EC3 188 W23 AlO

1.
1 P(A) <0
2) PCs) 1 =

3)
EAyAs,..... And is a
sequence exclusive
ofmutually
events so t

AinAn 0 =

kijj =
P(A,UAzu ....vAju...3 P(Ai) P(A2) ..
=

+ +
.. P(Aj)t...
+

Proof by counter example

Let S be a nullset
meaning Pr[D3, by Claim 34

P(03 0.
=

does the End

This
satisfy
not axiom as when 3:0

PCS3F1:. is false.
it
217Pr(CA- B) vCB-A)) Pr(AeB) -(nE)
=

We can use a Venn diagram as we can make an

informal prof Br
An

-" E -
- -
-

be A
me
Let Let=
Let Letmy be B
-

Leta be BrE
Let um An
..
by Venn
Diagrams Pr[AxB3 PrSAuB3
=

B) PrAsB):PrEAvB3
If then ABB are
mutually exclusive

Proofby contradition
PrSASB3=PrSAUB3 and AFTSOW that for are notmutually
exclusivel

LetA 31,239 B [2,33 Pr[AsBD PrEAuB3

= =

=
Pr[1,2,33
Pr(AB) 0r [(A- B) v (B A)3
=

=Pr[CI) v(3)3
:this contradicts Aor B
that
Pr21,23
=

are mutually exclusive. Thus the

Pr[1,2,33 = Pr[1,23 original statementholds.

3.
Let A be the thatthe is
event
port good
B
Let be the thatIron Kitten
event
makes the port

PrSAlB3 PrEBlA3. P.[A3

=

Pr(B3

Let PrSA3 be 0.9 thatthe port is good

Let PrSBIAS be 0.01 thatIron Kitter malles the game
and it

is good
Let PrEB3 be 0.1 that
Iron Kitten makes the
port

PrSA1B3
(0.01) (0.9)
=

0.09
98
=

=
4.
LetAbe event where sun of is 19
pips
B
Let be eventwhere 6 outof
8 dises rolls a 2

We Theorem
can use
Bayes'
P(A(B) P/AnB) =

P(B)

We solve for PCBIA), PCA), PCB)

to
()
PCB) =

the
represent chance ofrolling s
a
for I die to the of6 for
power
6 dices

PATB) We know thatwe can

only roll a dice with S

sides thatexcludes the number 2 thus we can roll

only (1,3,4,5,63
So we have 2 dices thatcan roll (1,3,4,5,63
With 2
dices, we can roll ((,6)(3,4) (43) (6,1) 9) our

PCAB)=s(t)
sample is IS as we have 5 sides thus
space

P(AIB) =
=
(t) =
4
25
(i)
5.
6 possible outcomes for each die thus (6)(6) 36=
outcomes

in sample space

To satisfy the firstoutcome, we can countthe # of

ordered in the sample space the 1stdie is
pairs where even

E1,2,3,4,5,63 there are 3 even numbers from 1 to 6

thus 5.6=18 ordered thus P(A) is

pairs,

P(A)
5t
=

We can calculate the probability event B

of by finding the #
outcomes
of in the sample space that
satisfies condition B

The ordered thatthe of2 dice is 11

only pairs
2
sum

is 2 thus PCB) would be

-

36

Now we
find their intersection to find independence

P(An B) P(A) *P(B)

=

=(i)()
↓
36

56 5j =

56 events A BB independent
meaning are
.
 6.
We can apply Bayes Theorem

Let Aby the eventthat

a random picture contains a cat
Let i be the thatthe Al classifies
event a
picture as a cat

P(AIB) P(BIA). =

P(A)

P(B)
We know P(A) 0.06, P(E) 0.94410.06
=
=

P(B(A) 3600
=88 0.
=

15000-1000) e

images that
actually contain
Find P(B) a cat

P(B(A)
0 0.2
=

↑
images total
that
do
images P(AIB) P(
P(A) =

PCBIAT) PCIES
notcontain
that
a sat do not 1
= -

From ti
contain P(B)
1 -0.8
=

(0.9)(0.06]
a cut
=

=0.2
0.242
0.223
=

P(B) P(B(A) P(A) P(B(E) P/A)

=
·
+ +

.. the probability
P(B) (0.5)(0.00) (0.2) (0.94)
=

=
would be 0.223

P(B) 0.242 =
7.
A)
p.5x x3 =

(, ) 0.S
=

E(x) EP(X=
=

x).i

E(x)
(Y) 0.5
=

B) E(x)
(Y)0.sNi
=

Trial error

N3
=

N4 =

E(x E(8) 0.s

=

[xx3
(v) 0.s"
=

0.375 0.73 0.37S 0.25 0.75

=

+
+ =
+

+0.75
=1.SO +0.IS

=2

:Mr. N=4, you

make profits & n=5
you
break