Reliability System /

Reliability Structure

NANI KURNIATI, PhD

DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI SEPULUH NOPEMBER (ITS)

Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

 Outline:
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

1. Reliability System Definitions

2. Series system
3. Parallel system
4. Decomposition
5. Cross link and Bridge
6. Methods to calculate R system

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 1. reliability system
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A product can be seen as an entity or a structure of multiple

components
• Sytem is components that are structured
• System can be small and simple to highly complex

• The reliability of a system is determined by

– the reliability of each component and
– the structure of the components
• To examine the system reliability -> use reliability block
diagram (RBD)
• Block diagram represents each component in the system by a
block and connect the blocks using directed lines

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 1. Reliability system
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• R of a system is a function of R of its component

Rsystem = f ( R1, R2 ,..., Rn )

Where:
– Rsys = the reliability of the system
– R1, R2, ....., Rn = the reliability of each component
– f = the structure of the system
• The function is derived from the structure of the
system
• There are two basic structure of a system:
– Series
– Parallel

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 2. Series System
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A series system operates if and only if ALL of it’s

components operates.

• Rsys = Prob (Comp.1 works ∩ Comp. 2 works ∩ … ∩ Comp. n

works)
• Rsys = P (Comp.1 works) x P (Comp.2 works) x P (Comp. n
works)
• Rsys = R1 x R2 x … x Rn

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 2. Series System
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• It is usually assumed that each component functions

independently of all the others
• The addition of extra components decreases the
reliability
• Because 0≤ Ri < 1, then Rsys  min {Ri}.
Rsystem = f ( R1.R2 ,......, Rn )
Rsystem = R1  R2  ...  Rn
n
Rsystem = R
i =1
i

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 3. Parallel System
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Parallel system operates if ANY of the components

operate

• Rsys = Prob (Comp 1 works U Comp 2 works U…U

Comp n works)
• Parallel system fails if ALL of the components fail
• Fsys = P(Comp1 fails ∩ Comp 2 fails ∩...∩ Comp n
fails) Nani Kurniati, PhD
 3. Parallel System
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Fsys = (1- Rsys)

• Fsys = P(Comp1 fails ∩ Comp 2 fails ∩...∩ Comp n fails)
• (1- Rsys) = P(Comp1 fails) x P( Comp 2 fails) ... P( Comp n fails)
1 − Rsystem = (1 − R1 )(1 − R2 ) .... (1 − Rn )
n
1 − Rsystem =  (1 − R )
i =1
i

n
Rsystem = 1 −  (1 − R )
i =1
i

• The addition of extra components increases the system

reliability
• A type of redundancy system, if a component fails, there are
fall backs in position so that the whole system doesn’t
necessarily fail Nani Kurniati, PhD
 Exercise 1
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

1. A series system has three components with reliabilities R1 =

0.9 , R2 = 0.95 , R3 = 0.85. What is the system reliability?
2. A parallel system has three components with reliabilities R1 =
0.9 , R2 = 0.95 , and R3 = 0.85. What is the system reliability?
3. A series system has six identical components with the same
reliability. If the system reliability must be at least 0.99, how
reliable must each component be?
4. A parallel system has six identical components with the same
reliability. If the system reliability must be at least 0.99, how
reliable must each component be?

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Additional
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

Paralel system vs redundant system

Parallel system is a special type of partially redundant system. A

partially redundant system (K out of N system) is a system with
back-up in position so that the system will continue to operate as
long as a minimum number of components continue to operate.
→ redundant system with K =1 or 1 out of N system, is called
as parallel system.

A submarine has four pump circulating air. The atmosphere on

the submarine is bearable as long as at least two of pumps are
operating (2 out of 4 system). Suppose each pump has reliability
0.9, what is the probability that the submarine is bearable?
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 4. Decomposition
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Decomposing a system is when we break down a system into

smaller subsystems that are either series or parallel system
• This method can be used to find the reliability of some
complicated systems

11

A B

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 4. Decomposition
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

R
m
Rsystem = 1 − 
i =1
(1 − Ri ) Rsystem =
j =1
j

m n n  m 
Rsystem = 1 −  (1 −  R )
i =1 j =1
ij Rsystem =  (
1 −

1 − R ji 
 )
j =1  i =1 
A B

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 4. Decomposition
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

R A = R1 R2
RB = 1 − (1 − R3 )(1 − R4 )
RC = R5 R6

RD = R A RB
Rs = 1 − (1 − RC )(1 − RD )

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Exercises 2
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Consider the system given in block diagram below.

If all components have the same reliability R = 0.9,
find the system reliability!

A B

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 5. Cross-links and bridge connections
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Apart of adding components in parallel system,

there are other methods to increase the reliability
of a system with or without adding extra
components
• The methods are:
• Add a cross-link
• Add a bridge connection
• It is more difficult to calculate the reliability of a
cross-linked or bridge connected system since
these cannot be broken down into series and
parallel subsystems
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 5. Cross-links
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

A B

C D

• The system still functions if either A and B or C and D

function, but now the system will function if A and D
function. Thus we must have increased the system
reliability without altering the number of components.
We have simply added an extra link (a cross-link)
between components.

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 5. Bridge connection
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

A B

C D

• An alternative method of increasing the system reliability is to

add a bridge connection. This system has added an extra
component which allows flow from either side of the circuit to
the other. The system therefore still works if A and B or C and D
function. However the added possibilities of A, D and E, or B, C
and E now also allow the system to function.

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 6. Methods to calculate the reliability system
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• When the system has a cross-link or bridge

connection, it cannot be broken down into series
and parallel subsystems. Consequently, the
reliability of such system can be calculated by
using:
A. Conditional probability
B. Cut sets
C. Path sets
D. Event trees
E. Fault trees

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 A. Conditional probability
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• To use this method, choose a component and condition on

whether or not this keystone component works.
• It is not important which component is chosen as the
keystone, since it should give same answer regardless of
choice. However if the keystone is chosen carefully, it can
be a lot simpler.
• The keystone should be an important component one
which has a lot of influence on the circuit.
• In the cross-linked system one of the components that
involved in the cross-link would be sensible choice.
• In the bridge circuit, the bridge component E is a good
keystone

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 A. Conditional probability
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

From the Law of Total Probability, we have

P(system work) = Rsystem

= P(system works / E works) x P(E works)
+ P(system works / E fails) x P(E fails)
= Rsystem/E x RE + Rsystem/E complement x (1-RE)

P(A)= P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B’)P(B’)

By assuming that all components have the same

reliability R = 0.9, let’s consider the two conditional
circuits separately.....

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 A. Conditional probability
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• If component E works:
A B A B

C D C D

(
Rsystem = Rsys E ) ( RE ) +  Rsys E  (1 − RE )
 
• Thus we have a system which consists of two parallel
systems in series thus:
RA∩C = 1 – (1 – RA)(1 – RC) = 1 – (1 – 0.9)(1 – 0.9)
= 1 – 0.01 = 0.99
0.99 = RB∩D
and therefore
Rsys/E = RA∩C x RB∩D = 0.992 = 0.9801

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 A. Conditional probability
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• If component E doesn’t work:

A B A B

C D C D

Rsys E = 1 − (1 − R A B ) (1 − RC  D )

• Thus now we have a system which consists of two

series systems in parallel and:
RA∩B = RARB = 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 = RC∩D

and therefore
= 1 – 0.192 = 0.9639.
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 A. Conditional probability
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Thus if we refer back to the original circuit

then:

( ) 


Rsystem = Rsys E ( RE ) +  Rsys E  (1 − RE )

Rsystem = 0,9801  0,9 + 0,9639  0,1
Rsystem = 0,97848

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 B. Cut Set
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A cut set is set of components from a system such

that if all components in the set fail then the
system fails
• Again consider the bridge system:
A B

C D

• The set {A, B, C, D} is a cut set since if all these

components fail then the system cannot function
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A minimal cut-set is a cut-set so that, no subset is also a cut-set

• For example, the set {A, B, C, D} is not a minimal cut-set since {A,
C} is subset, and is also a cut-set
• The set {A, C} however is a minimal cut-set

A B

C D

• A list of minimal cut-set of this system is

• C1 = {A, C} ; C2 = {B, D}; C3 = {A, D, E} ; C4 = {B, C, E}

• Define C1 as “all components in C1 fail” etc., then

• P(system fails) = Fsys = P (C1 U C2 U C3 U C4)

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

• We saw earlier that when we have three sets
P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A∩B) – P(A∩C) –
P(B∩C) + P(A∩B∩C)
• Expanding this for four sets we find
P(C1 U C2 U C3 U C4) =
P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
– P(C1∩C2) – P(C1∩C3) – P(C1∩C4) – P(C2∩C3)
– P(C2∩C4) – P(C3∩C4)
+ P(C1∩C2∩C3) + P(C1∩C2∩C4) + P(C1∩C3∩C4)
+ P(C2∩C3∩C4)
– P(C1∩C2∩C3∩C4)

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Note that this can be simplified since

C1 = {A fails ∩ C fails}
C3 = {A fails ∩ D fails ∩ E fails}
• giving
C1 ∩ C3 = {A fails ∩ C fails ∩ D fails ∩ E fails}
• Hence
P(C1 ∩ C3) = FA FC FD FE = F4=0.14 = 0.0001
• Repeating these calculation for all combination of cut sets
we can find
• Fsys = (2F2 + 2F3) – (5F4 + F5) + 4F5 – F5
= 2F2 + 2F3 – 5F4 + 2F5
= 0.02152
• And thus Rsys = 1 – Fsys = 0.97848
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• The actual solution using cut-sets involves a non

trivial amount of work
• To simplify the calculation, we can calculate the
lower bound for the system reliability

• The solution of the cut-sets problem revolves

around finding the value of Fsys = P(C1 U C2 U C3 U
C4) which wasn’t easy

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Consider the Venn diagram of the union of four event A, B,

C and D
• From this plot it is easy to see that
P(A U B U C U D) ≤ P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D)

• Using this in our problem we can find

Fsys = P(C1 U C2 U C3 U C4)
≤ P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
= F2 + F2 + F3 + F3 = 0.022
S
A
B
• and therefore
Rsys = 1 – Fsys
≥ 1 – 0.022 = 0.978
D C
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 B. Cut-Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• We can compare this lower bound for system reliability, 0.978,

with true value 0.97848.
• The lower bound for Rsys can be achieved with much less work
than the true value
• The more reliable the individual component, the closer the
approximation is to the true value
• In many cases, often the lower bound of Rsys is all that is
required, for example the methods applied by traffic
controllers are designed to keep the probability of collision
below a certain level i.e. Fsys≤ 10-9 or Rsys ≥1 – 10-9

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 C. Path Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A path-set is a set of components from a system such that if

all components in the set operate then the system operates
• Again consider the bridge system:

A B

C D

• The set {A,B,C,D} is a path set since if all these components

operate then the system functions

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 C. Path Sets
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A minimal path-set is a path set so that no subset is also a

path-set
• For example the set {A,B,C,D} is not a minimal path-set
since {A, B} is a subset, and is also a path-set.
• The set {A,B} however is a minimal path-set.
• A list of all the minimal path-sets of this system is
T1 = {A,B} , T2 = {C,D} , T3 = {A,D,E} , T4 = {B,C,E}
• Define T1 as “all components in T1 operate” etc., then
P(system operates) = Rsys
= P(T1 U T2 U T3 U T4)
= P(T1) + P(T2) + P(T3) + P(T4) – P(T1∩T2) – ….

• Very similar to the cut-set solution method, we would find:

Rsys = 2R2 + 2R3 – 5R4 + 2R5 = 0.97848
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 D. Event Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• In an event tree we create a tree diagram that

includes every possible combination of component
successes and failures
• We can then note for each brand of tree, the system
outcome and the associated probability
• Event tree algorithm:
– List components in any order
– At each component fork into work/fail
– When tree is complete, label each path as “success”, S,
or “failure”, X
– Determine the probability of each “success” path
– Sum these probabilities for Rsys

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 D. Event Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

Re
Re
S RaRbRcRdRe
S RaRbRcRdRe
Rd
Fe
Rd

Rc S RaRbRcRdFe
Fe

Rc S RaRbRcRdFe

Re
Re
S RaRbRcFdRe
S RaRbRcFdRe
Rb
Fd

S
Fd
Rd
S
Rb S
S
Fc

S
Fd
S
Ra S
Rd
S

S
Rd

Rc S
Fc
X RaFbRcFdRe

Fd
S
Fb
X Fd
S

Ra S
Rd

X
Fc

X
Fd

S
Rd
X

S
Rd

Rc S
Rc S
S
Fd

X RaFbRcFdRe
Rb X

Rd
X Fd
X
Fc
X
Fd
X
Fb
Fa
X

S
Rd
S
Rd

Rc S

X X
Fd

X
Fc
Fb

Rd
X
X
Fc
X Fd
X
Fd

X
X

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Event Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• This method becomes very computationally

intensive as the number of components
grows as there are 2n branches to the event
tree of a system with n components
• Therefore we need to reduce the event trees

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Reduced Event Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• A reduced event tree is closely related to

event tree. The algorithm for finding a
reduced event tree is the same as that for an
event tree except that after every fork we
check to see if failure or success is already
assured.
• Using the reduced event tree has simplified
the process as in this example it has reduced
the number of nodes from 32 to 13.
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 Reduced Event Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

Rb
S

Ra

Rd
S
Rc

Fd
X
Fb
S
Rd
X
Fc

Fd
X

Rd
S
Rc

S
Fd
Rb X

Fc
X

Fa

Rd
S
Rc

Fd
X
Fb

Fc
X Nani Kurniati, PhD
 E. Fault Trees Analysis (FTA)
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• An alternative representation of the system to

block diagram that is often used by engineers is
the fault tree.
• A fault tree is like an event tree, but concentrates
on component failures rather than successes, and
work backwards from system failure.
• Fault trees consist of basic events – component
failures (represented by circles), and gates.
• The gates are either AND or OR gates, represented
by:
. +

AND gate OR gate

Nani Kurniati, PhD
 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• The logical meaning of OR/AND gates are

the same as those of the union/intersection
of events. If any one of inputs to an OR gate
occurs, the output event of the gate follows.
The output event of an AND gate occur only
if all the input events leading in to it occur.
• We now concentrating on failure rather than
success, so the input /output events are
failures – not successes..
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Consider the series system with three components

A B C

• This system will fail if component A fails or

component B fails or component C fails. Thus the
fault tree of the system is simple OR system.
System Failure

A B C
fails fails fails

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Consider the parallel system with three components

A

• This system will fail only if component A fails and

component B fails and component C fails. Thus the fault
tree of the system is a simple AND system.
System Failure

A B C
fails fails fails
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• For more complex system we need a combination of

gates which we must number.
• Consider the following block diagram:
A B C

D E

• This is a parallel system, so it will only fail if both the

top module AND the bottom module fail. Both
modules are series subsystems, so each module will
fail if any one of the components involved fails. Thus
the fault tree is....

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

A B C

System Failure

D E

G1 G2

+ +

A B C D E

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• In order to compute the failure probability (or the

reliability) of a circuit represented by a fault tree we
must find the minimal cut-sets.
• An algorithm for generating this list is given below:
– All gates are numbered, starting at the top event, G0
(system failure)
– All basic events are numbered B1, B2, ….
– Start a list at G0. At any stage of process if a gates is an
OR gate, replace it with a list of all gates or basic events
feeding into it on separate rows. If the gate is an AND
gate insert the list on the same row
– Continue until all gates are replaced by basic events. The
sets of basic events are the minimal cut sets

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Find the minimal cut-sets of the following

fault tree System Failure
G 0

G1 G2 G3
+ +

B1 B2 B3 G4

B4
G5
.

G6 G7
+ +

B5 B6 B7 B8
Nani Kurniati, PhD
 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Solution – 1 • Solution – 2
G0 B1B3B4
B1B3G6G7
G1G2G3
B2B3B4
B1G2G3 B2B3G6G7
B2G2G3
B1B3G3 B1B3B4
B2B3G3 B1B3B5G7
B1B3B6G7
B1B3G4
B1B3G5 B2B3B4
B2B3G4 B2B3B5G7
B2B3G5 B2B3B6G7

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 E. Fault Trees
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Solution – 3 • Thus we have m = 10

B1B3B4 minimal cut set from
B1B3B5B7
B1B3B5B8 which we easily find
B1B3B6B7 a lower bound for
B1B3B6B8 the system reliability.
Minimal Cut
B2B3B4
B2B3B5B7
Sets • Now, please draw
B2B3B5B8 the circuit based on
B2 B3B6B7 the fault trees
B2 B3B6B8 provided!

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Exercises 3
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Given that R(t) = e-H(t), find the reliability of a

series system!
• Find the MTTF of a series system:
– In general formulation
– If the reliability follows the Weibull distribution
– If the reliability follows the Exponential distribution
• Find the MTTF of a parallel system:
– In general formulation
– If the reliability follows the Weibull distribution
– If the reliability follows the Exponential distribution

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Exercises 4
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

1. Find the reliability function or the P(system

operates) of this system:

2. Find the reliability of the following structure

is Ri = 0,8!

Nani Kurniati, PhD

 Exercises 5
Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS

• Find the reliability of this system:

• Find the reliability of this system

Nani Kurniati, PhD

END OF SLIDE

Industrial and Systems Engineering ITS