ENCI 604 , Risk, and Reliability

2.5
a)

Loc. of W1 Loc. of W2 Load at B Load at C MA Probability E1 E2 E3

- - 0 0 0 0.03
- B 500 0 5000 0.045 X
- C 0 500 10000 0.075 X X
B - 200 0 2000 0.05 X X
B B 700 0 7000 0.075 X X X
B C 200 500 12000 0.125 X
C - 0 200 4000 0.12 X
C B 500 200 9000 0.18 X X
C C 0 700 14000 0.30 x

b) From the definition on p.37: The occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the
other. Is there some 2 S such that 2 E1 and 2 E2 ? Yes. When MA = 7000, 9000, 10000.
c) The probability of each MA is tabulated in a)
d)

P(E1 ) = P(MA > 5000) = P(7000) + P(9000) + P(10000) + P(12000) + P(14000) = 0.755
P(E2 ) = P(2000) + P(4000) + P(5000) + P(7000) + P(9000) + P(10000) = 0.545
P(E3 ) = P(2000) + P(7000) = 0.125
P(E1 \ E2 ) = P(7000) + P(9000) + P(10000) = 0.33
P(E1 [ E2 ) = 1 P(0) = 0.97
P(E2 ) = 1 P(E2 ) = 1 0.545 = 0.455

2.8
a)

A = E1 \ (E2 [ E3 )
B = A = E1 \ (E2 [ E3 ) = E1 [ (E2 \ E3 )

b)

P(B) = P(E1 [ (E2 \ E3 ))

î ó _
= P(E1 ) + P(E2 \ E3 ) P(E1 \ E2 \ E3 )
= P(E1 ) + 1 P(E3 | E2 ) P(E2 ) P(E1 )P(E2 )[ 1 P(E3 | E2 )]
0.456
= 0.296

c) The probability of still casting even though concrete production is not feasible is P(E1 )P(E3 |
E2 ) = 0.48

1
2.11
a) We will use L, SA , and SB to denote leakage, seam of sand from X to A, and steam of sand
from X to B respectively. The probability that water in A gets contaminated is

P(L \ SA ) = P(L)P(A) (since they are independent events)

= (0.01)(0.02) = 0.002

b) We wish to find the following:

P((L \ SA ) \
∪(L [ SB )) = P[ L \ (SA [ SB )]
= P(L)P(SA [ SB )
= P(L)[ P(SA ) + P(SB ) P(SA \ SB )]
= P(L)[ P(SA ) + P(SB ) P(SB | SA )P(SA )]
= 0.00046

2.16
a)
With the following definitions:
E1 = Monday is a rainy day
E2 = Tuesday is a rainy day
E3 = Wednesday is a rainy day
we can say

P(E1 ) = P(E2 ) = P(E3 ) = 0.3

P(E2 | E1 ) = P(E3 | E2 ) = 0.5
P(E3 | E2 \ E1 ) = 0.2

b) P(E1 \ E2 ) = P(E1 )P(E2 | E1 ) = 0.15

c)

P(E3 \ E1 \ E2 ) = P(E1 \ E2 )[ 1 P(E3 | E1 \ E2 )]

= 0.12

d)

P(E1 [ E2 [ E3 ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + P(E3 ) P(E1 \ E2 ) P(E2 \ E3 ) P(E1 \ E3 ) + P(E1 \ E2 \ E3 )

= 0.3 + 0.3 + 0.3 (0.3)(0.5) (0.3)(0.5) 0.075 + (0.3)(0.5)(0.2)
= 0.56

where
P(E1 \ E2 ) = P(E1 | E2 )P(E2 ) = (0.5)(0.3) = 0.15
P(E2 \ E3 ) = P(E3 | E2 )P(E2 ) = (0.5)(0.3) = 0.15
Now
P(E1 \ E3 ) = P(E3 | E1 )P(E1 ) = (0.25)(0.3) = 0.075
We can use the concept of total probability to partition the entire space into E2 \ E1 and
E2 \ E1 . These are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, so

P(E3 | E1 ) = P(E3 | E2 \ E1 )P(E2 | E1 ) + P(E3 | E2 \ E1 )P(E2 | E1 )

2
Now, P(E3 | E2 \ E1 ) is taken to just be the probability of rain on a given day, with a value
of 0.3. This may not appear to be a satisfactory argument, but it’s the one the problem
assumes (there are not consecutive days of rain).

P(E3 | E1 ) = (0.2)(0.5) + (0.3)(0.5) = 0.25

2.23
a) The probability of no damage for all earthquakes is P3 (D) = 0.94, for the statistically
independent events.
b) P(D1 \ D2 ) = P(D1 )P(D2 ) = 0.0196

2.28
a)

E1 = RA [ RB
E2 = R
GLT
E3 = (RA \ GB ) [ (GA \ RB )

b)

P(stop at least once) = 1 P(no stop)

=1 P(GA \ GB \ GLT )
=1 P(GLT )P(GA )P(GB | GA )
= 0.92

c)

P(stop at most once from M to N)

=1 P(stop at A and B)
=1 P(RA \ RB )
=1 P(RA )P(RB | RA )
0.6
= 0.09

By using the hint and showing that

1 P(GB | GA )P(GA )
P(RB | RA ) = 1
P(RA )