1

Abortion Attitudes and Identity

Sam Hodges

PS 5030: Seminar in American Government and Politics

April 28th, 2022

Abstract

Religiosity and partisan identity drive many attitudes, and abortion attitudes are not immune.

Previous research has focused on snapshots of the American public and primarily on religious

affiliation. I propose a longitudinal panel survey design to study partisanship and religiosity as

identities that drive abortion attitudes. I believe the study will find that people who identify more

strongly with one of those identities, regardless of which side they are on, will be more likely to

have stronger abortion attitudes. I also believe that religiosity will have a significant effect and

moderate the effect of religious affiliation.

 2

Introduction

What identities are most important in influencing abortion attitudes? Moreover, how do

these change over time? Most people think women should have some legal access to abortion

and that public opinion has not shifted much. About 75% of people supported some form of legal

abortion in 1975; in 2018, that number was 79% (Santhanam, 2018). I believe that it is not

partisanship or religiosity that influences the strength of abortion attitudes but the strength of a

person’s partisan identity or the strength of their religious identity. I expect the strength of these

identities will change over time. I expect fluctuations in the strength of these identities to

correlate with the strength of abortion attitudes.

A longitudinal panel survey study would show how the strength of abortion attitudes

changes over time, which is not often done when studying abortion attitudes. Most recent studies

of abortion attitudes have settled for cross-sectional snapshots of the American public. Though

more expensive and time-consuming, a longitudinal panel survey study would hammer in the

details of the dynamic relationship much more than the snapshot. It will also allow us to see if

there are fluctuations in attitudes and what causes them if it is one of our independent variables

of interest. I suspect that the effect of the religious affiliation variable that researchers have long

focused on will be strongly moderated by the effect of religiosity.

Literature Review

Political attitude change is a well-researched phenomenon. One tremendous factor in

determining attitude change is the social circles we run in. Social circles do not work on their

own in changing attitudes. Instead, they work primarily by shaping the information from outside

influences (MacKuen & Brown, 1987). Another scholarly study looked at political attitudes in
 3

the early 2000s and how exposure to political information impacted them. By doing two studies

on several types of radio talk shows, they found that when people are exposed to one-sided

messaging on a position, their agreement with that position increases as the exposure increases.

People are also more likely to listen to a source that already agrees with them (Lee & Cappella,

2001). The strength of one's identity has also been studied regarding its impact on opinion. Party

elites and co-partisans can impact opinion change, but this effect is most potent among those

with the strongest association with their party (Toff, Benjamin, and Suhay 2019). The strength of

one's identity and attitudes also impact how much a person will use motivated reasoning to

defend that identity or attitude (Leeper & Slothuus, 2014). When people are more firmly attached

to an identity or attitude, they will also be more likely to seek information to defend that identity

or attitude. Motivated reasoning, I believe, will create a more robust attitude.

Partisanship is a massive predictor of political attitudes. For example, partisanship drives

opinions about objective factors like the economy. When George W. Bush took office, all

partisan groups had an optimistic view of how the country was doing economically. However, by

2004, Republicans' economic ratings were roughly 75%, while Democrats' were around 25%.

Though the level of political polarization had some moderating effect on polarization, there was

still a significant effect from partisanship (Enns & McAvoy, 2012). The same holds for abortion

attitudes. Democrats are consistently more liberal on abortion than Republicans. Republicans are

becoming more progressive on abortion issues but are moving slowly and are still much more

likely to be pro-life, especially in the South (Jelen, 2017).

There have also been conflicting reports on abortion attitude research. Some people

change their political affiliation because of a change in their abortion attitudes, but the situation

occurs just as often in the opposite direction (Casey, Thomas, and Layman 2006). By doing a
 4

longitudinal study with the same group of people, I can see if they are more likely to change their

political affiliations or abortion attitudes over time.

Most recent research has focused on religion as the primary independent variable. In

contrast, partisanship is the 4th most used independent variable (Adamczyk, Kim, and Dillon,

2020). Some religious affiliations are more associated with one side of the abortion debate over

the other. For example, Jehova's Witnesses, Evangelical Protestants, and Mormons are all

significantly more likely to have pro-life attitudes than someone who is Buddhist, Jewish, or

Unaffiliated, who are much more likely to have pro-choice attitudes (Pew Research Center

2014). However, religion was mainly studied using just religious affiliation, not other measures

that could be more important (Adamczyk, Kim, and Dillon 2020). The religious affiliations

effect might be less significant if religiosity is accounted for. For black people, attending church

more often and interpreting the Bible more literally made them more likely to be pro-choice

(Gay & Lynxwiler, 1999).

Additionally, religiosity could play a role in deciding who gets involved in politics in the

first place. The religious beliefs that one holds about political power, who should hold it, how it

should be wielded, and where it comes from influence how much a person is involved in political

activity (Philpott, 2007). My research would include religious affiliation and religiosity measures

to see if religiosity has a more significant effect than just religious affiliation.

Theory

My research question is: How does the strength of identity influence the strength of

abortion attitudes? Furthermore, how do these change over time? I assume that people are more

likely to change the strength of their abortion attitudes rather than their political affiliations. I

believe any change in abortion attitudes or the given strength of those attitudes will strongly
 5

correlate with shifts in partisanship, religiosity, or both. Most research on abortion attitudes has

been cross-sectional, taking a snapshot of attitudes at one specific time. While this is helpful,

more longitudinal research is needed to understand better the dynamic relationship between

many independent variables and abortion attitudes. Specifically, suppose there is a dynamic

relationship between the independent variables of the strength of religiosity and partisanship and

the dependent variable of the strength of abortion attitudes. In that case, it should show even

more clearly in a longitudinal study.

I theorize that the strength of partisanship and religiosity are the most significant factors

driving the strength of abortion attitudes in the US. As someone identifies more strongly with

one of those identities, regardless of where they sit on the abortion debate, I expect them to have

stronger abortion attitudes. In particular, I expect religiosity to have a significant effect. I expect

those with higher religiosity scores to hold stronger abortion attitudes.

H1: As someone becomes more religious (i.e., attends more religious services or is more

literal about their religious text), they will develop stronger abortion attitudes, regardless of

which side of the debate they fall on.

I expect to get the same results as other scholars, that certain religions or religious beliefs

are associated with certain abortion attitudes. However, I believe that while someone’s religion

may stay the same, the strength of their religiosity will waver. For example, one might expect

that their religious opinion strength may fade as they age and enter legal adulthood. This could

be because of the distance from respondents’ childhood environments or exposure to new ideas.

The research on the effect of religiosity on black people’s abortion attitudes was done over 20

years ago, and people have gotten more progressive with their views on abortion, Democrats and
 6

Republicans alike. It would be interesting to see if that effect has changed and if it still only

holds for black churchgoers.

H2: As someone identifies as a stronger partisan, they will develop stronger abortion

attitudes, regardless of which side of the political spectrum they sit on.

Partisanship is increasingly a driver of opinions on current issues. If being a partisan

becomes more important to someone, then how strongly they believe in a position associated

with their partisanship should also increase. If someone identifies as a Democrat, they are more

likely to be for stronger gun regulations or fewer people patrolling our borders. People with

stronger identities and attitudes are also more strongly motivated to seek information confirming

these identities and attitudes. So, it makes sense that as someone becomes a stronger partisan,

they would seek out more information and then develop stronger attitudes from those sources

and the circles they are involved in. For example, I expect someone who identifies as a Strong

Democrat to have stronger abortion attitudes than someone who identifies as Leaning Democrat.

Research Design

A cross-sectional study would only look at attitudes in the present, so it would only look

at how people feel at a given time. A longitudinal panel survey study will help us understand

how abortion attitudes change over time, which is lacking in current abortion attitude research. It

will also let us know what identities are essential to it and which identities changing creates a

change in abortion attitudes if there are any at all. The design I am proposing would also allow

for the strength of the abortion attitude to fluctuate with the strength of specific identities, which

I suspect will fluctuate more than the attitude itself. Although this is not strictly part of my

research question, I also intend to ask about both the legal and moral side of abortion and see

how that correlates with identities and the strength of specific identities, namely race,
 7

partisanship, and religiosity. This will provide another lens through which to view abortion

attitudes, and having extra information is never a detriment. The study would select a group of

people to be surveyed for an extended period. Respondents would have to answer the same

survey questions every time they were surveyed. I plan to include age, race, and education as

control variables. These items could affect my dependent variable of interest but are outside of

the bounds of this research design.

We are also uniquely positioned with the upcoming Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v.

Jackson Women’s Health Organization. This monumental occasion means Americans are

probably unusually cognizant of abortion issues and their attitudes this year. With this in mind, it

would be valuable to see how citizens feel about abortion attitudes during this crucial time. The

Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision in early summer; therefore, I believe

sometime in late April-early May would be an excellent time to ask people how they feel about

abortion. It could then be compared later with periods when the issue is less salient to see if

people have more intense opinions/attitudes when the issue is more salient. This will be a score

based on the abortion attitude questions that I will describe below. My dependent variable of

interest is the change in abortion attitudes. My independent variables of interest are the change in

religiosity and the strength of partisanship.

Methods & Questions

I would randomly sample people to get a representative sample of the US population. I

would select a group of 16-50 years old, allowing for some age variation among the respondents.

For 30 years, they would be surveyed and asked about their abortion attitudes, identities, and

strengths every five years. Most of these questions will be from, or influenced by, the 2020

American National Election Survey (ANES) and Pew Research Center questions. Every time the
 8

respondents were surveyed, they would be asked the same questions about their identity and

abortion attitudes. The survey would need to be adjusted if there was some general party flip in

abortion stances, but I anticipate it will remain the same throughout the study. Over time, I can

compare the differences in responses among the same people. I expect to see some fluctuation in

the strength of the partisanship and religiosity variables that correlate with a change in the

strength of a respondent’s abortion attitudes.

Abortion attitudes will be measured through a series of questions that ask people their

opinions on abortions in the United States (Questions 18-22). Participants will be asked

questions that focus on both the legality and morality of abortion. The questions will also

account for the strength of an opinion. For example, someone will be asked if they agree or

disagree that abortion should be legal in all circumstances. After answering all the questions, the

scores will be ranked in an index, and the participants will be given an overall strength of

abortion attitude score. The index score is what I expect to fluctuate over time with identity.

Similarly, for identity, participants will be asked questions about various aspects of their

identity and then how strongly they identify with said identity. Some of the questions will be

phrased as “How important is X identity to you,” and people will be able to rank it on a similar

scale to abortion attitudes. Others will ask them how much they agree with a statement. The

religiosity questions (Questions 14-17) are based on standard questions that participants get

asked in other studies, like the ANES. The main things that will make up a religiosity score are

how often participants go to religious services and how literally participants interpret their

religious texts. Other control variables will be included in each survey, such as age, gender,

ideology, and education (Questions 1-6). However, I do not expect these to have as much of a
 9

statistically significant relationship with the strength of abortion attitudes as my independent

variables of interest.

Discussion and Conclusion

My biggest concern with this type of research design would be attrition, people dropping

out of the study over time for whatever reasons. There are ways to reduce the number of people

dropping out. One way, in particular, is to keep as many of the same interviewers as possible.

Participants respond well when they can continue to speak to the same people over time. Another

way to reduce nonresponses is to keep track of the participants even when they are not asked

survey questions. A great way of doing that would be to offer respondents a monetary reward for

updating their address and contact information whenever it changes. This reward would

incentivize them to contact interviewers and remind them about their survey obligation (Laurie et

al., 1999). Though this is much more time-consuming and expensive, it would also provide much

better data at the end of the survey because retention rates would be much higher.

Another smaller area of concern is respondents giving inaccurate information about

themselves. Sometimes respondents will give what they believe to be the socially desirable

answer but not their actual answer because they believe they would be judged for it. This social

desirability bias results in inaccurate information and can result in surveyors drawing incorrect

conclusions about their sample. I do not think this would be a substantial issue for my survey.

The people would be anonymous, their demographic information only known to me and any

other researchers involved in the study. The research team would likely never know or meet the

study participants in person. The anonymity would remove the incentive to give socially

desirable answers, as there is no one to impress and no one who will judge their answer.
 10

I hope this research will give better insight into how abortion attitudes are formed and

how they change. Previous research has focused on snapshots and has primarily ignored

religiosity. Based on the current literature, I believe that religiosity will cause religion's current

estimated effect to decrease dramatically. Religion will still be a decisive factor, but a better

predictor of abortion attitudes and the change of those attitudes will be religiosity. The panel

survey, done over 30 years, will show how abortion attitudes strengthen and weaken over time in

correlation with my independent variables of interest. In particular, I believe that partisanship

and religiosity will be the strongest predictors of abortion attitude strength, with religiosity

accounting for much of the effect currently attributed to religious affiliation.

An interesting next place to take this abortion attitude research would be back to the short

term, but an experiment based on identity. The research could be a survey experiment where

randomly selected participants would be asked to describe themselves and their identities before

asking questions about abortion. In contrast, others could be asked the same questions about

identities after getting asked their questions about abortion. Comparing the two groups shows

which identities typically rise to the top of the mind before or after considering abortion. This

would help see which identities participants bring to mind when making their abortion attitudes.
 11

References

Adamczyk, Amy, Chunrye Kim, and Leevia Dillon. 2020. “Examining Public Opinion about

Abortion: A Mixed-Methods Systematic Review of Research over the Last 15 Years.”

Sociological Inquiry 90 (4): Pages 920-954.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/soin.12351.

Carsey, Thomas, and Geoffrey Layman. 2006. “Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party

Identification and Policy Preferences the American Electorate.” American Journal of

Political Science 50 (2): Pages 464-477.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x.

Enns, Peter K., and Gregory E. McAvoy. "The role of partisanship in aggregate opinion."

Political Behavior 34, no. 4 (2012): 627-651.

Gay, David, and John Lynxwiler. 2010. “THE IMPACT OF RELIGIOSITY ON RACE

VARIATIONS IN ABORTION ATTITUDES.” Sociological Spectrum 19 (3): Pages

359-377. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.

Jelen, Ted G. "Public Attitudes Toward Abortion and LGBTQ Issues: A dynamic analysis of

region and partisanship." Sage Open 7, no. 1 (2017):

 12

Laurie, Heather, Rachel Smith, and Lynne Scott. 2014. “Strategies for Reducing Nonresponse in

a Longitudinal Panel Survey.” Journal of Official Statistics 15 (2): Pages 269-282.

http://repository.essex.ac.uk/8747/.

Lee, Gangheong, and Joseph N. Cappella. "The effects of political talk radio on political attitude

formation: Exposure versus knowledge." Political Communication 18, no. 4 (2001):

369-394.

Leeper, Thomas J., and Rune Slothuus. "Political parties, motivated reasoning, and public

opinion formation." Political Psychology 35 (2014): 129-156.

MacKuen, Michael, and Courtney Brown. "Political context and attitude change." American

Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 471-490.

PHILPOTT, DANIEL. “Explaining the Political Ambivalence of Religion.” American Political

Science Review 101, no. 3 (2007): 505–25. doi:10.1017/S0003055407070372.

Santhanam, Laura. “How Has Public Opinion about Abortion Changed since Roe v. Wade?”

PBS. Public Broadcasting Service, July 20, 2018.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-has-public-opinion-about-abortion-changed-si

nce-roe-v-wade.
 13

Scott, Jacqueline. 1998. “Generational Changes in Attitudes to Abortion: A Cross-National

Comparison.” European Sociological Review 14 (2): Pages 177–190.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.esr.a018233.

Toff, Benjamin, and Elizabeth Suhay. "Partisan conformity, social identity, and the formation of

policy preferences." International Journal of Public Opinion Research 31, no. 2 (2019):

349-367.

Toor, Meena. 2020. “Demographic Survey Questions That Yield Valuable Insights.” Qualtrics:

Market Research. Qualtrics XM. December 11, 2020.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.

Woodruff, Katie, M. Antonia Biggs, Heather Gould, and Diana Foster. 2018. “Attitudes Toward

Abortion After Receiving vs. Being Denied an Abortion in the USA.” Sexuality Research

and Social Policy 15 (March): Pages 452-463.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s13178-018-0325-1.

2014. “2014 RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE STUDY (RLS-II) MAIN SURVEY OF

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF ADULTS FINAL

QUESTIONNAIRE .” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. May 30, 2014.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.
 14

2021. “THE ANES GUIDE TO PUBLIC OPINION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR.”

American National Election Studies. ANES. August 16, 2021.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.
 15

Appendix A

Identities & Attitudes

Start of Block: Demographics

Gender Q1 - How would you describe your gender?

o Male (1)

o Female (2)

o Non-binary / third gender (3)

o Prefer not to say (4)

Age Q2 - What is your age?

________________________________________________________________

Race Q3 - What ethnic background do you most strongly identify with?

 16

o White/Caucasion (1)

o Asian - Eastern (2)

o Asian - Indian (3)

o Hispanic (4)

o Black/African-American (5)

o Native-American (6)

o Mixed race (7)

o Other (8)

Page Break

Race Identity Streng Q4 - How strongly do you identify with your

${Race/ChoiceGroup/SelectedChoices} ethnic identity?

o Very Strongly (1)

o Strongly (2)

o Somewhat (3)

o Slightly (4)

o Doesn't Matter (5)

Page Break
 17

Education Q5 - What is the highest level of education you have achieved?

o Less than high school (1)

o High school graduate (2)

o Some college (3)

o 2 year degree (4)

o 4 year degree (5)

o Professional degree (6)

o Doctorate (7)

Marital status Q6 - What is your marital status?

o Married (1)

o Widowed (2)

o Divorced (3)

o Separated (4)

o Never married (5)

End of Block: Demographics

Start of Block: Party/Ideology and Strength Of

 18

Political Party Q7 - Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a

Republican, an Independent or something else?

o Democrat (1)

o Republican (2)

o Independent (3)

o Other (4)

Display This Question:

If Political Party = Democrat

Dem Q8 - How would you identify?

o Very Strong Democrat (1)

o Strong Democrat (2)

o Moderate Democrat (3)

o Weak Democrat (4)

o Leaning Democrat (5)

Display This Question:

If Political Party = Republican

Rep Q9 - How would you identify?

o Very Strong Republican (1)

o Strong Republican (2)

 19

o Moderate Republican (3)

o Weak Republican (4)

o Leaning Republican (5)

Strength of party Q10 - How important is your political party to your identity?

o Extremely important (1)

o Very important (2)

o Moderately important (3)

o Slightly important (4)

o Not at all important (5)

Ideology Q11 - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be liberal, conservative,

moderate, or something else?

o Liberal (1)

o Conservative (2)

o Moderate (3)

o Other (4)

Strength of ideology Q12 - How important is your ideology to your identity?

o Extremely important (1)

o Very important (2)

o Moderately important (3)

o Slightly important (4)

 20

o Not at all important (5)

End of Block: Party/Ideology and Strength Of

Start of Block: Religion/Religiosity

Present Religion Q13 - What is your present religion, if any?

o Evangelical Protestant (1)

o Roman Catholic (2)

o Orthodox Christian (such as Greek or Russian Orthodox) (3)

o Latter-Day Saints (LDS) (4)

o Jewish (5)

o Muslim (6)

o Buddhist (7)

o Hindu (8)

o Atheist (9)

o Agnostic (10)

o Something else (11)

o Nothing in particular (12)

Important or not? Q14 - How do you feel about the following statement: I consider my religion,

or lack thereof, to be an important part of my life?

o Strongly disagree (4)

o Somewhat disagree (5)

o Neither agree nor disagree (6)

 21

o Somewhat agree (7)

o Strongly agree (8)

Guidance Q15 - How do you feel about the following statement: My religion or lack thereof

provides a great deal of guidance in my day-to-day life?

o Strongly disagree (1)

o Somewhat disagree (2)

o Neither agree nor disagree (3)

o Somewhat agree (4)

o Strongly agree (5)

Attendance Q16 - Lots of things come up that keep people from attending religious services.

Thinking of your life these days, how often do you go to religious services?

o Every week (1)

o Almost every week (2)

o Once or twice a month (3)

o A few times a year (4)

o Never (5)

Display This Question:

If Present Religion = Evangelical Protestant

Or Present Religion = Roman Catholic

Or Present Religion = Orthodox Christian (such as Greek or Russian Orthodox)

 22

Or Present Religion = Latter-Day Saints (LDS)

Or Present Religion = Jewish

Or Present Religion = Muslim

Or Present Religion = Buddhist

Or Present Religion = Hindu

Or Present Religion = Something else

Literalism Q17 - How do you feel about the following statement: My religion's holy text is the

word of God?

o Strongly disagree (1)

o Somewhat disagree (2)

o Neither agree nor disagree (3)

o Somewhat agree (4)

o Strongly agree (5)

End of Block: Religion/Religiosity

Start of Block: Abortion Attitudes

Opinion Q18 - There has been some discussion about abortion during recent years. Which one of

the opinions below best agrees with your views?

o By law, abortion should never be permitted (1)

o The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is

in danger (2)
 23

o The law should permit abortion other than for rape/incest/danger to woman but only after

need has been clearly established (3)

o By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal

choice (4)

o Other (5)

Morality vs legality Q19 - Which of these statements best describes your opinions on abortion?

o Abortion is morally acceptable and should be legally acceptable (1)

o Abortion is morally acceptable, but should not be legally acceptable (2)

o Abortion is not morally acceptable, but should be legally acceptable (3)

o Abortion is not morally acceptable and should not be legally acceptable (4)

o Other (5)

Q29 Q20 - How strongly do you believe your previously selected abortion opinion?

o Very strongly believe (1)

o Strongly believe (2)

o Somewhat believe (3)

o Slightly believe (4)

o Don't really believe (5)

Court Past Q21 - How do you feel about the Supreme Court's past decisions on abortion rights?

o Extremely displeased (1)

o Somewhat displeased (2)

 24

o Neither pleased nor displeased (3)

o Somewhat pleased (4)

o Extremely pleased (5)

Q22 - How would you feel if the Supreme Court reduced abortion rights in the future?

o Extremely displeased (1)

o Somewhat displeased (2)

o Neither pleased nor displeased (3)

o Somewhat pleased (4)

o Extremely pleased (5)

End of Block: Abortion Attitudes