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Free Exchange Return of The R
Free Exchange Return of The R
26th 2022
Weather is again determining economic outcomes. Soon it will be even more important
be in winter after the harvest was taken; in hilly areas, they would
be during summer, once the lambing season had come to an end.
After industrialisation, such regional and seasonal marriage pat
terns disappeared, providing a clue as to which parts of England
first adopted fossilfuelbased production techniques.
Hundred of years later, seasonality is returning to Britain and
other parts of Europe, as the continent weans itself from Russian
gas. Part of the reason for this return is physical. Natural gas is
much harder to transport and store than coal or liquid oil. In the
past, Europe benefited from abundant piped gas provided by Rus
sia, as well as the option of topups of liquefied natural gas
shipped from abroad. Now supplies are tight and Europeans must
mostly rely on the shipped stuff. The continent’s storage facilities
are already more than 90% full, and filling the last bits of available
space is expensive, since the contents must be kept under high
pressure. Constrained supply means that changes in demand de
termine the price of energy—and the weather is the most uncer
tain determinant of demand.
Autumn spared Europe the worst: the continent enjoyed the
hottest October on record. As a result, the price for a unit of gas on
the Dutch title transfer facility, which provides the benchmark for
the continent, fell to around €100 per megawatt hour, half the rate
“N ow the rains had really come,” writes Chinua Achebe, in
“Things Fall Apart”, a novel set in 19thcentury Nigeria, “so
heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer
in September. But now winter is starting to make itself felt. Ger
many’s first snows have arrived. Historically there has been a rela
tively linear relationship between gas demand and the tempera
claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now, ture: the colder it gets, the more gas is needed. This year things are
just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry sea a little more complicated. Homeheating systems have been left
son, without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian econo dormant for longer than usual. Blanket sales are on the rise. Peo
mies, of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel, the economic cycle ple are willing to wrap up warm to resist Vladimir Putin.
and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right The gas crisis is not the only reason for a greater focus on the
time, the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast, weather. Renewables now supply much more energy to Europe
drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker— than even a few years ago, leading to problems if the wind does not
much like the modernday central banker—may attempt to blow or the sun does not shine. Indeed, hydropower has also been
smooth out the business cycle, literally dampening things down an issue for Europe this year, after a hot summer dried out the res
when they get too hot. Ultimately, though, it is the power of nature ervoirs and rivers on which dams depend. Improving and invest
that decides the outcome. ing in ways to store electricity, whether batteries, hydrogen or
Europe’s energy crisis has brought the return of weatherbased other techniques, could in future smooth out such variability. The
economics. The crisis is a reminder that, for all their technological continent nonetheless faces years, or even decades, of nervously
sophistication, even richworld economies must rely on the mu watching the skies as it adjusts.
nificence of nature. European economists, financiers and policy Yet in the absence of a transition to green forms of energy the
makers are watching forecasts closely: a balmy winter will bring weather would begin to play an even bigger role in economics. A
relief, requiring less gas to be burned in order to keep houses warmer planet is already leading to more frequent and extreme
warm. If temperatures are not too punishing, energy prices will events, such as Europe’s summer heatwaves or the devastating
fall and growth be given a boost. A frosty winter, on the other floods endured by Pakistan. These events amount to socalled real
hand, will bring misery: pushing millions into poverty, increasing shocks to an economy: external changes that lower productive ca
inflationary pressures and keeping industries shuttered. pacity, and so cause both higher inflation and unemployment.
Fossil fuels originally promised to free economies from the va
garies of the seasons. Instead of relying on ambient solar power— Head in the clouds
captured in grain, preserved in livestock or photosynthesised into This dual threat is harder for central bankers to deal with than
biomass and then consumed as firewood—humanity could burn downturns that arise from changes in business confidence or a fi
coal, releasing the prehistoric solar power contained within. The nancial crisis. Tighten policy too much in response and it will ex
use of fossil fuels allowed energy to be stored, transported and re acerbate the downturn; too little and inflation may get out of
leased exactly when required. They placed the power of the sun at hand. According to analysis by the imf of Pacific and Caribbean is
the beck and call of mankind, rather than the other way around. lands, naturaldisasterprone countries grow by around one per
Ann Kussmaul, an economic historian, tracked the spread of centage point less a year and have considerably higher debt stocks
the Industrial Revolution through England by assessing when re than those less at risk. Climate change will only exacerbate these
gions moved beyond seasonal economics. Parish marriage certif differences. Thus a return to weatherdependent economics will
icates measured the point at which fossil fuels freed workers from leave some central bankers looking even more like rainmakers: at
the rhythms of nature and instead tied them to the factory whistle. tempting to perform the old rituals or demanding more sacrifices,
Before industrialisation, marriages in lowlying areas would often without much capacity to affect the economic weather. n
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