57.0
Jul-18 59.0 55.8 56.8 55.0 57.4 39.4 52.3 60.7 51.1 40.7 51.3 56.8
Aug-18 59.3 56.9 55.9 55.5 57.1 39.7 50.1 59.3 50.1 43.1 50.7 57.1
Sep-18 58.4 55.3 56.1 54.9 55.9 37.1 52.4 57.5 49.4 42.2 50.5 56.2
Oct-18 58.9 56.8 56.4 54.8 56.2 39.9 51.2 56.7 50.9 39.6 51.5 56.8
Nov-18 59.9 58.1 56.9 55.4 58.7 41.2 51.9 57.8 52.2 40.0 53.8 57.9
Dec-18 63.6 62.3 58.4 57.0 63.2 42.1 51.6 61.3 56.1 41.7 50.6 61.1
Jan-19 59.3 58.9 58.3 56.4 59.9 41.4 52.5 62.2 52.5 42.1 52.3 58.5
Feb-19 57.5 56.9 58.2 56.3 56.2 39.7 53.7 60.9 52.1 44.1 55.4 57.1
Mar-19 58.3 56.7 58.4 56.9 57.1 47.9 62.3 57.6 51.8 47.6 60.7 57.4
Apr-19 58.8 57.2 58.1 57.0 57.5 37.4 52.4 60.2 57.3 44.5 54.4 57.7
May-19 59.1 56.9 58.4 57.3 56.8 37.7 52.3 62.2 51.5 40.8 51.5 57.8
Jun-19 59.3 55.9 58.7 57.5 55.0 38.0 52.4 62.7 52.1 43.8 51.1 57.4
Jul-19 58.9 57.2 57.5 57.3 56.2 41.1 52.2 59.5 52.5 41.8 51.5 57.6
Aug-19 58.7 57.1 58.3 57.1 58.7 39.9 50.3 57.0 51.2 42.4 52.1 57.9
Sep-19 58.5 57.2 58.4 56.6 58.1 39.0 51.9 58.8 50.7 43.9 53.5 57.7
Oct-19 59.3 57.9 58.6 56.8 58.6 40.0 52.5 58.4 53.7 42.5 53.1 58.2
Nov-19 60.1 59.4 58.7 57.7 60.6 41.0 53.1 59.3 55.8 41.4 53.1 59.3
Dec-19 61.8 61.5 60.5 58.0 62.4 39.1 51.9 59.2 57.0 45.5 52.8 60.8
Return to Menu
E.5.2: Purchasing Managers' Index - Non Manufacturing
Employment
New Exports
(sentiment)
New orders
Inventories
Input Price
Composite
Backlog of
Inventory
Business
Average
Imports
Activity
Orders
Month
Work
Level
PMI
Jul-14 58.9 55.9 50.2 55.2 54.0 46.2 44.0 47.3 47.8 55.0
Aug-14 60.6 59.8 58.3 57.0 56.1 47.0 46.1 46.4 48.1 58.9
Sep-14 57.1 57.5 49.9 54.3 52.8 46.2 40.7 45.2 47.6 54.7
Oct-14 59.6 59.4 53.9 56.4 53.3 46.4 40.8 44.9 43.8 57.3
Nov-14 62.5 63.6 57.9 54.6 57.3 49.6 45.2 47.5 48.1 59.6
Dec-14 56.2 56.0 51.4 51.5 54.5 45.6 43.6 46.5 43.8 53.8
Jan-15 48.8 50.4 51.2 51.9 48.8 43.2 41.1 44.3 47.0 50.6
Feb-15 54.2 54.7 52.5 54.5 54.1 46.0 43.0 44.6 46.1 54.0
Mar-15 49.7 51.1 45.6 48.0 49.8 46.5 39.9 44.2 40.2 48.6
Apr-15 58.2 56.8 49.1 50.8 51.5 46.6 41.1 44.5 43.0 53.7
May-15 52.9 53.1 49.7 51.1 51.3 44.1 37.2 39.1 44.3 51.7
Jun-15 51.5 50.3 46.4 52.0 48.5 44.4 36.9 40.4 42.7 50.1
Jul-15 50.4 51.4 48.6 49.5 50.3 43.8 39.1 39.2 44.0 50.0
Aug-15 52.3 52.4 48.0 50.1 50.7 43.0 39.8 38.3 44.0 50.7
Sep-15 52.1 52.3 47.0 49.1 48.7 44.5 42.9 41.4 45.9 50.1
Oct-15 54.2 54.1 49.3 50.1 49.9 43.9 40.3 42.4 45.2 51.9
Nov-15 52.9 51.6 45.6 48.5 51.8 42.8 37.7 39.0 41.8 49.6
Dec-15 55.9 56.4 50.0 51.5 54.7 47.0 41.9 42.7 47.2 53.4
Jan-16 46.2 46.4 47.0 47.9 57.3 44.3 36.2 39.0 41.6 46.9
Feb-16 43.7 42.0 44.5 47.1 53.6 39.6 37.5 36.6 43.6 44.3
Mar-16 46.3 44.7 43.9 46.5 58.5 43.8 34.3 35.0 41.1 45.4
Apr-16 44.2 42.2 43.3 47.6 62.2 43.1 31.8 33.1 39.8 44.3
May-16 44.3 41.3 44.6 46.9 62.9 38.1 33.2 35.0 40.3 44.3
Jun-16 40.2 39.6 42.5 47.1 60.7 39.6 33.2 34.7 38.5 42.3
Jul-16 42.8 42.3 41.9 45.8 60.4 38.6 30.0 32.7 38.0 43.2
Aug-16 43.6 42.0 41.4 47.7 60.8 39.4 32.9 34.2 39.4 43.7
Sep-16 39.9 40.0 40.3 43.9 63.1 39.6 28.6 30.2 37.9 41.0
Oct-16 43.0 42.7 41.5 46.4 65.3 40.9 32.8 33.8 38.7 43.4
Nov-16 43.0 42.3 40.2 45.5 66.8 42.4 30.8 34.0 41.1 42.8
Dec-16 48.2 46.9 43.8 49.5 64.0 41.5 33.8 35.5 41.6 47.1
Jan-17 50.6 49.4 45.6 52.0 65.6 43.6 32.5 36.1 45.5 49.4
Feb-17 45.4 44.9 42.6 44.9 65.4 42.9 33.4 34.5 38.7 44.5
Mar-17 49.8 46.4 44.0 48.0 62.1 42.7 33.1 34.5 40.6 47.1
Apr-17 53.3 50.5 45.5 48.6 63.1 41.6 29.2 33.2 41.1 49.5
May-17 56.2 53.2 50.2 51.4 62.7 45.3 31.6 34.1 43.6 52.7
Jun-17 57.0 54.6 53.4 51.8 58.6 40.5 30.3 33.5 42.7 54.2
Jul-17 56.8 55.1 54.0 51.9 58.1 42.9 32.0 36.8 41.5 54.4
Aug-17 56.1 53.5 54.4 52.3 54.5 42.8 34.5 34.8 42.0 54.1
Sep-17 56.8 55.4 54.7 52.9 56.9 42.2 31.2 35.9 44.2 54.9
Oct-17 57.5 55.7 54.4 53.4 56.4 41.4 29.6 35.4 38.9 55.3
Nov-17 59.4 58.4 54.6 58.0 55.7 43.6 28.8 33.3 40.6 57.6
Dec-17 67.4 62.2 55.7 62.9 56.1 44.6 34.6 39.1 40.3 62.1
Jan-18 61.3 58.2 55.1 59.5 56.9 41.3 31.0 35.1 42.8 58.5
Feb-18 55.6 53.7 55.3 59.8 52.8 41.2 34.7 39.1 40.3 56.1
Mar-18 58.7 55.8 55.1 59.2 50.3 42.9 39.0 38.5 44.1 57.2
Apr-18 58.8 56.4 55.3 59.5 50.3 41.5 34.2 34.9 45.0 57.5
May-18 58.7 55.9 55.6 59.2 50.8 40.6 36.4 38.4 46.2 57.3
Jun-18 59.1 56.4 55.9 58.5 52.2 44.0 33.2 40.1 42.4 57.5
Jul-18 59.6 56.1 56.2 59.1 52.1 43.1 42.1 40.5 45.0 57.7
Aug-18 59.3 56.9 56.7 58.9 50.8 43.3 40.1 40.3 44.8 58.0
Sep-18 58.1 55.8 55.4 56.8 50.2 41.5 40.3 41.3 45.7 56.5
Oct-18 58.3 56.4 55.7 57.6 50.7 42.8 39.7 42.2 45.5 57.0
Nov-18 60.4 57.5 56.2 59.6 52.6 42.0 38.7 39.4 45.9 58.4
Dec-18 65.2 63.1 57.9 62.8 52.4 42.7 42.0 41.3 45.8 62.3
Jan-19 61.7 60.2 57.7 60.6 52.2 40.1 38.1 40.4 45.5 60.1
Feb-19 59.7 58.6 57.3 58.2 50.3 38.8 36.2 42.2 44.6 58.4
Mar-19 57.8 58.9 57.8 59.5 50.5 40.3 39.4 38.7 44.2 58.5
Apr-19 58.4 59.0 58.7 58.5 52.1 43.5 38.8 40.8 45.0 58.7
May-19 59.2 58.6 58.5 59.3 51.3 42.3 39.8 43.2 44.5 58.9
Jun-19 58.2 59.2 58.3 58.8 52.1 40.3 43.0 45.3 46.1 58.6
Jul-19 57.6 60.1 58.0 58.9 51.7 41.4 42.0 43.9 46.6 58.7
Aug-19 58.2 59.6 57.8 59.8 51.2 45.1 44.1 45.2 48.1 58.8
Sep-19 57.2 58.4 58.0 58.5 51.9 45.5 42.4 45.7 48.7 58.0
Oct-19 57.9 58.5 57.1 59.2 52.2 42.9 40.4 41.7 45.1 58.2
Nov-19 60.0 60.7 58.4 61.5 54.6 43.6 41.6 41.9 45.8 60.1
Dec-19 62.6 61.9 60.8 63.1 56.0 42.5 43.2 41.8 43.5 62.1

E.1.1 E.1.1.1 E.1.1.2 E.1.1.3 E.1.1.4 E.1.1.5 E.1.1.6 E.2.1 E.2.1.1 E.2.1.2 E.2.1.3 E.2.1.4 E.2.1.5 E.2.1.6 E.3.1 E.4.1 E.4.2 E.4.3 E.5.1 E.5.2

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E.1.1 E.1.1.1 E.1.1.2 E.1.1.3 E.1.1.4 E.1.1.5 E.1.1.6 E.2.1 E.2.1.1 E.2.1.2 E.2.1.3 E.2.1.4 E.2.1.5 E.2.1.6 E.3.1 E.4.1 E.4.2 E.4.3 E.5.1 E.5.2

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E.1.1 Business Expectations Survey - National

E.1.1.1 Business Expectations Survey - North Central

E.1.1.2 Business Expectations Survey - North East

E.1.1.3 Business Expectations Survey - North West

E.1.1.4 Business Expectations Survey - South East

E.1.1.5 Business Expectations Survey – South South

E.1.1.6 Business Expectations Survey – South West

E.2.1 Consumer Expectations Survey - National

E.2.1.1 Consumer Expectations Survey - North Central

E.2.1.2 Consumer Expectations Survey - North East

E.2.1.3 Consumer Expectations Survey - North West

E.2.1.4 Consumer Expectations Survey – South East

E.2.1.5 Consumer Expectations Survey – South South

E.2.1.6 Consumer Expectations Survey – South West

E.3.1 Inflation Attitudes Survey

E.4.1 Credit Conditions Survey: Secured Lending

E.4.2 Credit Conditions Survey: Unsecured Lending

E.4.3 Credit Conditions Survey: Corporate Lending

E.5.1 Purchasing Managers' Index - Manufacturing

E.5.2 Purchasing Managers' Index - Non Manufacturing

18. Distribution of Respondent Firms by Sector

Financial Intermediation 18 11 19 19 12 13 18 26 15 52 47 43 36 43 32 38 129 119 113 130 139 155 147

22. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next Quarter

25. Drivers of macroeconomic Outlook by Size of Business: Current Quarter

2. Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector: Current Month

12. Employment Outlook Index on Own Operations by Sector: Next 2 Months

16. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Current Month

18. Business Expectation Index on Selected Economic Indicators: Next 2 Months

29.2 29.7 27.3 28.1 28.6 26.7 27.3 29.0 30.3

27.3 29.2 30.0 29.6 29.9 28.0 26.7 28.1 29.1

36.2 37.4 34.1 30.4 29.7 28.8 32.6 34.9 34.3

62.7 56.2 62.8 61.4 61.3 58.4 58.3 59.4 60.2

67.4 67.9 71.3 66.7 71.9 63.6 67.4 64.3 59.0

14.2 8.8 11.8 5.2 5.0 5.2 7.5 11.2 17.2

21.5 15.0 14.9 13.0 14.3 12.9 16.2 17.3 21.3

69.6 68.6 64.7 64.3 65.9 69.8 67.0 68.5 62.2

31.8 24.9 21.8 20.6 22.0 26.3 24.2 24.8 24.5

7.4 8.3 -1.3 5.4 17.6 7.1 6.8 9.3 15.0

55.5 56.4 57.3 56.5 56.5 56.8 57.6 57.8 59.1

26.1 28.5 27.3 24.8 27.5 21.7 23.8 25.5 26.7

41.4 40.1 41.9 37.9 38.4 36.0 36.7 37.6 37.5

11.43 11.29 11.33 11.55 11.60 11.70 11.52 11.77 11.69

4.7 3.9 3.8 6.0 8.3 4.6 4.1 3.4 2.7

15.1 20.5 22.9 24.3 20.4 17.5 30.1 25.0 23.4

51.8 52.4 54.5 48.6 48.9 48.1 53.6 58.1 51.3

30.4 28.5 30.4 31.7 32.4 31.0 28.7 30.4 33.2

68.0 63.7 65.3 66.3 68.9 63.4 63.3 61.8 62.6

14.0 14.6 15.3 13.8 14.3 15.6 15.2 14.8 15.3

59.0 56.9 59.0 57.9 60.3 59.9 60.1 60.0 59.0

1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050

8.9 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.8

4.6 3.0 3.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.8 5.8

10.3 8.3 7.1 7.0 7.4 9.1 8.3 8.4 8.3

2.1 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.7 4.6 3.7 3.6

7.3 7.7 8.3 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.6 7.8

17.9 16.2 17.9 18.4 19.5 18.6 17.2 18.2 19.6

32.5 33.4 32.6 33.7 33.7 34.7 34.1 33.9 33.7

Q. 4 What do you think of this year's Government anticipated inflation rate?

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