Sector Update

Automobiles
Stellar show

Summary
Sector: Automobile
Š Led by pre-buying and seasonality, CV and tractor player reported strong growth on m-o-m.
View: Positive Š M&M outperformed its peers in domestic PV market.
Š Key surprises: (1) TVSM and MSIL reported 40.5 % and 75.0% increase in export sales on m-o-m basis
and (2) with 31.7% m-o-m growth, HMCL have reported volumes above 5 lakh units.
Coverage universe
Š Preferred Picks –
CMP
Company Reco PT (Rs) OEMs: Ashok Leyland, M&M, Maruti, TVS Motors and Tata Motors.
(Rs)
Auto Ancillaries: Amar Raja Batteries, Bosch, Greaves Cotton, Lumax Auto Technologies, Schaeffler
Alicon Castalloy India and Gabriel India.
704 BUY 1,159
Limited #

Amara Raja Batteries 587 BUY 696 OEMs clocked strong numbers in March as most players in our coverage reported volumes that
beat our estimates. CV and tractor players were expected to report strong volumes, while TVSM
Apollo Tyres 323 BUY 372 and MSIL have surprised in export volume performance. Further HMCL has reported volumes above
five lakh units after a gap of five months. We believe festive season during last 8-10 days of month,
Ashok Leyland 141 BUY 181 seasonality and pre buying before the implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms from April have
supported the wholesales in March, while retails have been partially impacted due to inauspicious
Bajaj Auto 3,994 BUY 4,151 period in beginning of the month (Holashtak) and unseasonal rains.
Š CV segment continue to outperform: The CV segments continue to report robust set of numbers,
Balkrishna Industries 1,942 Hold 2,163 given ALL, TML, VECV and M&M reported 28.8%, 28.1%, 63.3% and 6.9% m-o-m growth in volumes
respectively in March. The growth in CV volumes, supported by traction in core industry, partial
Bosch BUY 21,929 return of replacement demand and seasonality. Along with that, the anticipated price hike due to
19,264 implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms from April has drove pre-buying in CV segment.
Eicher Motors 3,002 BUY 3,579 Š M&M outperformed its peers in domestic PV market: Despite healthy demand as seen in the
robust order book the wholesales uptick in March was relatively at slower pace, given MSIL was
Escorts Kubota 1,872 Positive 2,278 facing production constraint in certain models. MSIL’s production came down by 3.6% m-o-m to
154,148 units in March 2023. Further dealers have been indicating for a slow movement in entry-
Exide Industries $ 180 BUY 215 level products and high waiting period in high end-products. In March, M&M has outperformed
its peers in domestic market. In domestic market while M&M and TML reported 18.6% m-o-m
Gabriel India 140 BUY 217 and 2.8% m-o-m increase in sales, MSIL reported 10.4% m-o-m decline in sales. While MSIL has
reported decline in domestic sales, it reported highest-ever monthly export volumes in March.
GNA Axles 804 BUY 1,121 MSIL reported 9.8% m-o-m decline in domestic volumes (including supper carry) and 75% m-o-m
increase in export volumes and hence its total volumes declined by mere 1.3% m-o-m.
Greaves Cotton 131 BUY 183 Š EV segment: Momentum continued: The legacy players continue to do well in EV segment. Most
of the players have been constructive on the growth prospects in the EV segment. This was the
Hero Motocorp 2,434 BUY 3,006 consecutive second month when TVSM has sold more than 15,000 electric scooters. In March
TVSM registered 1.0% m-o-m decline in electric scooter sales to 15,364 units. For Tata Motors,
Lumax Auto
278 BUY 288 this was the consecutive fourth month when it reported m-o-m increase in EV sales and now its
Technologies#
monthly EV volume surpassed 6,500 units. In March 2023 TML sold 6509 electric cars compared
M&M @ $ 1,172 BUY 1,550 to 5,318 units in February 2023.
Š BSVI phase 2 norms implemented from April: The implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms
Mahindra CIE
361 Positive 457 from April 2023 would increase manufacturing cost for OEMs, which they are passing on to the
Automotive
customers. Effective from April 2023 (1) TML is increasing prices by 5% in CV segment, (2) HMCL
Maruti Suzuki 8,500 BUY 10,965 is increasing prices upto 2% and (3) MSIL is increasing prices by 0.8%. While the implementation
of new norms is translating into a cost pressure for OEMs, it would enhance growth opportunities
Ramkrishna Forgings 282 BUY 329 for powertrain solution players such as Bosch on possible increase in content per vehicle. It is
estimated that Bosch would have an opportunity to increase content per vehicle by 1.6x/1.8x in
Schaeffler India 2,902 BUY 3,328 MHCV/ LCV segment on implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms compared to the content per
vehicle during BSIV emission norms.
Sundram Fasteners # 993 BUY 1,110 Sector view
Suprajit Engineering # 345 BUY 403 Despite challenges in the rural segment, unseasonal rain and price hikes OEMs have reported strong
numbers in March 2023. Maruti and TVSM surprised on export volumes front, while HMCL reported
Tata Motors # 424 BUY 516 total volumes above 5 lakh units after September 2022. Going forward the rural recovery is key things
to watch out as rural segment drives the performance of the domestic motorcycle segment. While
TVS Motors $ 1,085 BUY 1,303 tractor segment has been registering strong volume growth trend, the growth is likely to moderate
in coming year due to high base. Similarly, OEMs are guiding for a 5-7% growth in PV segment in
VST Tillers and FY24 due to high base. A focused and balanced approach towards EV projects is helping the legacy
2,394 Neutral 2,445
Tractors Limited players in building up a markable presence in EV segment as most of the listed OEMs are preparing
@ MM & MVML; # Consolidated; vigorous plans for EV segment, which can survive even on withdrawal of the subsidy support. Export
$ core business valuation; UR Under Review volumes are expected to improve from Q1FY24 onwards.
Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates Preferred picks: Among OEMs, we largely prefer four-wheeler over two wheelers as two-wheeler
space is still at the improvement stage. Ashok Leyland is expected to benefit from the ongoing upsurge
in CV segment. While historically M&M’s growth was largely driven by the tractor segment, however
Price chart now the automotive segment is also contributing significant portion to the operating performance.
Maruti is expected to regain its market share on successful launch of new products. Despite weakness
180.0 in export volume, we believe increasing traction in its EV business augurs well for TVS Motor. Tata
160.0 Motors is assumed to register improvement in all three key segments (domestic PV, CV and JLR) on
improvement in semiconductor chip supplies. We like Bosch due to its technology leadership and rise
140.0 in content per vehicle on implementation of new emission norms. Amara Raja is expected to be a key
beneficiary of improvement in replacement demand in battery segment and probable value unlocking
120.0
in its EV related projects. The performance of Greaves Cotton in expected to improve on revival of
100.0 its EV business. Lumax Auto Technologies is expected to be benefitted from its new acquisition and
likely increase in its revenue mix. Schaeffler India is improving its export revenue mix and increasing
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21

Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22

Jan-23
Mar-23
Sep-21

Sep-22
Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-21

Nov-22

Nifty 50
Source: NSE India, Sharekhan Research
localization to improve overall profitability. We like Gabriel India due to its focus on EV projects and
inorganic growth opportunity.
Nifty Auto
Key risks
Our forecasts can be affected if semiconductor chip shortage (in premium segment) and geopolitical
situation aggravates or gets delayed along with deterioration in macros.

April 03, 2023 1

 Sector Update
Valuation
EPS P/E (x)
Company CMP Reco PT (Rs)
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E
Alicon Castalloy Limited # 704 BUY 1,159 15.0 34.6 59.7 46.9 20.4 11.8
Amara Raja Batteries 587 BUY 696 29.9 36.8 44.9 19.6 15.9 13.1
Apollo Tyres 323 BUY 372 10.1 15.4 23.8 31.8 21.0 13.6
Ashok Leyland 141 BUY 181 1.8 3.3 6.6 76.4 42.8 21.5
Bajaj Auto 3994 BUY 4,151 162.6 197.2 225.8 24.6 20.3 17.7
Balkrishna Industries 1942 Hold 2,163 73 61 76 26.6 31.7 25.6
Bosch 19264 BUY 21,929 413 491 644 46.7 39.2 29.9
Eicher Motors 3002 BUY 3,579 61 103 122 48.9 29.2 24.6
Escorts Kubota 1872 Positive 2,278 73.0 58.7 75.4 25.0 31.0 24.8
Exide Industries $ 180 BUY 215 9 11 12 16.2 16.1 14.5
Gabriel India 140 BUY 217 6 9 13 22.5 15.3 11.0
GNA Axles 804 BUY 1,121 41 59 68 19.4 13.5 11.8
Greaves Cotton 131 BUY 183 -2 3 6 NA 39.3 21.1
Hero Motocorp 2434 BUY 3,006 124 135 172 19.7 18.0 14.2
Lumax Auto Technologies# 278 BUY 288 12 15 18 23.6 19.0 15.7
M&M @ $ 1172 BUY 1,550 43 62 71 22.1 15.4 16.5
Mahindra CIE Automotive 361 Positive 457 10.4 18 22 30.0 17.4 16.8
Maruti Suzuki 8500 BUY 10,965 256 346 392 33.2 24.6 21.7
Ramkrishna Forgings 282 BUY 329 15 21 27 18.8 13.7 10.3
Schaeffler India 2902 BUY 3,328 40 56 66 72.1 51.6 44.2
Sundram Fasteners # 993 BUY 1,110 24 33 42 41.2 30.0 23.7
Suprajit Engineering # 345 BUY 403 11 14 20 30.4 23.9 17.1
Tata Motors # 424 BUY 516 -28.0 4.6 32.8 NA 92.2 12.9
TVS Motors $ 1085 BUY 1,303 32 42 47 32.8 24.9 23.3
VST Tillers and Tractors Limited 2394 Neutral 2,445 96 124 153 24.4 18.9 15.7
@ MM & MVML; # Consolidated; $ core business valuation; UR Under Review; Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates

April 03, 2023 2

 Sector Update
OEM’s volume performance in March 2023 – above estimates

Š Ashok Leyland (ALL): Volumes – March 2023 – above estimates: ALL reported 18.9% y-o-y and 28.8%
mom increase in volumes to 23,926 units (against estimate of 19,500 units).

Š Eicher Motors: Volumes- March 2023 - RE: in line with estimates, VECV : above estimates: Royal Enfield
reported 6.7% y-o-y and 1.0% mom increase in volumes to 72,235 units (against estimate of 72,000 units).
VECV reported a 103.3% y-o-y and 63.3% mom increase in volumes to 11,906 units (against an estimate of
7,800 units).

Š Escorts Kubota (EKL): Volumes- March 2023 - above estimates: EKL reported 2.3% y-o-y and 31.9% mom
increase in total volumes to 10,305 units (against estimate of 7,900 units).

Š Hero MotoCorp (HMCL): Volumes- March 2023 - above estimates : HMCL reported 15.4% y-o-y and 31.7%
mom increase in total volumes to 519,342 units (against estimate of 420,000 units).

Š M&M: Volumes – March 2023 – above estimates: Automotive segment reported 21.0% y-o-y and 12.4%
mom increase in sales to 66,091 units (against estimate of 62,350 units). Tractor segment reported 17.6%
y-o-y and 35.8% mom increase in sales to 35,014 units (against estimate of 29,000 units).

Š Maruti Suzuki (MSIL): Volumes- March 2023 - above estimates: MSIL reported 0.2% y-o-y and 1.3% mom
decline in total volumes to 170,071 units (against estimate of 157,000) on the back of robust performance
in export volumes. While domestic volumes declined by 2.7% y-o-y and 9.8% mom, the export volumes
increased by 13.7% y-o-y and 75.0% mom.

Š Tata Motors (TML) : Volumes – March 2023 – above estimates: TML reported 1.7% y-o-y and 14.2% mom
increase in volumes to 91,048 units ( against estimate of 84,800 units). PV segment registered 4.1% y-o-y
and 2.5% mom increase in volumes to 44,225 units, while CV segment registered 0.5% y-o-y decline but
28.1% mom increase in volumes to 46,823 units.

Š TVS Motors (TVSM) : Volumes- March 2023 - above estimates: TVSM reported 3.0% y-o-y and 14.8%
mom increase in volumes to 317,152 units (against an estimate of 280,000 units) led by strong recovery in
export volumes on a mom basis. Domestic sales increased by 22.1% y-o-y and 8.7% mom. Export declined
by 31.6% y-o-y but increased by 40.5% mom.

April 03, 2023 3

 Sector Update
Segment wise performance
PV segment: M&M outperforms the pack
Š In March M&M has outperformed its peers in domestic market, given M&M has reported the highest growth
in m-o-m basis compared to TML and MSIL.
Š Given most of the players have been receiving healthy order book the growth momentum would be
maintained in PV segment albeit at lower pace due to high base.

Domestic PV segment - volumes

Company Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
Maruti* 1,35,928 1,40,102 -3.0 1,51,738 -10.4
M&M 35,997 27,603 30.4 30,358 18.6
Tata Motors 44,044 42,293 4.1 42,862 2.8
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

CV segment: Uptick continue

Š CV segment, as expected performed strongly in March due to seasonality and prebuying -ahead of
implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms, given vehicle prices are increasing by 3-5% in CV segment on
implementation of new norms.
Š All the key players have reported healthy growth in March on m-o-m basis.
Š TML has witnessed healthy demand in heavy truck segment from infra, e-Commerce, construction, and
mining segment. Further replacement demand was also robust during the month.

CV segment - volumes
Company Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
Ashok Leyland 23,926 20,123 18.9 18,571 28.8
Tata Motors 46,823 47,050 -0.5 36,565 28.1
Eicher (VECV) 11,906 5,856 103.3 7,289 63.3
M&M 22,282 19,837 12.3 20,843 6.9
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

Tractor segment: strong performance on m-o-m despite high base

Š While unseasonal rain in some parts of the country has hit retail sales but the wholesales remain strong in
March 2023.
Š Going forward the moderation in growth is likely due to high base and strong volume performance in last
2 years.

Tractor segment - volumes

Company Mar 23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
M&M 35,014 29,763 17.6 25,791 35.8
Escorts 10,305 10,074 2.3 7,811 31.9
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

April 03, 2023 4

 Sector Update
Two-wheeler segment : HMCL showed decent performance
Š Despite headwinds and challenges, two wheeler players have performed relatively better in March 2023.
Š Mass market players like HMCL and TVSM have performed better than premium market player – Royal
Enfield.

Total Two wheeler segment - volumes

Company Mar 23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
Hero Motocorp 5,19,342 4,50,154 15.4 3,94,460 31.7
TVS Motor 3,07,559 2,92,918 5.0 2,67,026 15.2
Eicher 72,235 67,677 6.7 71,544 1.0
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

Domestic volumes: CV, tractor and HMCL outperformed

Š OEMs reported a wide divergence in domestic volume growth trend in March 2023
Š Except Royal Enfield and Maruti Suzuki, all players in our coverage have reported m-o-m increase in
volumes.
Š Despite high base CV players and tractor players have reported strong double-digit growth on m-o-m
basis, partially supported by pre buying and seasonality.
Š Hero MotoCorp reported strong double-digit growth on m-o-m basis on the back of low base.

Domestic volumes trend

Company Mar 23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
Hero Motocorp 5,02,730 4,15,764 20.9 3,82,317 31.5
Eicher Motors (RE) 59,884 58,477 2.4 64,436 -7.1
TVSM 2,42,115 1,98,230 22.1 2,22,745 8.7
Ashok Leyland 22,885 18,556 23.3 17,568 30.3
Tata Motors CV 45,307 44,425 2.0 35,144 28.9
Tata Motors PV 44,044 42,293 4.1 42,862 2.8
M&M Tractors 33,622 28,112 19.6 24,619 36.6
M&M Automotive 63,976 51,483 24.3 56,551 13.1
Maruti 1,39,952 1,43,899 -2.7 1,55,094 -9.8
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

Export volumes: MSIL, TVSM and RE outperformed

Š In contrast to expectations, OEMs performed better in export markets.
Š Despite a challenging environment, leading exporters like – TVSM, Royal Enfield, MSIL have reported
strong growth on m-o-m basis in March 2023.

Export volumes trend

Company Mar 23 Mar-22 YoY (%) Feb-23 MoM (%)
Hero MotoCorp 16,612 34,390 -51.7 12,143 36.8
Eicher Motors (RE) 12,351 9,200 34.3 7,108 73.8
TVSM 75,037 1,09,724 -31.6 53,405 40.5
Ashok Leyland 1,041 1,567 -33.6 1,003 3.8
Tata Motors CV 1,516 2,625 -42.2 1,421 6.7
Tata Motors PV 181 173 4.6 278 -34.9
M&M Tractors 1,392 1,651 -15.7 1,172 18.8
M&M Automotive 2,115 3,160 -33.1 2,250 -6.0
Maruti 30,119 26,496 13.7 17,207 75.0
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

April 03, 2023 5

 Sector Update
Company-wise performance for March 2023
Maruti Suzuki Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

Dom PV 1,39,952 1,43,899 -2.7 1,55,094 -9.8 17,06,811 14,14,277 20.7

Exp PV 30,119 26,496 13.7 17,207 75.0 2,59,333 2,38,376 8.8

Total Sales 1,70,071 1,70,395 -0.2 1,72,301 -1.3 19,66,144 16,52,653 19.0

M&M Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

PVs 35,997 27,603 30.4 30,358 18.6 3,59,253 2,25,895 59.0

CVs & 3W 27,979 23,880 17.2 26,193 6.8 3,07,106 2,07,196 48.2

Total Dom 63,976 51,483 24.3 56,551 13.1 6,66,359 4,33,091 53.9

Exp 2,115 3,160 -33.1 2,250 -6.0 32,107 32,510 -1.2

Total Auto 66,091 54,643 21.0 58,801 12.4 6,98,466 4,65,601 50.0

Tractor 35,014 29,763 17.6 25,791 35.8 4,07,545 3,54,698 14.9

Total Sales 1,01,105 84,406 19.8 84,592 19.5 11,06,011 8,16,916 35.4

Tata Motors Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

CV 46,823 47,050 -0.5 36,565 28.1 4,13,539 3,56,843 15.9

PV 44,225 42,466 4.1 43,140 2.5 5,41,163 3,70,563 46.0

Total Sales 91,048 89,516 1.7 79,705 14.2 9,54,702 7,27,406 31.2

Escorts Kubota Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

Total Sales 10,305 10,074 2.3 7,811 31.9 1,03,290 94,228 9.6

Ashok Leyland Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

MHCV 16,773 13,990 19.9 12,668 32.4 1,24,109 73,885 68.0

LCV 7,153 6,133 16.6 5,903 21.2 68,096 54,441 25.1

Total Sales 23,926 20,123 18.9 18,571 28.8 1,92,205 1,28,326 49.8

Eicher Motors Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

CV 11,906 5,856 103.3 7,289 63.3 79,623 61,680 29.1

2W Royal Enfield 72,235 67,677 6.7 71,544 1.0 8,34,895 6,02,268 38.6

Hero Motocorp Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

Total Sales 5,19,342 4,50,154 15.4 3,94,460 31.7 53,28,546 49,44,150 7.8

TVS Motors Mar-23 Mar-22 YoY(%) Feb-23 MoM(%) FY23 FY22 YoY(%)

2W 3,07,559 2,92,918 5.0 2,67,026 15.2 35,12,954 31,37,703 12.0

3W 9,593 15,036 -36.2 9,124 5.1 1,71,609 1,71,875 -0.2

Total Sales 3,17,152 3,07,954 3.0 2,76,150 14.8 36,84,563 33,09,578 11.3
Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates; ^ Monthly runrate

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

April 03, 2023 6

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