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Prospects For Central Asia
Prospects For Central Asia
V. A. Dukhovny
Director SIC ICWC, B-11, Karasu-4, Tashkent 700187, Uzbekistan
who can replace existing specialists. Budgets and loans in all of these countries
are devoted to supporting significant efforts in this sector but they do not take
into consideration future development, including human potential develop-
ment and support.
Transition in the marketplace also impacts upon the water sector. The mar-
ket is oriented towards quick results, quick revenue, and profit making, and
pays less attention to things that can give good results in the future. But all
water-related measures have long-term characteristics. They are conservative
in nature and their long-term development objectives come into conflict with
the market’s demands for instant profit. It is not coincidental that all interna-
tional finance institutions have reduced their investments in the water sector.
Moreover, the market is oriented towards narrow interests in order to make
the maximum profit. But who will pay for the poor man, or for nature itself ?
If current national approaches and self-interests stand in the way of human
water development, a range of external factors also work against us:
r population growth, whose well-being depends on direct or indirect use of
land and water resources;
r six different states within the Aral sea basin, each with their own national
and sectoral interests and different levels of economic maturity and devel-
opment;
r globalization expressed in both evident and hidden impacts: low prices on
raw materials including food; fight for markets and import prices dumping,
attempts of large companies to take control over water and power resources
and dictate their own “rules of the game” in transition of the economy;
r climate change, resulting in extreme natural phenomena (flood, drought),
increasing in frequency and severity.
Under these conditions, we must take a sensible approach and “look for-
ward” in the water sector to consider what we might set against objective and
subjective trends and conditions. We must consider what actions can be taken
in order not to lose the achievements of the last 10 years. We must heed the
Eastern proverb that says: “the path can be ploughed through by walking,”
and the Japanese saying: “Climb easier together.”
In order to perceive how we should conduct ourselves and make progress
in this situation, we should take the position of those whom we serve and
whom we want to (and must) make our allies, assistants and partners—the
water users.
Consider the figures below, relating to average water availability in
Ferghana valley canals for 2003, and the even stronger dispersion of it within
WUAs, and think how crop-growing technology could be implemented under
such water supply fluctuations.
PROSPECTS FOR CENTRAL ASIA DEVELOPMENT 129
130 V. A. DUKHOVNY
PROSPECTS FOR CENTRAL ASIA DEVELOPMENT 131
132
It is clear that the old “top–down” water supply system must be replaced by
stochastic water expectation through many staged and multifactor staircases
from the basin to the user. Where there are so many willing and seeking to
intervene it is sometimes surprising that the consumer obtains water at all.
Indeed, sometimes it seems that this occurs by chance.
Integration is the single key to the solving of the very complicated issue of
water management and preservation and this solution should be implemented
from a higher level and coordinated between all hierarchic levels of water
management. Integration, which we started to become aware of in the example
of three pilot canals in the Ferghana valley, and which is described in detail in V.
Sokolov’s recent paper, is only a part of the process, related to lower hierarchic
levels like the canal, WUA, and water user. I would like to draw your attention
to issues more of principal such as relations between governance, society and
management.
136 V. A. DUKHOVNY
PROSPECTS FOR CENTRAL ASIA DEVELOPMENT 137
cannot work without each other but are afraid to open ourselves and move
towards establishing a single platform on water accounting and forecasting
by quantity and quality.
r ICWC and BWO should involve in their activities all concerned parties and
make them partners rather than external observers.
Recognizing ecological requirements does not necessarily mean water
supply for the environment. Kazakhstan really protects its deltas but still
plans water supply to the deltas residually.
The agreements of 1998 have run their term and now perform badly.
There is, however, a solution. Firstly, both water and power specialists should
plan water and energy conservation measures, after which it will be easy to
coordinate irrigation schedules (with 15% water savings) and power schedules
(with 20% energy savings). Secondly, it is necessary to separate water from
fuel. The river regime should be strictly observed; energy and fuel should
be coordinated within the water-power consortium as regards the financial
mechanism of this exchange. This is important in conditions where the market
price of 1 kvt/h in the region does not exceed 1 cent/1 kvt/h. Flow regulation
should be paid but not 1 m3 of water should be released during seasonal or
long-term regulation.
There are several other considerations:
r Water resources integration. We still try to jointly manage only surface water
but there are huge resources of ground and return water. Special attention
must be paid to these waters because they also can be a source of conflict. In
their agreements, Israel, Jordan and Palestine take into account each million
of cubic meters of these waters, whereas we ignore tens of billions Of cubic
meters
r Water distribution accuracy and confidence improvement through head
structures equipment by SCADA systems. The total cost of this work does
not exceed 30 million USD. From this, we could define who takes water,
and in what quantity.
r Integration of interests is based on aspiration to satisfy and understand the
requirements of others. Upper reaches require participation in terms of their
expenses for watershed maintenance and lower reaches require maintenance
of quality and ecologic releases and payment for river regime violation. All
this is fair. These unsolved issues make our management unsustainable
and subject to risk. It is impossible to opt out of these questions and it is
necessary to organize routine activity of all countries representatives and
organizations to perfect systems of water governance and management. We
should look ahead. If we do not do this we will face much greater expense
and trouble in the future.