OUENZAR

Tesla Analysis SOUFIANE

2020
 Summary

1. Electric Cars Data and Perspectives

2. Electric Cars by Region and Country

3. Tesla Financial Statement

4. Tesla Vs Others

5. Technical analysis

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 Electric Cars Data and
Perspectives

▪ Electric Cars Market

▪ Electric Cars Producers
▪ Charging Battery

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 Electric Cars Market

▪ By 2040 Electric cars will outsell gasoline and diesel cars in

order of 48.8 Millions Electric cars sold vs 42.2 Millions
gasoline and diesel cars .

▪ 2025 will be crucial for the Auto industry as the biggest

Automakers will be ready to launch their fully Electric
vehicles in addition of many Government encouraging the
adoption of Electric cars

▪ Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will stay the same before

disappearing as the time go

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 Electric Cars Market

▪ China and the US are the main markets for the Electric
vehicles as they respectively weight more than 70% in 2018
for the global market.

▪ Europe have a lot of work to do in order to be a major player

in the Electric vehicles market

▪ The exponential growth of China is astonishing , the US is

second but might be outrun by Europe

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 Electric Cars Market

CHINA , USA AND EUROPE

VEHICULE SALES
▪ The part of Electric Vehicles in the overall Vehicle (IN MILLIONS )
Sales in the 3 major markets (China, USA and Europe)
Combustion Vehicle Electric Vehicles Sales
is increasing

▪ Combustion Vehicles are decreasing heavily as in

2019 only 56 Millions combustion vehicle sold Vs 60 1,284

in 2017 2,024

▪ The Growth of Electric Vehicle will outrun the

combustion vehicle market in the upcoming years 2,114
60,45
58,95

56,52

2017 2018 2019

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 Electric Cars Market

▪ The Growth in Electric Vehicles Demand is

partially due to the reduction in cost
regarding batteries
▪ That make the price of an Electric Vehicles
considerably lower than between 2011 and
2015
LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACK COSTS
WORLDWIDE BETWEEN 2011 AND 2020
(IN U.S. DOLLARS PER KILOWATT HOUR)
917

▪ The price is projected to get even lower in 721

the coming years …. 663
588

381
293
219
180 156 135

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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 Electric Cars Market

▪ This chart show the growth as a percentage of Electric

Vehicles sold in 2019 in each country

▪ Norway , Iceland and Netherland lead the way with (

58%,22% , 15%) Europe have a great potential of growth

▪ France and Germany are way behind ...

▪ China still showing some strength …

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 Electric Cars Producers

▪ Tesla , BYD and BAIC are the major Electric vehicle

automaker in the industry they count for more than 30% of
the overall market

▪ The Usual Normal cars players (Volkswagen, Toyota and

BMW)are far behind….

▪ Renault-Nissan is showing great potential

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 Electric Cars Producers

Tesla BYD Baic

▪ Tesla is number 1 in 2019 followed by Chinese

Automakers BYD and BAIC.

▪ With 367,820 cars produced for Tesla against

221,000 for BYD , a huge lead for Tesla but is it

367820
because their innovation , or the inexistent
competition ?

221000

160000
TOTAL PRODUCERS 2019

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Electric Cars Producers

• Tesla is in the lead for 2018 with 220,000

cars sold , right behind is Renault-Nissan
with almost 130,000 cars sold
• Volkswagen , Toyota and Daimler are way
behind

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Electric Cars Producers

By 2025 Volkswagen will be in the lead with

almost 1.4 Millions cars sold!!
Tesla will stagnate by then as in 2025 the US
Automaker will only have 350,000 almost the
same level as now
Renault-Nissan and Geely have also
overtaken Tesla …

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 Charging Battery

▪ Europe have a long way to go in the European market in 2018 with

order to catch the US or China , as Sweden as a leader with 8% market
this chart show us that Electrically- Share .
chargeable vehicles are so low in

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 Charging Battery

▪ Electric vehicle charging

points are focused in
Germany , Netherland
,France and Uk

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 2. Electric Cars by
Region and Country

▪ USA
▪ China
▪ Europe

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 Electric cars Worldwide
Electric Cars Sales 2019
350000

Tesla Model 3
▪ Tesla is the King in the Market with almost 3 time 300000
Baic EU series
more cars sold than the second , BAIC the Chinese
Automaker. Nissan Leaf
250000 BYD Yuan/S2 EV

▪ But this is 2019 and major player in the US Market SAIC Baojun E-
series
like Ford and GM as well as the 200000 BMW 530E
German(Volkswagen ,BMW) didn’t start the Mitsubishi
competition for the Electric cars market Outlander

300075
Renault ZOE
150000
Hyundai Kona
▪ The Chinese Automaker have a great place in the
BMW I3
global market
100000 Tesla Model X

Chery EQ ev

111047
50000 Toyota Prius Phev

69873
67839
60050
Volkwagen e-Golf

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 USA Electric cars

USA Electric sales

154836
18500
16418
14208
2019 13300
12365
5369
4854
4863

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000

Tesla model 3 Tesla model X Chevy Bolt Others Tesla model S Nissan Leaf Audi E-tron BMW I3 Volkswagen E-golf

▪ USA Electric cars sales by model show the dominance

of Tesla with the model 3 as main product

▪ Where is Ford and General Motors ??

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Europe Electric cars

EU 2019

Audi E-tron

Hyundai Kona

▪ Tesla is in the lead with almost 100k cars VW E-golf

sold in EU
BMW I3

▪ Renault Zoe show great potential Nissan Leaf

▪ The German cars are starting their way Mitsubishi outlander PHEV

to the lead … Renault Zoe

Tesla model 3

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

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 Europe Electric cars
EU SALES Jan-20
Peugeot 508 PHEV 1420
Tesla model 3 1517
BMW I3 1737
Volvo Xc60 PHEV 1761
VW Passat GTE 1890
BMW X5 PHEV 1974
Hyundai Kona 2126
Audi E-tron 2252
BMW 330e 2295
Peugeot 3008 EV 2297
Mitsubishi outlander PHEV 3149
Nissan Leaf 3177
VW E-golf 3296
Peugeot 208 EV 3897
Renault Zoe 9782
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

▪ Renault Zoe is the best car in January 2020 with almost

10k cars sold in the Europe

▪ Tesla is way behind …..

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 Europe Electric cars

Netherland 2019 sales

Opel Ampera-e

SAIC MG ZS EV

▪ Tesla is the best in 2019 Hyundai Ioniq E

Mitsubishi outlander PHEV

▪ The Dutch market show great potential Renault Zoe

for the coming years will Tesla continue BMW I3

its lead or not? VW E-golf

Kia Nero EV
▪ German vehicles have a great place as Nissan Leaf
well as Hyundai with its model Kona Audi E-tron

Hyundai Kona

Tesla Model 3

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

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 Europe Electric cars

Netherland sales
February 2020

Nissan Leaf
Hyundai Ioniq E
▪ Opel Ampera-e is the winner in February 2020 Mitsubishi outlander PHEV
Renault Zoe
▪ Tesla show some weakness … BMW X5 PHEV
Volvo S/V60 PHEV
▪ VW E-golf show great potential Tesla Model 3
Volvo XC60 PHEV
Skoda Citigo
Hyundai Kona
Kia Nero EV
VW E-golf
Opel Ampera-e

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

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 Europe Electric cars

Norway 2019 Sales

Tesla model X

Renault Zoe

Volvo XC60 T8 PHEV

▪ Norway the country with the most potential growth
Hyundai Ioniq E
in Europe
Jaguar I-Pace

▪ Tesla lead in 2019 followed by VW E-golf Hyundai Kona

Mitsubishi outlander PHEV

▪ German cars are on fire !! BMW I3

Audi E-tron

Nissan Leaf

VW E-golf

Tesla model 3

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

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Europe Electric cars

Norway Auto registrations FEB-2020 Norway FEB 2020

Kia Nero EV
1004 Skoda Citigo
1159
Peugeot 3008 EV

1137 Opel Ampera-e

7055 Volvo XC60 T8 PHEV

Hyundai Ioniq E

Renault Zoe
Petrol Diesel Hybrids (plugless) EVs(BEV+PHEV) BMW I3

Hyundai Kona

Kia Soul EV
▪ For February 2020 Norway have almost 70% of
Mitsubishi outlander PHEV
new Auto registration in Electric Vehicle.
Nissan Leaf

▪ German cars are in the lead VW E-golf

Audi E-tron
▪ Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe show great
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
potential in this market

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 Europe Electric cars

France 2019

Hyundai Kona

Smart Fortwo EV

Kia Nero EV

▪ The French market is still behind in the swift for Volvo XC60 PHEV

Electric Vehicle Mini Countrymen PHEV

BMW I3
▪ Renault Zoe is clearly in the lead Mitsubishi outlander PHEV

▪ Tesla still have a good place Nissan Leaf

Tesla Model 3

Others

Renault Zoe

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

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Europe Electric cars

France FEB 2020

Nissan Leaf

Hyundai Kona

Peugeot 508 PHEV

▪ Renault Zoe is clearly number 1 in France
Peugeot 3008 PHEV

▪ Consumer are still hesitant to buy fully Electric cars DS 3 Crossback EV

as they tend to prefer PHEV DS 7 Crossback PHEV

▪ But the local Automaker are in control Tesla model 3

Others

Peugeot 208 EV

Renault Zoe

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

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 Europe Electric cars

Germany 2019

Nissan Leaf 2620

Hyundai Kona 3521

Audi E-tron 3578

BMW 530e 4209

▪ Renault Zoe again … but very close to BMW I3
BMW 225xe 4981

▪ Tesla still have a good place Smart Fortwo EV 5287

Mercedes E300e/de 6305

▪ German market is way behind compared to Norway or VW E-golf 6898

Netherland Mitsubishi outlander PHEV 7593

Tesla Model 3 9013

BMW I3 9382

Renault Zoe 9431

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

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 Europe Electric cars

Germany FEB 2020

Audi E-tron
▪ For February 2020 VW E-golf is in the lead but
Tesla Model 3
Renault Zoe is right behind
Mercedes C300e/de
▪ Tesla after a good 2019 year is starting to show
weakness in early 2020 as European car maker VW Passat GTE

takes control VW E-UP!

▪ Renault Zoe is the car with the most potential Mitsubishi outlander PHEV
in Europe
Renault Zoe

VW E-golf

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

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China Electric cars

CHINA 2019
BAIC -EX Series 19182
Changan Eado EV 23148
▪ In China Local Automaker are in obvious BAIC -EC Series 27354
control with BAIC and BYD in the lead . BMW 530Le 27603
Great Wall Ora E1 EV 28498
Geely Emgrand EV 28958
▪ Tesla still have a good place but have a
BYD e5 29311
demand problem as the company cut prices
Tesla Model 3(Est) 29398
in Chinese market in the recent times SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV 30550
GAC Aion S 32126
▪ European Automaker have long way to go to BYD Tang PHEV 34084
conquer the large market in the world Chery eQ 39401
SAIC Baojun E-series 60050
BYD Yuan/S2 EV 67839
BAIC -EU Series 111047
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

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 China Electric cars

CHINA FEB 2020

BYD e2 305
SAIC MG eZS EV 334
SAIC Baojun E-series 335

▪ Tesla is in the lead but is it because the Faw Bestum B30 EV 371

company cut prices ? Or not Changan Eado EV 408

BMW 530Le 445

▪ Chinese Automaker have a variety of Chery eQ 470

product BYD Yuan/S2 EV 505

Weltmeister EX5 567

▪ Tesla only have 3 product and the only one NIO ES6 671

really working now is model 3 BAIC -EU Series 979

GAC Aion S 1433
BYD QIN PRO EV 1477
Tesla Model 3 2284

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

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 Tesla Financial

Fundamentals vs Market

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 Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet
14000

12000

▪ The growth of the receivables is insufficient 10000

▪ Long term debt is growing 8000

▪ Financial activities increased the cash on 6000

hand, not the operational ones

4000

2000

0
2017 2018 2019

Cash on Hand Receivables Inventory Long term debt Equity

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 Balance Sheet

2017 2018 2019

TESLA SHARES OUTSTANDING 166,0 171,0 177,0

▪ The Book value of Tesla is 42,2$ in 2019 but the Market Price Year Close 311,4 332,8 418,3
market is pricing tesla 10x times more at 418,3

▪ Is Tesla overvalued ? considering the price hit 1800$ BOOK VALUE 31,5 33,7 42,2
in July 2020

Equity Market Value 51684,1 56908,8 74039,1

Equity 5234,6 5757,0 7467,0

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 Ratio Analysis

2017 2018 2019

current ratio 0,8561 0,8313 1,1346

▪ Negative Returns ...but improving at
steady pace Quick ratio 0,5262 0,4831 0,7348

▪ Gross margin is showing weakness

Debt/Equity Ratio 1,9705 2,0796 1,7971

▪ Debt is manageable
Gross Margin 18,9047 18,8342 16,5550

ROE -42,8114 -18,4546 -10,3790

ROI -15,2938 -7,0114 -4,0574

ROA -7,8205 -3,5743 -2,2589

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 Income Statement

$30.000,00

$25.000,00

▪ Revenue is increasing but as well as the operating $20.000,00

Expenses.
Revenue

▪ R&D Expenses not so great and decreasing in 2019 $15.000,00 GROSS PROFIT
R&D Expenses

▪ Operating Income still negative but increasing $10.000,00

Operating Expenses

(Regulatory Credit might have something to do Net Income

Operating Income
here ) $5.000,00

$-
2017 2018 2019

-$5.000,00

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 Cash Flow Statement

2017 2018 2019

Cash Flow from Operating activities -61 2098 2405

Cash Flow from Investing activities -4193 -2337 -1436

▪ The Increase in the Cash flow from Operating activities
is due to the non Cash Item … Cash Flow from Financial activities 4415 574 1529

Net Cash Flow 198 312 2506

▪ The improvement from the Cash flow from investing
activities is due to the decrease in investing on
Property ,Plant …
2017 2018 2019
▪ Cash Flow from financial activities is increasing
because of the new Equity issued / repurchased Total non Cash Item 2677 3103 3529

Net change in Property, Plant -3415 -2101 -1327

Net Total Equity Issued/Repurchased 482 296 1285

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 Tesla vs Others

▪ NO Comment

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Tesla vs Others

▪ No comment

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 Tesla vs Others

▪ No comment

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 Tesla technical analysis

Tesla price is still in a Bullish trend but couldn’t break 1671 to reach new highs and is struggling now technically ,the price will
go toward the bottom of the trend line at around 1200 so unless we break 1671 which I doubt , the next target is 1200 then 900
for Tesla
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Thank You!
This is only my own opinion it´s not a financial advice

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