Second Year Scenario

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Revenue

per unit 1.22

No.of
Revenue No.of occurance
Demand Cost
(D) Price (P) (R)=Dx1.2 (C)=DxP Profit=R-C occurance s/total
2 s occurance
s

144000 1.45 175680 208800 -33120 1 0.0625


Second 144000 1.19 175680 171360 4320 2 0.125
Year 144000 0.97 175680 139680 36000 1 0.0625
Scenario 96000 1.45 117120 139200 -22080 2 0.125
96000 1.19 117120 114240 2880 4 0.25
96000 0.97 117120 93120 24000 2 0.125
64000 1.45 78080 92800 -14720 1 0.0625
64000 1.19 78080 76160 1920 2 0.125
64000 0.97 78080 62080 16000 1 0.0625
1
Expected present profit

Revenue Cost Profit Prob


146400 158400 -12000 0.25
First Year 146400 129600 16800 0.25
Scenario 97600 105600 -8000 0.25
97600 86400 11200 0.25

Expected present profit


Present
Year 100000 122000 120000 2000
Scenario

Present
profit
from all 3
years
Profit with
probability

-2070
540
2250
-2760
720
3000
-920
240
1000
2000
1652.892562

Profit with
probability
-3000
4200
-2000
2800
2000
1818.181818

5471.07438

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