2022 - Annual Climate Report in Mindanao

Climate in Mindanao 2022
PRELIMINARY
Foreword 2
Citizen’s Charter 4
Introduction 5
Rationale 7
Abstract 8
Message by Weather Services Chief 10
CLIMATE REVIEW 12
La Niña and the “Triple-Dip” 13
2022 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events 18
Climate Types in Mindanao 21
CLIMATE ANALYSIS 23
Rainfall Monitoring 24
Rainfall Impact Assessment 37
Temperature Monitoring 44
Anomaly Time Series of All Mindanao Synoptic 51
Stations
Climatological Extremes 57
CLIMATE OUTLOOK 59
El NIño-Southern Oscillation Status 60
Rainfall Forecast: March 2023 - August 2023 62
Temperature Forecast 64
MPRSD PRODUCTS AND SERVICES 66
REFERENCES 47
1
FOREWORD
There is still HOPE.
After more than two years of gloomy alternating lockdowns,

restrictions, and new outbreaks, life slowly returned to normal in
early 2022. Though it is unlikely to return to the world it was before,
many trends in science and technology are being accelerated by the
impact of the pandemic.
The Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

endured and remained committed to its mission of delivering reliable
and relevant weather-related information, products and services to
develop communities resilient to typhoons, floods, rain-induced
landslides, storm surges, extreme climatic events, climate change
and astronomical hazards.
Local weather forecasts, advisories and warnings; local climate

advisories and outlooks; tropical cyclone updates, bulletins, and
warnings; and flood advisories are some of the pertinent information
continuously disseminated locally which were strengthened and
widen with the utilization of various social media and messaging
platform. Mindanao PRSD also contributed in the equipping of the
Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Officers
(LDRRMOs), emergency responders, DRRM coordinators, and the
general public through training and lectures conducted face to face,
via videoconferencing, or blended approach.
Aside from the challenges that our government faced in the effort to
manage the outbreak or return to normalcy, our country also
struggled with the impacts of the La Niña. In the Philippines, La Niña
increases the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall conditions
2
that could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall,

floods, flash floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas.
These natural phenomena, which can lead to catastrophic events,
are beyond our control, but how we deal with and manage their
impact is within our control.
Despite the tussle with the limited resources and shortage of

personnel, Mindanao PRSD was able to provide uninterrupted public
service. Kudos to all Mindanao PRSD personnel from different fields
and stations in Mindanao who have done a great job by dedicating
their time, effort and resources to accomplish the task.
Mindanao PRSD will keep the fire burning to enliven its mandate: to
serve the nation with integrity.
This is PAGASA, the Weather Authority of the country, the hope of

the nation.
3
CITIZEN’S CHARTER
PAGASA, one of the attached agencies of the Department of Science and Technology
(DOST) under its Scientific and Technical Services Institutes, is mandated to “provide
protection against natural calamities and utilize scientific knowledge as an effective
instrument to insure the safety, well being and economic security of all the people, and for
the promotion of national progress.” (Section 2, Statement of Policy, Presidential Decree No.
78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977)
Protecting lives and properties through timely, accurate and reliable

weather-related information and services.
Center of excellence for weather related

information and services.
Spirituality
Patriotism
Integrity
Innovation
Commitment
Excellence
Functions (Executive Order No. 123; January 1987)
● Maintains a nationwide network pertaining to

observation and forecasting of weather and flood and
other conditions affecting national safety, welfare and
economy;
● Undertake activities relative to observation, collection,
assessment and processing of atmospheric and allied
data for the benefit of agriculture, commerce and
industry;
● Engage in studies of geophysical and
astronomical phenomena essential to the safety
and welfare of the people;
● Undertake researches on the structure,
development and motion of typhoons and
formulate measures for their moderation; and
● Maintain effective linkages with scientific
organizations here and abroad and promote
exchange of scientific information and
cooperation among personnel engaged in
atmospheric, geophysical, astronomical and
space studies.
4
INTRODUCTION
Mindanao PRSD issues annual climate report in Mindanao, among

other weather- and climate-related products and services, which
highlights the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition that
dominated the year, the extreme climatological events in terms of
rainfall and temperature, and the weather systems which brought
adverse impacts such as flooding, rain-induced landslides, and
overflowing of creeks, rivers, and deltas over vulnerable areas of
varying magnitudes in the region. This report will also further explain
the impacts of the La Niña condition in the region, its distinct
characteristics, and its comparison with the past La Niña years.
Previous reports have already been issued in the years 2019, 2020
and 2021, with copies which can be acquired at the Climatology unit
of Mindanao PRSD, Molugan, El Salvador City. The unit is also
making daily monitoring and analysis of rainfall and temperature
using data observed from different Mindanao PRSD stations. These
analyses are then compiled and utilized for the issuance of monthly
Climate Assessment and Outlook, which serve as reference in
preparation of this report.
The annual report documents the major impacts of the

hydrometeorological hazards brought by weather systems in the
region of Mindanao. Rising global temperature is associated with
widespread changes in weather patterns and extreme weather
events which are likely to become more frequent or more intense
with climate change. Heavy rainfall and typhoons in Mindanao are
the new normal. Records of climatological events and impacts are
important to further study and understand the climate of Mindanao,
and how in years it changes as influenced by the climate change.
5
This year’s annual report will provide information and updates to the
general public on the climatological events in Mindanao, particularly
for the year 2022. This may also serve as a reference to the Local
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Officers (LDRRMOs),
Local Planning and Development Coordinators (LPDCs), Local
Agriculture Officers (LAOs), other concerned Government Agencies
(GAs), and even some from the private sector in their planning,
preparedness, and operations. Understanding the climate and the
weather patterns will greatly contribute to economic growth and
community resilience.
6
RATIONALE
The annual climate report for Mindanao provides an overview of the

climate conditions in the region and a comprehensive analysis of the
previous year's climate patterns and trends. It serves as a valuable
resource for decision-makers, government and non-government
stakeholders, academia, and the general public in understanding the
state of the local climate and its impact on various sectors.
The report covers information on temperature, precipitation, and

extreme weather events gathered from various PAGASA monitoring
stations in Mindanao. These topics are crucial in raising public
awareness and in understanding the impacts of climate variability,
such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and climate change on
human health, agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure.
By communicating climate science and its relevance to everyday life,

the report promotes climate literacy and encourages actions to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase resilience to the
impacts of climate variability and change. In summary, this climate
report plays a critical role in advancing the science of climate
variability and change, supporting evidence-based decision-making,
and contributing towards a sustainable future.
7
ABSTRACT
The climate report for this year focuses on the impact of the La Niña
episode (cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation) on the
Mindanao region, resulting in a surplus of rainfall and placing 2022
in 7th place since 1961. The report analyzes observed climate
patterns and trends, with a focus on the MAM 2022 season, which
experienced the highest climate anomalies compared to previous La
Niña episodes. The report also highlights an unusually high positive
anomaly in rainfall in April 2022, the highest in the recent three
years, despite being during the dry season.
Data from PAGASA monitoring stations in Mindanao also show that

La Niña seasons normally exhibit decreased daytime and nighttime
temperatures. However, during the FMA and MAM seasons in 2022,
there was a substantial decrease in daytime temperatures compared
to previous La Niña episodes, potentially due to higher than usual
positive rainfall anomalies observed during these seasons.
Conversely, from JJA to SON in 2022, there was an increase in the
average daytime temperatures. Most seasons in 2022 also exhibited
an increase in average nighttime temperatures, with DJF and JFM
seasons showing the highest positive anomalies, which can be
attributed to the warming effect of rain-bearing clouds at night.
The report also highlights extreme weather events globally and

locally in 2022, causing significant damage to agriculture,
infrastructure, livelihoods, and loss of human lives. It emphasizes the
need for urgent actions to address the effects of climate change on
various sectors and the critical role of public awareness and
understanding of climate change impacts. The report also suggests
the importance of implementing adaptation and mitigation measures
against high-impact weather and climate events.
8
Overall, the report provides valuable information for

decision-makers, stakeholders, academia, and the public in
understanding the state of the local climate and its impact on various
sectors, promoting climate literacy, and encouraging actions towards
a sustainable future. It underscores the importance of continued
monitoring and adaptation measures to address the impacts of
climate variability and change in the region.
9
MESSAGE BY THE WEATHER SERVICES CHIEF
This annual climate report in

Mindanao 2022 is one of the local
products of Mindanao PRSD
containing climate review of the
previous year and climate outlook
of the current year. My
congratulations to our committed
and hard working personnel of
Mindanao PRSD - Climatology
Unit for coming up with this report.
The year 2022 has been difficult

and challenging, but it was a year
of new beginnings and changes.
Gradually, everything is returning
to normal, but there are adjustments. Mindanao PRSD made sure
that these adjustments are innovations to support developments for
the improvement of our local weather and climate products and
services.
I thank the Mindanao PRSD personnel including those at field

stations for all their efforts and commitment in delivering timely and
relevant services to the people. The leadership and support also of
Dr. Vicente B. Malano, PAGASA Administrator, paved a way for the
Mindanao PRSD to successfully implement its programs, projects
and activities and contribute in ensuring climate and disaster resilient
communities.
Mindanao is extremely vulnerable to the effects of changing seasons

and ENSO conditions, with many areas identified as high risk from
10
heavy rains, floods and landslides. These hazards are the main
reasons to maintain a proper climate and weather monitoring and
information dissemination in order to minimize the causes of harm
and damages to lives and properties. Mindanao is the country’s
hidden gem that is rapidly rising, and it must be protected.
There are still many programs and projects that the agency is
currently working on to further improve PAGASA services in
Mindanao. Therefore, your support and understanding in all of our
plans and efforts are key factors in our common aspiration in
ensuring public safety and economic well being of our society.
In PAGASA there is always hope.
Thank you and God protect us all.
MR. ANTHONY JOSEPH R. LUCERO, M.Sc.

Weather Services Chief
11
CLIMATE REVIEW
12
La Niña and the “Triple-Dip”
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring

phenomenon of the climate system resulting from the interaction
between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific. It has three phases: Neutral, El Niño, and La Niña.
La Niña is the cool phase of the ENSO. La Niña usually lasts for 1-3
years, which may occur every 3–4 years. The La Niña episode
results in stronger winds from the east, so more clouds are pushed
over the Philippines, bringing more rain. The effects of this
phenomenon on the Philippine climate are an early rainy season, a
short dry season, strong monsoon activity, more tropical cyclones,
and above-normal rainfall.
In 2022, La Niña prevails over the Tropical Pacific, which started in

September 2020 with a short break in June-August 2021 and is still
continuing up to early 2023. This pattern of consecutive La Niña
episodes for 3 years is called a “triple-dip”. And the same patterns of
"triple-dip" La Niña were also observed in the years 1973–1976 and
1998–2001 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Triple-dip La Niña
13
Other than its triple-dip characteristic, based on the Oceanic Niño

Index (ONI), 2020-2021-2022 La Niña intensity is categorized as
moderate (see Figure 2). ONI is the standard that the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses for
classifying El Niño and La Niña events in the eastern tropical Pacific.
The last moderate La Niña occurred in 2011–2012 and in
1995–1996.
Figure 2. ONI Threshold for La Niña Intensity: Weak (+/- 0.5-0.9°C), Moderate (+/-
1.0-1.4°C) and Strong (greater/less than 1.4°C)
ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in the sea surface temperature (SST)

and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature anomalies
(SSTAs) are the differences of the temperature (°C) in the equatorial
Pacific Ocean from average conditions over the time period of
coverage. A positive SSTA greater than or equal to +0.5°C indicates
an El Niño, while a negative SSTA lesser than or equal to -0.5°C
indicates a La Niña. Figure _ shows the condition of the Tropical
Pacific in 2022 in terms of SSTAs in quarterly mean. In the months
of January-February-March (See Figure 3a), SSTAs were below
average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, further
cooling compared to the previous months, and were above average
in the western Pacific Ocean near Indonesia. In the months of
14
April-May-June (See Figure 3b), the negative SSTAs have

strengthened in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and emerged
in western Pacific Ocean in the Philippine area. In April, La Niña
conditions strengthened and both the trade winds and upper-level
winds were stronger than average. In the months of
July-August-September (See Figure 3c), the negative SSTAs have
weakened in the eastern Pacific Ocean and still persisted in the
central Pacific Ocean. It was also observed that the positive
subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted in the western
Pacific Ocean. In the months of October-November-December (See
Figure 3d), the negative SSTAs still persisted in the central and
eastern Pacific Ocean, while the positive anomalies observed in the
western Pacific Ocean strengthened and widened.
For the year 2022, the SSTAs in the tropical Pacific indicated the
persistence of La Niña conditions with cooler than usual SSTs in the
central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In terms of SSTA, cooler SSTs at
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) ranges from
-0.5°C to -1.5°C is an indicator of weak to moderate La Niña. The
warmer than normal SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean near the
Philippines indicated favorable conditions for more convective
activity which contributed to the increase of precipitation in the
Philippines.
The atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is an important

component to have been monitored globally in studying ENSO
conditions. OLR is a longwave radiation emitted into space at the top
of the atmosphere. Lower OLR means a cooler temperature seen
from space which indicates an enhanced convection, while higher
OLR means a warmer temperature of suppressed convection. OLR
can be used as a factor for convective activities in the tropical
Pacific. Convection is a process generally associated with warm
rising air and the formation of clouds.
15
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 3. Quarterly Mean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) maps in the
Tropical Pacific for 2022: (a) JFM, (b) AMJ, (c) JAS and (d) OND
In the months of April-May-June (See Figure 4b), negative OLR

anomalies in the western Pacific Ocean weakened, however, active
convective activities were present over Visayas and Mindanao. In
the months of July-August-September (See Figure 4c), average to
positive OLR anomalies extended over western Pacific Ocean with
suppressed convective activities observed at eastern Mindanao. In
the months of October-November-December (See Figure 4d)
negative OLR anomalies re-emerged at western Pacific Ocean
which indicated enhanced convection that affected the entire
Philippines.
For the year 2022, in a La Niña condition, enhanced convective

activities were observed over the western Pacific Ocean with
stronger trade winds. During this condition, the tropical mean high
cloud cover increased which lowers the OLR. The stronger trade
winds brought more moisture to the overlying atmosphere that
increased the convection and cloudiness over the Philippine region
and strengthened other weather systems that affected the country
(such as tropical cyclones, LPA, ITCZ, monsoons, shearline, and
easterlies).
16
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 4. Quarterly Mean Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly maps in the
Tropical Pacific for 2022: (a) JFM, (b) AMJ, (c) JAS and (d) OND
17
2022 SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EVENTS
El Niño and La Niña events are natural recurring phenomena that

have been occurring for thousands of years and these are not
caused by climate change, however, are becoming intense and/or
more frequent which could be the result of it. Climate change is more
likely to affect the impacts related to these phenomena in terms of
extreme weather events. While they do impact global climate
patterns, they neither affect all regions nor are their impacts in
different regions the same.
The impacts of each La Niña event are never exactly the same, as it
depends on the intensity of the event, the season in which it occurs,
and its interactions with other climate patterns. In the tropics, La
Niña is often associated with wet conditions and heavy rainfall in
some parts of Australia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. It
usually leads to increased rainfall in the northern and western parts
of South America, rainfall deficiency in the southern part of South
America, and drier than normal conditions in the western part of
South America. In Africa, it is generally associated with increased
rainfall in southern Africa, while lack of rainfall in equatorial regions
of East Africa.
The following are some of the significant climate anomalies and

events in 2022:
WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS.

Typhoon Hinnamnor (known in
the Philippines as Super
Typhoon Henry), is one of the
strongest storms ever to hit
South Korea on September 6,
2023, setting historical flooding
18
in Seoul, South Korea. A month's worth of rain fell in the country’s

capital city in just three days, according to the Korea Meteorological
Administration. The intense precipitation over South Korea
generated both flash and riverine floods. Rainfall-induced flash
floods forced emergency personnel to rescue a number of residents
trapped by rapidly rising floodwaters.
PAKISTAN. Devastating floods

affected over 30 million people
in Pakistan after a
record-breaking rain in June to
August 2022. The country
experienced its wettest August
since the detailed national
weather records in 1961. The
provinces hardest hit by floods
recorded up to eight times
more rain than usual,
according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. Pakistan is
among the countries vulnerable to warming due to climate change
and to experience frequent and extreme weather climate events.
MADAGASCAR. Category 4
cyclones Batsirai and Emnati,
and Tropical Storm Dumako
made landfall in Madagascar,
Africa in February 2022; three
storms in a single month since
1988. The storms slammed the
island, crushed coastal towns
and villages, and caused flash
floods in the desert areas. The
cyclone were some of the
19
extreme weather events the country experienced in the recent years.

In fact, prior to this event, some parts of the country were just
recovering from the effects of an exceptionally severe drought.
NORTH AMERICAN WILDFIRES.

Fire season in North America
which usually starts in July and
lasts through September or
October is extending all the way
through December and January.
Rising temperature is drying out
forests causing extreme drought
and leading to an increase in fire
weather. Throughout 2022,
thousands of people were forced to evacuate and hundreds died
from extreme heat. Increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in
the forests which could release vast quantities of carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere is regarded as one of the world’s pressing issues
exacerbating global warming.
EUROPE. In June to August

2022, extreme heat waves
affected parts of Europe which
caused evacuations and over
20,000 heat-related deaths,
making this as one of the
deadliest meteorological events
in the year. Many national and
regional temperature records
were broken or came close to
being broken. Western Europe
experienced a longer number of days with temperatures above 35°C
and 40°C.
20
CLIMATE TYPES IN MINDANAO
The climate of the Philippines is tropical and maritime. It is

characterized by relatively high temperatures, high humidity, and
abundant rainfall. PAGASA categorizes the climate of the Philippines
using the Corona’s four climate types, which are based on the
monthly rainfall received during the year. Mindanao has three out of
four of the said climate types (see Figure 5). The eastern side of the
island is classified as Type II, with no dry season and a pronounced
maximum rainfall during the months of November to February, which
is the Northeast Monsoon “Amihan” season. The center of the island
and some portions of the Zamboanga Peninsula are classified as
Type IV, with rainfall more or less distributed evenly throughout the
year. The western portion of the island, meanwhile, is classified as
Type III, with a not very pronounced relatively dry season from
November to April and wet for the rest of the year.
Figure 5. Mindanao Climate Types based on Modified Corona’s Classification
21
As mentioned early on, Mindanao’s rainfall distribution depends on

ENSO activity and other climate variability, which leads to possible
climate anomalies in the said region, especially in the year 2022,
which is the focus of this annual report. Also, the behavior of a
specific climate type can differ for a certain ENSO phase. So, to
further investigate and understand the climatological events that
happened in Mindanao as of 2022, climate analyses were done.
22
CLIMATE ANALYSIS
23
RAINFALL MONITORING
The triple-dip ENSO cold episode (La Niña) that started during
Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) 2020 season until Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) 2021
season, transitioned to ENSO Neutral for a time, and re-emerged
back during Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) 2021 season up to Dec-Jan-Feb
(DJF) 2023 have provided abundance of rainfall in many areas of
Mindanao. As shown in Figure 6, there was both a surplus of rainfall
during the Mar-Apr-May (MAM) and Oct-Nov-Dec (OND) seasons in
CY 2021 and CY 2022. The most notable detail is the positive
rainfall anomaly in April 2022, which was the highest among the
recent three (3) years even though it was during the dry season, and
was almost thrice its climatological normal for the month.
Subsequent discussion will reveal that most of the monitoring
stations in the region contributed to this anomalous surplus of
rainfall.
Figure 6. Average of the total monthly rainfall for selected weather stations in Mindanao.
24
The Surigao and Hinatuan stations belong to Climate Type II. As

evidenced by Figure 7, both stations experienced unusual peaks of
rainfall during the (MAM) 2022 season. In March 2022, Surigao
observed the highest total monthly rainfall of 626.4mm, which was
almost twice its climatological normal value of 354.8mm. This station
also recorded its greatest 24-hour rainfall of 191.3 mm on March 6,
2022, due to a Low Pressure Area (LPA). In April 2022, Hinatuan
recorded the highest total monthly rainfall of 608.1mm, which was
almost twice its climatological normal value of 329.7mm. In May
2022, Hinatuan again recorded its highest total monthly rainfall
amount of 829.6mm, which was almost three times its climatological
normal value of 291.0mm and the second highest throughout the
year 2022. This amount was also a record-high since it surpassed
the previous monthly extreme value of 648.1mm recorded in CY
2010. During this time of the year, Hinatuan also observed the
greatest 24-hour rainfall of 171.2mm on May 1, 2022, due to a LPA
embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Additionally, Hinatuan recorded the highest number of wet days
among all the synoptic stations in the region.
Furthermore, the highest daily and monthly rainfall for CY 2022 was
observed in Hinatuan. Specifically, the greatest 24-hour rainfall
occurred on December 27, 2022, with an amount of 234.7mm. This
event was attributed to the prevailing weather systems in the region,
namely the Shear Line and LPA.
The Laguindingan, Zamboanga, and Cotabato stations belong to

Climate Type III. The most notable feature in Figure 8 is the
enhanced peak of rainfall observed at all three stations during the
supposedly dry month of April. Cotabato station received a total
monthly rainfall of 525.1mm, which surpassed its previous monthly
extreme value of 458.9mm in April 1989.
25
Figure 7. Observed Rainfall (in millimeters) and Climatological Normal (CY 1991-2020) over
Climate Type II stations in Mindanao (CY 2022).
Zamboanga also achieved a record-high monthly rainfall of

289.4mm, which exceeded its observed rainfall of 250.0mm in April
1956. It is surprising to note that only 3 out of 32 monitored stations
at that time showed a data record of a 5 consecutive day period with
no rain, strongly indicating an extremely wet condition in the region
during the month of April 2022 when the driest condition is supposed
to occur. In addition, the AWS in Kabacan (Cotabato Province)
recorded the highest total monthly rainfall amount of 761.5mm
during this month. It was also during this time that various
municipalities in BARMM and SOCCSKSARGEN were heavily
flooded.
Figure 9 shows that two stations belonging to Climate Type IV have

records of exceedance. Butuan station received a total monthly
rainfall of 365.9 mm, which surpassed its previous monthly extreme
value of 277.4 mm recorded in April 1999. Similarly, Dipolog
achieved a record-high monthly rainfall of 566.1 mm, exceeding its
extreme monthly rainfall of 423.2 mm recorded in April 2000.
Furthermore, the graphs indicate that there were additional peaks of
rainfall during times when it does not normally occur.
26
Climate Type III stations in Mindanao (CY 2022).
Climate Type IV stations in Mindanao (CY 2022).
27
Considering the climatological normal from 1991-2020, the total

annual rainfall in Mindanao ranges from 958.1 to 4,761.6 millimeters
(mm), as measured by the General Santos and Hinatuan stations,
respectively. In the year 2022, the southernmost station in General
Santos received the smallest annual rainfall amount of 819.5mm,
while the easternmost station in Hinatuan, fronting the Pacific
Ocean, received the greatest annual rainfall of 6,107.7mm. The
mean annual rainfall for all the synoptic stations in the region for CY
2022 is 2,886.6mm. Comparative analysis with the previous year's
average annual rainfall of 2,975.4mm indicates no significant
difference. However, compared to the climatological average annual
rainfall of 2,407.4mm, it is evident that Mindanao received a surplus
of rainfall in the last two years.
In addition to the aforementioned synoptic stations, PAGASA also

maintains a significant number of Automated Weather Stations
(AWSs) and Automated Rain Gauges (ARGs) distributed throughout
Mindanao, all of which undergo regular preventive maintenance. The
density and accuracy of these data sources contribute to the quality
of rainfall maps generated through the use of ArcGIS software. The
interpolation method employed is Kriging, which is known for
producing highly accurate maps when applied to data with a spatially
correlated structure. The resulting maps can provide relevant
information on rainfall in terms of the percentage of normal values
for individual station points, municipalities, cities, provinces, and
regions. These values, which can be easily visualized using the
derived interpolated map, represent the percentage of actual or
forecasted rainfall data compared to the climatological normals.
The analysis, conducted using an interpolated map, indicates that

for the months of March, April, May, July, August, and October 2022,
most provinces received above-normal rainfall (refer to Figures 10
and 11, and Table 1). The most significant feature of this analysis is
28
that in April 2022, the percentages of normal rainfall were the

highest among all provinces, ranging from 188.9% to 440.4%
compared to the percentages of normal rainfall for all other months
(refer to Table 1).
29
Figure 10. Rainfall Assessment Map of Mindanao (January - April 2022).
30
31
Figure 11. Rainfall Assessment Map of Mindanao (July - December 2022).
32
Table 1. Observed Rainfall (per province) in Percent of Normal (CY 2022).
33
Based on the observed monthly rainfall of the PAGASA stations in

Mindanao, it is evident that most stations, including Cotabato,
Dipolog, and Zamboanga stations (see Table 2), have received
above-normal rainfall during the months of March, April, May,
October, and December. Unfortunately, these areas experienced
widespread floods last year, which caused significant damage to
agriculture, infrastructure, and resulted in loss of lives. It is
noteworthy that an ENSO cold episode (La Niña) started from the
third quarter of CY 2020 until the first quarter of CY 2021,
transitioned to ENSO neutral towards the end of the second quarter
of CY 2021, and then shifted back to La Niña in the last quarter of
the same year, which has continued up to now.
Table 2. Observed Rainfall (per PAGASA synoptic station) in Percent of Normal (CY 2022).
La Niña in 2022 brought surplus rainfall to Mindanao, which placed

2022 in 7th place in the mean annual rainfall anomaly (see Figure
12). Additionally, the rainfall anomalies in 2022 were compared to
previous La Niña episodes, as shown in Figure 13, suggesting that
Mindanao experienced higher climate anomalies in the MAM season
compared to previous La Niña episodes. Investigating further into
this unusual anomaly in the MAM season, the relationship between
the ONI and Mindanao rainfall anomalies was identified (see Figure
34
14). Clearly, the effect of ONI on rainfall anomalies in Mindanao is

greatest during the DJF-MAM seasons (more than 60%). This
means that a drastic change in ONI during these seasons can
significantly change the amount of rainfall anomalies. On the other
hand, during the MJJ-SON seasons, there is less likely to be a
correlation between the two parameters. For 2022, the ONI values
during the FMA-AMJ seasons are the highest, as shown in Table 3.
This explains the additional peaks in April since the ONI values
reached moderate intensity for La Niña.
Figure 12. Mean Annual Rainfall Anomaly in Mindanao
Figure 13. La Niña Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies Comparison
35
Figure 14. ONI-Rainfall Anomaly of Mindanao Relationship
Table 3. ONI values for 2020-2022
36
RAINFALL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
La Niña conditions are often associated with above-normal rainfall,

which can result in potential adverse impacts such as flooding,
rain-induced landslides, and overflowing of creeks, rivers, and deltas
over vulnerable areas of varying magnitudes. The subsequent
discussion will cover the relevant impacts of the most notable
weather systems for CY 2022 in the region.
Tropical Storm AGATON (“MEGI”)
The first weather system that brought heavy rains to Mindanao was
AGATON. Appropriate heavy rainfall warnings and flood advisories
were issued to the concerned areas. AGATON was first tracked as a
disturbance on March 30, 2022, and developed into a tropical
depression as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
on April 8, 2022. Its peak intensity within the PAR was 75 km/hr,
which is classified as a Tropical Storm. Four days later, it weakened
into a remnant low as it exited the PAR.
From April 8 to 12, 2022, the highest accumulated rainfall among all
weather stations in Mindanao was observed in Cotabato City
(BARMM), with an amount of 212.7mm. It was followed by stations
in Laguindingan Airport (Northern Mindanao) and Zamboanga City
(Zamboanga Peninsula), with amounts of 125.2mm and 120.9mm,
respectively. The spatial distribution of actual rainfall received by the
region for the aforementioned period is presented in Figure 15
below.
37
Figure 15. Spatial interpolation of accumulated rainfall (mm) for the period of 08 to 12 April 2022
from reports of PAGASA synoptic and agromet stations.1
The heavy rains resulted in flooding, landslides, casualties,

impassable roads and bridges, power and water interruptions,
stranded passengers and vessels, class suspensions, and damage
to agriculture and infrastructure. The impacts brought by AGATON to
the different regions in Mindanao are summarized in subsequent
tables (Tables 4a to 4d), as reported by the National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC)2.
Table 4a. Reported incidents
HIGH-RISE
AFFECTED FLOODED RAIN-INDUCED FLASH OVERFLOWED
DROWNING WATER
REGIONS AREAS LANDSLIDE FLOOD RIVER/CREEK
LEVEL
Northern
3 3 0 0 0 0
Mindanao
Davao Region 1 2 4 6 1 3
SOCCSKSARGEN 44 1 0 0 0 0
Caraga 36 2 0 0 0 0
BARMM 209 0 0 0 0 0
1
Tropical Cyclone Preliminary Summary of TS Agaton (MEGI) by Marine Meteorological Services Section,
Weather Division.
2
Situational Report for Tropical Storm Agaton (2022) as of 29 April 2022, 8:00 AM.
38
Table 4b. Confirmed casualties

AFFECTED REGIONS DEAD INJURED MISSING
Northern Mindanao 0 2 0
Davao Region 0 0 1
SOCCSKSARGEN 0 4 0
Table 4c. Damage to infrastructure

NO. OF DAMAGED ESTIMATED COST OF DAMAGE
AFFECTED REGIONS
INFRASTRUCTURE (PHP)
Northern Mindanao 6 6,950,000.00
BARMM 6 -
Table 4d. Damage to agriculture

AFFECTED NO. OF COST OF NO. OF AFFECTED
AFFECTED COST OF
CROP AREA AFFECTED DAMAGE TO AGRICULTURAL
REGIONS DAMAGE (PHP)
(HA) LIVESTOCK FISHERIES INFRASTRUCTURE
Northern
136.5 1 0 0 8,000.00
Mindanao
SOCCSKSARGEN 148.5 0 0 0
BARMM 458.0 0 0 0 874,000.00
Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (“NALGAE”)
PAENG, another notable weather disturbance, brought heavy rains

to Mindanao. From October 26 to 31, 2022, Cotabato City (BARMM)
recorded the highest accumulated rainfall of 226.9mm among all
PAGASA observing stations in Mindanao. Camiguin (Northern
Mindanao) and Zamboanga City (Zamboanga Peninsula) followed
with 180.4mm and 171.9mm, respectively. As a result, the heavy
rains caused flooding, landslides, storm surges, strong winds,
displaced individuals, casualties, impassable roads and bridges,
power and water outages, class suspensions, and damages to
agriculture and infrastructure. Tables 5a to 5d briefly show the
impacts brought by PAENG to the different regions in Mindanao, as
reported by the NDRRMC3. The most heavily affected region by
PAENG was BARMM, which is not typically affected by heavy rains
brought by tropical cyclones.
3
Situational Report for Severe Tropical Storm Paeng (2022) as of 19 November 2022, 8:00 AM.
39
Figure 16. Spatial interpolation of accumulated rainfall (mm) for the period of 26 to 31 October 2022
from reports of PAGASA synoptic and agromet stations.4

STRONG
AFFECTED FLOODED RAIN-INDUCED STORM GROUND
WINDS / BIG DROWNING
REGIONS AREAS LANDSLIDE SURGE CRACK
WAVES
Zamboanga Peninsula 87 4 0 1 0 0
SOCCSKSARGEN 14 0 0 0 4 3
Caraga 21 1 0 0 0 0
BARMM 66 5 1 0 0 0

Zamboanga Peninsula 0 0 0
SOCCSKSARGEN 3 2 0
BARMM 68 169 13

AFFECTED REGIONS
Davao Region 1 2,500,000.00
SOCCSKSARGEN 1 0.00
BARMM 39 511,200,000.00
4
Tropical Cyclone Preliminary Summary of TY Paeng (NALGAE) by Marine Meteorological Services Section,
Weather Division.
40

NO. OF NO. OF DAMAGED
AFFECTED PRODUCTION PRODUCTION LOSS
AFFECTED FARMERS / INFRASTRUCTURE,
CROP AREA LOSS IN / COST OF DAMAGE
REGIONS FISHERFOLKS MACHINERIES,
(HA) VOLUME (MT) (PHP)
AFFECTED EQUIPMENT
Zamboanga
2 196 0 0 2,360,000.00
Peninsula
Northern
8 0 196 0 1,354,500.00
Mindanao
Davao Region 0 0 0 0 10,000.00
BARMM 15,273 977 0 0 639,521,156.56
Shear Line
The Shear Line brought hydrometeorological hazards such as heavy

rains, floods/flash floods, and landslides, resulting in displaced
families, casualties (dead and injured), water and power
interruptions, communication signal losses, canceled flights/trips,
road blockages, work/class suspensions, damaged houses, and
damages to infrastructure, agriculture, schools, and tourism in
Mindanao, especially in the provinces of Misamis Occidental and
Misamis Oriental. Between December 23 to 27, 2022, the highest
accumulated rainfall among all PAGASA monitoring stations in
Mindanao was recorded in Surigao City (Caraga) with 413.9mm,
followed by stations in Hinatuan (Caraga) with 324.6mm, and
Dipolog City (Zamboanga Peninsula) with 217.0mm. Tables 6a to 6d
present a succinct report of the impacts brought by the Shear Line,
according to the NDRRMC 5.
5
Effects of Shear Line (2022) as of 11 January 2023, 08:00 AM.
41
Figure 17. Spatial interpolation of accumulated rainfall (mm) for the period of 23 to 27
December 2022 from reports of PAGASA synoptic and agromet stations.

AFFECTED REGIONS FLOODED AREAS RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Zamboanga Peninsula 56 5
Northern Mindanao 6 1
Davao Region 15 7
BARMM 38 0

Zamboanga Peninsula 3 2 1
Northern Mindanao 2 0 0
Davao Region 4 1 0
Caraga 3 0 0

AFFECTED REGIONS
Zamboanga Peninsula 0 7,200,000.00
Davao Region 0 4,000,000.00
Caraga 5 -
42

NO. OF NO. OF DAMAGED
AFFECTED PRODUCTION PRODUCTION LOSS
AFFECTED FARMERS / INFRASTRUCTURE,
CROP AREA LOSS IN / COST OF DAMAGE
REGIONS FISHERFOLKS MACHINERIES,
(HA) VOLUME (MT) (PHP)
AFFECTED EQUIPMENT
Zamboanga
1 0 0 0 10,297,850.00
Peninsula
Northern
7,187.5 3,769.009 5 36,699.6575 172,452,408.62
Mindanao
Caraga 5,224 5,900.525 0 0 100,046,886.3333
43
TEMPERATURE MONITORING
In Mindanao, surface temperatures have generally been near or

above average for most months of 2022, with the exception of
General Santos. General Santos recorded below-average
temperatures in February, March, November, and December 2022.
Similarly, Surigao and Hinatuan experienced cooler temperatures in
August 2022. On the other hand, many stations observed warmer
temperatures during January and September 2022, while April and
May 2022 experienced near to colder temperatures.
To assess temperature deviations, we conducted a comparative

analysis of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures recorded at
PAGASA synoptic stations during CY 2022 and referenced them
against the 1991-2020 climatological baseline. These deviations
were then classified by season and juxtaposed against temperature
anomalies in all La Niña seasons. As illustrated in Figure 19, the
average diurnal temperatures in all La Niña seasons exhibited
below-normal temperatures. However, during JJA, JAS, ASO, and
SON seasons in 2022, the mean maximum temperatures displayed
substantial positive anomalies. Conversely, the FMA and MAM
seasons revealed more negative temperature anomalies than
preceding La Niña episodes, likely due to the increased positive
rainfall anomalies observed during these seasons. This high rainfall
leads to greater cloud formation, which reflects the incoming solar
radiation back to space, and shadows the ground underneath,
causing a cooling effect during the day. This, in turn, reduces the
surface temperature, particularly in areas with high solar radiation.
Furthermore, precipitation cools the surface by evaporation.
44
45
46
Figure 18. Mean Temperature Anomaly for CY 2022 from reports of PAGASA synoptic
stations.6
6
Maps of Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly for CY 2022, relative to 1991-2020 climatological normal, by
PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS.
47
Figure 19. Comparison of La Niña Seasonal Maximum Temperature Anomaly (dark red)
versus 2022 Seasonal Maximum Temperature Anomaly (light red) in Mindanao.
Additionally, according to Figure 20, the average nocturnal

temperatures in all seasons were below-normal during La Niña.
Nevertheless, during most seasons in 2022, substantial positive
anomalies were evident in the mean minimum temperatures, with
the DJF and JFM seasons registering the highest anomalies. This
phenomenon can be attributed to the warming effect of rain-bearing
clouds at night. These clouds trap the heat emitted by the surface,
creating a barrier that prevents the heat from escaping into space.
As a result, the temperature near the surface remains higher, even in
areas with cooler ambient air. This warming effect can also
encourage the formation of fog, which further entrenches the heat
and sustains higher temperatures. However, in certain instances,
this can lead to unpleasant and humid conditions, especially in
regions with elevated humidity.
48
Figure 20. Comparison of La Niña Seasonal Minimum Temperature Anomaly (dark blue)
versus 2022 Seasonal Minimum Temperature Anomaly (light blue) in Mindanao.
Furthermore, Figure 21 illustrates negative anomalies in the mean

surface air temperatures of preceding La Niña years spanning from
1991 to 2020. Nonetheless, in 2022, the majority of seasons
evidenced above-average deviations from the average seasonal
temperature of La Niña, except for the FMA, MAM, and AMJ
seasons. This outcome may be attributed to considerable positive
anomalies in the mean minimum temperatures in most seasons of
2022.
49
Figure 21. Comparison of La Niña Seasonal Mean Temperature Anomaly (dark green)
versus 2022 Seasonal Mean Temperature Anomaly (light green) in Mindanao.
50
ANOMALY TIME SERIES OF ALL MINDANAO

SYNOPTIC STATIONS
The average global surface temperature (i.e., land and ocean) for
CY 2022 ranked as the sixth highest temperature recorded since CY
1850.7 Notably, the eight most recent years, including CY 2022, are
among the top ten years with the highest mean temperature
anomalies both globally and locally (refer to Table 7). As shown in
Figure 22, surface temperature has been consistently increasing,
indicating a rising trend that is logically linked to global warming.
Table 7. Global (CY 1850 - CY 2022) and Local (CY 1961 - CY 2022) Surface Temperature
Anomalies.
GLOBAL MINDANAO
ANOM ANOM
RANK YEAR RANK
YEAR ALY ALY
2016 1.03 ℃ 1 2016 0.64 ℃ 1
2020 1.01 ℃ 2 2018
0.51 ℃ 2
2019 0.98 ℃ 3 2019
2017 0.95 ℃ 4 2020 0.50 ℃ 3
2015 0.92 ℃ 5 2017
0.29 ℃ 4
2022 0.91 ℃ 6 1987
2018 2021 0.24 ℃ 5
0.86 ℃ 7
2021 2015 0.23 ℃ 6
2014 0.77 ℃ 8 1998 0.20 ℃ 7
2010 0.73 ℃ 9 2022 0.18 ℃ 8
2005 0.70 ℃ 10 1988 0.17 ℃ 9
7
NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, published
February 2023, retrieved on February 17, 2023 from
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series
51
Figure 22. Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies (CY 1850 - CY 2022).
Likewise, the average temperature in Mindanao has exhibited an

upward trend over the past six decades (refer to Figure 23).
Specifically, CY 2022 is ranked as the eighth warmest mean annual
temperature recorded, as shown in Table x.1 and Figure 24.
Compared to the normal, there has been a 0.18 ℃ increase in
temperature.
As presented in Figure 25, maximum temperatures in Mindanao

have generally increased over the past 60 years, resulting in
warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures. However, CY 2022 is an
exception as it ranks as the twentieth warmest year on record,
primarily due to the occurrence of several rain-bearing weather
systems that led to lower daytime temperatures (refer to Figure 26).
Specifically, Mindanao's average daytime temperature for CY 2022
was 0.04°C lower than the climatological normal.
52
Figure 23. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Temperature in Mindanao presented in

chronological years.
Figure 24. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Temperature in Mindanao presented

based on magnitude.
53
Figure 25. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Maximum Temperature in Mindanao (in
chronological years).
Figure 26. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Maximum Temperature in Mindanao

(based on magnitude).
As illustrated in Figure 27, minimum temperatures in Mindanao have

exhibited an overall upward trend, resulting in warmer-than-normal
54
nighttime temperatures. Specifically, CY 2022 is the fourth warmest

year in terms of mean annual minimum temperature based on the
1961-2022 temperature data, as shown in Figure 28. For CY 2022,
there was a 0.25 °C increase in minimum temperature, and this
increase contributed to the general rise in average surface
temperatures for that year.
Figure 27. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Minimum Temperature in Mindanao (in
chronological years).
55
Figure 28. Standardized Anomalies of Mean Annual Minimum Temperature in Mindanao

(based on magnitude).
56
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES
An extreme value analysis was conducted for daily and monthly

rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures at all synoptic stations
in Mindanao for CY 2022. Results indicated that all of the
aforementioned parameters had records of exceedance, except for
the minimum temperature. Notably, compared to the climatological
extremes in CY 2020 and CY 2021, this year has been remarkable
as six stations have set record-high monthly rainfall levels based on
CY 1951-2022 data. Among these stations, four observed the
record-highs in April, which is typically considered the dry season.
Moreover, the subsequent table reveals that Hinatuan station

surpassed both its climatological extremes more than a decade ago
in terms of daily and monthly rainfall. In May, the station had a
surplus of 538.6 mm (285.1% above normal rainfall) compared to the
climatological normal. This anomaly is noteworthy since Hinatuan's
maximum rainfall typically occurs during the Amihan season, rather
than the Habagat season or its transition period. The exceedance
occurred on May 1, 2022, when the station experienced heavy
rainfall due to the presence of a Low Pressure Area (LPA)
embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
57
Table 8. Record-breaking climatological extremes as of CY 2022 per PAGASA station.
AS OF CY 2021 AS OF CY 2022
SYNOPTIC
PARAMETER EXTREM EXTREM
STATION DATE DATE
E VALUE E VALUE
Maximum
Malaybalay 34.0 23-Jan-1988 34.0 8-Jan-2022
Temperature, °C
Maximum
Zamboanga 35.8 29-Jan-2016 36.0 3-Jan-2022
Temperature, °C
Greatest 24-hr
Laguindingan 84.2 19-Mar-1982 87.6 6-Mar-2022
RR, mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Butuan 277.4 Apr-1999 365.9 Apr-2022
mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Cotabato 458.9 Apr-1989 525.1 Apr-2022
mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Dipolog 423.2 Apr-2000 566.1 Apr-2022
mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Zamboanga 250.0 Apr-1956 289.4 Apr-2022
mm
Greatest 24-hr
Hinatuan 128.2 18-May-2010 171.2 1-May-2022
RR, mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Hinatuan 648.1 May-2010 829.6 May-2022
mm
Monthly Rainfall,
Butuan 230.7 May-2017 232.7 May-2022
mm
Greatest 24-hr
Hinatuan 102.2 9-Aug-2011 172.6 8-Aug-2022
RR, mm
Maximum
Butuan 36.4 20-Sep-1991 36.5 17-Sep-2022
Temperature, °C
Maximum
Zamboanga 35.8 2-Sep-2004 36.1 2-Sep-2022
Temperature, °C
Greatest 24-hr
Butuan 107.4 24-Oct-2003 133.8 24-Oct-2022
RR, mm
58
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
59
EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION STATUS
PAGASA declares that the La Niña has ended, and majority of the
climate models indicate ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño)
as the favored condition from March through June of the current
year, with a likelihood of transitioning to El Niño thereafter. Despite
the conclusion of La Niña, its delayed effect may still impact the
likelihood of above-normal rainfall conditions in the following months,
potentially leading to adverse impacts in highly vulnerable
communities, such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and
rain-induced landslides. On the other hand, El Niño increases the
probability of below-normal rainfall conditions, which can have
negative consequences, such as dry spells and droughts, in certain
areas of Mindanao.8
Based on the evaluation of climate experts and analysis from

numerous climate models, it is probable that a transition to El Niño
conditions will manifest during the latter half of the calendar year
2023. However, due to inherent uncertainties associated with climate
prediction, the precise timing and severity of this event remain
subject to further refinement and ongoing monitoring. Figure 29
presents a graphical representation of the probability of future El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for upcoming seasons,
based on a combination of statistical models, dynamical models, and
expert analysis. The forecast is regularly updated on a monthly basis
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The x-axis represents time, while the y-axis represents the likelihood
of ENSO conditions occurring, expressed as a percentage.9
8
ENSO Advisory: La Niña Advisory No. 18A (Final) by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS, issued on 10 March 2023.
9
Columbia Climate School - International Research Institute for Climate and Society, ENSO Forecast: CPC
ENSO Update, published 09 March 2023, retrieved on 21 March 2023 from
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update
60
Figure 29. Graphical representation of Official ENSO Probability

Forecast (updated 20 March 2023).10
Table 9 presents the probabilities of El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral

conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, as forecasted by the official
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) prediction centers. The
probabilities are expressed as percentages for overlapping 3-month
periods throughout the year, providing a comprehensive overview of
the expected ENSO conditions. The data presented in this table can
assist decision-making in fields such as climate-sensitive agriculture,
water resource management, and disaster mitigation.
Table 9 Tabulated representation of Official ENSO Probability Forecast (updated 09 March 2023).
SEASON LA NIÑA NEUTRAL EL NIÑO

FMA 2023 4 96 0
MAM 2023 2 96 2
AMJ 2023 2 83 15
MJJ 2023 2 62 36
JJA 2023 3 49 48
JAS 2023 4 40 56
ASO 2023 4 35 61
SON 2023 5 33 62
OND 2023 6 31 63
10
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP, published
on 20 March 2023, retrieved on 21 March 2023 from
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
61
RAINFALL FORECAST:
APRIL 2023 - SEPTEMBER 2023
According to the monthly deterministic forecasts generated by the

PAGASA computer models, it is expected that the majority of
provinces located in Mindanao will receive near normal rainfall
during the forecast period. However, certain areas situated in the
regions of Caraga and Zamboanga Peninsula, as well as the island
province of Basilan, are anticipated to experience below normal
rainfall conditions for the month of August 2023.11
In comparison to selected international climate forecasts,12 13 the

majority of computer models also predict near normal rainfall
conditions in most regions throughout the forecast period. However,
a few models indicate the possibility of above normal rainfall in April
2023, and below normal rainfall from June to September 2023. Most
of these climate forecasts further suggest that near normal rainfall
conditions are highly probable during all seasons in the forecast
period. Nevertheless, certain forecasts indicate the possibility of
above normal rainfall during the AMJ season, and below normal
rainfall during the JAS season.
On the other hand, the official rainfall probabilistic forecasts indicate

a higher likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions in most
stations during the months of April, May, June, and September, with
a chance ranging from approximately 27-52%, as shown in Table 4.
It should be noted, however, that only a few stations have a
11
Climate Outlook (Apr2023-Sep2023) during the 158th National Climate Forum by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS
on 22 March 2023.
12
National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2 for Apr 2023 to Dec 2023, updated 22 March
2023.
13
APEC Climate Center (APCC) Deterministic Multi-model Ensemble (MME) Forecasts, issued on 15 March
2023.
62
probability exceeding 50% for above normal rainfall. In July 2023,

the percentage of normal conditions may vary among the stations. In
August 2023, it is expected that most stations will experience below
normal rainfall conditions, with a chance of approximately 38-50%.14
In comparison, the majority of international climate models and

multi-model ensembles (MMEs) 15 16 17 suggest a 40-50% chance of
above normal rainfall conditions in Mindanao during the period of
April to May 2023. Near normal rainfall conditions are expected for
the months of June and August 2023, while either below or near
normal conditions are likely for July 2023. Additionally, a 40-50%
chance of below normal rainfall is predicted for September 2023.
Moreover, these models also predict a 40-60% probability of above
normal rainfall during the AMJ 2023 season. Near normal rainfall
conditions are expected during the MJJ and JJA 2023 seasons,
while a 40-60% probability of below normal rainfall is predicted for
the remaining forecast period.
14
on 22 March 2023.
15
APEC Climate Center (APCC) Probabilistic Multi-model Ensemble (MME) Forecasts, issued on 15 March
2023.
16
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast (LRF) Multi-Model
Ensemble (MME) for April 2023 to June 2023, issued March 2023.
17
International Research Institute for Climate and Society. IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for
Precipitation for AMJ 2023, MJJ 2023, JJA 2023, and JAS 2023, issued March 2023.
63
TEMPERATURE FORECAST:
APRIL 2023 - SEPTEMBER 2023
Figure 30 displays the predicted mean temperature anomalies for
the six-month period starting in April 2023, based on statistical
models and climate data collected at PAGASA weather stations. The
maps provide a visual representation of temperature patterns in a
given region, with the predictions allowing for more informed
decision-making for various sectors. Analysis of the mean
temperature anomaly forecasts for Mindanao indicates that the
region is expected to experience surface temperatures ranging from
near-average to warmer than average during the forecast period.
Additionally, the forecasts indicate that weather stations in the
Caraga region and General Santos are likely to experience
near-average surface air temperatures throughout the entire
six-month period.
64
Figure 30. Mean Temperature Anomaly Forecasts for April 2023 to September 2023.18
18
on 22 March 2023.
65
MPRSD
PRODUCTS AND
SERVICES
66
Products and Services

A. Weather
a) Localized Weather Forecast
b) Thunderstorm Advisory
c) Rainfall Advisory
d) Heavy Rainfall Warning
e) Tropical Cyclone
f) Gale Warning
B. Climate
a) Daily Climate Monitoring
b) Local Climate Advisory (El Niño/La Niña)
c) Local Climate Assessment and Outlook (ENSO Neutral)
d) Annual Climate Report
C. Flood
a) General Flood Advisory
b) Basin Flood Advisory
c) Basin Flood Bulletin
D. Astronomy
a) Mobile Planetarium
67
Other modes of Dissemination
68
MESSAGE FROM MPRSD
Foremost, we would like to express our sincere appreciation to Dr.

Vicente B. Malano (PAGASA Administrator), to Dr. Bonifacio G.
Pajuelas (OIC, Deputy Administrator for Operations and
Services and to all the Deputy Administrators for their continuous
support to MPRSD, most especially concerning the initiatives of the
division.
Our sincere acknowledgement also goes to the Climatology and

Agrometeorology Division (CAD) for the provision of usable and
quality-controlled meteorological, climatological and allied data and
information. We would also like to thank our colleagues from the
different field stations in Mindanao for dutifully observing and
recording all the needed weather parameters in their areas of
jurisdiction.
Last but not the least, we would also like to show our heartfelt
gratitude to all our local partners and stakeholders in Mindanao
for their continued trust in collaborating with us as we work
hand-in-hand in providing weather-related information and services
to Mindanao.
69
REFERENCES
1. Climate Prediction Center - ONI (noaa.gov)

2. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) history (bom.gov.au)
3. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
(noaa.gov)
4. PAGASA (dost.gov.ph)
70

2022 - Annual Climate Report in Mindanao

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Climate in Mindanao 2022

There is still HOPE.

After more than two years of gloomy alternating lockdowns,

The Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Local weather forecasts, advisories and warnings; local climate

that could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall,

Despite the tussle with the limited resources and shortage of

This is PAGASA, the Weather Authority of the country, the hope of

Protecting lives and properties through timely, accurate and reliable

Center of excellence for weather related

Functions (Executive Order No. 123; January 1987)

● Maintains a nationwide network pertaining to

Mindanao PRSD issues annual climate report in Mindanao, among

The annual report documents the major impacts of the

The annual climate report for Mindanao provides an overview of the

The report covers information on temperature, precipitation, and

By communicating climate science and its relevance to everyday life,

Data from PAGASA monitoring stations in Mindanao also show that

The report also highlights extreme weather events globally and

Overall, the report provides valuable information for

MESSAGE BY THE WEATHER SERVICES CHIEF

This annual climate report in

The year 2022 has been difficult

I thank the Mindanao PRSD personnel including those at field

Mindanao is extremely vulnerable to the effects of changing seasons

In PAGASA there is always hope.

Thank you and God protect us all.

MR. ANTHONY JOSEPH R. LUCERO, M.Sc.

La Niña and the “Triple-Dip”

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring

In 2022, La Niña prevails over the Tropical Pacific, which started in

Figure 1. Triple-dip La Niña

Other than its triple-dip characteristic, based on the Oceanic Niño

ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in the sea surface temperature (SST)

April-May-June (See Figure 3b), the negative SSTAs have

The atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is an important

In the months of April-May-June (See Figure 4b), negative OLR

For the year 2022, in a La Niña condition, enhanced convective

2022 SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EVENTS

El Niño and La Niña events are natural recurring phenomena that

The following are some of the significant climate anomalies and

WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS.

in Seoul, South Korea. A month's worth of rain fell in the country’s

PAKISTAN. Devastating floods

extreme weather events the country experienced in the recent years.

NORTH AMERICAN WILDFIRES.

EUROPE. In June to August

CLIMATE TYPES IN MINDANAO

The climate of the Philippines is tropical and maritime. It is

Figure 5. Mindanao Climate Types based on Modified Corona’s Classification

As mentioned early on, Mindanao’s rainfall distribution depends on

The Surigao and Hinatuan stations belong to Climate Type II. As

The Laguindingan, Zamboanga, and Cotabato stations belong to

Zamboanga also achieved a record-high monthly rainfall of

Figure 9 shows that two stations belonging to Climate Type IV have

Considering the climatological normal from 1991-2020, the total

In addition to the aforementioned synoptic stations, PAGASA also

The analysis, conducted using an interpolated map, indicates that

that in April 2022, the percentages of normal rainfall were the

Figure 10. Rainfall Assessment Map of Mindanao (January - April 2022).

Figure 11. Rainfall Assessment Map of Mindanao (July - December 2022).

Table 1. Observed Rainfall (per province) in Percent of Normal (CY 2022).