Launch Mission Execution Forecast

Mission: Falcon 9 Starlink 5-10

Issued: 26 Mar 2023 / 1130L (1530Z)
Valid: 29 Mar 2023 / 1601 – 1954L (2001 – 2354Z)

Forecast Discussion: Another hot and sunny day is expected across the Spaceport as a surface front remains stalled
across the Deep South, and a mid-level ridge remains anchored in the western Atlantic. The Florida Peninsula will
remain within the warm sector of the stalled front until an upper-level trough finally swings the front through late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, bringing showers to the state. While the surface front will likely have passed through the
Spaceport when the launch window opens Wednesday afternoon, a deck of mid-level clouds may linger across Central
Florida. As a result, the main concern for the primary launch window will be the Thick Cloud Layers Rule, followed by
Liftoff Winds.
High pressure builds into the eastern US Thursday, clearing skies and veering winds onshore. The only distant
weather concern for the backup launch window will be for Liftoff Winds.

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints1

Launch Day

40% Primary Concerns: Thick Cloud Layers Rule, Liftoff Winds

Weather Conditions Additional Risk Criteria2

Clouds
Weather/Visibility: None / 7 mi. Upper-Level Wind Shear: Low-Mod
Type Coverage Base (ft) Tops (ft)

Temp/Humidity: 73°F / 60% Altostratus Broken 15,000 19,000 Booster Recovery Weather: Low

Liftoff Winds (200’): 030° 17 - 22 mph Solar Activity: Low

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints

24-Hour Delay

10% Primary Concerns: Liftoff Winds

Weather Conditions Additional Risk Criteria

Clouds
Weather/Visibility: None / 7 mi. Upper-Level Wind Shear: Low
Type Coverage Base (ft) Tops (ft)

Temp/Humidity: 74°F / 60% Cumulus Few 3,000 4,000 Booster Recovery Weather: Low

Liftoff Winds (200’): 070° 15 – 20 mph Solar Activity: Low

1. The Probability of Violation (PoV) is the chance of a local safety or customer constraint violation occurring any random time during the launch window.
Notes

2. Additional Risk Criteria, which are not included in the PoV, are mission-specific constraints that may not include all phenomena within each risk factor.

See https://www.patrick.spaceforce.mil/Portals/14/Weather/LaunchFAQ.pdf for more information

Next Forecast Will Be Issued 27 MAR 2023