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Physica A: Xiao-Tian Wang, Zhong-Feng Zhao, Xiao-Fen Fang
Physica A: Xiao-Tian Wang, Zhong-Feng Zhao, Xiao-Fen Fang
Physica A
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/physa
highlights
• We have proposed a mixed hedging strategy to price options.
• Risk preference parameter µ and scaling δ t have the important influences on the effective cost.
• We get that the mixed hedging strategy is better than the delta hedging in some cases.
• The relation between scaling and portfolio hedging is discussed.
1. Introduction 1
Over the last few years, the financial markets are regarded as complex and nonlinear dynamic systems. A series of studies 2
have found that many financial market time series display scaling laws and long-range dependence [1–8]. Therefore, it has 3
been suggested that one should consider the influence of the scaling laws and the trading frequency on option pricing 4
and portfolio hedging [1–8]. The interest in option pricing has dramatically increased since the publication of the works of 5
Black and Scholes [9] and Merton [10]. An essential feature of their approaches is that the trading is assumed to make in a 6
continuous-time manner so that the price of any option does not depend on the time scaling and investors’ risk preferences 7
(scaling-free pricing and preference-free pricing). However, it is well known that continuous trading is an abstraction, which 8
is physically impossible in actual markets. In practice, the investors revise the option risk from time to time and make the 9
revisions be in accordance with the Black–Scholes–Merton prescription. But as far as Black–Scholes model is concerned 10
without the continuous time trading assumption, the market is no longer complete, therefore the option price cannot be 11
✩ This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11071082, 11271140).
∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: swa001@126.com (X.-T. Wang).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.021
0378-4371/© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.
2 X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
1 determined by the no-arbitrage argument alone. In fact, as it will be shown in this paper, that the trading frequency and the
2 trade scaling (i.e., the spacing between consecutive financial transaction) as well as the residual risk play an important role
3 in option pricing and portfolio hedging.
4 The problem of hedging the option and portfolio in an incomplete market in a discrete time trade case has been
5 studied by many authors starting with Boyle and Emanuel [11], Leland [12], and Wilmott [13,14] up to more recent works
6 [15–20]. Many econophysicists are interested in analyzing financial time series through using different time scaling δ t from
7 hourly through daily to weekly and monthly, then compare and interrelate the results within the same study. In particular,
8 Mantegna and Stanley [1–4] introduced the method of scaling invariance from complex science into economic systems for
9 the first time. Since then, a lot of research on scaling laws in finance has taken place. Mandelbrot [5,6] and Mantegna and
10 Stanley [1,2] considered the problem of choosing the appropriate time scaling to use for analyzing financial market data
11 and pricing option. Bouchaud and Potters et al. [7,8] made a discussion on the relation between continuous-time trade and
12 discrete-time trade in option pricing and introduced an asymptotic approach allowing one to tackle the residual risk as well
13 as proposed to find the optimal strategies that minimize the hedging error. In this paper, on basis of the points of view of
14 econophysics [1,2,5–8], we will propose a mixed hedging strategy to price the option.
15 This paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, a mixed hedging strategy for option pricing is obtained, and we show
16 that the residual risk and trade scaling play an important role in the Black–Scholes option pricing model. In Section 3 some
17 examples are given to show that the generalization of the delta hedging strategy X1 (t ) (i.e., mixed hedging strategy) is an
18 improvement over the Black–Scholes delta hedging in some cases. Section 4 concludes.
20 In this section a mixed hedging strategy is given, and we show that the trading frequency and the scaling (i.e., the spacing
21 between consecutive financial transaction) as well as the residual risk play an important role in the Black–Scholes case while
22 the continuous time trading assumption is given up.
23 Consider a simple financial market model with constant coefficients, which consists of a stock and a bond with price
24 dynamics given by
25 St = S0 eµt +σ Bt , (2.1)
26 and
27 Dt = D0 ert , (2.2)
28 where µ, σ ̸= 0, S0 > 0, r > 0, t ∈ [0, T ], T ∈ R fixed, and {Bt }t ∈[0,T ] a standard one dimensional Brownian motion
29 on a complete probability space (Ω , Ft , P ) which is equipped with the P-augmentation {Ft }t ∈[0,T ] of the natural Brownian
30 filtration.
31 After a small time interval δ t, the price changes in the bond and in the stock are
δ Dt = rDt δ t + O (δ t )2 ,
32 (2.3)
σ2
δ St = St eµδt +σ δBt − 1 = St µδ t + σ (1 + µδ t ) δ Bt + (δ Bt )2 + G1 (δ t ) ,
33 (2.4)
2
34 and
σ 2 δt
35 E [δ St ] = St µδ t + + E [G1 (δ t )]. (2.5)
2
36 On the other hand, since
E [δ St ] = St E eµδ t +σ δ Bt − 1
37
σ2
38 = St [e(µ+ 2 )δt − 1]
σ 2δt
= St µδ t + + O (δ t )2 ,
39 (2.6)
2
40 substituting Eq. (2.5) into Eq. (2.6) we get that
E [G1 (δ t )] = O (δ t )2 .
41 (2.7)
k=3
k!
∞
(2µδ t + 2σ δ Bt )k ∞
2(µδ t + σ δ Bt )k
= St (µδ t + σ δ Bt ) +
2 2
− 3
k=3
k! k=3
k!
∞
(2µδ t + 2σ δ Bt )k ∞
2(µδ t + σ δ Bt )k
= St σ (δ Bt ) + 2µσ δ t δ Bt + (µδ t ) +
2 2 2 2
− 4
k=3
k! k=3
k!
2µδ t +2σ δ Bt µδ t +σ δ Bt
E [(δ St ) ] =
2
St2 E [e − 2e + 1] 9
2
(2µ+2σ 2 )δ t (µ+ σ )δ t
= St2 [e − 2e 2 + 1] 10
σ2
= St2 (2µ + 2σ 2 )δ t − 2 µ + δ t + O((δ t )2 ) 11
2
= St2 [σ 2 δ t + O((δ t )2 )] 12
= St2 σ δ t + O((δ t ) ),
2 2
(2.9) 13
Let C = C (t , St ) be the value of a European call on the above underlying stock at time t with expiration date T and 20
C (T , ST ) = (ST − X ) +
at t = T , (2.12) 22
and C (t , 0) = 0, 23
Consider a replicating portfolio Πt with X1 (t ) units of the stock and X2 (t ) units of the bond. The value of the portfolio is 25
given by 26
After the time interval δ t, the change in the value of the portfolio is 28
δ Πt = X1 (t )δ St + X2 (t )δ Dt . (2.14) 29
Since C (t , S ) is assumed to have continuous partial derivatives up to order two, the change in the value of the option is 30
∂C ∂C 1 ∂ 2C
δC = δt + δS + (δ S )2 + G3 (δ t ), (2.15) 31
∂t ∂S 2 ∂ S2
where E [G3 (δ t )] = o(δ t ). (2.16) 32
∂C ∂C 1 ∂ 2C
δ C − δ Πt = − rX2 (t )Dt δ t + − X1 ( t ) δ S + (δ S )2 + G3 (δ t ) 34
∂t ∂S 2 ∂ S2
2
= A1 (t )δ t + Ai+1 (t )(δ S )i + G3 (δ t ), (2.17) 35
i =1
4 X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
1 where
∂C
2 A1 (t ) = − rX2 (t )Dt , (2.18)
∂t
∂C
3 A2 (t ) = − X1 (t ), (2.19)
∂S
1 ∂ 2C
4 and A3 (t ) = . (2.20)
2 ∂ S2
5 From Eqs. (2.4), (2.8) and (2.17)–(2.20) we have
σ2
6 δC − δ = A1 (t )δ t + SA2 (t ) µδ t + σ (1 + µδ t )δ Bt + (δ Bt )2 + A2 (t )G1 (δ t )
t
2
+ S A3 (t ) 2µσ δ t δ Bt + σ (δ Bt )
2 2 2
+ A3 (t )G2 (δ t ) + G3 (δ t ).
7
8 Thus
δC − δ = (A1 (t ) + A2 (t )S µ) δ t + σ (1 + µδ t )SA2 (t ) + 2µσ S 2 A3 (t )δ t δ Bt
9
σ2
10 + SA2 (t ) + σ 2 S 2 A3 (t ) (δ Bt )2 + G4 (δ t ), (2.21)
2
11 where
12 G4 (δ t ) = A2 (t )G1 (δ t ) + A3 (t )G2 (δ t ) + G3 (δ t ),
13 and
15 We aim to minimize some functional form of the hedging error, i.e., we consider minimizing
16 Var X1 (t ) (δ C − δ Πt ). (2.23)
17 Furthermore, we will show that the appropriate option price can be given by solving the following optimization problem
18 for the minimum:
20 subject to
21 E (δ C − δ Πt ) = 0, (2.25)
22 and
23 C (t , St ) = Πt
24 = X1 (t )St + X2 (t )Dt . (2.26)
25 In the following we will give a solution for the mean–variance optimal problem which satisfies Eqs. (2.24)–(2.26).
26 Firstly, from Eq. (2.21) we have
σ2
27 E δC − δ = (A1 (t ) + A2 (t )S µ) δ t + SA2 (t ) + σ 2 S 2 A3 (t ) δ t + E [G4 (δ t )]. (2.27)
t
2
σ2
29 A1 (t ) + µS + S A2 (t ) + σ 2 S 2 A3 (t ) = 0. (2.28)
2
30 Secondly, from Eqs. (2.21), (2.27) and (2.28) we have
2
Var (δ C − δ Πt ) = σ (1 + µδ t )SA2 (t ) + 2µσ S 2 A3 (t )δ t δ t + E [G5 (δ t )],
31 (2.29)
32 where
∂[Var (δ C − δ Πt )]
= 0. (2.31) 2
∂ X1 (t )
Therefore from Eq. (2.29) and the condition (2.31), we obtain that 3
∂C µδ t ∂ 2 C
X1 (t ) = + S, (2.32) 4
∂S 1 + µδ t ∂ S 2
which is a mixed hedging strategy of the delta and the gamma and which is the generalization of the delta hedging strategy 5
of the Black–Scholes–Merton. 6
Finally, substituting Eqs. (2.18)–(2.20), (2.26) and (2.32) into Eq. (2.28), we get that 7
(r − µ − σ2 )µδ t 2 ∂ 2 C
2
∂C ∂C σ2
+ rS + + S = rC , (2.33) 8
∂t ∂S 2 1 + µδ t ∂ S2
where 9
21
2(r − µ − σ2 )µδ t
2
σ̂ = σ 2 + > 0 as δ t is small enough. (2.34) 10
1 + µδ t
12
C (t , St ) = C0 (t , St ) 13
−r (T −t )
= St N (d1 ) − X e N (d2 ), (2.35) 14
d1 = √ , (2.36) 17
σ̂ T − t
√
and d2 = d1 − σ̂ T − t. 18
20
C (t , St ) = C0 (t , St )
= St N (d1 ) − X e−r (T −t ) N (d2 ), (2.37) 21
σ2
ln (St /X ) + (r + )(T − t )
d1 = √ 2
, (2.38) 22
σ T −t
√
and d2 = d1 − σ T − t. 23
3. A numerical comparison of the X1 (t ) hedging and the delta hedging in portfolio management 24
Mantegna and Stanley [1–4], Bouchaud and Potters et al. [7,8], and Wilmott [13,14] discovered that the scaling law and 25
the risk preference parameter µ play an important role in option pricing and pointed out that it must be measured in some 26
cases. In this section, we examine the effect of the trading frequency (i.e., fractal scaling) and the mixed hedging strategy on 27
the portfolio hedging errors of the option pricing models. We consider daily, weekly, two-weekly, and monthly frequencies 28
as the rebalancing frequency and get that the X1 (t ) hedging is better than the delta hedging in some cases. 29
Now, we distinguish and analyze the final hedging costs and the effective costs of the hedging strategy. Recall that the 30
final hedging cost of a call option is given by (i.e., see Refs. [19,21]) 31
Table 3.1.1
Simulation of delta hedging per day with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum, volatility
σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/252 years.
Day Stock price Delta Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Table 3.1.2
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per day with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum, volatility
σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/252 years.
Day Stock price X 1 (t ) Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
1 or
Table 3.2.1
Performances of delta hedging and X1 (t ) hedging per week across the different exercise prices with the expected return rate µ1 = 0.13 per annum
(δ t = 52
1
).
Exercise price Delta X 1 (t )
In the money Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio
Table 3.2.2
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per week with an exercise price X = $50, free risk rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum, and
volatility σ = 0.2 per annum (δ t = 52
1
).
Week Stock price X 1 (t ) Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Example 3.1. We use, as an example, the position of a financial institution that has sold for $420,000 a European call 1
option on 100,000 shares of a non-dividend-paying stock. We assume that the stock price is $49, the strike price is $50, 2
the risk-free interest rate is 5% per annum, the stock price volatility is 20% per annum, the time to maturity is 20 days 3
(T = 20/252 years), and the expected return µ1 from the stock is 13% per annum. With our usual notation, this means that 4
Under the conditions of Example 3.1, from Eqs. (2.37) and (2.38) we obtained the following results. 8
The Black–Scholes price of the option is about $75,504.953. The hedge is assumed to be adjusted or rebalanced daily. By 9
Day20, the total cost of writing the option and hedging is $77909.793 (see Table 3.1.1). 10
If this total cost is discounted to the beginning of the period, it is equal to $77601.240, which is close to the Black–Scholes 11
price 75,504.953. 12
8 X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 3.2.3
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per week with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum,
volatility σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/52 years.
Week Stock price X 1 (t ) Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
1 The error ratio of the Black–Scholes delta hedging is (77601.240 − 75, 504.953)/75, 504.953, which is close to
2 0.027763577.
3 In particular, in the Black–Scholes case we did not consider the impact of the fractal scaling δ t (i.e.,1/52 × 5) on the delta
4 hedging.
Table 3.2.4
Simulation of the delta hedging per week with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum,
volatility σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/52 years.
Week Stock Delta Shares Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest Option price
price purchased including interest cost
Table 3.2.5
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per week with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05, expected return rate µ = 0.11, volatility σ = 0.2 per
annum, and T = 20/52 years.
Week Stock price X 1 (t ) Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Under the conditions of Example 3.1, if the time to maturity is assumed to be 20 weeks, and the formulas (2.32) and 1
(2.35) are assumed to be held, as δ t = 1/52 years (i.e., approximately one week), Tables 3.2.3 and 3.2.4 are the simulations 2
of the X1 (t ) hedging and the delta hedging when the stock price is a downward trend. 3
Under the conditions of Example 3.1, if the time to maturity is assumed to be 20 weeks, and the formulas (2.32) and 4
(2.35) are assumed to be held, as δ t = 1/52 years (i.e., approximately one week), Tables 3.2.5 and 3.2.6 are the simulations 5
of the X1 (t ) hedging and the delta hedging when the stock prices are fluctuations. 6
From Tables 3.2.1–3.2.6, we know that the X1 (t ) hedging is better than the delta hedging whether the stock price per 7
Under the conditions of Tables 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, Table 3.2.7 is the simulations of the X1 (t ) hedging and the delta hedging 9
when expected return rate µ is assumed to varied, if the formulas (2.32) and (2.35) are assumed to be held, as δ t = 1/52 10
years (i.e., approximately one week) with σ = 0.20, T = 0.5769, S0 = 49, X = 50, and r = 0.05. 11
10 X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 3.2.6
Simulation of delta hedging per week with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum, volatility σ = 0.2
per annum, and T = 20/52 years.
Week Stock price Delta Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Table 3.2.7
Performances of the delta hedging and X1 (t ) hedging per week with the varied expected return rate µ(δ t = 1
52
).
µ Delta X1 (t )
Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio
Table 3.3.1
Performances of the delta hedging and X1 (t ) hedging per two week across different exercise prices (δ t = 2
52
).
Exercise price Delta x1 (t )
In the money Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio
1 In Table 3.2.7, it has been shown that risk preference parameter µ has an important influence on the effective cost
2 and the hedging error ratio in the case of the X1 (t ) hedging, even if it does not play any role in the case of the delta
3 hedging.
5 In Tables 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, if δ t is assumed to be 2/52 years (i.e., approximately two weeks), and the formulas (2.32) and
6 (2.35) are assumed to be held with S0 = 49, X = 50, r = 0.05, σ = 0.20, µ1 = 0.13, and T = 0.5769, Tables 3.3.1 and
7 3.3.2 are the simulations of the X1 (t ) hedging and the delta hedging.
X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx 11
Table 3.3.2
Performances of delta hedging and X1 (t ) hedging per two week with the varied expected return rate µ, but with the fixed exercise price X = $50 (δ t = 2
52
).
µ Delta X 1 (t )
Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio Hedging cost Effective cost Hedging error ratio
Table 3.4.1
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per month with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum,
volatility σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/12 years.
Month Stock price X 1 (t ) Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Table 3.3.1 reports that hedging error ratio of the X1 (t ) hedging is smaller than the delta one at the end of the period 1
except for X = 70, 75, and 80. From Table 3.3.1, we know that the X1 (t ) hedging strategy is better than the delta one 2
Moreover, in Table 3.3.2, it is shown that risk preference parameter µ has an important influence on the effective cost 4
and the hedging error ratio in the case of the X1 (t ) hedging, even if it does not play any role in the case of the delta 5
hedging. 6
Under the conditions of Example 3.1, if the time to maturity is assumed to be 20 months, and the formulas (2.32) and 8
(2.35) are assumed to be held, as δ t = 4/52 years (i.e., approximately one month), Tables 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 are the simulations 9
From Tables 3.4.1 and 3.4.2, we know that the X1 (t ) hedging strategy is an improvement over the Black–Scholes delta 11
Example 3.2. Performance of X1 (t ) hedging for a call option underlying the stock of PingAn Insurance Company of China, Ltd 13
(Stock code:601318). The data set of stock prices comes from the soft of Tong Da Xin. To illustrate the typical performance 14
of X1 (t ) hedging, we consider weekly observations during the period from 2013/02/22 to 2013/07/21. A 20-week maturity 15
From Tables 3.4.3 and 3.4.4, we also know that the X1 (t ) hedging strategy is an improvement over the Black–Scholes 17
delta hedging in some sense and that risk preference parameter µ has an important influence on the hedging error ratio in 18
the case of the X1 (t ) hedging, even if it does not play any role in the case of the delta hedging. 19
12 X.-T. Wang et al. / Physica A xx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 3.4.2
Simulation of delta hedging per month with an exercise price X = $50, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.11 per annum,
volatility σ = 0.2 per annum, and T = 20/12 years.
Month Stock price Delta Shares purchased Cost of shares purchased Cumulative cost Interest cost Option price
including interest
Table 3.4.3
Simulation of X1 (t ) hedging per week with an exercise price X = $40, risk-free rate r = 0.05 per annum, expected return rate µ = 0.27 per annum,
volatility σ = 0.30 per annum, and T = 20/52 years.
Week Date Stock Shares Cost of shares Cumulative cost Interest Option price
price purchased purchased including interest cost
Table 3.4.4
Performances of delta hedging and X1 (t ) hedging per week with the varied expected return rates µ, or with the varied exercise price X, as risk-free rate
r = 0.05 per annum, volatility σ = 0.30 per annum, and T = 20/52 years are fixed.
µ(X = 40) Hedging error ratio X (µ = 0.27) Hedging error ratio
X1 (t ) Delta X 1 (t ) Delta
Remark 1. In the daily and weekly rehedging cases, there is only an error ratio correction of one or three percent, but the 1
X1 (t ) hedging is still important for the hedgers if the shares purchased are large (i.e., see, Tables 3.1.1, 3.1.2, 3.2.1–3.2.7, 2
3.4.3 and 3.4.4). When the large δ t can be experienced, this error ratio correction can reach five or six percent, a value that 3
cannot be ignored (i.e., see, Tables 3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.4.1 and 3.4.2). Furthermore, when some typical value µ can be experienced, 4
the error ratio correction can also reach five or six percent (i.e., see, Table 3.3.2). On the other hand, Wilmott has concluded 5
that in trending markets when large µ can be experienced the daily correction such as the X1 (t ) hedging can reach five or 6
ten percent; and more importantly, in trending markets, the corrected delta will give a better risk reduction since it is in 7
effect an anticipatory hedge: the variance is minimized over the time horizon until the next rehedge. This has been called 8
Remark 2. In real markets, the rebalancing frequency should be dynamic and determined by the fluctuation of stock price, so 10
the weekly and two-weekly rebalancing frequency might cause the doubtful results. However, from the point of view of the 11
fractal market hypothesis [23–25], financial markets are considered as complex systems consisting of many heterogeneous 12
traders who are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizons. The behavior of a day trader is quite 13
different from that of a pension fund. In the former case, the investment horizon is measured in minutes; in the later case, 14
in months or in years. The impact of information is largely dependent on each individual’s investment horizon. Different 15
investor horizons lead to different trade decisions. There would be no liquidity, if information had the same impact on all 16
investors. 17
4. Conclusion 18
In this paper, we have proposed a mixed hedging strategy to price options. It has been shown that risk preference 19
parameter µ and fractal scaling δ t as well as residual risk have important influences on the effective cost and the hedging 20
error ratio in option pricing. In particular, we get that the mixed hedging strategy is better than the delta hedging in some 21
cases. 22
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