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Name _________________ I attended this week’s lecture 0

Homework Questions for Climate and Us Week 2

Due the week of December 5

1. Past and Present Climate

The Antarctic ice sheet, which is about 3 km thick, has yielded ice cores that provide a
paleoclimate record extending back to as far as 800,000 years ago. Figure 1 below shows
temperature estimates and atmospheric CO2 data from a 400,000 year-long record from Vostok
in East Antarctica. CO2 data are derived from direct measurement of ancient air bubbles trapped
in the ice and temperature data are derived from a proxy: the isotope ratios of frozen water
molecules.

Figure 1. Ice core paleoclimate data for the past 400,000 years from Vostok, Antarctica. a)
Variations in temperature (degrees Celsius) vs. time (present day is at 0, age increases to the
right). b) Variations in atmospheric CO2 (ppm) on the same timescale. From Petit J. R. et al.
(1999)1

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Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola, J.M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappelaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., and Delmotte, M.
1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), pp. 429-436.

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A. Over the past three million years, Earth has swung between mild (warm) climate periods and
cold ones during which much of the northern hemisphere was covered in glacial ice. From the
temperature record in Figure 1a, we can see that there have been four complete ice age cycles in
the last 400,000 years, each lasting ~100,000 years on average. What is thought to be
responsible for these cycles? What are the time periods of these cycles?
What is responsible you cycles: -

varying numbers
of sun spots
111
year cycle (
-The earth's tilt on its axis
in
changing every 41,000 years
-
changes the eccentricity of the earns orbit 100,000 years
every
and
B. Study the Vostok records shown in Figure 1. precession (every 23,000
years)
(i) Describe the relationship between temperature (Figure 1a) and CO2 concentration (Figure 1b).

they have a
positive relationship. They increase
alongside
each other
(ii) What mechanism(s) might explain this relationship?
Carson dioxide is that and
greenhouse gas
a absorbs raduates

longware radiation from the sun. That increases temperature

earth-
of the

C. The planet Venus has a much higher atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases than
Earth, including CO2 which constitutes 96% of its atmosphere (as opposed to Earth’s current
0.04%). Using your knowledge of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere, which of the
following statements is/are CORRECT? Select all that apply.

O
a. Earth would not be at a habitable temperature without greenhouse gases, but the far
higher concentration of greenhouse gases in Venus’ atmosphere is one of the reasons that
Venus is uninhabitable.
O b. Greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4, and water vapor in the atmosphere absorb and re-
radiate longwave energy emitted by Venus back towards Venus, just like on Earth.
c. Greenhouse gases play a major role in amplifying temperature via negative feedback
loops in the climate system of Venus and Earth.
d. All of the above.

Explain the answer(s) you chose in 1-2 sentences:

Greenhouse
gases help make
the earn warmer
oy
absoking and
radiating longware energy use they
do their concentration is less so
on
venus, but

the earn isn't too warm

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like Venus is. Because
of
able to live on earth.
this fact, humans are
 D. Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature have resulted in many
‘deglaciation’ periods in Earth’s past (e.g., from 143,000 to 130,000 years ago). Based on what
you learned in lecture, describe in 1 - 2 sentences how the rate of changing atmospheric
CO2 concentration differs between past deglaciations over the last 800,000 years and the
period since the industrial revolution (approximately 1875 - present day).
Since the industrial veronion, the rate
of increased
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has

grown rapidly.
This is been
burning
because humans have

a drastically greater amount

of fossil fuels since then
E. As discussed in lecture, the predictability of future climate is enormously complicated by
feedbacks between different components of the climate system.

(i) In the space below, draw a feedback loop that starts with an increase in the temperature
of the Earth's atmosphere.
is reflected
arctic ice(melts) -> len light
increase temperate
I
in
is
->)
decreases
off
S
earns surface
↓
-more /so
light
more heat)
is assorted of the

(ii) Is the loop you drew above an example of a positive or negative feedback loop? Explain earth
in 1 – 2 sentences.

It is a
positive feedback loop because it
is not

cononious
self-stabilizing
in
-
It is a

cycle which the results cause the

loop to
begin all over
again

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2. Predicting Future Climate
As you have learned over the last few weeks, there are lots of different factors that influence
global climate. Trying to identify how these different factors contribute to long-term climate
change is really complicated. The data visualization at
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ highlights how these
factors have contributed to warming between the years 1880 and 2014. Navigate through the
visualization before continuing to questions 2A and 2B.

A. According to the visualization, how do natural factors contribute to recent temperature

changes compared to human factors? really
the natural do not affect the
long-term
factors
but human
temperature
a
great role
changes
in making the temperature
factors play
higher
B. Consulting the text following the visualizations, where does the data used in the different
figures come from? How were researchers able to estimate the relationship between
temperature and each of the factors highlighted?

Figure 2. Projected changes in mean global surface temperature under four emissions pathways
The observed mean global temperatures are shown in black, while the ensemble model means for
the global mean temperatures under pathways RCP8.5 (red), RCP6.0 (orange), RCP4.5 (light
blue), and RCP2.6 (dark blue) are shown over the twenty- first century. The ensemble model
spreads for the end of the century are represented by the vertical bars on the right (colored to
match the corresponding RCP time series). Temperatures are relative to the 1986– 2005
average.

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 C. Figure 2 is featured in this week's Frontiers reading, and shows temperature increases
predicted by an "ensemble" of different climate models. What do the different colored lines
represent? What could contribute to the spread in model predictions as shown on the right-
hand-side of the figure?
the lines represent different emission pathways that
produce
various outcomes
for temperatures in the
future
-

D. Based on what you learned about climate models this week, identify three factors that
could differentiate RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Greater or lesser burning of fossil fuels

· alternative
Encouragement of worldwide sources of energy by
governments
Increased
efforts to combat
deforestation
-

3. Reflections

A. As you have seen in the different units of Frontiers of Science, converging evidence plays an
important role in how scientists provide support for their hypotheses. Describe how converging
evidence relates to climate change using specific examples you learned about in this unit.
Humans have started turning more
forni fuels which

leads to CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

greater
Meanwhile, the global temperatures are
rising.
this could mean that human owning foot
fuels could be increasing
global temperatures
B. What methods of communication do you think might be most effective when speaking
about climate change with someone who considers themselves a denier?
I think above all, we must be respectful of their
beliefs and not make them
feel like I have all

think
goodsciention
the answers. I it would also be to

show them examples of times when the

have
were
right so
they
can more
faith in

Science - 5
 C. A carbon footprint is the amount of greenhouse gases that your daily routines and lifestyle
contribute to the annual atmospheric carbon budget. In this question, you will figure out your
own carbon budget in units of tons of CO2 per year, using the following steps:

1. Go to the site https://www.conservation.org/carbon-footprint-calculator#/

2. In the complete calculations for box select “Myself”
3. Fill out the US zip code box based on the zip code of your hometown
4. Answer all of the questions.
5. You will get to the final page where your carbon footprint is shown in tons CO2 per
year with the equivalent number of trees needed to offset your carbon footprint
shown.
6. After recording your carbon footprint at home, repeat steps 2 – 5 using Columbia's
zip-code (10027 or 10025)
o NOTE: If you are in a dorm, enter “apartment building, 5+ units” under the “I
live in a(n)....” question.

(i) The average annual carbon footprint for a US resident is about 16 tons CO2 per year while the
average globally is about 4 tons CO2 per year. Briefly (2-3 sentences) discuss how your carbon
footprint compares to these averages and whether this result is surprising to you or not.
My carbon footprint is 19.6 Tons which is considerably higher than the average in the
US and even much higher than the global average. It is a bit surprising to me but I
also recall that I moved between countries this year so that accounts for the flights
taken and long car road trips.
(ii) Is your carbon footprint at home larger or smaller than your carbon footprint at
Columbia? Why do you think this might be the case?
My carbon footprint at Columbia was higher. I believe it’s because my diet here is a much
more meat based and I don’t have control over the energy sources that the dorms use.

(iii) What is an action you can take today to decrease your annual carbon footprint? Based
on your expected major and career after Columbia, in what ways do you think you might
be able to help address climate change and its consequences in the future?

I could cut down significantly on my meat intake (especially beef). I could also start
shopping for most of my clothes and accessories in thrift stores. I could also dry my
clothes on a line rather than using the dryer
I think I could help promote a more plant-based diet in my hometown where it isn’t very
popular. I could also help raise awareness around Africa by finding the link between
economic instability and climate change in order to get people to care about the latter