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Sarbin Contribution Study Actuarial Individual Methods Prediction
Sarbin Contribution Study Actuarial Individual Methods Prediction
Sarbin Contribution Study Actuarial Individual Methods Prediction
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American Journal of Sociology.
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ABSTRACT
Arepredictionsofconductmoreaccuratewhenmade by case-studymethodsthan by actuarial methods?
This studyis an experimentalratherthan a polemicalattemptto determinetherelativeaccuracyofthe two
modes of prediction.A restrictedformof behavior-academic success-was predictedfromclinical (case-
study)materialand froma previouslyderivedregressionequation. The correlationcoefficients demonstrate
that the case-studymethodwhichpresumablyaccounts foran innumerableassortmentof variablesis no
moreaccurate than a simplestatisticalmethodwhichaccountsforonly two variables. Analysisof the pre-
dictionssuggeststhat the case-studymethodtakes behaviorsegmentswithknownpredictiveweightsand
applies otherweightswhichare less efficient.Case-studypredictions-at least on thegroundsofefficiency-
shouldnot be substitutedforactuarialpredictions.As a complementto the actuarialpredictions,theclini-
cal predictionsadd nothing.The possibilityof generalizingto the predictionof otherkinds of criteriais
discussed.
Men Women
Men Women
0-1 *23 . ............. -54 .40
Honor-point ratios with high- 0-4 * 232 . ............. .13 .1 2
school rank and aptitude test. .56 .68 F .4.27 3.22
Clinical predictions with high-
school rank and aptitude test.. .70 .8i rank; 3 =
*Code: i = Honor-pointratio; 2 = High-school
Collegeaptitudetest;4 Clinicalpredictions.
Coefficient
Differences ............. .32 .3I
Criticalratios......... ... 3.I5 4.57
withcase-reader.68
All counselors
CounselorA ............. .64
CounselorB ....... .. .82 TABLE 8
CounselorC .............. 88
MEANS OF STATISTICALPREDICTIONS AND HON-
CounselorD ............. . 72
OR-POINTRATIOS AND CRITICAL RATIOS OF
CounselorE .. . . 68
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS
Case-readerwithself......... 78
Fromthepointofviewofefficiency in the Men Women
practicalsituationwherepredictionsserve
Statisticalpredictions... . I .04 I.I7
as the basis foremployment or collegead- Honor-pointratios........ .92 I9 I.
VI
Art or Science," Psychometrica, (I94I), 39I-400.