CENTER FOR TOWN AND REGIONAL PLANNING STUDIES

FACULTY OF ARCHITECTURE, PLANNING AND SURVEYING

UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA CAWANGAN SELANGOR
KAMPUS PUNCAK ALAM

Course
Planning Technique and Modelling (TPS 552)

Course Learning Outcome (CLO 2) – Demonstrate planning techniques and tools to solve
planning issues and problems in town planning field (P5)

Lecturer’s Name
TPr Dr. Noraini binti Omar Chong

Semester Session
Oct-Feb 2023

Prepared by

Name Matrix Number

Muhammad Hakim Bin Halim 2020821536

Halifean Anak Rentap 2020836444

Ismizahwati Binti Ismail 2020620508

Siti Rahmah Bt Azharuddin 2020856274

1. There are tools for Decision Analytic Models. Please explain two (2) of the tools namely
(1) Decision Tree; and (2) Markov Model.

Decision analysis (DA) is a method of decision-making that involves identifying and

evaluating all aspects of a decision and responding to the decision that produces the best
outcome. There two types of tools for Decision Analytic Model which are Decision Tree and
Markov Model.

a) DECISION TREE

A decision tree is a diagram representing the potential results of a number of connected

decisions. It enables a person or organisation to compare potential courses of action based on
their costs, probabilities, and rewards. They can be used to stimulate small discussion or to
design an algorithm that determines the best option statistically.

Typically, a decision tree has one node at the beginning that branches out into potential
outcomes. Each of those outcomes connects to further nodes, which divide into additional
options. Its shape resembles a tree as a result.

Nodes are classified into three types: chance nodes, decision nodes, and end nodes. A chance
node, represented by a circle, displays the probabilities of various outcomes. A decision node,
represented by a square, represents a decision that must be made, and an end node represents
the final result of a decision path.
How To Create A Decision Tree

To draw a decision tree, here are the steps to follow:

1. Start with the main decision. To represent this point, draw a small box, then draw a line from
the box to the right for each possible solution or action. Label them appropriately.

2. Add chance and decision nodes to expand the tree as follows:

● Draw another box if another decision is required.
● Draw a circle if the outcome is uncertain (circles represent chance nodes).
● If the problem has been resolved, leave it blank (for now).

Draw possible solutions from each decision node. Draw lines representing possible outcomes
from each chance node. Include the probability of each outcome and the cost of each action if
you intend to analyse your options numerically.

3. Continue to expand each line until it reaches an endpoint, indicating that there are no more
decisions to be made or outcomes to consider. Then, for each possible outcome, assign a
value. It could be a numerical score or a monetary value. Add triangles to represent endpoints.
Advantages And Disadvantages

Decision trees are still widely used for the following reasons:

● What a simple concept they are to understand.

● With or without hard data, they are useful, and preparing any data would be minimal.
● Existing trees may have new options added to them.
● Their worth in choosing the best option among several possibilities.
● Very well how they incorporate other decision-making techniques.

Decision trees, however, can become overly complicated. A smaller influence diagram may be a
good choice in these circumstances. Influence diagrams concentrate attention on important
choices, inputs, and goals.

Decision Trees In Machine Learning And Data Mining

A decision tree can also be used to assist in the creation of automated predictive models, which
have uses in statistics, data mining, and machine learning. This approach, also referred to as
decision tree learning, uses observations about an item to predict the value.

Nodes in these decision trees stand in for data as opposed to decisions. A classification tree is
another name for this kind of tree. Each branch has a set of characteristics, or classification
guidelines, connected to a specific class label that can be found at the end of the branch.

Each new piece of information improves the model's ability to identify the subject's membership
in a limited set of values. Then, in a bigger decision-making model, that data can be used as an
input. The predicted variable may occasionally be a real number, like a price. Regression trees
are decision trees that can have continuous, infinite outcomes.

For increased accuracy, sometimes multiple trees are used together in ensemble methods:
● Bagging creates multiple trees by resampling the source data, then has those trees vote
to reach consensus.
 ● A Random Forest classifier consists of multiple trees designed to increase the
classification rate.
● Boosted trees that can be used for regression and classification trees.
● The trees in a Rotation Forest are all trained by using PCA (principal component
analysis) on a random portion of the data.

A decision tree is considered optimal when it represents the most data with the fewest number
of levels or questions. A decision tree can also be created by building association rules, placing
the target variable on the right. Each method has to determine which is the best way to split the
data at each level. Common methods for doing so include measuring the information gain and
variance reduction.

Using decision trees in machine learning has several advantages:

● The cost of using the tree to predict data decreases with each additional data point
● Works for either categorical or numerical data
● Can model problems with multiple outputs
● Uses a white box model (making results easy to explain)
● A tree’s reliability can be tested and quantified
● Tends to be accurate regardless of whether it violates the assumptions of source data

But they also have a few disadvantages:

● When dealing with categorical data with multiple levels, the information gain is biased in
favor of the attributes with the most levels.
● Calculations can become complex when dealing with uncertainty and lots of linked
outcomes.
● Conjunctions between nodes are limited to AND, whereas decision graphs allow for
nodes linked by OR.

b) MARKOV MODEL

The Markov model is a stochastic method for randomly changing systems that possess the
Markov property. This means that, at any given time, the next state is only dependent on the current state.

Markov analysis applied a probabilistic technique that uses Markov models to predict the future
behavior of some variable based on the current state. A recent example of the use of Markov analysis
''P(X(t+dt)=y|X(t)=x)=rxy dt+o(dt)''. This formula developed a CTMC model with eight states to depict
the disease transmission and spread.

Markov models also can be fixed order or variable order, as well as inhomogeneous or
homogeneous. In a fixed-order Markov model, the most recent state is predicted based on a fixed number
of the previous states, and this fixed number of previous states is called the order of the Markov model.
For example, a first-order Markov model predicts that the state of an entity at a particular position in a
sequence depends on the state of one entity at the preceding position.
 Transition diagram of the three state Markov process used to describe the transition dynamics of the
protein model.

Markov chains. These are the simplest type of Markov model and are used to represent systems
where all states are observable. Markov chains show all possible states, and between states, they show the
transition rate, which is the probability of moving from one state to another per unit of time. Applications
of this type of model include prediction of market crashes, speech recognition and search engine
algorithms.

A Markov chain is a discrete-time stochastic process that progresses from one state to another
with certain probabilities that can be represented by a graph and state transition matrix P as indicated
below:
 Markov models represent the simplest Markov model as a Markov chain, which can be expressed
in equations, as a transition matrix or as a graph. A transition matrix is used to indicate the probability of
moving from each state to each other state. Generally, the current states are listed in rows, and the next
states are represented as columns. Each cell then contains the probability of moving from the current state
to the next state. For any given row, all the cell values must then add up to one.

Thereover, Markov types also have hidden Markov models. These are used to represent systems
with some unobservable states. In addition to showing states and transition rates, hidden Markov models
also represent observations and observation likelihoods for each state. Hidden Markov models are used
for a range of applications, including thermodynamics, finance and pattern recognition. Another two
commonly applied types of Markov model are used when the system being represented is controlled.

Application of Hidden Markov Model

Markov decision processes. These are used to model decision-making in discrete, stochastic,
sequential environments. In these processes, an agent makes decisions based on reliable information.
These models are applied to problems in artificial intelligence (AI), economics and behavioral sciences.

Partially observable Markov decision processes. These are used in cases like Markov decision
processes but with the assumption that the agent doesn't always have reliable information. Applications of
these models include robotics, where it isn't always possible to know the location. Another application is
machine maintenance, where reliable information on machine parts can't be obtained because it's too
costly to shut down the machine to get the information.

Therefore, other Markov models are based on the chain representations but with added
information, such as observations and observation likelihoods.

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2. Correlation analysis is used to quantify the association between two (2) continuous variables.
Explain (1) Bivariate Pearson Correlation; and (2) Spearman Correlation. Please provide example.

A. Bivariate Pearson Correlation

The Bivariate Correlations procedure computes Pearson's correlation coefficient, Spearman's rho, and
Kendall's tau-b with their significance levels. Correlations measure how variables or rank orders are
related. Before calculating a correlation coefficient, screen your data for outliers, which can cause
misleading results, and evidence of a linear relationship. Pearson's correlation coefficient is a measure of
linear association. Two variables can be perfectly related, but if the relationship is not linear, Pearson's
correlation coefficient is not an appropriate statistic for measuring their association.

A correlation expresses the strength of linkage or co-occurrence between two variables in a single value
between -1 and +1. This value that measures the strength of linkage is called correlation coefficient,
which is represented typically as the letter r. The correlation coefficient between two continuous-level
variables is also called Pearson’s r or Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. A positive r value
expresses a positive relationship between the two variables (the larger A, the larger B) while a negative r
value indicates a negative relationship (the larger A, the smaller B). A correlation coefficient of zero
indicates no relationship between the variables at all. However correlations are limited to linear
relationships between variables. Even if the correlation coefficient is zero, a non-linear relationship might
exist.

Bivariate Pearson Correlation in SPSS

At this point it would be beneficial to create a scatter plot to visualize the relationship between our two
test scores in reading and writing. The purpose of the scatter plot is to verify that the variables have a
linear relationship. Other forms of relationship (circle, square) will not be detected when running
Pearson’s Correlation Analysis. This would create a type II error because it would not reject the null
hypothesis of the test of independence (‘the two variables are independent and not correlated in the
universe’) although the variables are in reality dependent, just not linearly.
The scatter plot can either be found in Graphs/Chart Builder or in Graphs/Legacy Dialog/Scatter Dot:

In the Chart Builder we simply choose in the Gallery tab the Scatter/Dot group of charts and drag the
‘Simple Scatter’ diagram (the first one) on the chart canvas. Next, we drag the variable Test_Score on the
y-axis and variable Test2_Score on the x-Axis.
SPSS generates the scatter plot for the two variables. A double click on the output diagram opens the
chart editor and a click on ‘Add Fit Line’ adds a linearly fitted line that represents the linear association
that is represented by Pearson’s bivariate correlation.

To calculate Pearson’s bivariate correlation coefficient in SPSS we have to open the dialog in
Analyze/Correlation/Bivariate:
This opens the dialog box for all bivariate correlations (Pearson’s, Kendall’s, Spearman). Simply select
the variables you want to calculate the bivariate correlation for and add them with the arrow.

Select the bivariate correlation coefficient we need, in this case Pearson. For the Test of Significance we
chose a two-tailed test of significance, because we have no assumption of either positive or negative
correlation between the two variables of Reading and Writing. We also left the default check mark on the
significant correlation flag which will add a little asterisk to all correlation coefficients with p<0.05 in the
SPSS output. Correlation expresses the strength of the relationship or co-occurrence between the variables
in a value between negative 1 and positive 1. This value that measures the strength of the relationship is
called the correlation coefficient, which is usually represented as the letter r.

The correlation coefficient between two continuous level variables is also called Pearson's r or Pearson's
product moment correlation coefficient. A positive r value indicates a positive relationship between two
variables i.e. greater A, greater B, while a negative r value indicates a negative relationship i.e. greater A,
smaller B. A zero correlation coefficient indicates no relationship between the variables at all. However
correlation is limited to a linear relationship between variables. Even if the correlation coefficient is zero,
a non-linear relationship may exist.
B. Spearman Correlation

The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient (Spearman’s correlation, for short) is a non-parametric
measure of the strength and direction of association that exists between two variables measured on at least
an ordinal scale. It is denoted by the symbol rs or the Greek letter ρ, pronounced rho. The test is used for
either ordinal variables or for continuous data that has failed the assumptions necessary for conducting the
Pearson's product-moment correlation. For example, you could use a Spearman’s correlation to
understand whether there is an association between exam performance and time spent revising; whether
there is an association between depression and length of unemployment; and so forth.

Determining when to use Spearman’s Correlation :

Spearman’s correlation is appropriate for more types of relationships, but it too has requirements your
data must satisfy to be valid. Specifically, Spearman’s correlation requires your data to be continuous data
that follow a monotonic relationship or ordinal data. When you have continuous data that do not follow a
line, you must determine whether they exhibit a monotonic relationship. In a monotonic relationship, as
one variable increases, the other variable tends to either increase or decrease, but not necessarily in a
straight line. This aspect of Spearman’s correlation allows you to fit curvilinear relationships. However,
there must be a tendency to change in a particular direction, as illustrated in the graphs below.
 ● Positive Monotonic: tends to increase but not necessarily in a linear fashion.
● Negative Monotonic: Tends to decrease but not necessarily in a linear fashion.
● Non-Monotonic: No overall tendency to either increase or decrease.

Spearman’s rho is an excellent choice when you have ordinal data because Pearson’s is not appropriate.
Ordinal data have at least three categories and the categories have a natural order. For example, first,
second, and third in a race are ordinal data. For example, imagine the same contestants participating in
two spelling competitions. Suppose you have the finishing ranks for all contestants in both matches and
want to calculate the correlation between contests. Spearman’s rank order correlation is appropriate for
these data. Spearman’s rho is also a great way to report correlations between Likert scale items

Spearman’s Correlations for Likert Items and Other Ordinal Data :

Statisticians report correlations of ordinal data, such as ratings and Likert scale items, using Spearman's
rho. A positive true Spearman correlation indicates that high levels of one variable tend to coincide with
high levels of another variable. A negative correlation indicates that a high rating of one variable often
occurs with a low rating of another variable. For Likert items that use the Strongly Agree to Strongly
Disagree scale, the Spearman correlation means the following:

● Strongly positive coefficient: Strongly Agree scores tend to appear together.

● Strongly negative coefficient: Strongly Agree on one item coincides with Strongly Disagree on
another item.
● Coefficients approach zero: The value of one Likert item does not predict the value of another
Likert item. There is no relationship between them.
References