Module 5

Population Growth
● World population has followed an ‘S’ shaped pattern of growth over time; in antiquity,
population growth was very slow.
● World population growth accelerated from the 18th century through to the 19th century
due to advances in medicine and it continues to grow strongly today.
● The strong growth in world population in more recent times (beginning from the
mid-1900s) is mainly due to high growth rates in developing countries
● Asian countries contribute significantly to the sustained boom in the world’s population
today
● (World Population Review):

● According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) population growth rate indicates
how fast a population increases or decreases as a result of the interplay of births,
deaths, and migration during a given period of time. Where the population is closed,
meaning no migration, the population growth rate is the same as the rate of natural
increase.
● As an example, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths
during a specified period of time. The three methods for computing the rate of growth

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 based on the assumption with respect to the change are: arithmetic change, geometric
change and exponential change

Some Basic Concepts

● Among Asian economies, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan

and the Philippines stand out as having the highest population growth rates in
2020 (see the World Population Review table)
● Age distributions show what proportion of the population is in certain age
categories:
● Asia and Latin America have very similar age distributions. Europe and North
America also have similar age distributions
● In Asia and Latin America, proportion under 15 is about one third of the
population. This group is much smaller in Europe and North America – around
one fifth.
● Life expectancy rate represents the average number of years remaining to a
person who survives to the beginning of a given age or age interval x.
● Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born
alive to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass
through her childbearing years conforming to the age specific fertility rates of a
given time period.
● Infant mortality rate (IMR) is the probability of dying between birth and age one,
expressed as the number of infant deaths or deaths occurring before reaching 12
months of life in a given period per 1,000 live births.
● TFR and population growth rates are positively correlated
● Life expectancy and TFR are generally inversely related
● Life expectancy rate (LER) – Male = 66.2 years; Female = 72.6
● Total fertility rate (TFR) – as of 2016 = 2.92 births/woman
● Infant mortality rate (IMR) – 15.16 / 1000 births

Theory of Demographic Transition

- Stage 1: High birth and death rates
- Stage 2: High birth rates and falling death rates
- Stage 3: Low birth and death rates

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*Thus, population growth is high in the second stage, and lower in the first and third stages

Economics of Fertility
● In a traditional supply-demand framework, the decision to have a child is treated like the
decision to purchase any good.
● the demand for children will increase if the cost of children declines, and fall if the cost of
children goes up.
● The cost of children includes all opportunity costs, that is, all direct costs.
● In Becker’s microeconomic model of fertility, demand for children are positively related to
household income and wealth; and negatively related to the value or price of children
relative to other goods.
● A substitution effect occurs between the quality and quantity of children, where an
increase in the price of one will cause an increase in the demand for the other.
● In poorer countries, the opportunity costs are deemed low and the perceived benefits
higher. This follows from the fact that children stay in school for less number of years,
and often start to earn money or help in the farm at very young ages.
● In richer countries, the anticipated cost of having children is higher since more education
is the norm and children are often not allowed to work until age 15, at the earliest.

Policies to Reduce Population Growth in Asia

● Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka devoted most resources to contraceptive use –
supplying information and subsidizing the cost.
● Other countries, such as India and PRC, used incentive payments.
● Remark: In the Philippines, religious beliefs have constrained the use of contraceptives.
As a result, population growth have remained relatively rapid.
● Women’s education has also played an important role in lowering fertility
● Coercion has been used in India and PRC.
● One child per family policy has been in force in China for over the past 3 decades.
● Families with more than one child face steep penalties, including loss of government
subsidies and loss of salary.
● Policy raises ethical considerations, particularly since there is a preference for boys.
● This has led to infanticide and abortion of girl infants and fetuses.
● Preference for males in India has led to similar problems

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Prospects for the Future
● The “demographic dividend” is a term coined to describe the demographic transition
when the working population is growing faster than the child and adult populations
combined.
● This means that the dependency rate (non- working population over working population)
is falling.
● This demographic dividend trend is most evident in East Asia, Thailand and Indonesia.
● It is not as strong in South Asia where population growth is still high.
● The demographic dividend is accentuated by an increase in the labor force participation
among women
● As populations age, the demographic dividend dissipates
● Population age structures will begin to look like an inverted triangle
● This will take some time – Europe is still much “older” than Asia with the exception of
Japan

Issues in Population Growth & Control

● Many questions to be answered such as “Which population control programs are most
effective?” and “How should resources be allocated to different programs?”
● Although we know that raising women’s educational attainment works to reduce fertility
and that some family planning interventions work, a better data base for analyzing these
population issues needs to be developed.

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