Engineering Failure Analysis 45 (2014) 278–282

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Engineering Failure Analysis

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/engfailanal

Comparative analysis of failure probability for ethylene cracking

furnace tube using Monte Carlo and API RBI technology
Wenhe Wang a,b,c, Kaiwu Liang a, Changyou Wang a, Qingsheng Wang b,c,⇑
a
College of Safety Engineering, Chongqing University of Science & Technology, Chongqing 401331, PR China
b
Boots & Coots Center for Fire Safety and Pressure Control, Department of Fire Protection & Safety, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
c
School of Chemical Engineering, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Ethylene cracking furnace tube is one of the most critical components in the petrochemical
Received 15 April 2014 industry to crack molecules at high temperature. The furnace tube degrades easily during
Received in revised form 2 June 2014 operations which would cause equipment failure and lead to serious consequences, such as
Accepted 21 June 2014
fire and explosion. In this work, a quantitative analysis of failure probability for the ethyl-
Available online 16 July 2014
ene cracking furnace tube is performed using the Monte Carlo method and API Risk-Based
Inspection (RBI) technology. The results have shown that the operation life of ethylene
Keywords:
cracking furnace tube under interaction of creep and carburization is less than that under
Failure probability analysis
Risk assessment
creep, and the failure probability calculated based on API RBI technology is lower than that
Cracking furnace tube using the Monte Carlo method. Moreover, the comparative analysis results prove further
Monte Carlo method that creep and carburization are two main failure modes of the furnace tube rupture.
Risk-based inspection Therefore, it is very necessary to provide reliable data to perform risk assessment and
inspections on ethylene cracking furnace tube.
Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

It is well known that an ethylene cracking furnace is important equipment in an ethylene plant [1]. The furnace tube is the
most critical component which cracks molecules in the presence of a catalyst at high temperature (approximatively 1000 °C)
[2]. Due to long-term exposure to high temperature, the microstructure of furnace tube material is subjected to degradation.
Although sufficient considerations have been taken in material selection, equipment design and plant operations, failures of
furnace tube can hardly be avoided [2,3]. In general, failures of furnace tube can occur in a variety of modes, such as over-
heating, stress corrosion cracking, creep, fatigue and so on [2,4]. The furnace tube probably would be damaged by these fac-
tors and the damage will result in cracking, break, and melting. This may cause leakages of high temperature media and lead
to fire and explosion [1–4].
Failure probability analysis is an essential part of risk assessment for chemical process equipment [5,6]. To prevent acci-
dents caused by failure of furnace tube, it is important to calculate its failure probability [7,8]. There are several different
calculation methods available, such as the first order second moment method, the response surface method, and the Monte
Carlo method [9–15]. In this work, the Monte Carlo method and API Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) technology are applied to

⇑ Corresponding author at: Boots & Coots Center for Fire Safety and Pressure Control, Department of Fire Protection & Safety, Oklahoma State University,
Stillwater, OK 74078, USA. Tel.: +1 405 744 5508; fax: +1 405 744 6758.
E-mail addresses: wangwenhe518@gmail.com (W. Wang), qingsheng.wang@okstate.edu (Q. Wang).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2014.06.024
1350-6307/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 W. Wang et al. / Engineering Failure Analysis 45 (2014) 278–282 279

calculate the failure probability of an ethylene cracking furnace tube in a petrochemical plant. The results are compared with
each other to provide reliable data for risk assessment and to ensure a safe operation of the furnace tube at a longer period.

2. Methodology

2.1. Based on Monte Carlo method

The Monte Carlo method is also called a statistical test method or a random simulation method which can construct a
probability model artificially. The probability model can generate random numbers to meet all physical parameters and
develop relations between probability of random parameters and mathematical equations. The Monte Carlo method is a
broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. Typically,
one runs simulations many times over in order to obtain the distribution of an unknown probabilistic entity. Currently,
the Monte Carlo method is widely used to calculate reliability of chemical process equipment [8]. In this case, the random
variables (Xi) that affect furnace tube life include inner wall temperature Ti, outer wall temperature To and operation pressure
Pi (a gauge pressure). Their sampling values are in a normal distribution and can be obtained using Eqs. (1)–(3) [11]:

T i ðnÞ ¼ T i þ u1  r1 ð1Þ

T o ðnÞ ¼ T o þ u2  r2 ð2Þ

Pi ðnÞ ¼ Pi þ u3  r3 ð3Þ

where Ti(n), To(n) and Pi(n) are inner wall temperature, outer wall temperature and operation pressure sampling values
under a normal distribution, respectively; u1, u2 and u3 are the sampling values of variables also in a normal distribution;
r1, r2 and r3 are standard deviations.
Cumulated life-span fraction value is known as an evaluation criterion of the cracking furnace tube according to Larson–
Miller method and life theory [14,15]. In this work, creep fracture damage analysis was used to determine the life of furnace
tube. Cracking points which locate on outer wall of furnace tube start to crack from outside to inside when the life-span frac-
tion of the outer wall is greater than the critical life-span fraction value. The life of furnace tube is terminated when the
cumulated life-span fraction value of furnace tube outer wall reaches the critical creep fracture damage value. The critical
life-span fraction value is used as a criterion and the failure probability of furnace tube is computed at certain reliability
[14]. When the cumulated life-span fraction value reaches the critical life-span fraction value, the furnace tube is considered
as rupture by creep.
The failure limiting condition equation of furnace tube can be written as Eqs. (4) and (5) according to the stress and
strength interference model [8,15]:

FðtÞ  F cr < 0 ð4Þ

XM  
DL
FðtÞ ¼ ð5Þ
i¼1
Li

where F(t) is life-span fraction for furnace tubes at time t (h), Fcr is critical life-span fraction value, M is sample number, Li is
rupture life-span under stress and temperature T, DL is operation period. In this case, the parameters of the cracking furnace
tube are shown as follows [16]. The material of furnace tube is HP–Nb series casting. Its microstructure is eutectic carbide
and austenite, with internal radius Ri = 46.95 mm and external radius Ro = 56.95 mm. The operation parameters of the eth-
ylene cracking furnace tube are: operation pressure Pi = 0.106 MPa, inner wall temperature Ti = 838 °C and outer wall tem-
perature To = 1050 °C.

2.2. Based on API RBI technology

The API RBI technology can be used to manage overall risk of a plant by focusing on inspection of process equipment with
the highest risk. The calculation of risk involves the determination of failure probability combined with consequence of fail-
ure [17]. Failure probability based on API RBI technology is analyzed according to the failure mechanism of the equipment
(fluid medium, material and process parameters, etc.) [5,17]. In the procedure of assessment, a very important step is to cal-
culate future failure probability based on generic failure frequency and damage factor for adjusting the failure frequency in
the incident database.
The generic failure frequency is a failure probability developed for a specific component based on a large population of
component data that does not include the effects of specific damage mechanisms. The damage factor adjusts the generic fail-
ure frequency based on the active damage mechanisms the component is subject to. The damage factor considers the sus-
ceptibility to the damage mechanisms and/or the rate at which the damage accumulates. The damage factor also considers
historical inspection data and the effectiveness of both past and future inspections [17].
280 W. Wang et al. / Engineering Failure Analysis 45 (2014) 278–282

In API RBI, a combination is used to evaluate the probability of failure in terms of a generic failure frequency and damage
factor [17], and technical module subfactor is considered as damage factor adjusting the generic failure frequency in this
case. Therefore, failure probability of furnace tube can be combined directly by multiplying the generic failure probability
of long-term creep and the technical module subfactor [18–20]. API RBI provides four hole sizes to model the release scenar-
ios covering a full range of events (i.e., small to rupture), and the generic probability of failure for heating furnace tube are
available as shown in Table 1 [17]. In our work, all the results are evaluated on the basis of the hole size of one inch and all
the dimension of the probability is in per year.
The mean Larson Miller parameter of cracking furnace tube material, Lmavg, can be described as [16]:

Lmav g ¼ 65:05956  2:17933 ln S ð6Þ

 
P i Di
S¼ 1 ð7Þ
2 DR

where S is stress of furnace tube (MPa), which can be obtained using Eq. (7). Di and DR is internal diameter and wall thick-
ness of furnace tube respectively. At current operation condition, the Larson Miller parameter lm can be calculated by using
the following equation [17]:
 
T MT þ 460
lm ¼ ðLogt i þ CÞ ð8Þ
1000

where TMT (°F) is metal temperature of furnace tube in operation, it is generally determined as a process temperature adding
100 °F; ti is total time in service and C is the material coefficient. The technical module subfactor of long-term creep can be
expressed as following equations [17]:

X ¼ ðLmav g  lm Þ=LMdelta ð9Þ

3
þ0:2854X 2 0:5905X0:3001
F LT ¼ minð1; 100:6723X Þ ð10Þ

F TMSFLT ¼ 0:55e13F LT ð11Þ

where LMdelta is the average difference between the mean and minimum Larson Miller curves in API RP530; FLT is failure coef-
ficient; FTMSFLT is the technical module subfactor of long-term creep which can be computed using Eqs. (9)–(11).

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Failure probability analysis by Monte Carlo method

Research has shown that the furnace tube is generally considered as a component of the ethylene cracking furnace with
the highest risk; moreover, creep and carburization are two main failure modes of furnace tube according to failure mode
and effect analysis (FMEA) of the equipment [8]. In this work, the furnace tube was selected from an ethylene cracking fur-
nace in a petrochemical plant, and the failure probability of furnace tube under creep and interference of creep and carbu-
rization were calculated. Cumulated life-span fraction value is judged by the Monte Carlo method. The failure probability of
furnace tube with different operation times can be obtained [8,15,20] (where operation pressure Pi is normally distributed
and its variation coefficient is 0.1; Ti and To are the temperatures of internal and external walls respectively, which are nor-
mally distributed and its variation coefficient is 0.01; number of the sample is 10,000). Failure probability (per year) at a cer-
tain life-span value is shown in Table 2.
The results from Monte Carlo simulations show that after initial low values, the failure probability (per year) increases
significantly with the increasing of operation time and reaches a rather constant value. Figs. 1 and 2 are plotted before they
reach the constant values to clearly show the relationship between failure probability and operation time. From the figures,
regarding 5% of failure probability as the ultimate life-span, the service life of furnace tube with the different operation con-
ditions (under creep and under interaction of creep and carburization) is about 16.3 and 6.4 years respectively. Furthermore,
the results also indicate that carburization is one of the main failure modes of furnace tube.

Table 1
Generic probability of failure for heating furnace tube.

Hole size (in.) Probability of failure (long-term) per year

1/4 0
1 4.62E6
4 1.32E6
Rupture 6.60E7
 W. Wang et al. / Engineering Failure Analysis 45 (2014) 278–282 281

Table 2
Failure probability for furnace tube at a certain life-span.

Probability of failure for furnace tube (under creep) Probability of failure for furnace tube (under creep and carburization)
Operation time (h) Probability of failure per year Operation time (h) Probability of failure per year
72343.4 0.000E+0 33141.9 0.000E+0
81533.2 4.999E4 38049.0 4.999E4
91637.2 2.499E3 43538.0 2.900E3
142454.6 3.30E2 55914.9 5.041E2
149751.9 5.041E2 64005.9 8.079E2
158088.7 7.030E2 72343.4 0.1611E+0
193353.7 0.2732E+0 91637.2 0.4135E+0
257296.4 0.3675E+0 102716.7 0.5498E+0
308128.4 0.4256E+0 128060.0 0.7893E+0
398103.4 0.5522E+0 142454.6 0.8669E+0
468072.4 0.7095E+0 158088.7 0.9209E+0
506257.5 0.8178E+0 193353.7 0.9759E+0
634445.1 0.9864E+0 281842.3 0.9990E+0

0.08
Probability of failure per year

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

60000 90000 120000 150000 180000

Operation time (hour)

Fig. 1. Relationship between probability of failure and operation time of furnace tube (under creep).

0.4
Probability of failure per year

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Operation time (hour)

Fig. 2. Relationship between probability of failure and operation time of furnace tube (under interaction of creep and carburization).

3.2. Failure probability analysis based on API RBI technology

Based on material properties of ethylene cracking furnace tube and its operation condition in this case, some computa-
tional parameters are shown as follow: LMdelta = 0.3, C = 57 and TMT = 2984.72 °F. Creep was considered as the main failure
mode for furnace tube failure. Therefore, we only consider the creep condition when using API RBI technology. Generic fail-
ure probability of ethylene cracking furnace tube that refers to the generic failure frequency of heating furnace tube has been
provided in Table 1. Long-term annual failure probability of the ethylene cracking furnace tube under creep can be deter-
mined by generic failure probability and technical module subfactor of ethylene cracking furnace tube as shown in Table 3.
282 W. Wang et al. / Engineering Failure Analysis 45 (2014) 278–282

Table 3
Failure probabilities of ethylene cracking furnace tube (under creep).

Hole size (in.) 1 4 Rupture

Failure probability per year of heating furnace tube (long-term) 4.62E6 1.32E6 6.60E7
FTMSFLT 0.55
Failure probability per year of ethylene cracking furnace tube 2.54E6 7.26E7 3.63E7

The results of Fig. 1 and Table 3 are compared with each other because they are both under the same condition of only creep.
The failure probability of ethylene cracking furnace tube based on the API RBI technology is lower than that using the Monte
Carlo method. For example, at 5% failure probability the ultimate life-span of furnace tube is reached, the operation time is
about 150,000 h from Fig. 1 (the Monte Carlo method). However, based on the API RBI technology, when the operation time
is about 150,000 h, the failure probability is about 0.0045 (0.45%). Therefore, the API RBI method is more conservative which
predicts a much longer safe life of ethylene cracking furnace tube.

4. Conclusions

Failure probability analysis for ethylene cracking furnace tube based on the Monte Carlo method and API RBI technology
has been introduced in this work. It is concluded that failure probability of ethylene cracking furnace tube under interaction
of creep and carburization is larger than that under creep. The work provides necessary failure probability data for risk
assessment of the cracking furnace tube. In the situation that failure probability is 5%, the furnace tube operation life is about
6.4 years under interaction of creep and carburization, which is much less than the operation life under creep (16.3 years).
Moreover, the failure probability of ethylene cracking furnace tube calculated based on API RBI technology is lower than that
using the Monte Carlo method. The results testify further that creep and carburization are two main reasons for the cracking
furnace tube rupture.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 51304259 and 51254001), the China
Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2012M511418) and the Fund of Chongqing University of Science & Technology
(CK2010B17 and CK2013Z03). Authors would like to thank the support from Boots & Coots Center for Fire Safety and Pres-
sure Control at Oklahoma State University, USA.

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