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Inside Politics   UK general election

Rishi Sunak’s policy triumph is yet to move the dial for Tories
Framing the election as ‘Sunak vs Starmer’ may well offer the Conservatives a better chance of victory

Analysis suggests Rishi Sunak is seen as a competent leader after his renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol, but his party’s ratings remain
gloomy © AP

Stephen Bush 2 HOURS AGO

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Good morning. You can tell there’s an election round the corner. My inbox is awash with
political parties announcing the obligatory “raft of measures” to tackle this issue or clamp down
on that problem. Some thoughts on the local elections and a looming by-election in Scotland in
today’s note.

Inside Politics has its very first live event coming up on April 19 — our first birthday. More on
that below.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenkb and please
send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

Measure up
There is a spring in the Tory step in Westminster at the moment. Rishi Sunak has enjoyed his
first big policy success in the shape of the Windsor framework and a big political victory over his
internal opponents in the Conservative party. For the first time since Theresa May lost her
majority in 2017, the party has a leader who wants to govern, can govern and is successfully
making things happen as a result. Small wonder there is a feelgood factor emerging among
Conservative MPs.

Don’t forget that essentially everyone who really matters in Labour lived through the 1992
general election and fought in the 2015 election. Some of the Starmer project’s key figures had a
role in both events, which saw the Conservatives unexpectedly triumph at the polls. It really
doesn’t take anything at all for Labourites to start worrying that the next election in 2024 will
end in defeat too.

That’s the important backdrop to understand why it is there are quite so many pieces popping up
across the British press and so many talking heads saying that they feel like Sunak could or even
will win the next election.

I don’t think these pieces are without foundation. Janan Ganesh’s arguments in favour of Keir
Starmer’s approach are well made and have the benefit of being consistently held. But while
Starmer’s approach has played no small part in reviving Labour’s fortunes, the way he has done
it has left him with a reputation for shiftiness and unreliability. An election in which the frame
becomes “Sunak vs Starmer” could yet be won by the Tories.
But outside Westminster, there are some pretty bearish indicators worth remembering. The first
is that British satisfaction with the NHS is at its lowest since the National Centre for Social
Research began asking the question some 40 years ago. The second is that this has been a pretty
painful parliament as far as real-terms household incomes are concerned, and that is not going
to change unless Sunak presides over, essentially, the best two years for wage growth the UK has
ever had. Neither of these are the backdrop I would want in the run-up to an election.

Part of the problem is that Sunak’s achievements are real, but they are not yet in the field that
actually touches most voters or moves many voters. That is part of why although his own net
ratings are just 10 points off of Starmer, the Conservatives’ favourability is much, much worse
than that of the Labour party, according to IpsosMori findings last month.

(I prefer to use Ipsos because it is the UK’s oldest regular pollster. I like a long-running data set
where possible, but the pattern is broadly the same across most pollsters.)
As George Parker and Jim Pickard write in their excellent scene-setter about the looming local
elections, if the polls are anything close to right, these elections are going to be a pretty big
collision between the mood music at Westminster and the electoral reality facing both parties
right now.

All this and more will be on the agenda at our first live webinar on April 19 at 1pm BST. I’m
excited to be joined by Jane Green, professor of political science at Nuffield College, University
of Oxford, and FT journalists Miranda Green and Peter Foster, to look at the big picture likely to
shape the 2024 election outcome: the economy, Brexit, immigration, public services and
geopolitics. If you’re an FT subscriber, you can sign up for free here (please do send the panel
your questions via the link too).

Are you there, God? It’s me, Margaret

We are set for our first test of Scottish public opinion under Humza Yousaf. Margaret Ferrier,
formerly the SNP MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West and latterly an independent, faces a
30-day suspension from the House of Commons owing to her breach of Covid rules during the
peak of restrictions.

At 30 days, it is well above the threshold for a recall petition, and given that local campaigners
have generally been pretty successful at triggering these things, we should assume there will be a
by-election in her seat. It is right on the foothills of the Labour party’s target seats. Given the
current polling and given that opposition parties tend to overperform in by-elections, we won’t
learn much from this about public opinion in Scotland if Labour win it, but it will be a huge
alarm bell for Labour if they don’t.
Now try this
One of my oldest friend’s cute baby turned one yesterday, and Arsenal Women beat Manchester
City 2-1, so that was a good day. (I got the aforementioned cute baby a small toy hammer
because hitting things is his new hobby, so the weekend may have been less enjoyable for my
friend than for me.)

Other than that, I very much enjoyed Danny Leigh’s account of the past, present and uncertain
future of Warner Bros, and Jancis Robinson on Barolo, one of my best friend’s favourite wines.
(I still don’t really get what she sees in them, but I enjoyed reading about them.)

But my absolute favourite piece was Jackie Wullschläger’s account of Pablo Picasso’s current
standing in the art world. I must admit, I’m rather disappointed to learn there will be no
exhibition here in the UK to mark the 50th anniversary of his death, so will be making plans to
head to Paris instead.

Top stories today

• Suella Braverman rejects Brexit to blame for Dover delays | Hundreds of
people yesterday faced their third day of travel disruption at the Port of Dover, as
ministers insisted that the delays crossing the Channel were not linked to the UK’s
departure from the EU.

• Michelle O’Neill calls for US investment | Northern Ireland’s first minister-

designate has urged the US to “drum up” investment in the region now that Rishi
Sunak’s Brexit deal has removed a key obstacle to trade.

• Oliver Dowden addresses dealmaking | The government has promised

greater transparency over the operation of flagship legislation giving ministers the
ability to block deals on national security grounds, amid business concern that a
“black box” regime is deterring investment in the UK.

• Humza Yousaf pledges end to union | “We will be the generation that
delivers independence for Scotland,” Yousaf, Scotland’s first Muslim first minister,
as well its youngest and its first from an ethnic minority, assured SNP members
after his election victory.

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