Going the distance

As four-engine airliners disappear, a new generation of ultra-efficient single-aisle airliners is allowing a

new breed of airlines to exploit the potential for ‘long and thin’ routes, connecting far-away cities with
point-to-point travel. MARTYN CARTLEDGE reports.

When you get it right, as in the case of such airlines as Southwest, Ryanair and easyJet, the low-cost
model works really well. However, those looking to stretch their wings somewhat further have not
always managed to turn a decent profit, particularly on what might be termed ‘thin’ routes.

The topic that has dominated our lives for so long now has, as we all know too well, had an even greater
effect on the aviation and travel industries than on many others. Covid-19 all but shut down air travel
back in March 2020 and hastened the demise of many an airline, particularly those who were operating
in markets such as these.

Historical attempts

Freddie Laker’s Skytrain is a key inspiration for today’s low-cost airline models.

Whereas long routes have historically, in the main, been operated by twin-aisle aircraft with more than
two engines, particularly over large bodies of open water, it has not been completely thus. In fact, the
very first twin-engined non-stop crossing of the Atlantic was, of course, Alcock and Brown in their
Vickers Vimy, although not something that would be viable today or perhaps even contemplated. Real
changes started to happen around 1976 when the Airbus A300 started crossing the Atlantic under a 90
minute ICAO rule. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was initially less enthusiastic about this
when the then FAA director had the following response to Boeing’s request for similar: “It’ll be a cold
day in hell before I let twins fly long-haul, overwater routes.”

However, things really started to move in 1985, following the same organisation’s increase in ETOPS
time to 120 minutes (ETOPS-120). TWA operated the first ETOPS-120 service in 1985 (Boston-Paris),
Singapore with an A310 in 1986 and, perhaps even more significantly, the single-aisle Boeing 757-
operated Tucson to Honolulu in 1992 with most of the US majors following suit using their twins over
the Atlantic on services to Europe, often on routes that would not have supported a widebody. Even the
‘baby’ Airbus A318 got in on the act in 2009 on what was certainly a long route (LCY-SNN-JFK) and, in
terms of market segment and particularly available seats per flight (it was a 32 seat all business layout),
was definitely a ‘thin’ route. Witness the birth of ‘long and thin’.

Long-haul low-cost services are also not new. Freddie Laker, of course, was the trailblazer with his
‘Skytrain’ services. It took until the turn of the millennium for others to really take to the idea in
numbers – for example, Zoom, Oasis Hong Kong, Norwegian, Level, Scoot, AirAsia X and Jetstar, the
latter two being the only ones of these still operating. It just seemed too difficult to make larger aircraft
profitable, even the more efficient models currently available.

Enter the single-aisle fleets

AirBaltic is about to begin a service from Riga to Dubai. (AirBaltic)

In the early days of long-haul low-cost services there were limited options to go with, as few single-aisle
aircraft had the range required if the route was thin.

However, the increased availability of aircraft able to fly long distances non-stop started to increase with
the introduction of the Boeing MAX series and Airbus’ A321 which has gone even further with first its LR
and then XLR versions. Even the A220-100 has a maximum range of 3,450nm (6,390km). The range of
these aircraft now means that route pairings like LHR-JFK and FRA-IAD are easily within reach. The
A321XLR is not that far away from managing LHR-LAX.

Airlines, like Air Transat from Canada, started to use these aircraft types, in its case the A321LR, on
thinner routes to destinations that were previously operated by larger aircraft. Many others took the
Ryanair approach and went via secondary airports. Norwegian was an example of this, using the 737
MAX on transatlantic routes from Edinburgh, Belfast, Dublin, Cork and Shannon to New York Stewart
International Airport and Providence Airport in Rhode Island near Boston with plans for more, although
these services ultimately failed.

The Covid factor

Avelo Airlines’ 737. (Avelo)

As we know, Covid has struck a major blow to the world’s fleets, most noticeably the ultra large aircraft
like the 747 and A380, with many airlines either hastening the aircraft’s retirement or choosing to take
them out of the fleet purely because of the current situation and what they expect to happen once
Covid is hopefully under some level of control.

There are a number of reasons why these larger aircraft might find it difficult to get back into the air
with the world’s carriers. The older models are now much less efficient than more modern versions,
even if they are twins as opposed to four engined models which are an increasingly rare sight in the
skies. In the short term at least, demand for air travel is still going to be depressed with the International
Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasting that pre-Covid levels will not be reached in some markets
until 2024, with large domestic markets probably earlier.

There are some more subtle reasons in the mix also. There is an increasing awareness of people’s
personal carbon footprint which may lead to a move away from fuel-thirsty aircraft, perceived or
otherwise. It is thought that domestic travel and leisure travel might well be the drivers in the increase
in air travel which will have a reduced level of business passengers. Even as markets are opened up
there are still likely to be added costs with testing and quarantine which could again depress the
markets with individuals and businesses unwilling to pay such costs.

The use of virtual meetings forced upon companies by the inability and unwillingness to travel is likely to
have a long-term effect on how business meetings are conducted, as many companies find that this type
of meeting is not only a much cheaper option but, in some cases, actually more valuable. What all of this
means is a possible longer-term reduction in business travel. In addition, those to whom money is less of
a factor have possibly found the benefits of business jets and all the advantages this type of travel can
bring to the user. This, along with the cargo sector, has seen a huge increase in business over the last 18
months.

With the majority of premium cabins being in the widebodied fleets, this means that these profitable
cabins can no longer help subsidise less than full economy cabins further down the aircraft.

Looking to the future

A JetBlue Airways Airbus A321-231. (Colin Brown/Flickr)

What might this mean for a post-pandemic aviation industry? As previously mentioned, pre-pandemic
numbers are unlikely to be reached until around 2024 and, if demand changes in the long term, this
might mean that the industry grows in a different fashion, from a smaller base point without the need
for hundreds of seats and large business cabins. Enter the long-range single-aisle fleets with typical two
class seating of around 180-200 rather than 250-350 for a widebody.

We can already see the announcement of new routes, some of which could be considered long and thin
and operated by new-generation single-aisle aircraft. However, the well documented problems with the
737 MAX may have given a step up to operators with the A321 and at a time when smaller aircraft will
most probably form part of the post-Covid recovery strategy for operators with long-haul routes on their
wish list.

One example is Aer Lingus with its new UK division linking Manchester with points in the US and
Barbados, although only the MAN-JFK route is scheduled to be operated by the airline’s A321LRs. It
could be argued that this is not a long and thin route, although the number of seats on MAN to New
York’s airports had reduced considerably pre-Covid.Another example is JFK and JetBlue which has a large
base there and which announced a number of routes to the UK, also with its new A321LRs.

Air Transat was an early operator of the A321LR over the Atlantic and has recently completed the
longest ever commercial single-aisle flight covering 4,750 miles (7,600km) in eight hours 32 minutes
from Montreal, Canada to Athens in Greece. (The A321LR has actually flown further but in test
conditions from Male, Seychelles, the 5,466 miles (8,797km) back home to Toulouse in France in around
eleven hours.) Another new A321 long-haul service is by TAP Air Portugal from Lisbon to Montreal and
Maceió. American Airlines has also announced that it intends to use the A321LR on services from
Philadelphia to European destinations.

With the Boeing 737 MAX series slowly coming out of its enforced slumber and the largest version, the
MAX10, recently making its maiden flight, these types of routes are likely to increase. Air Canada is one
example, with a route announced again to Manchester in 2022 utilising the MAX8.

One, perhaps surprising, entrant into the long and thin marketplace is the A220. It has not got the legs
to match even the LR version of the A321 but is right there in the mix with the 737 MAX series, beating
the MAX10 while just under the MAX8/9. AirBaltic has recently announced a new route from its Riga
hub to Dubai which is scheduled to take 6hrs 45mins to cover the 2,684m (4,319km) journey. This is not
the longest route the A220 undertakes; that is Air Austral’s Reunion to Chennai pairing at 2,870m
(4,620km). However, it actually takes less time than airBaltic’s service.
Another surprising new entrant-to-be, is Norse Atlantic Airways which seems to be bucking the trend as
it aims to fill the market left by Norwegian. In fact, the similarities are quite striking, giving rise to some
commentators simply calling it Norwegian 2.0. Norse intends to offer services on the same routes using
the same aircraft; that is the actual 787s previously used by Norwegian but with ‘high cabin utilisation’.

New entrants

Wizz Air presence at the recent Dubai 2021 Air Show. (Wayne Davis/RAeS)

It is not only the existing airlines that are utilising long-distance single-aisle aircraft. There have been
quite a few other low-cost operators either starting services or making announcements of the same over
the past few months which is quite a commitment in the middle of a global pandemic that has crippled
the industry.

That said, it might not be as foolhardy as it could look at first glance. The costs of operating an airline
have fallen quite considerably with many suppliers offering discounted rates, including the big ticket
items from Boeing and Airbus. Even if these prices are still too high, there are many perfectly serviceable
aircraft sitting idly in deserts either for sale or stored by their lessor owners and consequently being
offered at attractive rates. Another resource sitting idle are experienced, trained staff, either on furlough
or redundant from failed or downsized airlines.

Many are going to be serving short to medium routes in markets where there is existing traffic but,
certainly in their eyes, enough demand for them to enter. Flyr is a typical example of this, aiming at
routes from its home in Norway to popular European destinations. PLAY is similar, although it is aiming
at filling the gap that was left when WOW ceased trading with services between Iceland, Europe and
North America with a fleet of A321s just like WOW air.

Wizz Air Abu Dhabi is yet another A321neo operator but this time the niche is that there is no low-cost
alternative in Abu Dhabi. Looking at the underserved thin routes in the US are Breeze Airways and Avelo
Airlines, with the former on longer routes utilising the Embraer E195 initially on lease, with the Airbus
A220 as the long-term preferred option. Avelo intends on focusing on shorter routes with Boeing 737-
800s.

Longer-range entrants include flypop, which has dubbed itself as ‘the UK’s only international long-haul
low-cost airline’ and recently announced that its base is to be London Stansted. The first routes are to be
to Amritsar and Ahmedabad in India. The aircraft of choice is, however, to be the Airbus A330.

Would you fly single-aisle?

Air Asia Airbus A330. (Airbus)

One question still not fully answered is the customer perception of flying long distances on a
narrowbody aircraft, something most people will associate with a trip to sunspots around three hours
away from their local airport. Will passengers feel claustrophobic or cramped? Will the very thought of
flying for six, seven or even eight hours in a single-aisle be thought of as simply ‘wrong’?

Air Transat is at pains to point out that, in fact, the economy seats in its A321s are 1.5 inches wider than
their A310s, so the perception of being cramped might be just that – a perception. In addition, the
Airbus ‘Airspace’ cabins have been designed to give a feeling of greater space, further mitigating the lack
of actual space available.

There are many questions still unanswered regarding a post-Covid recovery. However, there are options
out there with existing airlines and brave entrepreneurs ready to go long and thin.