The Weather Forecast

Factory

D r. J a v i e r A m e z c u a
How do we forecast the
weather?
 W e a t h e r vs. climate

W e a th er C lim a te

Instantaneous Description of w h a t
description of what weather is usually
the a t m o s p h e r e is like in a region
(large or small).
doing at a particular
time and place.
N o t just the
a v e ra g e weather,
but a description of
what the e x t r e m e s
are like too.
 Why is it useful to
predict the weather?
 Can weather be predicted?

Sir Robert Fitzroy

1. Extrapolate from observations

Some phenomena precede periods of 'good' or 'bad' weather.

It is more useful in some regions than in others.
2. Trend forecasting

The 'weather systems' travel in preferential directions.

This is different for different regions of the world.
3. Analog forecasting

Look at previous cases, identify a similar situation, and see what

happened in that case.
 What if we recognise
that we are working
with a physical
system?

The previous methods have limitations since the

atmosphere is chaotic!
Atmospheres
A gaseous layer covering a planet. Not every planet
has an atmosphere*.

M ercury Venus Earth

The equations that govern the atmosphere

• Variables
Ideal gas

Continuity (air)

Continuity (water vapor)

1st Law of
Thermodynamics

Navier-Stokes

Vilhelm Bjerknes (1904):

Solve them!
(Numerical) solution

5
The observing system
7
Lewis Fry Richardson
(1881-1953)

A famous British
meteorologist.

The weather can be forecast

by solving equations which
represent the atmosphere.

He did a backcasting for

surface pressure between
4UTC and 10UTC for 1 0 June
1 9 1 0 in Germany.
Richardson’s Model Grid
Richardson (1922)

p~ 145hPa
 Richardson (1922)

p~ 145hPa

The answer may be wrong, but the method is the success!

Liverpool Manchester Lincoln Cromer

Brecon Birmingham Rugby Norwich

Bath Reading London

English
Weymouth Portsmouth
Channel
• We will predict the tem p erature at each g rid-
point:
1. Collect data about winds and temperatures at
our grid-point and to the north and west.
2.Fill in information on computing form.
3.Complete calculation.
4. Communicate prediction to other grid-points
and forecast central (me).
5. WAIT until EVERYONE has finished their
calculation!
6. Repeat

• Each calculation will predict the temperature

one hour ahead.
S olutions
Initial Conditions
Timestep 1
Timestep 2
Timestep 3
Timestep 4
S k ill
Predictability limit
Evolution of the 500-hPa geopotential height in CP