(Alb) = PAN) eg _ tb) dang) = (CALS) Gend Facebook =e = -ount: Men a By 40 60 = By 70 2 or more 1 a Ks mes — 750 rea 40 NN, . \so_ \ lo vos To Zp 0 Co VSBayes’ Theorem - Example alt een of pki Sadle™ Or A manufacturer of cell phones purchases a microchip, called the LS-24, from three suppliers: Hall Electronics, Schuller Sales, and Crawford Components. Forty-five percent of the LS-24 chips are purchased from Hall Electronics, 30% from Schuller Sales, and the remaining 25% from Crawford Components. The manufacturer has extensive histories on the three suppliers and knows that 3% of the LS-24 chips from Hall Electronics are defective, 6% of chips from Schuller Sales are defective, and 4% of the chips purchased from Crawford Components are defective. When the LS-24 chips arrive from the three suppliers, they are placed directly in a bin and not inspected or otherwise identified by supplier. A worker selects a chip for installation and finds it defective. What is the probability that it was ose Sales? eA Uk crow? LT “Mh (A\e) = eae) ‘a2PIA) = Peane) ¢ Ch) ecaney =P (BIA) £4) P(A\%) = Pood) FA) P(A) eR PORE) + COMER) (5.45 HOBBY £ (4405) — 0,015SOAL 4 (CONFIDENCE INTERVAL MEAN DAN PROPORSI 25 poin) Suatu mesin yang diprogram untuk mengemas beras seberat 5,0 kilogram sedang diuji ketepatannya. Dalam suatu sampel acak sebanyak 36 kemasan beras, berat rata-rata isi kemasan adalah 5,08 kilogram. Diketahui bahwa deviasi standar berat isi kemasan beras untuk populasi adalah 0,254 kilogram. a. Identifikasi parameter yang relevan diestimasi untuk data kuantitatif ini dan hitung estimasi interval rata-rata dan margin kesalahan dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%. (9) b. Dengan interval kepercayaan sesuai dengan poin (a), apakah hasil kemasan mesin berada di dalam atau di luar interval kepercayaan? (8) cc. Jika kita ingin memastikan margin kesalahan paling banyak adalah 0,05 Kilogram dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%, berapakah jumlah sampel yang diperlukan? (8) x a=s4 Ye =us ‘4 (0,08 or5 4 ZV941. Assume that the mean success rate of a Poisson process is six successes per hour. 2. Find the expected number of successes in a 40-minute period, b. Find the expected number of successes in a three-hour period. c.Find the probability of at least two successes in a 30-minute period. 2. Sam is a trucker and believes that for every 60 miles he drives on the freeway in Indiana, there is an average of 2 state troopers checking his speed with a radar gun. a. What is the probability that at least one trooper is checking his speed on a randomly selected 60-mile stretch? b. What is the probability that exactly three troopers are checking his speed on a randomly selected 60-mile stretch? ¢. Sam drives 240 miles a day. What is the average number of state troopers that check his speed on a given day? 4. Sam drives 240 miles a day. What is the probability that exactly five troopers. check Sam's speed on @ randomly selected day? 3. Due to turnover and promotion, a bank manager knows that, on average, she hires four now tellers per year. Suppose the number of tellers she hires is Poisson-distributed ‘a. What is the probability that in a given year, the manager hires exactly five new tellers? . What is the average number of tellers the manager hires in a six-month period? c. What is the probability that the manager hires at least one new teller in a given six-month period? 4, A telemarketer knows that, on average, he is able to make three sales in a 30-minute Period. Suppose the number of sales he can make in a given time period is Poisson- distributed, a. What is the probability that he makes exactly four sales in a 30-minute period? b. What is the probability that he makes at least two sales in a 30-minute period? c. What is the probability that he makes five sales in an hour-longperiod? [) 6 = 0] —p4ox =x )& b) 0/1 xI@o = (9 C) O11 xe? ©) | (=e = P@)=Ohk x! - 0 oKideG —) G 6 bo —Yumayaib Zz ? Visy- 0. o" Sl = «oe 4) _ - 0,4 on ONT = 000009} AA.