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1976 $MM 1981 $MM 1987 $MM 1991 $MM Exhibit 1 Top Integrated Circuit Manufacturers, Worldwide Revenues ($ Millions)
1976 $MM 1981 $MM 1987 $MM 1991 $MM Exhibit 1 Top Integrated Circuit Manufacturers, Worldwide Revenues ($ Millions)
159 109 85 75 63 49
(60) 250 139 28 30 183
26 15 17 17 15 8
53 57 46 18 21 9
27 6 10 2 5 0
(5) 298 178 30 40 185
(7) 100 62 0 13 89
illions)
December December December December December December
1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980
361 231 389 85 115 128
364 354 303 221 180 196
171 219 152 122 97 91
128 154 89 100 67 32
1,024 958 933 528 460 447
1,338 1,165 801 697 591 447
490 386 297 236 179 126
848 778 504 462 412 321
267 272 217 51 0 0
12 21 26 16 0 0
2,152 2,029 1,680 1,056 872 767
4 0 0 0 0 0
84 66 81 75 32 12
57 80 79 39 32 12
3 40 18 0 0 4
85 117 73 56 46 55
72 88 74 52 53 46
307 390 326 223 172 147
271 146 128 197 150 150
134 113 89 68 44 23
19 20 15 17 18 14
0 -0.26%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198
-0.02 -1.80%
-0.04
rowth rate
24%
4.17% 4.18%
3.46% 3.46% 3.67%
1.89%
0.01295463361
variance 0.10041026700
annualized 0.3478
Exhibit 12 Estimates of Future Cash Flows
DU Pont Analysis
Profit margin Asset turnover Total Assets/Equity Reurn on Equity
2.5
1.989
2
1.707 1.631
1.567 1.514 1.492
1.469
1.5
2.5
1.989
2
1.707 1.631
1.567 1.514 1.492
1.469
1.5
activity Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover Total Asset Turnover Asset to Equity Rat
2.5
y Reurn on Equity 1.99
2 1.77
1.86
1.74 1.71 1.65 1.63
1.57 1.51
1.47
1.5
1.21 1.22
631
1.514 1.492 1
0.74 0.78 0.81
0.73
0.61 0.63
0.803 0.5
2.5
y Reurn on Equity 1.99
2 1.77
1.86
1.74 1.71 1.65 1.63
1.57 1.51
1.47
1.5
1.21 1.22
631
1.514 1.492 1
0.74 0.78 0.81
0.73
0.61 0.63
0.803 0.5
0.634
0
0.122 0.146 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985
0.001 0.001
6 1985 1984
-0.136
Solvency ratio
Debt to Asset ratio D/E Ratio
Long term debt to equity ratio
1.2
0.989
1
0.8 0.707
0.631
0.567
0.6 0.497 0.497 0.514 0.492
0.414 0.387
0.4 0.338 0.362 0.340 0.330
0.230288 0.228178 0.225098 0.190711
0.2 0.161632
0.096047 0.107353
0
1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984
1986 1985 1984
2.737968 3.335505 2.45641
Ratios
t Turnover Asset to Equity Ratio
1.99
1.63
1.51 1.55 1.49
1.21 1.22
.73 0.80
0.61 0.63
1.99
1.63
1.51 1.55 1.49
1.21 1.22
.73 0.80
0.61 0.63
E Ratio
31
0.514 0.492
0.340 0.330
225098 0.190711
0.107353
86 1985 1984
Year 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985
Working Capital 1,805 1,242 1,036 549 650 717
Total Assets 5,276 3,994 3,550 2,597 2,080 2,152
Working Capital/Total Assets 0.342 0.311 0.292 0.211 0.313 0.333
Weight 1.20
X1 Total 0.411 0.373 0.350 0.254 0.375 0.400
Average 2.8512
1984
568
2,029
0.280
0.336
689.00
0.340
0.48
250
0.123
0.407
$1,360
669.00
2.033
1.220
Year DOL
1985 765%
1986 -1706%
1987 -556% 1.6
1988 279%
1.4
1989 13%
1990 168% 1.2
1
Financial Risk Calculation 0.8
Degree of Financial Leverage
0.6
Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
EBIT 250 -60 -135 246 594 601 858 0.4
Interest 15 26 39 66 78 102 102
DFL 1.063829787 0.697674419 0.775862069 1.3666666667 1.151162791 1.20440882 1.134920635 0.2
0
1984 1985
0.6
0.4
0.2
Average DFL 1.056360741 0
1984 1985
Interest Coverage Ratio
Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
EBIT 250 -60 -135 246 594 601 858
Interest 15 26 39 66 78 102 102
Interest Coverage Ratio (TIE) 16.66666667 -2.30769231 -3.46153846 3.7272727273 7.615384615 5.89215686 8.411764706
15
10
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
-5
1985 1986 1987
DOL 7.651364 -17.0625 -5.56092
Average DOL -1.72777
10
-15
-20
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
1984 1985 1986 1987
0.6 DFL 1.0638297872 0.6977 0.7759 1.366667
0.4
0.2
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
31.46%
534 409 543 511
11 42 35 43
5%
18.70%
1992 1993 1994 1995
$748.90 $898.10 $1,026.20 $1,207.30
666 971 1,044 1,235
75.717 79.667 83.824 88.197
11 42 35 43
534 409 543 511
$967.62 $1,581.77 $1,646.02 $2,062.50
$15,811.65
$967.62 $1,581.77 $1,646.02 $17,874.15
Giving 70% weight on average estimated income and 30% on pessimistic estimated income
19.58%
Assumption set: Repurchase of share with 20% excess cash ($1785 million*20%=357)
Valuation
1990( Base) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Net income 650 876.63 845.08 790.22 904.11 957.74
Add: Non-cash expense- Depreciation 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Interest 102 102.00 102.00 102.00 102.00 102.00
Interest(1-t) 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384
Subtract: Addition to PPE 530 534 409 543 511
Add: Decrease in NWC 58 11 42 35 43
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 1792
Terminal value 13706.22
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 15498
PV of FCFF 9710.06
+ Surplus Cash & Marketable securities $1,428.00
FIRM VALUE 11138.06
(-) Value of Debt 345
(-) PV of agency cost 334.1418888
Value of equity 10458.92
(÷)Number of Shares 190.38
Value per Share 54.94
WACC for Repurchased stock
Risk Free Int. Rate 10.78%
Equity Beta 1.70
Equity Risk Premium 3.00%
Cost of Equity 15.88%
Cost of Debt 29.57%
After tax cost of debt 19.49%
Total debt 345
Total equity 3,235
Weight of equity 90.36%
weight of debt 9.64%
Base WACC 16%
Business risk premium 1.00%
Financial risk premium 1.50%
Risk adjusted capital 18.73%
Assumption set: Dividend $84 million ($0.42 per share)
Tax 34.08%
Sales growth rate 10.82%
Cost of goods sold (% of sales) 41.78%
R&D 13.19%
advertising expense 2.40%
Others 5.94%
Debt 345
Interest expense 102
Interest income 5.18%
other non operating income 0.69%
Terminal growth rate 5%
WACC 18.70%
Income statement
Valuation
Net income 650 876.63 845.08 790.22 904.11 957.74
Add: Non-cash expense- Depreciation 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Interest 102 102.00 102.00 102.00 102.00 102.00
Interest(1-t) 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384 67.2384
Subtract: Addition to PPE 530 534 409 543 511
Add: Decrease in NWC 58 11 42 35 43
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 1792
Terminal value 13737.792
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 15530
PV of FCFF 9723.46
+ Surplus Cash & Marketable securities 1701.00
FIRM VALUE 11424.46
(-) Value of Debt 345.00
(-) PV of agency cost 342.73
Value of equity 10736.73
(÷)Number of Shares 199.65
Value per Share 53.78
WACC for dividend issue
WACC for Basic Valuation 0
Risk Free Int. Rate 10.78%
Equity Beta 1.70
Equity Risk Premium 3.00%
Cost of Equity 15.88%
Cost of Debt 29.57%
After tax cost of debt 0
Total debt 345
Total equity 3,592
Weight of equity 91.24%
weight of debt 8.76%
Base WACC 16%
Business risk premium 1.00%
Financial risk premium 2%
Risk adjusted WACC 18.70%
Forecasted
Year 1990 (base year) 1991 1992
Net income 650 819 748.9
Assumptions
Sales growth 10.82%
COGS (% of sales) 41.78%
R&D (% of sales) 13.19%
advertising expense (% of sales) 2.40%
Others (% of sales) 5.94%
Interest income (% of sales) 5.18%
other non operating income (% of sales) 0.69%
Interest bearing debt (Long term debt) 345 363 381.9391304 401.866389
YoY debt growth rate 5.22%
Interest expense 102 105 110.4782609 116.242344
Interest rate 29.57% 28.93% 0.00% 0.00%
Depreciation 292 418 666 971
Tax rate 34.08%
Terminal growth rate 5%
WACC 18.70%
d1 0.1529
d2 -0.3390
N(d1) 0.5608
N(d2) 0.3673
and Valuation
1994 1995
5913.53981251 6553.3022023
2470.38465006 2737.6457555
3443.15516245 3815.6564468
779.724581247 864.07988742
141.768105681 157.10543408
351.264264863 389.26615082
1044 1235
1126.39821066 1170.2049745
122.307162 128.6884052
306.321362288 339.46105408
40.8034247063 45.217785196
1351.21583565 1426.1954085
460.454889262 486.00573763
890.76094639 940.18967091
1044 1235
122.307162 128.6884052
80.6284536481 84.835155555
543 511
35 43
1507 1792
13738.13969
1507 15530
Assumption set: Debt/Equity= 25%
Forecasted I/S
1990( Base) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Sales 3,921 4345.20 4815.29 5336.23 5913.54 6553.30
Cost of goods sold 1,638 1815.21 2011.59 2229.21 2470.38 2737.65
Gross profit 2,283 2529.99 2803.70 3107.02 3443.16 3815.66
R&D 517 572.93 634.92 703.60 779.72 864.08
advertising expense 94 104.17 115.44 127.93 141.77 157.11
Others 233 258.10 286.03 316.97 351.26 389.27
Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Operating profit 858 1176.78 1101.32 987.51 1126.40 1170.20
Interest expense 102 266.22 266.22 266.22 266.22 266.22
Interest income 203 225.081226346 249.4318704 276.416914 306.3213623 339.4610541
Other nonoperating income 27 29.9818621967 33.22548081 36.82001364 40.80342471 45.2177852
Pretax income 986 1165.63 1117.75 1034.53 1207.30 1288.66
Tax 336 397.25 380.93 352.57 411.45 439.18
Net Income after taxes 650 768.38 736.82 681.96 795.85 849.49
Valuation
Net income 650 768.38 736.82 681.96 795.85 849.49
Add: Non-cash expense- Depreciation 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Interest 102 266.22 266.22 266.22 266.22 266.22
Interest(1-t) 67.2384 175.492224 175.492224 175.492224 175.492224 175.492224
Subtract: Addition to PPE 530 534 409 543 511
Add: Decrease in NWC 58 11 42 35 43
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 1792
Terminal value 11670.14
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 13462
PV of FCFF $8,140.72
+ Surplus Cash & Marketable securities $1,785.00
FIRM VALUE 9925.72
(-) Value of Debt 900
(-) PV of agency cost 297.772
(-)PV of distress cost 28.288
Value of equity 8699.211
(÷)Number of Shares 199.65
Value per Share 43.57230779
WACC when D/E is 25%
Risk Free Int. Rate 10.78%
Equity Beta 1.70
Equity Risk Premium 3.00%
Cost of Equity 15.8800%
Cost of Debt 29.57%
After tax cost of debt 19.49%
Total debt 900
Total equity 3,592
Weight of equity 79.96%
weight of debt 20.04% 25.068207130000000%
Base WACC 16.60%
Business risk premium 1.00%
Financial risk premium 1.50%
Risk adjsuted WACC 19.10%
New Long term debt 555
D/E
0.2506820713
Assumption set: Debt/Equity= 48%
Forecasted I/S
1990( Base) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Sales 3,921 4345.1974198 4815.28707 5336.23386 5913.53981 6553.3022
Cost of goods sold 1,638 1815.2087155 2011.58894 2229.21476 2470.38465 2737.64576
Gross profit 2,283 2529.9887043 2803.69814 3107.0191 3443.15516 3815.65645
R&D 517 572.93217701 634.915434 703.604414 779.724581 864.079887
advertising expense 94 104.16948673 115.43917 127.928075 141.768106 157.105434
Others 233 258.10472674 286.028052 316.972291 351.264265 389.266151
Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Operating profit 858 1176.7823138 1101.31548 987.514323 1126.39821 1170.20497
Interest expense 102 510 510 510 510 510
Interest income 203 225.08122635 249.43187 276.416914 306.321362 339.461054
Other nonoperating income 27 29.981862197 33.2254808 36.8200136 40.8034247 45.2177852
Pretax income 986 921.85 873.97 790.75 963.52 1044.88
Tax 336 314.16491312 297.849941 269.488026 328.368638 356.096404
Net Income after taxes 650 607.68 576.12 521.26 635.15 688.79
Valuation
Net income 650 607.68 576.12 521.26 635.15 688.79
Add: Non-cash expense- Depreciation 292 418 666 971 1044 1235
Interest 102 510 510 510 510 510
Interest(1-t) 67.2384 336.192 336.192 336.192 336.192 336.192
Subtract: Addition to PPE 530 534 409 543 511
Add: Decrease in NWC 58 11 42 35 43
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 1792
Terminal value 10558.8547
FCFF 890 1055 1461 1507 12351
PV of FCFF $7,294.66
+ Surplus Cash & Marketable securities $1,785.00
FIRM VALUE $9,079.66
(-) Value of Debt 1,725
(-) PV of agency cost 272.39
(-)PV of distress cost 25.88
Value of equity 7056.40
(÷)Number of Shares 199.65
Value per Share 35.34
WACC when D/E is 48%
Risk Free Int. Rate 10.78%
Equity Beta 1.70
Equity Risk Premium 3.00%
Cost of Equity 15.88%
Cost of Debt 29.57%
After tax cost of debt 19.49%
Total debt 1,725
Total equity 3,592
Weight of equity 67.56%
weight of debt 32.44%
Base WACC 17%
Business risk premium 1.00%
Financial risk premium 1.50%
Risk adjsuted WACC 19.55%
Total debt 345
New debt 1,380
D/E
48.02339%
December December
1991(E) 1990 YoY (%) change % of sales (91) % of sales (90)
Sales 4,779 3,921 21.88% 100.00% 100.00%
Cost of goods sold 1,898 1,638 15.87% 39.72% 41.78%
Gross profit 2,881 2,283 26.19% 60.28% 58.22%
SG & A, of which: 1,383 1,133 22.07% 28.94% 28.90%
R&D 618 517 19.54% 12.93% 13.19%
advertising expense 121 94 28.72% 2.53% 2.40%
Operating income before depreciation 1,498 1,151 30.15% 31.35% 29.35%
Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 418 292 43.15% 8.75% 7.45%
Operating profit 1,080 858 25.87% 22.60% 21.88%
Interest expense 105 102 2.94% 2.20% 2.60%
Interest income 194 203 -4.43% 4.06% 5.18%
Other nonoperating income 26 27 -3.70% 0.54% 0.69%
Pretax income 1,195 986 21.20% 25.01% 25.15%
Total income taxes 376 336 11.90% 7.87% 8.57%
Income before extraordinary items and discontinued 819 650 26.00% 17.14% 16.58%
operations
items extraordinary 0 0 #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00%
Net income 819 650 0.26 17.14% 16.58%
Earnings per share (fully diluted) 3.62 3.19
Common shares outstanding 208.99 199.65
Book value per share 21.14 17.99
Market-to-book ratio (end of year) 2.01 2.14
Value per
Alternatives share
Share repurchase 48.62
Dividend Issue 47.9
Put warrant 51.13
WACC CV
19.70% 0.2283
19.58% 0.2249
19.58% 0.2456