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The Effects of Real Interest Rate, Money Supply and Unemployment To The Inflation Rate in The Philippines
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KONSTANT INOS SPANOS
THE EFFECTS OF REAL INTEREST RATE, MONEY SUPPLY AND
UNEMPLOYMENT TO THE INFLATION RATE IN THE PHILIPPINES.
An Empirical Paper
Presented to
The Faculty of the School of Economics
De La Salle University‐Manila
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements in ECONMET.
Submitted by:
Marajella P. Sebastian
11110848
Submitted to:
Dr. Cesar Rufino
September 6, 2013
Table of Contents
Introduction
Background of the Study
Statement of the Problem
Research Objectives
Scope and Limitations
Theoretical Framework
IS‐LM Model
The Real Wealth Effect
Operational Framework
Model Specification
Variable List
A‐Priori Expectations
Initial Explanation
Methodology
Data
Empirical Procedures
Empirical Testing and Analysis of Results
Summary Statistic
Initial Regression
Test for Multicollinearity: Variance Inflation Factors
Test for Autocorrelation
Breusch Godfrey
Durbin Watson d‐statistic
Test for Heteroskedasticity
Breusch Pagan
Koenker‐Bassett
White’s Test
Test for Omitted Variable Bias: Ramsey RESET
Conclusion
Bibliography
Introduction
A. Background of the Study
The most popular fixed‐weight price index is the consumer price
index (CPI) otherwise known as inflation. It was first used during the
World War I wherein it was used as a basis for adjusting shipbuilders’
wages, which was controlled by the government during the war.
Currently, the CPI is computed each month, using a bundle of goods
meant to depict the “market basket” or the “basket of goods”, wherein
each component is subject to a weighing system, purchased monthly by
a typical household.
In our world change is indeed inevitable or as they say the only
permanent occurrence that we experience. True enough that even our
good and services throughout history have also changed as the cost of
production, transportation, raw materials etc. have either decreased or
increased over time. Thus, affecting the cost of goods and services that
the society consumes. Through the consumer price index also known as
“headline inflation” we could determine the changes in the cost to the
average consumer of acquiring a “basket of goods” and services that
may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The
“basket of goods” is usually composed of food, beverages and tobacco,
clothing, housing and repairs, fuel, light and water, services and
miscellaneous. However, the CPI is only limited to the prices of
goods or similar items in its calculation.
There are two types of inflation: headline inflation or CPI and core
inflation. Core inflation is a widely used measure of the underlying trend
or movement in the average consumer prices. It is often used as a
complementary indicator to what is known as “headline” or CPI inflation
inflation refers to the rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI), a
measure of the average price of a standard “basket” of goods and
services consumed by a typical family. Thus, headline inflation aims to
capture the changes in the cost of living based on the movements of the
prices of items in the “basket of goods” and services consumed by the
typical Filipino household. In this study, we would be using headline
inflation or the inflation in terms of consumer prices as our basis.
B. Statement of the Problem
rate and money supply (M3) have actual affect on the annual
inflation rate? Are all the macroeconomic variables significant? Is
the economic model free from economic problems?
C. Research Objective
unemployment rates (Un) and money supply (M3) to the inflation rates
(i). Since the inflation rate is the rise in the general level price of goods
and services in an economy over a period of time, we could say that real
interest rates/lending interest rates (RIR) adjusts due to inflation as
measured by the GDP deflator while money supply (M3) in circulation
tends to increases in response to inflation as supported by the Quantity
Theory of Money and the changes in unemployment (Un) also affects
inflation because of wages. With all that said, these regressors indeed
intuitively affects the inflation rate. However, this paper aims to prove
these relationships through statistical methods.
The gathered data and results from this paper would, furthermore,
help in determining the weights of these factors to the inflation rate in
the Philippines and aid in the policy making, monetary and fiscal, and
which is of course favorable to the Filipino society especially now where
the cost of living rises and our basic needs and wants must be sustained
at an affordable price so that we may live a convenient life.
D. Scope and Limitations
Since we would like to determine the factors affecting the inflation
the scope of this research paper is in accordance to the Philippine
setting but this does not restrict that our findings may or may not also
be applicable to other countries. The data and economic indicators
gathered to create this paper are merely applicable or observed in the
Philippines. The type of data used is time series that is data collected
over discrete intervals of time. (Hill, Griffiths and Lim, 2011). Highly
reliable and diverse database websites such as World Bank and Index
Mundi were utilized for the collection of 31 distinct observations (from
1976 to 2006) for the following regressors. All observations are of
consecutive, annual form.
Furthermore, the statistical methods and techniques that would be
used to discuss this research paper are only those discussed in
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). We must take into account that the OLS
may not be the best estimator to show the relation of the inflation rate
and the selected distinct regressors chosen by the researcher; there are
many other methods of estimation that are more advanced and accurate
than the OLS. Also, other independent factors may also affect the
inflation rates other than those of selected by the researcher.
Theoretical Framework
A. IS‐LM Model
The IS‐LM framework demonstrates the equilibrium in both the
goods and money market. This shows how interest rate is inversely
related to the output of the country (GDP) that then affects the LM or
the money market wherein money demand is equal to money supply. In
relation to inflation, interest rates rise to control excessive or
uncontrollable inflation and money supply, as known to economists, is
an important instrument for inflation.
B. The Phillips Curve
An economic concept developed by A. W. Phillips stating that
Thus, we could imply that the Phillips Curve concludes that there
in inflation rate is not solely dependent on unemployment rate but
rather how far the unemployment is from the natural rate of
(Sauler, 2013). This theory was also proven by Robert Solow and
Paul Samuelson in the 1960s but was later on criticized by Milton
Friedman and Edmund Phelps stating that the Phillips Curve only
applies in the short run relation of unemployment and inflation rates.
C. Quantity Theory of Money
M×V = P×T
The Quantity Theory of Money could be quantified by the Fisher
level and T represents the volume of transactions in the economy.
This theory proposes a positive relationship between the growth rate
of money and the inflation rate of an economy. Based to how the
formula is derived, holding the transaction volume and velocity of
money constant, any increases in the money supply will yield a
proportional increase in the average price level or inflation. To
further strengthen the argument, the theory states that there will
rate of money if the difference between the growth rate of money
and the growth rate of output is positive, negative if otherwise, and
zero if both respective growth rates will then just cancel each other’s
out (Rivera, 2012).
Operational Framework
A. Model Specification
� = �� + �� ��� + �� �� + �� �� + �
B. Variable List
formula is generally used.
Money Supply (M3) Liquid liabilities are also known as
and electronic currency (M1), plus
(M2), plus travelers checks, foreign
mutual funds or market funds held
by residents.
jobs.
C. A‐priori Expectations
Expectation
becomes increasing
uncontrollable
Tobin (1965), Fischer (1979),
inflation expectations.
between headline inflation or
increase in the money supply,
tend to increase inflation as
core PPI, commodity PPI, and
personal consumption
expenditures as a measure of
money supply, as explanatory
variables.
Un �� < � As stated by the Phillips
phenomenon wherein
employees would rather have
having no job at all and when
then there will be a fall in the
inflation rate.
D. Initial Explanation
To explain the model, the betas (�! ) in the model, except for
beta 1 (�! ), show the respective slopes or the respective marginal
contribution of the each of the policy/exogenous variables with respect
to the endogenous variable, which is the inflation rate. The beta 1 (�! )
signifies the intercept of the model, it can also be assumed as the initial
inflation rate when all other betas ( �! ) are zero. However, such
interpretation of the intercept will depend on whether it will be counter
intuitive or not. For now, we could not draw any inferences of it being
counter intuitive or not since we have yet to perform numerous tests.
The signs are positive because the determinants are assumed to have a
direct relationship with the inflation rate. On the other hand, the
stochastic error term (�) signifies all the residual errors in the model.
By minimizing the Ordinary Least Squares Method, we could get
accurate and precise estimates.
known as the expected value of our CPI, we only take into account the
eliminated. Moreover, the PRF is only achieved by consensus that is of
course not feasible since it requires so much time and effort to gather
individual surveys across a large population. Alternatively, we seek the
Sample Regressor Function (SRF), which can be the representative of
the PRF, and we can now perform the OLS method.
Methodology
A. Data
Unemployment
Inflation as %
Year IR as % M3 as % GDP as %
B. Empirical Procedures
In this study, 2 major softwares will be used (Gretl and Stata) to
test the overall relation and significance of the model and its
endogenous variables. Two softwares will be used to regress and
crosscheck the findings obtained by the two softwares. Thereof, after
we regress the model we then interpret the model accordingly.
utilized in determining the present of high correlation among the
of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) such as the violation of
problems in the model have been recognized we then make
corrective measure to make our model significant and accurate, if
applicable.
Finally, the Gretl and Stata softwares would be used to
determine the misspecifications and omitted variable bias and other
errors in our model that would make it misleading and biased.
Empirical Testing and Analysis of Results
A. Summary Statistics
The data above is the summary statistic performed using Gretl and
Stata. Since an econometric model is an economic model in empirically
testable form, we could use the summary statistic information to aid us
in checking for any violations in our model. The data above shows the 4
moments: (1) first moment is the measure of central tendencies, which
consists of the mean, median and mode but in the summary it is
represented only by the mean and median (2) second moment are the
measure of variability or dispersion, which is represented by the
standard deviation and variance (3) third moment is the measure of
symmetry, which is represented by skewness and (4) fourth moment is
the measure of tail density or peakedness. The mean is the total
average of all the values per variable and the median is the middle value
of specific variable. The standard deviation and variance measures how
the values of the variables are spread out relative to the mean.
B. Initial Regression
From the OLS regression above from Gretl and Stata softwares, we
could transform our model specification to an estimated model:
insignificant given their respective p‐values are all greater than 0.05,
except money supply (M3). The r squared is 0.247052, which is
relatively close to 1; thus, our model has a reasonable explanatory
power. The r squared measures the variability bearing of the dependent
variables to the endogenous variable and it is the coefficient of multiple
statistic is 0.05 meaning that we have a 95% confident that are model is
correct and significant. However, we would still have to prove the
assumptions of the Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) and the
Ordinary Least Squares since, as stated by Guass‐Markov Theorem, the
OLS would only be the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) or
Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator (MVUE) if and only if the
assumptions of the CLRM were met. Such validation of assumptions
would help us avoid a breakdown of inference, and that is why it is
multicollinearity and the omitted/irrelevant variable bias assumptions.
In order for the model to be significant, the regressors should also have
sufficient variability since the standard errors are dependent on how
the regressors vary.
Furthermore, the results above prove that all of our a‐priori
explanations to this later on.
Test for Multicollinearity
multicollinearity and we imply that, indeed, there will be huge variances
among our regressors. Based from the results above, we got a relatively
small VIF but although it has reached the minimum required of 1. Thus,
our regressors have a tolerable multicollinearity and the researcher
could leave the model as it is. Corrective measures are only needed
when the mean VIF is greater than or equal to 10 for this signifies
necessary to get high variance and high standard error because a high
VIF can be balance by a low variance (Gujarati and Porter, 2009).
Furthermore, we should look more closely to the test of autocorrelation
since it is more endemic in time series data.
Test for Autocorrelation
To test autocorrelation, we could opt for 2 approaches, which is
informal graphical test and formal statistical tests. The second approach
is the formal statistical test, which namely consists of the Bruesch
Godfrey test and the Durbin Watson test. Autocorrelation is a violation
of critical assumption because an autocorrelation would imply that OLS
is will not the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). If the OLS is BLUE
but there exists autocorrelation, this refers to the Generalized Least
Square (GLS). Autocorrelation is endemic in time series data due to (1)
inertia or the sluggishness of economic magnitude or variable, (2)
Specification bias due to omitted variable bias and wrong specification
bias, (3) wrong lag or delays, (4) data manipulation, (5) non‐stationarity
of variables, and (6) wrong transformation of variables.
i. Breusch Godfrey
The Breusch Godfrey test allows nonstochastic regressors, higher‐
averages of white noise error terms (Gujarati and Porter). The results
show that our model is free from the endemic autocorrelation in time
series since the p‐values are all greater than 0.05. Thus, OLS is BLUE.
ii. Durbin Watson
from the p‐value obtained by the Durbin Watson test which is > 0.05.
Hence, there has been no breakdown of inference and our OLS is BLUE.
Test for Heteroskedasticity
i. Breusch Pagan
Clearly as shown by the results, there exists heteroskedasticity in
our model and the criticical assumption of homoscedasticity is violated
since our p‐value is <0.05. With this, we could use some corrective
command. However, we need not to focus on this since our data is time
critical to our model.
ii. Koenker‐Bassett
The test above shows that there exists no heteroskedasticity since
the p‐value is 0.319886, which is higher than the critical region (0.05).
Thus, our model is homoscedastic. Surprisingly, the results of the
Breusch Pagan and Koenker Basset are not parallel to each other this is
because the Koenker Basset test is found to perform well in terms of
both size and power than the Breusch Pagan test (Cai, Hurvich and Tsai,
2012). Thus, we could conclude that the latter test is more accurate and
significant and our model is proven to be homoscedastic. Furthermore,
the Breusch Pagan and Breusch Godfrey are tests for heteroskedasticity
where the squared OLS residuals are regressed on the explanatory
variables in the model (Wooldridge, 2006). Thus, we could also refer to
the previous test of Breusch Godfrey wherein our p‐values were all >
0.05 and our model is indeed homoscedastic and free from the violation
of heteroskedcasticity. To further show that our model is free from
heteroskedasticity, we may opt for the following tests: Park’s Test,
Wooldridge Test. White’s Test is considered as the most powerful
among all the tests so it is essential to be conducted.
iii. White’s Test
iv. White’s Test (squares only)
Basing from the results of both White’s Test, we got the respective
p‐values of 0.082524 and 0.140424 which are both > 0.05. Thus, our
model does not violate the violation of heteroskedasticity.
Test for Omitted Variable Bias
Test) that is the test used to check for omitted variable bias, which if
committed would make our OLS biased and inconsistent. Therefore, OLS
is not BLUE. Since our p‐value is 0.26, which is greater than the level of
significance of 0.05, its is safe to say that our model is free from biasness
since the researcher does not have evidence to reject the null
hypothesis that states that the model has no omitted variable bias.
Conclusion
Based from our initial regression, unemployment was proven to be
negative relation between inflation. Conversely, as previously discussed
our apriori expectation was based on the Phillips Curve which is only
effective in the short‐run as criticized by Milton Friedman and Edmund
Phelps. According to Haug and King (2009), a there is positive
relationship between unemployment and inflation for bands longer than
the typical business cycle. Thus, unemployment and inflation may have
a direct relationship. The only regressor that was proved to be
significant was money supply but it is counter‐intuitive since we
assumed it to be positive. However, the theory states that there will
exist a positive relationship between inflation rate and the growth rate
of money if the difference between the growth rate of money and the
growth rate of output is positive, negative if otherwise, and zero if both
respective growth rates will then just cancel each other’s out (Rivera,
2012). Thus, money supply and inflation may be negative. Also, the real
interest rate was proven to be counter‐intuitive since it does not fit our
apriori expectation that it is positive. However, there has been a study
by Kandel, Ofer and Sarig, which concluded that real interest rates and
inflation could also be negatively related. To support this, the
Alternative Theories of Mundell (1963), Tobin (1965), Fischer (1979),
Darby (1975), Feldstein (1976) and Stulz (1986) imply that real interest
earlier.
Overall, it would be safe to say that our OLS is BLUE since our
regressors have passed all the tests for violations of heteroskedasticity
and most especially autocorrelation which is more endemic in time
series data.
Bibliography
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantity_theory_of_money.asp
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. New
York: McGraw‐ Hill/Irwin.
n‐ consequences‐of‐unemployment
Rivera, J. (2012, November).
Sauler, R. (2013, February)
Kandel, S., Sarig, A., & Ofer, O. (1996). Real Interest Rates and
Inflation. The Journal of Finance, 1, 22.
Kandel, S., Sarig, A., & Ofer, O. (1996). Real Interest Rates and Inflation.
The Journal of Finance, 1, 22.
Approach, Third Edition. South‐Western College Publishing.