Chapter 2

State Differences and Relationships

ARE SOME PATERNS EVIDENCE
OF CAUSE AND EFFECT?

ARE THERE EXPLANATIONS FOR

PATTERNS IN TEXAS?
 Figure 2.1
Per Capita Income 2014
 Figure 2.2
Percentage of Population With High School Completion or Higher 2014
 Figure 2.3
Percentage of Population With Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 2014
 SCATTERPLOT ANALYSIS

• MORE INFORMATION THAN SIMPLE

MAPS

• TEXAS COMPARED TO OTHER STATES

 Correlations

• A technique for expressing relationships in

quantitative terms

• The degrees of inherent association which exists

between any two variables occurring
simultaneously in the same universe (Abraham N,
Franzblau)
 EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS IN
SCATTERPLOTS AND CORRELATIONS

• MINIMUM STRENGTH THRESHOLD

• DIRECTION OF RELATIONSHIP

• POSSIBLE INTERPRETATIONS

• TEXAS
 Figure 2.4
Per Capita Income and Percent High School Completion 2014
 Figure 2.5
Per Capita Income and Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 2014
 Table 2.1
Per Capita Income and Educational Attainment Correlations
Over Time

Per Capita Income and Per Capita Income and

Year High School Completion Baccalaureate Degree

1950 .70 .52

1960 .66 .48
1970 .61 .65
1980 .63 .64
1990 .44 .74
2000 .31 .74
2010 .37 .79
2014 .43 .76
 Figure 2.7
Per Capita Total State and Local Government Revenue and Per Capita
Income 2014
 Figure 2.8
Per Capita State and Local Government Revenue Per Capita and
Percent of Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 2014
 Figure 2.9
State and Local Government Expenditure Per Capita and Revenue Per
Capita 2014

Regression line

Equal expenditure and revenue line

 Figure 2.10
Incarceration Rate and Violent Crime Rate 2014
 Figure 2.11
Poverty and Per Capita Income 2014

Above average income and poverty

Below average income

Above average poverty

Below average poverty

Below average income and poverty Above average income
 Figure 2.12
Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality 2014
ISSUES IN EMPIRICAL ANALYSES

• MEASUREMENT

• VARIABLE LINKAGE

• IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP?
ISSUES IF THERE IS AN EMPIRICAL
RELATIONSHIP

• CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

• SPURIOUS RELATIONSHIP
 Figure 2.6
Spurious Relations With State Population

r = .96 r = .88
 Importance of Measurement

• Rates, not raw numbers

• Rates have numerators and
denominators
• Also control for inflation over time
• Proper linkage of “cause” and
“effect”
 Obese Adults and Teen Births
in Millions

r = .99
 Christians and Teen Births
in Millions

r = .98
 MOTION GRAPHS

• ANIMATED SCATTERPLOTS

• ADD INFORMATION ABOUT TIME