Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 1

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFORESTATION AND SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT GOALS

By

Student no. 21028749

Supervisor: Scott copsey

University of Hertfordshire

June 2nd, 2022

 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 2

Table of Contents

1. Introduction................................................................................................................................3
1.1 Background............................................................................................................................3
1.2 Rationale................................................................................................................................4
1.3 Aims and objectives...............................................................................................................5
2. Methodology...............................................................................................................................5
2.1 Overview................................................................................................................................5
2.2 Tasks......................................................................................................................................5
2.2.1 Search string....................................................................................................................5
2.2.2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria.......................................................................................6
2.2.3 Data evaluation process...................................................................................................7
2.2.4 Biasness risks..................................................................................................................8
3. Project Management.................................................................................................................9
3.1 Schedule.................................................................................................................................9
3.2 Milestones..............................................................................................................................9
3.3 Deliverables......................................................................................................................10
Bibliography.................................................................................................................................11
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 3

1. Introduction

1.1 Background
A rise of more than 1°C would make it more difficult to fulfil the 2015 United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which have already been negatively impacted by
climate change (McKenzie, 2021). In order to meet the temperature targets specified in the Paris
Agreement of restricting warming to "well below" 2°C and "pursuing efforts" toward 1.5°C, the
current mitigation commitments fall short, leading instead to at least 3°C of temperature rise by
2100, putting SDGs at risk (Fuso Nerini et al., 2018). The great share of Integrated Assessment
Model (IAM) paradigms that enable warming to be limited to less than 2°C already include such
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies or processes, with some beginning as early as the
2020s. However, many countries have yet to include CDR into their mitigation policy portfolios,
despite the fact that all mitigation measures must be considered if ambitious temperature
objectives are to be met. Perhaps this hesitancy stems from a lack of knowledge about the long-
term consequences of CDR submissions (McKenzie, 2021).

As the most comprehensive global vision for a better future, the SDGs strive to coordinate global
efforts in this direction (Jiang et al., 2021). As a result, it is possible to map out the wider
ramifications of different CDR actions. A number of mapping projects have focused on the link
between the SDGs and specific topics like energy, urban ecosystems, ecosystem services, or
soils. Some factors such as the lack of adequate SDG operationalization through specific
indicators, as well as the significance of geographic location, resource availability, time horizons
and governance attainment of SDGs restrain the usefulness of the results of these global studies
(Breuer et al., 2019).

Even if strict restrictions are implemented, numerous mitigation scenario models reveal that
negative CO2 emissions are becoming necessary to meet the Paris Agreement climate objective.
Consequently, due to the necessity for such negative emissions, land use plays an important role
in mitigation. GHG emissions caused by land use account for 24% of all anthropogenic
emissions in 2010 (Crippa et al., 2021). However, land use is crucial to two negative GHG
emission choices. As a first step, the use of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage may be
implemented. Afforestation, or the process of adding new trees to existing forests, increases the
amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that plants can store. The vast majority of afforestation
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 4

potential may be found in tropical climates, according to research. In the tropical areas, the
majority of the nations are developing countries with significant investment risks and poor
governance, which makes the efficacy of mitigation strategies very uncertain. In terms of recent
scenarios targeting for 2°C or 1.5°C, as a result of these hazards, afforestation is a critical
technology (Rueda et al., 2021).

Many of the areas that are required to support large-scale afforestation are likely to be used for
other purposes requiring land, like production of food. As a result, food safety may be
jeopardized. Availability, access, usage, and stability are the four pillars upon which the FAO
bases its definition of food security. Examining the significance of afforestation in mitigating
climate change necessitates considering the impact on food security. Food security impacts of
land-based mitigation, such as generation of bioenergy, agricultural emissions taxation, and
afforestation have been examined in a number of studies. Forestry has been linked to decreased
food security, although it's not obvious to what degree that's because to afforestation (Rueda et
al., 2021).

1.2 Rationale
Nature-based climate solutions, also known as Natural Climate Solutions (NCS), are frequently
more cost-effective and scalable than more immature engineering solutions to climate change
(such as direct air capture) (Zoons, 2021). As far as climate change mitigation goes, afforestation
has the most global potential. More than half of the world's restorable territory, which has the
best chances of protecting endangered vertebrate species, might be restored by afforestation. In
contrast to previous research, our investigation will concentrate on the impacts of afforestation
on mitigation routes and food security. As a result, we will be able to give a comprehensive
evaluation of the risks and trade-offs associated with this mitigation technique, which is a critical
component in many climate change mitigation scenarios. To fill up these knowledge gaps, the
current review—which is based on expert elicitation—expands on the existing CDR literature to
identify new possible advantages and dangers of CDR. Climate engineering knowledge has
already been integrated across disciplines, and our contribution builds on that work and
incorporates wider insights from GHG emission reduction policies and sustainable governance
into our understanding of how various CDR approaches can be used to achieve sustainable
development.
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1.3 Aims and objectives

This research aims to evaluate the potential carbon removal using afforestation and determine
how much this pathway could contribute to emission reduction target as stated in the UN
Sustainable Development Goals.

Following are the objectives of the study:

 To evaluate the role of afforestation in mitigating climate change.

 To determine how afforestation can contribute towards the achievement of the
Sustainable Development Goal.
 To determine the risks and trade-offs associated with the mitigation technique of
afforestation.
 To identify the existing knowledge and literature gaps by highlighting the risks and
advantages of afforestation.

2. Methodology
2.1 Overview
The methodology selected for this research is Systematic literature review (SLR)
approach. Using SLRs, also known as systematic reviews, researchers may locate, assess, and
synthesize the most recent research on a certain topic. A thorough empirical assessment with
minimal bias is possible with SLR since it restricts the collection of literature.  It is the goal of a
systematic review to put together a comprehensive picture of a given issue and to fairly
summarize the available research. The first phase of an SLR is to identify the study's primary
question. The SLR will be guided by this central question. Interviewing experts in the subject
field, doing broad Online searches, or reviewing pertinent literature sources may all assist define
it in terms of empirical information (Tsafnat et al., 2014; Munn et al., 2018). For the current
study the main question is, what is the role of afforestation in overcoming global warming and
achieving SDGs? The most relevant SDGs in this regard are SDG-13: climate action and SDG-
15; life on land.
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 6

2.2 Tasks
2.2.1 Search string
Following the completion of the preliminary study, the researchers compiled a list of pertinent
keywords taking into consideration the research topic. Pilot inquiries have been conducted in
order to fine-tune the keywords included in the search string through a process of trial and error.
In the subsequent phase of the systematic screening, the researchers will remove any terms that
did not produce any additional publications. The researchers will be using a number of
international electronic repositories, such as Scopus, Google Scholar, IEEE, ScienceDirect, and
Web of Science, amongst others, in order to filter out the findings. The scope of this
investigation included articles on afforestation initiatives and their role in achieving the SDG-13
and SDG-15 and mitigating climate change. The scope of the investigation included the years
2000 through 2020 as its chronological rang for screening literature.

Table 1: Keywords searched for current study

Afforestation Reforestation Forest Rehabilitation Ecosystem

restoration

Plantation Climate change Climate action Global warming Climate change

mitigation

SDGs SDG-13 SDG-15 Forests GHGs

2.2.2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Following is the inclusion criteria for the screening of articles:

 The study should be original research.

 It should be published in an internationally verified peer-reviewed journal.
 The aim of the study should be in accordance with the current study’s research question.
 It should include empirical research methodology.
 The study should be published within a time frame of 2010-2020.
 The study should include at least two of the above listed keywords (Table 1).
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The exclusion criteria specified for this research included:

 The study which does not meet the inclusion criteria.

 The study is a review article.
 It is not written in English language.
 The study is not exploring the relationship between afforestation and climate change
mitigation.
 The study is not using an objective method to explore the impact of afforestation on
achieving SDGs.

2.2.3 Data evaluation process

During data assessment, reviewers evaluate each article and determine which will be included in
this study. Researchers from two different institutions will undertake the review at the same time.
The following actions will be taken to analyze the data (Selçuk, 2019). The data evaluation
framework which will be employed is PRISMA analysis and the workflow this framework is
presented in Figure 1.

a) Title analysis

On the basis of the title, each of the reviewers will determine whether or not the article addresses
the primary topic.  In this stage of the process, a search is conducted considering the title of
articles for keywords that are pertinent to the primary inquiry or goals. The reviewer will next
decide whether or not to accept the manuscript for the subsequent phase of being reviewed. It is
necessary to go through this stage to get rid of any documents that have nothing to do with the
topic that has been looked for.

b) Abstract assessment

At this stage, it is essential to determine whether or not the screened articles answer the primary
issue being posed.

c) Diagonal reading

In this phase, the reviewers will evaluate the introduction, figure and table captions, and findings
of the articles that have been selected for this level. The reviewers will check to see whether the
particular questions are relevant to the SLR's goal and better explain the core issue. To ensure the
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 8

terms selected in the database searches were suitable, they will also conduct a review of the
results.

d) Full-script review

Finally, the reviewers will examine the complete text of the papers and score them using a
grading methodology. Each manuscript has particular questions that must be answered by all
reviewers. This means that reviewers will award the research either (2) or (1) depending on how
well it fulfills each particular question. If it fails to meet any of these three criteria, a score of (0)
is given. This is an empirical assessment, which means it is based on the reviewer's experience
and expertise. The article will be featured in the SLR listing if it has a score of at least six out of
ten (60 percent).

Figure 1: PRISMA flowchart

 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 9

2.2.4 Biasness risks

It is essential, while doing a systematic review, to get rid of any prejudice and give equal weight
to the findings of studies that come to opposite results. It has been decided to use the most
current version of the McMaster critical review form in order to reduce the likelihood of their
being any bias in the selected pieces of research literature, particularly those that include
quantitative data. In order to arrive at impartial conclusions, many experts employ this kind of
analysis. Discussion with a third party was included if there was a disagreement about bias or
data extraction methods among researchers in this study

3. Project Management
3.1 Schedule

3.2 Milestones
The project has been divided into five major milestones. All the milestones are time bound and it
will be ensured that the objectives or targets enclosed within that particular milestone are
achieved in the allotted time.

Milestone Activities Date

Milestone-I The targets of this milestone included 20th May 2022
preliminary research regarding the
topic of the proposal. For this
extensive secondary data-based
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 10

research have been carried out to reach

a novel topic.
Milestone-II This includes the specification of the 22nd May 2022
research questions and study aims. In
addition, the study methodology has to
be specified as well.
Milestone-III During this milestone, keywords are 24th May 2022
specified along with the inclusion and
exclusion criteria for the selection of
studies.
Milestone-IV This comprises of the data evaluation 26th May 2022
of the shortlisted studies which
included the title assessment, abstract
analysis, and overall script analysis.
Milestone-V The composition of the final research 7th June 2022
proposal will be done as part of this
final milestone.

3.3 Deliverables
Following are the deliverables of the project:

Deliverable Date

Outline development 22nd May 2022

Defining search string 23rd May 2022

Defining exclusion and inclusion criteria 24th May 2022

PRISMA framework development 29th May 2022

Bias risk assessment 2nd June 2022

Initial proposal development 4th June 2022

 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 11

Review of proposal 6th June 2022

Final edits and completion 7th June 2022

Submission 7th June 2022

Bibliography

Breuer, A., Janetschek, H. and Malerba, D., 2019. Translating sustainable development goal
(SDG) interdependencies into policy advice. Sustainability, 11(7), p.2092.

Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Tubiello, F.N. and Leip, A.J.N.F.,
2021. Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nature
Food, 2(3), pp.198-209.

Fuso Nerini, F., Tomei, J., To, L.S., Bisaga, I., Parikh, P., Black, M., Borrion, A., Spataru, C.,
Castán Broto, V., Anandarajah, G. and Milligan, B., 2018. Mapping synergies and trade-offs
between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Energy, 3(1), pp.10-15.

Jiang, P., Klemeš, J.J., Van Fan, Y., Fu, X., Tan, R.R., You, S. and Foley, A.M., 2021. Energy,
environmental, economic and social equity (4E) pressures of COVID-19 vaccination
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McKenzie, M., 2021. Climate change education and communication in global review: Tracking
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Research, 27(5), pp.631-651.

Munn, Z., Peters, M.D., Stern, C., Tufanaru, C., McArthur, A. and Aromataris, E., 2018.
Systematic review or scoping review? Guidance for authors when choosing between a systematic
or scoping review approach. BMC medical research methodology, 18(1), pp.1-7.

Rueda, O., Mogollón, J.M., Tukker, A. and Scherer, L., 2021. Negative-emissions technology
portfolios to meet the 1.5° C target. Global Environmental Change, 67, p.102238.

Selçuk, A.A., 2019. A guide for systematic reviews: PRISMA. Turkish archives of

otorhinolaryngology, 57(1), p.57.
 Global Climate Change Afforestation And Sustainable Development Goals 12

Tsafnat, G., Glasziou, P., Choong, M.K., Dunn, A., Galgani, F. and Coiera, E., 2014. Systematic
review automation technologies. Systematic reviews, 3(1), pp.1-15.

Zoons, T., 2022. Regeneration at the Coast: Benefits for Community and Climate-A New
Framework for Impact Assessment of Mangrove Restoration (Master's thesis).