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ENERGETIKA. 2018. T. 64. Nr. 2. P.

74–83
© Lietuvos mokslų akademija, 2018

Investigation of dynamic electricity line rating


based on neural networks

Levente Rácz, The security of supply with a high level of operational safety
and security has a prominent role in the domestic and interna-
Bálint Németh tional electricity networks. Due to continuous growth of con-
sumer demand, the integration of renewable energy sources
Budapest University of Technology and other related changes in the market issues, a number of
and Economics, problems and challenges with the operation and utilization of
Egry József St. 18, the existing network have been identified. The need for a high-
1111 Budapest, Hungary er level of transmission capacity for the transmission network
Email: racz.levente@eszk.org is one of the major challenges in the electricity network.
Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) is a new generation of transfer
capacity methods that can provide a cost-effective solution for
the security of supply problems without re-planning the exist-
ing infrastructure background. The currently used Static Line
Rating allows operators to calculate transfer capacity deter-
mined by the worst-case of the weather conditions on the wires
of a particular transmission line. Whereas practical applicabil-
ity shifts to security, the result of this calculation method is
almost 95% of time less than the real permissible load of the
overhead lines. This potential can be exploited with the DLR by
always adjusting the maximum current that can be transmitted
on wires. These maximum current values are calculated from
the real-time environmental conditions, thus the DLR does not
only provide better security of supply, but also a higher level of
availability.
The main issue of the article is to investigate the DLR based
on the application of non-analytic computational methods
different from the current calculations of the international
standards (CIGRE, IEEE). The aim of this research is to create
a neural network capable of recognizing patterns based on the
weather data of previous years and the actual current values
of the wires. In this way, it is not only possible to fine-tune,
but also accelerate the applied calculation of maximum load
capacity.

Keywords: Dynamic Line Rating, transfer capacity, overhead


lines, soft computing, neural networks
Investigation of dynamic electricity line rating based on neural networks 75

INTRODUCTION DYNAMIC LINE RATING

Nowadays more and more high voltage over- It is important to mention that Dynamic Line
head lines (OHL) are heavily loaded due to the Rating is a promising option for existing infra-
increased power flow caused by cross-border structures but cannot substitute the grid de-
trading and far located renewable energy sourc- velopment. According to researches and existing
es. Thus, the Transmission System Operators applications, the exploitation of the grid can be
(TSO) in many countries require development better by taking the advantages of DLR.
of the existing network. However, the construc-
tion of new transmission lines could be com- Advantages of DLR
plicated due to strict legal regulation, not to Two main advantage of DLR is increased ca-
mention the extremely high investment costs. pacity and improved safety of the system. As
According to these phenomena there is a gener- an additional benefit, DLR helps to increase the
al need to use the existing transmission system stability of the transmission network. At present,
infrastructure more intensively. For this better the N-k-1 principle is in force, where N means
exploitation of the grid, Dynamic Line Rating elements of the grid and k means the elements
(DLR) could be a promising and cost-effective under maintenance. According to this principle,
option [1–3]. the stability of the system has to be maintained
It is widely known that the transmission sys- in case of another malfunction in the grid. How-
tem’s capacity is calculated based on Static Line ever, with the application of DLR, it is possible
Rating (SLR), which means that the maximum to determine alternative energy transport paths.
ampacity of the overhead lines is determined It is also important to mention that while the de-
from the worst case scenario of weather para- sign and the construction of new transmission
meters. The main advantage of replacing SLR lines are quite expensive, the use of DLR is a
by DLR is that DLR uses real-time current from cost-effective method for the TSOs [4].
the SCADA (Supervisory control and data ac- Application of DLR has many other advan-
quisition system) and also real-time meteoro- tages: real-time load calculation, transmission
logical parameters to exploit the real permissi- capacity forecasting, increased system reliability
ble capacity of the wires. Moreover, it is possible and reduced risk of extreme weather conditions.
to involve weather forecast’s data into calculat- On the other hand, under certain conditions the
ing algorithms to assign the maximum load of application of DLR could give rise to surplus
the OHLs. By calculating transfer capacity with thermal loading over the stability limit or induce
DLR, the maximum ampacity of the transmis- too high reactive power losses that cannot been
sion lines is 10–30% higher in more than 95% of compensated with available regular methods.
the time which is highly significant [1–3]. All in all, DLR has several different advantages,

1200
1000 DLR
SLR
800
Ampacity, A

600

400

200
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Time, h

Fig. 1. Maximum ampacity in case of DLR and SLR


76 Levente Rácz, Bálint Németh

but some basic issues have to be carefully con- and CIGRE model. These DLR models have been
sidered before its application can be applied to constantly evolving over the years thanks to new
each OHL [3, 4]. experiences and research. Literature containing
the basics of the Dynamic Power Line (IEEE 738
Existing applications and CIGRE 601 WG B2.43) has been revised sev-
The aim of DLR is safety utilization of the ex- eral times and the next edition of the current edi-
isting transmission system’s capacity based on tion is being edited.
real conditions in which the power line oper- It is important to mention that calculation of
ates. There are several forms of DLR applied DLR is a demanding method, due to it two differ-
by the TSOs in the transmission system. One ent problems have to be separated: determination
of these applications is the so-called seasonal of the weakest span and calculation of the DLR
DLR, when the maximum ampacity of the wires value. The weakest span represents the critical
is calculated for both summer and winter peri- part of the transmission line so that it determines
od to exploit the extra capacity of the existing the thermal current limit for all spans has been
grid for the half of the year. In our article, DLR performed.
refers to the method of dynamic transmission Both IEEE and CIGRE models are based on a
line loadability, in which the chargeability of the heat equation. On one side, the heat gain, while
wire is continuously calculated in real time. This on the other side, the heat losses are listed [1]:
method requires a lot of measured data and it is
important to note that these required data need PJ + PS = PC + Pr, (1)
to be real-time ones. Calculation of the capacity
of the wire is performed by a complex algorithm where
whose input parameters are the physical charac- PJ is Joule heating [J],
teristics of the wire, the temperature of the wire, PS is solar heating [J],
the ambient temperature, the wind speed, the PC is convective cooling [J], and
wind direction, etc. The purpose of this paper Pr is radiative cooling [J].
is to present the currently accepted calculation The main disadvantage of such an empirical
algorithm of DLR and its replacement by a new model is that it takes a long time to finalize it. The
black box model containing neural network, results provided by this algorithm make it possi-
analyzing its errors and benefits [2]. ble to use the model, but there are many ways to
improve the calculation methods to achieve even
Standard models more accurate results. In the present case, the ac-
There are two worldwide known models in use curacy of these models was researched, but many
to determine the ampacity via DLR: IEEE model results show their deficiencies.

Fig. 2. Factors influencing DLR [1]


Investigation of dynamic electricity line rating based on neural networks 77

One weakness of current models is that at rithms by using conclusions, heuristic approaches,
different wind speed values the DLR results are and adaptation of human problem solving [6, 7].
quite different. Moreover, model (1) is a sim- In order to determine which soft computing
plified model that contains many neglects (e.g. varieties should be in use, it is necessary to look
electromagnetic phenomena, crown effect loss- at how each of these options handles existing
es, etc.), and these models are not able to take knowledge, data, the implication mechanism
into account the cooling effect of the precipita- and whether they have the ability to implement
tion [5]. learning and optimization tasks.
The aim of this research is to apply a neutral
network capable of recognizing patterns based Neural networks
on weather data of previous years and actual Due to properties of each method, only the neural
current values of the wires. In this way, it is not networks and genetic algorithms can be applied
only possible to fine-tune, but also accelerate for this new black box model since the goal is
the applied calculation of maximum load ca- to create a trained system based on previous ex-
pacity and deal with the neglections of IEEE and amples. Neural networks are computing systems
CIGRE models. By using the so-trained neural based on human brain. This kind of networks are
network it could be possible to replace the cur- able to detect objects and patterns, and solving
rently used empirical models. problems associated with them on a large number
of data sets [8].
APPLICABILITY OF SOFT COMPUTING First of all, it can be concluded that neural net-
METHODS works work with relatively unstructured knowl-
edge, mostly with data series and data sets. This
For problems where the solving algorithm is existing knowledge is treated numerically. Due to
unavailable or very complex, intelligent mod- this numerical knowledge, there is no possibility
elling and calculation procedures are required. for logical operations or relationships to be real-
In these situations, the experience, intelligence, ized, but there are also concluding mechanisms in
individual perception and problem solving skills this case. By the use of neural networks an analo-
of engineers, namely soft computing, are put to gous, associative-based conclusion is given to the
the fore. In contrast to hard computing methods, desired result [9].
the soft calculation methods are less stringent, Considering learning and optimization, neu-
the inputs and algorithms are much more subtle, ral networks are in a favourable position com-
thus better able to handle uncertainty, inaccura- pared to other soft computing types. Based on
cy and approximations [6, 7]. sample recognition and associative-based conclu-
Based on the above considerations, in some sions, the network can learn, recognize patterns
problem-solving cases the use of artificial intelli- in data and, in some cases, optimize them.
gence-based methods can lead to results. Such ar- Overall, it can be concluded that the use of
tificial intelligence-based systems include expert neural networks can be used to induce DLR an-
systems, neural networks, fuzzy systems, genetic alytic, numerical calculations. Using a new black
algorithms, probability arguments and other intel- box model with the neural network it is possible
ligent agents. These systems can be much easier to to determine the maximum allowable current on
solve than conventional analytic, numerical algo- the transmission line from weather parameters [9].

Fig. 3. Intelligent agents and DLR


78 Levente Rácz, Bálint Németh

Fig. 4. The structure of a general neural


network

Data available for the new black box model formed by direct measurement in the point on
DLR calculations require a huge amount of data. phase conductor. The deviation of the sensor is
Available data can be split into two large groups. ±2°C.
On the one hand, there is a need for weather
forecasting, as it is possible to estimate the en- SIMULATIONS
vironmental parameters on which to determine
the maximum flow and the maximum sag. On In order to expose the applicability of the inves-
the other hand, real-time measurements are also tigated black box model, simulations were car-
needed to determine the parameters of the trans- ried out with different types of neural networks
mission line load in real time. in MATLAB. Via simulation, the structure of the
For weather forecasts, the forecasted data of network was also amended to find out the opti-
existing weather stations are in use. Via the fore- mal result.
cast, an estimated value, such as temperature,
solar radiation, wind direction, speed, etc. gets Identification of a new black box DLR model
available. However, it is important to mention The main goal of simulation is to substitute the
that types and accuracy of weather forecasts are existing DLR calculating methods with the use of
quite diversified. This neural network model does a new black box model. There are two main steps
not include forecasted data, yet. in simulation, calculation of the line temperature
Sensors installed on the transmission line are with neural networks and after it determination
used to correctly record the data measured in real of the maximum ampacity of the line in the weak-
time. The installed sensors measuring ambient est span.
parameters at specific intervals are able to deter- The background of the black box model is
mine, by analytic, numerical methods, the maxi- the following: a sensor is installed on the line
mum value of the current that can be transferred that monitors the temperature of the wire in real
through the wire. Most sensors measure the tem- time. There is also real-time information about
perature of electric line, but there are devices that the solar radiation, the wind and the ambient
are able to monitor the angle of the lines horizon- temperature from weather stations. According
tally, which makes it easier to determine the sag. to real-time line measurement, measured tem-
In this case 3 weather parameters (solar radiation, perature of the line contains all environmental
wind, ambient temperature), the SCADA current effects even those that are neglected in IEEE and
and the temperature of the line formed the group CIGRE models. Knowing real-time and the max-
of real-time data [10, 11]. For the simulations imum temperature of the line, the extra allowa-
mentioned below, an OTLM sensor was applied ble Joule heating could be calculated from a sim-
on the OHL. Temperature measurement was per- ple heat equation. However, not all OHLs have
Investigation of dynamic electricity line rating based on neural networks 79

a temperature measurement sensor on them- in numerical form with the so-called activation
selves, so calculation of the real-time line temper- value. During the teaching process, information
ature can be executed via use of neural networks activation functions extend from neuron to neu-
after a training method. ron, thereby modifying the weights and thresh-
In order to carry out simulations, nominal olds in the system, i.e. free parameters. This way,
and load data of a high-voltage transmission internal context of the system can be modified to
system running in a Central European country reach more accurate output values [9].
have been carried out. The two-phase, nominal The conductor temperature problem to be solved
voltage level of the transmission line system is can be defined with an error minimization equa-
110 kV, its location is continental, that is, sea- tion [6]:
sonal periodicity of environmental parameters
can be distinguished and icing on the transmis-
sion line cannot occur during summer time. , (2)
The tested wire type is Al/ACS 240/40 mm2, one
insulator is used per phase on the transmission where
line, while the maximum permissible tempera- Remp(w)– is empirical risk functional,
ture of the wire cannot rise over 40°C due to the – –
xi, w are free parameters of the system, and
limitation of the sag. di is the desired response to an –
xi vector.
According to attributes of the neural net-
Parameters of the neural network works, the defined problem can be solved with
There are several types of neural networks de- feedforward neural networks with n-dimension
pending on each parameter. Basically, two large variables, where n means the number of in-
groups can be distinguished: forward and back- puts. Using earlier results, a cascade type neu-
ward neural networks. Neural networks are usu- ral network belonging to the group of feedfor-
ally structured as follows: there is a certain num- ward networks was applied in the model. The
ber of inputs and a number of hidden layers, process of learning was chosen to be the Leven-
one output layer, and usually one output. Based berg-Marquardt mechanism since this method,
on the analogy with the human body, the net- unlike other mechanisms, is able to locate the
work contains any number of neurons, which in minimum error gradient even if it is far from
some cases are also called perceptron. These are the initial minimum value. In the system itself, 4
the smallest structural units of the system that layers were added, 3 of them are hidden and 1 is
process information in conjunction with each the output layer. Four neurons in the first layer,
other, and their internal states can be described 32–32 neurons in the second and third layers,

Fig. 5. The structure of the chosen neural network


80 Levente Rácz, Bálint Németh

and only 1 neuron in the last output layer should because both the temperature of the wire and the
be located. actual current value indicated by the SCADA are
In previous modelling, it was experienced directly measured values, meaning it is possible
that the limit is around at four layers, where the to see how the environmental parameters collec-
increased duration of teaching is more domi- tively modify the temperature generated by the
nant than a slight change in the accuracy of the real-time current of the wire.
output result. For the simulation, more than 60
neurons were set up for increasing free para- Learning method, validation and testing
meters of the system. During simulation, environmental parameters
During the simulation, one part of the input in every 30 minutes of each day of March to Oc-
parameters was the environmental parameters tober were used, so thousands of learning points
and the other part was the current transferred were available for the system to realize the ap-
through the wire. However, not all of the avail- propriate learning process. The reason for this
able environmental parameters were used for was to eliminate weather conditions typical of
simulation. During the model, the air humidity, each season. For the learning method, about
pressure and wind direction were not taken into 80% of the information was set to teach, while 10
account. For the first two parameters, previous and 10% for validation and testing. The teach-
simulation experiences have shown that their ing mechanism was carried out by modifying
use do not significantly increase accuracy in the free parameters, i.e. changing the weights and
model, while due to a large number of emerg- thresholds in the system. The end of the teach-
ing issues in the wind direction, it was better ing method was achieved by reaching a pre-set
to ignore this parameter from the initial mod- gradient minimum.
el. Thus, a total of 3 environmental parameters In Fig. 6 the black dots represent teaching,
– wind speed, air temperature, and solar radi- validation and testing data. The coloured lines
ation – served as the input of the network. For (the blue, green and red ones) on the graphs
later runs, it would be worth considering the display the desired result for the network. These
wind direction and the amount of precipitation lines serve as the most appropriate linear regres-
as possible input due to their prominent cooler sion lines between the outputs and the targets.
effect. The R value indicates the strength of the relation
In addition to the 4 input parameters, in all between the targets and outputs. If R = 1, it in-
cases the output parameter was the wire temper- dicates that outputs and targets are nearly linear.
ature measured by an installed sensor. From the According to Fig. 6 training of the networks was
point of view of DLR, this is a favourable case successful.

Training: R = 0.98054 Validation: R = 0.97532 Testing: R = 0.97817


Output~ = 0.97 Target + 0.67

Output~ = 0.97 Target + 0.81

Output~ = 0.97 Target + 0.63

Target Target Target

Fig. 6. The training, validation and test of the neural network


Investigation of dynamic electricity line rating based on neural networks 81

RESULTS One of the main goals of the electricity sys-


tem is to use the maximum capacity of the net-
Based on the simulations carried out, the neural work besides security. Accordingly, there is a re-
network is able to calculate the temperature of the alistic need for the model to be able to determine
wire with an error of under 7%, based on the actual the value of the current that can be carried out
current and environmental parameters. This 7% of through the wire by the environmental para-
the error can be accepted because this rate means meters. As a second step, knowing the current
about 1–2°C difference in the temperature, which temperature of the line, the maximum ampacity
roughly coincides with the accuracy of sensors. of the system can also be calculated from a heat
In Fig. 7 the test of the network is presented. equation.
During teaching, intentionally, the last days of 6 In Fig. 8 the maximum ampacity of the line
months did not appear among the elements. The calculated from CIGRE model, compared to the
data of these last days were applied during this ampacity value calculated from the neural net-
testing, meaning this test was under real circum- work black box model is presented. As 2 curves
stances. In Fig. 7, therefore, the line temperatures are similar, it can be stated that the initial black
of the last days of the 6 months were compared box model is applicable for DLR calculation on
to the results provided by the neural network. As the transmission lines. However, it is necessary
it is shown, the curve deriving from the neural to develop the black box model in order to ob-
network follows the expected sensor values. tain better results.

40
Sensor on the wire
30 Neutral network
Temperature, °C

20

10

0
May June July August September October
Term (last day of the month)

Fig. 7. The temperature of the wire as a function of time

1200
1000
800
Ampacity, A

600
400
CIGRE model
200 Black Box model (Neutral network)
0
May June July August September October
Term, months

Fig. 8. DLR value of the last days of the 6 months as a function of time
82 Levente Rácz, Bálint Németh

CONCLUSIONS ering AC corridors and multi-Terminal HVDC


Systems”.
It can be stated that in the designation of DLR, Supported BY the ÚNKP-17-2-I New Natio-
an analytical numerical method that calculates nal Excellence Program of the Ministry of Hu-
the maximum allowable current value from the man Capacities
environmental parameters in the transmission
system can be replaced by using soft computing
methods. Based on the structure and numeric
values of available data, the use of neural net-
works seems to be useful for obtaining results.
This is reinforced by the fact that the system thus
designed should be able to analyse the relation-
ships between previous data series, the input and
output values, and to deduct the correct conclu-
sions from these. This means, in essence, that the Received 1 March 2018
Accepted 15 May 2018
system must be able to learn, which is possible
in soft computing methods mainly through the
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perduoti laidais. Šios didžiausios srovės vertės apskai-
Levente Rácz, Bálint Németh čiuojamos pagal realaus laiko aplinkos sąlygas, todėl
dinaminis linijos įvertinimas ne tik užtikrina geresnį
DINAMINIS ELEKTROS LINIJOS
tiekimo saugumą, bet ir aukštesnį leistinumo lygį.
PRALAIDUMO VERTINIMAS NEURONINIŲ
Pagrindinis straipsnio tikslas yra pateikti dinaminį
TINKLŲ PAGRINDU
linijos įvertinimą, pagrįstą neanalitiniais skaičiavimo
S antrauka metodais, kitokiais nei dabartiniai skaičiavimai pagal
Tiekimo saugumas, užtikrinantis aukštą režimų pati- tarptautinius standartus (CIGRE, IEEE). Šio tyrimo
kimumo ir saugumo lygį, yra svarbi dedamoji vidaus tikslas – sukurti neuroninį tinklą, galintį atpažinti ap-
ir tarpsisteminiuose elektros tinkluose. Atsižvelgiant į krovų grafikus, remiantis ankstesnių metų orų duome-
nuolatinį vartotojų paklausos didėjimą, atsinaujinan- nimis ir faktinėmis elektros srovės laiduose vertėmis.
čių energijos išteklių integravimą ir kitus su tuo susi- Tokiu būdu galima ne tik tiksliai suderinti, bet ir pa-
jusius rinkos pokyčius, nustatytos kelios problemos ir greitinti taikomą didžiausios apkrovos skaičiavimą.
iššūkiai, sietini su esamo tinklo veikimu ir naudojimu. Raktažodžiai: dinaminis elektros linijos įverti-
Didesnių perdavimo tinklo pralaidumų poreikis yra nimas, pralaidumas, oro elektros perdavimo linijos,
vienas didžiausių elektros tinklo iššūkių. kompiuterinis modeliavimas, neuroniniai tinklai

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