Lecture 3

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 Global Energy Trends: Demand, Consumption, Generation,
Investment and Trade.

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PHY 305
 primary energy consumption: electricity transportation and heat
Why are we studying the energy trends globally?

▪ It is important to understand the global trends in energy

generation and consumption to be able to address the
impact of burning fossil fuels on our environment,
exacerbated through the evident climatic impacts and global
warming.

▪ Using energy sources influence global economies since these

resources are transported and utilized around the world. 3
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 1. Energy Demand

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▪ It took thousands of years for the human population to
reach 1 billion (in 1804)
▪ 123 years to reach 2 billion (1927)
▪ 33 years to reach 3 billion (1960)
▪ 14 years to reach 4 billion (1974)
▪ 13 years to reach 5 billion (1987)
▪ 12 years to reach 6 billion (1999)
▪ 12 years to reach 7 billion (2012)
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U.N. projections of world population
growth based on the logistic curve
and using different total fertility rates
(the expected number of children a
woman will have during her life)

The industrialized and urbanized

countries produce and use most of
the world’s energy.
As societies change from rural to
urban, energy demands generally
increase. Controlling the increase of
human population is an important
factor in reducing total demand for
energy (total demand is the product
of average demand per person and
number of people).

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Factors that lead to an increase in the energy demands:

▪ Rapid Population Growth Rates

▪ The industrialization and urbanization of countries lead to an increase in the

production and consumption of the world’s energy. Hence, as societies
change from rural to urban, energy demands generally increase (Partially due
to increases in technological innovations)

How to reduce the total energy demand for energy?

Control the increase of human population
(total demand is the product of average demand per person and number of people)

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1- High GDP/capita indicates
high standards of living in a
country
2- Increases in populations

Increase in
energy demand

Increased availability of energy is

important for raising the living
standards of many across the world.

Disadvantage:

It also makes the transition to low-

carbon energy systems more
challenging →

Additions of clean energy must

outpace this growth in
demand and displace fossil fuels
already in the energy mix.

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Energy usage has long tracked
economic growth.

The amounts of energy that

economies need have
increased with the amounts of
wealth that economies create.

This also means that a shortage

of energy may negatively affect
economic growth, and
consequently employment and
income ( ex: Lebanon, Ethiopia)

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 the higher the energy intensity the lower the energy efficiency.
Energy intensity:

Ratio of total energy use to GDP - measured by

the quantity of energy required per unit output
or activity.

Energy Intensity= Primary energy consumption

per capita per year (kWh)/ GDP per capita ($)

This means that using less energy to produce a

product reduces the energy intensity → which
is better!

→ If we use a lot of energy to produce a

product → increase energy intensity

As such, energy intensity is a measure of the

energy inefficiency of an economy.

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 use machines that are energy efficient
energy efficient tech
renewable energy
Energy intensity:

As such, energy intensity is a measure of the

energy inefficiency of an economy.

➢ When the energy intensity increases, the

energy efficiency will decrease

➢ When the energy intensity decrease, the

energy efficiency will increase

Rises in Energy consumption can be partially

offset by improvements in energy intensity –
the amount of energy consumed per dollar
(per unit of GDP).

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• We can see evident fluctuations in
the Energy Intensities of economies.

• Nearing towards year 2015, the

energy intensity is declining.

• Reason?

• SDG7 that strives to achieve

improvements in Global Energy
trends

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 2. Energy Consumption

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 energy mix which something +ve and showing a change

Global energy consumption is still

on the rise.

When we look at data over the past half

century, there are only a handful of years
where energy consumption did not
increase – 2009, the year following the
financial crisis, being a key one.

Global energy consumption rebounded

with a 5% growth in 2021, after a 4.5%
decline in 2020, in a context of global
pandemic.

In value, the 2021 global energy

consumption stands above the 2019
levels.

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Global energy consumption
continues to grow, but it
slowed down year 2019 –
averaging around 1% to 2%
and then rapidly declined
year 2021 due to the
pandemic.

Currently, it is witnessing a
sharp increase!

We see that global energy

consumption has
increased nearly every
year for more than half a
century. The exceptions to
this are in the early 1980s,
and 2009 following the
financial crisis.

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Lebanon also witnessed fluctuations
in the annual change in primary
energy consumption.

In 2018, the consumption has

witnessed a declined of 5.66%
(impact of slow global and local
economic growth); followed by an
increase of about 1.81% year 2019.

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Primary energy consumption:
the sum of total energy
consumption, including
electricity, transport and
heating.

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 fifth trend

The largest energy

consumers include Iceland,
Norway, Canada, the
United States, and wealthy
nations in the Middle East
such as Oman, Saudi
Arabia and Qatar.

The average person in

these countries consumes
as much as 100 times
more than the average
person in some of the
poorest countries

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Can you extract from the
graph which on the sources
of energy has then greatest
per capita energy?

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Globally, primary energy
consumption has increased
nearly every year for at least half
a century. But this is not the
case everywhere in the world.

Energy consumption is rising in

many countries where incomes
are rising quickly and the
population is growing.

However, the pandemic has led

to a great impact on the energy
sector!

Positive values indicate a

country’s energy consumption
was higher than the previous
year. Negative values indicate its
energy consumption was lower
than the previous year.

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Electricity is only one dimension
of energy consumption (the
others being transport and
heating fuel)

In the map here we see the

differences in average per capita
electricity consumption across
the world.

What becomes clear is the large

inequalities which exist between
countries. In many low-income
countries, per capita electricity
consumption is more than 100-
fold lower than the richest
countries.

In 2014, the average person in

the Democratic Republic of
Congo consumed just over
100kWh – this is more than 100
times less than Canada, the US,
Australia, Norway, Sweden or
Finland, South Korea and the
UAE which all consumed over
10,000kWh.

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3. Energy Generation

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Countries with recorded
high rates of energy
consumption tend to
have high electricity
generation rates

The generation of
electricity is also highly
interrelated to the
countries’ electricity
demand!

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A significant gap may exist
between the electricity
demands among developed
countries globally.

Even some individual

developed countries may
have sharp increases (China)
or minor increases in their
energy demands across the
years ( Russia, France, UK)

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Electricity generation
rates declined year
2020 due to the
economic crisis and
the pandemic

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Household electricity prices worldwide in December 2020 (in U.S. dollars per kilowatt hour)

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 4. Investment

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PHY 305
Investment in clean energy globally in 2019
(in billion USD)

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Despite investment into alternative energies,
oil is still the world’s most traded commodity.
Here are the world’s oil exporters, ranked by
revenue and global market share.

Top ten exporters of crude oil, ranked by

earnings and their percentage of the
world market.

1. Saudi Arabia – $136.2 Billion | 20.1%

2. Russia – $73.7 Billion | 10.9%
3. Iraq – $46.3 Billion | 6.8%
4. Canada – $39.5 Billion | 5.8%
5. United Arab Emirates – $38.9 Billion |
5.7%
6. Kuwait – $30.7 Billion | 4.5%
7. Iran – $29.1 Billion | 4.3%
8. Nigeria – $27 Billion | 4.0%
9. Angola – $25.2 Billion | 3.7%
10. Norway – $22.6 Billion | 3.3%

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 5. Trade

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