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Article 2
Article 2
Disruptions shaping
2020-2030
Vision 2050 issue brief
Contents
Context | 3
1 Macrotrends | 6
Demographics | 7
Environment | 8
Economics | 9
Technology | 10
Politics | 12
Culture | 13
3 Disruptions | 16
Conclusion | 22
Context
In 2010, the World a dynamic operating environment. the decade. It is powerfully
Business Council This means thinking about all the demonstrating the profound,
pressures that shape the world wide-ranging – and, more
for Sustainable we live in, and that business often than not, long-lasting
Development (WBCSD) operates in, from demographics – consequences that such
released Vision 2050, a and economics, to technology and disruptions can have.
landmark piece of work politics. WBCSD partnered with
COVID-19 has triggered multiple
Volans to explore the world that
that laid out a pathway disruptive shocks and accelerated
lies ahead of us. A comprehensive
to a world in which nine research paper is available as a many of the macrotrends that we
billion people are able to companion piece to this issue had identified. It has made certain
live well, within planetary brief, offering the evidence behind things more likely and others less
likely. With both the public health
boundaries, by our attempt here to summarize
crisis and the linked economic
the macrotrends and potential
mid-century. disruptions likely to shape that turmoil still unfolding, there
operating environment over the remains a high level of uncertainty
In 2019, WBCSD decided to decade ahead. about what the full ramifications
revisit its Vision 2050 work – 10 of COVID-19 will be for the decade
years on, there has not been as As with any look into the future, ahead. But the macrotrends
much progress made along the caveats are required! This issue and disruptions covered in this
Vision 2050 pathway as required. brief, and the research behind it, is summary have not suddenly gone
WBCSD is working together with not a set of forecasts, predictions away. In many cases, COVID-19
40 member companies to update or scenarios. We are not trying may serve merely to accelerate
the pathway to reflect some of the to put a particular spin – positive or intensify them. It is therefore
great changes that have unfolded, or negative – on the analysis. essential that we continue to
to bring the pathway in line with the The point is to take a clear-eyed consider the bigger picture at
Sustainable Development Goals view of what the 2020s might the same time as planning the
(SDGs), and to prioritize the critical have in store, so that we can responses and eventual recovery
actions that business can take to develop more effective strategies from the current crisis.
unlock the progress required for for how to respond and make
progress on Vision 2050. We will WBCSD is issuing a separate issue
the kinds for transformations that
need strategies that harness the brief that looks in greater depth at
our Vision 2050 demands.
momentum created by trends that the implications of the COVID-19
From the moment we decided can act as tailwinds; and we will pandemic, both in terms of the
to update Vision 2050, we knew need strategies that are resilient macrotrends and disruptions laid
we needed to think about what and adaptive in the face out in this paper, and more broadly
the next 10 years might throw of inevitable headwinds. with regard to lessons learned
at business. Not just in terms from past recoveries and therefore
of sustainability challenges: we One such headwind is the how business should respond to
wanted to explore more generally COVID-19 pandemic. Just this crisis.
what the world would look like, like most other forecasts of
and consider how that would recent years, we had identified
affect business’ ability to operate a pandemic as something that
successfully (so that they can also the world would be ill-equipped
operate sustainably). to deal with were it to occur, not
to mention something that was
Our collective ability to deliver actually quite likely to occur.
on Vision 2050 (9+ billion people And yet, we too find ourselves
living well, within planetary stunned by the arrival of the
boundaries) is dependent on our COVID-19 global public health
ability to understand and navigate crisis in the first weeks of
1 2 3 4 5
FINANCIAL GLOBAL MAJOR AN ECONOMIC SOCIETAL
CRISIS PANDEMIC CONFLICT “SINGULARITY” “TECHLASH”
How much will COVID- No country is fully Cyber attacks, e.g. on What happens when Society sours on the
19 cost, and how will prepared to handle a critical infrastructure new jobs can’t be costs of free tech,
we pay when the next pandemic, and neither will touch all ordinary created where jobs treasuries tire of lost
crisis comes? are any economies. citizens in a conflict. have been destroyed? taxes and competition.
6 7 8 9 10
POPULAR REVOLTS A CLIMATE ENERGY TRANSITION BIOTECH GLOBAL GREEN
& REGIME CHANGE “MINSKY MOMENT” TIPPING POINT BOOM (NEW) DEAL
Inequality will continue Costs, disclosures, Market forces lead to Disruption comes to Citizens embrace the
to rise making more social pressures all fossil fuel demand food, health and chance to improve
frequent and severe reorient financial flows peaking and the energy materials as biotech’s jobs, communities
protest likely. – but how fast? transition accelerates. potential emerges. and environments.
66 Macrotrends
Macrotrends and
and Disruptions
Disruptions shaping
shaping 2020-2030
2020-2030 Vision
Vision 2050
2050 issue
issue brief
brief
DEMOGRAPHICS
The global population is growing, ageing and urbanising. By 2030, there will be more
than a billion over 65s: 12% of the global population, up from about 8.5% in 2015. Two-
thirds of us will live in cities – and a growing number, particularly in Africa and Asia, in
megacities (though megacities are expected to account for less than 10% of the total
urban population). Migration – both within and between countries – is also increasing.
Globally, those born after 1980 now free market capitalism than their
outnumber those born earlier. A predecessors who grew up during
generational handover of political, the Cold War.
cultural and economic power is
already underway and will continue The countries with the largest
throughout the 2020s. Increasingly, Millennial cohorts are all in Asia,
tensions between the different the Middle East and Africa: India
generations are likely to bubble alone has 385 million Millennials.1
to the surface. These reflect the Conversely, the countries with
different formative experiences the largest Baby Boomer cohorts
of different cohorts. For example, are in Europe, North America and
those who came of age around the Oceania: by 2030, roughly 30% of
time of the 2007-8 financial crisis the population of Europe will be
tend to be much more skeptical of over 60.2
1
https://www.kearney.com/web/global-business-policy-council/article/?/a/where-are-the-global-millennials-
2
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p95-16-1.pdf
3
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/where-the-water-wars-of-the-future-will-be-fought
As these multiple, interlinked crises deepen, so the political and cultural appetite
for change grows. Public awareness and concern about ocean plastics and climate
change surged in the late 2010s. Over the decade ahead, we can expect to see more
voters and consumers prioritising environmental issues – particularly where there
is a strong, direct link to their own health, as with air quality.
4
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/water-scarcity-one-of-the-greatest-challenges-of-our-time
5 https://cebr.com/reports/a-world-recession-is-now-almost-a-certainty-with-global-gdp-set-to-decline-twice-as-much-as-during-the-
financial-crisis-the-challenge-now-is-to-prevent-the-recession-from-turning-into-a-1930s-style/
6 https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-2958-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
7 https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-trends-2017
8 https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-trends-2017
THE POLITICS OF tend to get more conservative 2. Millennials and Gen Z are a
GENERATIONAL HANDOVER with age, there is a good chance destabilizing force due to high
(MACROTRENDS 1 & 9) this trend will be less pronounced levels of disaffection with the
amongst those currently under status quo. In this scenario,
The demographic rise and fall 40, precisely because they have their influence makes politics
of generations is a constant in been economically squeezed and more extreme and polarized;
human society, so what makes know that, on current trajectories, compromise, coalition-building
the generational handover that will they will live out their old age in a and multilateralism all become
unfold during the 2020s notable? world severely disrupted by climate harder.
Old and young always see the change and biodiversity loss.
world differently, but, in some 3. Millennials and Gen Z become
important ways, the interests and The political consequences of this the electoral bedrock
opinions of today’s old and young particular generational handover of effective progressive
are further apart – and potentially in could therefore be profound – but it governments, which prioritize
greater tension with one another – is not certain how this will play out issues like economic
than in previous decades. during the 2020s. There are three reform and addressing
plausible scenarios: climate change. In this
For Millennials and Gen Z, their scenario, they channel their
formative years have been 1. Millennials and Gen Z fail to dissatisfaction into advocacy
dominated by the fallout from register as a significant political for governmental interventions
the 2007-8 crash – and now the force during the decade – that address social inequality
COVID-19 pandemic. They have because they “fall in line”, don’t and environmental damage.
grown up with the awareness that turn out at elections reliably
climate chaos in their lifetimes is enough and/or because From the perspective of Vision
highly likely unless radical changes they are too fragmented. In 2050, scenario 3 is clearly the
to the global economy this scenario, the 2020s are most favorable. Crucially though,
are implemented. dominated by the increasingly it requires both businesses and
conservative politics of the governments to demonstrate that a
This context has resulted in many baby boomers. Another credible reformist alternative exists.
Millennials and Gen Z being deeply variation of this scenario
disenchanted with the status quo involves Millennials in particular
(including with ‘capitalism’) – though simply being “skipped”, as
there are exceptions to this, notably boomers continue to cling to
in fast-growing economies such power all around the world.
as Indonesia. While all generations This could lead to a rapid rise
in the influence and power of
Gen Z, as they mobilize in order
to avoid being left behind in the
same way as the millennials
before them.
16 Macrotrends
16 Macrotrendsand
andDisruptions
Disruptionsshaping
shaping2020-2030
2020-2030Vision
Vision2050
2050issue
issuebrief
brief
Disruptions
The first few months of 2020 have powerfully demonstrated that wildcard
disruptions do happen – and can have profound consequences. When we first
compiled this list in late 2019, the term “wildcard” seemed appropriate for a global
pandemic. Not so much anymore.
The decade ahead will doubtless In the slightly longer term, Finally, while COVID-19 may in
have more wildcards in store. Not COVID-19 may also have the short term have distracted
everything on this list will come increased the likelihood of a global leaders from dealing with
to pass during the 2020s, but all tipping point for the global energy climate change, it may also have
are plausible enough that they transition arriving during the 2020s wrought a lasting shift in citizens’
warrant thinking about and, to the (indeed some analysts now believe expectations about the role of
extent possible, preparing for. Not that fossil fuel demand may have government in responding to
all are bad – and, even those that peaked in 2019),9 which could in crises and intervening in economic
are have the potential to catalyze turn trigger a sudden correction life to ensure outcomes that
positive changes, just as previous in the way financial markets price benefit society. Combined with the
crises have. climate risk (disruptions 7 & 8). need for major public investment
to stimulate economic recovery,
As with the macrotrends, there The fact that the tech giants will this could create the conditions
are many potential interlinkages almost certainly emerge from for something like a Global Green
between these disruptions. the current economic crisis (New) Deal to emerge during the
Domino effects – where one in an even stronger position 2020s (disruption 10).
disruption triggers others – are relative to (potential) competitors
one possibility. For example, we may increase the plausibility In short, while none of this is
are currently living through a global of a regulatory backlash later guaranteed, the COVID-19
pandemic (disruption 2) that may in the decade (disruption 5). pandemic could yet act as a
yet trigger a financial crisis, mass Meanwhile, increased awareness trigger for every single other
unemployment, a major conflict of the links between agriculture, disruption on this list during the
and/or popular uprisings that lead deforestation, biodiversity loss and decade ahead.
to regime change (disruptions 1, 4, the risk of zoonotic pandemics
3 & 6 respectively). like COVID-19 could provide a Please note, we have issued
following wind for the biotech a separate Vision 2050 issue
industry, accelerating the shift brief exploring the long-term
in food production from land to consequences of COVID-19
laboratory (disruption 9). in more depth.
9
https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/
2. GLOBAL PANDEMIC
3. MAJOR CONFLICT
5. “TECHLASH”
In the two decades since the ownership are on the rise, though
dotcom bubble burst, the tech governments are not always
sector has had an easy ride. as concerned about privacy as
Societies have embraced new their citizens are. Competition
technologies with minimal enforcement has become an
hesitation and regulators have increasingly hot topic in the EU
thrown relatively few roadblocks and the US. New rules about the
in the way of tech companies legal status of “gig economy”
doing what they want. That may workers and the responsibilities
now be changing. There is rising of social media companies for
disillusionment and dissatisfaction the content they host could
in many countries with the way undermine the viability of platform
digital technologies are being used business models. And then there’s
to serve the interests of a narrow the impact of geopolitical rivalry:
economic and/or political elite. the furore over Huawei could be a
Consumers are more aware of the foretaste of things to come, with
negative impacts of technology governments blacklisting foreign
on health and wellbeing. firms and alliances strained as a
Concerns about privacy and data result of having to pick sides.
Rising inequality within countries and will be: the 2010s saw a dramatic
a perceived lack of responsiveness decline in the success rates of
from political elites is fueling a nonviolent campaigns demanding
diverse set of (mostly non-violent) systemic political change.10 But
protest movements around the there is no guarantee that this trend
world. Given that the underlying will continue: as citizens become
causes of these popular uprisings angrier and more disaffected, we
look set to worsen during the could see seemingly stable political
2020s, it is highly likely that both the regimes across the world either
frequency and severity of protests toppled or forced to act much more
against the status quo will rise. The strongly in response to citizens’
vital unknown is how effective they demands.
10
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316474594_Trends_in_Nonviolent_Resistance_and_State_Response_Is_Violence_
Towards_Civilian-based_Movements_on_the_Rise
11
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_the_speed_of_the_energy_transition.pdf
12
https://www.generationim.com/sustainability-trends/sustainability-trends-2019/
Just like the 2000s, the 2010s US, Brazil, Australia) since the Paris
finished with a disappointing Agreement, and the continued
set of climate talks (COP15 in resistance of states like Russia and
Copenhagen in 2009; COP25 Saudi Arabia. While the latter are
in Madrid in 2019). But there is a likely to remain resistant to climate
significant chance that the 2020s policy action for the foreseeable
will see a breakthrough in global future, there is every chance that,
climate policy action – though post-Trump, the US will step (back)
whether or not this will happen into a leadership role on global
through the mechanisms of the climate action during the 2020s.
Paris Agreement or not remains Across the globe, citizen activism
an open question. From the EU’s is likely to be a key driver of political
Green Deal to South Korea’s action – and the steady drumbeat
announcement of a net-zero target, of extreme weather events will
momentum is building in large keep climate change high in public
economies across the world. This consciousness and on the political
is despite unfavorable political agenda for most governments.
shifts in some key countries (e.g.,
13
https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture
This issue brief was developed WBCSD is a global, CEO-led This publication has been
as part of our work to update organization of over 200 leading developed in the name of
WBCSD’s Vision 2050, a businesses working together WBCSD. Like other WBCSD
project that is being driven to accelerate the transition to publications, it is the result
forward with the support of a sustainable world. We help of a collaborative effort by
40 WBCSD members. The make our member companies members of the secretariat
underlying research and the more successful and sustainable and senior executives from
issue brief itself were produced by focusing on the maximum member companies. A wide
in partnership with Volans, positive impact for shareholders, range of members reviewed
supported by interviews with the environment and societies. drafts, thereby ensuring that the
Vision 2050 project members. It document broadly represents
was reviewed by the Vision 2050 Our member companies come the perspective of the WBCSD
Refresh project’s External Review from all business sectors and all membership. Input and feedback
Committee and we thank them major economies, representing a from stakeholders listed above
for their valuable contributions. combined revenue of more than was incorporated in a balanced
USD $8.5 trillion and 19 million way. This does not mean,
employees. Our global network however, that every member
of almost 70 national business company or stakeholder agrees
COORDINATORS councils gives our members with every word.
unparalleled reach across the
WBCSD: Julian Hill-Landolt,
globe. Since 1995, WBCSD has
Robin Nelson, Jacqui Machin
been uniquely positioned to
Volans: Richard Roberts work with member companies Copyright
along and across value chains
to deliver impactful business Copyright © WBCSD, May 2020.
solutions to the most challenging
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