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Project Scheduling (Session 14 - 15)
Project Scheduling (Session 14 - 15)
Project Scheduling (Session 14 - 15)
CPM
PERT
PERT and CPM
• PERT and CPM are two well-known network techniques or models especially
useful for planning, scheduling and executing large time-bound projects which
involve careful co-ordination of a variety of complex and interrelated activities
and resources.
• PERT is the abbreviated form for Program Evaluation and Review Techniques and
CPM for Critical Path Method.
• Both the techniques were developed in U.S.A. during the late 1950s. PERT was
developed by US Navy Engineers to plan and control the huge Polaris Submarine
Program.
• CPM was developed by E.I. DuPont Nemours & Co., U.S.A. and the Univac Division
of Remington Rand Corporation in 1956 in connection with the periodic
overhauling and maintenance of chemical plants. It resulted in reducing the shut-
down period from 130 hours to 90 hours and saving hours and saving the
company $1 million.
Basic Terms
• Activity- A task or set of tasks required by the project. Activities use
resources and time. An activity is depicted by a single arrow ( -) on the
project network. The activity arrows are called arcs. The head of the arrow
shows the sequence or flow of activities. An activity can not begin until the
completion of its preceding activities. It is important the activities should
be well-defined so that beginning and end of each activity can be identified
clearly.
• Event-An identifiable state resulting from completion of one or more
activities. Events are usually represented in the project network by circles
(o). The event circles are called nodes. Therefore, the major difference
between activities and events is that activities represent the passage of
time whereas events are points in time. All activity arrows must begin and
end with event nodes
• Network- A diagram of activities and events.
Basic Terms Cont….
• Predecessor Activity: Activities that must be completed immediately
prior to the start of another activity are called predecessor activities.
• Successor Activity: Activities that cannot be started until one or more
of the other activities are completed, but immediately succeed them
are called successor activities.
• Concurrent Activity: Activities which can be accomplished
concurrently are known as concurrent activities. It may be pointed
out that an activity can be a predecessor or a successor to an event or
it may be concurrent with one or more of the other activities.
Basic Terms Cont….
• Dummy Activity: In most projects many activities can be performed
concurrently or simultaneously. It is possible that two activities could be
drawn by the same beginning and end events.
• In situations where two or more activities can be performed concurrently,
the concept of dummy activity is introduced to resolve this problem.
• There will be only one activity between two events. As a result of using the
dummy activity, other activities can be identified by unique end events.
• Dummy activities consume no time or resources. By convention, dummy
activities are represented by a dashed arrow on the project network.
Example 1
Activity Preceding Activity
Activity Duration(Days)
A --- 4
B --- 7
C --- 6
D A,B 5
E A,B 7
F C,D,E 6
G C,D,E 5
Example 2
A car manufacturing company has decided to redesign its fuel pump for
their new car model. This project involves several activities which are
listed in Table. First activity is that the engineering department must
evolve the design of fuel pump. Second, the marketing department
must develop the marketing strategy for its promotion. Third, a new
manufacturing process must be designed. Fourth, advertising media
must be selected. Fifth, an initial production run must be completed.
Finally, the pump must be released to the market.
Activity Description Preceding Activity
Activity Duration(Weeks)
A Evolve the design of fuel pump ___ 5
A --- 4
B --- 3
C A 2
D A 7
E B 6
F C 4
G D,E 2
FORWARD PASS (EARLIEST EXPECTED TIME)
• In forward pass, we compute the earliest time an event can be expected to
occur which depends upon the latest completion time of an activity
terminating at that point. Thus, the longest path, in terms of duration
times, is the earliest expected time for that event to occur.
• During the forward calculations, we need to compute the earliest expected
time (ET) for each of the events which can be calculated as follows :
• ETj = Max ( ETi + dij )
Where
• ETj = the earliest expected time of event j
• ETi = the earliest expected time that an activity can be started leading to event j
• dij = duration time of an activity from event i to event j
• Max = Maximum (of)
BACKWARD PASS (LATEST ALLOWABLE TIME)
• In backward pass, we compute the latest allowable time (LT). The LT for an event
is the latest time that the event can be delayed without delaying the completion
of the entire project. The procedure we use in computing LT is to start from the
end event of the network and proceeding backward to the starting event.
• The latest allowable completion time (LT) for a given event is calculated by
subtracting the duration times of all activities coming into the event. In cases,
where two or more activities start from an event, we must select the smaller of LT
values. The LT value for an event in a network can be calculated as follows :
• LTi = Min ( LTj - dij )
• Where
• LTi = the latest allowable time of event i
• LTj = the latest allowable time of event j towards which activity ( i, j ) is headed
• dij = duration time of an activity from event i to event j.
• Min = Minimum (of)
FLOAT(Slack)
• Time available for an activity in addition to its duration time.
• Total Float: This is the time by which an activity may be delayed or
extended without affecting the total project duration. This is
computed as follows :
• Total Float = Latest Finish- Earliest Finish
• TFij = LTj- ETi-tij
FLOAT Cont….
• Free Float: This is the time by which an activity may be delayed or
extended without delaying the start of any succeeding activity. This is
calculated as follows: FFij = ETj - ETi - tij
• Independent Float: This is the time by which an activity may be
delayed or extended without affecting the preceding or succeeding
activities in any way. This is obtained as follows: IFij = ETj- LTi-tij
Example 1
Activity Preceding Activity
Activity Duration(Days)
A --- 4
B --- 7
C --- 6
D A,B 5
E A,B 7
F C,D,E 6
G C,D,E 5
Earliest Time Latest Time Independent
Free Float
Normal Time Total Float Float
Activity Ej - Ei - tij
(Days) Lj-Ei-tij Ej- Li-tij
Ei Ei+ tij Lj-tij Lj
1-2 4 0 4 3 7 3 0 0
1-3 7 0 7 0 7 0 0 0
1-4 6 0 6 8 14 8 6 6
3-4 5 7 12 9 14 2 0 0
3-5 7 7 14 7 14 0 0 0
5-7 6 14 20 14 20 0 0 0
5-6 5 14 19 15 20 1 0 0
PERT
• PERT is more effective in handling
cases in which activity duration times
are uncertain. The PERT technique
makes the following basic
assumptions:
Activity times are statistically
independent and usually associated
with a 'beta‘ distribution.
There are enough activities involved in
the network that the totals of activity
times based on their means and
variances will be 'normally' distributed.
PERT Procedure
• The three time estimates are referred to as
(i) Optimistic time estimate denoted by to .
(ii) Most likely time estimate denoted by tm
(iii) Pessimistic time estimate denoted by tp
• we can compute mean or expected duration time ( te) and the variance of
duration ( σ ) and Z estimate as follows : t 4t t
o m p
te
6
t t
2
(
p o
) 2
6
T Te
z s
e
Example 4
Activit Immediate Estimated Duration(Days) • Draw the PERT Network and find
y Predecessor
the expected project completion
Optimistic Most Pessimistic
Likely
time.
A ---- 1 1 7 • What duration will have 95%
B ---- 1 4 7 confidence for project
C ---- 2 2 8
completion? (z = 1.645 for 95%)
D A 1 1 1
E B 2 5 14
F C 2 5 8
G D,E 3 6 15
H F,G 1 2 3
Solution
Activity to tm tp te σ2
A 1 1 7 2 1
B 1 4 7 4 1
C 2 2 8 3 1
D 1 1 1 1 0
E 2 5 14 6 4
F 2 5 8 5 1
G 3 6 15 7 4
H 1 2 3 2 0.11
• Critical Path : 1--3---5--6--7 i.e. B--E---G--H
• Expected Duration= 19Days
• Variance of Project Length σe2 = 1+4+4+0.11 = 9.11
• Hence σe = 3.02
Ts Te
z
e
T s 19
1 . 645
3 . 02
• Ts = 24 Days
Types of Resource Constraints
People
Materials
Equipment
Resource Allocation Methods
• Resource Levelling: The activities are critically sequenced subject to
the constraint of availability of resources and also the minimum
period of the project is re-determined.