Professional Documents
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FRM Report
FRM Report
ON
“PROJECT ON IMPACT OF CURRENCY DERIVATIVE ON
INVESTORS IN INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET”
Submitted By
Saroj Kumar Khadanga 21DM005
Satyabrata Nayak 21DM006
Nikita Barik 21DM036
Sonali Patnaik 21DM026
Subham Subhasish Jena 21DM034
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• Equities
For example, a dollar forward is a derivative contract, which gives the buyer a right & an
obligation to buy dollars at some future date. The prices of the derivatives are driven by the
spot prices of these underlying assets.
However, the most important use of derivatives is in transferring market risk, called
Hedging, which is a protection against losses resulting from unforeseen price or volatility
changes. Thus, derivatives are a very important tool of risk management.
There are various derivative products traded. They are;
1. Forwards
2. Futures
3. Options
4. Swaps
“A Forward Contract is a transaction in which the buyer and the seller agree upon a delivery
of a specific quality and quantity of asset usually a commodity at a specified future date. The
price may be agreed on in advance or in future.”
“A Future contract is a firm contractual agreement between a buyer and seller for a
specified as on a fixed date in future. The contract price will vary according to the market
place but it is fixed when the trade is made. The contract also has a standard specification so
both parties know exactly what is being done”.
“An Options contract confers the right but not the obligation to buy (call option) or sell (put
option) a specified underlying instrument or asset at a specified price – the Strike or
Exercised price up until or an specified future date – the Expiry date. The Price is called
Premium and is paid by buyer of the option to the seller or writer of the option.”
A call option gives the holder the right to buy an underlying asset by a certain date for a
certain price. The seller is under an obligation to fulfill the contract and is paid a price of
this, which is called "the call option premium or call option price".
A put option, on the other hand gives the holder the right to sell an underlying asset by a
certain date for a certain price. The buyer is under an obligation to fulfill the contract and is
paid a price for this, which is called "the put option premium or put option price".
“Swaps are transactions which obligates the two parties to the contract to exchange a series
of cash flows at specified intervals known as payment or settlement dates. They can be
regarded as portfolios of forward's contracts. A contract whereby two parties agree to
exchange (swap) payments, based on some notional principle amount is called as a ‘SWAP’.
In case of swap, only the payment flows are exchanged and not the principle amount”
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
S.NO CONTENT PAGE.NO
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
3. To study & analyze the impact of different Macro-Economic indicators on Indian Currency.
Inflation
Crude Oil Prices
Gross Domestic product (GDP)
S&P CNX Nifty
1. Study mainly concentrates on USD/INR EXHANGE RATE contracts though NSE has introduced
trading in currency futures based on
Euro(EUR)-INR
Pound Sterling(GBP)-INR
Japanese Yen (JPY)-INR exchange rates
2. The main factor that affects the USD/INR EXHANGE RATE or any other currency is the
Demand/supply dynamics for the individual currencies. However the Demand/supply dynamics is
influenced by many other factors such as interest rates, inflation, money supply, trade balance,
growth in imports, exports, capital flows, and overall economic growth in the country and global
developments.
INTRODUCTION
DEFINITION OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES
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Derivatives are financial contracts whose value/price is independent on the behaviour of the
price of one or more basic underlying assets. These contracts are legally binding agreements, made
on the trading screen of stock exchanges, to buy or sell an asset in future. These assets can be a
share, index, interest rate, bond, rupee dollar exchange rate, sugar, crude oil, soybeans, cotton,
coffee and what you have.
A very simple example of derivatives is curd, which is derivative of milk. The price of curd
depends upon the price of milk which in turn depends upon the demand and supply of milk.
Interest Rates
Common shares/stock
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INTRODUCTION TO CURRENCY DERIVATIVES
Each country has its own currency through which both national and international transactions are
performed. All the international business transactions involve an exchange of one currency for
another.
For Example,
If any Indian firm borrows funds from international financial market in US dollars for short or long
term then at maturity the same would be refunded in particular agreed currency along with accrued
interest on borrowed money. It means that the borrowed foreign currency brought in the country
will be converted into Indian currency, and when borrowed fund are paid to the lender then the
home currency will be converted into foreign lender’s currency. Thus, the currency units of a
country involve an exchange of one currency for another.
The price of one currency in terms of other currency is known as exchange rate.
The foreign exchange markets of a country provide the mechanism of exchanging different
currencies with one and another, and thus, facilitating transfer of purchasing power from one
country to another.
With the multiple growths of international trade and finance all over the world, trading in foreign
currencies has grown tremendously over the past several decades. Since the exchange rates are
continuously changing, so the firms are exposed to the risk of exchange rate movements. As a
result the assets or liability or cash flows of a firm which are denominated in foreign currencies
undergo a change in value over a period of time due to variation in exchange rates.
This variability in the value of assets or liabilities or cash flows is referred to exchange rate risk.
Since the fixed exchange rate system has been fallen in the early 1970s, specifically in developed
countries, the currency risk has become substantial for many business firms. As a result, these firms
are increasingly turning to various risk hedging products like foreign currency futures, foreign
currency forwards, foreign currency options, and foreign currency swaps.
When the underlying is an exchange rate, the contract is termed a “Currency futures contract”.
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Currency Futures Contract
In other words, it is a contract to exchange one currency for another currency at a specified date
and a specified rate in the future.
Therefore, the buyer and the seller lock themselves into an exchange rate for a specific value or
delivery date. Both parties of the futures contract must fulfil their obligations on the settlement
date.
Currency futures can be cash settled or settled by delivering the respective obligation of the seller
and buyer. All settlements however, unlike in the case of OTC markets, go through the exchange.
Currency futures are a linear product, and calculating profits or losses on Currency Futures will be
similar to calculating profits or losses on Index futures. In determining profits and losses in futures
trading, it is essential to know both the contract size (the number of currency units being traded)
and also what the tick value is. A tick is the minimum trading increment or price differential at
which traders are able to enter bids and offers. Tick values differ for different currency pairs and
different underlying.
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OVERVIEW OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN INDIA
During the early 1990s, India embarked on a series of structural reforms in the foreign exchange
market. The exchange rate regime, that was earlier pegged, was partially floated in March 1992
and fully floated in March 1993. The unification of the exchange rate was instrumental in
developing a market-determined exchange rate of the rupee and was an important step in the
progress towards total current account convertibility, which was achieved in August 1994.
The following four currency futures are allowed on the Indian exchanges.
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CURRENCY DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS
Derivative contracts have several variants. The most common variants are forwards,
futures, options and swaps. We take a brief look at various derivatives contracts that have
come to be used.
FORWARD:
A forward contract is customized contract between two entities, where settlement takes
place on a specific date in the future at today’s pre-agreed price. The exchange rate is the
time the contract is entered into. This is known as forward exchange rate or simply forward
rate.
FUTURE :
A currency futures contract provides a simultaneous right and obligation to buy and
sell a particular currency at a specified future date, a specified price and a standard quantity.
Future contracts are special types of forward contracts in the sense that they are
standardized exchange-traded contracts.
o
Swap is private agreements between two parties to exchange cash flows in the future
according to a prearranged formula.
OPTIONS:
In other words, a foreign currency option is a contract for future delivery of a specified
currency in exchange for another in which buyer of the option has to right to buy (call) or
sell (put) a particular currency at an agreed price for or within specified period.
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FUTURE TERMINOLOGY
SPOT PRICE:
The price at which an asset trades in the spot market. The transaction in which securities and
foreign exchange get traded for immediate delivery. Since the exchange of securities and cash is
virtually immediate, the term, cash market, has also been used to refer to spot dealing. In the case
of USD/INR, spot value is T + 2.
FUTURE PRICE:
The price at which the future contract traded in the future market.
CONTRACT CYCLE:
The period over which a contract trades. The currency future contracts in Indian market have one
month, two month, and three month up to twelve month expiry cycles. In NSE/BSE will have 12
contracts outstanding at any given point in time.
The last business day of the month will be termed the value date /final settlement date of each
contract. The last business day would be taken to the same as that for inter bank settlements in
Mumbai. The rules for inter bank settlements, including those for ‘known holidays’ and would be
those as laid down by Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI).
EXPIRY DATE:
It is the date specified in the futures contract. This is the last day on which the contract will be
traded, at the end of which it will cease to exist. The last trading day will be two business days
prior to the value date / final settlement date.
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CONTRACT SIZE:
The amount of asset that has to be delivered under one contract, also called as lot size. In case of
USD/INR it is USD 1000.
COST OF CARRY :
The relationship between futures prices and spot prices can be summarized in terms of what is known
as the cost of carry. This measures the storage cost plus the interest that is paid to finance or ‘carry’
the asset till delivery less the income earned on the asset. For equity derivatives carry cost is the rate
of interest.
INITIAL MARGIN:
When the position is opened, the member has to deposit the margin with the clearing house as per
the rate fixed by the exchange which may vary asset to asset. Or in another words, the amount that
must be deposited in the margin account at the time a future contract is first entered into is known as
initial margin.
MARKING TO MARKET:
At the end of trading session, all the outstanding contracts are reprised at the settlement price of that
session. It means that all the futures contracts are daily settled, and profit and loss is determined on
each transaction. This procedure, called marking to market, requires that funds charge every day. The
funds are added or subtracted from a mandatory margin (initial margin) that traders are required to
maintain the balance in the account. Due to this adjustment, futures contract is also called as daily
reconnected forwards.
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MAINTENANCE MARGIN:
Member’s account are debited or credited on a daily basis. In turn customers’ account are also
required to be maintained at a certain level, usually about 75 percent of the initial margin, is called
the maintenance margin. This is somewhat lower than the initial margin.This is set to ensure that the
balance in the margin account never becomes negative. If the balance in the margin account falls
below the maintenance margin, the investor receives a margin call and is expected to top up the
margin account to the initial margin level before trading commences on the next day.
Tick Size is the minimum tradable price movement that an exchange makes in a currency pair. For
example, 1 pip=one hundredth of 1%=0.0001.
Tick value is the change in value of 1 lot of the future contract for every tick movement.
For example; If a trader takes long position in 1lot of USD/INR currency future contract at 53.3020 &
if future price increased by 1 paisa to 53.3125, then the trader would make a profit of Rs 10 i.e. 1
pip = 0.0001 100pips = INR0.01 per USD Hence profit is 0.01*1000 = INR 10
The Bid price is the highest or the best among all prices that the buyers are willing to pay to
the seller at that particular period of time.
The Ask price is the price at which seller at the exchange are ready to sell their currency to
the buyers.
Taking a long position in currency futures means a trader will “buy” a futures contract with
the expectation that the price will rise in the future.
On the other hand taking a short position means that a trader will “sell” a futures contract
with the expectation that the price will decrease in the future.
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BASIS: Basis refers to difference between the spot rate & the future contract price
The first currency in the currency pair is referred to as the base currency & the second
currency in a currency pair is called the quote currency. In USD/INR currency pair USD- Base
currency & INR-Quote currency.
Foreign exchange quotations can be confusing because currencies are quoted in terms of
other currencies. It means exchange rate is relative price.
For Example,
If one US dollar is worth of Rs. 81.8 in Indian rupees then it implies that 53 Indian rupees will
buy one dollar of USA, or that one rupee is worth of 0.0122 US dollar which is simply reciprocal of
the former dollar exchange rate.
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HEDGING:
Exchange-traded currency futures are used to hedge against the risk of rate volatilities in the
foreign exchange markets. Here, we give two examples to illustrate the concept and mechanism of
hedging
SPECULATION:
Take the case of a speculator who has a view on the direction of the market. He would like to
trade based on this view. He expects that the USD/INR rate presently at Rs.53, is to go up in the
next two-three months. How can he trade based on this belief? In case he can buy dollars and hold
it, by investing the necessary capital, he can profit if say the Rupee depreciates to Rs.53.50.
Assuming he buys USD 10000, it would require an investment of Rs.5,30,000. If the exchange rate
moves as he expected in the next three months, then he shall make a profit of around Rs.5000. This
works out to an annual return of around 4.76%. It may please be noted that the cost of funds
invested is not considered in computing this return.
A speculator can take exactly the same position on the exchange rate by using futures
contracts. Let us see how this works. If the INR/USD is Rs.52 and the three month futures trade at
Rs.52.40. The minimum contract size is USD 1000. Therefore the speculator may buy 10 contracts.
The exposure shall be the same as above USD 10000. Presumably, the margin may be around Rs.21,
000. Three months later if the Rupee depreciates to Rs. 52.50 against USD, (on the day of
expiration of the contract), the futures price shall converge to the spot price (Rs. 52.50) and he
makes a profit of Rs.1000 on an investment of Rs.21, 000. This works out to an annual return of 19
%. Because of the leverage they provide, futures form an attractive option for speculators.
ARBITRAGE:
Arbitrage is the strategy of taking advantage of difference in price of the same or similar
product between two or more markets. That is, arbitrage is striking a combination of matching
deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market
prices..
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One of the methods of arbitrage with regard to USD-INR could be a trading strategy between
forwards and futures market. As we discussed earlier, the futures price and forward prices are
arrived at using the principle of cost of carry. Such of those entities who can trade both forwards
and futures shall be able to identify any mis-pricing between forwards and futures. If one of them is
priced higher, the same shall be sold while simultaneously buying the other which is priced lower. If
the tenor of both the contracts is same, since both forwards and futures shall be settled at the
same RBI reference rate, the transaction shall result in a risk less profit.
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COMPARISION OF FORWARD AND FUTURES CURRENCY CONTRACT
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Symbol USD/INR
Underlying USD
Monday to Friday
Trading hours
9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Two working days prior to the last business day of the expiry
Last trading day
month at 12 noon.
Daily settlement : T + 1
Settlement
Final settlement : T + 2
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BENEFITS OF CURRENCY FUTURES
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Importer Exporter
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Factors: Depreciation of INR
Increase in imports of
Demand for USD increases Appreciates Depreciates
India
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METHODOLOGY
Source of the Data Collection:- The data is colleceted through both the means of primary
and secondary data collection
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DATA INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS
Ques. Are you an active investor?
Interpretation:-
in our study we came to know that 47% of the people were active investor, whereas 53%
of the people were generally students and were not active investor
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Ques. what kind of investment you prefer the most?
Interpretation:-
From the study we can make out that, most of the people prefer secured investment like
gold/silver or fixed deposit , which can provide them sort of fixed returns and few
people investment in highly flexible market with high risk.
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Ques. What is your profit margin?
15-20%
7%
10-15%
20%
below 10%
73%
Interpretation:- the profit margin of our respondents were not that high , most of them
were below 10% , hence it is beneficial for them to invest into currency , as with low
profit margin , they can invest into something with good and secured returns
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Ques. Do you know about currency derivative as an investment option?
Interpretation:- In the whole research process, we derived that, 47% of the people were
aware about currency derivative as an investment option whereas, 53% of the people
were unaware…it means currency derivative as an investment option is growing at high
rate in terms of awareness.
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Ques. What factors that attract you to invest in currency?
good re-
turns
80%
Interpretation:-
From past 5 years currency has shown high depreciation in indian rupee vis a vis usd,
hence most of the importers and exporters have preferred currency derivative as an
option of investment as it has shown high returns & good leverages.
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Ques. where do you find yourself as currency derivative investor?
unaware
47%
partially aware
47%
Interpretation:-
Not many of our investor, were quite aware about currency derivative. Hence they were
unaware about the good returns associated with this investment option. Hence it gve us a
varied market to tap those customers too
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Ques. Do You Know About the Current Scenario Of Returns In Currency
Derivative?
Interpretation:-
33% of our respondents knew about current scenario of returns in currency derivative ,
whereas 67% of our respondents are unaware.., so we could derive that there is huge
scope for our organization to tap these unaware respondents , and tell them about the
high and secured returns in currency derivative market.
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FINDINGS
Thus higher Inflation leads to weakening of Domestic Currency.
INR has appreciated with every upward movement shown by Nifty Index over a period
of time.
People are not much aware about currency derivative as an investment option, hence
there is scope for a wider market , by creating awareness
Currency derivative is an secure investment , and from our study we could derive that
people generally prefer those investment option which has low risk and better returns
There is a limit of USD 100 million on open interest applicable to trading member who
are banks. And the USD 25 million limit for other trading members so larger exporter
and importer might continue to deal in the OTC market where there is no limit on
hedges.
In India RBI and SEBI has restricted other currency derivatives except Currency future,
at this time if any person wants to use other instrument of currency derivatives in this
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SUGGESTIONS
Currency Future need to change some restrictions it imposed such as cut off limit of 5
million USD, Ban on NRI’s and FII’s and Mutual Funds from Participating.
In OTC there is no limit for trader to buy or short Currency futures so there demand
arises that in Exchange traded currency future should have increase limit for Trading
Members and also at client level, in result OTC users will divert to Exchange traded
currency Futures.
In India the regulatory of Financial and Securities market (SEBI) has Ban on other
exporters and importers. And according to Indian financial growth now it’s become
derivative segment.
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CONCLUSION
Our research shows that , there is huge scope for new investor to invest in currency
derivative , as it provide good returns , and have safeguard investors’ money , in case of high price
fluctuations .a derivative contract makes investor secure and risk free in future , when he has to
enter into contract in near future, and price movement of currency , does not affect his business.
The currency future gives the safe and standardized contract to its investors and individuals
who are aware about the forex market or predict the movement of exchange rate so they will get
the right platform for the trading in currency future. Because of exchange traded future contract
and its standardized nature gives counter party risk minimized.
Initially only NSE had the permission but now MCX has also started currency future. It is
shows that how currency future covers ground in the compare of other available derivatives
instruments. Not only big businessmen and exporter and importers use this but individual who are
interested and having knowledge about forex market they can also invest in currency future.
Exchange between USD-INR markets in India is very big and these exchange traded contract
will give more awareness in market and attract the investors.
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APPENDICES
QUESTIONNAIRE ON INDIVIDUALS PERCEPTION TOWARDS CURRENCY DERIVATIVE
1.Name __________
2.Address _____________________________
3.E-Mail Id ____________________________
4.Contact No.____________
5.Age ________
6.occupation
Business.
Profession
service
student
Other: ______
7.IF Business
business type_________
YES
NO
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9.what kind of investment you prefer the most?
Fixed Deposit
Insurance
Mutual Fund
Equity Commodity
Real Estate
Currency derivative
Gold/ Silver
PPF/PF
Low
Medium
High
11.While investing your money ,which factors you prefer the most?
Liquidity
Low Risk
High Return
Other: (specify)__________
below -200000
200000-500000
500000-1000000
Below 10%
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10-15%
15-25%
above 25%
YES
NO
High Leverage
Good Returns
Professional Management
Other:
YES
NO
Unaware
partially aware
fully aware
18.Do You Know About the Current Scenario Of Returns In Currency Derivative?
yes
N No
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BIBLOGRAPHY
WEBSITE:-
www.sebi.gov.in
www.mcx-sx.com
www.nseindia.com
www.investopedia.com
www.worldbank.org
www.indiainfoline.com
www.indexmundi.com
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