Argus Potash

Formerly Argus FMB Potash

Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Executive summary Prices

Key potash prices $/t

More Asian tenders emerge 30 Mar 23 Mar ±
Most activity this week has centred on Asia where demand Argus standard MOP index, points 180.323 183.456 u
is evidenced by several purchase tenders. Pupuk Indonesia’s MOP – fob standard bulk
standard MOP tender remains in the spotlight, but has yet Vancouver 371-423 387-422 u
MOP – cfr standard bulk
to be officially awarded. It is understood the company will
Southeast Asia 450-485 450-485 34
likely award 150,000-200,000t to Eurochem, which gave the
MOP – granular bulk
lowest offer at around $450/t cfr. In Malaysia, Nafas issued a US Nola fob, $/st 362.0-370.0 365.0-377.0 u
tender to buy 20,000t of standard MOP. In Nepal, India’s IPL Thailand/Vietnam cfr 570-580 570-580 34
submitted the sole offer under a recent tender offering to Brazil cash cfr 440-460 460-470 u

supply 5,000t of standard MOP. The offer price will be opened Europe cfr, €/t 570-670 570-680 u
Australia cfr 615-690 615-690 34
on 2 April. Any prices emerging from these tenders will help
South Africa cfr 515-530 515-530 34
to provide some guidance in such an illiquid market though
SOP – fob standard bulk
Pupuk’s tender will hold the most importance given its size. Northwest Europe, €/t 700-750 700-800 u

To access the online Argus Fertilizer Price Guide click here

Market drivers

Belarus and Germany top up Indian MOP stocks Argus standard MOP index
India received around 92,000t of MOP in March, of which 450
50,000t was from Germany and the balance from Belarus.
Another vessel from Belarus is reported to be loading for 400
India. These deliveries should help to top up India’s stocks
350
as sales continue for the kharif season, and relieve some
pressure on India from having to sign the contract. But stock
300
levels are still low historically. hh
250
UN urges Lithuania to review Belarusian MOP
transit ban 200
A UN committee has recommended that the Lithuanian
150
government should review its decision which prohibits the
Mar 22 Jul 22 Nov 22 Mar 23
transit of Belarusian fertilizer.
Index rebased to 100 as of 1 June 2017  Source: Argus, weighted using IFA export data

30-60 day Outlook

Data & Download updates

Bearish „„ Brazilian MOP imports
Pressure will continue to build on suppliers if global trade
„„ Indian MOP imports
does not reactivate soon, forcing suppliers to accept lower
„„ US potash trade flow
bids. But demand will remain at a low ebb as prices fall
further as buyers will not commit to large volumes. If India „„ Ukrainian MOP imports
signs a new contract soon, this will likely prompt more „„ Russian potash exports
trades.

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 Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Key MOP prices $/t Potash prices $/t

30 Mar 23 Mar ±

MOP cfr Brazil MOP cfr NWE Spot prices

MOP cfr SE Asia MOP fob NOLA Argus standard MOP index, points 180.323 183.456 -3.13
1,250 MOP – fob standard bulk
Vancouver 371-423 387-422 -7.50
1,000 Northwest Europe 386-693 386-703 -5.00
Baltic/Black Sea 359-403 358-413 -4.50
750 hhhhhh Jordan 390-682 410-692 -15.00
Israel 390-684 410-694 -15.00
500 Chile 404-688 424-697 -14.50
MOP – fob granular bulk
250
Vancouver 391-518 411-517 -9.50
Northwest Europe 416-714 437-725 -16.00
0
Baltic/Black Sea 403-489 423-488 -9.50
2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 Jordan 410-703 430-714 -15.50
Israel 410-705 430-716 -15.50
Chile 424-709 444-719 -15.00
Asia MOP – cfr standard bulk
Southeast Asia 450-485 450-485 nc
MOP – fob granular bulk

China US Nola, $/st 362.0-370.0 365.0-377.0 -5.00

MOP – cfr granular bulk
Bearish sentiment remains on weak demand. Major
Brazil cash 440-460 460-470 -15.00
importers are still not keen to conclude a new annual Europe, €/t 570-670 570-680 -5.00
contract price because of ample spot cargo availability and Australia 615-690 615-690 nc
falling prices. South Africa 515-530 515-530 nc

Distributors cut prices further to boost sales, but trading Thailand/Vietnam 570-580 570-580 nc
SOP – fob standard bulk
activity remains limited. Prices for 62pc white MOP fell to
Northwest Europe, €/t 700-750 700-800 -25.00
Yn3,200-3,300/t ex-warehouse in eastern China. Prices for SOP – fob granular
60pc granular MOP were at Yn3,400-3,500/t on the back of Northwest Europe bulk, €/t 750-770 800-850 -65.00
small buying from blenders in northeast China. East Asia bagged 620-675 640-675 -10.00
MOP port inventories remained around 2mn t, and stocks Nutrient values
MOP fob northwest Europe K2O 899 908 -9.00
in bonded warehouses were stable from last week.
SOP fob northwest Europe K2O 1,550 1,602 -52.00
QHSL set the provisional price for its 60pc white/crystal Implied premium for low-chlorine
651 694 -43.00
MOP at Yn3,500/t delivered in April, but if buyers take 100pc product
of their monthly contract volume, cargoes will be priced at Latest Previous
Yn3,200/t cash first stop. Contract prices
MOP – fob standard bulk
Vancouver 552-554 223-403 +240.00
Northwest Europe 538-545 193-367 +261.50
China’s MOP port stocks (monthly average) mn t Baltic/Black Sea 529-538 202-395 +235.00
Jordan 542-556 219-406 +236.50
mn t 2021 2022 2023 Israel 542-556 219-406 +236.50
3.0 MOP – cfr standard bulk
India 180 days 590 445 +145.00

2.5 China 590 247 +343.00

2.0
MOP Fundamentals mn t
1.5 2021* 2022** 2023**

Demand 71.2 59.6 67.2

1.0
Achievable production 76.2 77.9 81.0
Operating Rate (Production/
0.5 96% 78% 82%
Nameplate Cap)
*estimated — Argus Media
0.0 ** projected
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Issue Ref: 290388

Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

India MOP vessel line-up

Apr-Dec 22 (t) 1,999,018 ± % Apr 21-Nov 21 -10%
Seller/Buyer Vessel Tonnes Load Port Discharge Port Arrival

Total 304,769 April

Total 164,173 May
Total 160,479 June
Total 236,426 July
Total 192,454 August
Total 261,715 September
Total 290,381 October
Total 196,315 November
Total 179,763 December
Total 211,290 January
Total 37,500 February
China Minerals Resources/IPL Elina B 41,725 St Petersburg (Belarus) Kandla 2-Mar
RCF/K+S Santa Francesca 50,000 Vancouver Hay Bunder 30-Mar

NOP
NOP prices widened to Yn5,400-5,600/t ex-works from
Yn5,500-5,600/t last week because of softer MOP prices, but
most major producers maintained offer levels.
Export offers edged down to $960-980/t fob amid low buy-
ing and a bearish sentiment in international markets.
Thailand
No new indications for granular or standard MOP emerged
following indications last week at $570-580/t cfr for granular
product for second-quarter shipment.

India
The Indian import line-up shows 50,000t of standard MOP
arrived from K+S at Hay Bunder this week. Indian imports
have been slow because of the lack of a new contract price.
In March, just two vessels arrived totalling around 92,000t.
Another vessel from Belarus is reported to be currently
loading for India.
Nepal
There is an ongoing tender by Krishi Samagri Company
Limited to buy standard MOP. The tender was initially issued
on 20 January. India’s IPL submitted the sole offer to supply
5,000t of standard MOP. The offer price will be opened on 2
April.
Malaysia
National Farmers Organisation (Nafas) issued a tender to buy
20,000t of red or pink standard MOP, closing on 31 March.
Delivery is requested to the port of Penang in two lots
of 10,000t. The first 10,000t lot should be delivered by the
second week of May and the second lot by the second week
of June.
Offers should be valid for 14 days after the tender closing
date.
Indonesia
Pupuk Indonesia has yet to make official awards under its
standard MOP buy tender which closed on 21 March. But it
is understood that Pupuk intends to award 150,000-200,000t
to Eurochem, which submitted the lowest price at around
$450/t cfr.
Vietnam
Laotian standard MOP was indicated at around $400/t ex-
works in jumbo bags.
Some importers are anticipating second-quarter standard
MOP prices at $420-430/t cfr.
In the domestic market, an importer is selling Israeli
standard and granular MOP at 12,500dong/kg ($532/t), Rus-
sian granular MOP at 12,600 dong/kg ($536/t) and Canadian
granular MOP at 12,100dong/kg ($515/t). All prices are on a
bagged ex-warehouse basis.
Philippines
MOP imports in January rose sharply to 26,300t from 2,300t
a year earlier, latest GTT data show. Canada was the
leading supplier during the month delivering 19,500t to the
Philippines. This was followed by Uzbekistan with 3,900t
versus 425t a year ago.
Australia
No fresh granular MOP indications for second-quarter
loading emerged this week. In the domestic market, there
is reasonable demand for MOP from growers. Most importers
have healthy MOP inventories for now, and additional
imports from now until late 2023 are expected to be limited.

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Europe gMOP cfr Europe vs milling wheat futures €/t

The European potash market remains sluggish. Buying has Milling Wheat Futures MOP NW Europe
been largely restricted to truckloads only with no desire 1,000
among buyers for large volumes amid the continued bearish
sentiment. There may only be a few weeks left of the spring 800

season, which is dependent on weather. The spring season

600
so far has been particularly weak so far this year. Enquiries hhhh
are now largely price checking exercises and bids for both 400
standard and granular product have dropped down to the
€400s/t cfr, a level which no supplier is ready to entertain 200
just yet. But such enquiries show that there is interest to
buy but only if prices come down further. 0
Granular MOP of Russian origin is on offer in northwest 16 Oct 20 13 Aug 21 10 Jun 22 17 Mar 23

Europe at €570-605/t cfr for end April/early May shipment.

But prices are higher in countries such as Germany for prod-
uct from other origins. Granular MOP prices in Europe have

Argus Consulting
drifted lower at the high-end this week to €570-670/t cfr.
Negotiations for second-quarter standard MOP contracts

Services
commenced this week. Latest indications suggest that
standard MOP prices are largely in the range €500-550/t cfr.
But buyers are reported to be targeting below €500/t cfr for
next sales. Overall, high prices, ample supply and reduced
Bespoke projects
operating rates among NPK producers are keeping standard
MOP buyers out of the market.
Long-term

EU states to vote on €56mn emergency cereals aid Mid-term

EU member states are to vote on a proposed package of
€56mn of compensation for Bulgarian, Polish and Romanian Short-term
farmers due to losses incurred because of increased imports
of Ukrainian cereals and oilseeds.
Commodity market expertise
Continue reading>>
International networks

Belgium Trusted data

Israeli and Canadian granular MOP is reported at €670/t fca
Antwerp.
Providing clients with:
Germany
Granular MOP has been indicated at around €680/t fca • Business strategy support
Rostock. But demand is weak. • Access to the local and global energy
commodity market
Romania
There is limited availability of MOP in the domestic market • Customized market analysis
which is restricted to just a few truckloads. Despite the lack • Supply and demand, trade and price forecasts
of demand, granular MOP is priced at €790/t fca bagged.
• Training
Spain
It has emerged that three workers died in a tunnel collapse
at ICL's Suria site in early March but this has not impacted Click here to find out more »
operations at the mine, which continues to run as normal.

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

FSU end of potash exports through the port from 1 February

Belarus
UN urges Lithuania to review Belarusian MOP transit ban
A UN committee has recommended that the Lithuanian
government should review its decision which prohibits the
transit of Belarusian fertilizer.
In a report published by the Committee on Economic,
Social and Cultural Rights on 3 March, it said that such mea-
sures have affected the price of fertilizers and contributed
to fertilizer shortages in Africa and Latin America and in
turn adversely impacted food security in those regions.
The port of Klaipeda in Lithuania was previously the main
export hub for Belarusian potash producer Belaruskali, which
markets its products globally through BPC. But this transit
option ceased in February 2022 after state-owned company
Lithuanian Railways said that it would not satisfy requests to
transport cargoes from Belaruskali until it has approval from
its government to do so. The decision resulted in a complete
2022 and BPC was forced to declare force majeure on its
potash deliveries.
Klaipeda typically handles 9mn-11mn t/yr of Belarusian
MOP, according to Argus estimates, with 11.1mn t arriving
in 2021. No single port can replace Klaipeda's capacity, and
BPC has been forced to seek alternative export options — at
extra cost and with longer lead times.
The majority of Belarusian potash is now being exported
out of Russia with St Petersburg its main export hub. Last
year, Belarus railed close to 2mn t to various Russian ports.
BPC has still been able to send potash by rail to China,
which has been a key outlet. But capacity is limited. In
2022, total rail shipments to China amounted to 956,000t
compared with just 2,000t in 2021.

St Petersburg MOP vessel line-up: Oct-Mar (incl combo shipments) *not final destination
Vessel DWT Departure Destination Country Destination Port

Sifnos 57,050 27-Mar TBC TBC

Lila II 34,549 18-Mar Brazil Santos
WL Murom 24,199 14-Mar Brazil Itaqui
Pluto 32,092 6-Mar Brazil Itaqui
WL Uglich 24,199 25-Feb Uruguay Nueva Palmira
RIA 34,039 15-Feb Brazil Aratu
Mike Bay 36,447 13-Feb Singapore* TBC
WL Pacific 34,000 13-Feb Brazil Itaqui
Pisti 56,898 3-Feb Honduras* Puerto Cortes
Skywalker 63,056 7-Feb US New Orleans
Monegasque Epee 33,190 2-Feb Brazil Itaqui
Iirmgard 38,167 29-Jan Brazil Vitoria
30 Augustos M 52,667 13-Jan Mexico Vera Cruz
Mykonos 23,456 9-Jan Brazil Itaqui
Osiris 53,589 8-Jan Spain Las Palmas
Agapi S 62,145 2-Jan Brazil Aratu
Agia Fotini 38,140 2-Jan Brazil Recife
Union Trader 57,700 1-Jan US New Orleans
Zografia 56,894 1-Jan Brazil Santos
Shimanami Star 28,447 28-Dec Brazil Paranagua
Peridot 56,724 18-Dec US New Orleans
Ivory Gull 32,929 13-Dec Brazil Itaqui
Valentin Butuzov 63,516 10-Dec TBC TBC
Pluto 32,092 29-Nov Brazil Maceio
Madrid 30,900 27-Nov Brazil Vila do Conde
WL Atlantic 33,465 26-Nov Brazil Itaqui
Ionna D 35,000 24-Nov Brazil Paranagua
Golden Day 75,595 19-Nov Egypt* TBC
Othrys 63,596 19-Nov Peru Paita
Xin Hai Tong 27 56,738 16-Nov US New Orleans
Chrysanthe 32,500 14-Nov Mexico Vera Cruz
Panstellar 76,602 13-Nov Egypt* TBC
Pegasus 34,958 6-Nov Uruguay Nueva Palmira
Sintra 56,118 28-Oct US New Orleans
Advance 55,638 24-Oct China Yantai
Van Bonita 53,383 21-Oct China Qingdao
MV Artemis A 57,000 21-Oct US New Orleans
Marem 34,148 17-Oct Brazil Maceio
Dema M 32,259 12-Oct Indonesia Bontang
Liberator 28,414 9-Oct Indonesia Gresik
Atlas S 33,166 8-Oct Brazil Itaqui

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Soybean futures vs Brazil gMOP

Latin America

MOP ($/t) (RH scale) Soybeans (¢/bushel) (LH scale)

1,800 1,200
Brazil
The Brazilian market remains slow and prices have continued 1,700
to erode amid the bearish sentiment. The price of granular 1,000
1,600
MOP has dropped to $440-460/t cfr from $460-470/t cfr last
week. Belarusian MOP is reported in a wide range of $410- 1,500 800
450/t cfr.
1,400
Some small sales are taking place but most buyers are re- 600
luctant to commit to large volumes as prices continue to fall 1,300
globally. Suppliers are opting to move product primarily to
1,200 400
their own distribution systems rather than lower prices while 16 Dec 21 19 May 22 13 Oct 22 23 Mar 23
others with more limited outlets have been forced to lower
prices in order to entice sales.

Granular MOP cfr Brazil price $/t

Mato Grosso’s 2023-24 corn crop costs rise slightly
Production costs in Brazil's Mato Grosso state for the 2023-
24 corn crop slightly rose in February amid an increase in 1,400
fertilizer costs.
1,200
Continue reading>>
1,000
Mexico
800 hhhh
Granular MOP prices have been discussed at around $445/t
cfr west coast Mexico but no sale is understood to have 600
concluded.
400

200
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Brazil Potash line-up: Selected March berthings — Unimar

± % Jan-Feb
Jan-Feb 23 total (t): 1,310,747 -21% Mar total: 970,400 ± % Mar 22: 10%
22:
Port Vessel Charterer Origin Product Volume Receiver ETA ETB

Antonina Irmgard Uralkali Russia MOP 13,500 TPPF 28-Feb 2-Mar

Santos Pelagiani SQM Chile MOP 26,000 Yara 15-Feb 2-Mar
Santos Pelagiani SQM Chile MOP 26,000 Yara 15-Feb 2-Mar
Rio Grande Alda K+S Germany MOP 4,500 Josapar 3-Mar 3-Mar
Santos Konya Canpotex Canada MOP 25,725 Adufertil 3-Mar 3-Mar
Santos Konya Canpotex Canada MOP 10,200 Mosaic 3-Mar 3-Mar
Itaqui Port Oshima K+S Germany MOP 27,500 Tocantins 4-Mar 4-Mar
São Francisco Do Sul Fassa ICL Israel MOP 10,000 TBC 23-Feb 4-Mar
Itaqui WL Pacific Uralkali Russia MOP 19,735 Fertgrow 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 6,100 Heringer 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 6,000 Cibra 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 6,000 Agro São Luiz 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 6,000 Coonagro 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 2,000 Brfertil 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Gentle Seas Eurochem Russia MOP 500 Fertiman 5-Mar 6-Mar
Paranagua Konya Canpotex Canada MOP 17,566 Mosaic 1-Mar 7-Mar
Rio Grande Nordsun K+S Germany MOP 10,000 Yara 28-Feb 7-Mar

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Santos Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 18,375 Mosaic 15-Feb 8-Mar
Santos Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 3,000 Yara 15-Feb 8-Mar
Rio Grande Irmgard Uralkali US MOP 8,500 Piratini 7-Mar 9-Mar
Paranagua Cape Cross Canpotex US MOP 18,375 Mosaic 10-Mar 10-Mar
Paranagua Cape Cross Canpotex US MOP 10,000 Araguaia 10-Mar 10-Mar
Rio Grande Fassa ICL Israel MOP 10,000 Piratini 9-Mar 10-Mar
Rio Grande Fassa ICL Israel MOP 7,350 Unifertil 9-Mar 10-Mar
Salvador Ria Uralkali Russia MOP 11,950 Fertipar 9-Mar 10-Mar
Salvador Ria Uralkali Russia MOP 2,000 Nutrisoya 9-Mar 10-Mar
Aratu Pelagiani SQM Chile MOP 3,400 SQM 11-Mar 11-Mar
Paranagua Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 20,313 TBC 12-Mar 12-Mar
Itaqui Pegasus Eurochem Russia MOP 10,000 Fertipar 12-Mar 12-Mar
Itaqui Pegasus Eurochem Russia MOP 4,000 Alz 12-Mar 12-Mar
Paranagua Rostrum Enbel Russia MOP 43,815 TBC 12-Mar 12-Mar
Maceió WL Pacific Uralkali Russia MOP 5,250 Fertial 13-Mar 14-Mar
Itaqui Port Tokyo Canpotex Canada MOP 9,989 Mosaic 14-Mar 15-Mar
Paranagua Nordsun K+S Canada MOP 9,008 Fertipar 12-Mar 15-Mar
Paranagua Nordsun K+S Canada MOP 2,000 Terrena 12-Mar 15-Mar
Paranagua Nordsun K+S Canada MOP 2,000 Adubos Real 12-Mar 15-Mar
Paranagua Nordsun K+S Canada MOP 2,000 Rifertil 12-Mar 15-Mar
Paranagua Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 15,267 Mosaic 15-Mar 16-Mar
Paranagua Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 4,046 Araguaia 15-Mar 16-Mar
Paranagua Desert Honour Canpotex Canada MOP 1,000 Brfertil 15-Mar 16-Mar
Itacoatiara KP Albatross ICL Israel MOP 15,000 Amaggi 11-Mar 16-Mar
Santos Yasa Aysen Canpotex Canada MOP 20,000 Yara 16-Mar 17-Mar
Santos Yasa Aysen Canpotex Canada MOP 12,000 Mosaic 16-Mar 17-Mar
Itaqui Ria Uralkali Russia MOP 10,000 Alz 19-Mar 19-Mar
Itaqui Ria Uralkali Russia MOP 5,250 Fertipar 19-Mar 19-Mar
Itaqui Ria Uralkali Russia MOP 2,500 Fertgrow 19-Mar 19-Mar
Rio Grande Red Orchid Canpotex Canada MOP 24,575 Mosaic 16-Mar 19-Mar
Rio Grande Red Orchid Canpotex Canada MOP 10,220 Cibra 16-Mar 19-Mar
Antonina Santa Ines K+S Germany MOP 12,000 TPPF 22-Mar 22-Mar
Santarem Adventurer Eleva Quimica Russia MOP 17,000 Eleva Quimica 16-Mar 22-Mar
Santarem Adventurer Eleva Quimica Russia MOP 13,835 Tecnogran 16-Mar 22-Mar
Sao Francisco Do Sul Strategic Spirit ICL United Kingdom Polysulphate 10,000 ICL 22-Mar 22-Mar
Vila Do Conde Port Oshima K+S Germany MOP 22,000 Tocantins 10-Mar 22-Mar
Pecem Gdynia ICL Israel MOP 10,500 Ourofertil 23-Mar 23-Mar
Santos Port Tokyo Canpotex Canada MOP 23,100 Yara 24-Mar 24-Mar
Paranagua Kalliopi S BPC Russia MOP 16,500 TBC 23-Mar 26-Mar
Santos Kociewie ICL Israel MOP 25,000 Amaggi 19-Mar 26-Mar
Itaqui Pluto Uralkali Russia MOP 19,500 Fertgrow 28-Mar 28-Mar
Paranagua Lmz Pluto Eurochem Russia MOP 20,000 TBC 23-Mar 28-Mar
Rio Grande Santa Ines K+S Germany MOP 10,000 Yara 27-Mar 28-Mar
Santarem Monegasque Epee Uralkali Russia MOP 22,000 Campo Rico 24-Mar 28-Mar
Itaqui S Breeze TBC Russia MOP 17,180 Rt Grãos 25-Mar 29-Mar
Paranagua Pegasus Eurochem Russia MOP 18,450 TBC 24-Mar 29-Mar
Santos Dream Star Canpotex Canada MOP 69,051 Mosaic 11-Mar 29-Mar
Santos Dream Star Canpotex Canada MOP 6,000 BR Fertil 11-Mar 29-Mar
Salvador Belaja K+S Canada MOP 5,000 Yara 27-Mar 30-Mar
Salvador Belaja K+S Canada MOP 5,000 SQM 27-Mar 30-Mar
Salvador Belaja K+S Canada MOP 2,000 Heringer 27-Mar 30-Mar
Itaqui Gdynia ICL Israel MOP 10,000 Bunge 29-Mar 31-Mar
Paranagua Belmondo Canpotex Canada MOP 28,500 LDC 25-Mar 31-Mar
Paranagua Belmondo Canpotex Canada MOP 13,154 Yara 25-Mar 31-Mar
Paranagua Belmondo Canpotex Canada MOP 9,917 Nutrien 25-Mar 31-Mar
Porto Alegre WL Uglich Uralkali Russia MOP 8,878 Piratini 31-Mar 31-Mar
Porto Alegre WL Uglich Uralkali Russia MOP 2,200 3Tentos 31-Mar 31-Mar
Rio Grande Kociewie ICL Israel MOP 15,126 Piratini 31-Mar 31-Mar

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Snapshot - World potash prices/netbacks

sMOP spot
$359-403/t fob
Baltic/Black Sea

sMOP spot gMOP spot sMOP contract

$371-423/t fob €570-670/t cfr $590/t cfr
sMOP spot
Vancouver northwest Europe China
$390-682/t fob
Jordan
sMOP spot
$390-684/t fob sMOP spot
gMOP spot Israel $450-485/t cfr
$362.0-370.0/st fob S.E. Asia
barge Nola sMOP contract gMOP spot
$590/t cfr $570-580/t cfr
sMOP = standard India Thailand/Vietnam
gMOP = granular gMOP spot
$440-460/t cfr
t = tonne Brazil
st = short ton gMOP spot
$515-530/t cfr gMOP spot
South Africa $615-690/t cfr
fob Australia

contract
cfr
Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

North America Also this week, Mosaic said it anticipates its potash ship-
ments for the first quarter of 2023 will be near the lower
end of its prior sales guidance of 1.8mn-2mn t, with MOP
US pricing at the mine at $400-440/t. In late February, Mosaic
Granular US MOP barge prices fell this week on trade for projected pricing at $425-475/t.
imported tons. Mosaic sold 1.1mn t of potash in January and February, up
The MOP range dropped to $362-370/st fob Nola from from 1.05mn t a year earlier.
$365-377/st last week. Suppliers earlier this year were anticipating an increase in
A prompt barge selling at $362/st fob Nola on Wednesday potash prices in the near term because of a projected strong
framed the low end of the range. Imported MOP barges for rebound in demand and global supply constraints. But barge
prompt delivery also traded this week at $365-366/st fob prices have continued to edge lower after showing signs of
Nola and $370/st, capping the range’s high end. stabilising in late February and early March.
Offers for imported tons for April delivery were also heard gMOP barge fob Nola range $/st
at $370/st fob Nola.
No domestic barge trades were reported this week.
900
MOP barge trading has ticked up in the past couple of
800
weeks as activity has increased at some river and inland
warehouses. And some buyers may have more time to line 700
up supply for the spring as lingering cold and rainy weather, 600
particularly in the western US, may potentially delay wide- 500 hhhh
spread applications. The National Weather Service forecast
400
on Wednesday below-normal temperatures persisting in
300
much of the western half of the US over the next two weeks
as well as higher-than-normal chances of rain across most of 200
the country. 100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

SOP Europe
SOP prices continue to follow the downward trend in the
MOP market with standard prices slipping to €700-750/t fob
India northwest Europe and granular to €750-770/t fob northwest
IFFCO has confirmed awards to trading firm RNZ to purchase Europe.
2,100t of water-soluble SOP at around $594/t cfr via a At the distributor level, prices have widened as some
tender held in mid-March. The cargo will be sourced from distributors are trying to liquidate stocks and are dropping
Indonesia, Taiwan, China or Egypt. offers as a result, while other distributors are maintaining
higher levels in order to recoup some of the costs after buy-
Pakistan ing the stocks at much higher levels.
Pacific is currently working on an expansion project to ramp
up its water-soluble SOP production from 20,000t/yr to Europe SOP vs MOP fob €/t
35,000t/yr at its Barket plant located at Port Muhammad Bin
sSOP fob Northwest midpoint (LHS)
Qasim, Karachi. It is expected to complete this project by sMOP fob Northwest midpoint (LHS)
the third quarter of this year. sSOP premium versus sMOP (RHS)
1,250 400
Domestic SOP demand is slow at the moment amid the
seasonal lull as well as Ramadan but buying interest is ex- 1,000 300
pected to pick up after April.
750 200
China
500 100
China’s domestic SOP prices softened further owing to lower
MOP prices and limited demand from NPK plants. 250 0
Prices for Mannheim 52pc powdered/50pc granular SOP
edged down to around Yn3,900/t ex-works in eastern China, 0 -100
from Yn3,900-4,000/t last week. Prices for 50pc powdered 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

SOP dropped by Yn100/t on the week to Yn3,700-3,800/t

ex-works.
Deliveries from Luobupo are still limited because of low Argus Special Report
rail capacity, which is helping to support its current offer at
Yn3,800/t delivered. Hydrogen – Hope or Hype?
In the export market, major suppliers reduced offers to
$620-640/t fob for April shipment in response to lower inter-
national prices.

Granular SOP bagged fob east Asia $/t

Hydrogen offers a lot of hope as an important

1,200
element in the world’s move to a lower-carbon
1,100 economy, but it is also subject to a lot of hype —
about its growth potential, about the ease with
1,000 which it can be transported and traded, about its
scalability and cost.
900 hhhh
This special report digs into the challenges and
800 provides a realistic assessment of the plans that
are taking shape, and the kind of hydrogen
700 market that could develop.

600
31 Mar 22 28 Jul 22 24 Nov 22 30 Mar 23 Find out more in our Hydrogen Special Report
download now

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Potash freight $/t

Argus provides a trusted and Loading Destination MOP '000t 30 Mar 23 Mar ±

independent view into the Baltic Sea Brazil 30-40 27-47 27-47 34

changing energy landscape. Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea
SE Asia
China
25-30
60-65
66-116
46-81
67-117
45-79
u
t
Baltic Sea US Nola 50-55 25-44 24-42 t
Hamburg Brazil 30-35 23-25 22-24 t

How is the
Red Sea WC India 25-30 26-28 26-28 34
Vancouver China 60-65 26-28 28-30 u

global energy system

Vancouver SE Asia 25-30 61-63 62-64 u
Vancouver Brazil 30-35 48-50 48-50 34

transforming? Argus freight rates are assessed in consultation with producers,

traders and buyers and freight broker service provider Nueva Seas.

Key freight rates from Baltic region $/t

Visit the Argus Energy Transition Hub Brazil (30-40kt) SE Asia (25-30kt)
for the latest news and insights China (60-65kt) US Nola (50-55kt)
150.00
www.argusmedia.com/energy-transition »
125.00

100.00
hhhhhh
75.00

50.00

The global 25.00

31 Mar 22 28 Jul 22 24 Nov 22 30 Mar 23

energy transition Key freight rates from Vancouver, Canada $/t

As commodity markets evolve, Brazil (30-35kt)

China (60-65kt)
SE Asia (25-30kt)

so does our coverage. 125.00

100.00

75.00
Visit the Argus Energy Transition Hub hhhhhh
50.00
for the latest news and insights
www.argusmedia.com/energy-transition » 25.00

0.00
31 Mar 22 28 Jul 22 24 Nov 22 30 Mar 23

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

New and recent MOP mines

Production Nameplate capacity Estimated produc- Projected produc- Projected produc-
Company (Mine name) Region, Country
start (mn t/yr KCl) tion 2021 (mn t) tion 2022 (mn t) tion 2023 (mn t)

2018 K+S Kali (Bethune) Saskatchewan, Canada 4.00 1.90 2.10 2.20
2019 Eurochem (Usolskiy) Palashersk, Russia 4.70 2.39 2.20 2.60
2021 Eurochem (VolgaKaliy) Volgograd, Russia 2.30 0.23 0.28 0.48
2021 Belaruskali Petrikov, Belarus 1.50 0.37 0.22 0.48
2021 ICL Suria, Spain 1.35 0.60 0.88 1.08

New MOP capacity (Firm), 2022-25

Company Site Date ± Capacity mn t/yr Status

Capacity expansion at current mine. Construction completed, commis-

Asia Potash Dong Tai 2023 1
sioning underway
Arab Potash Safi, Jordan 2023 0 Capacity expansion at current mine. Construction underway
Capacity expansion at current mine underway, commissioning not
Uralkali Solikamsk-3, Russia 2024 0.60
started
Asia Potash Dong Tai 2023 1.00 Capacity expansion at current mine. Construction underway
Uralkali Ust-Yavya, Russia 2024 2.50 Financing and construction in progress
Uralkali Solikamsk-2, Russia 2026 1.20 Brownfield expansion. Construction at shaft-sinking phase
Total 6.44

MOP: Summary of production curtailments/losses and sales reductions

Country Company Event/ Impact Period Reason

No MOP production for commercial sales during

Ongoing since
Chile SQM January-May 2023. Only MOP output will be for Focus on lithium output and NOP sales over MOP sales
2017
NOP production.
Little production as a result of technical difficulties. Re-
Turkmeni- Turkmenkhi- Ongoing since
Little production at 1.4mn t/yr Garlyk mine ports of ore quality and flooding issues, and legal issues
stan miya March 2017
with Belarusian mine builder Belgorkimprom
Production curtailed at 1.3mn t/yr Colonsay
Ongoing since Mine curtailed in response to slower than expected
Canada Mosaic mine. Mosaic expects to restart Colonsay opera-
December 2022 demand
tions within the first half of 2023.
Reduced from US and EU sanctions, combined with severe disruption to
Belarus Belaruskali Output from potash mines reduced
February 2022 trade routes
Ongoing since Impact of Russia/Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanc-
Russia Eurochem Seaborne potash exports constrained
February 2022 tions
Ongoing since Impact of Russia/Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanc-
Russia Uralkali Seaborne potash exports constrained
February 2022 tions

New SOP capacity (Firm and probable), 2023-24

Company Site Date ± Capacity '000 t/yr Status

Anshan Tairun Fertil-

Anshan 2023 60.00 Construction underway, completion delayed to 2023
izer
Expansion of existing 40,000t/yr plant, FEED and financing complete,
Anda Migao Suihua, China 2023 40.00
construction underway
Eurochem Migao Qujin, China 2023 240.00 Construction underway, completion delayed to 2023
Construction underway, plan to start production at 20,000t/yr capacity
Agven Gwadar, Pakistan 2023 40
in April
Expansion of existing 20,000t/yr plant, environmental impact assess-
Tianshan Huyang Tiemneguan, China 2023 40
ment ongoing
Luntai Stanley Bazhou, China 2023 20 FEED complete, environmental impact assessment ongoing
Jaingxi Xinlianxin Jiujiang, China 2024 40 FEED complete, environmental impact assessment ongoing
Chuanhua Beihai, China 2024 240 Phase II expansion to double capacity on site. Construction underway
Total 720.00

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Argus Potash Issue 23-13  |  Thursday 30 March 2023

Potash sales selection

Origin Seller Buyer Destination ’000t Price Shipment

Jordan APC PPL India 60 $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22

Jordan APC IPL India 275 + 100 options $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Israel ICL IPL India 600 + 50 options $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Israel ICL CNAMGPC, CNOOC, Sinofert China 700 + 250 options $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex CNAMGPC, CNOOC, Sinofert China TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex CIL India TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex IRC Agro India TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex Mosiac India TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex Chambal India TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex PPL India TBC $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22
Canada Canpotex IPL India 175 $590/t cfr Feb-Dec 22

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