How does a red card affect the outcome of a football match?

1. Introduction

1.1 Introduction
Soccer is a game played on a field between two teams of 11 players each with the objective to
propel a round ball into the opponent’s goal by kicking or by hitting it with any part of the body
except the hands and arms1. The objective of the game is to move the ball up the pitch and beyond
the goal line of your opponent’s goal. A standard game lasts 90 minutes, split into two halves of 45
minutes. Any of a team’s 11 players on the pitch can score a goal, which adds one to their team’s
total. The team also gets a goal if an opponent sends the ball into their own goal by mistake. The
team that scores the most goals in the 90 minutes wins the game2. In the game of soccer,
committing offences can earn you a yellow or even red card. In the case of a red card, it is shown to
a player who has committed a serious offense such as violent conduct or an illegal and purposeful
obstruction of a goal scoring opportunity for the opposing team3. Players who are given red cards
are instantly sent off the field and are forbidden to play for the rest of the match. As a result, his
team must continue the game with one player fewer. This can lead to a change in goal scoring
probabilities for both teams, with my estimate being that the penalized team will suffer a decrease
in scoring intensity whilst the opposing team will enjoy an increase in scoring intensity. Therefore, I
will be using mathematics today to further analyse this process and understand how the issue of a
red card in a soccer match could possibly affect the winning / losing / draw probabilities in a sample
soccer match. I am interested in carrying out this investigation as red cards have always had a
controversial history in the world of football. From the red card being issued to Luis Suarez a
Uruguayan player for using his hands to stop the ball to prevent a goal in an intense match (an
action that was prohibited), to when the red card was issued to the legendary Zinedine Zidane for
headbutting an opposing player after receiving provocation. These instances when a red card was
issued went on to change the game and influence results, possibly even helping losing teams make a

1 “Definition of SOCCER.” 2019. Merriam-Webster.com. 2019. https://www.merriam-

webster.com/dictionary/soccer.
2 “All You Need to Know about Soccer.” n.d. Bundesliga.com - the Official Bundesliga

Website. https://www.bundesliga.com/en/faq/all-you-need-to-know-about-soccer.

3
“Penalty Card.” 2022. Wikipedia. September 21, 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penalty_card#:~:text=A%20red%20card%20will%20be.
comeback. Red cards are quite a prominent sight, with 47 red cards being issued in just 1 season of
the English Premier League consisting of 380 matches, roughly making it 1 red card in every 8
matches.

1.2 Aim and Objective

Through this Mathematical exploration, I hope to investigate the use of math concepts such as
Logistics and Poisson distribution to find out the effect a red card can have on a football match. I also
hope to find out the logic behind these distributions and how they can be applied successfully in this
scenario.

2. Methodology
In other to first figure out the impact a red card has on the outcome of a match, we first must
understand how logistic distribution works which we will be using to calculate the probability of the
appearance of a red card in a 90-minute football match. We then need to use our figures obtained
and apply Poisson distribution to it to figure out how these red cards , and their timing of their
appearance , can affect teams attack and defense strengths which can go on to affect the match
outcomes.

2.1 Logistic Distribution

Logistic Distribution is a continuous distribution function 4. This means that the random variable X
can take on any value as it is continuous. Therefore, as X has an infinite range of values, the
probability of X taking any one specific value is 0. One common example of a continuous distribution
is normal distribution. We use logistic distribution in this case because it has wider tails compared to
normal distribution which provides us better insight into the likelihood of extreme events. This will
help us to predict the likelihood of a red card being issued at different time intervals during a 90-
minute football match.

2.2 Proving Logistic Distribution

For any random variable X with normalized logistic distribution, it will have a pdf of
𝑒 −𝑥
(1 + 𝑒 −𝑥 )2
Where 𝑒 is Euler’s number (𝑒 = 2.71828) , and 𝑥 is the number of occurrences.

𝜋2
As such, its variance 𝑉 will equal to
3

∞ 𝑥 2𝑒 −𝑥 𝜋2
We thus must prove that when 𝑉 = ∫−∞ (1+𝑒 −𝑥)2 𝑑𝑥 , it will equate to its variance
3

∞ ∞ 0
𝑥 2 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑥 2 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑥 2 𝑒 −𝑥
∫ −𝑥 2 𝑑𝑥 = ∫ −𝑥 )2 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ −𝑥 2 𝑑𝑥
−∞ (1 + 𝑒 ) 0 (1 + 𝑒 −∞ (1 + 𝑒 )

∞ 𝑥 2𝑒 𝑥 ∞ 𝑥 2𝑒 −𝑥
= ∫0 (1+𝑒 𝑥 )2
𝑑𝑥 + ∫0(1+𝑒 −𝑥 )2
𝑑𝑥

4 Logistic Distribution - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

 ∞ x 2 ex ∞ x2e−x
= ∫0 dx + ∫0 dx
e2x (1+e−x )2 (1+e−x )2

∞ 𝑥 2𝑒 −𝑥
= 2 ∫0 (1+𝑒 −𝑥 )2
𝑑𝑥
∞
∞
= 2∫ 𝑥2 ∑ 𝑛(−1)𝑛−1 𝑒 −𝑛𝑥 𝑑𝑥
0 𝑛=1
∞ ∞
= 2 ∑ 𝑛(−1)𝑛−1 ∫ 𝑥 2 𝑒 −𝑛𝑥 𝑑𝑥
𝑛=1 0

∞
2
= 2 ∑ 𝑛(−1)𝑛−1
𝑛3
𝑛=1
∞
1
= 4 ∑(−1)𝑛−1
𝑛2
𝑛=1

𝜋2
=2−
6
𝜋2
=
3

2.3 Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It helps us to calculate the probability of
an event happening a certain number of times within a given interval of time or space. Discrete
variables take only a finite number of real values. A typical Poisson distribution function will have
the following equation.
𝜆𝑥 −𝜆
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒
𝑥!
Where 𝑒 is Euler’s number (𝑒 = 2.71828) , and 𝑥 is the number of occurrences. 𝜆 is equal to the
expected value of x which is also equal to its variance.

2.4 Proving Poisson Distribution

A Poisson random variable X is expected to have a value, 𝐸[𝑋] = 𝜆

This can be derived as follows: 𝐸[𝑋]

= ∑ 𝑥𝑝 𝑥(𝑥)
𝑥𝑒𝑅𝑥
∞
𝜆𝑥
= ∑ 𝑥𝑒𝑥𝑝(− 𝜆)
𝑥!
𝑥=0
∞
𝜆𝑥
= ∑ 𝑥𝑒𝑥𝑝(−𝜆 ) +0
𝑥!
𝑥=1
 ∞
𝜆𝑦+1
= ∑(𝑦 + 1)𝑒𝑥𝑝( − 𝜆)
(𝑦 + 1)!
𝑦=0

∞
𝜆𝜆𝑦
= ∑(𝑦 + 1) exp(−𝜆)
(𝑦 + 1)𝑦!
𝑦=0

∞
𝜆𝑦
= 𝜆 ∑ exp(−𝜆)
𝑦!
𝑦=0

= 𝜆 ∑ 𝑝𝑦(𝑦)
𝑦=0

=𝜆